VW Says Combustion Cars Will Fade Away after 2026

Discussion in '[H]ard|OCP Front Page News' started by Megalith, Dec 8, 2018.

  1. Megalith

    Megalith 24-bit/48kHz Staff Member

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    Volkswagen is predicting that 2026 will mark the beginning of the end for combustion vehicles. The world’s largest automaker has already made plans to spend $50 billion over the next five years to transition to self-driving, electric cars. “VW plans to launch fully or partly electric versions across its lineup of more than 300 cars, vans, trucks and motorbikes by 2030.”

    “Our colleagues are working on the last platform for vehicles that aren’t CO2 neutral,” Michael Jost, strategy chief for Volkswagen’s namesake brand, said Tuesday at an industry conference near the company’s headquarters in Wolfsburg, Germany. “We’re gradually fading out combustion engines to the absolute minimum.”
     
  2. Eickst

    Eickst [H]ard|Gawd

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    I feel like 2046 would be a more realistic goal. Eight years? No way will that happen
     
  3. Nolan7689

    Nolan7689 [H]ard|Gawd

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    Won’t happen until they actually start making electric vehicles that are priced well AND appealing to the consumers. Just because it’s electric doesn’t mean it also has to be an ugly piece of shit.
     
  4. ccwilder3

    ccwilder3 n00bie

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    Perhaps in Germany but the size of our country will keep it from happening here for a very long time.
     
  5. Briguyatx

    Briguyatx Limp Gawd

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    I think I would buy an all electric VW GTI that had a 300 plus mile range and similar or better performance. I think as long as they don't actively *try* make the vehicles look stupid and instead just keep with their current styling aesthetic they would do fine.

    Electric, optionally self driving VW bus? Imagine all the fun to be had.
     
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  6. DejaWiz

    DejaWiz Oracle of Unfortunate Truths

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    The paltry range of electric vehicles makes it feel like we're regressing back to horse and buggy days, where people couldn't venture very far from home.

    Electric won't be truly viable until we can realize 500-700 miles range on 1-2 hours of charging time, imo.
     
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  7. ManofGod

    ManofGod [H]ardForum Junkie

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    Nope, I will still be driving my 2018 Civic Si at that point and with no plans to replace it.
     
  8. TekRok

    TekRok 2[H]4U

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    Good luck putting up fast charging stations or stations in general to charge. Who can charge a car living in an apartment? No one. Not only are they bullshitting, but they wont have enough time to put a decent network of charging stations together in that period of time. I am talking US only, imagine the rest of the world...
     
  9. THRESHIN

    THRESHIN 2[H]4U

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    Yeah that's nice VW. This is an educated guess at best. Remember how we were going to have nuclear powered cars and aircraft? Yeah that worked out well. Wait and see.
     
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  10. TangledThornz

    TangledThornz Limp Gawd

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  11. Reimu

    Reimu [H]ard|Gawd

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    I don't think it has to be 1-2hr to make significant penetration, but VW is thinking total obsolescence, so there's no choice but to pit BEV against ICE directly.

    Nuclear powered cars and aircraft aren't impossible, just impractical. Problem with what you just said is that battery electric vehicles are already more than prototype proof of concepts.
     
  12. Boscoh

    Boscoh [H]ard|Gawd

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    Call me a skeptic, but I have a little trouble believing this prediction coming from this particular company.
     
  13. steakman1971

    steakman1971 2[H]4U

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    No way. Maybe 50 years from now.
    I don't have a problem with electric cars - they just aren't ready for the USA yet. Not enough charging stations, too expensive, maintenance costs (batteries degrade over time), limited range, etc. If I could get a vehicle with a 300 mile range for roughly the same as a regular vehicle, I might be interested in one of our family vehicles being electric.
     
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  14. ManofGod

    ManofGod [H]ardForum Junkie

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    Seems like this is also an excuse to force people to buy new cars, even when they are not needed.
     
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  15. zehoo

    zehoo Limp Gawd

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    Unless they've solved the problem of range I don't see this happening. And then there's the fact that the electricity you use to charge the batteries will probably come from coal etc defeating the point. I used to be fully on board the idea of electric cars, and still am, but there really hasn't been any great battery technology breakthroughs recently that would allow for this. Some of the Tesla's have decent range, but they are hardly mainstream consumer friendly when it comes to pricing.
     
    Last edited: Dec 8, 2018
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  16. AtomClock

    AtomClock n00bie

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  17. Jtal

    Jtal n00bie

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    Has anyone ever seen any calculations on just how much electric power is need to replace the fuel being used in automobiles today?

    How much grid expansion will be needed to generate and distribute this energy? is it 10% growth? 30%, 70% or double?
     
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  18. BloodyIron

    BloodyIron 2[H]4U

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    Says the company that lied about their diesel efficiency ratings...
     
  19. BSmith

    BSmith [H]ard|Gawd

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    They can quit building internal combustion driven cars any time they like, as far as I am concerned. My little family of internal combustion engine driven cars will keep right on going.

    The gas pumps will be around for a very long time and prices will drop slowly as demand drops. By the time they start shutting off gas pumps I will be long dead.
     
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  20. nightanole

    nightanole [H]ard|Gawd

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    Only 5 more years, since 1995....
     
  21. 1_rick

    1_rick Limp Gawd

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  22. whiz187

    whiz187 Limp Gawd

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    I have a feeling that it will be VW that fades away. Doesn't anybody understand what Osmosis is? Any thing that is green and grows on this planet needs Carbon Dioxide. Plants and trees take it in as food and give us back Oxygen. We are very fortunate here in the US our climate is relatively clean. Now go to China, India and several other POS country's. Are you going to force them to change their ways? Lots of luck with that one.
     
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  23. 5150Joker

    5150Joker 2[H]4U

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    2026? Yeah right, maybe in Europe but not in the US or developing nations. In the US I don't see EVs taking off in a big way for at least another 15-20 years and in developing nations like India, Brazil etc it'll take even longer. Besides, states like California need to tackle their energy shortage issues first, how the hell would every citizen here be connected to a grid that's already over capacity? Good luck with that.
     
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  24. WhoMe

    WhoMe Gawd

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    I would have no problem with this--if the electric grid around here would support it. I could probably do a 220V single phase set up to charge, but I wouldn't be able to use the well pump and dryer at the same time. My service is pretty well maxed out (it's only a 150 amp service, could upgrade to 200 but would be costly, and 3 phase power? well that's 6 miles away).
     
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  25. repoman0

    repoman0 Gawd

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    I hope so, and I have an easier time believing one of the world's largest carmakers' predictions on the direction of the industry than a bunch of forum armchair warriors. I plan to replace my daily driver with an electric in about five years but will always keep my "fun" car and drive it a thousand or two miles per year.
     
  26. c3k

    c3k [H]ard|Gawd

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    My VW TDi has an 800 mile range. Even in the last mile it will give me full air conditioning, 175 hp and 300 ft lbs of torque (crank), the same as in the first mile.

    Getting another 800 miles costs me ~ $50 and 5 minutes.

    Electrics cannot compete with that.

    Edited to fix torque value.
     
  27. Brian_B

    Brian_B [H]ard|Gawd

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    How long did it take from the year leaded fuel was banned in new cars until we no longer saw leaded fuel at the pump?

    Not saying this is pro or con for EV, and it didn’t necessarily require an entire infrastructure overha, but a recent example of a shift in consumer fuel as a data point.
     
  28. Eickst

    Eickst [H]ard|Gawd

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    The only way they could do this is if they had mechanically replaceable batteries. You pull in to a 'gas station', pay for a 'refill', attendant pulls your battery, or empties your battery sludge, and puts a new battery in or refills the battery with whatever.

    They did this with some city buses in EU somewhere, I forget where. Electric buses with giant tanks of aluminum pellets in an electrolyte. The aluminum turns in to aluminum oxide, then they just pull that stuff out, refill it with fresh electrolyte and aluminum, and then send the waste off to get reprocessed. Probably not the most efficient electrical process but how else could you charge a city bus in under 5 minutes.
     
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  29. Wierdo

    Wierdo [H]ard|Gawd

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    Probably gonna be really hard for an ICE buyer to sell their car in the near future for a good price, I expect a big crash in the used ICE cars market around that time.
     
  30. THRESHIN

    THRESHIN 2[H]4U

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    Yes we all love to disagree. The problem with what you just said is that as of now the range, cost, infrastructure and lifespan (think batteries) of electric vehicles isn't something most of us are interested in. If you're not driving a late good distance, they're great. Have fun with a road trip.

    This is where the hot air comes in. Are we going to solve these problems by then? Well maybe. I personally hope so. Nobody knows that for sure. If self driving takes off as a big thing by then (another maybe) there's another large strain on the batteries and therefore less range.

    As the whole point of my previous post, wait and see.
     
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  31. Imhotep

    Imhotep Gawd

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    What VW will do is a small 3 cylinder gas engine will kick in and charge your battery while you drive on electric power. This will eliminate the charging stations completely.
     
  32. nightanole

    nightanole [H]ard|Gawd

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    Honestly we still had one pump near by in the 80's... I think it was for lawn mowers or something.
     
  33. Master_shake_

    Master_shake_ Little Bitch

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    VW should have realistic goals.

    they should predict that all VW check engine lights will be burnt out in eight years.
     
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  34. MMitch

    MMitch Limp Gawd

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    They started to install charging station around here in front of apartments. Yeah volume is low so far (1 per 50 blocks maybe with 2 ports I think) but that's a start. I guess if you contact the city they may add some around you.
    It will take time and resources.
     
  35. sfsuphysics

    sfsuphysics I don't get it

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  36. sfsuphysics

    sfsuphysics I don't get it

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    People have to realize, it's going to get to a point where it's not a matter of competing, it's a matter of regulation.

    Garbage companies would not be able to compete if people just poured some gasoline on a pile of garbage and set it go, but most people can not do that.
     
  37. c3k

    c3k [H]ard|Gawd

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    That is a spurious comparison. The key to your statement is "regulation". The resource-allocators, in their wisdom, will deign to allow the hoi polloi to use only the vehicles of which they approve.

    The market is a far better arbitrator of whether a technology is mature enough to be accepted.
     
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  38. Night_Hawk-19

    Night_Hawk-19 Gawd

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    Not till electric is on par or cheaper than gas engines.
     
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  39. velusip

    velusip [H]ard|Gawd

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    All fine and dandy, but who is going to produce all that electricity? The energy demand currently satiated by gas is one hell of a hurdle for today's meager electrical infrastructure.

    Expect the price of electricity to skyrocket. Watch incumbent power plants get bought up by old oil companies.
     
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  40. clockdogg

    clockdogg Gawd

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    Can't wait to pick up a useless Ferrari GTO for $2500 or a 956 for $500 or a C6 for $150. Better start working on my garage expansion now. ;-)
     
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