DRAM Pricing Jumps 50%, Only 70% of Orders Getting Filled

ChatGPT said:

Yes — CXMT / China creating a historic memory glut is the correct topic. I found the exact video: “China Will Create A Historic Memory Glut.” YouTube

The short version​

The video's thesis is that China's rapid expansion of memory-chip manufacturing—especially CXMT for DRAM and YMTC for NAND—could eventually break the current memory shortage and trigger a huge global oversupply.


The argument goes roughly like this:

• Memory is a brutally cyclical industry. When prices are high, manufacturers add capacity. Eventually supply catches demand, then exceeds it, and prices can collapse.
• Right now we're in an unusual AI-driven memory shortage. Samsung, SK hynix and Micron are making enormous profits because AI servers are consuming huge quantities of DRAM/HBM/NAND.
• China is building memory capacity at the same time. CXMT has become a legitimate fourth DRAM manufacturer, while YMTC is expanding NAND. CXMT's global DRAM share was already around 7.7% at the end of 2025. Vertical+1
• The crucial difference is that China isn't necessarily making capacity decisions purely according to normal market economics. Semiconductor self-sufficiency is strategically important to Beijing, so China can tolerate investment/payback periods that conventional Western companies might avoid.
• If CXMT keeps adding fabs and eventually reaches production volumes comparable with the established players, it doesn't need to become #1 to disrupt the market. Adding a fourth major supplier to a three-company oligopoly could dramatically change pricing dynamics.
• And because DRAM is essentially a commodity, once enough supply appears, customers have enormous leverage and prices can fall very rapidly.

Why CXMT is particularly interesting​

CXMT isn't some theoretical future company anymore.


It has gone from being a loss-making Chinese memory startup to a substantial DRAM producer. Its 2025 revenue reportedly jumped 155.6%, and its Q1 2026 revenue was up 719% YoY. R40


It also isn't necessarily competing by simply selling memory for pennies. That's an important nuance: reports indicate CXMT's DRAM prices have been only 5–10% below Samsung/SK hynix/Micron, and some Chinese server DDR5 has even reportedly been priced above comparable Samsung products. Vertical+1


So the potential threat is capacity, not necessarily “China dumps dirt-cheap RAM on the world.”

The really important part​

The video is essentially making a future-cycle argument, not saying:

“CXMT is going to flood the market tomorrow.”

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In fact, current data suggests we're still in a shortage, and some analysts explicitly argue that CXMT's added output won't be enough to eliminate it in the near term. One recent estimate says CXMT will contribute about 11.3% of global net new DRAM bit supply in 2026, while the overall market would still remain undersupplied. XenoSpectrum


The concern is what happens after everyone responds to today's shortage.


You get this sequence:


AI boom → memory shortage → huge profits → everyone expands capacity → China expands aggressively → capacity arrives → supply catches demand → supply exceeds demand → memory prices collapse.


And memory companies have historically been extremely vulnerable to this cycle.

Why this could be especially painful for Micron/Samsung/SK hynix​

Their current profitability is partly based on scarcity.


If CXMT eventually adds enough commodity DRAM capacity, the established companies may have to:

• cut prices,
• reduce utilization,
• delay/cancel expansion,
• accept lower margins,
• or shift more capacity toward higher-value HBM.

That last point is important: HBM is somewhat different from ordinary DDR4/DDR5 DRAM. CXMT's ability to compete in advanced HBM is still much less mature, so China's first major impact is more likely to be on commodity DRAM, rather than immediately destroying NVIDIA's HBM supply chain. Vertical

My takeaway from the video's thesis​

I think the most useful way to interpret it is:


The video isn't really predicting that CXMT will “win” the memory market. It's predicting that China's success in building memory capacity could make the memory market dramatically more competitive—and potentially create the next giant memory-price crash.


There's a legitimate counterargument, though: China may simply absorb its own production. Chinese AI companies, cloud providers, PC makers and electronics manufacturers have enormous domestic demand, so CXMT could expand substantially without immediately dumping all that memory onto Western markets. Current evidence actually suggests Chinese demand is helping absorb CXMT's output. XenoSpectrum+1


So I'd characterize the video's thesis as plausible but timing-dependent, rather than “CXMT will definitely cause a glut.”


The fascinating question is not whether CXMT can make DRAM. It clearly can. The question is how many bits China ultimately decides to manufacture—and whether domestic demand can absorb them.

Sources

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