What's the truthful reason(s) for the GPU shortage?

x509

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Stop looking at GPUs as "GPUs." They were once primarily used for PC gaming and rendering, now they are more like simulation computation units. Take a look a nVidia GTC at what amphere actually is, a simulation architecture that also happens to be damn good at playing these "videogamez." The category and quantity of both business/institutional and consumer level customers are dramatically more than what they used to be, pretty easy to see the shortage coming when combined with the supply situation.

[ ... ]
Does this also apply to AMD?
 

LeftSide

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Does this also apply to AMD?
The 6x00 series is not good for eth mining because of the memory architecture. Eth runs random calculations across a 4gb file. The small cache of l3 memory on the latest Radeon GPUs is great for gaming, but impedes the random nature of eth compute.
Most miners turn the gpu voltage down to save power and OC the memory on both nvidia and amd GPUs
 

Secretweapon

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Does this also apply to AMD?
AMD 6x.. cards are no better than the last gen 5700xt at mining. Roughly equal to a 3070 at worse wattage. If you are looking ROI the reference cards would decent but the AIBs are a tougher pill to swallow. They also don't appear to be as good at the productivity and work applications. I think AMD is more just supply strained with CPU/consoles.

Personally I believe Intel and AMD will invest heavily into this sector to catch the enterprise sales currently falling to nvidia. If they succeed hopefully the supply situation for everyone will ease from the trickle down effect.
 

x509

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The 6x00 series is not good for eth mining because of the memory architecture. Eth runs random calculations across a 4gb file. The small cache of l3 memory on the latest Radeon GPUs is great for gaming, but impedes the random nature of eth compute.
Most miners turn the gpu voltage down to save power and OC the memory on both nvidia and amd GPUs
In post #120 the poster sez:

if I was actually purchasing a used card, I'd have better chances of getting a good card from a miner. Most people who know what they are doing are controlling the power output and cooling. None of the Overclocked at +XXXmhz/volts inside an enclosed enclosure of unknow air flow situation.

Just saying.
 

viscountalpha

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To sum it up, it's the perfect storm of too much demand because of covid and mining and not nearly enough supply.

I heard reports that silicon wafers shot up 20% before covid started. And I know there's literally not enough SQ foot of fab space for the latest processes. Intel is partially to blame but they are being sneaky with the next stepping. I would/should have heard something but they are being VERY tight lipped about all of it. To the point where employees aren't supposed to leave their badge out in public anymore here in Hillsboro.

on that note...

IF THERE WAS EVER A @#$@# TIME FOR INTEL TO SHOW UP AND STEAL THE SHOW, IT WOULD BE RIGHT NOW.

But this is intel we are talking about. they are so mired down by meetings and corporate bureaucracy that i'm certain it would take a week for them to fix a light bulb. However, that would require them to actually care, in which they don't.
 
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n370zed

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I should’ve bought a 2080 Ti for like $600 back before the 3070 was release when people were dumping the 2080Ti in anticipation for the 3070.
 

TaintedSquirrel

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I should’ve bought a 2080 Ti for like $600 back before the 3070 was release when people were dumping the 2080Ti in anticipation for the 3070.
Yeah but if someone had said back in September "hey if you buy this cheap card now it'll be worth 3x as much in 6 months" everyone here would've laughed. Especially the $600 2080 Ti's. Same shit happened with bitcoin many years ago except you missed out on millions of dollars lol.
 

n370zed

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I bought 23000 dogecoins when it was at 3cent. My wife sold them at 8 cents a few weeks ago. Now at the time of this writing it’s at 25 cents 😭
 

LeftSide

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In post #120 the poster sez:

if I was actually purchasing a used card, I'd have better chances of getting a good card from a miner. Most people who know what they are doing are controlling the power output and cooling. None of the Overclocked at +XXXmhz/volts inside an enclosed enclosure of unknow air flow situation.

Just saying.
Sorry, I guess I did ramble on a bit.
I was trying to say that yes it applies to AMD cards as well, but they are not mining at the same hash rates as their nvidia equivalent.
Also, it’s true that the GPU is underclocked and undervolted to save power, but the memory will be overclocked to the limit. If you buy used and you expect it’s a mining card, testing the memory would be my number one concern.
 
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we all need to just boycott buying electronics for the next few years until prices get in control with the rest of the american dollar based US economy. send all these privileged sellers a big message. :sneaky:
 

x509

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we all need to just boycott buying electronics for the next few years until prices get in control with the rest of the american dollar based US economy. send all these privileged sellers a big message. :sneaky:
The lack of supply will accomplish the same result as a boycott, at least for those of us who don't want to spend the monthly rent or mortgage on a GPU.
 

jmilcher

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I highly doubt you will see a bunch of cards on the secondary market if crypto prices drop. People may stop buying new cards, but mining crypto is an investment. You expect the prices to rise again later even if they are currently low. The only way miners dump all their cards is if they can't actually use them to mine anything which isn't going to happen.
It has happened before. More than a few times.
 

dexvx

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I highly doubt you will see a bunch of cards on the secondary market if crypto prices drop. People may stop buying new cards, but mining crypto is an investment. You expect the prices to rise again later even if they are currently low. The only way miners dump all their cards is if they can't actually use them to mine anything which isn't going to happen.
What you said has happened literally every single bust cycle.

The economics are simple. Don't underestimate the amount of morons that used leveraged money to buy GPU's at scalper prices and they have payments to make.

For others, they just wanted a couple free GPU's and are selling excess.
 

FrgMstr

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I highly doubt you will see a bunch of cards on the secondary market if crypto prices drop. People may stop buying new cards, but mining crypto is an investment. You expect the prices to rise again later even if they are currently low. The only way miners dump all their cards is if they can't actually use them to mine anything which isn't going to happen.

It has happened before. More than a few times.
I think what the majority of people are missing with NVIDIA's CMP line is that it is being done to combat the crypto bubble effect will have on the secondary market. The CMP/Miner cards are only being produced to combat used mining cards being sold into the secondary gaming market when the bubble bursts and deflating pricing there. If you think NVIDIA just sold $150M worth of CMP cards directly to miners to help the prices and or supply in the gaming market, you are smoking something spcial.
 

dexvx

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I think what the majority of people are missing with NVIDIA's CMP line is that it is being done to combat the crypto bubble effect will have on the secondary market. The CMP/Miner cards are only being produced to combat used mining cards being sold into the secondary gaming market when the bubble bursts and deflating pricing there. If you think NVIDIA just sold $150M worth of CMP cards directly to miners to help the prices and or supply in the gaming market, you are smoking something spcial.
Yup, had to explain to a friend that Nvidia making CMP cards is *not* gamer friendly. LTT also explained this.

Basically those CMP cards will never make it second hand to a gamer like normal GPU's. Nvidia got burned hard with the Turing (RTX 20xx) launch, where they had to contend with a flood of used GTX 1060/70/80/80ti *and* ODM's dumping excess supply of the same. So in late 2018-early 2020, you could buy a brand new 1080Ti for ~$550-650 or a used one for ~$350-500. So the $799 RTX 2080 at launch was a tough sell when it was maybe 5% faster than the 1080Ti at launch. JH had the pleasure of addressing the lack of Turing demand during an analyst call.
 

Smashing Young Man

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I'm becoming increasingly worried about the knock-on effect this shortage will have on other industries. Fewer PC game sales is an obvious one, and I think it will begin to affect game development as well if this drags on for a long time. Developers will become more conservative in pushing hardware. 4k monitor sales will surely suffer. Probably other markets as well that I haven't even thought of.
 

x509

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I'm going to guess that some people will "drop out" of the GPU market and buy a pre-built system from Dell, Lenovo, etc. Others may simply lose interest in gaming altogether.

But people like me, who don't game, but who need a mid-range card for Adobe photo software, are simply going to have to suck it up and wait. And wait.
 

obs

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I think what the majority of people are missing with NVIDIA's CMP line is that it is being done to combat the crypto bubble effect will have on the secondary market. The CMP/Miner cards are only being produced to combat used mining cards being sold into the secondary gaming market when the bubble bursts and deflating pricing there. If you think NVIDIA just sold $150M worth of CMP cards directly to miners to help the prices and or supply in the gaming market, you are smoking something spcial.
Even when crypto prices inevitably crash, I still think there will be crypto demand for cards. I doubt the market is flooded like a few years ago. Yea some cards will be sold by people just mining for a free card or 2, but more will see the long term potential of mining for the next big spike. Or maybe even a longer term investment. Last time the market crashed, people thought it was done for good.

CMP cards aren’t about helping gamers. They’re about being able to mark up their prices 2-3x what a gamer card would cost. The profits they must make on them is truly insane. If it helps lower the second hand demand of rtx/gtx, all the better (for nvidia)
 
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Saabjock

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Here's the reality...
Both Nvidia and AMD...along with their respective add-in board partners, now know how much people are willing to spend to get GPUs.
Do not expect pricing to ever return to pre-Covid levels.
Moving forward...you might find the occasional sale as OEMs replace stock for newer products.
Heck!...the AIBs may even offer you a few dollars 'off' the currently elevated price but these won't happen very often.
This is the outright greed people often refer to as... "What the market will bear"
I ******* hate that term.
It basically says... I will screw you royally...because I can.
 
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dexvx

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Here's the reality...
Both Nvidia and AMD...along with their respective add-in board partners, now know how much people are willing to spend to get these GPUs.
Do not expect pricing to ever return to pre-Covid levels.
That is the greed people often refer to as... 'What ever the market will bear".
I ******* hate that term.
It basically means, I will screw you royally...because I can.
That's both true and false.

Manufacturers love having a robust secondary market because it creates artificial demand on product, giving ample justification for price hikes. They love having excuses to raise prices, because if they just outright increased prices, it would be a PR issue. Some of the issues are are burdensome (e.g. tariffs, silicon shortage, supply shortages, covid, etc), but given the BOM cost of the GPU's, the price premiums are a large exaggeration.

This whole ordeal has also desensitized people to higher prices. I used to think $500 for a GPU (Nvidia #80 series) was a lot. Now a $1000 RTX 3080? People are botting and fighting over them. It also creates upward mobility in the entire product stack. I've seen many posts here on [H] where people just gave up and bought a RTX 3090 because they figured it was justified, given RTX 3080 prices.
 

professional loser

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It is funny, as a non gamer who uses GPU for 3d work, a $1400 card would make me instantly clench my butt cheeks, now I would buy a RTX3090 for $1400 in a heartbeat.
 

Denpepe

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Here's the reality...
Both Nvidia and AMD...along with their respective add-in board partners, now know how much people are willing to spend to get GPUs.
Do not expect pricing to ever return to pre-Covid levels.
Moving forward...you might find the occasional sale as OEMs replace stock for newer products.
Heck!...the AIBs may even offer you a few dollars 'off' the currently elevated price but these won't happen very often.
This is the outright greed people often refer to as... "What the market will bear"
I ******* hate that term.
It basically says... I will screw you royally...because I can.

Somehow I don't think these prices are going to last like you think
https://www.alternate.be/Grafische-kaarten/GeForce-RTX-Gaming
https://www.alternate.be/Grafische-kaarten/AMD-grafische-kaarten

The fact that they have stock on some models says to me that people wont pay just about anything for cards
 

jlbenedict

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That's both true and false.

Manufacturers love having a robust secondary market because it creates artificial demand on product, giving ample justification for price hikes. They love having excuses to raise prices, because if they just outright increased prices, it would be a PR issue. Some of the issues are are burdensome (e.g. tariffs, silicon shortage, supply shortages, covid, etc), but given the BOM cost of the GPU's, the price premiums are a large exaggeration.

This whole ordeal has also desensitized people to higher prices. I used to think $500 for a GPU (Nvidia #80 series) was a lot. Now a $1000 RTX 3080? People are botting and fighting over them. It also creates upward mobility in the entire product stack. I've seen many posts here on [H] where people just gave up and bought a RTX 3090 because they figured it was justified, given RTX 3080 prices.

Unfortunately I agree with the above.. and to me personally $500 is out of my range for a GPU... If this becomes the new normal... it is scary at what mid-range or budget GPU's will run MSRP wise going forward.. I have never went over the $300 mark for a GPU, ever..
What will $300 get you in the "new normal".. probably won't even be able to pull down a crippled down GTX 4050 :LOL:
 

Endgame

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Unfortunately I agree with the above.. and to me personally $500 is out of my range for a GPU... If this becomes the new normal... it is scary at what mid-range or budget GPU's will run MSRP wise going forward.. I have never went over the $300 mark for a GPU, ever..
What will $300 get you in the "new normal".. probably won't even be able to pull down a crippled down GTX 4050 :LOL:
That’s actually probably not accurate. The really low end models start to lose on the performance per watt side of the table, the dies are really small, and they use cheap slow ram (bad for mining). All of those things put together also mean they can make a huge pile of them easily.

my best guess is that long term the X030 and X050 models are available in the 100-400 range with various tweaks to keep them better than iGPUs and different price points. However, they will have whatever anti mining stuff Nvidia will employ, none of them will really make sense to spend the effort to try to mine with them, even if you could break the mining locks. For example, I could basically go buy as many GTX 1030s and AMD 560s as I want at microcenter, even now.
 

Gabe3

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wonder how PC game sales will be affected. when BF6 launches later this year, recommend specs will include a card you can't even buy.
 

x509

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wonder how PC game sales will be affected. when BF6 launches later this year, recommend specs will include a card you can't even buy.
I'm not a gamer, so I don't have a dog in this hunt. But if I were a gamer, I would want BF6 to be configurable to use older GPU cards.
 

Gabe3

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I'm not a gamer, so I don't have a dog in this hunt. But if I were a gamer, I would want BF6 to be configurable to use older GPU cards.
I'm sure it will be. but if people want to play the game the way it will look in the trailers, they can't.
 

RareAir23

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So based on how I followed this question since the day the GeForce RTX 3080 launched the reasons aren't just 1 in volume but they aren't 1 million in volume either. I think of it under a few factors that all come together. Let's start from day 1 to reason 1 & 2 since they are directly related: Highest demand seen in years and lacking yields of GPUs from Samsung & TSMC. When you take these reasons into account at first it means nVIDIA and AMD couldn't get enough cards made to satisfy the demand for these video cards at first. Which leads to reason 3: bot-wielding scalpers swooping in to make a buck...a whole Helluva lot. The scalpers have been on the take of initial stock on launch day and have been in big on every restock since any video card came out. They've bought the majority of every restock and sell them on eBay, StockX and the Amazon 3rd party vendor network. With all 3 of these things going on another bigger problem coming out of China emerged in the past couple of months which is reason 4: lack of semi-conductor components to make electronics. Now, this bit is fairly new but has helped keep inventory limited for the time being. Of course, the 4th reason isn't just affecting nVIDIA and AMD. It's affecting Apple, Samsung, Microsoft, Sony, Nintendo, various automobile makers, everyone down the line. A reason that I will list here that will affect prices when everything gets sorted would be former President Trump's trade tariffs on China implemented a few weeks before he left office...that current President Biden won't ease off of. As long as those tariffs are in play GPU prices will be sky higher than they were already. There's your Madden Short Summary of it all and until next time I am out!
 

Riptide_NVN

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The economics are simple. Don't underestimate the amount of morons that used leveraged money to buy GPU's at scalper prices and they have payments to make.
Moron here checking in. I sold all my vega64 cards when the market tanked last time. Electricity was costing nearly what I was getting in mining rewards. I was far from the only one who sold and lost some money on the hardware at or near that point in time. I wasn't leveraged in on credit, I paid cash. A loss is a loss though.

This time around I went with 5 instead of 6 gpus and my power consumption is much lower vs. the vega cards. I'm not planning on selling this time and will continue to operate as long as there is something I can mine and exchange for xmr. This being a hobby vs. a business in my case changes things. Were I foolish enough to pay on credit and become dependent on the market continuing to remain high in order to support paying for parts then I would probably be selling too when it inevitably drops again.

Some people learn, some don't, and you also have a whole new crop of inexperienced nerds trying to rake in a few bucks and don't know what they're getting into and will learn the hard way.
 
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Gabe3

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Are they legit or a scam? Only accepts payment in crypto and their site looks a little suspicious. YouTube channel also just created yesterday. Also they just created their payment (most likely their online shop too) in April. So I think there’s a high chance it’s a scam.
the video is legit but not the site.
 

x509

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Is the a Chinese equivalent of Newegg, that has been in business for years, and has a good reputation? And of course ships to other countries.
 

Raelcreve

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Not true. Shopblt has such a service, I'm in line with thousands of others for a motherboard and gpus. I think they are not getting priority for shipments, ETAs have been pushed back repeatedly for months now. One gpu has an eta of today right now, but I fully expect tomorrow to get an email saying the eta has been pushed to 5/12 or later. If all the major retailers did this back in November, then maybe there would be a chance, but now there is no point. We do not matter, there's no incentive for the stores to try. Gamer, scalper, miner - it doesn't matter as they can't keep stock for more than a second.
I was in line at Shopblt as well and contacted sales to find out if the line was moving. I had ordered a 5900X and they hadn't shipped one since 11/6. This was back in early March. I was able to get one via AMD so canceled my BLT.

I suspect they haven't shipped anything of the newer items as I was unable to find anyone who had successfully received one.
 

Riptide_NVN

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ShopBLT will come through but it can take months. I gave up on them and cancelled my two gpu preorders.
 
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