You’ll Need 165Mbps Internet in Just 6 Years

MajorDomo

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A new study shows that today’s users' appetites for data consumption is on the rise at about 40% per year. Considering that if the data usage continues to grow at the present rate, the basic requirement for problem-free personal Internet use will be 165Mbps by 2020. Good luck with that. :eek:

By 2020, the study predicts, the average household will require 8GB of down data per day, and 3GB of up
 

sfsuphysics

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And big cable giants will miraculously be able to provide this to you without any major changes to their infrastructure. Of course this tier of service will cost $199.95, but you'll get bundled TV and phone for only $299.95/month (for the first 6 months, after which regular charges apply). And don't worry about the 250GB data cap, only the top 2% of customers exceed that anyways.
 

CaptNumbNutz

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BHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

I don't doubt their findings so much as I doubt the ISP's willingness to meet that sort of demand. Average of 165mbps internet is never going to happen in this decade.
 

arnemetis

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You can't assume bandwith needs will continue to rise linearly. In recent years the common person has discovered streaming video, and sources of higher quality video have come out to meet demand. Video being a previously consumed medium by the masses, it just changed from cable/satellite to internet. Previously, the average person barely used their connection at all, so yes there would be a sharp increase recently. There's really nothing currently on the horizon to justify a continued increase. Also I don't like relating bandwith and data consumed so closely. That 8gb/day download could be done on a 1mbit line right now. Sure would be nice to have it done faster, but since the future is looking like 100% LTE to the home as the new source of internet, with all isp's abandoning land line internet connections, I would say what will actually happen is the average use will drop like a rock, and consumers will have to drastically lower their expectations. The golden age of the net is behind us.
 

brycejones

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You can't assume bandwith needs will continue to rise linearly. In recent years the common person has discovered streaming video, and sources of higher quality video have come out to meet demand. Video being a previously consumed medium by the masses, it just changed from cable/satellite to internet. Previously, the average person barely used their connection at all, so yes there would be a sharp increase recently. There's really nothing currently on the horizon to justify a continued increase. Also I don't like relating bandwith and data consumed so closely. That 8gb/day download could be done on a 1mbit line right now. Sure would be nice to have it done faster, but since the future is looking like 100% LTE to the home as the new source of internet, with all isp's abandoning land line internet connections, I would say what will actually happen is the average use will drop like a rock, and consumers will have to drastically lower their expectations. The golden age of the net is behind us.

Try streaming that 4K video at 1 mbps.
 

CaptNumbNutz

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And big cable giants will miraculously be able to provide this to you without any major changes to their infrastructure. Of course this tier of service will cost $199.95, but you'll get bundled TV and phone for only $299.95/month (for the first 6 months, after which regular charges apply).
Ain't that the truth. The pricing will vary based on the market and other competitors, but I don't doubt they will charge an arm and a leg when there are no other competitors.

ISP's do seem to have this miraculous ability to suddenly free up bandwidth. I live in Kansas City, and a short while after they announced google fiber, TWC raised the top speed to 50mb and lowered the price. They made a huge deal with promos and everything, then managed to lock all those people into contracts.
 

Spazturtle

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Yeah I would like to see the average person try and stream 4K 60FPS 3D uncompressed video on their current line.
 
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^+1 Comcast recently bumped Blast speeds to 120mbps out of no where and for no reason. The original Blast package was 50 down 10 up and I consistently got 55/11, then they upped it to 120/10 and I consistently get 122/11 now, with no change in price.
 

Sturmangriff

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I'd be less surprised if by 2020 families were limited to 165GB per month instead of having 165Mbps speed in the US. We are heading in the wrong direction on this road and unfortunately I don't see it changing any time soon...
 

arnemetis

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That's the thing guys. Look how long it took for consumers to even consider streaming hd vs sd. 90% of the time you can't get hd streams TODAY. No one is going to have 4k streaming mass marketed in 6 years, nor will there be enough content. This study was for the masses, not for us in the know.
 

Sixthsense

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And big cable giants will miraculously be able to provide this to you without any major changes to their infrastructure. Of course this tier of service will cost $199.95, but you'll get bundled TV and phone for only $299.95/month (for the first 6 months, after which regular charges apply). And don't worry about the 250GB data cap, only the top 2% of customers exceed that anyways.

Only in murica
 

Spazturtle

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That's the thing guys. Look how long it took for consumers to even consider streaming hd vs sd. 90% of the time you can't get hd streams TODAY. No one is going to have 4k streaming mass marketed in 6 years, nor will there be enough content. This study was for the masses, not for us in the know.

This is only really an issue in the US. You have regulations where you shouldn't have and no regulations where you should have.
 

Wierdo

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Could this mean Europe is the technology market of the future? Or will municipal broadband suddently take off and give the Netflixes the market it needs to grow?

We know the monopolies will throttle and quota us into the stone age as they attempt to cash in on every byte, so something crazy's gotta happen, maybe like declare telcos common carrier and force them to lease the last mile to open the market etc. Fat chance.
 

nutzo

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And if the number of people buying tablets keeps increasing at the current rate, 140% of the population will own one by 2020.

These types of number eventually level out.
I doubt if the average internet connection will even be doubled by 2020
 

sfsuphysics

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I'd say it's more about caps than bandwidth going forward.
Actually the way the major ISPs are handling data, I'd say it's more about if they'll cripple your connection if you're trying to get data from a place that didn't pay for "fast lane" access.

Yeah I would like to see the average person try and stream 4K 60FPS 3D uncompressed video on their current line.
This statement is why I don't buy that value they give, hell they say in the article you need 15.3Mbps down today to get by "without a headache". I think it's more a matter of whether or not you've been spoiled with fast connection, anyone who's gone from any broadband line to dialup (because that's what you're grandma has and she wants you to update windows...) will feel like you might as well fly to Redmond, WA burn a copy of the update and fly back. However if you've never really gotten used to the speed, you're not going to feel like you "need it". I've been relatively "lucky" in that I've been stuck with DSL lines, so even today at 6Mbps which is about 2.5 times slower than "getting by without a headache" speeds I don't get a headache from using it. I realize when I watch youtube videos I'll make sure it only goes to 720p (youtube is nice in that it will auto adjust based on speed too) provided I'm not downloading anything at the time. So yeah I can't stream 4K 60FPS 3D uncompressed video, but I also don't feel like I need to either.
 

Ryokurin

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^+1 Comcast recently bumped Blast speeds to 120mbps out of no where and for no reason. The original Blast package was 50 down 10 up and I consistently got 55/11, then they upped it to 120/10 and I consistently get 122/11 now, with no change in price.

Officially it's just for Double and Triple Play customers, and other places only if you ask them. Charter is really the only one that's bumping all of their 30mbps customers to 100mbps silently.
 

PCunicorn

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Average speed in the US in 2008 (according to several sources): about 5 Mbps
Average speed now in the US (according to Ookla):25 Mbps

Thats a 5x increase. We could very well get another 5X increase by 2020 and have 120Mbps average. But thats still not 160. But that doesnt reay matter, since I seriously doubt we will meed over 40 Mbps.
 

gabhpr

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Could this mean Europe is the technology market of the future? Or will municipal broadband suddenly take off and give the Netflixes the market it needs to grow?

We know the monopolies will throttle and quota us into the stone age as they attempt to cash in on every byte, so something crazy's gotta happen, maybe like declare telcos common carrier and force them to lease the last mile to open the market etc. Fat chance.

Maybe in Democrat controlled states. Republicans have already outlawed municipal broadband in the majority of red states
 

gabhpr

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.


This statement is why I don't buy that value they give, hell they say in the article you need 15.3Mbps down today to get by "without a headache". I think it's more a matter of whether or not you've been spoiled with fast connection, anyone who's gone from any broadband line to dialup (because that's what you're grandma has and she wants you to update windows...) will feel like you might as well fly to Redmond, WA burn a copy of the update and fly back. However if you've never really gotten used to the speed, you're not going to feel like you "need it". I've been relatively "lucky" in that I've been stuck with DSL lines, so even today at 6Mbps which is about 2.5 times slower than "getting by without a headache" speeds I don't get a headache from using it. I realize when I watch youtube videos I'll make sure it only goes to 720p (youtube is nice in that it will auto adjust based on speed too) provided I'm not downloading anything at the time. So yeah I can't stream 4K 60FPS 3D uncompressed video, but I also don't feel like I need to either.
Your attitude is the reason why Europe and Asia have already passed us by.
 

Wierdo

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And if the number of people buying tablets keeps increasing at the current rate, 140% of the population will own one by 2020.

These types of number eventually level out.
I doubt if the average internet connection will even be doubled by 2020

It's probably a chicken and egg thing, I'm guessing telcos will slow adoption of future products and services due to same current market constraints - low speed, high prices, low quotas, slow lanes etc.

So we may potentially end up with segmented levels of service, a "4k/8k" one for Europe and select US cities/fiberhoods, and the current SD/HD stuff for rest of the country.

Just guessing, maybe in 6 years 4k will turn out to be a fad or niche as well, or maybe cloud market will not take off, who knows.
 

Ducman69

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If people can queue up tasks so they are downloading/uploading all hours of the day, such as say how peer-to-peer works, then this isn't a problem at all. The only problem even with today's technology becomes artificial data caps and limitations on performance implemented by ISPs that want to discourage people from getting their entertainment on the internet and buying their overpriced TV/movie rental services.
 

-Strelok-

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Officially it's just for Double and Triple Play customers, and other places only if you ask them. Charter is really the only one that's bumping all of their 30mbps customers to 100mbps silently.

You mean 60mbps? I wonder when I'm gonna see that here though. They should really fix their HD before they work on internet though, because the HD is pretty bad.
 

maxius

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keep physical media alive and we wont need gb to the home the world is all about streaming shit you do not own and thus replaceing the need for physical media and our ultimate control over what we purchase
 

dandirk

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And big cable giants will miraculously be able to provide this to you without any major changes to their infrastructure. Of course this tier of service will cost $199.95, but you'll get bundled TV and phone for only $299.95/month (for the first 6 months, after which regular charges apply). And don't worry about the 250GB data cap, only the top 2% of customers exceed that anyways.

Broadband has cost me between $50-60 since 56k. Only thing has changed has been faster speeds.
 

whiz187

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If you are really a lucky dog you can get AT&T 1.5 mbs. With the phone and DSL it will cost about 30 bucks a month or more. And if you are 6 feet to far from the CO you can have 765 kb.
 

niconx

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... and the telecoms refuse to upgrade to pure fiber, refuse to upgrade backbones, and only purchase competing companies and content companies. Seems like a good plan, for them to have a reason to meter usage. Regulate them as a utility.
 

Farkle

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Here's hoping on better compression algorithms (and codecs) to not make this true. Requiring >50mbit in 6 years, with how low the upstream portion of most async connections are in broadband today -- yeeeuck.
 

Ultima99

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It really depends on how much and what quality of video is being streamed.
 

quimby999

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I can actually survive on zero data most days my data usage is only a hobby for me and not a necessity.
 

quimby999

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My ISP is the county owned Telco who is running fiber to every home in the county, which gives us speeds up to 100 mps with future upgrades possible by changing their equipment, but I think its more dependent on the speed of the data stream coming into their equipment, they can pretty much put any speed on their local network thru the fiber but will the stuff from the outside be fast enough ?
 

quimby999

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The real reason Europe and Asia have passed us by is that they are much smaller countries and infrastructure is much easier to install, large areas of the west of our country are empty space, we have huge areas to span with the backbones and his is not cheap that being said I live in the middle of the northern Nevada high desert 60 miles from any big city and I have 100 mb service available for 59.99 thanks to a forward looking local Telco. in most other countries the government is the ISP in the US there are far too many players and they usually have a monopoly in different areas no real incentive to bring true high speed service to their customers . there are still many rural areas with no broadband service because there us no incentive to bring it there .
 
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