What if the crypto craze never ends?

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philb2

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I've been thinking a bit, a lot actually, about how everyone expects the crypto-mining craze to crash, because the value of BTC and other cyrpto currencies will crash. What do we (and the manufacturers) do if that crash never happens?

Maybe we will never see the day when you can pay for your groceries or even buy a car with crypto money. But there are still businesses that depend on anonymous cash as part of their "business model." Ransomeware. Illegal drugs. Illegal political payments, especially from countries like Russia. We may not like or approve of these business, but we can't shut them down.

Store of value, just like gold, with the advantage that it is untraceable, and therefore a great means of asset hiding (think divorce cases) or tax evasion.

Now I will be the first to admit that I don't do any sort of mining, don't own any crypto money, and don't follow developments in detail in this marketplace.

What do all you guys think? Is there any reason to think that GPU card pricing will ever return to pre-pandemic level?

Weird: I just got a junk phone call where the caller ID said, "Coin Base In." is Big Brother still alive and kicking?
 
Sir Beregond said:
Why do people keep saying crypto is "anonymous" cash?
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It can be, if you never associate your pii with any of your wallets. The transactions are traceable, but that means nothing if you're unable to find the person who made them.

That said, making that happen takes some work and diligence.
 
philb2 said:
Well, for us as GPU buyers, that would be important. What would replace GPUs for crypto mining?
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These are supposed to be used & others like it
https://www.nvidia.com/en-us/cmp/

The reason why GPU's are so valuable to miners are because of resale value, once mining becomes unprofitable, they have a secondary market they can sell them off to (Gamers). CMP cards only have one purpose.

All it took was one fucking moron to pay the exobitant price that the miner offered and here we are, 9 months into a GPU launch, still without a GPU you cannot purchase on store shelves.
 
TaintedSquirrel said:
ETH will move proof of stake, mining will die, the existing miners might try to flood another coin but nothing is capable of sustaining them profit-wise.
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Mining will have to die if crypto is to work as a currency. You cannot have millions of people just printing money in their homes in perpetuity. If everyone switches to new coins whenever old ones become too difficult to mine, that'd be proof that the whole thing is a ponzi scheme with people ever looking to get in on the ground floor.
 
Smashing Young Man said:
Mining will have to die if crypto is to work as a currency. You cannot have millions of people just printing money in their homes in perpetuity. If everyone switches to new coins whenever old ones become too difficult to mine, that'd be proof that the whole thing is a ponzi scheme with people ever looking to get in on the ground floor.
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Or for historical reference, see the history of the Weimar Republic.
 
philb2 said:
I am appalled by these products. Shows us that Nvidia is a total money-grubber without any regard for the environment or all the "little guys" whose investments in crypto currency will be wiped out. Geez, they are slimy.
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They've always been. That was their business model from the start. They want to be the only game in town, and they will do anything to make that possible. Its in their logo & their name.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invidia

NVLogo_2D_H_thmb.jpg

Notice the green eye, "The Green Eyed Monster" for envy.
 
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Smashing Young Man said:
Mining will have to die if crypto is to work as a currency. You cannot have millions of people just printing money in their homes in perpetuity. If everyone switches to new coins whenever old ones become too difficult to mine, that'd be proof that the whole thing is a ponzi scheme with people ever looking to get in on the ground floor.
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The spirit and goal of peer to peer cryptocurrency is decentralization. Decentralization needs miners with hardware semi reasonable to access and purchase. As long as people get tangential benefits from mining with GPUs somehow (even if through another coin that you can exchange for more well known coins like Ethereum) it will exist and always be profitable when you subtract electricity and hardware costs. Miners need an incentive or else the network dies. If everyone stopped mining Bitcoin it will collapse.
 
Sir Beregond said:
Why do people keep saying crypto is "anonymous" cash?
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Monero.
philb2 said:
Well, for us as GPU buyers, that would be important. What would replace GPUs for crypto mining?
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CPUs. Monero is not capable of being mined via GPU efficiently for example. Regardless of the coin, if it's a loss to mine due to overhead vs. pay then it will self-regulate and difficulty will reduce.
TaintedSquirrel said:
ETH will move proof of stake, mining will die, the existing miners might try to flood another coin but nothing is capable of sustaining them profit-wise.
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When ETH does move to POS then yes there will be an apocalypse for GPU miners. How that whole thing will shake out eventually is anybody's guess at this point. In the short term though I suspect a strong sell-off and bottom dollar prices for used GPUs.
 
If crypto doesn't die, we'll have bigger problems to worry about than not being able to get graphics cards... like the end of the US dollar as the world's reserve currency. That would be... problematic, given what our national debt is. Let's just say graphics card shortages are the least of the problems crypto could cause if you start really thinking about what easily transferrable decentralized money where there's no control over the supply or where it can be used means.

Though it is actually easier to predict what will happen if GPUs get used for mining and it never stops. Either they eventually start making enough cards to account for the steady demand from miners, or we start seeing integrated graphics on motherboards again. That actually was popular for a while. They already have the technology to integrate fairly powerful graphics cards into motherboards, they just don't use it because usually hardcore gamers don't want it and favor dedicated graphics. The Intel Iris Graphics in some laptops can already beat a 560 Ti, and 3050 Ti in laptops is nothing to sneeze at. Remember that we have a lot more room for exotic cooling in a desktop case, and it becomes fairly easy to imagine that as a solution to the problem.

It's also worth noting that if this continues long-term, game developers will take notice of the fact that people can't get their hands on dedicated GPUs and will start making sure their games run with integrated graphics. So we'll see movement from two directions... integrated graphics on motherboards going beyond what laptops already do, and and game developers targeting integrated graphics. After all, think about it... if you're a game developer, you don't want to make games people can't play because they can't afford a graphics card, right? So they'll be forced to optimize game engines for integrated graphics, scale back some of the more ambitious stuff they wanted to do, etc.

Other things we might see would include graphics cards that are deliberately designed with anti-features that discourage miners in a more serious way than just firmware. Like they tend to overclock the RAM and lower the core voltage to get better hashrates, right? Suppose they use RAM chips that are known to run at the rated speed and nothing more, so that miners can't overclock the RAM. Maybe they design it in such a way that it draws a bit more power than normal, and design the power circuitry such that trying to lower the voltage will result it not getting enough juice to keep running. So basically, they would make cards with RAM that can't be OCed, and that use power somewhat inefficiently.
 
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ETH gas is consistently low now. ETH value has dipped. Network difficulty has spiked very high and is not going down any time soon.

The incentive to go spend thousands on GPUs and start mining with rigs is much lower than it was back in Jan/Feb this year. I don't see that changing any time soon.

I'm mining with a few CPUs and GPUs right now and whereas estimated profit was close to $60/day USD at one point it is now around $20. That is a huge drop-off. It would not surprise me if we start seeing demand and supply equalize sooner rather than later in this current scenario.

Unless of course there are other aggravating factors beyond just mining which is everyone's favorite whipping boy around these parts.
 
hajalie24 said:
The spirit and goal of peer to peer cryptocurrency is decentralization. Decentralization needs miners with hardware semi reasonable to access and purchase. As long as people get tangential benefits from mining with GPUs somehow (even if through another coin that you can exchange for more well known coins like Ethereum) it will exist and always be profitable when you subtract electricity and hardware costs. Miners need an incentive or else the network dies. If everyone stopped mining Bitcoin it will collapse.
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Problem is that it becomes less and less decentralized the more difficult it becomes to run, hence gigantic bitcoin farms in China. How much of Bitcoin is just Chinese farms now?
 
Sir Beregond said:
Problem is that it becomes less and less decentralized the more difficult it becomes to run, hence gigantic bitcoin farms in China. How much of Bitcoin is just Chinese farms now?
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Yeah, exactly. Which is why I think GPU mining will always be a thing. People will flock to whatever they can mine with readily available hardware. Once you get to specialized ASICs it defeats a lot of the purpose as it gets more centralized (and ripe for a 51% attack.)
 
athenian200 said:
Though it is actually easier to predict what will happen if GPUs get used for mining and it never stops. Either they eventually start making enough cards to account for the steady demand from miners, or we start seeing integrated graphics on motherboards again. That actually was popular for a while. They already have the technology to integrate fairly powerful graphics cards into motherboards, they just don't use it because usually hardcore gamers don't want it and favor dedicated graphics. The Intel Iris Graphics in some laptops can already beat a 560 Ti, and 3050 Ti in laptops is nothing to sneeze at. Remember that we have a lot more room for exotic cooling in a desktop case, and it becomes fairly easy to imagine that as a solution to the problem.

It's also worth noting that if this continues long-term, game developers will take notice of the fact that people can't get their hands on dedicated GPUs and will start making sure their games run with integrated graphics. So we'll see movement from two directions... integrated graphics on motherboards going beyond what laptops already do, and and game developers targeting integrated graphics. After all, think about it... if you're a game developer, you don't want to make games people can't play because they can't afford a graphics card, right? So they'll be forced to optimize game engines for integrated graphics, scale back some of the more ambitious stuff they wanted to do, etc.


athenian200 said:
Though it is actually easier to predict what will happen if GPUs get used for mining and it never stops. Either they eventually start making enough cards to account for the steady demand from miners, or we start seeing integrated graphics on motherboards again. That actually was popular for a while. They already have the technology to integrate fairly powerful graphics cards into motherboards, they just don't use it because usually hardcore gamers don't want it and favor dedicated graphics. The Intel Iris Graphics in some laptops can already beat a 560 Ti, and 3050 Ti in laptops is nothing to sneeze at. Remember that we have a lot more room for exotic cooling in a desktop case, and it becomes fairly easy to imagine that as a solution to the problem.

It's also worth noting that if this continues long-term, game developers will take notice of the fact that people can't get their hands on dedicated GPUs and will start making sure their games run with integrated graphics. So we'll see movement from two directions... integrated graphics on motherboards going beyond what laptops already do, and and game developers targeting integrated graphics. After all, think about it... if you're a game developer, you don't want to make games people can't play because they can't afford a graphics card, right? So they'll be forced to optimize game engines for integrated graphics, scale back some of the more ambitious stuff they wanted to do, etc.


athenian200 said:
If crypto doesn't die, we'll have bigger problems to worry about than not being able to get graphics cards... like the end of the US dollar as the world's reserve currency. That would be... problematic, given what our national debt is. Let's just say graphics card shortages are the least of the problems crypto could cause if you start really thinking about what easily transferrable decentralized money where there's no control over the supply or where it can be used means.

Though it is actually easier to predict what will happen if GPUs get used for mining and it never stops. Either they eventually start making enough cards to account for the steady demand from miners, or we start seeing integrated graphics on motherboards again. That actually was popular for a while. They already have the technology to integrate fairly powerful graphics cards into motherboards, they just don't use it because usually hardcore gamers don't want it and favor dedicated graphics. The Intel Iris Graphics in some laptops can already beat a 560 Ti, and 3050 Ti in laptops is nothing to sneeze at. Remember that we have a lot more room for exotic cooling in a desktop case, and it becomes fairly easy to imagine that as a solution to the problem.

It's also worth noting that if this continues long-term, game developers will take notice of the fact that people can't get their hands on dedicated GPUs and will start making sure their games run with integrated graphics. So we'll see movement from two directions... integrated graphics on motherboards going beyond what laptops already do, and and game developers targeting integrated graphics. After all, think about it... if you're a game developer, you don't want to make games people can't play because they can't afford a graphics card, right? So they'll be forced to optimize game engines for integrated graphics, scale back some of the more ambitious stuff they wanted to do, etc.

Other things we might see would include graphics cards that are deliberately designed with anti-features that discourage miners in a more serious way than just firmware. Like they tend to overclock the RAM and lower the core voltage to get better hashrates, right? Suppose they use RAM chips that are known to run at the rated speed and nothing more, so that miners can't overclock the RAM. Maybe they design it in such a way that it draws a bit more power than normal, and design the power circuitry such that trying to lower the voltage will result it not getting enough juice to keep running. So basically, they would make cards with RAM that can't be OCed, and that use power somewhat inefficiently.
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Excellent insights. I wonder how long it will take the game developers to respond. Months? Years? What tradeoffs would be necessary?
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athenian200 said:
It's also worth noting that if this continues long-term, game developers will take notice of the fact that people can't get their hands on dedicated GPUs and will start making sure their games run with integrated graphics. So we'll see movement from two directions... integrated graphics on motherboards going beyond what laptops already do, and and game developers targeting integrated graphics. After all, think about it... if you're a game developer, you don't want to make games people can't play because they can't afford a graphics card, right? So they'll be forced to optimize game engines for integrated graphics, scale back some of the more ambitious stuff they wanted to do, etc.

Other things we might see would include graphics cards that are deliberately designed with anti-features that discourage miners in a more serious way than just firmware. Like they tend to overclock the RAM and lower the core voltage to get better hashrates, right? Suppose they use RAM chips that are known to run at the rated speed and nothing more, so that miners can't overclock the RAM. Maybe they design it in such a way that it draws a bit more power than normal, and design the power circuitry such that trying to lower the voltage will result it not getting enough juice to keep running. So basically, they would make cards with RAM that can't be OCed, and that use power somewhat inefficiently.
Click to expand...

Honestly I see it much more likely that certain high-profile people in the business *cough Tim Sweeney cough* will start becoming very vocal about the situation "Hey Nvidia, our customers can't get the graphics cards they need, please fix" than developers are starting to optimize games for integrated graphics. In fact I'm highly suprised they haven't been more vocal about it already. This is highly damaging to gaming industry and it's not just game developers, also gamer pheripheral companies like Razer, Logitech etc.
 
Smashing Young Man said:
Mining will have to die if crypto is to work as a currency. You cannot have millions of people just printing money in their homes in perpetuity. If everyone switches to new coins whenever old ones become too difficult to mine, that'd be proof that the whole thing is a ponzi scheme with people ever looking to get in on the ground floor.
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This shows how little you actually know about crypto mining.
 
kirbyrj said:
This shows how little you actually know about crypto mining.
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Why do you say that? To me at least, the crypto mining and crypto currency seems like a long-running version of the same story that drove Gamestop's stock price crazy a while back. It's like being famous for being famous. Or as people in Texas say, "All hat and no cattle."
 
hajalie24 said:
Yeah, exactly. Which is why I think GPU mining will always be a thing. People will flock to whatever they can mine with readily available hardware. Once you get to specialized ASICs it defeats a lot of the purpose as it gets more centralized (and ripe for a 51% attack.)
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What is a 51% attack. (disclosure: I know diddly squat about the business of mining.)
 
philb2 said:
Why do you say that? To me at least, the crypto mining and crypto currency seems like a long-running version of the same story that drove Gamestop's stock price crazy a while back. It's like being famous for being famous. Or as people in Texas say, "All hat and no cattle."
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Without mining most cryptocurrencies will fail (at least the ones with Proof of Work algorithms), simple as that. See my response earlier.

philb2 said:
What is a 51% attack. (disclosure: I know diddly squat about the business of mining.)
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Basically if one entity controls 51% of the mining power they can control the network and "approve" falsified transactions.
 
Cryptocurrency won't disappear.
Well for one we might see the transition from silicon to some other method of making semiconductors.
When that happens, some different types of computing devices might appear. Divergence should happen.
 
philb2 said:
I am appalled by these products. Shows us that Nvidia is a total money-grubber without any regard for the environment or all the "little guys" whose investments in crypto currency will be wiped out. Geez, they are slimy.
Click to expand...

So what you're saying is that Nvidia is essentially like every other corporation out there? That they're on a mission to make money instead of "doing you a solid"?
 
UltraTaco said:
But thn who will want to use it for legitimate purposes? If it cnt be tied into legitimate uses nd interwebbed together with real world, no one will need crypto.

Right?

It's like city of ..whatever, Paris, made there own currency nd its citizens use it, but it cn only be used inside city transactions. Who would want that kind of currency?
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It's not a bad thing, and used to be common. The problem is when the exchange rate and value are manipulated.
 
hajalie24 said:
Without mining most cryptocurrencies will fail (at least the ones with Proof of Work algorithms), simple as that. See my response earlier.

Basically if one entity controls 51% of the mining power they can control the network and "approve" falsified transactions.
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Just a slightly off-topic but still kinda on-topic, Sweden will trial a digital currency E-krona. I'm sure these kinds of currencies doesn't need any mining involved. Also based on providers, could be banks or others service providers, based on tokens that can be tracked back to the central bank, is also using nodes when doing transactions to make sure the transactions will be legit etc. It's largely adapting the same kind of structure it appears as cryptocurrencies are doing but central bank is backing it up so there's less of a chance anything "unexpected" or wrong doings are happening. The value of e-Krona in this case will be the same so 1 E-krona = 1 Swedish crown so that will also avoid the usual fluctuation but I wonder how the value works out if you play with the thought we'd shut down the old system. Will also be interesting to know if government makes its own digital currency, what about the other options out there?

I'm not deeply interested in cryptocurrencies personally but thought it was an interesting example to bring out what kind of trials governments might try in the near future as far as digital currencies goes.
 
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UltraTaco said:
Am sorry, do not understand foreign language.
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I googled it. It means thieves and tricksters.

I don't think that currency should be any more traceable than it already is. Imagine if your country (whatever country) was taken over by a dictator, and you wanted to contribute to an opposition political party or movement. The transaction would get red-flagged, and you could then be jailed, killed, or otherwise silenced. Cash is king.
 
I can in general, afford to build a pretty badass super computer even with the prices the way they are.. But instead, I financed a brand new truck, bought a reasonably cheap boat, a reasonably cheap motorcycle and have only used my computer for research since march. I have not booted up a game since January and I feel pretty good about it
 
matt167 said:
I can in general, afford to build a pretty badass super computer even with the prices the way they are.. But instead, I financed a brand new truck, bought a reasonably cheap boat, a reasonably cheap motorcycle and have only used my computer for research since march. I have not booted up a game since January and I feel pretty good about it
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cool story. whats it got to do with the topic?
 
pendragon1 said:
cool story. whats it got to do with the topic?
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Everything with the topic... Boats, motorcycles and RV's are on fire right now. I guarantee that enthusiast PC's are not on fire right now... Markets will shift/ have shifted. It might not even be because of coin mining, but markets have shifted. This will happen if gaming stays expensive
 
kirbyrj said:
This shows how little you actually know about crypto mining.
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An easy comment to throw out there, a much harder one to defend.

You cryptoboosters sound like an unholy combination of flat-Earthers, Bernie Madoff, and a used car salesman. I know you want to keep the hustle going for as long as possible, but your bullshit is wasted on me.

For your sake, I hope you are a Madoff hustler, not a flat-Earth true believer. Hustlers usually know their schemes will come to an inevitable end and have some kind escape route planned. The flat-Earth types will ride that out-of-control train until it jumps the tracks and crashes into a gorge, screaming Why God!? with their dying breath.
 
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Smashing Young Man said:
Any easy comment to throw out there, a much harder one to defend.

You cryptoboosters sound like an unholy combination of flat-Earthers, Bernie Madoff, and a used car salesman. I know you want to keep the hustle going for as long as possible, but your bullshit is wasted on me.

For your sake, I hope you are a Madoff hustler, not a flat-Earth true believer. Hustlers usually know their schemes will come to an inevitable end and have some kind escape route planned. The flat-Earth types will ride that out-of-control train until it jumps the tracks and crashes into a gorge, screaming Why God!? with their dying breath.
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Or you can compare the crypto craze to how the stock market always cleans out the "little guys," the "retail investors," who jump into the stock market precisely because it has become frothy. So they end up buying into a late phase in a bull market. Then when the market turns, they panic, locking in their losses. In 2008, I knew some people who converted all their stock to cash. The smart people simply stayed in the market, which has done exceedingly well since the 2008 lows. Right now we are in a bull market for crypto, because enough people believe either others' bs stories.

If someone ever actually minted crypto money, the metal would be kryptonite.
 
In answer to OP.

Everything comes to an end sooner or later. Bitcoin or USD fiat cash. It doesn't matter.

Things are worth what people are willing to pay for it. Doesn't matter whether you think something is a 'scam' or not really. Right now I can buy gold with BTC, BCH, ETH, or even DOGE if I want. Is gold worthless now?

Just the way the world has always worked.
 
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