I doubt they'd do it alone. It's more likely they'd partner up / buy into a minor player that still exists in Taiwan (Nanya/Winbond/PSMC) and pump a tonne of RND into memory to license out the process. It wouldn't be a short term plan, more like a 6-10 year thing. With the big 3 looking to squeeze huge margins out of everyone until 2030 and beyond, the financial incentive is there to create their own alternative. (If the AI bubble pops then prices would return to a more normal state.)
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DRAM Pricing Jumps 50%, Only 70% of Orders Getting Filled
- Thread starter erek
- Start date
SpaceX is with Intel for the logic side, I imagine you must yes. Them not having any equivalent for the memory wafer make it very doubtful they will pull it off any time soon.
That said if the more likely to do it (the hyperscaler) that put Apple in a less stressful situation with the upcoming big 4.
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even if they use LLMs to handle the designing and informing the manufacturing?
yes even if, because it's the whole 'running an actual fab/factory' part that seems implausible here
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“DRAM price surge lifts Samsung and Micron as SK Hynix loses share
Samsung Electronics and Micron Technology are benefiting more strongly from rising conventional DRAM and NAND prices than SK Hynix, whose focus on high-bandwidth memory (HBM) has slowed the expansion of its traditional DRAM business despite its leadership in...”
https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20260805PD224/dram-samsung-micron-price-sk-hynix.html
If the AI bubble doesn't pop (government meddling), memory prices could stay extortionate for another 6-10 years. Apple has gone its own way in the past, splitting from suppliers and making their own alternative. Nvidia screwed them and intel started being run by the accountants so became stuck at 14nm and screwed them, so they successfully converted their ARM mobile chips into desktop chips.
Now that DRAM is being sold at extortionate prices and they're looking to be screwed for the next 6+ years, there is a very strong financial incentive to cut costs by designing their own RAM. Keeping with their current strategy they'd partner with a manufacturer. Taiwan has long been trying to increase its marketshare in the memory manufacturing business. And Japan would love to get back into it. It really isn't far fetched that they would look to create their own alternative if the conditions were right. Of course it would probably be a minimum of 4-6 years before anything would come of it. And 8+ years before it took its final shape.
They do designing, not manufacturing - you're talking apples and oranges - and there's a reason AMD dropped its fabs, Nvidia has no fabs, and Intel is being held behind by its fabs - because manufacturing is a completely different and expensive ball game from just design (also a reason why there used to be so many memory manufactures and now there are basically just 3)
I'm not saying they would manufacture it. I'm saying they would partner with a smaller manufacturer and bring them up. But this is all speculation and probably only has a 30% chance of happening.
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- Dec 19, 2005
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“Announces $10.7B Investment in Fab5A, Aims for 10 nm-Class EUV DRAM
by Nomad76 Today, 12:04 Discuss (3 Comments)Nanya Technology Board of Directors announced on August 5 that the company has launched its largest investment program, committing up to NT$346.6 billion (around $10.7 billion) to its Fab5A facility through 2026-2029. The project covers 10 nm-class processes from 1b through 1e nodes and introduces EUV lithography. Nanya has also increased its 2026 capital expenditures budget by 34% to NT$69.7 billion (around $2.16 billion). The extra NT$17.7 billion is going toward advance payments for equipment to keep Fab5A on schedule. The production roadmap has wafer starts being produced in the second half of 2027, reaching 30,000 wafers per month in 2028 and 35,900 in 2029. The maximum planned capacity is around 45,000 wafers monthly. The 1c pilot production has already begun, while the 1d node is under development and expected to enter pilot production soon. Nanya Fab5A investment, when completed, is estimated at roughly $16 billion, deployed in phases based on market demand.
Commercially, Nanya is having a strong run. July revenue hit NT$43.87 billion (around $1.3 billion), up 49.3% month over month and 719.6% year over year, driven by continued DRAM price increases, particularly sharp gains in DDR4 contract prices. Remember that just a year ago DDR4 module prices overtook DDR5 for the first time, with Nanya among the biggest beneficiaries. Its customers include giants like NVIDIA, Google, Microsoft, Intel, AMD, and Qualcomm, with the future looking great for the Taiwanese company. Its long-term agreements reportedly now cover about 50% of production capacity, with short-term contracts gradually converted into long-term agreements.“
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“SK hynix Invests 54 Trillion Won in Yongin Y2 and Cheongju M17 to Secure Mid-to-Long-Term Production for AI Memory Demand
PRESS RELEASE by btarunr Today, 03:24 Discuss (7 Comments)SK hynix Inc. announced today that it has decided to build new fabs in Yongin and Cheongju to respond to the continuously growing demand for memory in the AI era.
The company approved a total investment of approximately 54 trillion, 35.2 trillion won in Yongin "Y2" fab and 19.1 trillion won in the Cheongju "M17" fab, in a board meeting.
This decision represents execution of the mid-to-long-term investment strategy announced by the company last June. Under its master plan to invest 600 trillion won in the Yongin Semiconductor Cluster and 100 trillion won to expand its Cheongju production base, SK hynix is currently constructing its first fab in Yongin (Y1). With this latest decision, the company is embarking on the construction of subsequent fabs in both Yongin and Cheongju.“
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“SK Hynix to invest $38 billion building new memory chip plants as demand soars
KEY POINTS
- SK Hynix on Friday said it will invest 54 trillion Korean won ($38.1 billion) to build two new memory chip manufacturing plants.
- Memory prices have surged because of short supply and huge demand with investors watching closely for any changes to the supply-demand imbalance.
- SK Hynix said one plant would be located in Yongin called "Y2" and another in Cheongju called "M17."
- SK Hynix on Friday said it will invest 54 trillion Korean won ($38.1 billion) to build two new memory chip manufacturing plants.
- Memory prices have surged because of short supply and huge demand with investors watching closely for any changes to the supply-demand imbalance.
- SK Hynix said one plant would be located in Yongin called "Y2" and another in Cheongju called "M17."“
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“Targets AI Memory Bottleneck with DRAM Talent Push
Notably, beyond chip production, Musk could also be moving to address one of the AI industry’s biggest constraints, memory supply, at Terafab. Tesla has begun recruiting for key positions at Terafab, including a Memory Process Integration Engineer role, according to Wccftech, citing a company job listing.The position, according to Tesla, will focus on end-to-end DRAM process integration, advanced sub-20nm DRAM node development, memory cell optimization, and collaboration across manufacturing and circuit design teams. It will also support the development of emerging memory technologies, including MRAM, RRAM, and 3D DRAM.
Wccftech suggests that the hiring move signals that Terafab is expanding beyond AI logic chips and stepping into advanced memory manufacturing, a strategic push that could intensify competition in a market long dominated by Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron.“
https://www.trendforce.com/news/202...-memory-engineering-hiring-signals-dram-push/
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- Dec 19, 2005
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“Citi cuts Micron stock target, sees memory chip prices peaking in 2Q27
Investing.com - Citi slashed its price target on Micron Technology to $1,150 from $1,400 while keeping a Buy rating, citing a more tempered outlook for DRAM and NAND pricing heading into next year.
The bank trimmed its target by applying an 8x price-to-earnings multiple on revised calendar-year 2027 EPS estimates, down from the prior 10x multiple.“
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/citi-cuts-micron-stock-target-124820288.html
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- Nov 11, 2012
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RAM prices aren't going to get better for a few years. The big "AI" bubble will pop (because it's not really AI), but the "AI" companies will still be locked in with the new RAM (because it's more profitable for the "AI" companies and the RAM companies). They'll end up selling off their "older" RAM to smaller businesses in a similar model to software as a service (SAAS). Except it's "AI" with bundled hardware. It'll be cheaper than buying and using up tokens from datacenters, but still expensive. It's the only way they can compete against China's open weight model. Basically, there will be smaller "AI" bubbles, and those won't necessarily pop, which will elongate the RAMpocalypse. The idea is to be the middle man for hardware, hoarding up until the demand outstrips supply, then selling.
Extremelly low 8x price to earnings multiple, the most gentle bubble of all time....
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“Chinese CXMT Memory Chips Hit 8800 MT/s On AM5, Signaling A Fast-Maturing Alternative To Established DDR5 Vendors
This time, it's the 2x 16 GB configuration that was pushed to nearly 9000 MT/s on an X870E motherboard.
Colorful iGame Shadow II 32 GB Memory Kit With CXMT DDR5 Chips Achieve 8800 MT/s on X870E Vulcan W OC
CXMT DDR5 is maturing fast, and we have seen how quickly the DDR5 memory modules based on CXMT DDR5 chips reached over 8000 MT/s on multiple platforms. As vendors prepare for CXMT-based DDR5 memory modules for their platforms, we see previous records being broken. If you remember, a few weeks ago, Colorful was able to achieve a solid 8600 MT/s using its iGame Shadow II DDR5 memory kit.”https://wccftech.com/cxmt-based-colorful-ddr5-memory-pushed-to-8800-mt-s-on-am5-platform/
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- Dec 19, 2005
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"RAMageddon has reportedly hit a new benchmark. Halo Studios did not fire a bunch of people after shipping the remake (yet). Sometimes piracy can help spread the word for a breakout indie hit. That’s right, a wild Kotaku Checkpoint has appeared for August 7, 2026, where it’s been a long week and I’m craving a $20 burrito. Let’s wrap up some loose ends and get out of here!
The ongoing shortages have been reported for months, with AI companies buying up parts for data centers in a war to see who can turn the internet into a lawless cyberhacking hellscape first. This has forced other manufacturers whose products rely on memory and storage components, like gaming hardware makers, to keep jacking up their prices. No one expects this madness to end in 2027, with some analysts saying prices could keep going up into 2028.
The solution? Start selling hardware with less RAM"
https://kotaku.com/the-ram-is-all-gone-folks-2000722562
Hope you’re not looking to buy RAM in the next 18 months
It’s all gone, according to a new report by DigiTimes (via Tweaktown). The Taiwanese outlet, citing industry insiders, claims that Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron have all sold out of their DRAM and high bandwidth memory (HBM) through 2027. Everyone called dibs. There’s no additional supply. Game over, man.The ongoing shortages have been reported for months, with AI companies buying up parts for data centers in a war to see who can turn the internet into a lawless cyberhacking hellscape first. This has forced other manufacturers whose products rely on memory and storage components, like gaming hardware makers, to keep jacking up their prices. No one expects this madness to end in 2027, with some analysts saying prices could keep going up into 2028.
The solution? Start selling hardware with less RAM"
https://kotaku.com/the-ram-is-all-gone-folks-2000722562
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"The RAM crisis just hit a new low — here's my advice on what to do based on 30 years of writing about GPUs, memory and PC components
It may be wise to get in ahead of a potential graphics card rush
It appears that the RAM crisis is getting worse than ever as we head further into 2026. I've been closely watching and reporting on memory price hikes — which were soon followed by other PC component cost increases — since this crisis first began, and the worrying thing is, I can't recall a gloomier stream of negative news than I've witnessed over the past few weeks.
That includes Samsung recently declaring that the RAM crisis is going to become more severe in 2027, and rumors that even mighty Apple is floundering in its attempt to secure new RAM supplies from China (as other notebook makers consider this alternative route to the three main memory chip giants: Micron, Samsung and SK Hynix)."
https://www.techradar.com/computing...f-writing-about-gpus-memory-and-pc-components
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Possibly the only damn thing that's good to come of the RAMpocolypse... Microsoft finally cleaning up their crap code.
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The second hand market might be the place where we end up dwelling. Buying "old" shit DDR5 that's already been replaced with DDR6, 7, 8 and whatever. Games are gonna stagnate a bit, some consoles will likely die. Assuming my Intel rigs survive for a while, it's gonna be like 5 years before I finally migrate to a DDR5 platform that is affordable. Maybe I can pickup a 9800X3D for dirt cheap then and finally get to play 2027/2028 game titles... lol. Thank god I am largely content with the performance I already have.
Bingo. You can’t just fire up a fab like it’s a Bob the Builder weekend home reno. There’s a very good reason why most chip designers have gone fabless. It’s complicated and capital-intensive requiring highly specialized machines that only a select few companies are even capable of creating. It’s also the reason why it takes so much time for supply to get online despite the high prices, notwithstanding the incumbents concerned they’ll get burned by investing in a trend that may not last (which Apple also can’t foresee).
You also have the margin question. Apple likes operating at high margins. The stock price is dependent on it. That type of manufacturing is lower margin than Apple’s core business. It’s the same reason I was always skeptical of the Apple Car, because auto manufacturers run at profit margins way lower than Apple does, whereas Apple could just stick where they specialize (software) and partner with car companies to get their software in every car instead.
I'm not saying they would manufacture it. I'm saying they would partner with a smaller manufacturer and bring them up. But this is all speculation and probably only has a 30% chance of happening.
Which smaller manufacturer would that be? There are three primary memory OEMs that have almost the entire market, and the only plausible fourth player is in China, and Apple doesn’t even know if they’ll be allowed to use their product at all in the US let alone partner with them as a primary investor in their business. I would say the probability for that scenario it’s far less than 30%.
This right here. People are really overusing the word “bubble”.
Games have already stagnated for a few years now, and I don’t see anything coming out that is really going to push hardware to its limits. The gold standard for demanding gaming even today is Cyberpunk which launched in December of 2020, so in five and a half years we haven’t seen anything really push the graphical envelope beyond where it already was.
Likewise, hardware has been stagnant as well. The 40-series to 50-series change yielded little in tangible improvement, and AMD launched a flagship product that actually lagged the rasterization performance of their previous flagship. My 5800x3D is still shredding every game I throw at it with no visible indication it’s leaving much on the table. Productivity CPUs have improved some, but even companies like Google are saying their GPU stacks at the datacenter level from several years ago are still delivering adequate performance.
I suppose the only “benefit” is that your hardware will go the distance for longer than it did in the past. I still remember the era where every new release felt like an entirely different ball game. That era is not this one, and given the prices we’re dealing with, maybe that’s ok in the short term, although stagnation is really never ultimately desirable.
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“RAMageddon? 2027 Memory Capacity Reportedly Sold OutEditorDavid 7 hours ago | 47 |
| IGN reports: [A] new report suggests that all three memory manufacturers — Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron — have collectively sold through their 2027 memory manufacturing capacity to, you guessed it, AI companies. According to a report from Digitimes and spotted by TweakTown, all DRAM and HBM capacity has been sold through for 2027, with no further supply planned. (The companies themselves have not yet confirmed this to be the case.) Of course, that only means that retail prices are going to go up even further in the near future. Selling through all the capacity for next year would be bad enough for consumers, but the problem is that most of the companies buying up this capacity have done so through long-term purchasing agreements, essentially pre-ordering memory that hasn't even been manufactured yet over a five-year term. Unless more capacity opens up somewhere in the next few years, it's hard to imagine that RAM will become more affordable and less scarce any time soon. It's not just memory that's affected. According to that Digitimes report, NAND storage is growing in demand too. Luckily, NAND capacity hasn't been completely absorbed, because there are more companies supplying the stuff. But it's not exactly hard to see that SSDs have been growing steadily more expensive over the last six months or so.” |
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“Micron reportedly offers pennies on the dollar for Crucial RAM return, only offers to reimburse original MSRP despite it being only 37% of market value — chipmaker later reverses course with a better solution
Crucial RMA scandal following the brand's exit from the consumer marketMicron used to produce some of the best RAM available to mainstream users through its Crucial brand. Despite the company's exit from the consumer market through its now-defunct Crucialbrand, Micron had pledged to continue honoring warranties on existing Crucial products. A recent case on Reddit, however, highlights ongoing challenges with Micron's warranty process, where it reportedly offered a customer a ludicrouspayout for an RMA. Only after further communication did Micron provide an improved offer. Another user also chimed in with a similar story about an SSD return with Micron. We have reached out to Micron for comment.“
https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-com...-later-reverses-course-with-a-better-solution
Nanya/Winbond/PSMC
This wouldn’t be a short term solution, probably taking up to 10 years. But Apple has played the long game multiple times before in replacing suppliers that screw them.
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"DRAM Manufacturers Hold All The Leverage With $38 Billion In Advance Payments, But This Dominance Has An Expiration Date; 2029 Could Decide The Balance Of Power
Companies like Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron want to pocket these earnings before pricing stabilizes / Image made using Gemini
A seismic shift in the DRAM industry has enabled major players like Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron to move away from their volatile and razor-thin margins and enforce a more stable business model that involves locking in long-term supply contracts and strict price floors through 2030. One analysis reveals that these manufacturers are sitting on $38 billion worth of deals, holding immense leverage over customers, but this position of power won’t last forever.
Samsung, Micron, and SK hynix have set up a financial position that won’t last forever as time moves on
The DRAM supply to a multitude of customers has been locked through 2030, with DigiTimes reporting that the $38 billion sum protects Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron until their clients' procurement leverage returns. An interesting revelation of these contracts is that long-term agreements (LTAs) were always in place, but on this occasion, customers are now setting up payments to secure their memory supply."https://wccftech.com/dram-manufacturers-38-billion-dominance-2029/
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Lol, yeah, I'm set for another 10 years. The quality of software and games has hit a peak since AI has come to the forefront. I think I had minimal upgrades from 2013 to 2023, but kicked it up a notch over the last 3 years.
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That is some serious garbage deals. Micron, and any other RAM manufacturer, at the minimum should offer current market price refund so the user can purchase replacement RAM.
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Yeah, one reason I think everyone should keep an entire spare PC right now, expect atleast some companies to try this fuckery when you need an RMA.
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“Microsoft Currently Falling Short On Its Promise To Make Windows 11 More RAM Efficient, As Built-In Weather App Consumes Nearly 20% Of 8GB Memory
Systems with 8GB RAM have zero chances of thriving if this persists
Windows 11 and its apps being RAM guzzlers isn’t a surprising revelation, but Microsoft has committed to making the OS as efficient as possible for systems housing 8GB of RAM. Unfortunately, that progress is yet to be witnessed as the company’s Weather app can consume a chock-full of memory. This is exceptionally frustrating for those who are trying to find ways to make Windows 11 work with a minimum amount of RAM or those who don’t know their way around the platform.
The Weather app in macOS consumes five times less memory and isn’t riddled with ads, Windows 11's app can sometimes reach 1.6GB of usage“
https://wccftech.com/windows-11-weather-app-high-ram-usage/
I wonder if the app was written with AI taking the least efficient route possible.
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What's a chock-full of memory, exactly?
Who knows. The writers there only have a passing familiarity with English.
Prince Valiant
Gawd
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Weather software needing 200MB of memory on MacOS isn't impressive but with Windows being 600MB - 1.6GB~ I suppose they have a lot of leeway
.Everyone's (including Microsoft) talking about 8GB meanwhile Microsoft's own system requirements, that they made and wrote and haven't changed, list 4GB. They should be optimizing to that, as that would then optimize for 8GB as well, secondarily (and my poor, cheap, but was only $100 new 5 years ago, 4GB calibration laptop 
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)