Windows 10 To Overtake Windows 7 Within A Year

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I'm not sure how smart it is to make predictions like this based on extrapolation. Taking an educated guess would be a better way to determine when Windows 10 will finally overtake Windows 7. I'm going to say two years. What's your guess?

Windows 10 is an unqualified success. The company's launch with a year of free upgrades fueled adoption. As Net Market Share's chart shows, Windows 10 has been making reasonably steady inroads. Growth slowed after the free period ended, but it's still aiming itself upward and to the right. Extrapolating those adoption lines, we can see that Windows 10 is on track to overtake Windows 7. While the December 2017 date shown in the graph might be a bit optimistic, there's no doubt that a year or so from now, the dominant desktop OS will be Windows 10, not Windows 7.
 
Not so sure about within a year. I'm thinking some time in 2018 which is when I'd expect to see enterprises get serious about migrations.
 
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My guess is 5 to 10 years. Windows 7 is going to have to fall off a cliff to meet Windows 10 down below for it to surpass Windows 7.
 
Who knows, who cares. In 2025, Windows 7 will be an afterthought like Windows XP is today.
 
i mean, you give it away for free i suspect it will be an "unqualified success" whatever that means.
 
Following his graph, Windows 7 would go from 52% to around 40% (-12%) and Windows 10 would go from 12% to around 40% (+28%)

Sounds like he doesn't have enough data because the numbers don't add up. Something else has to decline in order for that 10 number to increase more than 7 decreases.
 
bigdogchris said:
Following his graph, Windows 7 would go from 52% to around 40% (-12%) and Windows 10 would go from 12% to around 40% (+28%)

Sounds like he doesn't have enough data because the numbers don't add up. Something else has to decline in order for that 10 number to increase more than 7 decreases.
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All new computers will come with windows 10, and you can't buy windows 7 on new orders. I assume he's counting on that.
 
heatlesssun said:
I'm thinking some time in 2018 which is when I'd expect to see enterprises get serious about migrations.
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Why 2018? Is that the year Windows 7 stops working? No? Then why would Enterprise care, especially when 10 offers nothing new or compelling for businesses? Oh wait - Cortana and Metro10 Apps and Xbox Music and Telemetry (which can't be completely disabled even in Enterprise).

Yes in 2018 they'll be dumping 7 in DROVES and replacing it with a buggy, forever-beta Windows for no reason whatsoever.
 
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DPI said:
Why 2018? Is that the year Windows 7 stops working? No? Then why would Enterprise care, especially when 10 offers nothing new or compelling for businesses? Oh wait - Cortana and Metro10 Apps and Xbox Music and Telemetry (which can't be completely disabled even in Enterprise).

Yes in 2018 they'll be dumping 7 in DROVES for no reason whatsoever.
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Well, not happy about it, but our enterprise will be trying to deploy/adopt in 2017. I have no idea why they're doing this. But I feel it will increase support calls.
 
DPI said:
Why 2018? Is that the year Windows 7 stops working? No? Then why would Enterprise care, especially when 10 offers nothing new or compelling for businesses? Oh wait - Cortana and Metro10 Apps and Xbox Music and Telemetry (which can't be completely disabled even in Enterprise).

Yes in 2018 they'll be dumping 7 in DROVES and replacing it with a buggy, forever-beta Windows for no reason whatsoever.
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Enterprise deployments like the bank I'm at are a much different animal than what you're describing here, none of this is an issue. We pretty much have to start the process years out do move 200k machines like we did with XP to 7.
 
Not a chance. With the free upgrade window gone, most growth has happened. Consumers don't but new pcs regularly anymore, their phones do everything. Business is the only option for growth as new systems will only come with 10. There is quite literally nothing enticing about this upgrade that actually matters to most people.

Until Microsoft drops a forced update that supersedes any and all security systems in place and disables all windows 7 machines globally, it's going to be many years yet until 10 takes over.
 
arnemetis said:
Not a chance. With the free upgrade window gone, most growth has happened.
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The large growth rates on consumer side are over true, but that had nothing to do with the enterprise. That's where the bulk of the large outstanding growth will occur. And again, there are no issues with telemetry or forced updates in those environments that roll that stuff on their own like they have with Windows 7.
 
Unless corp adopts win10, its not going to over take win7. There will always be a giant blob of corp pcs that might last 5-10 years before they get replaced. Hell i bet a large chunk of corp desktops are still core2duos.
 
This is of course a unfair statement. Let's remember that Windows 7 did not use underhanded tactics to gain market share.

With that said, I have mostly moved to Windows 10. But I use a lite version that's been heavily modded
 
7 is now old enough that driver support of newer hardware is becoming a major problem. Adoption will accelerate from here. Quickly.
 
Win10 is a lot smoother upgrade for a Corp than XP to 7 was. My giant company already has win10 machines as beta tests in my office. I think we'll transition pretty quickly.
 
DracoDan said:
Where's Vista? lol...
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They changed the product name to Win7. Win7 is just a lightly tweaked version of Vista.

Microsoft played a trick on some people, they had them use Vista and give their opinion but they told them it was Win7. They all thought it was great and it was just Vista and not Win7.
 
I think the free upgrade program had a lot to do with those numbers. If MS wants to continue the upward trend, they should think about bringing it back in some fashion. Maybe not every PC in the market but maybe those running Win 7 Pro? Like "nightanole" said, the big numbers are from corporations who are never in a hurry to spend money if they don't have to. And old 1st gen i5's from 2008 still run word and excel about as fast as a shiny new PC.

rezerekted said:
They changed the product name to Win7. Win7 is just a lightly tweaked version of Vista.

Microsoft played a trick on some people, they had them use Vista and give their opinion but they told them it was Win7. They all thought it was great and it was just Vista and not Win7.
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That's true, and the same thing can basically be said from 8/8.1 to 10. The core is the same, they just slapped some fresh paint on the surface. But brand recognition is a real thing, and if product X has a bad rep, then it will be hated no matter what. But paint it pink and call it product Y and it could become a best seller. Seriously MS should just realize this and plan accordingly for it.
 
SvenBent said:
BeOS will prevail
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I'll update to windows 10 if they have another free update program in the future
 
amddragonpc said:
My guess is 5 to 10 years. Windows 7 is going to have to fall off a cliff to meet Windows 10 down below for it to surpass Windows 7.
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Not a prayer. Businesses are going to make the move starting next year (late next year, I suspect, but sooner if they hold machines more than 3 years), because support ends 1/2020.

As far as his extrapolation, I don't get why he's starting back in January. I'd start from July...maybe even August. Then again, as I said above, new business computers will come with 10 sometime in 2017 and after that ramps up in 2018, 7 becomes #2.
 
Advil said:
7 is now old enough that driver support of newer hardware is becoming a major problem. Adoption will accelerate from here. Quickly.
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Yeah, just look at gaming sites like this one now. No one is using anything but 10 forever reviewing and testing. For new gaming hardware and modern games I don't think 7 makes any sense even now for the typical gaming enthusiast.
 
DPI said:
Why 2018? Is that the year Windows 7 stops working? No? Then why would Enterprise care, especially when 10 offers nothing new or compelling for businesses? Oh wait - Cortana and Metro10 Apps and Xbox Music and Telemetry (which can't be completely disabled even in Enterprise).

Yes in 2018 they'll be dumping 7 in DROVES and replacing it with a buggy, forever-beta Windows for no reason whatsoever.
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Yes, they will, unless they're dumping it for Linux, Windows 8 (not a prayer) or Apple (unlikely). A machine purchased in 2018 that's not 10 is going to lose support in 2 years or less (unless said companies are going to pay insanely high support fees to MS to continue using 7).
 
nilepez said:
Yes, they will, unless they're dumping it for Linux, Windows 8 (not a prayer) or Apple (unlikely). A machine purchased in 2018 that's not 10 is going to lose support in 2 years or less (unless said companies are going to pay insanely high support fees to MS to continue using 7).
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Perhaps. But I've also learned never to underestimate the ability of companies to wait until the last minute - and then keep waiting.

And a lot of companies are hoping that by waiting until the last minute, it will give Microsoft more time to either:

A) fix the unfinished, perpetual-beta 10 and its identity crisis of mobile and marketing features as it exists today, or
B) return to sanity and build a proper successor to 7 that respects users, dumps the Franken-UI and mobile cr(apps), restores some user control and makes the spying optional
 
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Advil said:
7 is now old enough that driver support of newer hardware is becoming a major problem. Adoption will accelerate from here. Quickly.
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Major problem for whom? I highly doubt that of all things it'll be lack of driver support that finally moves mountains and gets these blue and green lines to converge. It didn't mean much for XP. It'll mean even less for 7. Major devices are still shipping with 7, 8.1 and 10 drivers. Going to be a long time before major devices ship with 10-only drivers. Enthusiasts buying the latest CPU & Motherboards every 6 months are edge cases.

At the current rates, it'll be 5-10 years before 10 catches up with 7 unless MS does something drastic or just resorts back to tricking unsuspecting users.

6d9S0e7.png
 
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DPI said:
If you say so. But I've also learned never to underestimate the ability of companies to wait until the last minute - and then keep waiting.
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Maybe for some places, but it's a different world at banks. Windows 7 will be gone when it stops receiving extended support. And I'm pretty sure that it will go beyond 2020, but even it does we're planning to be off 7 by 2020. Unless something big comes up that's the plan. We've already started with smaller migrations this year and that'll ramp up through next year with regular phased in upgrades starting in 2018.

And a lot of companies are hoping that by waiting until the last minute, it will give Microsoft more time to either:

DPI said:
A) fix the unfinished, perpetual-beta 10 and its identity crisis of mobile and marketing features as it exists today, or
B) return to sanity and build a proper successor to 7 that respects users, dumps the Franken-UI and mobile cr(apps), restores some user control and makes the spying optional
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Nothing here is an issue for Enterprise users.
 
Advil said:
7 is now old enough that driver support of newer hardware is becoming a major problem. Adoption will accelerate from here. Quickly.
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This.
Plus Microsoft will continue to degrade the update process on windows 7 until it is completely unusable.
Leaving most with no choice but to switch to Windows 10 or live with a buggy unpatched Windows 7.

Luckily I have access to Windows 10 Enterprise.
Over the past few months, all new systems (and most older systems I redeployed) have been running Windows10.
I'll be replacing most the laptops over the next couple years, and they will all be Running Windows 10.

However, some will still be on Windows 7 (including a few running the 32 bit version) due to some old custom software.
Hoping to push management to finally replace it, as it's costing more and more IT $ to support and keep running.
 
Burticus said:
I think the free upgrade program had a lot to do with those numbers. If MS wants to continue the upward trend, they should think about bringing it back in some fashion. And old 1st gen i5's from 2008 still run word and excel about as fast as a shiny new PC.
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They should make Windows 10 home (spyware edition) available for free to anyone with a Windows Vista or better license.
There would be another jump in the Windows 10 numbers as people refurb/update old systems with a fresh Windows 10 install.
I've installed Windows 10 on a number of old systems (core 2's), and it feels faster than Windows 7 on the same hardware.
Take a 7 or 8 year old laptop, and put a fresh install of Windows 10, and it's now a usable system again (for someone who just needs email/web/facebook)
 
nutzo said:
They should make Windows 10 home (spyware edition) available for free to anyone with a Windows Vista or better license.
There would be another jump in the Windows 10 numbers as people refurb/update old systems with a fresh Windows 10 install.
I've installed Windows 10 on a number of old systems (core 2's), and it feels faster than Windows 7 on the same hardware.
Take a 7 or 8 year old laptop, and put a fresh install of Windows 10, and it's now a usable system again (for someone who just needs email/web/facebook)
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The earliest Vista era hardware will be 10 years old this coming year and the install base of Vista is so small offering 10 for free to those users would account for little at best. If you have a 10 year PC, especially a laptop, an upgrade at this point is really the only viable option, the hardware is just so much better now.

I would agree that a fresh copy of 10 can make a lot of older hardware at least feel faster. Some of that is clearly just getting rid of a lot junk on older systems though.
 
Stoly said:
Heck in 6 months Linux will overtake windows. Mark my words :D:D
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Heh, it has on my home systems! I've been running Mint linux for about a year now and it's giving me a lot less problems than Windows 10 has. The only real issue is that only about a third of my Steam games are available under linux.
 
sadsteve said:
Heh, it has on my home systems! I've been running Mint linux for about a year now and it's giving me a lot less problems than Windows 10 has. The only real issue is that only about a third of my Steam games are available under linux.
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If you're not into the latest and greatest games or higher end commercial software or more exotic hardware, Linux would probably be fine for most.
 
DPI said:
Perhaps. But I've also learned never to underestimate the ability of companies to wait until the last minute - and then keep waiting.

And a lot of companies are hoping that by waiting until the last minute, it will give Microsoft more time to either:

A) fix the unfinished, perpetual-beta 10 and its identity crisis of mobile and marketing features as it exists today, or
B) return to sanity and build a proper successor to 7 that respects users, dumps the Franken-UI and mobile cr(apps), restores some user control and makes the spying optional
Click to expand...
They're going to change. MS is not going to extend 7 support and most companies aren't going to toss money out to support an old OS indefinitely. And there's just not a huge difference between this OS and 7 (from a desktop user's perspective). My 80 year old dad had very few problems...and I backed his system up before the upgrade, so he had (and still has) the option of going back to 7 and has never done so.

Mom (roughly same age) had 2 or 3 issues that required a quick google search to fix and/or explain how it works in 10 (don't remember what they were, but they were minor enough that she didn't ask me for 3 months). This is good, because I didn't install teamviewer on either machine ;)
 
heatlesssun said:
The earliest Vista era hardware will be 10 years old this coming year and the install base of Vista is so small offering 10 for free to those users would account for little at best. If you have a 10 year PC, especially a laptop, an upgrade at this point is really the only viable option, the hardware is just so much better now.

I would agree that a fresh copy of 10 can make a lot of older hardware at least feel faster. Some of that is clearly just getting rid of a lot junk on older systems though.
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Probably older than that. As I recall, they sold XP machines with a free upgrade in the fall of 2006 and I know I upgraded existing H/W to run the Beta/RC, but once the RTM came, I bailed until that summer when some important hotfixes were released. I guess I could test this out, however, if I installed Vista on an SSD (sorry, but I don't do Boot spinners) on my 10 year old desktop that I use as a file server. I bet it would run 10 OK with the original E4300 and an even older X800XL video card.

Nevertheless, almost nobody is running vista, so it's not going to help them that much.
 
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