BTC is scaring me (my 2 cents)

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cdabc123

Supreme [H]ardness
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Jun 21, 2016
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for everyone who is reading this please know this is purely my speculation, NEVER trade on someones advice, and trade responsibly.

This recent jump has me extremly frightened, with the large amount of money coming in from people who have no idea wtf a crypto is btc is jumping. now anyone with money in it probably sees this as a good thing but i HIGHLY disagree. you dont want anything to jump like btc is doing right now and currently there are no corrections at all. That in combo with the fact it it isnt staying at any price point for a long time means there is no time to establish any decent levels of resistance. as a result if btc gets any downwards momentum (it will obviously have some in the next lil bit) there is VERY little stopping it from droping to 10-13k. It may very well keep running for another few k but be very weary of buying right now and if you do set decent stop losses (first time i ever said that with crypto) and DO NOT BE GREEDY, TAKE PROFIT WHEN YOU CAN. hopefully we get a decent coralation to ~15k and then it continues its run but it doesnt look like its going to do that.

just my 2 cents and never invest money you cannot lose (dont take a fucking mortgage to buy btc right now...)
 
RogueTadhg said:
Why is it scaring you?
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lots of stupid money will inevitably cause a decent sized crash. when btc fall other cryptos sadly like to go with it. I have lots of crypto And i am scarred this will be a big enough drop to fuckup crypto markets for awhille.
 
Fear and Greed are two things you don't want while trading. Get out while you can.
 
RogueTadhg said:
Fear and Greed are two things you don't want while trading. Get out while you can.
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im out of all my trading position (still mine alot) fear and greed are a pretty good description of the money coming into the market right now and that is some of the worst money to get into the markets.
 
I don't know. I think the Bitcoin has quite a bit more life in it. Even if it dips down briefly. I wish I had a lot more money to put into it honestly. Not just for the aspect of the trading, either.

I've always been a person that believe in the function of what Bitcoin is. Just didn't know there was something like it :p
 
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RogueTadhg said:
I don't know. I think the Bitcoin has quite a bit more life in it. Even if it dips down briefly. I wish I had a lot more money to put into it honestly.
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btc really needs to fork as it has alot of issues that may it pretty hard to use as anything but a coin to hold value. When that fork comes it will be bloody. even this drama with the segwit fork was bad and the next fork will be much worse. I wouldnt take btc for a long position (i would howevf3er bet all my money on a long position for some other cryptos) btc is not going up at a good rate right now. what it did for the last year or so was a very nice way for it to grow. this absalutly stupid rapid growth will lead to a dip that will be pretty large. If your in low enough you may be just fine as it will evenchally find its way back up (provided a fork doesnt kill it) but it is a VERY risky position to be throwing money in at this second with no recent correlation or anything to establish any levels of resistance. ether is alittle better right now but it will probrably drop abit soon too.
 
Probleminfected said:
If you are long term holder. Don’t watch

If you’re a swing trader, get in there my son.
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completyl agree as a long term holder. but i wouldnt touch it as a swign trader right now. cryptos can drop with literally 0 warning and shorting is so difficult to make money. I would honestly keep trades held for under a day if i was trading it right now.
 
cdabc123 said:
completyl agree as a long term holder. but i wouldnt touch it as a swign trader right now. cryptos can drop with literally 0 warning and shorting is so difficult to make money. I would honestly keep trades held for under a day if i was trading it right now.
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I’m not skilled enough for this market. No more trading for me until btc gets stable again
 
Probleminfected said:
I’m not skilled enough for this market. No more trading for me until btc gets stable again
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if your trading for any period longer then a few hours you need to buy low. unless your stupid luck its the only way to make and consistant money and most people love to buy the hype on the upswing. and never short a crypto. impossible to know when they drop (and what the top it)
 
cdabc123 said:
if your trading for any period longer then a few hours you need to buy low. unless your stupid luck its the only way to make and consistant money and most people love to buy the hype on the upswing. and never short a crypto. impossible to know when they drop (and what the top it)
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Buy the red, sell the green

Buy the hype, sell the news.

TA as best you can with Elliot wave, fib lines, cloud, stoch, rsi, macd


All this dumb fomo money coming in makes TA even more difficult.
 
cdabc123 said:
completyl agree as a long term holder. but i wouldnt touch it as a swign trader right now. cryptos can drop with literally 0 warning and shorting is so difficult to make money. I would honestly keep trades held for under a day if i was trading it right now.
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Trading is always betting. It's either going up or go down. It's not hard making money with BTC, either. Just like normal trading.
 
RogueTadhg said:
Trading is always betting. It's either going up or go down. It's not hard making money with BTC, either. Just like normal trading.
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yea pretty easy to make money in a market that has pretty much only increased in the last year. wait if that changes and see if its just as easyt to make money.
 
Probleminfected said:
Buy the red, sell the green

Buy the hype, sell the news.

TA as best you can with Elliot wave, fib lines, cloud, stoch, rsi, macd


All this dumb fomo money coming in makes TA even more difficult.
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especially hard with btc as it moves way up if the public and will drop the second any bad news hits. hard for a human to accuratly trade unless your litterally staring at it 24/7 and its always a open market :O
 
cdabc123 said:
especially hard with btc as it moves way up if the public and will drop the second any bad news hits. hard for a human to accuratly trade unless your litterally staring at it 24/7 and its always a open market :O
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You've never traded in the Forex market, I take it. There's "Sessions" but currency still changes all day, every day.

Yes, It's really easy to trade. Yes, it's also easy to lose money.


But I seen Bitcoin as something as something beautiful. I would've been an early adopter :p
 
RogueTadhg said:
You've never traded in the Forex market, I take it. There's "Sessions" but currency still changes all day, every day.

Yes, It's really easy to trade. Yes, it's also easy to lose money.


But I seen Bitcoin as something as something beautiful. I would've been an early adopter :p
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Forex is a total shit show compared to crypto.
 
Probleminfected said:
Forex is a total shit show compared to crypto.
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I still cant find any decent exchanges with a crypto/usd(or tether) margin position. i use kraken because of hte dirt cheap lending rates but holy hell they have the slowest website and worse trading engine in existance.
 
cdabc123 said:
I still cant find any decent exchanges with a crypto/usd(or tether) margin position. i use kraken because of hte dirt cheap lending rates but holy hell they have the slowest website and worse trading engine in existance.
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I assume you’re in the USA? Hard for us unless you’ve got a friend in a foreign land and a vps.

https://www.bitfinex.com/
 
Probleminfected said:
I assume you’re in the USA? Hard for us unless you’ve got a friend in a foreign land and a vps.
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sadly yes. with that sid i should look into foreign ones and do exactly that. I mine all my coin and sell it to paypal so it doesnt really matter where the exchange is.
 
I use Coinbase, but it's definitely not something you could run as a day trader. (Not that I have a lot of money in there anyways*. :'( )



* I take donations.
 
RogueTadhg said:
I use Coinbase, but it's definitely not something you could run as a day trader. (Not that I have a lot of money in there anyways*. :'( )



* I take donations.
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i have a tiny spread on kraken .1% so its nice when it works then i use polinex for small payments and trading crypto/crypto as it works well i have said this abunch and will say it again but coinbase is a scummy company and they suck. I would say avoid them at all costs but its pretty hard if your in the us.
 
You should be worrying about the old money, not the new. I'd guess maybe 500-1000 people hold the majority of the BTC. When the big whales decide to get together and cash out, that's when a major crash will occur.
 
Zef Pomp said:
You should be worrying about the old money, not the new. I'd guess maybe 500-1000 people hold the majority of the BTC. When the big whales decide to get together and cash out, that's when a major crash will occur.
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im worried about the people taking out debt to buy. they are trying to get rich and will trade stupidly as a result, many people see this jump as a good thing and honestly i cannot see any ways it is. as for those whales im willing to bet a good portion of that 500-1000 are dead accounts that no one has access to. and idk if there is much communication at the top. its not the easiest to find who relates to what accounts. with that said i dought it would take very much to cause a drop at this point so it could be just a few people able to cause it.
 
Definitely, you should not play with any amount of money that you cannot afford to lose.

I am just as skeptical about it as you. 1k to 20k in a year..lol
 
Zef Pomp said:
Definitely, you should not play with any amount of money that you cannot afford to lose.

I am just as skeptical about it as you. 1k to 20k in a year..lol
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lol eth went from 8 to 700 :p i regret selling ~40 @ 12 :( but it is what it is. and honestly i was perfectly fine with the growth up until these last runs. lack of any pullback and stupid growth. but then again only time will tell :p
 
cdabc123 said:
im worried about the people taking out debt to buy. they are trying to get rich and will trade stupidly as a result, many people see this jump as a good thing and honestly i cannot see any ways it is. as for those whales im willing to bet a good portion of that 500-1000 are dead accounts that no one has access to. and idk if there is much communication at the top. its not the easiest to find who relates to what accounts. with that said i dought it would take very much to cause a drop at this point so it could be just a few people able to cause it.
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There will be people that lose money. When individuals put their money into the market like this, it's almost a guarantee. Like I said before - Greed and Fear will make people do mistakes. The fact is, no one knows if the Bitcoin is going to crash tomorrow, or sometime in a couple decades. Generally, if the real world fiat currency has anything to say about it - we'll be due for a disturbance in the force within 20 years. Hell at the rate it's going soon... The power Bitcoin could have over normal currency could be dangerous to a lot of people.

There's no easy way to say it. But I think everyone's looking at this the wrong way. I typed up a huge paragraph with a lot of different topics when I realized that books can be written on it. So I'll just- TLDR; Take out loans. Use the capital wisely. Money is a tool to get more money. This isn't just with Bitcoin. Businesses don't have an unlimited money button they can press. They will often time rely on investors and banks to get off the ground.

With that said... I wouldn't personally take out a loan that I couldn't pay back myself. Or put up my house for Mortgage. Because it could all go south tomorrow. It's volatile and beautiful.


Risk nothing, Get nothing.
 
RogueTadhg said:
There will be people that lose money. When individuals put their money into the market like this, it's almost a guarantee. Like I said before - Greed and Fear will make people do mistakes. The fact is, no one knows if the Bitcoin is going to crash tomorrow, or sometime in a couple decades. Generally, if the real world fiat currency has anything to say about it - we'll be due for a disturbance in the force within 20 years. Hell at the rate it's going soon... The power Bitcoin could have over normal currency could be dangerous to a lot of people.

There's no easy way to say it. But I think everyone's looking at this the wrong way. I typed up a huge paragraph with a lot of different topics when I realized that books can be written on it. So I'll just- TLDR; Take out loans. Use the capital wisely. Money is a tool to get more money. This isn't just with Bitcoin. Businesses don't have an unlimited money button they can press. They will often time rely on investors and banks to get off the ground.

With that said... I wouldn't personally take out a loan that I couldn't pay back myself. Or put up my house for Mortgage. Because it could all go south tomorrow. It's volatile and beautiful.


Risk nothing, Get nothing.
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taking out a loan to buy bitcoin is equivelent to taking a loan to go to the casino. either way it is utterly stupid. and im pretty aggressive with my investments normally i trade with a 5x margin on crypto and have been trading crypto for awhille now. and i can honestly say this is the first time it has me really concerned. i like jumps, but when it jumps then jumps then jumps then jumps everyone should proceed with EXTREME caution. I belive crypto will be a growing force for a LONG time however i dont think btc will make it with the rest of them. It has so many issues that people have tried and failed to resolve that it will never become what it was intended to be. and yes btc could be dangerous to alot of people with ALOT of money and i promise its more then possible for those people to get bitcoin to fall into the planet at some point (probrably withen a year). I do however belive in other cryptos to sucseed in the long run, ethereum looks absalutly fantastic and i wholehartedly suport it. i belive it will drop when btc falls and continue its trend up.
 
Putting your money in the market is betting at a casino. You're betting that it'll go in your favor. The only thing that makes it less like a casino and try to get an edge on the market is by looking at past data. Using candles, wicks, systems, charts and graphs, patterns, the star light shining on the grass during a snow storm... The bottom line is that it's still out best guess. Professionals with years of experience and dedication aim for a 1:3 ratio where they'll lose 1 time out of 3. Most of us, if we're lucky, will see 1:2.

Taking out loan shouldn't be frowned upon. If you were to have 100 dollars, and decided to bet 1% on a position. You'd possibly get 1 dollar from that. However, if you were to get $4000 and invested 1% of that... 40 dollars. I'm saying taking a loan out in a responsible manner isn't a bad idea. Put safeguards in play that will limit your loss. Manage your risk by putting gradual removing your positions. Practice controlling your emotions.

Unless you have information that isn't public; Rule 10b5-1 prohibits material nonpublic information (I think they call it). Which would almost certainly cause the market to go in your favor. But I don't even know if that rule really even applies here, with Currency. I know it does with Stocks though.
 
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cdabc123 said:
lots of stupid money will inevitably cause a decent sized crash. when btc fall other cryptos sadly like to go with it. I have lots of crypto And i am scarred this will be a big enough drop to fuckup crypto markets for awhille.
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sell what you have and prepare to buy on the burst?
 
mkrohn said:
sell what you have and prepare to buy on the burst?
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exactly what i did. it will be painfull to watch for the next little bit as "aw i should have sold now instead of earlier" you never know the top so that feeling will always be there
 
cdabc123 said:
exactly what i did. it will be painfull to watch for the next little bit as "aw i should have sold now instead of earlier" you never know the top so that feeling will always be there
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Practice Risk Management by selling a little at a profit at a time.
 
RogueTadhg said:
Putting your money in the market is betting at a casino. You're betting that it'll go in your favor. The only thing that makes it less like a casino and try to get an edge on the market is by looking at past data. Using candles, wicks, systems, charts and graphs, patterns, the star light shining on the grass during a snow storm... The bottom line is that it's still out best guess. Professionals with years of experience and dedication aim for a 1:3 ratio where they'll lose 1 time out of 3. Most of us, if we're lucky, will see 1:2.

Taking out loan shouldn't be frowned upon. If you were to have 100 dollars, and decided to bet 1% on a position. You'd possibly get 1 dollar from that. However, if you were to get $4000 and invested 1% of that... 40 dollars. I'm saying taking a loan out in a responsible manner isn't a bad idea. Put safeguards in play that will limit your loss. Manage your risk by putting gradual removing your positions. Practice controlling your emotions.

Unless you have information that isn't public; Rule 10b5-1 prohibits material nonpublic information (I think they call it). Which would almost certainly cause the market to go in your favor. But I don't even know if that rule really even applies here, with Currency. I know it does with Stocks though.
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no real rules yet and hopefully it stays that way, i like all the manipulation to be out in the open rather then with stocks where its all very hidden. and i curently have no positions as there are no positions worth anything more then a 50/50 chance atm.
 
RogueTadhg said:
Practice Risk Management by selling a little at a profit at a time.
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i did but still sold all (other non crypto investments i jumped into) i am really suprised it ran this far without any pullback. i normally sell small amounts as it goes up and the final amounts as it begins to dip then buy after it hits a flow and jumps up ~%5 unforcuantly it is just jumping as alot of stupid money comes in.
 
cdabc123 said:
i did but still sold all (other non crypto investments i jumped into) i am really suprised it ran this far without any pullback. i normally sell small amounts as it goes up and the final amounts as it begins to dip then buy after it hits a flow and jumps up ~%5 unforcuantly it is just jumping as alot of stupid money comes in.
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There were a lot of pullbacks. 2700, 3k, 4.5k, 5k, 7.8k to 5.3k... We're in one as we speak.
 
RogueTadhg said:
There were a lot of pullbacks. 2700, 3k, 4.5k, 5k, 7.8k to 5.3k... We're in one as we speak.
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those were all nice pullbacks we havent had on since 11.4k to 9.6k that is where the levels of resistance sit. and dont get me wrong bitcoin will not decrease to nothing (near impossible for cryptos to) unless it has a steady downtrend for awhille. But there is VERY little holding btc up right now and do not be fooled into thinking it cant fall back to 12k in a hour or so if any one negitive thing happenes
 
I put in 10k on the 7th and cashed out 11k this morning. Just about everyone has 'I sold too soon' stories, but had I bought Ethereum or Litecoin on the 7th instead of Bitcoin, I'd have profited 10-20k instead of 1k. :( I always buy the wrong damn coins at the wrong damn times.

With everything ridiculously high right now I'm hesitant to put anything into anything. Might get back in when things trend down and stabilize, and then sit on it until the next pump, if and when that ever happens.
 
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My only concern is if other stocks, hedge funds, commodities are linked to crypto currencies. These can fluctuate a lot within a short period of time without warning, as some have already said. Some analyst s have suggested a crash or a bursting of a bubble, and if cryptocurrencies' trading are deeply interwoven in stockmarkets, that would have severe repercussions. Not that regular stocks are not prone to crashing, but given the highly speculative nature of the crypto currencies' trade at this time, it could precipitate the markets into chaos faster, without warning or reason. Measures should be put into place to prevent that. If so, then by all means let people do as they please with their money.
 
PiERiT said:
I put in 10k on the 7th and cashed out 11k this morning. Just about everyone has 'I sold too soon' stories, but had I bought Ethereum or Litecoin on the 7th instead of Bitcoin, I'd have profited 20-30k instead of 1k. :( I always buy the wrong damn coins at the wrong damn times.

With everything ridiculously high right now I'm hesitant to put anything into anything. Might get back in when things trend down and stabilize, and then sit on it until the next pump, if and when that ever happens.
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i think you made a pretty good choice and there really is always a regret you didnt make as much as you could have but you cant avoid that. i used to mine multiple ethereum a day but of course sold most of it when it originally ran up to $20. i could have a mill from crypto if i played everything perfectly but that is a impossible goal for anyone.
 
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