When do you think the next round of consoles is coming?

Mr. Bluntman

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I personally think in between 2012 and 2014 based upon comments for execs from all three console manufacturers. Nintendo will probably be first out of the gate this time around since the Wii is so obsolete, but then again casual players don't know better nor care about things like better graphics. Sony will probably be the last to release a new system since Cell is giving their machine longer legs than the XBox 360.

You?
 

tuaarita

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Wii2 will be like Wii but current-gen graphics (last-gen when it launches) and other two consoles will be like Wii but with current-pc graphics. Announced in 2012.
 

BinarySynapse

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Sony and MS, probably 2015-16.. PS3 and 360 are still going strong. Nintendo.. probably 2012.
 

Rash

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i reckon a couple of years for MS and 3 for Sony home console. I think ill be missing home consoles out altogether if PSP2 is HD and dockable/dualshock comp etc
 

BinarySynapse

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Wow. I could see 2013-14 for Sony, but really?

They've already said they want it to last 10 years. That would put a new console in 2016-2017... so a year or two earlier than that isn't unrealistic at all. They spent a ton of money developing the PS3. The next console is going to cost a lot more if it's going to push the console to a new generation instead of upgraded PS3. They're not going to want to release a new console out into the wild when still haven't recouped their costs of the previous generation.
 

JohnleMVP

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I'm guessing 2013/2014.

This console generation has lasted longer than usual because the economy tanked and M$ and Sony spent a lot more than usual to develop the consoles and it took them much longer to recover the cost. I don't think M$ was planning for a 10 year console life cycle, but things are turning out to be in that ball park.

Another thing is developers don't really want new consoles. The more powerful the console is the more time and money it cost them to make games that take advantage of all that power. Games are already very expensive to make. I've heard it a few times from developers that the only thing they want is more memory as that would just make their lives easier. New more powerful consoles though would just make a lot more work for them.
 

BinarySynapse

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I'm guessing 2013/2014.

This console generation has lasted longer than usual because the economy tanked and M$ and Sony spent a lot more than usual to develop the consoles and it took them much longer to recover the cost. I don't think M$ was planning for a 10 year console life cycle, but things are turning out to be in that ball park.

Another thing is developers don't really want new consoles. The more powerful the console is the more time and money it cost them to make games that take advantage of all that power. Games are already very expensive to make. I've heard it a few times from developers that the only thing they want is more memory as that would just make their lives easier. New more powerful consoles though would just make a lot more work for them.

This generation isn't any longer than most of the previous four generations... yet.

Generation 3
1985-1989 ( 4 years )

Generation 4
1989-1995 ( 6 years )

Generation 5
1995-2001 ( 6 years )

Generation 6
2001-2005 ( 4 years )

Generation 7
2005-present ( 5 years )
 

Psychotext

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Sadly I don't see the next xbox / playstation until 2013 at the earliest now. Maybe we'll see the next Nintendo home console in 2012.
 

BinarySynapse

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Sadly I don't see the next xbox / playstation until 2013 at the earliest now. Maybe we'll see the next Nintendo home console in 2012.

I don't see how that's sad at all. It means my PS3 gets a lot more life for the dollar I spent on it before having to move on. New things are great.. but we don't need them yet. PC would gain a lot from a new generation, I admit, but the consoles themselves have a lot of life in them still.
 

Psychotext

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It's sad because the only reason I play anything on my consoles now is because the games are exclusive. My modestly powered PC is assfucking them when it comes to multiplatform titles... and that's putting it nicely. ;)

(Oh, and that's a problem for me because I hate messing around with my PC to get the best out of games... but I'm a graphics whore so I find myself not being able to help it)
 

Nightbird

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There's room for console-like mini-pcs in the near future too. If development can be done simultaneously for this and PCs, game development and console development costs would drop significantly. AMD is in a good position to build one using their upcoming CPU with integrated mainstream Direct X 11 GPU, problem is the OS though so they would have to partner with Microsoft for that expertise. Could be the next Xbox?
 

J Macker

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AMD is in a good position to build one using their upcoming CPU with integrated mainstream Direct X 11 GPU, problem is the OS though so they would have to partner with Microsoft for that expertise. Could be the next Xbox?

Microsoft explicity wanted to own the patents on the GPU for the 360, so even though ATI designed it, MS owns it and doesn't have to pay royalties. I don't understand that

I don't see that changing for the next Xbox. They've probably already started talks with AMD/ATI for the next cpu/gpu.
 

Mr. Bluntman

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Microsoft explicity wanted to own the patents on the GPU for the 360, so even though ATI designed it, MS owns it and doesn't have to pay royalties. I don't understand that

I don't see that changing for the next Xbox. They've probably already started talks with AMD/ATI for the next cpu/gpu.

Shit, ATi/AMD already has the contract for the GPU for the XBox Next/720/Whatthefuckever. Seems like they'd be a shoe in for the CPU portion also.
 

JohnleMVP

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Microsoft explicity wanted to own the patents on the GPU for the 360, so even though ATI designed it, MS owns it and doesn't have to pay royalties. I don't understand that

I don't see that changing for the next Xbox. They've probably already started talks with AMD/ATI for the next cpu/gpu.

Microsoft did this after Nvidia own3d them the first time around with XBOX. Microsoft needed to cut the cost of building XBOX's, but Nvidia would not sell them the graphics chips any cheaper. This is was one of those learning moments for Microsoft.
 

michael.pa2

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When the console companies have drained every last dollar out of suckers who still don't realize they're paying top dollar for ancient technology.Personally I'm holding out hope that the next Great Console Crash will come before that.:rolleyes:
 

Mr. Bluntman

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When the console companies have drained every last dollar out of suckers who still don't realize they're paying top dollar for ancient technology.Personally I'm holding out hope that the next Great Console Crash will come before that.:rolleyes:

This industry needs an enema. Pffffffffft. :p
 

Neurofreeze

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When the console companies have drained every last dollar out of suckers who still don't realize they're paying top dollar for ancient technology.Personally I'm holding out hope that the next Great Console Crash will come before that.:rolleyes:

Considering the profit that all three consoles are pulling in now... there is absolutely no chance of that happening.
 

Staples

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Hopefully late 2012. But who knows, MS has big hopes for Kinect and they don't want to shorten it by announcing a new system 18 months after it comes out. But they can't wait too long or Sony will preempt them.
 

Mr. Bluntman

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Hopefully late 2012. But who knows, MS has big hopes for Kinect and they don't want to shorten it by announcing a new system 18 months after it comes out. But they can't wait too long or Sony will preempt them.

Or Nintendo. It wouldn't take much today to spank "current" console hardware.
 

BK_201

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Technically, the PS4 is complete for the most part. I remember seeing leaked prototype blueprints on the net a couple years ago. However, even if it's complete, Sony won't release it due to marketing. They'll try to milk as much money as they can on the current platform. My guess is 2013 earliest for the release.
 

RogueTrip

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In all honesty I wouldn't doubt seeing them try to make the hardware last longer this time around due to economy and the fact that there really hasn't been any leapfrog in hardware or push to better graphics for while (tessellation still hasn't been tamed or widely implemented). I really wouldn't want them to release until they can adequately push 1920x1080 full steam without upscaling, while close now we would want some overhead on that for future longevity.

If history of the PS2 holds, it started in 2000 and ended in 2010. The PS3 released in 2006 and would end in 2016 yet the PS4 would drop around 2012 like others stated.

Personally, I think we might be stuck with this generation longer than we anticipating. I'm good with that since I just got my Wii and PS3 this year and would like some ROI before needing to save up for new consoles!

I'm really thinking 2013-2014 myself for next wave. Wii2/HD will probably be the first to come out so they have some level playing field for a short while.
 

Matrices

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I keep hearing that developers already consider games too "expensive" to make. What the fuck kind of argument is that? Revenue from gaming software hit record highs in the last three years. Input, output. And what is more expensive? The artwork for shitty sub 720p textures? Come on. Game developers were making textures for resolutions higher than that before these consoles even came out.
 

Elledan

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I'm pretty sure that with a year or two the current crop of consoles will be completely outdated, especially MSFT's and Sony's offerings. At this point the XBox 360 and PS3 can't really be called 'HD' consoles any more, as even 720p resolution games are becoming more and more scarce. Just look at what both consoles have inside for a GPU (GF5-era hardware, meaning completely antiquated in terms of features). With another two years both consoles will be lucky to have 480p resolution games :)

As for the Wii... I guess that market demand is the clearest indicator there. Sales keep dropping and speaking as someone who regularly (ab)uses the Wii and 46" PDP HDTV of her housemate, 720p output or better for a Nintendo console would be quite welcome. Fewer jaggies is good, even if it still easily beats the often horrible output quality of the PS2.
 

Mr. Bluntman

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I keep hearing that developers already consider games too "expensive" to make. What the fuck kind of argument is that? Revenue from gaming software hit record highs in the last three years. Input, output. And what is more expensive? The artwork for shitty sub 720p textures? Come on. Game developers were making textures for resolutions higher than that before these consoles even came out.

When a game's budget consists of 30% development cost and 70% marketing, something is seriously wrong. Even 10% of that marketing budget could go towards making a better PC version. But the bean counters say nay, too much piracy. Not a big enough market. "Nobody plays shooters on the PC anymore." Bull. Shit. So they don't try. We are an afterthought to the console market. And as for the lame excuses, they are just that: LAME. Most people don't know better since before this generation 480i output and blurry textures was the norm.

I'm pretty sure that with a year or two the current crop of consoles will be completely outdated, especially MSFT's and Sony's offerings. At this point the XBox 360 and PS3 can't really be called 'HD' consoles any more, as even 720p resolution games are becoming more and more scarce. Just look at what both consoles have inside for a GPU (G7x/R5x0*-era hardware, meaning completely antiquated in terms of features). With another two years both consoles will be lucky to have 480p resolution games :)

They're already horribly outdated, but I see what you're saying. Still, the majority are still happy with current in-game graphics; the bean counters therefore want to drag out this generation far longer than neccessary. Me? I wouldn't care so much if consoles didn't directly impact PC gaming and development as it does today.

And Alan Wake is one of the closest to SD resolutions, packing a 960x540 framebuffer (albeit with very good scaling and 4x MSAA). Despite this it has some of the best visuals (lighting and shadows-wise) I have seen on the XBox 360.

*FTFY
 
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theNoid

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We are an afterthought to the Joe Blows.

Still, the masses of sheeple are still happy with current in-game graphics

Shouldn't someone who's been here as long as you know better than to come into the console forum and literally troll and insult console gamers?

How about talk like a grown up and we can start having grown up conversations.
 
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Mr. Bluntman

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Okay, fine. Sorry. I just get pissed sometimes that the PC suffers at the expense of consoles, and shouldn't have said it like that. Still, my gaming roots are on consoles, so it's not like I hate them. Shit, I even own an XBox 360 and plan on picking up a PS3 next Feb.

So, please, let's get back on topic.
 
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Matrices

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The mainstreaming of gaming was happening even before this gen of consoles. (Exhibit A: Freelancer lacking joystick support.) The consoles are a symptom, not the disease. As with anything else, mainstreaming results in a certain 'flattening' effect and loss of niche quality.

There are cool experiences on the consoles - Dead Space Extraction (Wii), Heavy Rain (PS3), Gears (360).

Having said all that, yes, you inevitably lose some of the sophistication of gameplay because of the more limited controls. RIP Battlezone, Mechwarrior, Freespace, and so on.
 

Baker

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This is how I see it.

Nintendo will probably be the next company to release a console. The Wii is doing great, but now that PS3 and X360 both have motion controls, other than first party titles, Nintendo is going to need something to make them stand out from the rest.

I also believe that because Sony and Microsoft both came out with their motion controls, they're going to treat their current systems as almost "new systems". By adding motion controls they've opened up gaming on their platforms to a broader audience than before. They will try to market this and push the lifespan of their consoles longer. This will do a couple of things for them.

First, by pushing back the lifespan of the current systems by adding motion controls, will allow them more time to develop their next round of consoles to out perform the current consoles by two-fold. If the next round of consoles ship out with only average increases in performance, people aren't going to want to shift to a new console (especially depending on price).

Secondly the extra time given by the lifespan of the current consoles will allow them to not only create something that is far superior to what is out now, but also provide enough time to work out manufacturing and assembly costs. I believe current systems proved what most people are willing to pay for a gaming console. I highly doubt Sony will ever introduce another gaming console at $499 and $599 again.

So my guess, Nintendo comes out with the next console, to compete with PS3/X360's graphics while still marketing their motion controls, with the other two about a year behind Nintendo's release.
 

Domingo

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Yeah, I think Nintendo will be first to market. In all of their recent interviews even they’ve been musing about their lack of HD video. Plus, the 3DS will be sporting power akin to their main system. I honestly would be surprised if we didn’t see a new console from them on shelves by early 2012. If I had to guess, I bet they overshoot the current systems (but not by a ton) and stick with the Wii-mote.
With Sony and MS, I’m not so sure. I think their new motion controllers are trial runs for the next generation, but they still have plenty of life in both the 360 and PS3. I know people on here complain that they’re under-powered, but I don’t think the average consumer feels that way. Unless you’re comparing them to a DX11 PC, they really aren’t. 3D isn't widespread enough, and I really don't think 720p/1080p is something most consumers care about. The real missing link, IMO is that they likely want something that integrates their motion controllers and unifies their consumer base...and obviously more horsepower will help, too.
I’d say we will probably won’t see new systems from MS or Sony until the fall of 2013.
 

Lateralus

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With Sony and MS, I’m not so sure. I think their new motion controllers are trial runs for the next generation, but they still have plenty of life in both the 360 and PS3. I know people on here complain that they’re under-powered, but I don’t think the average consumer feels that way. Unless you’re comparing them to a DX11 PC, they really aren’t. 3D isn't widespread enough, and I really don't think 720p/1080p is something most consumers care about.

Exactly. I'm a PC gamer first and foremost, and I prefer to buy titles for the PC due to the better graphics and mouse/kb controls but even I don't complain about the lack of horsepower from the 360/PS3 and I know most people who don't give a rat's arse about gaming on a PC don't either. For them, poor graphics and frame rates aren't major complaints because they haven't been exposed to better, and if they have, they don't care because consoles are effortless to operate and can be enjoyed from the couch or recliner.

Everybody is buying 1080p HDTVs but most console owners don't care that the games don't run natively at that resolution. They just want it to look good and play well and be fun. PC gamers, on the other hand, demand only the best and will accept nothing less without whining about this or that. And that's why they tend to crap on consoles for running at lower resolutions and using controllers when in fact the console crowd is perfectly happy with what they get most of the time (assuming the game is fun to play).
 

Blackstone

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I heard Nintendo will be first to the market with launch title that is an HD remake of a classic title, internally codenamed "Ocarina of Endless Money."
 

Shalafi

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I heard Nintendo will be first to the market with launch title that is an HD remake of a classic title, internally codenamed "Ocarina of Endless Money."

That made me smile, but I AM looking forward to the new 3DS which is gonna have a remake of Ocarina of Time, ironically enough to your post :p

I do think a lot of you guys have made valid posts about the economy and the companies wanting to drag a little more life out of the consoles that are out now. I think the 360 is tapped out as far as it's hardware goes, I think the PS3 has more life left in it.

The Wii is practically ancient, mine hasn't been turned on in over a year.

Consoles will never be cutting edge simply because if you were to take a top of the line computer and put it in a console sized package, it would cost more than the average consumer can afford, which is why the PS3 didn't sell so well in it's early stages (I own a PS3 and did not buy one untill October 2008).

I think that the Big 3 learned from that.
 

Blackstone

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Sony is out of it. Their hardware is just too expensive with too little return for the consumer for them to launch again anytime within the next 5 years. Their customers will be looking for more titles from them. Microsoft is in a win win situation because they either revitalize their current console with Kinect or they launch something new. Their customers will be fatigued with that system by 2013.

Nintendo is in a tough spot. They like to keep the their hardware cheap, but how can they distinguish themselves against their competitors without some serious brute force processing power? That means money, heat, fans, larger form factor, all the things they hate. In my opinion, Wii HD would have to start where Crysis left off in terms of graphics and physics to really impress anybody. You'd actually need more than that, I think---you'd need some serious physics capabilities--something substantial. I don't see that happening at $250. I'm really not sure what they will do.

Nintendo may launch first but I think Microsoft is in the best position to deliver the next big thing.
 

BK_201

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Now it's just a waiting game. I still think the PS4 won't be released even though it's ready until much later.
 

Mr. Bluntman

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Speculation: Perhaps the big three are waiting for 28nm or even 22nm manufacturing to be available before starting to roll the new systems off the assembly line. I'm speculating that at least one of the big three will incorporate an APU/CGPU chip design or to simplify cooling and avoid the massive failures that this generation suffered.

It would be awful press if two consecutive generations of console hardware had overheating and premature failure issues.
 
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