What's the truthful reason(s) for the GPU shortage?

LeftSide

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The idea that there are “multiple factors” is laughable at best. This is 99% mining, and 1% everything else. If the price of etherium drops you will see instant availability of GPUs at normal prices. Unfortunately, I do not see that happening. The good news is ETH 2.0 is happening and soon everyone will be staking and mining will take a backseat.
I don’t think alt coins have the market value to keep the market this inflated, but who knows...
I was wrong about nVidia keeping the 3600 hash rate artificially low.
 

LeftSide

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The idea that there are “multiple factors” is laughable at best. This is 99% mining, and 1% everything else. If the price of etherium drops you will see instant availability of GPUs at normal prices. Unfortunately, I do not see that happening. The good news is ETH 2.0 is happening and soon everyone will be staking and mining will take a backseat.
I don’t think alt coins have the market value to keep the market this inflated, but who knows...
I was wrong about nVidia keeping the 3600 hash rate artificially low.
I would even go as far to say, we could have 5x supply and cards would still be scarce. It’s just too easy when a 3080 can make you $300 a month.
 
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There are legitimately multiple factors and facets contributing to where we are now, but I do agree that mining is the absolute predominant reason for continued issues.

Issues:

Super high demand for graphics cards from gamers. How many of us sat on old Pascal or Maxwell cards to skip Turing? I know I did.

For AMD, TSMC capacity. AMD has literally everything on 7nm and they had contractural obligations for most of it to go to consoles. Then Zen 3, then way down at the bottom, some RDNA2. Never mind the fact they are competing with a myriad of others for 7nm capacity at TSMC.

For Nvidia, their cards are great for mining with current prices so upon release were immediately bought up and continue to be bought up by mining operations, many of whom either use bots or have direct ways to get pallets of these cards direct from Nvidia and various AIB partners, leaving Average Joe gamer shit out of luck to just go on a website and order something like a normal fucking person.

Around the time of both Nvidia and AMD's launches, global supply chains were fucked amounting to transport being much more expensive, problems in sourcing manufacturing materials (water for TSMC, VRAM chips, etc.). Not sure really where we stand now.

Mining resurged as cryptocurrencies took off again and hit far new all time highs and bigger institutions and companies have further expressed a legitimization of cryptocurrency as a whole.

Tariffs and other things have driven up costs on MSRP's, but that doesn't really matter for supply. More just a factor in costs going forward when maybe things eventually normalize. But let's be real, AMD and Nvidia have now observed for months, people willing to buy things at any absurd price. So I mostly point this out as a warning that even if things eventually resolve with mining, don't expect normal MSRP's for the 40-series and RDNA3. Every $2500 3090 is selling lol. For as much as people (me included) bitched about Turing, they seem to have no qualms buying scalper 30-series cards whether truly scalped, or being scalped by retailers.

From what I've heard, Nvidia has been pumping out record number of chips/cards, so to me the issue lies in the mining and the average gamer not being able to actually get at these cards.

I'm sure I am missing more but here we are.
 

Endgame

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As an Nvidia investor, I’m very disappointed in how NVidia has handled this. They should immediately discontinue the 30X0 series of cards, and rerelease them as mining cards, but with MSRP starting at 2000 for the 3060 equivalent and go up from there.

for the gamer line, perhaps they could pull out some Gddr 4 or something. Performance so terrible for mining that it’s basically useless, but gamers would still buy since it’s better than nothing.
 

Riptide_NVN

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The idea that there are “multiple factors” is laughable at best. This is 99% mining, and 1% everything else. If the price of etherium drops you will see instant availability of GPUs at normal prices.
Substantiation please. Or your assertion is no less laughable than the speculation posted here to the contrary already by others such as myself.
 

Koldur

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Substantiation please. Or your assertion is no less laughable than the speculation posted here to the contrary already by others such as myself.
I totally agree with you. I bought my 3080 at €930 in the end of November, before mining was the reason people bought up cards. That already was €150 above MSRP for my card. Later that got way worse of course, and mining did play a big part in the later rise of prices. But it is clear that even before that happened, cards were on the rise and even at that price I was VERY lucky to get mine at that time.
 
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harmattan

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I'm sitting here with two 3080s I got for MSRP (£650) at launch last year, looking at current ~£1700 resale sold prices. This situation is bananas. I honestly cannot think of a precedent for this in the consumer electronics space... ever. Even at the point when console prices were highest post launch (PS3 was the worst case, if I recall), they were still only going for 1.5x retail.
 

Riptide_NVN

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I'm sure pressure from miners is producing at least some impact on what is basically an already extremely supply constrained scenario. Quantifying that is not really practical as far as I'm aware.

Regardless it's 2x msrp for 'bottom dollar' ebay prices at this point. If you want a card you're paying twice, or more, over retail. From a scalper on ebay typically. I don't know how these people are getting cards without the use of automation or just dumb luck because I've been trying and we're to the point now that a discord alert that you action within seconds is often times not going to get it done even from the best free alert bots like brobot. IME on my Android 8 huawei device, mobile alerts are totally worthless too. Basically, the shuffle is my only option, and I already blew that chance once by missing the alert after I'd won the thing 8 tries in.

Either pony up double msrp on ebay or be super patient and be prepared for months of waiting. What it basically boils down to.
 

FrgMstr

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Posts on this thread even start going a tiny bit off topic and those will be deleted along with warnings handed out.
 

yourgrandma

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Substantiation please. Or your assertion is no less laughable than the speculation posted here to the contrary already by others such as myself.
At the moment It's 100% mining and it's really simple, imagine you make a device that prints money. Production and supply issues simply do not matter in the least anymore because no matter how many of them you produce you will never meet anything close to the demand such a device will bring.
 

jlbenedict

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All bubbles crash... it's only a matter of when.. not if
At that point and when GPU's are available.. buy new.. and do not buy used mining GPU's.. Let them sit on them and rot...
 

Red Falcon

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It looks like things may not go back to normal, and the term "console peasant" is becoming uncomfortably literal and connected to a lack of wealth for many people.
It's very interesting that you touched on this point, as I have been thinking about this very thing as well, lately.
For those who do not already have at least a mid-range GPU from the last decade, starting new with a gaming PC is almost becoming an impossible task, thus the need for iGPUs and/or low-end discrete GPUs - all of which a modern console will out-perform.

The dark cyberpunk future present certainly is making for some interesting, and unprecedented, times we now live in... :borg:
 

Red Falcon

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As an Nvidia investor, I’m very disappointed in how NVidia has handled this. They should immediately discontinue the 30X0 series of cards, and rerelease them as mining cards, but with MSRP starting at 2000 for the 3060 equivalent and go up from there.

for the gamer line, perhaps they could pull out some Gddr 4 or something. Performance so terrible for mining that it’s basically useless, but gamers would still buy since it’s better than nothing.
Please don't give them any more ideas, we certainly don't need any more GT 1030 DDR4S editions. :D
I do get what you are saying, though, and unfortunately, even games need memory bandwidth, unless the specialized GPUs are going to be aimed at 1080p gaming-only.

This mining boom, plus the current supply chains and supply/demand of nearly every market segment, have just put a massive stranglehold on GPU availability out of the gate.
My GTX 980 Ti just bit the dust, and I switched back to a Quadro P400 - here I was, making fun of those "peasants" with their GT 710 GPUs... something something karma. :whistle:

55plhc.jpg
 

x509

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But what else is there to talk about these days when it comes to GPUs?
The increased consumption of booze and pills by people in this forum who are trying to buy a new GPU, compared to similar people who aren't wanting a new GPU. :ROFLMAO: Or the number of people who have started meditation as a way of developing patience.

Seriously, this GPU shortage has highlighted the fact that we have about zero power to influence Nvidia or AMD. As others have pointed out, the fact that people are paying 2X, 3X, maybe more over MSRP tells the vendors to raise prices accordingly. And keep on raising them until everyone who _ still wants one _ (afford one ...) can get one.
 

harmattan

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It'll never be done. This is the new normal (I hate that phrase) but this is it.
If that is the case, PC gaming is dead. There's a relative miniscule number of people who will pay $900 for a mid-tier card, much less $1500 for an enthusiast card.

The pendulum will almost certainly swing back the other way at some point once demand dies down and supply stabilizes. Crypto market will dip (and ultimately stabilize); chip production is ramping up already. It's not going to settle back where it was, and we're probably looking at $1000 as being the new baseline for enthusiast cards e.g. 3080/6700 XT, but it will settle down.
 

Denpepe

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If that is the case, PC gaming is dead. There's a relative miniscule number of people who will pay $900 for a mid-tier card, much less $1500 for an enthusiast card.

The pendulum will almost certainly swing back the other way at some point once demand dies down and supply stabilizes. Crypto market will dip (and ultimately stabilize); chip production is ramping up already. It's not going to settle back where it was, and we're probably looking at $1000 as being the new baseline for enthusiast cards e.g. 3080/6700 XT, but it will settle down.

I know a shop that has 6700XT's in stock atm for around 1000€ and they have not sold out yet, AMD sells those for 480€ (though no stock). It's one of the few cards you could actually buy over here yet they don't sell, shops are asking 2899€ or more for RTX 3090's which are also in stock so it seems that at least some of this crazyness is dying down a little.
 

Riptide_NVN

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Were it true that mining is now suddenly the cause of the problem whereas before we know that it was not, then eventually supply will stabilize due to ramped up production or alternately a major market correction will have the same effect. Just going to take more time to work itself out.

The situation is exacerbated by miners however the idea they are wholly responsible or nearly so is very suspect. Have you noticed CPUs are still difficult to obtain? This morning, no 5000 series in stock at newegg. I can't just go buy one. People aren't buying up these by the assload to mine with. Recently we've heard vehicle manufacturers complaining about shortages as well.

Clearly, the situation is larger than just miners though I know PC gamers absolutely hate them so it can be difficult to see past that.
 
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Mchart

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Sooo inflation is 300% in six months? Sobody please tell the Federal Reserve Bank!

funny my grocery bill hasn’t changed in six months.

Inflation should be a consequence of all this money printing, but GPU prices at 2-3x MSRP is not caused by inflation.
No, it's not the sole factor, but it's a big one. You might want to look at the month-by-month inflation rates BTW. Your grocery bill absolutely has gone up unless you live in a developing nation. Eggs, milk, gas, every single commodity has risen at least 5% just in a single month period, and there is no end in sight. Some other commodities are orders of magnitude higher in inflation. Any product coming from a place like SE Asia will be hit harder as the dollar continues to be de-valued, and you couple in the currency trade rates.

If you haven't noticed the inflation in the past few months, you aren't paying attention to your money that close, and/or you've been adequately fooled by the monopoly money stimulus payment, temporarily.
 

Kardonxt

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But what else is there to talk about these days when it comes to GPUs?
LOL, like this thread is adding any meaningful conversation? Everything said in this thread has been repeated in numerous other threads for the last several months.

You guys do you, I just find it funny.
 
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Endgame

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No, it's not the sole factor, but it's a big one. You might want to look at the month-by-month inflation rates BTW. Your grocery bill absolutely has gone up unless you live in a developing nation. Eggs, milk, gas, every single commodity has risen at least 5% just in a single month period, and there is no end in sight. Some other commodities are orders of magnitude higher in inflation. Any product coming from a place like SE Asia will be hit harder as the dollar continues to be de-valued, and you couple in the currency trade rates.

If you haven't noticed the inflation in the past few months, you aren't paying attention to your money that close, and/or you've been adequately fooled by the monopoly money stimulus payment, temporarily.
Had this discussion with a friend. I used my credit card spend analyzer to identify my spend on groceries. My grocery bill YoY is down both March and April, and my projection is that the May 21 bill will also be lower than May 20 bill. The last 6 months have been within 2% bill wise with no obvious trend - both November and December were higher than Jan / feb / March. April looks like it may be comparable to December.

If there is food inflation going on, it’s not registering in my monthly purchases.

the video card situation is entirely independent of anything to do with inflation.
 
D

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LOL, like this thread is adding any meaningful conversation? Everything said in this thread has been repeated in numerous other threads for the last several months.

You guys do you, I just find it funny.
I ask again: what else are we supposed to talk about? Those few who managed to grab a new card will have something to talk about amongst themselves, but they will be like a handful of peas rattling around in a 50 gallon drum on the GPU-based forums.

There is nothing wrong with discussing the topic of the GPU drought over and over. It's a bit of a way to work out some frustration over it all.
 

mikeo

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Any miners want to chime in on the best way to a quick roi? Download nicehash and let it run or is there a more profitable method?
 

professional loser

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Any miners want to chime in on the best way to a quick roi? Download nicehash and let it run or is there a more profitable method?

Not a miner but just read this about Nicehash-

NiceHash's founder Matjaž Škorjanc is a creator of malware Mariposa botnet, which infected over 1 million computers with Butterfly (mariposa in Spanish) Bot. The goal of Butterfly Bot was to install itself on an uninfected PC, monitoring activity for passwords, bank credentials and credit cards. Slovenian police arrested Matjaž on charges of distributing the malware in 2010. Matjaž was found guilty and served four years and ten months in a Slovenian prison. On June 5, 2019, US law enforcement opened a case in the operations of the Mariposa (Butterfly Bot, BFBOT) malware gang.[13] The FBI has moved forward with new charges and arrest warrants against four suspects, including Matjaž Škorjanc.[14]
 

Kardonxt

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Any miners want to chime in on the best way to a quick roi? Download nicehash and let it run or is there a more profitable method?
Nicehash is not going to be most profitable unless there are frequent, large, swings in profitability. They take a bigger cut than normal pools because they do all the work for you. Your best bet is to use something like whattomine and setup a miner for whatever the most profitable coin is (Ethereum 99% of the time)
 
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Maybe it's time for some emergency product segmentation by NVidia and AMD. They just need to create gimped versions of their new cards that work perfectly in games, but will automatically downclock to 135MHz when they detect mining code. Lower the MSRP by 25% for the gimped cards, and raise the price by 50% for the mining-enabled cards. Problem solved.

I swear, I had NOTHING to do with this....

NVIDIA to replace RTX 3060 GPU with GA106-302 chip to suppress ETH mining
 

LeftSide

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Substantiation please. Or your assertion is no less laughable than the speculation posted here to the contrary already by others such as myself.

https://wccftech.com/nvidia-calls-a...series-graphics-cards-their-best-launch-ever/

“In the charts published by NVIDIA, the company shows that Ampere GPUs were its fastest ramping architecture to date, resulting in twice the number of end market sales of GeForce RTX 30 graphics cards.”

They have supplied 2x the number of cards than any other architecture to date. It’s not a supply issue...
 
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How about replace the 3080 / 3090 chips and they can keep the 3060's? Seems the most logical step, since people are in need of high end GPU's that can push 2/4k Resolutions with fast response times.

Agreed. I have 3 machines I want to upgrade, one has 2X 980TI, one is single 980TI, and the other is a 1070. The 3060 is just not fast enough to be a logical upgrade.
 

Mchart

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At this rate i'll be rocking my 2080ti for four years, and honestly, it's still doing just fine.
 

Saabjock

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You boys are in the wrong country.
Those darn tariffs and taxes...;)
AMD and Nvidia both know where these will sell without those pesky hindrances.

 
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Secretweapon

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Stop looking at GPUs as "GPUs." They were once primarily used for PC gaming and rendering, now they are more like simulation computation units. Take a look at nVidia GTC on what amphere actually is, a simulation architecture that also happens to be damn good at playing these "videogamez." The categories and quantities of both business/institutional and consumer level customers are dramatically more than what they used to be, pretty easy to see the shortage coming when combined with the supply situation.

Sure mining is causing additional strain, but by no means it is the only cause (or main cause) for that matter. From what I've seen so far, if I was actually purchasing a used card, I'd have better chances of getting a good card from a miner. Most miners who know what they are doing are controlling the power output and cooling. (They will lose profits otherwise.) None of the Overclocked at +XXXmhz/volts inside a closed enclosure of unknow air flow situation. The card also runs at a constant rate. Perhaps the only downside is the additional wear on the fans.
 
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