• Some users have recently had their accounts hijacked. It seems that the now defunct EVGA forums might have compromised your password there and seems many are using the same PW here. We would suggest you UPDATE YOUR PASSWORD and TURN ON 2FA for your account here to further secure it. None of the compromised accounts had 2FA turned on.
    Once you have enabled 2FA, your account will be updated soon to show a badge, letting other members know that you use 2FA to protect your account. This should be beneficial for everyone that uses FSFT.

Mega I.P.O. Frenzy Could Be a Harbinger of a Stock Bubble

Ididar said:
Nope. SpaceX has the valuation it does because of the folding of xAI into SpaceX. If he hadn't done that then the valuation wouldn't be anywhere near what it is. People banging on about the space achievements are missing the point. Yes, what SpaceX did is pretty impressive but the valuation isn't about launching rockets. They're betting on AI just like they're betting on AI for every other company. All the eggs are going in one basket. My bet is that he's using the investment in AI to grow Starlink and SpaceX rocket stuff so even if the value of the company tanks because he loses the AI race he'll have built something out of it. A decent motivation but I wouldn't be sinking my money into it. Like others have said, it is likely donating money to the cause and not investing at this stage.
Click to expand...
That's a good point about xAI, but based on the comments, focus in this thread and actual P/L, you have the xAI is subsizdizing SpaceX backwards. As a model, Grok is ranked around 40th in reasoning - well behind the rest. SpaceX is profitable, making something like $13B / yr - every dollar and then some is being burned by xAI, but it's a drop in the bucket compared to what OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Microsoft, Fakebook, etc are spening. However, xAI just bought Cursor so they're still fighting.

Not to derail this thread, but Chinese companies are distilling (cheap copying) the best models and there may reach a point of diminishing returns. Recent news is that Microsoft is trying to switch to a Chinese model (Deepseek).
Those waiting on an AI bubble are going to be waiting a lifetime. Every day it gets more capable and the large tech companies keep building more infrastructure. Single companies will pop, but AI will continue.
Buy agnostic companies like memory stocks or ETFs like SOXXs, FLKR, ASML (litho monopoly), MU (Micron <- Idaho based), SK Hynix or Samsung. They will go up regardless who is winning.
 
Balkroth said:
Honestly you talk about all the bubbles as your friend kram, I'd say you are irrational trying to get people to believe in every thing
Click to expand...

Bubbles don't really occur/pop when so many are negative and screaming 'it's a bubble', as with AI - they usually occur/pop when almost entirely no negative sentiment exists. But ever since The Big Short came out, everyone wants to be Michael Burry (who himself has been far more wrong than being right just once, that one time).

Edit: And to add to this - AI has military/government applications - this isn't just some 'Tickle Me Elmo' like consumer device we're talking about - thus the military/government has a vested interest in its continuance/development - which includes massive datacenter buildouts ATM - if you thought the markets could remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent - how do you think you'll fare going toe-to-toe with the military/government and their pocketbooks?
 
Last edited:
There is no way on earth I'm buying any chips directly now, nibbling some covered call ETFs on pull backs sure, but done with single stocks for the life of me, except as very very short term trades. Blue chip, analyst targets none of that matters anymore, it is all vibe and momentum driven. As a PC hardware enthusiast, prices of DRAM and storage sicken me..
 
undertaker2k8 said:
Blue chip, analyst targets none of that matters anymore, it is all vibe and momentum driven
Click to expand...

that's the way it's always been...the stock market runs on feelings...that's why you see some companies who come out with incredible earnings reports and the stock tanks the next day because investors were expecting good news and they wanted great news (bigger profits)
 
polonyc2 said:
that's the way it's always been...the stock market runs on feelings...that's why you see some companies who come out with incredible earnings reports and the stock tanks the next day because investors were expecting good news and they wanted great news (bigger profits)
Click to expand...
Always? No, irrationality and exuberance for the AI trade is at the dotcom insanity levels. What is happening now isn't run of the mill market idiosyncrasies.
 
undertaker2k8 said:
Always? No, irrationality and exuberance for the AI trade is at the dotcom insanity levels. What is happening now isn't run of the mill market idiosyncrasies.
Click to expand...

AI is built on real fundamentals...dot coms were built on hope...if you believe AI is just a fad and the bubble will burst then you are saying that Google, Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, Nvidia, Amazon etc will all collapse and fail
 
polonyc2 said:
AI is built on real fundamentals...dot coms were built on hope...if you believe AI is just a fad and the bubble will burst then you are saying that Google, Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, Nvidia, Amazon etc will all collapse and fail
Click to expand...
Meta and Msft stock have fallen hard due to AI, Apple has chosen to sit it out for the most part, Amazon hasn't seen any direct ROI from AI nor has Google search become much better because of it. Tesla's FSD has improved sure and of course Nvida sees the benefits as the primary chip mfg for this. If AI fever would go away, most of these companies besides Nvidia would see their balance sheets and likely even stock go up.
 
undertaker2k8 said:
That is a false premise and it's AI that will largely be commoditized and incorporated into existing major players' platforms. Time will tell ofc and all I can do for now is to build up major cash and treasuries positions when the AI crash inevitably happens, if AI companies charged actual costs and made profits, the AI kills SaaS bs would die tomorrow but the markets can stay irrational for a long time and I need to stay solvent..
Also keeping the indexes calm and savaging individual names and entire sectors on whim is what Goldman et all have perfected now with absolutely no fear of oversight or investigations if they go too far.
Click to expand...

As I've said many times on this forum, and in this thread, that's the market's opinion, not necessarily mine. I think the flaw in the thinking is that it discounts how corporations buy software. Most of it as predicated on ass-covering, and no one wants to go in front of the board and explain the reason they had a major failure is that they "vibe coded" their software. That said, the market is probably correct in discounting what these companies were previously worth based on what they're likely able to charge customers in the future because the value proposition has changed for some of these companies. Others will adapt AI features and supercharge their product's benefit. No one knows who's benefiting and who's not at this point, so investors have gone from "benefit of the doubt" to "show me", and I think that's rational.

Regarding AI charging actual costs and being profitable, Anthropic is now profitable and charge actual costs. 80% of their customers are enterprise, in sharp contrast to OpenAI. These are different business models, but there will be adaption as the space evolves.
 
1.1.2.3.5... said:
I am up 26% this year in indexes and sold it all. Moving it to high dividend funds, not because I am a dividend investor, but because the companies in those funds are solidly profitable and for my own sanity I need to see that for it to make sense to me.
Click to expand...

I think that's a good strategy. Personal finance is personal, and you'll seldom get into difficulty with a good, diversified portfolio of reliable dividend payers. I have a chunk of my portfolio set aside for dividend payers as well for that specific reason. I know the return might be less in the long run, but it puts a brake on the overall volatility and the reliable cash flows are a psychological benefit.
 
undertaker2k8 said:
Cash, I'd have said some blue chip software names even a couple of months ago but I truly believe now that hedgies could take companies like CRM, INTU, ADBE to near 0 in the short term and may even half MSFT from here. GLD may be, BTC is a cluster too right now and directionless, real estate is dumping all over but certain pockets like Palo Alto where the AI owner class lives. You can always buy SNDK or MU , they may go to 10k a share before popping though 🤣 and HDDs also back in fashion, STX at 1100 , fucking Seagate...OpenAI/Anthropic IPOs and guaranteed subsequent crashes are the only thing that can bring sanity back to markets after hopefully an 80% haircut in semis and AI memes.
Click to expand...

We literally had a crash in a lot of these names in 2022. Remember when Nvidia lost 70% of it's value? People act like this was a long time ago. I mean Oracle got slammed 50% LAST YEAR. That doesn't happen in a bubble.
 
undertaker2k8 said:
Always? No, irrationality and exuberance for the AI trade is at the dotcom insanity levels. What is happening now isn't run of the mill market idiosyncrasies.
Click to expand...

I would argue we're not even close to dot com insanity levels. Not even in the same league of behaviours. Investors have shown themselves to have a healthy dose of skepticism that didn't exist during dot com. We had a crash in 2022 before rebounding. We've had stocks like Oracle that got cut in half last year despite huge investments ongoing in AI. Dot Com was completely different in that regard. You had people falling over themselves to buy stakes in companies that barely had a business model. We don't have that right now.
 
HockeyJon said:
I would argue we're not even close to dot com insanity levels. Not even in the same league of behaviours. Investors have shown themselves to have a healthy dose of skepticism that didn't exist during dot com. We had a crash in 2022 before rebounding. We've had stocks like Oracle that got cut in half last year despite huge investments ongoing in AI. Dot Com was completely different in that regard. You had people falling over themselves to buy stakes in companies that barely had a business model. We don't have that right now.
Click to expand...
And I'm sure you think SNDK from 28 -> 2100 in a year and INTC quadrupling on tweets and one barely positive ER after years of non performance within 2 months are not symptoms of irrationality and manipulation? Agree to disagree there...and does anyone here really want 64 GB of regular desktop ram to cost a grand? and think that is sustainable long term?
 
Last edited:
undertaker2k8 said:
And I'm sure you think SNDK from 28 -> 2100 in a year and INTC quadrupling on tweets and one barely positive ER after years of non performance within 2 months are not symptoms of irrationality and manipulation? Agree to disagree there...and does anyone here really want 64 GB of regular desktop ram to cost a grand? and think that is sustainable long term?
Click to expand...

SNDK based on RSI is currently the most overvalued stock of all time, and we can cherry-pick examples, but the difference between now and Dotcom is that people aren't rushing in to take on debt to invest in pre-revenue AI companies like they did in Dotcom where a company all of a sudden attracted an investing frenzy because they said they were going to make a website. Also, investors now are looking for excuses to sell. Oracle getting slammed 50% last year has no Dotcom equivalent example, and it's not the only company that's taking a hit. You don't see that in bubbles. Investors have been proceeding logically, it's just the revenue growth rate of these companies has exploded.

In any case, getting back to companies like SNDK, you have a complete re-rating of the memory sector and what investors are deciding these companies are worth based on where they see the future moving. Memory companies historically weren't given high multiples because people knew the business was cyclical. The discussion going on right now is that there might be a structural change in demand due to AI buildouts for not only training, but general usage. It's the same reason why the narrative changed on CPUs vs GPUs. Remember a few years ago when no one cared about CPUs anymore. Now we know they're a factor in the new technology, so you're seeing a re-rating of companies making CPUs, and that's also helping lift Intel, which you cited (not to mention that company is now backed by US taxpayers).

By contrast, if you want to point out SNDK, the current forward P/E of SNDK is around 11-12. I'll also point out one of its peers, Micron, is currently also trading with a forward P/E ratio of around 10. That's still well below the S&P500 average. They're making more money, but investors are still proceeding with a comparatively skeptical forward P/E. That's not bubble behaviour.
 
HockeyJon said:
SNDK based on RSI is currently the most overvalued stock of all time, and we can cherry-pick examples, but the difference between now and Dotcom is that people aren't rushing in to take on debt to invest in pre-revenue AI companies like they did in Dotcom where a company all of a sudden attracted an investing frenzy because they said they were going to make a website. Also, investors now are looking for excuses to sell. Oracle getting slammed 50% last year has no Dotcom equivalent example, and it's not the only company that's taking a hit. You don't see that in bubbles. Investors have been proceeding logically, it's just the revenue growth rate of these companies has exploded.

In any case, getting back to companies like SNDK, you have a complete re-rating of the memory sector and what investors are deciding these companies are worth based on where they see the future moving. Memory companies historically weren't given high multiples because people knew the business was cyclical. The discussion going on right now is that there might be a structural change in demand due to AI buildouts for not only training, but general usage. It's the same reason why the narrative changed on CPUs vs GPUs. Remember a few years ago when no one cared about CPUs anymore. Now we know they're a factor in the new technology, so you're seeing a re-rating of companies making CPUs, and that's also helping lift Intel, which you cited (not to mention that company is now backed by US taxpayers).

By contrast, if you want to point out SNDK, the current forward P/E of SNDK is around 11-12. I'll also point out one of its peers, Micron, is currently also trading with a forward P/E ratio of around 10. That's still well below the S&P500 average. They're making more money, but investors are still proceeding with a comparatively skeptical forward P/E. That's not bubble behaviour.
Click to expand...
Forward PEs based on a one time peak demand are meaningless. The overnight pump on INTC just proves my point..INTC has a negative PE for chrissake!
 
undertaker2k8 said:
Forward PEs based on a one time peak demand are meaningless. The overnight pump on INTC just proves my point..INTC has a negative PE for chrissake!
Click to expand...

We don't know it's one-time, that's the point. What do you want investors to do, not value the company based on their earnings? Recall Nvidia was "just a gaming company" until a few years ago, and then fell 70% because they were "absolutely overstretched" at their P/E, and then their revenue exploded and the stock became cheaper as it went up in price. By the way, they're still giving the memory manufacturers a modest forward P/E, so they are adjusting for the prospect that things slow down.

The overnight pump on INTC doesn't prove anything. INTC is up because Apple announced they're partnering with them to use 18A to make at least a portion of their new M-Series of chips. That's a substantial announcement, it's not up for no reason. Not only did Intel gain a premium, high volume customer, but it sends a signal to the rest of the market that Intel's fabs are good enough that Apple's willing to commit to using them. That's a pretty huge change. Negative P/E is not what defines the value of a company on the stock market. Investors are not looking at what was, they're projecting what things are going to be.
 
HockeyJon said:
We don't know it's one-time, that's the point. What do you want investors to do, not value the company based on their earnings? Recall Nvidia was "just a gaming company" until a few years ago, and then fell 70% because they were "absolutely overstretched" at their P/E, and then their revenue exploded and the stock became cheaper as it went up in price. By the way, they're still giving the memory manufacturers a modest forward P/E, so they are adjusting for the prospect that things slow down.

The overnight pump on INTC doesn't prove anything. INTC is up because Apple announced they're partnering with them to use 18A to make at least a portion of their new M-Series of chips. That's a substantial announcement, it's not up for no reason. Not only did Intel gain a premium, high volume customer, but it sends a signal to the rest of the market that Intel's fabs are good enough that Apple's willing to commit to using them. That's a pretty huge change. Negative P/E is not what defines the value of a company on the stock market. Investors are not looking at what was, they're projecting what things are going to be.
Click to expand...
If you think Intel is valued fairly at present, we're definitely not going to agree.
It's worth may be 50-60, AMD is worth may be 250.
https://invezz.com/za/news/2026/06/...ng-valued-as-amd-or-tsmc-but-its-neither-yet/
Good luck, they may still push chip valuations even higher before things come down.
 
undertaker2k8 said:
If you think Intel is valued fairly at present, we're definitely not going to agree.
It's worth may be 50-60, AMD is worth may be 250.
https://invezz.com/za/news/2026/06/...ng-valued-as-amd-or-tsmc-but-its-neither-yet/
Good luck, they may still push chip valuations even higher before things come down.
Click to expand...

How did you come up with that number for the fair value of Intel and AMD? Based on what fundamental analysis?

Remember when Nvidia got hammered by 70% in 2022? Plenty of people said it was overvalued, that there was no way they could grow into that. Then what happened? I don't currently own a position in either INTC or AMD, but I'm willing to say the market might not be completely stupid. They might be, but they might not be, we don't know. Things are very much in flux with the current tech climate. What I do know for sure is this isn't even close to Dotcom levels. The Nasdaq almost doubled in less than a year from 1999 to 2000 before the crash. We're not even close to that level. Just because equities have moved higher doesn't automatically mean everything's a bubble. A lot of these asset classes are being re-rated in real time because the technology and demand for it is changing quickly, which is why valuations are whipsawing the way they are.
 
Interesting take: https://www.techspot.com/article/3139-the-reason-nvidia-abandoned-gamers/

The other part of the long hardware trade is the circular financing and dubious accounting that is bevoming painfully obvious.

On a related note, why is Nvidia raising 20b in debt? They have orders of magnitude more cash on their books.

Also, for AMD specifically, look at the charts every big spike is marked by a 50+% drawn down, it went from 200 in March to 550 today, that kind of spike has always had a mean reversion.

Of course all of this is fed by the short software long hardware trade (Adobe is being displaced by AI for 5 years now, it's earnings never got the memo...).
 
Last edited:
It’s now serving me up ads for WSJ articles to get anyone and everyone to empty their bank accounts to buy AI stock. I’d be surprised if the crash is further than 12 months out.

IMG_0406.png
 
Last edited:
zehoo said:
It’s now serving me up ads for WSJ articles to get anyone and everyone to empty their bank accounts to buy AI stock. I’d be surprised if the crash is further than 12 months out.

View attachment 810484
Click to expand...

Bloody morons. You make a decent chunk of money on the stock market and you turn around and spend it all? Heaven forbid you put it in savings or reinvest the money somewhere stable. Smart enough to make the money but not smart enough to keep it.
 
This is the same bubble hype as Crypto was in the 2020's/21 where everyone took their life savings to dump into scam tokens because they though the one they choose was going to be the next Bitcoin/ETH/what ever useless NFT "community project" as it will blow past DeGods!
 
MrGuvernment said:
This is the same bubble hype as Crypto was in the 2020's/21 where everyone took their life savings to dump into scam tokens because they though the one they choose was going to be the next Bitcoin/ETH/what ever useless NFT "community project" as it will blow past DeGods!
Click to expand...
almost no one put their life saving into scam or legitimate combined NFT tokens, that was extremelly niche product that did not reach 0.04% on the most generous estimate of the world wealth, all NFT combined peaked around the size of an medium S&P500 company.

myzz said:
I wonder if one of the characteristics of a bubble are people saying "This time it's different"...
Click to expand...
One major difference here is how much everyone assume it is a bubble and the fact that it will pop up priced in, Cisco peaked at trading at 240 time its traling p/e ratio and 129 times it price to operating income ratio.

In today world Nvidia is at ~32x trailing P/E, around only 15x forward P/S, micron is around 22 trailing, 19 current price to operating income and under 8, under 8!!! forward price to sale ratio, if it is a bubble (it must be in some ways), it is the cheapest ever. I imagine all bubble are a bit different, that would be the main charactherisc of this one, how cheap, subuded and low exictment it had from investor (or quite excited but fear was deep and generalized to keep things really low valuation).
 
LukeTbk said:
almost no one put their life saving into scam or legitimate combined NFT tokens, that was extremelly niche product that did not reach 0.04% on the most generous estimate of the world wealth, all NFT combined peaked around the size of an medium S&P500 company.


One major difference here is how much everyone assume it is a bubble and the fact that it will pop up priced in, Cisco peaked at trading at 240 time its traling p/e ratio and 129 times it price to operating income ratio.

In today world Nvidia is at ~32x trailing P/E, around only 15x forward P/S, micron is around 22 trailing, 19 current price to operating income and under 8, under 8!!! forward price to sale ratio, if it is a bubble (it must be in some ways), it is the cheapest ever. I imagine all bubble are a bit different, that would be the main charactherisc of this one, how cheap, subuded and low exictment it had from investor (or quite excited but fear was deep and generalized to keep things really low valuation).
Click to expand...
I am not saying the same amount of people who buy into investments and stocks, but it did happen, and more than probably even known, more towards a point of people will blindly "believe the hype" and put money into something with out actually understanding it, or how it could literally ruin them, not realizing "retail" is the escape goat for those who want to sell and already in.
 
LukeTbk said:
One major difference here is how much everyone assume it is a bubble and the fact that it will pop up priced in, Cisco peaked at trading at 240 time its traling p/e ratio and 129 times it price to operating income ratio.

In today world Nvidia is at ~32x trailing P/E, around only 15x forward P/S, micron is around 22 trailing, 19 current price to operating income and under 8, under 8!!! forward price to sale ratio, if it is a bubble (it must be in some ways), it is the cheapest ever. I imagine all bubble are a bit different, that would be the main charactherisc of this one, how cheap, subuded and low exictment it had from investor (or quite excited but fear was deep and generalized to keep things really low valuation).
Click to expand...
Good point. Hopefully true. Counterpoint would be that before this came along things weren't looking great after the post-COVID cash explosion... the AI thing came in at just the right time to "save" everyone. So it's like a cancer patient getting a shot of adrenaline or speed - it doesn't do the same as it would for a healthy(ier) body like the US economy in the 2000s. Even without the COVID thing, the problem with this monetary policy is that each subsequent money injection does less than the last one.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top