Was Nvidia claim had more volume of Ampere cards at launch than previous generation true ?

LukeTbk

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Both card launched late september of their respective year (2018 - 2020)

According to Steam hardware survey:
https://web.archive.org/web/20190409092426/https://store.steampowered.com/hwsurvey/videocard/

In 2018 for Turing:
...... Nov/ Dec / Jan
2060..: - / - / -
2070..: - / .17% / .33%
2080..: - / .22% / .31%
2080ti: - / - / .15%
Total.: - / .39% / .79%


2020 for Ampere:
......: Nov / Dec / Jan
3060Ti: - / - / .27%
3080..: .23% / .48% / .66%
3090..: - / - / .23%
Total.: .23% / .48% / 1.16%


I imagine there could be some lags and some issues using steam hardware survey, but has long has those issues are similar over time it should not matter too much. around 3 more time 3080 than 3090 do seem to match the little public numbers few resellers gave us in the past, 3070 should rapidly get close to the 3080 numbers once they show up.

The number of monthly active users grew from 90m to 120m from 2018 to 2020, so achieving to get 1% of the users now should be around 33% more of them.

1.16 * 1.33 / .79 = 1.953 (almost twice as much)

If Ampere is significantly more popular on non steam gaming machine like miners, it could mean more than twice as much cards.

Pascal was much more popular, 4 month after it's launch the 1080 had .64% of the market, same has the 3080, but the steam user base was around half of what it is now, making it probably smaller in absolute numbers.

In total market share of the whole pascal family in september 2016 they had:

1070: 1.03%
1060: .65%
1080: .64%
total: 2.32%

If the steam user base was half of what it is now that would be the same numbers of Ampere, if Ampere is more popular among miners now than Pascal was at launch, it could be an higher amount of them were sold.


 
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Definitely. I saw an analysis earlier that showed for every RDNA2 card being sold, there were about 37 or 38 Ampere cards being sold. They are definitely producing them in volume. It's just the demand is through the roof compared to 2018 and also we are simultaneously in a mining boom (remember bitcoin and alt-coins were in a wasteland in 2018).

Also in 2018 there just wasn't that much of an incentive to upgrade. People who bought $699 2080 Tis in 2016 were greeted with a card that is what, 25% faster when both are overclocked? For $1200? It didn't seem like a good value then, especially since ray tracing was DOA at the time. And people's wallets were tight back then as the stock market was crashing and the bear market didn't bottom out until January of 2019, so that was a good 5 months after launch when everyone's pocketbook tight.
 

x509

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Definitely. I saw an analysis earlier that showed for every RDNA2 card being sold, there were about 37 or 38 Ampere cards being sold. They are definitely producing them in volume. It's just the demand is through the roof compared to 2018 and also we are simultaneously in a mining boom (remember bitcoin and alt-coins were in a wasteland in 2018).

Also in 2018 there just wasn't that much of an incentive to upgrade. People who bought $699 2080 Tis in 2016 were greeted with a card that is what, 25% faster when both are overclocked? For $1200? It didn't seem like a good value then, especially since ray tracing was DOA at the time. And people's wallets were tight back then as the stock market was crashing and the bear market didn't bottom out until January of 2019, so that was a good 5 months after launch when everyone's pocketbook tight.
So what do we have now? A "perfect storm" for shortages of Ampere cards? And also AMD's 6000s?
 

x509

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Time to buy Nvidia stock and ride the wave?
Nah. The 2021 profits have already been priced in for Nvidia. Besides, the entire market is way over priced right now. Only a matter of time before the inevitable "correction." (And don't get me started on the Gamestop mass lunacy.)
 

Archaea

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Nah. The 2021 profits have already been priced in for Nvidia. Besides, the entire market is way over priced right now. Only a matter of time before the inevitable "correction." (And don't get me started on the Gamestop mass lunacy.)
I don’t think it’s priced in at all. Nvidia has been about the same price for six months. Nobody knew the cards would sell as well as they are. In large part because of crypto profits skyrocketing only in the last month or two.

But your point on the entire market being too high is very valid.
 
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So what do we have now? A "perfect storm" for shortages of Ampere cards? And also AMD's 6000s?

Nvidia's problem is demand is at historic levels. AMD's problem is too many companies are competing for TSMC wafers right now and their own allocation is spread across too many products, it really doesn't have anything to do with demand. For example if even if demand was as low as 2018 levels for new GPUs, AMD cards would still be perpetually out of stock because their supply situation is a total joke right now.

To really illustrate how bad AMD's wafer supply issues are right now, AMD is losing market share to Intel post-Zen 3 launch. Because they are utterly supply constrained with all the mouths TSMC has to feed + most of AMD's wafers going to console production.
 
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kirbyrj

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The "steam hardware survey" argument fails to take into account that Turing was a poor value card in general. Comparable Pascal cards were plentiful and cheaper, and people saw no real reason to upgrade.
 

sethk

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Another independent data point is the number of benchmarks run with unique system IDs.
I had seen a comparison of that over time compared to pascal and turing and the numbers are much, much higher for ampere, even if you might suspect that more ampere users bothered to run them than in the past, which sounds unlikely to me.
 
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LukeTbk

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The "steam hardware survey" argument fails to take into account that Turing was a poor value card in general. Comparable Pascal cards were plentiful and cheaper, and people saw no real reason to upgrade.
But both Pascal and Turing was checked here, not just Turing launch.
 

Sir Beregond

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Everybody who had a decent Pascal card waited so demand to upgrade this generation is through the roof. Turing was such a shitshow of bad value. Demand is absolutely through the roof for Ampere cards.

AMD's problem is that all their products are on TSMC 7nm and so they are spread a bit thin. If recent numbers seen are true, then the bulk of their alloted 7nm went towards PS5/XBOX then Zen 2/3 and down at the very bottom, RDNA2.
 
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