Whats next for HDDs?

AnIgnorantPerson

Limp Gawd
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Anyone informed on what we are to expect on HDDs over the next 1-5 years in new tech?

I remember reading there was a new tech that was going to multiply the amount of storage current HDDs from 10TBs to like 30-50TBs or something. Was that HAMR? I have a system of 6TB and 2x3TB for 6TB logical drives for my snap RAID and would like to upgrade to 12TB in the future for 12TB parities and 2x6TB data drives but wanted to know what the future held so I can plan and budget over the next couple years.


This is something I just found.
https://blog.seagate.com/craftsman-ship/hamr-next-leap-forward-now/


Also is this being implemented or is it vaporware?
https://blog.seagate.com/craftsman-ship/multi-actuator-technology-a-new-performance-breakthrough/

Another thing
https://www.anandtech.com/show/13935/seagate-hdd-plans-2019


Anyone have any thoughts on this and how this will affect prices?
 
HAMR, MAMR and multi actuator in the higher density drives. Sub 1TB in the next few years (even sub 2TB) will be SSD only as the pricing curve continues to drop.
 
HAMR, MAMR and multi actuator in the higher density drives. Sub 1TB in the next few years (even sub 2TB) will be SSD only as the pricing curve continues to drop.
At what point is it cheaper to buy a 1 TB or even at 2 TB SSD instead of the cheapest HDD?

Will SSD pricing per TB ever be lower than HDD pricing?
 
At what point is it cheaper to buy a 1 TB or even at 2 TB SSD instead of the cheapest HDD?

Will SSD pricing per TB ever be lower than HDD pricing?

that entirely depends on what the reason for them costing more. Is it materials? Is it energy to manufacture them? Is it materials to create the machines that make them? If its purely energy and not raw materials thats the bulk of the cost then it'll take cheap power like fusion to make a difference. Once thorium or fusion happens and if it truly tanks the cost of power like from 10 cents to 1 cent; the possibilities and silly things we can do will be nuts.

It should at some point, my guess is around 10 years.
See HDDs are about to hit 20-40TBs in the next 5 years i doubt SSDs are anywhere near reaching same price per TB
 
See HDDs are about to hit 20-40TBs in the next 5 years i doubt SSDs are anywhere near reaching same price per TB
In the next five years SSDs will reach the amount of space that hdds will have, price is likely to still be a lot higher, but space wise they will be fairly similar, in following five years the not only the ssds will be bigger than hdds but the pricing will slowly match the capacity. I strongly believe in 10 years SSDs will rule the storage, but thats what i expect, a lot of things can change in 10 years.
 
In the next five years SSDs will reach the amount of space that hdds will have, price is likely to still be a lot higher, but space wise they will be fairly similar, in following five years the not only the ssds will be bigger than hdds but the pricing will slowly match the capacity. I strongly believe in 10 years SSDs will rule the storage, but thats what i expect, a lot of things can change in 10 years.
SSDs have been size of HDDs for ages. We ahve had 10+TB SSDs for years but they cost like 20 grand or some zany stuff.
 
If 10+TB SSDs would possess 10-20MB/s (6-8-10 bits per cell) write speed, then no no, thank you!
The bigger the capacity, the bigger files become (movies, ISOs, games etc. which is the main thing we would use such capacities for!) and the more important would be the NAND speeds, even if SLC cache will be bigger too. That SLC would have to be offloaded to NAND, right... and if this procedure lasts for hours....
At the same time a 20TB HDD would be even faster than today (210MB/s today), so maybe 300-400.
 
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At what point is it cheaper to buy a 1 TB or even at 2 TB SSD instead of the cheapest HDD?

Will SSD pricing per TB ever be lower than HDD pricing?

The cost per TB for mechanical and solid state drives have different curves. At the small end of the drive size spectrum, SSD's are already getting very close to becoming less expensive or have already become less expensive when compared in dollars / unit size. It is when the drives are toward the larger size of the spectrum where HDDs still enjoy quite an advantage.

I live by a Microcenter so that's where I pulled these prices from. These are all retail package prices (they have some OEM / bare drives but they are not considerably cheaper and have no warranty). They offer HDDs at:

500GB for $45 (Toshiba)
500GB for $48 (WD Blue)
1TB for $40 (WD Blue)

That is not a typo, the 1TB WD is less than the 500GB drive. It has a higher MSRP (by a mere $2) but Microcenter has a bigger discount on the 1TB model for some reason.

They offer SDDs at:
240GB for $27
480GB for $45
1TB for $85

These are all Inland 2.5" SSDs.

So, we can see that at 500GB and under, SSDs have already reached HDD price. There is absolutely no reason to buy a HDD that small anymore.

At 1TB we see HDDs maintain a price advantage, but it is not huge. As the drives get bigger, the price gap between HDD and SDD grows, quickly. A 2TB WD Blue is $65. If Inland offered a 2TB SDD we can estimate it would cost in the $160 range.

What is happening here is that the cost to make a SSD is mostly the controller, memory and nand. If there's not much nand used, then the cost will be relatively small. The more nand, the more expensive the drive. With HDDs the minimum costs are higher. The housing, actuator, platters and assembly process give the drives a higher floor. However, as the storage space increases the only real change is platter density, and that doesn't escalate as quickly as nand.

It should at some point, my guess is around 10 years.

Well, it already happened at 500GB and under. I think we'll see 1TB SSDs selling for less money than 1TB HDDs much sooner than 10 years, but that seams like a reasonable time frame for SSDs to compete at the 2TB range and possibly larger.

Link me a 10tb ssd from amazon.

So, you may be surprised to know that SSD drive size has already far exceeded HDD drive size. Here's a 30TB SSD. Note that it is not intended for consumers, because it is really expensive. Anything bigger than 2TB or 4TB is really outside the typical user's price range for now.
 
Link me a 10tb ssd from amazon.
Here is a 100TB you can buy today. You might need to sell your Benz to afford it..... SSD density will only continue to increase. We are already (with the new Intel "Ruler" format) to get 1PB in a single U, that will go to 2PB in Q419 with the new Intel cards.
 
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The cost per TB for mechanical and solid state drives have different curves. At the small end of the drive size spectrum, SSD's are already getting very close to becoming less expensive or have already become less expensive when compared in dollars / unit size. It is when the drives are toward the larger size of the spectrum where HDDs still enjoy quite an advantage.

I live by a Microcenter so that's where I pulled these prices from. These are all retail package prices (they have some OEM / bare drives but they are not considerably cheaper and have no warranty). They offer HDDs at:

500GB for $45 (Toshiba)
500GB for $48 (WD Blue)
1TB for $40 (WD Blue)

That is not a typo, the 1TB WD is less than the 500GB drive. It has a higher MSRP (by a mere $2) but Microcenter has a bigger discount on the 1TB model for some reason.

They offer SDDs at:
240GB for $27
480GB for $45
1TB for $85

These are all Inland 2.5" SSDs.

So, we can see that at 500GB and under, SSDs have already reached HDD price. There is absolutely no reason to buy a HDD that small anymore.

At 1TB we see HDDs maintain a price advantage, but it is not huge. As the drives get bigger, the price gap between HDD and SDD grows, quickly. A 2TB WD Blue is $65. If Inland offered a 2TB SDD we can estimate it would cost in the $160 range.

What is happening here is that the cost to make a SSD is mostly the controller, memory and nand. If there's not much nand used, then the cost will be relatively small. The more nand, the more expensive the drive. With HDDs the minimum costs are higher. The housing, actuator, platters and assembly process give the drives a higher floor. However, as the storage space increases the only real change is platter density, and that doesn't escalate as quickly as nand.



Well, it already happened at 500GB and under. I think we'll see 1TB SSDs selling for less money than 1TB HDDs much sooner than 10 years, but that seams like a reasonable time frame for SSDs to compete at the 2TB range and possibly larger.



So, you may be surprised to know that SSD drive size has already far exceeded HDD drive size. Here's a 30TB SSD. Note that it is not intended for consumers, because it is really expensive. Anything bigger than 2TB or 4TB is really outside the typical user's price range for now.

also the warranty write limit is still trash for SSDs. I wouldn't trust SSDs due to wear limits. They are starting to get better but not long ago warranty was only like 70TB. I blow through that fast. Now we are seen 600TB and more for wear which is great.
 
Here's an 8TB Micron for about a grand. Not long ago 4TB was that price.

https://www.amazon.com/Micron-MTFDD...6M0MD4875GRF36JTBA9K&qid=1559309311&s=gateway

That's QLC and it's SATA, but hell, that's price competitive with 1TB drives and better than 2TB drives. I don't need 8TB of flash, but if I did, this would be fine for most read-heavy applications, which is the most common workload.

also the warranty write limit is still trash for SSDs. I wouldn't trust SSDs due to wear limits. They are starting to get better but not long ago warranty was only like 70TB. I blow through that fast. Now we are seen 600TB and more for wear which is great.

If you're intending to pound your storage with writes, you're still looking at spinners or enterprise-grade SSDs.

Which is okay- that's not a common workload ;)
 
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