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DRAM Pricing Jumps 50%, Only 70% of Orders Getting Filled

LukeTbk said:
https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/stop-saying-half-of-2026-us-datacenter, that vastly exagerated about solid projects, not all of them being built is always something and not that meaningfull.

View attachment 812211View attachment 812212

data center that do not get built neverr got close to have gpu for them, it take 18-36+ months to build, you do not stock GPUs and the HBM on them before starting construction and have need to resale them after (as if Nvidia need to provide refund option.....)

Demand and actual build up is so high, that cancelled project that would have reserved future to be built in the future GPUs get reallocated.

It would not be the first time of course, but the link between Mac Laptop price going up and colussion is far from obvious. Actual attraction toward extremelly expensive HBM and nvidia that pre-buy it....
Click to expand...
The price of DDR5 memory is setting new highs these days as demand badly outstrips supply. In a bid to save money, Meta is recovering legacy DDR4 memory from used servers and is installing it into new machines using its in-house developed Vistara ASIC that enables it to connect old memory modules to its latest servers running AMD EPYC 'Turin' processors that only support DDR5 memory.

https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-com...-legacy-ddr4-2400-with-cutting-edge-ddr5-6400
 
erek said:
The price of DDR5 memory is setting new highs these days as demand badly outstrips supply. In a bid to save money, Meta is recovering legacy DDR4 memory from used servers and is installing it into new machines using its in-house developed Vistara ASIC that enables it to connect old memory modules to its latest servers running AMD EPYC 'Turin' processors that only support DDR5 memory.

https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-com...-legacy-ddr4-2400-with-cutting-edge-ddr5-6400
Click to expand...
That is sad we are so screwed and are probably never getting new PC parts again at this rate. I really wished I bought more then 48g last year
 

“South Korea To Spend $1 Trillion On More Memory Chip Production​

Anonymous Coward an hour ago		6
An anonymous reader quotes a report from Ars Technica: South Korea's government and top tech companies are committing $1 trillion to several flagship megaprojects that could bolster global memory chip supply, build new AI data centers and spur commercial deployment of humanoid robots by 2028. [...] "We must secure the core elements of AI faster than any other country," said South Korean President Lee Jae Myung in a televised speech on June 29, as reported by BBC News and other media outlets. "Semiconductors, physical AI, and AI data centers are the triple axis for a great leap forward." [...]

The most costly of the megaprojects involves Samsung and SK Hynix committing $585 billion to building new chip fabrication plants in the southwest provinces of South Korea, along with boosting semiconductor fab construction in the Seoul capital region, according to Reuters. The government's goal is to double South Korea's production of dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) within five years. [...] The second flagship megaproject involves a $357 billion investment by the South Korean tech companies SK Group, GS Group, and Naver into building large-scale AI data centers in more outlying provinces, including South Chungcheong Province in the west, Gangwon Province in the east, and the North and South Jeolla Provinces in the southwest corner of South Korea.

The third flagship megaproject revolves around the South Korean government assigning a "national strategic industry" designation to physical AI -- the AI systems that enable robots and self-driving vehicles to interact more autonomously with the real world. The government aims to develop a Korean "general-purpose foundation model" based on a world model to support robots within three years, according to The Chosun Daily. Hyundai Motor Company has also committed $5.8 billion to build a robot manufacturing facility and AI data center in the Saemangeum region of North Jeolla Province in the southwest, The Chosun Daily reported.

The South Korean automaker has already been helping Boston Dynamics -- the US robotics company it acquired in 2021 -- use the South Korean supply chain in scaling up manufacturing to produce 30,000 Atlas humanoid robots each year by 2028. Similarly, the South Korean government announced it would aim to commercialize humanoid robots in 10 major industries by 2028, along with training 10,000 human workers as "AI robotics specialists" over the next five years, Reuters reported.”
DukenukemX
 
Last edited:
raz-0 said:
I don’t know if you had a strike for the bit after the above or your autocorrect did, but I have no idea what you were actually trying to convey other than the actual quoted question.

So first we start with the fact that ram manufacturers seem to get caught engaging in collusion every few years. If it’s been more than five years since the last judgement against them, it’s probably time to do it again. So the question is what kind of things could they potentially be doing?

So we already know the demand is kind of sketchy. OpenAI places orders for memory they had no way to finance to limit competitors access to ram. Alternatively it’s also possible they are playing arbitrage games to undermine the fiscal viability of peeler they have financial commitments to like Oracle. They don’t have money to pay Oracle either. But if they can run up ram prices to the point Oracle can’t deliver they could have just increased their competitors costs and reduced their future liabilities to their vendors. It might not even have a lot of downside if they can just resell their hoarders ram allocations for a profit. At least one of the ram manufacturers has publicly stated they don’t believe these orders are legitimate demand, and believe the industry needs to hedge against them being in bad faith and effectively hacking ram manufactures funding ai company battles. They are strategizing between themselves. Additionally, they said that X% of existing contracts are going to go unfulfilled. No matter how you slice it, that means they are deciding what contracts to not fulfill and by how much. Once you start doing that, you become responsible for the methodology. If they get caught playing favorites or punishing certain business partners, you can wind up being prosecutable.

Additionally, some of these manufacturers have made deals to engage in expansion of manufacturing. There have received subsidies. If they are deliberately engaging in delaying tactics to maximize profits from the current demand, that could be another prosecutable thing. Someone posted an image of the hassles they are experiencing in Syracuse. It makes you shake your head and say “damn I can see how they can’t ramp up production if expansion is this stupid.” Which is how it reads. If it happens to be the case that micron can’t build a factory in Syracuse because they are being sued by various nimby groups that sucks. If they are being sued because they secretly funded those nimby groups to sue them because they don’t want to build it to keep prices up… well that would be an entirely different thing going on. Probably something criminal.

They say they are converting factories to hbm production. If they aren’t actually doing that and just shunting X% of production of ddr5 to warehouses to drive up the price of non hbm memory too, that’d be a problem.

If their collusion between OpenAI and one or more manufacturers to manipulate the ram market in any unlawful way, that too would be a prosecutable problem.

Any of these things are viable possibilities.
Click to expand...
Well said. It's hard to remember all the fudging around the DRAM crisis.
clapping.gif
 
erek said:

“South Korea To Spend $1 Trillion On More Memory Chip Production​

Anonymous Coward an hour ago		6
An anonymous reader quotes a report from Ars Technica: South Korea's government and top tech companies are committing $1 trillion to several flagship megaprojects that could bolster global memory chip supply, build new AI data centers and spur commercial deployment of humanoid robots by 2028. [...] "We must secure the core elements of AI faster than any other country," said South Korean President Lee Jae Myung in a televised speech on June 29, as reported by BBC News and other media outlets. "Semiconductors, physical AI, and AI data centers are the triple axis for a great leap forward." [...]

The most costly of the megaprojects involves Samsung and SK Hynix committing $585 billion to building new chip fabrication plants in the southwest provinces of South Korea, along with boosting semiconductor fab construction in the Seoul capital region, according to Reuters. The government's goal is to double South Korea's production of dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) within five years. [...] The second flagship megaproject involves a $357 billion investment by the South Korean tech companies SK Group, GS Group, and Naver into building large-scale AI data centers in more outlying provinces, including South Chungcheong Province in the west, Gangwon Province in the east, and the North and South Jeolla Provinces in the southwest corner of South Korea.

The third flagship megaproject revolves around the South Korean government assigning a "national strategic industry" designation to physical AI -- the AI systems that enable robots and self-driving vehicles to interact more autonomously with the real world. The government aims to develop a Korean "general-purpose foundation model" based on a world model to support robots within three years, according to The Chosun Daily. Hyundai Motor Company has also committed $5.8 billion to build a robot manufacturing facility and AI data center in the Saemangeum region of North Jeolla Province in the southwest, The Chosun Daily reported.

The South Korean automaker has already been helping Boston Dynamics -- the US robotics company it acquired in 2021 -- use the South Korean supply chain in scaling up manufacturing to produce 30,000 Atlas humanoid robots each year by 2028. Similarly, the South Korean government announced it would aim to commercialize humanoid robots in 10 major industries by 2028, along with training 10,000 human workers as "AI robotics specialists" over the next five years, Reuters reported.”
DukenukemX
Click to expand...

You wonder if this will help supply constraints? Was going to post this.
 
Been waiting for a Dell server I ordered in March, had an eta of 3 months. Just got an update from Dell, eta 3 months. o_O:(
 
Even with discounts that's a huge difference. I was expecting around 60k.
 
tunatime said:
That is sad we are so screwed and are probably never getting new PC parts again at this rate. I really wished I bought more then 48g last year
Click to expand...
Same. Wishing I had bought more. 32g isnt bad but wanted to mess with VM's a bit.
 
Does the price even matter if they never plan to fulfill it lol? They are proabaly selling it to customers that are willing to pay $100k and keep pushing you to the back of the line.
 
vegeta535 said:
Does the price even matter if they never plan to fulfill it lol? They are proabaly selling it to customers that are willing to pay $100k and keep pushing you to the back of the line.
Click to expand...
Yep we went form they need us to buy their stuff to the not caring if they even make something for us to buy because they make 1000x more on "AI"
 
Gigantopithecus said:
I have some vague, fuzzy memory of a great sci-fi short story that revolved around fiefdoms that controlled old garbage dumps, and generated their wealth from salvaging shit we threw away.

Closer to topic, AMD is raising prices on its GPU bundles 10% this month.
Click to expand...
Main premise of the Battle Angel (1993) OVA. :borg::aborg:

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0mDhVJZB3S8

Even Valve isn't immune to getting the scraps, video is timestamped:

View: https://youtu.be/3JElBQ3ooHY?t=130
 
wandplus said:
More investments by SK Hynix...
https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-com...ongin-semiconductor-cluster-for-dram-detailed
Click to expand...

“Samsung and SK hynix to Expand Semiconductor Capacity with $870 Billion Plan​

by AleksandarK Today, 14:17 Discuss (5 Comments)
South Korean giants Samsung and SK hynix have announced plans to invest about 1,350 trillion won, roughly $870 billion at the time of writing, into expanding semiconductor manufacturing capacity and data centers over the next ten years. This ten-year plan includes memory, storage, and logic, which both companies produce. For SK hynix, this investment will cover DRAM and NAND Flash, while for Samsung, it will cover DRAM, NAND Flash, as well as logic for its LSI division. The investment is so comprehensive that it will include more than just creating new fab production capacity for increased wafer output. For example, it will also encompass AI data centers, batteries, display manufacturing, chip-making tools, etching, photomasks, and much more.

The first milestone set by the South Korean government is to double DRAM production capacity within five years and significantly improve NAND Flash production capacity. By the end of the ten-year plan, both Samsung and SK hynix will add 4-5 semiconductor plants to their South Korean hubs, which will be a massive investment in job creation and production capacity. This is a strong indicator that South Korea will remain a leader in modern memory and storage production. Although the plans might seem ambitious, the ten-year timeline allows both companies and the South Korean government to manage the investment and buildout effectively.“
 

"AI Server Demand Continues to Support Memory Prices in 3Q26, but Gains Moderate as Consumer Demand Weakens and High Base Effects Take Hold​

Press Release by TheLostSwede Today, 02:29 Discuss (17 Comments)
TrendForce's latest memory pricing survey reveals that the DRAM market will remain extremely tight in the third quarter of 2026. However, weaker demand from consumer applications and the impact of a higher comparison base are expected to moderate contract price increases to 13-18% QoQ.

Demand for NAND Flash will continue to be driven primarily by AI inference and large-scale data center deployments. Yet, with contract prices already at record highs and consumer demand slowing, price tolerance among consumer customers has reached its limit. As a result, NAND Flash contract prices are projected to increase by 10-15% QoQ—a noticeably slower pace than in previous quarters."
 
Quote: "the ten-year timeline allows both companies and the South Korean government to manage the investment and buildout effectively" I just realized this could mean cancelling some projects when the AI bubble starts to burst.
 
erek said:
“PC hardware has never been more expensive, and the ongoing memory crisis deserves most of the credit for that. Cinder City, an upcoming open-world third-person shooter from NC and Big Fire Games set in a dystopian near-future Seoul, recently made headlines as the first PC game to recommend 64GB of RAM.”

Read more: https://www.tweaktown.com/news/1124...grades-recommended-gpu-to-rtx-4070/index.html
Click to expand...
Bullshite like a IBM 8514/A from 1997 is ≈$3,700 (Corrected for inflation)
1783227495750.png


People today cry to much unfounded.
 
littlegreenmenfromhome said:
People today cry to much unfounded.
Click to expand...
They probably started to follow that space and pay for their own computer after 2000 (where it could be true we would have to look to be sure), the idea that pc hardware has never been more expensive would never go throught the mind of someone that bought memory or a full computer in the late 80s, early 90s.

Our 4MB of ram, 20mhz 486 sx IBM PS/1 with a 14 inch CRT did cost quite the fortune, way more than an 48gb unified memory, 2 TB MacBook pro with the M5 pro chip in it.
 

“Samsung likely to post 18-fold jump in profit on surging AI demand for memory​


  • Q2 profit seen hitting third straight record high
  • Memory shortage expected to persist into next year
  • Workers' bonuses could come in higher than expected, analysts say
  • Potential AI infrastructure delays pose biggest risk, analysts say
  • Rising memory prices squeeze mobile business margin
SEOUL, July 6 (Reuters) - Samsung Electronics (005930.KS), opens new tab is likely to estimate that its operating profit jumped about 18-fold to another record high from a year earlier in the second quarter, as AI growth continues to strain memory supply and push chip prices ‌higher.”

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-...p-profit-surging-ai-demand-memory-2026-07-05/
 
erek said:

“Samsung likely to post 18-fold jump in profit on surging AI demand for memory​


  • Q2 profit seen hitting third straight record high
  • Memory shortage expected to persist into next year
  • Workers' bonuses could come in higher than expected, analysts say
  • Potential AI infrastructure delays pose biggest risk, analysts say
  • Rising memory prices squeeze mobile business margin
SEOUL, July 6 (Reuters) - Samsung Electronics (005930.KS), opens new tab is likely to estimate that its operating profit jumped about 18-fold to another record high from a year earlier in the second quarter, as AI growth continues to strain memory supply and push chip prices ‌higher.”

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-...p-profit-surging-ai-demand-memory-2026-07-05/
Click to expand...
Whelp, maybe it'll be longer than 2028 until memory prices settle down...
 
erek said:

“Samsung likely to post 18-fold jump in profit on surging AI demand for memory​


  • Q2 profit seen hitting third straight record high
  • Memory shortage expected to persist into next year
  • Workers' bonuses could come in higher than expected, analysts say
  • Potential AI infrastructure delays pose biggest risk, analysts say
  • Rising memory prices squeeze mobile business margin
SEOUL, July 6 (Reuters) - Samsung Electronics (005930.KS), opens new tab is likely to estimate that its operating profit jumped about 18-fold to another record high from a year earlier in the second quarter, as AI growth continues to strain memory supply and push chip prices ‌higher.”

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-...p-profit-surging-ai-demand-memory-2026-07-05/
Click to expand...

I'd guess this their way of making up for the phone failures.
 
  • Like
Reactions: erek
like this
AceGoober said:
I'd guess this their way of making up for the phone failures.
Click to expand...

“Samsung appliance workers to stage a rally protesting chip workers' wage deal​



SEOUL, July 6 (Reuters) - Workers in Samsung Electronics' (005930.KS), opens new tab smartphone, television and home appliance division will stage a rally on July ‌16, their union said, to protest the big bonuses the company's chip workers have negotiated.
  • Workers in the company's booming semiconductor division recently won a wage deal led ⁠by another union.
  • The non-chip division's workers are expected to receive a bonus of 6 million won ($3,900) in treasury shares for 2026, compared to up to 600 million won for those at the semiconductor division, Yonhap News Agency said.
  • Roughly 2,000 or 3,000 ‌workers ⁠are expected to participate in the rally near Samsung's headquarters in Suwon, Yonhap reported, citing the largest union for workers in the company's ⁠mobiles and consumer electronics division said.
  • The union has about 28,000 members.
  • Samsung is expected to flag its ⁠operating profit surged about 18-fold from a year earlier in the second quarter, ⁠when it releases its earnings estimate for the April-June quarter on Tuesday.“
https://www.reuters.com/business/wo...protesting-chip-workers-wage-deal-2026-07-06/
 

“South Korea's SK Hynix Launching $28 Billion US Listing To Ride Global AI Wave​

BeauHD 2 hours ago		4
SK Hynix is launching a Nasdaq listing expected to raise about $28 billion, giving US investors easier access to one of the biggest beneficiaries of the AI memory-chip boom. Reuters reports: The company will sell 17.79 million new shares in the depository receipt listing on the Nasdaq. Ten ADRs will represent one common share and the stock will be sold in a price range that is due to be revealed on Monday, based on SK Hynix's Seoul trading price. SK Hynix's share price was down 4% at 2,327,000 won each on Monday, but the stock is up about 273% this year, as it rides surging global investor demand for AI stocks. Korea's KOSPI was down 2.2% on Monday. [...]

SK Hynix has been among the world's largest beneficiaries of the AI boom as it outperformed its major rivals Samsung and Micron. "This is more than a liquidity event," said Dave Mazza, the chief executive officer of Roundhill Investments in New York, which manages an exchange-traded fund tracking DRAM manufacturers, which is one of the most popular ways for U.S. investors to trade SK Hynix's stock. "SK Hynix has been one of the most important companies in the world that most U.S. institutions could not easily own." "The listing removes an accessibility discount, not a quality discount."

[...] SK Hynix said the proceeds from the listing of the American Depositary Receipts will be used to build chip factories in South Korea and buy chipmaking equipment including an extreme ultraviolet scanner made by Dutch equipment maker ASML. The final price of the New York listing is due to be set on Thursday, ahead of the stock starting trade on Friday, regulatory filings showed. The company's management will meet global investors on a roadshow this week. The deal is expected to be the second-biggest share sale after a record $85.7 billion initial public offering by SpaceX last month, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $25.6 billion IPO in 2019 and Alibaba's similar-sized offering in 2014.”
 
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