Where is this urgency for new GPUs coming from?

sk3tch

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An entire industrial evolution occurred in the span of about 6 months. The pandemic spurred real change in the way we work and how people live.
 
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I had no urgency until I saw how Cyberpunk wrecks my 1080 Ti (Watchdogs Legion also allegedly wrecks video cards, but I don't like Ubisoft games, so idc). I am really not excited to try new releases that will be optimized for new console gens.
I just want to continue playing video games on my 3440x1440 at 120+ fps, without the graphics looking terrible, because there is no point in upgrading without decent display technology being available for PC monitors.
My issue is compiled with the fact that, besides getting used to fairly high FPS, my monitor also has some issues when it is running games at 60 fps. i.e some flicker, and some ghosting, (MPG341CQR)
 

RogueTrip

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GPUs have had awful pricing for years and over inflated. I understand a $1200 2080ti is now matched with a $500 3070. It LOOKS like good value so i see the demand. Sadly i feel like they are still bad price and performance. There should be no reason in 2020 why 4k isn't being crushed by gpus and this is not the case. Nvidia still is limiting VRAM too much as an example and will shorten useful life of the cards.


I want to upgrade but glad they are OOS so I can wait for the TI cards to release. Also waiting till around 2022 to upgrade my 4790k when pcie5/ddr5 become standard.
 
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All that makes sense.

Speaking of availability, is there any general consensus/info from NVIDIA or AMD on when the newer cards will be readily available?
no, unless you’re foolish enough to believe random you tubers claiming an influx of supply coming in November, December, and January.
 

Mchart

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GPUs have had awful pricing for years and over inflated. I understand a $1200 2080ti is now matched with a $500 3070. It LOOKS like good value so i see the demand. Sadly i feel like they are still bad price and performance. There should be no reason in 2020 why 4k isn't being crushed by gpus and this is not the case. Nvidia still is limiting VRAM too much as an example and will shorten useful life of the cards.


I want to upgrade but glad they are OOS so I can wait for the TI cards to release. Also waiting till around 2022 to upgrade my 4790k when pcie5/ddr5 become standard.
People shit on the 2080ti all the time, but always forget it came out in fall of 2018. Sure, at the time it wasn't a massive upgrade over the 1080ti, but it was still 40% faster, not to mention the DLSS/RT support.

It's lasted me over two years, and still has enough VRAM. Sure, I could have stuck with my 1080ti, but I wouldn't be playing Cyberpunk with nearly the same level of settings. This thing will easily last me until fall 2021, a total of three years playing every new release game with fairly high settings at 4k.

And I agree, the new 3x00 series either has too little VRAM, or, quickly scales to insane with the 3090 of too much. The 3070 should have been 10GB, and the 3080 should have been like 14-16GB or in that range.

I do with I could find a 3080 though at normal retail price. If I could get one and flip my 2080ti I wouldn't be spending that much cash to upgrade. 2080ti's are going for decent cash due to the shortage right now. The idiots who sold their 2080ti's back in Sep/Oct for like $400 lost a lot of cash.
 

Mchart

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IMO, this is an easy button boogy man explanation for the shortage. Serious mining farms aren't even using GPU's anymore.

The simple explanation is that a very small number of people haven't been upgrading their GPU's over the past 3-4 years. Now that there are games that have finally made a huge swath of GPU's obsolete, people across the board at every price point are finally upgrading. Couple that with COVID and everyone being locked up? Yeah.

Almost every non-Hard person I know is still sitting on GPU's from like 4-5 years ago, and they are all finally upgrading. It makes sense too, because most people are still running 1080p HDTV/Displays, and a 4-6 year old GPU was largely running common AAA titles just fine at that resolution up until now.
 

x509

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IMO, this is an easy button boogy man explanation for the shortage. Serious mining farms aren't even using GPU's anymore.

The simple explanation is that a very small number of people haven't been upgrading their GPU's over the past 3-4 years. Now that there are games that have finally made a huge swath of GPU's obsolete, people across the board at every price point are finally upgrading. Couple that with COVID and everyone being locked up? Yeah.

Almost every non-Hard person I know is still sitting on GPU's from like 4-5 years ago, and they are all finally upgrading. It makes sense too, because most people are still running 1080p HDTV/Displays, and a 4-6 year old GPU was largely running common AAA titles just fine at that resolution up until now.
Whatever the reason, I'm resigned to keeping my 8 year old 660 Ti (but I'm not a gamer) until next February or March at the earliest. :wtf: I don't want to be sucker-punched into buying at some of the ridiculous prices I see on fleabay or amazon.
 

Advil

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If you aren't even a gamer there's less than no reason to get involved in the bloody melee of trying to find a gpu right now.

Though if you are on a 660 Ti, once this mess finally breaks you'll be able to pick up a used 1070 or 1080 for about $100 if you just want something better with 8GB.
 

MHzTweaker

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IMO, this is an easy button boogy man explanation for the shortage. Serious mining farms aren't even using GPU's anymore.
Maybe so.... I tried mining for a while in 2017 before the bottom fell out.
There could be some teeth to what is about to happen here in December concerning Ethereum. When Ethereum 2.0 happens it becomes ASIC resistent again. It has been shown the RTX 3090 does about 122M/H mining Ethereum. I am not saying we're going to have 2017-18 all over again but that it could be contributing to what is happening. Yes, it is the perfect storm of product unobtanium: Next gen stuff with massive performance gains, too many people stuck at home with too much time, holiday buying season is upon us, many skipped the last generation and are ready and the damn scalpers. It's not tough to figure this one out.
 

Tup3x

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My old GTX 1070 was struggling at 1440p and it has served me for quite some time. RTX 3060 Ti is 2x improvement in performance and that made quite a difference. Should be good while waiting for RTX 4000 series heavy hitters.
 

Roy2001

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I decided to build a PC, for gaming purpose, after 18 years when I built one last time, because of Covid. So I have a PC up and running , but I don't have an old video card and badly need 3080.

I believe I am not alone.
 

JohnleMVP

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The stay at home boredom has created a lot of demand for entertainment (gaming) and collectibles (pokemon cards, sports cards, etc).

That and the 2000 series was a very skippable generation so some 1000 series owners have been waiting like 4 years for a upgrade.
 

Sir Beregond

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This is a multi-faceted issue.

On the Nvidia side, Turing was such a poor value; worst gen on gen performance increase yet highest prices and a shift in chips (anyone remember the 2070 having the 106 yet being the most expensive 70 class card?) that a lot of people on Pascal and even some Maxwell folks skipped it. On AMD's side, they didn't have anything for the high end for RDNA and many were waiting for Big Navi.

Then COVID happened and supply chains are borked. Lack of commercial flights too load cargo on necessitating expensive courier shipping to meet dates or else ship shipping which takes forever.

Then there is fab. And 7nm allocation at TSMC is split between PS5/XBOX SOCs, Zen 3, RDNA2, and others products. Not sure how Samsung 8nm is doing for Nvidia.

And people have been locked up at home all year and are looking to build.
 

Chelica

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Honestly, with the 3080 and the games I play, I can't see myself jumping on the 4000 series if there is one being released next year. 5000 series, maybe.
 

noko

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This is a multi-faceted issue.

On the Nvidia side, Turing was such a poor value; worst gen on gen performance increase yet highest prices and a shift in chips (anyone remember the 2070 having the 106 yet being the most expensive 70 class card?) that a lot of people on Pascal and even some Maxwell folks skipped it. On AMD's side, they didn't have anything for the high end for RDNA and many were waiting for Big Navi.

Then COVID happened and supply chains are borked. Lack of commercial flights too load cargo on necessitating expensive courier shipping to meet dates or else ship shipping which takes forever.

Then there is fab. And 7nm allocation at TSMC is split between PS5/XBOX SOCs, Zen 3, RDNA2, and others products. Not sure how Samsung 8nm is doing for Nvidia.

And people have been locked up at home all year and are looking to build.
You forgot a few more hangman tidbits:
  • Nvidia selling directly GPU's to mining AIBs (maybe really just China market AIBs, government data center???)
  • Lost at sea, there you go, going from China to Japan, wonder how many XBox/PS5s/CPUs/GPUs gone?
 
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thesmokingman

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No one is doing anything but hanging at home and playing video games. Walk into a Microcenter any time of the day and its packed. And since we're at home, zooming and gaming, we end up overbuilding rigs cuz well its an investment in us. Since you're now spending a gazillion more hours on the pc captively, throwing down on better gear is a worthwhile thing.
 

Sir Beregond

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You forgot a few more hangman tidbits:
  • Nvidia selling directly GPU's to mining AIBs (maybe really just China market AIBs, government data center???)
  • Lost at sea, there you go, going from China to Japan, wonder how many XBox/PS5s/CPUs/GPUs gone?
Yeah you are absolutely right, forgot to mention the mining thing.
 

LeftSide

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I don’t think we realized how much Intel releasing 4 core processors with 5% performance increase for a decade did to diminish the Enthusiast PC market. Building a new computer was boring, and rarely worth the money. I have friends still n sandy bridge.
I think a new Zen cpu that is faster single thread than Intel brought a lot enthusiasm back to the market. Add in an actual competitive GPU from AMD, and competitive pricing from Nvidia, and all my friends are talking about building a new PC right now. I believe we are also seeing the consolidation of chip manufacturing start to play a role as well. Intel can’t keep up with server demand, and all high end phones, GPUs, and non-Intel CPUs chips are manufactured at the same company.
Add in the pandemic, and it’s a perfect storm. Even power supplies are expensive and in short supply.
 

celwin

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All of the aforementioned reasons plus on very important one not mentioned. American impatience. We are a notoriously impatient country. We want our products now and do not want to wait months for it. Call us the super spoiled first world nation.
 

euskalzabe

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All of the aforementioned reasons plus on very important one not mentioned. American impatience. We are a notoriously impatient country. We want our products now and do not want to wait months for it. Call us the super spoiled first world nation.
Most people are like that these days, a direct effect of our technological interconnectedness. I see it most often in my young students - most of them don't think things through to envision bigger gains with a bit of patience. That said, being bothered by this situation is entirely voluntary: play the games you have for a few months, upgrade in the spring, and you'll never feel the annoyance. As you said, it's all about knowing to be patient and waiting for things to happen.
 

Endgame

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play the games you have for a few months, upgrade in the spring, and you'll never feel the annoyance. As you said, it's all about knowing to be patient and waiting for things to happen.
There is a complication with that. The group of guys (8 people) that I’m the “pc” guy for, are all running something from nehalems to ivy bridge, with vid cards ranging from 670s to 1080s. The nehalem in particular are showing their age - I OC’d all of them initially to 3.66ghz s as that could be done at a reasonable voltage, but even at that config none of them are stable anymore. These guys have essentially played out everything they have, and they see a narrow window where they can buy new systems and actually game on them before the vaccines are distributed and things start opening up and they don’t have time to game anymore.

Since they are coming from such old hardware, and the new stuff is impossible to get, I’ve been recommending 3900XTs, which have been pretty easy to get from micro center. Video cards have been much, much more of an issue. I’ve sold off my 1660 supers that I was using for folding, but I still have a few of the guys sitting on their old cards because the only new card we’ve been able to source is a 3090 FTW.

TLDR; if they wait, they may as well not buy at all.
 

euskalzabe

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TLDR; if they wait, they may as well not buy at all.
Good point, although if they’ve been waiting to buy since March... they’ve picked the worst possible moment to go ahead with a purchase. May actually as well not buy until next spring.
 
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Endgame

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Good point, although if Bryce been waiting to buy since March... they’ve picked the worst possible moment to go ahead with a purchase. May actually as well not buy until next spring.
Timing is My fault. I didn’t really start getting requests for systems until late July / august. At that point, I generally advised people to wait for the 30X0 series, and given the general release date of Zen 3 said October world be a good time to buy, unless they really wanted to buy right away. Had a couple guys actually buy case, power supply, ram, nvme ssd Early and then sit tight for release of the new stuff. ... not my best recommendation ever.
 

euskalzabe

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not my best recommendation ever.
Ah, don’t beat yourself about it, you’re trying to help people get nice PCs - I understand the sentiment, I’ve been doing the same with family and friends for years - but that doesn’t mean you can foresee giant shifts in market trends. Now in hindsight it seems pretty obvious, but looking at the past is always conveniently informed. They’ll get their parts in time. FYI they can check the EVGA website for GPUs and they’ll essentially be put in a waiting list to buy one, instead of playing the hunt for cards going one everywhere else. I’m tempted to register for a 3060 Ti, but want to see what the 3060 and AMD’s equivalent will offer...
 

x509

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Ah, don’t beat yourself about it, you’re trying to help people get nice PCs - I understand the sentiment, I’ve been doing the same with family and friends for years - but that doesn’t mean you can foresee giant shifts in market trends. Now in hindsight it seems pretty obvious, but looking at the past is always conveniently informed. They’ll get their parts in time. FYI they can check the EVGA website for GPUs and they’ll essentially be put in a waiting list to buy one, instead of playing the hunt for cards going one everywhere else. I’m tempted to register for a 3060 Ti, but want to see what the 3060 and AMD’s equivalent will offer...
I did register for a 3060 Ti on the EVGA website. Can't hurt, may even help. I just hope I don't miss their notification before the "window" expires. Thing is, I thought I would get either an Nvidia model or the EVGA model, based on features, price, and recommendations.

Honestly I'm getting tired of refreshing the BB and NE website pages every hour or so.
 

euskalzabe

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I did register for a 3060 Ti on the EVGA website. Can't hurt, may even help. I just hope I don't miss their notification before the "window" expires.
Certainly a good idea! I’m so tempted, but would rather only spend $300 on a GPU. And hey, if you can constantly refresh a website, you can check your email 3 times a day, the window is a healthy 8 hours before they release your spot in the queue!
 

x509

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Certainly a good idea! I’m so tempted, but would rather only spend $300 on a GPU. And hey, if you can constantly refresh a website, you can check your email 3 times a day, the window is a healthy 8 hours before they release your spot in the queue!
As long as they don't send out their notification at like, 1.30 am. :happy:
 

Sycraft

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It's nuts that these new cards are in such short supply. It's making me not even consider a new build. I'll just wait until whenever in 2021 that this supply issue isn't so acute. I know a game like Cyberpunk is making folks want to upgrade ASAP but hell that game will be a bug-filled mess for the better part of 2021 I will wager...so, without wanting to come off like a troll, what is fueling this sense of urgency for the impossible-to-find new cards from both AMD and NVIDIA? Like, folks waiting in long lines, etc. Don't get me wrong...I am really looking forward to gaming in 4K but it seems like you pay a hefty price - both in cash and in time and in troubleshooting/headaches (like with the LG CX48) - to join that club. So why not wait it out until said cards are available and the overall situation has stabilized?

I am not dunking on anyone and I know this is after all [H] but the supply>demand reality is nuts right now.
COVID largely. It isn't just video cards. Game consoles, both the new ones and the switch, iPhones, basically any sort of new consumer electronics toy, people want it and want it bad and there is short supply. There are three major subfactors in that:

1) Supply issues. COVID has created supply issues for electronics. They aren't doomsday issues like some predicted at the start, but it legitimately has slowed down supply chains. That slows down how fast you can get things made, and to the hands of the consumers and so on. So it did constrain supply some.

2) More disposable income. COVID has been a highly unequal situation, economically. For many people it has utterly screwed them. They've lost jobs with nothing on the horizon, they are facing evection when protections end, and a host of other shit. Real, real, bad. However for those that kept their jobs it has generally translated to more disposable income. The reason is that those jobs that got lost are from things that money isn't getting spent on as much anymore. If you aren't eating out, aren't going to movies, aren't traveling, etc, etc well that's a bunch more money you have. Makes expensive consumer good more affordable, in the relative sense.

3) The biggest though is just psychological. People have a pent up energy needing to do SOMETHING to buy SOMETHING to have something new. So they want these new toys and want them bad. Something maybe they were already excited for has now become overwhelming. Demand just went through the roof.

So all that then creates a perfect storm for a positive feedback loop where it gets worse: People are so ready for it they rush to buy is ASAP and everything gets napped up. Scalpers get in on the action too, of course (they always do) so stuff is out of stock immediately. This then pushes demand higher because now people start suffering from fear of missing out. People become less patient and want it now, worrying they may never get one if they don't, and people who were perhaps on the fence decide they need one because they can't miss the Next Big Thing(tm) which clearly this is because it is in such high demand.

The right answer is what you've said yourself: Just wait for it to all settle down. Despite what the doom n' gloomers on [H] say, this is not some situation that nVidia is creating on purpose. It will burn itself out. Supply will keep coming, demand will slowly get sated, and the frenzy will die down. When? Nobody can really say, there are too many variables. Probably fairly early in 2021.
 
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I'm playing tons of guitar and watching the entire series of The Expanse to occupy my time, and digging into my backlog of older unplayed games. No hurry.
 

Westwood

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Another thing I didn't account for is my PSU. 650W. So I'm going to have to get something a bit bigger as well. Just roll that right into the cost.
 

AzixTGO

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As far as I can remember there's always some issue at launch with getting cards. I think the real issue here is likely supply being weaker in addition to the new launch demand.
 

blackmomba

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Old cards have surged in value for some reason too

Bought a 1080ti last year around this time for 390

People in my area now asking no less than 550

Trend continues with pretty much everything

Only thing I've caught here and there were of course these damned rx570s and 580s. With mining making a comeback that might not last long either
 

kirbyrj

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Old cards have surged in value for some reason too

Bought a 1080ti last year around this time for 390

People in my area now asking no less than 550

Trend continues with pretty much everything

Only thing I've caught here and there were of course these damned rx570s and 580s. With mining making a comeback that might not last long either

The 580s are pretty good cards all things considered, especially at the price point. I've paid less than $100 for 4GB models now that they are mining obsolete (for the most part) for 6 months now. Great bang for the buck.
 

oldmanbal

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To give credit where credit is due, these new cards also are pretty fantastic. They are extremely fast and feature-rich--all of them. Combine that with a somewhat underwhelming prior generation and the holiday season, and it's not surprising there is demand.
The perfomance is irrelevant. Features are irrelevant. Nvidia just stopped ripping off their loyal customers and had to come back down to earth with pricing because AMD was going to be competitive. Nvidia sees the pressure AMD is putting on Intel and wanted to fire the first shot, because Intel lost 3 years due to complacency and AMD outpaced them on every front.

Because 3xxx series pricing was essentially cut in half, from what they had dictated the previous generation, the demand went through the roof. Factor in everything else not associated with brands or products going on in the world and you get a black hole of consumer hell.
 
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