What's the truthful reason(s) for the GPU shortage?

LeftSide said:
https://www.coindesk.com/bitmain-antminer-e9-asic-ethereum-mining

TLDR: An ASIC that mines ethereum will be released this year.
A combination of ETH 2.0, this ASIC, and Nvidia lowering the hash rate of their cards should make gfx cards available again by the end of the year.
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Oh the new bitmain eth ASIC? They've most likely been mining with these already and by the time they get released for sale they are already used items. Their impact on the network is likely already being felt, so there won't be much if any difficulty increase when they go up for sale to the public. ETH 2.0 is also not likely to be here by end of the year and I'm hoping it gets stretched out further so I can keep mining it.
 
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This paints a picture that barely any of the new GPU's are going to gaming

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jlbenedict said:
This paints a picture that barely any of the new GPU's are going to gaming
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The mental math isn't easy (at least to me), say steam has now 125 millions active account that logged in that month and that 70% of world gamers with a GPU was sampled in it (I think that it was not officially there in China until very recently and we can suspect that in absolute term if is a major Nvidia market by now even if it would be ultra modest by capita, in 2017 it was already bigger than japan).

That would give an estimate that around 2.85% * 125 million / .7 = 5.09 millions video cards in the hands of gamers.

to say that barely any of the new GPUs are going to gaming, say that you mean by that 15% or less of them goes to gaming that would require over 33 millions GPU sold, if we compare to PS5 sales that would be a giant amount.

Any of the numbers I roughly estimated above could be wrong obviously, just pointing that at least for my knowledge capacity it is hard to judge, there is more 3080 than 2080TI in gamers hands already and I wonder if their average selling price points was much lower than the 2080TI.

One feeling is that a significant amount of sales (most ?) came from pre-build gaming computer and that a good percentage of those went into gamers hands because of the work it require to extracting gpu for something else that come with it, the DIU market place can be misleading (just think AMD vs Intel marketshare if we would go on those website sales), on that one it could be miners heavy.
 
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jlbenedict said:
This paints a picture that barely any of the new GPU's are going to gaming

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From what I see the sales of the RTX 3080 and 3070 are good. This means that Nvidia is selling them to gamers and probably the demand is huge. No RDNA2 cards in the list. As they are much easier to find, this means there are few manufactured by AMD and low demand on the gaming side.
There are more people gaming on a 3080 than with a 2080Ti, in March. That means a lot. And there are as much people playing with a 3070 than a 1080Ti, the first month it goes on sale. Wow !
Clearly not a mining problem but a gaming demand problem.
 
Meh, looks fine to me, the 3080 is almost tied with the 2080 Super and the 3070 is coming up on the 2060 Super.
The Super series was in production for a little over a year and the 30 series is about 7 months old. If anything they seem to be growing faster than expected. Probably because a lot of people skipped the 20 series, but there's also people replacing their old cards with new ones.

Check again around Nov/Dec this year and the lifespans of the two series will match.
 
jlbenedict said:
This paints a picture that barely any of the new GPU's are going to gaming

View attachment 351771
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That's not what that paints though if you look at the history of Steam surveys. Steam surveys always prove that the majority of cards are mid range or lower, and that people tend to stick with them for a long time. People aren't really buying x070/x080 cards, just as SLI configurations were always rare. Even those who do buy the pricier cards tend to sit on them for a bit.

Even then the 3070 is out doing the 2080 and then 2080 super and the 3080 is doing better than the 2080ti, that's pretty good.

We're going to have to wait several months to see the 3060's impact and wait for the 3050 before this generation really starts to show in those charts. Even then for most people who are a 1080p 60 monitor there is no reason now to get one. The software is not there.
 
Steam should have a game-specific hardware chart. For example: what type of gpus are people using to run Red Dead Redemption 2 or the Crysis remake.
 
arnemetis said:
Covid started it by reducing worker capacity. Moving forward we had a storm of demand appear by new consoles dropping along with highly sought after gpus. There's a drought around TSMC's plant which reduces their capacity since they go through a hilarious amount of water. Miners and scalping have sprung up due to recent profitability for both of their trades specifically. Car sales have gone back up with travel restrictions starting to relax, which also need chips. Expanding or making new fabs take both enormous amounts of money and time, so there is no easy fix to increase capacity.

The tax on imports simply increased prices, it has no effect on supply. For example the founders edition cards have kept the same price, because they are not made in China, but everyone else has jacked up their prices. This will most likely take years to recover from, if it simply doesn't become the new normal. I unfortunately feel it will only continue to get worse, and we will be looking at $1,000 retail prices of 3060s by the end of the year, with everything else hilariously higher. No reason to believe it will ever get better so long as every card is sold on ebay even when it's 3x msrp. I've been fighting to get a card and a cpu since November with no luck myself.
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You need to go to Micro Center. There is no longer a huge shortage for cpus. I just walked in at 11am to my Micro Center and walked out 15 minutes later with a Ryzen 5900X. Asgar as gpus. It definitely is starting to loosen up. Again Micro Center is getting like 25 6000 series gpus at least 3 times a week. That is not enought but itis nbetter than before . In 3 months it will be more like 50 6000 series card a day. By the end of the year, the shortages will be largely mitigated for AMD gpus.
 
os2wiz said:
You need to go to Micro Center. There is no longer a huge shortage for cpus. I just walked in at 11am to my Micro Center and walked out 15 minutes later with a Ryzen 5900X. Asgar as gpus. It definitely is starting to loosen up. Again Micro Center is getting like 25 6000 series gpus at least 3 times a week. That is not enought but itis nbetter than before . In 3 months it will be more like 50 6000 series card a day. By the end of the year, the shortages will be largely mitigated for AMD gpus.
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One can only hope.
 
os2wiz said:
You need to go to Micro Center. There is no longer a huge shortage for cpus. I just walked in at 11am to my Micro Center and walked out 15 minutes later with a Ryzen 5900X. Asgar as gpus. It definitely is starting to loosen up. Again Micro Center is getting like 25 6000 series gpus at least 3 times a week. That is not enought but itis nbetter than before . In 3 months it will be more like 50 6000 series card a day. By the end of the year, the shortages will be largely mitigated for AMD gpus.
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Yeah I got my 5950x at mc like three weeks ago. Amd gpus might be getting more common, but our local store still has campers every night. I can't take a week off work to camp and still risk not even getting what I want, I need an nvidia gpu.
 
arnemetis said:
Yeah I got my 5950x at mc like three weeks ago. Amd gpus might be getting more common, but our local store still has campers every night. I can't take a week off work to camp and still risk not even getting what I want, I need an nvidia gpu.
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What he said. I would have to drive like 400 miles to the nearest MC. That's just not practical, as well as adding money for gas, meals, motel, etc. I could never explain that to my wife. :ROFLMAO:
 
x509 said:
What he said. I would have to drive like 400 miles to the nearest MC. That's just not practical, as well as adding money for gas, meals, motel, etc. I could never explain that to my wife. :ROFLMAO:
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I too am faced with driving hundreds of miles in any direction to reach a Microcenter. If I knew for sure that I would score a GPU, I'd do it. But man . . . I don't want to face that disappointed drive back home if I didn't get one.
 
SOAREVERSOR said:
That's not what that paints though if you look at the history of Steam surveys. Steam surveys always prove that the majority of cards are mid range or lower, and that people tend to stick with them for a long time. People aren't really buying x070/x080 cards, just as SLI configurations were always rare. Even those who do buy the pricier cards tend to sit on them for a bit.
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I can confirm that I am one of those people that sticks with a graphics card for a long time, once I settle on one that meets my needs at the time. I bought a GTX 670 ages ago, and it's still the best graphics card I have. It actually aged pretty well up until Pascal came out. People are amazed that I am still running this card and tell I'm crazy for using a 600 series GPU, but here's how I look at it.

The GTX 670 is not only pretty much equivalent to a 760Ti in performance... it's a rebadged version of the same card. So everyone running a 760Ti is pretty much running a 670, they just don't know it. So by the time the 700 series cards came out, my high-end 670 had only degraded to a 60Ti level, which is pretty mid-range. nVidia skipped the 800 series, inflating the numbers even more. By the time the 900 series came out, my card was performing pretty close to a 960, but a 950 would have still been a clear downgrade from a 670. So I'm still mid-range, but now in the lower end of it. When Pascal came out, I really wanted to upgrade to a 1070 because my card was only performing at around 1050 levels, and I was starting to feel like I had a low-end card, but I was still getting by. Now, with Turing/RTX 20... the whole game changes. I can't even really compare most of the RTX series to what I have because they now have raytracing and everything. But it is still trading blows with a 1650, which means it's still kinda holding its own among the budget non-raytracing cards, even if it's only competitive with the cheapest one. I'm sure Ampere/RTX 30 finally makes my card utterly and totally obsolete, but who is going to make a game that only runs well on Ampere right now?

But it's safe to say that a GTX 670 can play most games released before 2018 at 1080p without many problems, especially if you have a 60Hz monitor and don't run at max settings. That is a pretty good run for a piece of hardware first released in May 2012.
 
I've been visiting the local microcenter a lot, buying all kinds of random stuff for no reason, and the situation has definitely improved. If you show up early in the morning on a day of a major drop you'll probably get a low-end nvidia card or an AMD card. 6900XTs are sitting in shelves for a day or two now (at $2500. Saw an ASRock for $1600 though). Typically I'm seeing AMD cards on shelves most days of the week now, although they're usually gone by the next day. nVidia cards are still less common, but now I've seen 2060's on shelves in large quantities on lucky days whereas before you'd only see 1660's if you were lucky. 3xxx series are still basically unavailable though unless you're willing to wait in line. If you're a gamer and don't mind AMD cards and have the money, it definitely is a better situation than February/March.
 
TaintedSquirrel said:
Ebay prices on 30 series cards are also still trending upwards. We haven't even flatlined yet.
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So if you assume that Nvidia and AMD are both producing at capacity, then the monthly supply of these cards hasn't increased month over month. If you make this assumption, then the laws of supply and demand suggest that miners are getting an increasing share of that total production.
 
Andrew_Carr said:
I've been visiting the local microcenter a lot, buying all kinds of random stuff for no reason, and the situation has definitely improved. If you show up early in the morning on a day of a major drop you'll probably get a low-end nvidia card or an AMD card. 6900XTs are sitting in shelves for a day or two now (at $2500. Saw an ASRock for $1600 though). Typically I'm seeing AMD cards on shelves most days of the week now, although they're usually gone by the next day. nVidia cards are still less common, but now I've seen 2060's on shelves in large quantities on lucky days whereas before you'd only see 1660's if you were lucky. 3xxx series are still basically unavailable though unless you're willing to wait in line. If you're a gamer and don't mind AMD cards and have the money, it definitely is a better situation than February/March.
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Fair enough, but I have a hard time spending $2500 on a card from an AIB that AMD direct sells for $999 (occasionally). Obviously, AMD has less control over AIB's compared to Nvidia. Certain AMD AIBs seem to be pricing cards according to their relative ebay value (Asus, MSI, Gigabyte).
 
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athenian200 said:
I can confirm that I am one of those people that sticks with a graphics card for a long time, once I settle on one that meets my needs at the time. I bought a GTX 670 ages ago, and it's still the best graphics card I have. It actually aged pretty well up until Pascal came out. People are amazed that I am still running this card and tell I'm crazy for using a 600 series GPU, but here's how I look at it.

The GTX 670 is not only pretty much equivalent to a 760Ti in performance... it's a rebadged version of the same card. So everyone running a 760Ti is pretty much running a 670, they just don't know it. So by the time the 700 series cards came out, my high-end 670 had only degraded to a 60Ti level, which is pretty mid-range. nVidia skipped the 800 series, inflating the numbers even more. By the time the 900 series came out, my card was performing pretty close to a 960, but a 950 would have still been a clear downgrade from a 670. So I'm still mid-range, but now in the lower end of it. When Pascal came out, I really wanted to upgrade to a 1070 because my card was only performing at around 1050 levels, and I was starting to feel like I had a low-end card, but I was still getting by. Now, with Turing/RTX 20... the whole game changes. I can't even really compare most of the RTX series to what I have because they now have raytracing and everything. But it is still trading blows with a 1650, which means it's still kinda holding its own among the budget non-raytracing cards, even if it's only competitive with the cheapest one. I'm sure Ampere/RTX 30 finally makes my card utterly and totally obsolete, but who is going to make a game that only runs well on Ampere right now?

But it's safe to say that a GTX 670 can play most games released before 2018 at 1080p without many problems, especially if you have a 60Hz monitor and don't run at max settings. That is a pretty good run for a piece of hardware first released in May 2012.
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I have the weirdest notion that I’ve read this before.
 
So this is message #227 in a thread that started on April 8, a really long thread. Have we learned anything?
 
We already knew the actual issues before this thread burst forth through the sternum of the forum.
 
MrC4 said:
Yes, we've learned that no one know a fucking thing.
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If we really knew when scalping was no longer a Thing, and maybe the mining craze died down, then it might be easier to make purchase decisions based on price now vs. price in the future. But I agree. We don't.
 
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x509 said:
So is this thread like "Group Therapy [H] style?" :ROFLMAO:
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Actually, yes! I see denial, anger, bargaining, depression, and acceptance, all in one blast.

I am happy to say I'm personally in the final phase. I no longer seek or think I will get an upgrade for <number> years. Okay, this is how it goes. Time to go back to my music hobby a bit more. I don't think the chip shortages have impacted my ability to get that Martin acoustic I've wanted basically forever.
 
kirbyrj said:
Fair enough, but I have a hard time spending $2500 on a card from an AIB that AMD direct sells for $999 (occasionally). Obviously, AMD has less control over AIB's compared to Nvidia. Certain AMD AIBs seem to be pricing cards according to their relative ebay value (Asus, MSI, Gigabyte).
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Well the motherboard manufacturers are trying to sell $1500+ Z590 motherboards so it is a weird time indeed.
 
obs said:
Well the motherboard manufacturers are trying to sell $1500+ Z590 motherboards so it is a weird time indeed.
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Gadzooks! Do you get the feeling like all these manufacturers are trying to suck every last dollar/euro/pound out of our wallets?
 
x509 said:
Gadzooks! Do you get the feeling like all these manufacturers are trying to suck every last dollar/euro/pound out of our wallets?
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If there is a limit at which people won't buy I have not seen it yet, I canceled a 3090 in Jan straight from Amazon for 1850 (with tax) since that was a laughable value even then and ebay prices at around 2300-2400 were barely worth the hassle after fees , now that model easily goes for near twice that (msi trio) on ebay(I myself ended up paying almost 2100 to evga for my 3090 ftw3 step up, despite having passed it over a couple of times at 1970 (with tax) earlier in the cycle) ...the used 3090 FE I sold two weeks for nearly 3k has already shot up a couple of hundred bucks so we not seen the peak yet. Until we do, expect a steady creep in AIB prices to nearly match ebay/stockx prices which makes sense.
 
I guess that the market hasn't reached the point where people refuse or simply can't pay the current gouge pricing. Given all the money sloshing around in people's bank accounts, that point is not yet in sight.
 
Scalpers buying consoles/gpus and shipping them overseas to sell in their shops in places like Dubai etc for huge markups.
 
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