HardOCP News
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Some of the predictions in this 1988 article are pretty damn good. Definitely worth reading. 
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What 2013 Is Supposed To Look Like, According To 1988
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rudy
[H]F Junkie
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I love the way future articles always assume that the basic human nature and greed will somehow disappear in the not to distant future. Robots that do it all cost more and make less profit than robots that do less, in 2013 instead of having single computing devices that do it all half the people are running around with 3x the number of computing devices people thought might exist because apple figured out if they made devices deficient in function that people would just buy more devices. Then there's all these ideas about utopian grand social projects and public transportation that never materialized.
Some of their buildings though do remind me slightly of things being built in Asia or the mid east. I guess they missed the part where America would collapse and build nothing interesting for 25 years strait.
Some of their buildings though do remind me slightly of things being built in Asia or the mid east. I guess they missed the part where America would collapse and build nothing interesting for 25 years strait.
They weren't too far off... They mention robots would be a common household item... Not quite but getting there with roomba etc still niche but getting more us.
They seemed to have skipped the tablets and phones since they said robots would be after PCs are mainstream... I suppose those items could be sort of included in the "PC" genre generically.
The 200 story skyscrapers were a bit aggressive considering this is only looking 25 years into the future... The planning and actually building of said building(s) would be occurring something like 5-8 years ahead of completion??? Considering their picture is almost a completely new/replaced skyline... I just don't see 25 years being realistic....
Well it pretty much is like every other in the future articles... Where the "big" thing doesn't even happen and something they didn't see (like cell phones) is really the "big" thing not mentioned.
They seemed to have skipped the tablets and phones since they said robots would be after PCs are mainstream... I suppose those items could be sort of included in the "PC" genre generically.
The 200 story skyscrapers were a bit aggressive considering this is only looking 25 years into the future... The planning and actually building of said building(s) would be occurring something like 5-8 years ahead of completion??? Considering their picture is almost a completely new/replaced skyline... I just don't see 25 years being realistic....
Well it pretty much is like every other in the future articles... Where the "big" thing doesn't even happen and something they didn't see (like cell phones) is really the "big" thing not mentioned.
CaptNumbNutz
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LA could have been like that had Californian politicians not nearly bankrupted their state.
D
Deleted member 109755
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It's hard to meet that expectation when the politicans routinely make us take 3 steps back when we want to take 1 step forward.
Fixed that for you.
Democrats have had a majority in Sacramento since before 1988.
And they have done such a fine job voters just gave them a supermajority.. again
Truth.
funkydmunky
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[H] I love these time-capsule articles you pull out.
Keep up the good work.
Keep up the good work.
Red Falcon
[H]ard DCOTM December 2023
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Um, no.
This was the cyberpunk world everyone thought the future would be in the 80's and 90's:
But instead we have this anti-cyberpunk Apple/Microsoft/Google bullshit:
LAAAAAME.
As several others said, the "big things" they got wrong, but a lot of the "little things" they got right - like email, video-on-demand, online banking (though the means is different), Digital meuseums (though online not on laserdisc --- did Laserdisc ever really have *any* momentum? I seem to remember everything going from tape -> cd -> DVD (except music, which skipped the DVD and gone straight digital, and video which went from Tape to DVD)
I always shake my head though at all the "robots" it seems every single one of these articles predicts we'll have robots out the wazoo in the future, all the way back to the 60 though the modern 2013, have we not yet figured out most robots are not comming for a long, long, long, long time?
I always shake my head though at all the "robots" it seems every single one of these articles predicts we'll have robots out the wazoo in the future, all the way back to the 60 though the modern 2013, have we not yet figured out most robots are not comming for a long, long, long, long time?
Red Falcon
[H]ard DCOTM December 2023
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The first problem with robots is that they are not a lucrative investment, people simply do not need them as they thought we would 25 years ago.
The second problem is the fact that, and they addressed it correctly in the article, that the 'learning', or problem solving, capabilities would be performed through the hardware, not the programming/software.
Until ZISC processors ever (realistically) see the light of day, we won't have processors or neural networks with true adaptive/learning capabilities.
This sounds like science fiction, but ZISC processors have been around for years.
The only problem with them is that they were expensive, proprietary, and only had a hand full of applications, such as database-queuing efficiency.
The reason our current robot technology is so pitiful is because we are having to build adaptive software (takes decades to develop properly) running on top of CISC/RISC processors that have static instruction sets that are incapable of adapting to new functions and processes.
This is why I laugh every time someone mentions Skynet, it's not going to happen with CISC or RISC processors, the adapting has to be done at the hardware-level for artificial or true thinking capabilities.
The second problem is the fact that, and they addressed it correctly in the article, that the 'learning', or problem solving, capabilities would be performed through the hardware, not the programming/software.
Until ZISC processors ever (realistically) see the light of day, we won't have processors or neural networks with true adaptive/learning capabilities.
This sounds like science fiction, but ZISC processors have been around for years.
The only problem with them is that they were expensive, proprietary, and only had a hand full of applications, such as database-queuing efficiency.
The reason our current robot technology is so pitiful is because we are having to build adaptive software (takes decades to develop properly) running on top of CISC/RISC processors that have static instruction sets that are incapable of adapting to new functions and processes.
This is why I laugh every time someone mentions Skynet, it's not going to happen with CISC or RISC processors, the adapting has to be done at the hardware-level for artificial or true thinking capabilities.
I took this to mean cd-ROM. Like Encarta, so I called that a hit on their part.
Oh and there was a DVD-audio format that was competing with SACD.
Red Falcon
[H]ard DCOTM December 2023
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^ Yeah... if only I could convince myself that it weren't so.
kbrickley
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These kinds of articles are always interesting more for the stuff they miss usually than for the stuff they get right ... extrapolating a progression of existing capabilities and technologies into the future is fairly easy and, except for when the technologies are replaced by an unforeseen technology, they usually do pretty good at this (except for timing sometimes) ... predicting the progression of social factors is always a crap shoot since people don't always operate logically or on a schedule ... predicting paradigm shifts or sea changes is almost impossible and is generally blind luck
I think robots will never be that useful in the home but robots are already heavily used in business, government, and the military ... using robots controlled or manipulated by humans gets around the learning issues and allows us to use something that is far more expendable than a human being in dangerous situations (disarming bombs, dropping bombs on remote targets, working in dangerous environments, etc) ... hopefully, if we ever perfect cloning of humans we won't treat the clones as humanoid versions of the other machines we have created
I think robots will never be that useful in the home but robots are already heavily used in business, government, and the military ... using robots controlled or manipulated by humans gets around the learning issues and allows us to use something that is far more expendable than a human being in dangerous situations (disarming bombs, dropping bombs on remote targets, working in dangerous environments, etc) ... hopefully, if we ever perfect cloning of humans we won't treat the clones as humanoid versions of the other machines we have created
I'm not sure, they mentioned "like music used to be stored on" so I suppose they might have meant CD-sized discs, so technically they were right, if a few years late, since today nearly everything is online instead of on CD/DVD (to the point manufacturers are starting to build computers without optical drives, at least one company openly declaring them "Legacy technology" last year)
Oh I remember Laserdiscs, they were massive, about the size of an LP, and only once in my life did I see one used... (one lesson in 1 science class had some companion info on a laserdisc, and that was the only time I ever saw one in action.)
This, so much This... but how much of it did you expect? I'm like the guys who wrote the article, I had no idea the direction Technology would go... even in the 90s I was still banking on portable storage (though I was predicting holographic storage would be teh wave of the future) I never thought the internet would make 90% of data-storage applications obsolete... On the other paw, I did see smartphones as a possible future, though less phone and more data, more like modern tablets (I blame StarTrek for that, especially TNG, they nailed Tablets almost perfectly! --- though more than a few series had the idea before, during, and after ST...)
Double-post due to lack of edit:
@ Kranium:
Sorry, I misread that - Yes, I remember the DVD-audio format, I believe there were actually a few companies (likely japanese) that produced DVD-Audio players that they claiemd would replace CD players in entertainment systems, portable, and in cars. I actually was looking into that when I first heard about it because I was tired of changing CDs all the time and a DVD could hold several CDs worth of music.
@ Kranium:
Sorry, I misread that - Yes, I remember the DVD-audio format, I believe there were actually a few companies (likely japanese) that produced DVD-Audio players that they claiemd would replace CD players in entertainment systems, portable, and in cars. I actually was looking into that when I first heard about it because I was tired of changing CDs all the time and a DVD could hold several CDs worth of music.
The world is surprisingly undifferent to me. Anything newish is from that availability of the internet but everything we have now existed then, although in some cases a more simplistic or bulkier form, in 1988. If anything, the browser and HTML and other standards were more responsible for 1/2 of the change we have now directly or indirectly. And those are purely execution and not technological innovations.
Runningflame570
Limp Gawd
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Fixed that (accurately) for you.
Without proposition 13, CA wouldn't have gotten into nearly the mess that it has before. The whole thing darn near bankrupted not just the state but countless municipalities as well.
That doesn't mean that LA would be like that though, a car crazy culture, and a lack of reasonable public transportation really at the root of all of their transportation problems. Those also turn into pollution problems, sprawl problems, and resultant financial problems for the area. The Bay Area of CA also has traffic problems, but not nearly as bad as LA does despite having about twice the population density of the Greater LA area.
The difference is that the bay area has good public transportation and that many people don't feel the need to own a car.
Many of the other things that didn't come true didn't because as they often do futurists underestimated the cost and difficulty (household robots, teleconferencing for everyone), or they grossly overestimated the utility (computers in desks, household robots, "smart" appliances). The mere fact that they thought a robot that "talks" like Billy Ray Cyrus would be a good idea just shows that they're confusing the-ability-to do something with the-desire-to do so.
Security, privacy, and inertia also outright kill many futurist ideas before they can get off the ground. People don't want to have to worry about someone spying on them naked through their videophone, even if they flash people over Skype in their free time. As another example, management reluctance and security concerns have limited teleworking to a pretty small niche.
I wouldn't go *quite* that far, while it's purely optional, I know lots and lots and lots of people who do video-calling with skype and constantly harass both me and my mother to buy a camera for our respective PCs (on the other paw, my dad's laptop has one built in and he uses it all the time) I think it has more to do with (1) the fact it's optional and you more-or-less choose the time (you can not accept video calls, or appear offline) as opposed to being mandatory (every call is a video call and it will keep ringing and harass you until you answer, ala landline calls) and (2) certain demographics of people who just "accept" that this is "the new norm" and adapt.
Also a very few smart appliances have become relatively common place, especially the timer-operated coffee maker. While it's not a specific appliance, I do know a lot of people who use their tablet or laptop in the kitchen when cooking instead of printing out the recipe.
The PC-In-desk had a nitch when it was very helpful, namely in that in-between time when 95% of all paperwork was literally paper and monitors were all massive CRTs that otherwise took up the whole desk. Now that so much of that pwper-work is electronic, and LED monitors are thinner than the average novel, there isn't much call for it...
As for household robots... that is less the "lack of utility" than it is the "doesn't work and costs too much" If I had an actual lawn instead of just a dozen square feet of grass to cut, I would but a robot lawn-mower, and if I had carpets instead of hardwood I would buy a robot vaccume, but in both cases, they're prohibitively expensive *and* unreliable... work out the bugs and drop the price (and fix the economy) and I think you'd see a much larger interest in household robots.
Runningflame570
Limp Gawd
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Correct, but as you're noted it's a different from the POTS system which WOULD be prohibitively expensive to upgrade so everyone can do video calls over their landline.
Fair enough, but I'd consider what they envisioned to be an order of magnitude different. There is a fair gap between timer-operated coffee makers and ovens that magically make your cinnamon rolls for you with no effort on your part (I could have misunderstood the implication of the article there).
Fair enough again, although I'd still say the cost factor would have made them difficult for schools to swallow. OLPC hasn't really gotten off the ground in most places and they're far less expensive than a PC in a desk would likely be even today.
Specialized robots versus generalized ones. Looking over their example robot it would likely be very expensive, noisy, AND unlikely to work well or at all. I don't think there is much hope for Rosy anytime soon given that the specific functions required for household tasks differ pretty dramatically.
LeninGHOLA
Vladimir Hayt
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LA will never be a beautiful city.
mlambert890
Limp Gawd
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Very much agree. And I would say it isn't even the economy. I spend a ton of money maintaining the lawn. If there were any chance a robotic lawnmower would work a whole bunch would be sold in my development (and it's a middle class development)
Similarly, I have a Roomba, but more because it was a technological curiosity and my personal and professional life has always revolved around technology so I had to check it out. When normal people ask "hey, so how does that work!" I have to honestly tell them to not bother. It's a good theory but in practice it's not a great implementation.
Smart appliances, on the other hand, are everywhere, they just aren't quite in the form that futurists would have predicted and it happened gradually so people don't necessarily recognize the advancement. I was 18 in 1988 so I pretty vividly remember the state of things back then. My current kitchen absolutely would look like science fiction to the 18 year old me between ovens with digital interfaces that allow you to easily set up what you're cooking (and actually work), WIFI enabled thermostats that learn patterns and can be remotely triggered from a smart phone, centrally monitored home security cameras that are motion activated and record audio and video and can be checked from a smartphone, etc. Every "lifestyle" device I have today either didn't exist in 1988 at all or has been made a lot better.
It's easy to be jaded and say "yeah a car is still a car", because you can only see "progress", as a gleaming gravidic drive hover pod, but take any 2013 hybrid vehicle and transport it back to 1988 and park it next to the typical POS on the road back then and people would think it was from a secret military project.
Futurists tend to "over predict", but then people also tend to under appreciate. That's human nature IMO. That lack of satisfaction with the status quo, combined with big expectations of what might happen, is what keeps us moving forward.
Take even a gas engine 2013 car and do that, and they'd have no idea what to do with it, and they wouldn't have the tools to do anything. Especially once you get down to the harness and electronics, cars have changed a hell of a lot in 20 years. The externals just remain similar.
Uh, already first page, I took the metro rail (monorail) here in Miami when I was a kid back in 1988. Today it's really the only way to get downtown, unless you're happy to spend two hours a day in jammed up traffic burning overpriced fuel and going nowhere fast. Bill doesn't need to check his "electric map" because that's how it is everyday. Electrorail cars,... what? Also, why did they make the asphalt so shiny in those illustrations Manufacturing jobs will be 16.9% of the labor force in 2010 Smart washing machines? Nobody has delivered on their promise of WebOS in a washing machine Computers will replace desks in the classrooms of tomorrow? Nah, I just hope the school districts aren't paying $180 for each paper textbook like I have to. Every student will carry a 3x5 computer that must be turned off at all times to prevent disruption to the class and to their own education Bill takes the company helicopter, yea I do that all the time, fuck the traffic It's fun tearing this stuff apart.
Also, why did they make the asphalt so shiny in those illustrations Manufacturing jobs will be 16.9% of the labor force in 2010 Smart washing machines? Nobody has delivered on their promise of WebOS in a washing machine Computers will replace desks in the classrooms of tomorrow? Nah, I just hope the school districts aren't paying $180 for each paper textbook like I have to. Every student will carry a 3x5 computer that must be turned off at all times to prevent disruption to the class and to their own education Bill takes the company helicopter, yea I do that all the time, fuck the traffic It's fun tearing this stuff apart.Yup, they didn't anticipate that with a cultural shift to catering towards the lowest common denominator, socialism handouts, lack of focus on education, and total lack of family planning among the least educated and poorest members of society (many of which are illegal to boot) that manual labor would be virtually infinite and dirt cheap.
Then again, they left themselves an out in that this possible foreseen future was based on a course of wise decisions up to this date, which obviously have not occurred.
AT&T actually attempted this in small areas IIRC, they also bought into the "all phones will be videophones" philosophy, and I saw a demonstration of the technology over POTS and it was impressive, but as you said the cost was too prohibitive untill the advent of broadband internet access.
I think the implication was more a programmable oven that would take the cinnamon rolls (presumably made by their robot) and (1) keep them preserved until time to cook (combination fridge/oven?
) and then cook them the right time/temperature, the latter of which is possible if not produced (our microwaves have pre-sets, an oven could also) though your right, even in my more "down to earth" version they're ignoring the fact the dough would spoil if left in the oven and they describe no means of getting the dough INTO the oven...I think right now it's a cost issue, I keep reading about schools testing laptop and ipad programs for their students, If the economy as stronger and costs were lower I think something of this sort would have happened, though I think it would still be portable devices not built-in devices for schools.
Indeed, considering the fact moore's law has already failed us, I'd call it humerus, though arguably specialized robots do exist and could be built on a consumer level if we desired. Window-cleaning robots would just be modified car wipers mounted on rails, a "bed changing robot" would likely utilize a pair of clamps and a "roll" of pre-assembled bed material that had been stripped form the bed and dumped down a hatch to a laundry robot that sorted then laid things out to facilitate the bed-making process. If we break it down into individual tasks for individual machines it's a lot more logical and less prohibitive technologically, though we're still looking at a rather high level of automation for a consumer home...
Consumer robots is a bust in america. Most devices are *lucky* to get to a prototype, and then they're so expensive they never make it to production. I think most are scared off by the Roomba and how it failed to live up to it's hype. speaking of which...
Miniaturization does not work yet, we don't have the technology. Now, if they basically took an upright vac, stabilized it and programmed it properly, it would work nicely, but it would be difficult to hide and would require either MASSIVE batteries or some form of power cord which would get tangled constantly. With enough work I can imagine a future roomba being successful, but not yet...
I must be out of touch, I've never seen a digital oven that worked, closest I've come is one with a digital timer and self-cleaning system that every time the power went out reset and failed... Also we went a very different direction from what the article predicted, it had no idea of the "wireless boom" that occurred with cellphones, so I purposefully excluded that from my comment, but I agree, as I said myself, the ipad looks very similar to the datapads used on StarTrek: TNG, which was airing somewhere around that time, so, yes, a truly modern home with all the techno-trimmings would look like a starship to someone form just 25 years ago thanks in large part to the cellular boom.
To some extent yes and to some extent no... I agree we've made massive improvements in emmisions and energy consumption thanks to hybrids and such, but when you get right down to it, we're still using a gasoline-powered internal combustion engine to make a metal husk roll on rubber wheels down an asphalt highway. That's not what they were expecting at all (of course to be fair, the flying car's been done and everyone's decided it was a failure mainly due to the risk of traffic-accidents involving layer-upon-layer of traffic... (not to mention things like required fuel for vertical takeoff) Though I could see something like a hovercar that floats just above the ground appearing one day.
I agree, for the most part, though they got the nail right on the head with email (I'd include SMS in that category considering for many of the tings mentioned we would today use SMS instead and achieve the same goal) The little things the got right, but these were very "utilitarian" improvements (especially considering in the 80s there were wall-timers that could turn appliances off and on based on the time, it's a logical leap that newer appliances would incorporate these directly, like coffee makers) but when going for the "big" innovations, they tend to go hog-wild. I seriously question if any of these writers had any sort of science background. I dont think any of us on here would EVER predict "in 25 years we'll have super-advanced robot servants"... (even completely disregarding the economy)
Red Falcon
[H]ard DCOTM December 2023
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Self-repairing chips and circuitry is definitely a first step.
Until ZISC or ZISC-similar processors are brought into the mainstream though, the whole Skynet thinking will be just a reality.