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DRAM Pricing Jumps 50%, Only 70% of Orders Getting Filled

Not sure how long it will take but CXMT has started to eat some of Micron's lunch (and the other big 2 chip makers too), at least in China first. In addition since CXMT started off with a much lower revenue than Micron , their y-o-y revenue growth is well over 700% and will be interesting if they can maintain triple digit revenue growth rate in the next few quarters.

I say give it 2-3 years when new CXMT fabs are added and in full production mode, then price competition will be brutal. The key thing is whether US and perhaps European consumers will accept China made memory chips but I'm sure other countries in Asia and Latin America which are more price sensitive will be more open to China made memory.
 
The AI hw scam continues...MU deserves to burn to the ground along with SNDK, STX and WDC. Ofc the hyperscalers are to blame just as much, blindly borrowing to build data centers with no idea of ever seeing an ROI...insanity continues for now. Staying on the sidelines.
 
Just what I needed to read before planning a major non-systems purchase.


Will we get any relief from new Chinese manufacturers any time soon? Dare we hope? Or does this warning include new sources of supply?
I've been told that 8GB is only fine for MacOS and not Windows. Didn't Microsoft get the memo?

Micron Locks In Historically High Memory Prices For Five Years

BeauHD 4 hours ago
53
Micron has signed 16 "strategic customer agreements" (SCAs) that include a floor price the company says comes with "a very robust gross margin for Micron, well above our peak quarterly margins in any past cycle." Most of the deals run through 2030 and cover about 40% of Micron's revenue. The Register reports: Micron CEO, president and chairman Sanjay Mehrotra explained the SCAs in prepared remarks delivered during the company's Q3 earnings call. He explained that Micron has signed 16 SCAs, most of them covering 2026 to 2030, and that they involve a commitment to buy a certain quantity of product and pay for it in a pricing band that has a floor and a ceiling price. The floor price covers the historically high gross margins mentioned above, and the ceiling price means those who commit to an SCA are insulated if memory prices go even higher.

The CEO said 16 customers have signed SCAs and then explained why it's worth locking into the deals even though they bake in such high margins. "Our customers are recognizing that supply shortages in memory and storage will take considerable time to improve," he said. "Even as we expect industry supply to improve gradually in 2028, we currently do not have line of sight as to when memory supply will be able to catch up with increasing demand."

Even massive efforts to build new chip fabs aren't much help, he said, because the increasing complexity of new memory types means it takes longer to build factories -- and when they come online there still won't be enough capacity to build both the high-bandwidth memory needed for AI and other types of NAND and DRAM. "Supply is structurally constrained in its growth and ability to meet industry demand, despite our comprehensive efforts to increase supply," he said.

Don't assume that SCAs mean your suppliers get price certainty, because Mehrotra said the deals will account for 40 percent of Micron revenue -- meaning the company is reserving most of its inventory to sell at prices it can negotiate. The CEO did have a little good news in the form of predictions that Micron's DRAM output in 2026 will "grow in the low- to mid-20s percentage range, slightly above our prior outlook." He also revealed that the SCAs see customers pay up front, which helps Micron to fund its fab expansions.”
 

Micron Locks In Historically High Memory Prices For Five Years

BeauHD 4 hours ago
53
Micron has signed 16 "strategic customer agreements" (SCAs) that include a floor price the company says comes with "a very robust gross margin for Micron, well above our peak quarterly margins in any past cycle." Most of the deals run through 2030 and cover about 40% of Micron's revenue. The Register reports: Micron CEO, president and chairman Sanjay Mehrotra explained the SCAs in prepared remarks delivered during the company's Q3 earnings call. He explained that Micron has signed 16 SCAs, most of them covering 2026 to 2030, and that they involve a commitment to buy a certain quantity of product and pay for it in a pricing band that has a floor and a ceiling price. The floor price covers the historically high gross margins mentioned above, and the ceiling price means those who commit to an SCA are insulated if memory prices go even higher.

The CEO said 16 customers have signed SCAs and then explained why it's worth locking into the deals even though they bake in such high margins. "Our customers are recognizing that supply shortages in memory and storage will take considerable time to improve," he said. "Even as we expect industry supply to improve gradually in 2028, we currently do not have line of sight as to when memory supply will be able to catch up with increasing demand."

Even massive efforts to build new chip fabs aren't much help, he said, because the increasing complexity of new memory types means it takes longer to build factories -- and when they come online there still won't be enough capacity to build both the high-bandwidth memory needed for AI and other types of NAND and DRAM. "Supply is structurally constrained in its growth and ability to meet industry demand, despite our comprehensive efforts to increase supply," he said.

Don't assume that SCAs mean your suppliers get price certainty, because Mehrotra said the deals will account for 40 percent of Micron revenue -- meaning the company is reserving most of its inventory to sell at prices it can negotiate. The CEO did have a little good news in the form of predictions that Micron's DRAM output in 2026 will "grow in the low- to mid-20s percentage range, slightly above our prior outlook." He also revealed that the SCAs see customers pay up front, which helps Micron to fund its fab expansions.”
I hope this behavior after 5 years bites Micron in the ass.
 
It's not really micron fault overnight we went ai crazy. They would be crazy not to sell for as high as they can
Taking advantage of a situation is one thing, but locking it in for 5 years when the AI bubble could pop before then is just greed on another level.
 
AI bubble is not popping. Government around the world want and need it.
Lol, no government needs it or wants it. They just want to rake in the money by creating the bubble. It's a rug pull on the grandest scale. The U.S. government wants it because if it fails, it's too big to fail, and they'll force the people to bail it out. No risk, all reward. People are too blind or dumb to do anything about it. There's a small few who will likely push back on the datacenters, or destroy them and be deemed domestic terrorists.
 
Lol, no government needs it or wants it. They just want to rake in the money by creating the bubble. It's a rug pull on the grandest scale. The U.S. government wants it because if it fails, it's too big to fail, and they'll force the people to bail it out. No risk, all reward. People are too blind or dumb to do anything about it. There's a small few who will likely push back on the datacenters, or destroy them and be deemed domestic terrorists.

Helps with military/warfare/logistics - ain't going anywhere - no other government is gonna say 'nah not for us' and fall behind every other one that does integrate/go forward with it - prisoner's dilemma
 
Was never here. They can call it AI, but it ain't AI. Regardless, this is the best use of AI I ever saw.

If it was never here then what are you crying about and saying will go away? How can something that doesn't exist go away if it never existed in the first place to go away?
 
If it was never here then what are you crying about and saying will go away? How can something that doesn't exist go away if it never existed in the first place to go away?
Even if I put the words in quotes, you wouldn't get it. Why you're so sensitive about the deets? Not worth crying over.
 
Even if I put the words in quotes, you wouldn't get it. Why you're so sensitive about the deets? Not worth crying over.

No I don't get it, because AI is clearly here as we can all plainly see.

And isn't going anywhere, plainly obvious by those who can clearly see.
 
No I don't get it, because AI is clearly here as we can all plainly see.

And isn't going anywhere, obvious by those who can clearly see.
I know you don't get it, and it's alright. AI, a eye - in the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king.
 
Like a bubble that will eventually pop?

I agree - it's not a bubble, it's not popping.
Well, I can't very well call it "AI that isn't really AI bubble" that's going to pop. Nor would I call the "Housing bubble" the "US Subprime Mortgage bubble", because people would be like, wuut?
 
bubble or pimple? Hmm

Intractable

Well, I can't very well call it "AI that isn't really AI bubble" that's going to pop. Nor would I call the "Housing bubble" the "US Subprime Mortgage bubble", because people would be like, wuut?

Right, you can't (properly, correctly, at least) call it any of those things because

it's not a bubble, it's not popping.

Glad we agree
 
2026-06-25_17-11-01.jpg

The only one agreeing with you is yourself. We can agree on that.
 
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Micron Locks In Historically High Memory Prices For Five Years

BeauHD 4 hours ago
53
Micron has signed 16 "strategic customer agreements" (SCAs) that include a floor price the company says comes with "a very robust gross margin for Micron, well above our peak quarterly margins in any past cycle." Most of the deals run through 2030 and cover about 40% of Micron's revenue. The Register reports: Micron CEO, president and chairman Sanjay Mehrotra explained the SCAs in prepared remarks delivered during the company's Q3 earnings call. He explained that Micron has signed 16 SCAs, most of them covering 2026 to 2030, and that they involve a commitment to buy a certain quantity of product and pay for it in a pricing band that has a floor and a ceiling price. The floor price covers the historically high gross margins mentioned above, and the ceiling price means those who commit to an SCA are insulated if memory prices go even higher.

The CEO said 16 customers have signed SCAs and then explained why it's worth locking into the deals even though they bake in such high margins. "Our customers are recognizing that supply shortages in memory and storage will take considerable time to improve," he said. "Even as we expect industry supply to improve gradually in 2028, we currently do not have line of sight as to when memory supply will be able to catch up with increasing demand."

Even massive efforts to build new chip fabs aren't much help, he said, because the increasing complexity of new memory types means it takes longer to build factories -- and when they come online there still won't be enough capacity to build both the high-bandwidth memory needed for AI and other types of NAND and DRAM. "Supply is structurally constrained in its growth and ability to meet industry demand, despite our comprehensive efforts to increase supply," he said.

Don't assume that SCAs mean your suppliers get price certainty, because Mehrotra said the deals will account for 40 percent of Micron revenue -- meaning the company is reserving most of its inventory to sell at prices it can negotiate. The CEO did have a little good news in the form of predictions that Micron's DRAM output in 2026 will "grow in the low- to mid-20s percentage range, slightly above our prior outlook." He also revealed that the SCAs see customers pay up front, which helps Micron to fund its fab expansions.”
Perhaps better lock-in the price range before memory competition starts to heat up globally and eroding the margin? Ok this time is different, like most experts always say :ROFLMAO:
 
It's not going away because for the first time ever the government and corporations can build mass surveillance centers that track everything we do in real time and make it easily searchable like flock ECT.....bit hey they give us "ai" to play around with to hide what they are really doing so no one cares.
 
Is there any other confirmation anyone here has seen of that rumor "50% per quarter through 2028?" Because frankly we have not seen that brewing yet. Prices have somewhat stabilized for months now. You can get a kit of DDR5 6000 CL28 for $425 from Amazon today. It's been around that level for months. If it goes up 50% per quarter (even if that's not compounded) we should be at $1700 by end of 2027 (or some absurd number in the thousands if it's compounded) . I don't need to explain or bother with hyperbole about why that can't possibly work for anything globally.
 
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Is there any other confirmation anyone here has seen of that rumor "50% per quarter through 2028?" Because frankly we have not seen that brewing yet. Prices have somewhat stabilized for months now. You can get a kit of DDR5 6000 CL28 for $425 from Amazon today. It's been around that level for months. If it goes up 50% per quarter (even if that's not compounded) we should be at $1700 by end of 2027 (or some absurd number in the thousands if it's compounded) . I don't need to explain or bother with hyperbole about what that can't possibly work for anything globally.
Probably depends on the U.S. midterm elections. The push for AI is very much entrenched politically.
 
LoL. Memory is no longer a commodity.

Memory Price Hikes Will Become a New Norm, Claims Lenovo

by AleksandarK Today, 03:56 Discuss (22 Comments)
A very grim picture is being painted over the consumer PC space as Lenovo is now claiming that memory price increases will become the new norm. According to the latest report from Wall Street News China, Lenovo stated at ISC 2026 that the upward trajectory for memory prices has just begun, meaning that these increases will become a standard expectation. This is disappointing news for the majority of PC enthusiasts who were hoping for stabilization in DRAM and NAND Flash pricing, as these increases are pushing the cost of consumer electronics beyond previous levels of affordability.

Lenovo, one of the largest PC OEMs, frequently conducts channel checks with its DRAM and NAND Flash suppliers. The company is adept at projecting demand, allowing it to understand where the demand and supply ratio is heading. According to the company's analysis, even though Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron are accelerating the construction of new semiconductor fabs to expand capacity, this is simply not enough to meet demand. It is unclear whether this means that the new capacity coming online is insufficient or if the current capacity projections are inadequate. Either way, Lenovo projects that shortages of DRAM and NAND Flash will last longer than originally anticipated.“
 
Will we get any relief from new Chinese manufacturers any time soon? Dare we hope? Or does this warning include new sources of supply?
Doubt so, while CXMT is doing an IPO right now and will explode fast, they are already a major player right now:

https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/chinas-cxmt-is-set-to-challenge-dram

s%2F17bfbf22-acaf-43c3-886c-0841d99ea6e1_1862x1264.jpg


but demand is still accelerating at least as fast as supply capacity are growing, so price are still expected to rise :

https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/stop-saying-half-of-2026-us-datacenter
We update the dataset by reviewing every site dozens of times a year. However, over the last 6 months, our YE2026 NA Hyperscaler Self-build forecast only moved by ~1%, and NA colocation <5%. ... our Datacenter Model capacity forecast shows quarter by quarter delivery, and it’s clear to us that delivered MWs are accelerating.
es%2Fd239c380-9b42-4dde-9f70-5b4f3c1a1bd6_1558x989.jpg
 
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