AI-led demand overwhelms ASML’s 2027, 2028 supply capacity

Last month, a senior executive from ASML said that the company sold nothing to European customers this past quarter, in what should be a worrying sign for the region as it attempts to catch up with the US and China.
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"But also some strong interest to already place orders for 2029 and sometimes even 2030"
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Anyone know what they're ordering so far out? Presumably production output for whatever is the tech at that time? 2027 tech in 2030 feels wrong.

edit: two posts down, a revelation
 
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Pianomahnn said:
Anyone know what they're ordering so far out? Presumably production output for whatever is the tech at that time? 2027 tech in 2030 feels wrong.
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Could be new stuff but understand that these things are massive and take a long time to build. It is a bit like an airplane: You order it way in advance of when you need it. They don't have these sitting on shelves, each one is custom built for a customer. Also the pipeline is longer than you'd think: Not only do they have to build the new unit and the customer have to get it, but then it is years before the customer has their process using it p and running.

Intel already has their 2nm/18a node hardware. They have for quite some time. However it takes time to take it from "We have an EXE:5000," to "We have a production line churning out 2nm chips." Most of life is not like the software industry where you churn new shit out quickly all the time. It takes a long time to bring new tech to the market, and the things you buy today usually started development many years ago, on system developed even before that.

I mean, if you REALLY want to get down to it, EUV is a 1980s/1990s technology. That's when development started on it. However it took lots and lots of work until 2010 when they first made a customer ready system, and even then it was more of a pre-production thing and it wasn't until 2016 that they really got EUV going out in large numbers. It took that long to work out all the insane details of how to build a system like this and make it work at a commercial scale.
 
gtrguy said:
Watch them suddenly limit the export of said technology for the security of the EU. Everyone is going to start pulling the levers available to them for control.

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I wouldn't be surprised. The US and China are fighting for total control and other markets are going to get brutalized unless they try to slow the drain.
 
Ididar said:
I wouldn't be surprised. The US and China are fighting for total control and other markets are going to get brutalized unless they try to slow the drain.
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Asml do not sell much to China, the Americans have a long list of sanction ready if they would EUV level equipement they do sales older stuff, Taiwan/South Korea should still be their biggest customer not the US or China right now, those 2 (taiwan-south korea) could be 60% of ASML sales.
 
LukeTbk said:
Asml do not sell much to China, the Americans have a long list of sanction ready if they would EUV level equipement they do sales older stuff, Taiwan/South Korea should still be their biggest customer not the US or China right now, those 2 (taiwan-south korea) could be 60% of ASML sales.
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Not what I meant. I mean they're both fighting for total control of AI and the associated hardware. Everyone else is just collateral in that fight right now. The US wants control over all the parts and pieces and so does China. Europe, in this case, could end up as collateral damage unless they do something to insulate themselves. That might mean limiting export so their own businesses don't fail while the others fight. China might not be the one buying but the fight between the US and China means that the purchasing power is ramping up. Europe needs to insulate its own industries. If Its own companies can't buy the equipment because the US and Taiwan/Japan is buying it all up then their own businesses will fail.
 
I can just hear it now…

Europe sanctions ASML for holding a monopoly over the production EUV lithography machines.

ASML: if you don’t like it, feel free to build your own machine. ☺️

(If you haven’t seen a video on the EUV lithography machines that ASML builds, go watch one. They are insanely complicated, to the point of seeming like alien technology.)
 
They do love control and would like to have more of it (US-China) and the US achieve right now to control Taiwan-South korea-SML output quite a bit right now, but as of now Europe can do like the US use Taiwan-South Korea made chips mainly (and that what they do) or buy from ASML what they want to make the best wafer in the world if they want.

US control block in not a single way Euro clients access to the latest TSMC-Samsung wafer technology or ASML for the moment.

Europe like the US do want some sovereignety in advanced chips from Taiwan-South Korea-Japan for similar reason too of course, but they can buy EUV as much as they want, US/China stop them in no way in this, they are purely not putting orders because they do not have the capability to use them, not because of China-USA interference, it is just extremelly hard to turn what ASML do into a 24/7 best in the world wafer maker, about no one in the world can do it outside Taiwan-South Korea.
 
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