Will the next generation release of cards suffer the same shortage as the current gen?

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peppergomez

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Possibly a pointless question b/c nobody here can predict the future, but if I decide to just skip the latest AMD/NVIDIA offerings due to the inflated price and scarcity, I wonder what the changes of the next gen (4000 series for NVIDIA) suffering from the same issues as have plagued this last generation?

Or, stated another way: now is not a good time to buy a card. I sure hope that at some point in the future, it IS a good time to buy a card, be it the next gen.
 
I think in many ways it could less shortage and a more like in the past type of shortage:

  • No new console going out at the same time
  • Less Covid based disruptions / Covid based augmented demand
  • Follow a very popular generation of card instead of an historically unpopular generation of cards
Hard to see how it could get worse on the other direction of a perfect storm
 
You can't put the genie back into the bottle. We're screwed forever and forallways. Unless the next generation cards (or CPUs) are duds all the same filth that scalp anything on the internet they can will be all over the new hardware like corruption on politicians. Likewise for the growing number of gamers who're desperate to get a card without paying a scalper by trying to beat them at their own game. Those people won't delete their shiney new buybots before the next generation is released.
 
3080 on Steam survey doubled from Nov to Dec -> good indicator
3080 climb the survey more in 3 months than AMD RX5700 in 18 months -> indicator of sells. Does not show where these cards were sold. Nov .23%, Dec .47%. RX 5700 is at .21%.

Looking at BestBuy reviews, Ampere reviews especially FE models have a large quantity, while AMD is rather bleak. Another indicator I use.

Nvidia are selling a lot of cards it appears, where readily available besides Microcenters is the question. AMD does not appear to be selling as many cards.
 
peppergomez said:
Possibly a pointless question b/c nobody here can predict the future, but if I decide to just skip the latest AMD/NVIDIA offerings due to the inflated price and scarcity, I wonder what the changes of the next gen (4000 series for NVIDIA) suffering from the same issues as have plagued this last generation?

Or, stated another way: now is not a good time to buy a card. I sure hope that at some point in the future, it IS a good time to buy a card, be it the next gen.
Click to expand...

You will only know once features, performance and price (and problems) are published.
We are supposedly getting chiplet designs next time round (after the Ampere refresh) so there are a lot of unknowns.
Only insider information will get you answers right now, even then, without working silicon it might not be worth much.
 
I doubt it. Lots of people skipped Turing because of the higher prices, which in turn increased demand for ampere. Nvidia delivered a puny supply of 30xx series cards so supply was low. Combine that with the typical holiday demand spike and you have a really bad situation for anyone who wants to buy a card. That could happen with the next release, but assuming it's just a 30xx series refresh, probably not.
 
peppergomez said:
Possibly a pointless question b/c nobody here can predict the future, but if I decide to just skip the latest AMD/NVIDIA offerings due to the inflated price and scarcity, I wonder what the changes of the next gen (4000 series for NVIDIA) suffering from the same issues as have plagued this last generation?

Or, stated another way: now is not a good time to buy a card. I sure hope that at some point in the future, it IS a good time to buy a card, be it the next gen.
Click to expand...
Next gen? Like RDNA 3 and 4080 Linda Lovelace GPUs?
Yes, likely wont have the same scalper conditions as now. This became a perfect storm for many reasons includes Covid19, memory shortage , bots, bitcoin mining flakes ect.
If the gamers were the only ones trying to get cards, we would all have crossfire rigs.
This shortage has greatly soured my enthusiasm. I'm at a point of not caring at all.
Have tried all the Discord groups, Youtube drop videos and browser apps to the point its taking more memory to run my browser than AAA games.
And here I am 2 months later, no card and Micro Center telling me wait till April for availability . Been to MC 4 times, which is a 4 hour round trip. Yeah I think I am done with this generation, besides, only 24 games support RT. I think I could invest my time and money wisely in other directions than support this.
I think I'll walk away from games and new hardware for a while.
 
griff30 said:
Next gen? Like RDNA 3 and 4080 Linda Lovelace GPUs?
Yes, likely wont have the same scalper conditions as now. This became a perfect storm for many reasons includes Covid19, memory shortage , bots, bitcoin mining flakes ect.
If the gamers were the only ones trying to get cards, we would all have crossfire rigs.
This shortage has greatly soured my enthusiasm. I'm at a point of not caring at all.
Have tried all the Discord groups, Youtube drop videos and browser apps to the point its taking more memory to run my browser than AAA games.
And here I am 2 months later, no card and Micro Center telling me wait till April for availability . Been to MC 4 times, which is a 4 hour round trip. Yeah I think I am done with this generation, besides, only 24 games support RT. I think I could invest my time and money wisely in other directions than support this.
I think I'll walk away from games and new hardware for a while.
Click to expand...

Or, if you've got a card that's perfectly capable of handling a lower resolution than 4K, you'll be fine for as long as you want. I'm in that group of gamers that refuses to support scalpers, is angry at Nvidia/AMD, and will not go above MSRP. And to an above poster's credit, this could continue through multiple release cycles. Until they figure out that this is harming their market, and until people quit support scalpers, there's no reason for this to end. Owing to the pandemic, COVID definitely had an impact. But, at some point things will level off: Either people will wise up and quit supporting scalpers and manufacturers will produce more supply. When scalpers can't sell, that's it. Fuck 'em.
 
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