AI-led demand overwhelms ASML’s 2027, 2028 supply capacity

Last month, a senior executive from ASML said that the company sold nothing to European customers this past quarter, in what should be a worrying sign for the region as it attempts to catch up with the US and China.
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"But also some strong interest to already place orders for 2029 and sometimes even 2030"
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Anyone know what they're ordering so far out? Presumably production output for whatever is the tech at that time? 2027 tech in 2030 feels wrong.

edit: two posts down, a revelation
 
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Pianomahnn said:
Anyone know what they're ordering so far out? Presumably production output for whatever is the tech at that time? 2027 tech in 2030 feels wrong.
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Could be new stuff but understand that these things are massive and take a long time to build. It is a bit like an airplane: You order it way in advance of when you need it. They don't have these sitting on shelves, each one is custom built for a customer. Also the pipeline is longer than you'd think: Not only do they have to build the new unit and the customer have to get it, but then it is years before the customer has their process using it p and running.

Intel already has their 2nm/18a node hardware. They have for quite some time. However it takes time to take it from "We have an EXE:5000," to "We have a production line churning out 2nm chips." Most of life is not like the software industry where you churn new shit out quickly all the time. It takes a long time to bring new tech to the market, and the things you buy today usually started development many years ago, on system developed even before that.

I mean, if you REALLY want to get down to it, EUV is a 1980s/1990s technology. That's when development started on it. However it took lots and lots of work until 2010 when they first made a customer ready system, and even then it was more of a pre-production thing and it wasn't until 2016 that they really got EUV going out in large numbers. It took that long to work out all the insane details of how to build a system like this and make it work at a commercial scale.
 
gtrguy said:
Watch them suddenly limit the export of said technology for the security of the EU. Everyone is going to start pulling the levers available to them for control.

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I wouldn't be surprised. The US and China are fighting for total control and other markets are going to get brutalized unless they try to slow the drain.
 
Ididar said:
I wouldn't be surprised. The US and China are fighting for total control and other markets are going to get brutalized unless they try to slow the drain.
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Asml do not sell much to China, the Americans have a long list of sanction ready if they would EUV level equipement they do sales older stuff, Taiwan/South Korea should still be their biggest customer not the US or China right now, those 2 (taiwan-south korea) could be 60% of ASML sales.
 
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