Windows 10 Continues to Close In on Windows 7, Will Overtake It Soon

Discussion in 'HardForum Tech News' started by Megalith, Aug 5, 2018.

  1. Megalith

    Megalith 24-bit/48kHz Staff Member

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    While the original target has long sailed, NetMarketShare’s latest numbers suggest Windows 10 will finally overtake Windows 7… sometime soon: the former reported an increase of 0.87 percentage points, while the latter dropped 0.51. BetaNews thinks it’ll happen in November.

    In July, Windows 10 went from 35.71 percent to 36.58 percent, an increase of 0.87 percentage points. That’s down from the 0.97 percentage points it grew in June, but shows that the OS is still packing on share at a steady rate.
     
  2. heatlesssun

    heatlesssun [H]ard as it Gets

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    It was always a matter of not if but when as enterprises are adopting Windows 10. And that's how it's always worked, unsuccessful versions of Windows don't get widespread enterprise adoption and successful ones do. And it's generally a case of practicality. Once 7 does out of extended support, and while I think Microsoft will extended that beyond 2020 it ain't going to be like is was with XP.
     
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  3. Nenu

    Nenu [H]ardened

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    When something is forced to become inevitable, its inevitable it will come to pass.
     
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  4. Nenu

    Nenu [H]ardened

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    Although...
    we can enjoy computing for a bit longer if we use other OSs.
     
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  5. Simmonz

    Simmonz 2[H]4U

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    Windows 10 may be growing but many are not enjoying it. Alternatives are growing as well.
     
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  6. mjz_5

    mjz_5 2[H]4U

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    There are no alternatives unfortunately
     
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  7. Simmonz

    Simmonz 2[H]4U

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    There is for me and many others. Maybe not for you but oh well.
     
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  8. nilepez

    nilepez [H]ardForum Junkie

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  9. Simmonz

    Simmonz 2[H]4U

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    On your own link both MacOS and Linux have grown. Any growth is welcome, whether it is 0.03% or 20%. Even the fact that Microsoft came out with being able to install Linux from within Windows shows how much they are worried about the growth of Linux. Just as when Apple released boot camp. You don't make it easier to install a competitor if it isn't what people want. Mac users wanted Windows more just as Windows users were wanting Linux more.

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/218089/global-market-share-of-windows-7/

    On that site if you look at the last 5 years Linux has grown from 0.88% to 1.71. To over double in 5 years is not a good leap ? Stats are always going to vary on this subject but to think Linux hasn't grown over time is something even fan boys should be able to agree on.
     
    Last edited: Aug 5, 2018
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  10. matt167

    matt167 Gawd

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    Windows 7 is the reason I have not ditched my cheapo X58 Dell T3500.. I'm itching to build but having to switch to Win 10 just keeps me upgrading and tweaking the old thing..

    Still, building a new old box, will cost more than a new Ryzen 2600 system so I do feel kind of torn, and am learning to deal with Win 10 on an old laptop that I have. I may eventually cave but only for modern hardware
     
  11. darckhart

    darckhart Limp Gawd

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    It's funny how they have to keep touting headlines like this that "win10 will soon overtake win7!" when EVERYONE would rather have win7 if given the choice. And knowing this, MS decided to make the decision to no longer sell win7. Not to mention that there's like 50 billion versions of win10. Way to make it easier to decide.
     
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  12. Exercate

    Exercate Limp Gawd

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    I think he just likes the view from behind!!!
     
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  13. THRESHIN

    THRESHIN 2[H]4U

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    you're not married are you?
     
  14. heatlesssun

    heatlesssun [H]ard as it Gets

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    If one has started using Windows 10 and taking advantage of its not that simple. Few would want to put Windows 7 on a 2 in 1 or use it with a 4k/ high-DPI screen over Windows 10. And Microsoft has always phased out sales of older operating systems over time as new ones came to market.
     
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  15. nilepez

    nilepez [H]ardForum Junkie

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    1. there's no growth in my link. A .3% delta is just noise.
    2. Market share fluctuates quite a bit with Linux. 7 years ago it was at 1% and I'm pretty sure at one point in the aughts desktop linux was at roughly 2% (though I'm having trouble finding stats from 2000-2010 :(

    Bottom line is that Linux has been between roughly 1-2% for at least 7 or 8 years. And honestly, even if you buy that it's .8% and is now at 1.7, it's not major player on the desktop. I wouldn't be surprised if most of those systems are in IT departments. I know we've got some devs that choose Linux, because it's easier to interface with the servers and the *nix System Admins all run Linux.
    I've heard Linux users make these claims about Linux for almost 20 years and it's not happening on the desktop. Maybe 20 years from now that will change, but as of now, it's not a major player in the USA and there's no indication that that is changing.
     
  16. heatlesssun

    heatlesssun [H]ard as it Gets

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    From a consumer perspective Linux suffers the chicken/egg problem. Not many typical users therefore not much 3rd party support. One thing that would help is if OEMs offered Linux at least as an option on more models than just a select handful and if you could buy them at a store.
     
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  17. DPI

    DPI Nitpick Police

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    It feels like we've been hearing this for three years.
     
    Last edited: Aug 6, 2018
  18. rudy

    rudy [H]ardForum Junkie

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    The best times for Linux are over, it was back when people were seriously thinking about switching some whole government organizations did. Back when steam though steamOS would be a big deal and that led to a bunch of game ports. But now steam seems perfectly happy to be on windows, some of those organizations have switched back and pretty much nothing is catalyzing change. The biggest change smart phones is pretty much over. There is one more catalyst for change coming, as things like Samsung DEX and other docs come into play we may see a mass movement away from people who buy traditional laptops.

    To me the fight between windows 7 and 10 is nothing. Like people arguing between a 2015 ford and a 2004 ford. Its all windows, more or less it all works pretty much the same. To the average user its just icons to click on. For me once you are in the windows camp you just go with the flow and the latest. people get really bent out of shape over stuff that is pretty meaningless. Oh they are using data, yep like your phone, your clock your fridge. Ultimately I can play games, and exchange office documents and do pretty much everything else with people still holding out on windows 7 from my windows 10 machines. Who cares! If you want the latest support and technology you need the latest OS though.
     
  19. heatlesssun

    heatlesssun [H]ard as it Gets

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    Yeah, just like the around three years that it took 7 to overtake XP in the Netmarketshare survey. 10 has been ahead of 7 in most other surveys for most of this year. At any rate, regardless of ones feelings about Windows 10, this just the normal process of Windows version migration that's happened before. Older version gets old, newer version takes its place.
     
  20. auntjemima

    auntjemima [H]ardness Supreme

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    While I agree with the majority of what you say about Windows, we both know the comparison from XP to 7 being three years is not a reasonable one.

    Windows 10 was given away for free for a year or more (correct?) and 7 wasn't.
     
  21. heatlesssun

    heatlesssun [H]ard as it Gets

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    Some mitigating factors though. New PC sales, which is by far the way most consumers get new Windows versions, were significantly higher at the launch of Windows 7 than Windows 10. At best the free upgrade was probably a wash with the difference in PC sales.
     
  22. auntjemima

    auntjemima [H]ardness Supreme

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    Yeah, after I posted I thought about that. Considering I've used that exact argument before lol...

    Oh well, too lazy to edit.
     
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  23. heatlesssun

    heatlesssun [H]ard as it Gets

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    LOL! It would be interesting to see the numbers and know just how much the aggressive push of 10 that first years affected adoption. I'm thinking it wasn't as significant as other think because the only way a version of Windows overtakes another is through enterprise adoption and the free year had little impact there.
     
  24. dexvx

    dexvx [H]ard|Gawd

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    Windows Subsystem for Linux (WSL) is certainly not installing Linux from within Windows. You're installing the user-mode side of Linux into Windows. So basically, instead of installing third party software like Cygwin or Ming (which may run into compatibility issues), I can just use WSL for user mode things. This in turn, makes it so I don't need a Linux workstation/VM to do ~90% of my work.

    I don't see Linux on desktop taking off because Linux is too fragmented. The only reason it took off on phones is because you have one authority (Google) that basically removed much of the fragmentation. And they also did loads of anti-competitive practices once they got established, but that's another story. For servers, most mid-large scale users don't care about fragmentation because they can just hire developers to take care of any issues.
     
  25. nilepez

    nilepez [H]ardForum Junkie

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    I can promise you that Heatless and I have been saying this year would be the year that Business would start going in big for 10 and low and behold that's what's happening.

    I'll repeat what I said years ago: businesses never jumps on a new version of Windows right away and generally don't change the OS unless they have to. 7 overtook XP roughly 2.5 years before EOL and assuming this article is roughly correct, it'll be 2.25 years before EOL that 10 overtakes 7's current EOL date. If OTOH, EOL is extended as XP was, then it' will be more than the 2.5 years before 7 is EOL.

    Or if we want to look at XP, 4 years after it was released, 2000 still reigned supreme: https://www.theregister.co.uk/2005/06/15/windows2000_nicely/


    edit: changed "big for 7" to "big for 10". Edited last sentence to make it clear it'd be MORE 2.5 years if the 7 EOL is extended.
     
    Last edited: Aug 6, 2018
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  26. nilepez

    nilepez [H]ardForum Junkie

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    It's reasonable, because marketshare on sites like netmarketshare.com are all about businesses. Home users make up a fairly small percentage of the overall desktop market.
     
  27. tetris42

    tetris42 [H]ardness Supreme

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    I'm honestly envious of your easy come, easy go approach to Windows. I rely on my computer to many different things and I've seen updates fuck things in the past on issues that take anywhere from months, years, to never to get resolved. The thought of moving my OS to that model is just a nightmare to me. I not only like, but rely on my computer not changing anything unless I authorize it, and having a recourse plan if something goes wrong. It's how I've always used computers and it's saved me on projects in the past.

    To throw all that away because it's more trendy for MS to constantly change things is a model I can never accept. I'll have to make it work the way I need it to, even if that leads to vulnerabilities elsewhere, I feel like I'm being given no choice. It's going to make the transition to 10 for me "challenging", to say the least.
     
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  28. BSmith

    BSmith [H]ard|Gawd

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    I will never have Windows 10 on any of my personal computers. I am really glad I am nearing retirement and will not have to deal with it in any other location.

    I'll continue with Windows 7 as long as the applications I need to use work on it. After that,..well,....I'll cross that bridge when I come to it. I'll be long retired then and may just ditch having a computer.
     
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  29. dandirk

    dandirk [H]ard|Gawd

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    Windows 10 get off my lawn!
     
  30. Simmonz

    Simmonz 2[H]4U

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    Good job moving the goal posts. We've gone from Linux has not grown to it may have grown bit you don't consider it growth and even if it has grown it isn't a major player in a specific country by your own invisible standards which no doubt may change in an instant.
     
  31. heatlesssun

    heatlesssun [H]ard as it Gets

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    In the 20+ years I've been aware of Linux the "Year of desktop Linux" Linux hasn't made any significant mainstream push into the desktop space. Not saying it hasn't grown but the lack of retail devices with Linux pre-installed means that it's not ending up in the hands of average consumers. Chromebooks could change that, Google is trying to make a push for them beyond the US educational market.
     
  32. katanaD

    katanaD [H]ard|Gawd

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    i have, at times, slowed my walk.. for just that reason

    ;)
     
  33. Lenard

    Lenard Limp Gawd

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  34. auntjemima

    auntjemima [H]ardness Supreme

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    Read. Comprehend. Reply.

    His quote asks what alternative is growing, not which alternative exists.
     
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  35. Lenard

    Lenard Limp Gawd

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    Sorry, I didn't think I would have to quote everything I was referencing since I was quoting the response to a response to a response, and not directly answering your question.

    I Read, I comprehended and then I replied. I should have quoted the other post too. You got me on that.

    Also, don't be snarky a dick. *winkyface*
     
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  36. auntjemima

    auntjemima [H]ardness Supreme

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    It's my nature, so no promises :kissy face:
     
  37. jamesv

    jamesv [H]Lite

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    I just installed another Windows 7 Pro on a C236/Xeon v6 Asus workstation.
    I’m not online except to update apps I use.
    I’ll wait a few more years to join the goat fuck.

    I went to 8.1 on 2 of my PCs just to get NVMe, then Micro$oft said 7 would get updated.
    I’m kind of use to their MO now.

    Maybe after 5 years it will be solid.
    Too many fellow DAW users are getting their dll’s disabled.
    I don’t have time to BETA test for App£€ or Micro$oft.
     
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  38. nilepez

    nilepez [H]ardForum Junkie

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    No I didn't. I just pointed out how little it's grown over a much longer period (since you brought up 5 years, which isn't really relevant to a discussion about growth in the wake of 10's release).

    In 2 years it hasn't grown at all. Using netstat (because I can go back to July 2015) it's gone from around 1.5% to 1.7% or about a 10% move. The problem is that that's well within the range it flucuates. If I look at it a year ago it was at 1.79% If I look at January this year it's 1.43%. That's why i say it's flat.

    Take heart. Ifyou look at Windows, it's down, but if netstat is to be believed, then most of that has gone to Macs, no *nix.

    It could change, but it's been almost 20 years of Desktop Linux is going to take over the world and it hasn't happened. I don't know a single non-technical person that runs Linux (and only a handful of technical peeps that do on their personal computers...almost all are *nix sys-Admins.
     
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  39. nilepez

    nilepez [H]ardForum Junkie

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    Nope, but it does mean it's not "growing" unless you're cherry picking dates, instead of looking a trend since 10 came out.
     
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  40. hdfreedom

    hdfreedom Limp Gawd

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    I don't believe any of it. Just more of Microsoft paying someone else to do their bidding by lying.