US Will Be Hit Worse by Job Automation Than Other Major Economies

[tetris42]

He worked his way there. That's pretty good experience to go off of. Just because he made it doesn't make his argument invalid. He started at the bottom and made it to a very nice level. Sounds to me like he has a more valid argument than most.

He's trying to apply anecdotal evidence to a macro-level problem. Sometimes that works, sometimes that's far off from the reality. To get a better sense of what's happening, you have to look at the data affecting MILLIONS, not just some of the people you've known in life. What's true in one region couldn't be more wrong in another. Way too many people misinterpret someone saying "there is a big problem with our system that we need to fix" as "I don't wanna work hard, waah." I am NOT defending dipshits who don't appreciate the meaning of work and understanding that you have to do what needs to get done to survive. I'm talking about problems that are kicking the stools out from under people who would otherwise be hard working and contributing more to society.

And you say he started at the bottom? Just how much at the bottom? Could his parents afford to give him doctor visits and dental care growing up? How many times did he go to bed hungry because his parents couldn't afford more food? How many times did he sleep outside or at a homeless shelter because there wasn't enough money to pay rent and there weren't people around that could take them in? This shit adds up and many are blind to just how advantages they have, so it goes to their head thinking if they can do it, anyone can, because they're in their own bubble of what's going on. Doesn't mean he didn't work hard, doesn't mean he didn't earn what he got, but it also doesn't mean there weren't a lot of things going for him that put him ahead also.

It also doesn't address basic math of what to do when you have a situation where there are more people who need work than there are jobs available. That's at the heart of all of this. All the brains and hard work of ONE PERSON won't get 100 people jobs when there are only 50 available. It's musical chairs. At some point, there needs to be other solutions. That's the whole point of where automation is taking us.

 

[lcpiper]

So you're wealthy enough to be in the top 15% of Americans, are basing your judgment of the macro-analysis for the situation of hundreds of millions of people off anecdotal examples of your success plus a few clueless millennials lacking in work ethic, then making the conclusion that there will be plenty of opportunity, despite there literally going to be more people who need jobs than there are ones available, got it.

Nope ..... I'm just the anomaly in the system. It's Matrix time right?

If it's all so fucked up and wacked, explain why my situation is what it is?

I didn't win any lottery.

No inheritance other than my father's teachings and he saw me doing nothing recommended the Army.

I wasn't "discovered", hell both jobs I was trained for in the Army have been eliminated, not needed any more, obsolete.

I didn't forecast opportunity, I recognize it cause I am sitting right here where we need people and can't find qualified candidates for the jobs.

There is more IT work out there then companies can find people for. I get calls and shit every damned day.

And I didn't blame Millennials for a lack of work ethic. I pointed out that they have an untrue view of their situation. They are so convinced that they are fucked they don't put forth real effort to try and succeed.

"What do we do now man !"

Tetris42, explain how my wife and I have achieved what we have done financially in some way that makes sense. You say we are in the top 15%, how does that happen when you haven't done anything specially great.

Have my wife and I been turning lead into gold?

Our pay isn't that great. Really, there are plenty of people that make much more then either of us do.

I have a message tetris42, listen if you want.

It's not just about what you make. It's also about what you don't spend and what you do with that. It's about who you do it with cause I sure as hell didn't do it alone. If anything, my wife is more responsible for our successes then myself. Just staying married and keeping a stable family has had a great effect on things.

But if I am not special, and my wife isn't special, except to me. And there are millions just like us, then why are there not millions with us?

And I am not falling for that anomaly bullshit.


EDIT: And I am just catching up with your last post Tetris42 and stopped here;

I'm talking about problems that are kicking the stools out from under people who would otherwise be hard working and contributing more to society.

First off, I'm not saying it's cause people are lazy. I'm saying they believe things that are not true. No hope is bad for a dude.

I am also saying that those stools that people are losing, the big ones, one of them is staying married. Making it alone in this world is damned hard and two people definitely have a better time of it than one alone. Another is staying out of jail cause that sorta puts a stop on things.

But I think you really misunderstand my message. Maybe you'll see it different after you finish this post.

 

[lcpiper]

..........And you say he started at the bottom? Just how much at the bottom? Could his parents afford to give him doctor visits and dental care growing up? How many times did he go to bed hungry because his parents couldn't afford more food? How many times did he sleep outside or at a homeless shelter because there wasn't enough money to pay rent and there weren't people around that could take them in? This shit adds up and many are blind to just how advantages they have, so it goes to their head thinking if they can do it, anyone can, because they're in their own bubble of what's going on. Doesn't mean he didn't work hard, doesn't mean he didn't earn what he got, but it also doesn't mean there weren't a lot of things going for him that put him ahead also....

I can help you out here but you have to take a trip through time, the world was different. For instance, homeless shelters didn't exist when I grew up, not like they are now.

When I grew up, divorce was a social stigma. People just didn't get divorced, not lightly. that has changed.

If a family member was in prison it was a family stain and people did not talk about the family stains. But the other day I was with my wife waiting in the emergency room at the hospital, two young ladies were talking, one's old man was in prison, the other had just got out. Today it's just common conversation you have in public with people you've never met.

Yes, I had a decent start I suppose. I sure can't fault my mom and Dad for how I was raised. It doesn't change the fact that at the age of 23 when I married my wife I didn't have anything but a low paying soldier's wage. But I wasn't alone. I wasn't unlike millions of others with the exact same opportunities and options.

What I am saying that's different is that my wife and I, mostly my wife, didn't buy into the common beliefs of the time. That you had to live in debt. We didn't believe it and we avoided it. Today young people believe they don't have a chance, that there is no opportunity, that there are no jobs. But there are jobs, there is opportunity, they do have a chance. But not if they don't believe it. Not if they make excuses and perpetuate an untruth.

Tetris42 you say there are only so many jobs to go around and even that is untrue. Go to barber's school, get your license, go down to the local barber shop, and rent a chair because barber shops don't hire barbers. Barbers self employ by renting a chair to work out of from barber shops, or at least this is a very common arrangement. There are exceptions. But people can create their own jobs. You do not have to wait for someone to hire you.

Last weekend this Mexican dude who worked for a house painting company dropped by. He doesn't work for that other guy any more. He works for someone else and he contacts people he has met directly, we've hired him and our neighbor did as well. Now he's like our own handyman, he just has several employers instead of one.

The people crossing our borders looking for work are not concerned that there is disparity of income in our country, or that there are not enough jobs. They need work and they are out there getting it. Work is out there, this guy isn't going to take a job away from a office worker or IT worker or even from an auto mechanic. But I bet he's making about the same pay as some and more then many. I bet he's doing much better than minimum wage. I don't think he's paying uncle Sam, but he won't get much Social Security either.

This is the world we have. It's helpful if people see it for what it is, and not for what it isn't.

If you had to make your own job, if you had to. I bet you would Tetris42, I bet good money you would do what you had to do.

 

[Jehuty]

I think we are having two different conversations at this point - you guys are talking about how you made it through hard work and finding opportunities - I respect that about you guys and think it's awesome. It's good to have a strong work ethic.

However, these are different times. Back then you probably didn't really need a college degree - and if you did an associates degree was probably fine to help you get started. Not to mention that associates degree likely cost under $10k unless you went to a university. Nowadays, an associates degreee doesn't get you far unless you are extremely lucky, and that degree will likely cost you $20-30k. Our culture has made it so that unless you have a bachelors or masters you better get ready to work in a call center, make coffee or just move in with your parents.

There are still opportunities like the ones you had, but it is much harder to find much less obtain. It is still out there though, and having a strong work ethic and an insane amount of hunger for success will likely bear fruit.


Having said that, what will happen when those jobs are taken by automation too? Not just factory work, but barber shops, mechanic shops - hell, baristas, grocery baggers and even taxi work could go away too due to automation. And those will just be the beginning. In the meantime, until it all gets stabilized and probably develop some kind of UBI, what can be done for those people that will likely be screwed? All the work ethic and hunger for success won't do much if there just isn't a job. Not because it's hidden, but because it could already be taken by a robot.


We are okay for now. But we have to think long term. Maybe not our generation, but the next or the one after that.

 

[Mchart]

I think we are having two different conversations at this point - you guys are talking about how you made it through hard work and finding opportunities - I respect that about you guys and think it's awesome. It's good to have a strong work ethic.

However, these are different times. Back then you probably didn't really need a college degree - and if you did an associates degree was probably fine to help you get started. Not to mention that associates degree likely cost under $10k unless you went to a university. Nowadays, an associates degreee doesn't get you far unless you are extremely lucky, and that degree will likely cost you $20-30k. Our culture has made it so that unless you have a bachelors or masters you better get ready to work in a call center, make coffee or just move in with your parents.

There are still opportunities like the ones you had, but it is much harder to find much less obtain. It is still out there though, and having a strong work ethic and an insane amount of hunger for success will likely bear fruit.


Having said that, what will happen when those jobs are taken by automation too? Not just factory work, but barber shops, mechanic shops - hell, baristas, grocery baggers and even taxi work could go away too due to automation. And those will just be the beginning. In the meantime, until it all gets stabilized and probably develop some kind of UBI, what can be done for those people that will likely be screwed? All the work ethic and hunger for success won't do much if there just isn't a job. Not because it's hidden, but because it could already be taken by a robot.


We are okay for now. But we have to think long term. Maybe not our generation, but the next or the one after that.

You still don't need a college degree or associates to make good money. You just have to be willing to do work that the public education system / US culture has brainwashed you into believing is 'bad' and/or willing to relocate where the work is. From my own personal observations kids these days would actually be better off *not* going to college (Unless it's a full 100% scholarship / GI Bill) due to the debt, and lack of jobs which would use the degree.

And BTW my response to anyone saying that the tax payer / government should be paying for your college degree is that the government already does run a program where they pay for your college degree. You just have to be wiling to commit four years of life to public service in return for four years of a free education. It's called the GI Bill. You also have the benefit of now having 4 years of decent work experience under your belt so you aren't as worthless as many of the kids these days are when they first enter the job market after getting their degree. Oh, and you'll be earning decent income and have free healthcare for those 4 years as well, and all the branches offer TA so you'll be able to at least knock out an associates that you can transfer over so you don't have to use as much of your GI Bill.

Any kid who is physically able to serve in the military and does not do so is missing out on a great opportunity, and any parent taking on debt/paying for their kid to go through college when the GI Bill exists is frankly an idiot.

That rant went a little off-topic, but it pisses me off how many kids I see complain about their college debt, and shitty first jobs when all of them were physically able to serve for at least four years to get the GI Bill and be better off for it.

 

[tetris42]

I can help you out here but you have to take a trip through time, the world was different. For instance, homeless shelters didn't exist when I grew up, not like they are now.

When I grew up, divorce was a social stigma. People just didn't get divorced, not lightly. that has changed.

If a family member was in prison it was a family stain and people did not talk about the family stains. But the other day I was with my wife waiting in the emergency room at the hospital, two young ladies were talking, one's old man was in prison, the other had just got out. Today it's just common conversation you have in public with people you've never met.

Yes, I had a decent start I suppose. I sure can't fault my mom and Dad for how I was raised. It doesn't change the fact that at the age of 23 when I married my wife I didn't have anything but a low paying soldier's wage. But I wasn't alone. I wasn't unlike millions of others with the exact same opportunities and options.

What I am saying that's different is that my wife and I, mostly my wife, didn't buy into the common beliefs of the time. That you had to live in debt. We didn't believe it and we avoided it. Today young people believe they don't have a chance, that there is no opportunity, that there are no jobs. But there are jobs, there is opportunity, they do have a chance. But not if they don't believe it. Not if they make excuses and perpetuate an untruth.

Tetris42 you say there are only so many jobs to go around and even that is untrue. Go to barber's school, get your license, go down to the local barber shop, and rent a chair because barber shops don't hire barbers. Barbers self employ by renting a chair to work out of from barber shops, or at least this is a very common arrangement. There are exceptions. But people can create their own jobs. You do not have to wait for someone to hire you.

Last weekend this Mexican dude who worked for a house painting company dropped by. He doesn't work for that other guy any more. He works for someone else and he contacts people he has met directly, we've hired him and our neighbor did as well. Now he's like our own handyman, he just has several employers instead of one.

The people crossing our borders looking for work are not concerned that there is disparity of income in our country, or that there are not enough jobs. They need work and they are out there getting it. Work is out there, this guy isn't going to take a job away from a office worker or IT worker or even from an auto mechanic. But I bet he's making about the same pay as some and more then many. I bet he's doing much better than minimum wage. I don't think he's paying uncle Sam, but he won't get much Social Security either.

This is the world we have. It's helpful if people see it for what it is, and not for what it isn't.

If you had to make your own job, if you had to. I bet you would Tetris42, I bet good money you would do what you had to do.

I think you still don't get what I'm saying, I'll try and address some of your bigger points.

-You keep saying how are you special? I don't know your whole life story, I suspect it's a culmination of many small things that add up you might not even think about. For starters, you say you had a good start. So I assume you had some sense of security growing up and were able to receive an at least halfway decent education, 3 square meals, a roof over your head, and could receive basic medical care if you needed it. That alone puts you ahead of many people. Moreover, I suspect your parents instilled some helpful values that helped guide your life. You were accepted into the military. Many people don't qualify due to many mental or physical elements. Finally, you and your wife earn far more than the average household. That's where that 15% number comes from. 85% of American households earn less than you. Plenty of them I'm sure work just as hard as have been just as frugal in life.

I read a story not long ago about a well-loved woman who learned to smile always with her mouth shut, because her family could never afford dental care. She did everything she could with brushing and flossing, but the problems ended up being too severe and it caused permanent damage to her teeth. When she eventually was able to afford enough from working on her own to finally get dental care, she was chastised from the dentist, who just assumed she was being frivolous about her teeth and never took her situation seriously. It never even occurred to her that she never had the opportunity for dental care prior; in his eyes, that was just a simple priority, being able to have access to a dentist was something he took for granted, the problems of this woman were invisible to him. I suspect problems like this were never at the forefront of your worries growing up. That's part of what makes you "special." There are countless stories like these across large portions of the population. Everyone has problems in life. Some problems are far, far more severe and debilitating in ways that make others completely trivial. Two people can work hard, make smart decisions and end up in COMPLETELY different places. The important part in my eyes, that we try and find ways to prevent people from sinking below a certain level however we can.

I've known far, FAR too many working poor in my life to the point where I can get a little edgy about this armchair rhetoric of people just needing to work hard and make smart decisions. I'm talking about people working 3 jobs, getting the cheapest apartment they possibly can, foregoing health insurance, saving every penny, never touching credit cards, living as cheaply as they possible can, with just nothing else to cut. Many advice regarding finances assume you have a certain amount to work with. I've seen some people working 85 hours a week and manage a child, and somehow managing to go to school part time to try and get out of their rut. Sometimes they make it, most of the time, they can't manage to break out of where they are, sometimes they end up dead. It's admirable to see that kind of work ethic, but jesus, it seems like a horrible standard to have for having 3 meals and a roof over their head.

-You say if I had to make my own job, I'm self employed! I've worked many shit jobs that I want to avoid ever going back to. By all metrics it seems like things have gotten even more competitive for the shit jobs since then. Except for student loans, I've NEVER gone into debt (they've since been paid off), but I was never in a situation where I had to choose between going into debt v. not going to the emergency room either. But I have had times in the past where I did not know how I was going to pay rent 2-3 months in the future and was absolutely desperate for work. I did not know where I was going to live and I feel like it was only persistence AND a lot of luck that got me through it. That cannot be overstated. That feeling is absolutely gut wrenching and is nothing I would ever wish on anyone. Having no certainty of the future and how you're going to make it can send people into an early grave. I see that as a sign things are breaking down, not something to cherish because I happened to make it out okay. I can EASILY see how somebody with just a little less grit, or more importantly just less LUCK wouldn't have made it.

-I think you still don't understand the macro level of this. Yes, jobs can be created, but that's why I keep posing the question of what opportunities are emerging from automation on a large scale, because I'm honestly not seeing them. You can apply metrics as to what jobs the market will realistically support. What works for one person doesn't work for 50 million people. More factors come into play then. In other words, we don't need 50 million barbers. There will ALWAYS be success stories of people who make it and work hard. But say that number gets dropped in half, you don't understand the significance of that? Some people will give up on the first hint of trouble. That's not who I'm talking about. I'm talking about the people who live hand to mouth, working multiple jobs, and see food prices go up 5%. The more extreme the shift, the more people are affected and get marginalized. Again, it's a musical chairs situation. If you honestly believe there will always be enough jobs out there for EVERYONE who wants and needs them, then I can't really argue with you, because that's a faith based arguments. I'm looking at it more like X jobs are being displaced from Y field, there are only Z jobs available in other fields and Z < X, where Z will continue to decrease as time goes on. New jobs will add to Z, but at a rate much lower than Z is decreasing, so the overall effect continues to be Z < X and isn't going to get better without some major new variable. Again, think in math terms, not what one individual person can do. This is way bigger than that.

 

[alxlwson]

SJW says it's never your own fault for being a failure in life. It is always everyone else's fault, and the bad people around. SJW says there are no lessons to be learned from micro, because macro >*. Mommy this, daddy that, bad babysitter, boohoo. Never saw my parents as a kid. Dad at sea, mom in nursing school and working full time to feed me and my brother.
Helen Keller surpassed insurmountable odds. A blind mute learned to talk, and became a productive member of society. My younger sister has CP and the mental abilities of a 12yo(she's 23) She has a job bussing tables. She left one day to walk up to the store, and applied to the job on her own. She got online to find out how to do it. She said it was time to earn her own money. There are no excuses. Excuses are for the lazy and unwilling.

 

[tetris42]

SJW says it's never your own fault for being a failure in life. It is always everyone else's fault, and the bad people around. SJW says there are no lessons to be learned from micro, because macro >*. Mommy this, daddy that, bad babysitter, boohoo. Never saw my parents as a kid. Dad at sea, mom in nursing school and working full time to feed me and my brother.
Helen Keller surpassed insurmountable odds. A blind mute learned to talk, and became a productive member of society. My younger sister has CP and the mental abilities of a 12yo(she's 23) She has a job bussing tables. She left one day to walk up to the store, and applied to the job on her own. She got online to find out how to do it. She said it was time to earn her own money. There are no excuses. Excuses are for the lazy and unwilling.

I think SJW's are dipshits as much as the next person. Of course things can be your own fault. For example, if you can't make rent because you spent it all gambling or on booze, you're a fucking moron. Still, it sounds like you're on the other extreme, where you're blind to actual externalities that will lead to people dying by the millions over a long enough time span. If you still don't understand the difference of the variables between an individual being able to make it v. an entire populace of millions, you probably never will.

 

[mesyn191]

You don't know what you're talking about.

Yes I do.
If you don't want to read the article here it is in a nutshell:

Have a look at the career websites. So many well paying trades jobs. Most of the people in my industrial maintenance classes had the schooling SPONSORED AND PREPAID, making close to $30/hr with no experience while they were still attending.

Hahahaha man you got no critical thinking skills at all. You think eyeballing a career website is proof of anything? And most of those SPONSORED AND PREPAID courses are crap and leave the student stuck in dead end jobs that don't pay $30/hr. And if they try to leave the job that "helped" them get the crappy BS technical degree before their contract term is up? Guess what, they get stuck with all the school debt. And penalties on top of that.

That is why most of those vocational schools don't meet federal guidelines for debt-to-earnings ratios. Many of them are in fact little more than glorified scam schools like ITT Tech.

I make nearly six figs a year with a lowly certificate. I work hard, and I win hard.

Hahaha yeah and I'm the king of England. Even if you're aren't full of it you'd be a outlier to say the least. Most people in trades make shit money for tough work that wrecks their bodies before they're 50. You'll see the few high end income jobs get pointed out but most won't get those and there'll be even less of those jobs in the future than there are now.

The military pays quite well as a whole. My dad retired from the Navy after 20yrs enlisted active duty. His retirement pays the mortgage on their house, plus plenty extra.

Actually they really don't. Most people starting out only get like $300-400 a week which is McWage money which you can't live on in most places. If you get high rank or yes work in it for 20yr or more yes you can get OK to good money but that isn't realistic to expect most people to do nor is possible either.

 

[mesyn191]

Hmm ... I think China would be hit harder than anybody else, given that they are the world's manufacturer of almost everything,

The standard of living there is much lower than the US so they've got less ways to fall down the poverty ladder than many Americans do.

 

[alxlwson]

Yes I do.
If you don't want to read the article here it is in a nutshell:

Hahahaha man you got no critical thinking skills at all. You think eyeballing a career website is proof of anything? And most of those SPONSORED AND PREPAID courses are crap and leave the student stuck in dead end jobs that don't pay $30/hr. And if they try to leave the job that "helped" them get the crappy BS technical degree before their contract term is up? Guess what, they get stuck with all the school debt. And penalties on top of that.

That is why most of those vocational schools don't meet federal guidelines for debt-to-earnings ratios. Many of them are in fact little more than glorified scam schools like ITT Tech.


Hahaha yeah and I'm the king of England. Even if you're aren't full of it you'd be a outlier to say the least. Most people in trades make shit money for tough work that wrecks their bodies before they're 50. You'll see the few high end income jobs get pointed out but most won't get those and there'll be even less of those jobs in the future than there are now.


Actually they really don't. Most people starting out only get like $300-400 a week which is McWage money which you can't live on in most places. If you get high rank or yes work in it for 20yr or more yes you can get OK to good money but that isn't realistic to expect most people to do nor is possible either. We never needed or wanted for anything growing up, and we got to see the world around.

You're a lazy pessimist. That's a fact. It is still also a fact that you still don't know what you're talking about.

 

[Deleted member 222586]

I want to, but I'm not buying a console and as far as I know it's not coming out for the PC.

The game alone is worth a PS4. Think of it as a The Witcher 3 but with incredibly fun combat (instead of the shit that TW3 has).

 

[mesyn191]

I am simply providing some anecdotal background experience about how one of my experiences with the healthcare system

Yes the rest of your post was talking about that but I didn't quote that part for a reason. I quoted the 1 sentence that stuck out to me and that I wanted to address for a reason.

No one is seriously talking about healthcare robots in actual IRL widespread use over the next 10-20yr. The most you might see is some automated low skill high repetition functions like blood draws or blood pressure sensing machines. Which won't do much of anything to eliminate jobs in healthcare.

 

[mesyn191]

You're a lazy pessimist. That's a fact. It is still also a fact that you still don't know what you're talking about.

WTH are you like 2yr old or something?

I'm pointing out real problems and giving you the evidence and all you can do is toss weak insults?

If you're not interested in changing your mind on this subject then OK fine but then why even bother posting or reading the forums?

 

[MrTryfe]

SJW says it's never your own fault for being a failure in life. It is always everyone else's fault, and the bad people around. SJW says there are no lessons to be learned from micro, because macro >*. Mommy this, daddy that, bad babysitter, boohoo. Never saw my parents as a kid. Dad at sea, mom in nursing school and working full time to feed me and my brother.
Helen Keller surpassed insurmountable odds. A blind mute learned to talk, and became a productive member of society. My younger sister has CP and the mental abilities of a 12yo(she's 23) She has a job bussing tables. She left one day to walk up to the store, and applied to the job on her own. She got online to find out how to do it. She said it was time to earn her own money. There are no excuses. Excuses are for the lazy and unwilling.

Its ironic that SJWs are called out for being special snowflakes, yet the other side could easily be accused of being the same damn thing. It's just two sides to the same rhetorical coin. These few anecdotal pieces simply aren't representative of the population as a whole.

There are some insightful points being made in regards to looking at socioeconomic issues from a macro level, and you are simply responding with tired "SJW this, spoiled millennial that" memes. Come on dude.

I still don't get how it's as easy as saying that millennials are a lazy bunch, when more than ever, a large percentage of the population is working shitty jobs. If we really want to go towards the anecdotal route, I know several entry level IT workers who spend nearly 50% of their income on rent, here in LA. There was a Guardian article a while back that took a look at wages for young adults 30 years ago vs now, and they found that young adults used to make more than the average back then, whereas they're earning 20% below average these days. Pops might have been able to comfortably afford a mortgage working his USPS job in the 70s, but good luck doing that today.

Today's generation might have an air of self importance about them, and generally shitty societal views, but I can hardly call them lazy or entitled.

 

[lcpiper]

I think you still don't get what I'm saying..............

Wow, I'm not reading that, no way.

All the charts all the learning, all your ideas.

Millions of people who were sold on a false concept and it is a false concept. No one is born into debt, they enter into it. In school they taught me to balance a check book, later on they taught kids how to use credit cards. The world has raised entire generations that their credit score is important and they have to work to build their credit.

Slaves raised to believe what is not true.

God man, at least pause a moment and stop thinking of why I can't be right, and at least question what you believe.

People who were born into this thinking just accept it, it's too big to question.

 

[lcpiper]

I think we are having two different conversations at this point - you guys are talking about how you made it through hard work and finding opportunities - I respect that about you guys and think it's awesome. It's good to have a strong work ethic...............

But it wasn't really hard work. I mean I had some scary moments and long uncomfortable nasty times in the Army and even after when I went to Iraq, but my wife and I didn't suffer hardship. We just were diligent with saving and investing and tried not to waste too much. I'm a gamer, imagine how much I sunk into video cards and water cooling and the software and micro-transactions in the .... ummm .... 33 years since I bought my first computer in 1983, an Atari 1200XL.

My wife and I weren't working two jobs ..... even now I am at work on [H], I can't game here so it's gaming at home, the [H] at work.

The difference is that we avoided debt. Not that we worked hard.

 

[tetris42]

Wow, I'm not reading that, no way.

Cool, I was trying to seriously address your points. You're living up to exactly the intellectual rigor I suspected you were giving the situation.

 

[lcpiper]

Trade schools are just as much of a joke as college degrees when it comes to finding a job in the US right now. And still pretty damn expensive too. The military pays crap and even the benefits are being cut, unless of course you end up in combat and then yeah its pretty good....but then you're in combat which is horrible unless you get lucky. Apprenticeships are also virtually a thing of the past too in the US. They'll soon be almost entirely gone. Blue Collar semi skilled jobs that don't require a degree are becoming quite scarce and have been for some time.


Are you kidding me? Virtually everyone who works for a living in the US is poorer than they were 10yr ago. That is why Millenials are so much poorer than their parents were at their age and why the total wealth for the Boomers has gone down too.


THEY ARE. FAR TOO MUCH. There are no shortage of STEM grads and hasn't been since at least the mid 2000's. There are however a shortage of STEM jobs and there has been a ugly race to the bottom in STEM job wages over the last 5yr or so. STEM degrees/jobs are not a viable mass solution. They aren't even a solution for quite a few highly intelligent and skilled people either.

I'm not so sure I agree with this. You say Military benefits are being cut, I have not lost a single benefit I know of yet. It makes me wonder how accurate your other claims are. My wife went to a trade school to be a barber, she got a Pell grant that paid for half of it. Last I checked you still need the school to get the license and the license to work, even on Federal lands you have to be licensed somewhere. So I am thinking this is also an incorrect claim. My Son-in-Law was an intern with Raytheon before he completed school at UofA as an optical engineer. He has done very well, that was only about 10 years ago.

I won't argue that the investment picture has been very sketchy for the last decade but we have never ever had solid continuous uninterrupted prosperity, that doesn't exist. Everything is a cycle and if history is any judge we are do for a little of our own again. I can only expect that any upturn can't happen without improvement across the board including jobs etc.

These things don't happen without cause, so if things change in the right way, then we should see the benefits. This article predicts doom because of our current state and yet that state can change and this predicted outcome can become something else. That is if this prediction is well founded to begin with.

 

[lcpiper]

Cool, I was trying to seriously address your points. You're living up to exactly the intellectual rigor I suspected you were giving the situation.

Ahh yes, not only am I an anomaly in the system, I'm an ignorant one ... and on the thirteenth day god shown his light on the chosen one and raised him above all others and said "your life will be good".

Don't question yourself at all OK, you are too smart and have seen too much, there is nothing for you to learn here at all.

 

[tetris42]

Ahh yes, not only am I an anomaly in the system, I'm an ignorant one

You gave an argument, I gave a counter-argument. You refuse to read the counter-argument and restate your original argument, so yes, I'd say that sounds like ignorance.

I'd be happy for someone to challenge my assumptions in a way that addressed the evidence, especially since I think it's going in a bad direction. But if you just want to give rhetoric, especially when I AGREE with many of the values you're espousing, but am trying to communicate the situation is more complex that what your responses suggest your understanding of it is, well what can I say, enjoy.

 

[lcpiper]

Because your income doubled + financially made out everyone should?

Clear cut logical fallacy dude.

And national stats are worth more than any 1 individual's BS just so "made it" anecdote.

So all our young people should just give the fuck up right, the stats are against them?

My oldest talks like you, she knows everything, and nothing.

She's a wonder, really.

Look man, there are jobs, there are many many jobs. But they are not going to give them to people who are not at least remotely qualified to perform. My company is currently listing about 20 positions and we have fewer than 100 employees, I think that means we are growing.

 

[Jehuty]

But it wasn't really hard work. I mean I had some scary moments and long uncomfortable nasty times in the Army and even after when I went to Iraq, but my wife and I didn't suffer hardship. We just were diligent with saving and investing and tried not to waste too much. I'm a gamer, imagine how much I sunk into video cards and water cooling and the software and micro-transactions in the .... ummm .... 33 years since I bought my first computer in 1983, an Atari 1200XL.

My wife and I weren't working two jobs ..... even now I am at work on [H], I can't game here so it's gaming at home, the [H] at work.

The difference is that we avoided debt. Not that we worked hard.

Today's economy is much different than how it was in your time though. Right now you're able to handle the brunt of things because you've been responsible and probably had an easier way (not that you had it easy, but I'm comparing the economic climates) of managing to get in a good enough position to start with. Depending on where you live saving and investing could be pretty hard to do. I think we're diverging from the topic at hand though.


What if you had a job and found out next year your job is going away thanks to automation? What if your wife did not have an opportunity to be a barber because robots can cut people's hair with the end result rivaling that of a highly paid professional? That's just one job of many and we're heading in that direction. The fear is that robots could end up hurting the American workforce eventually, and it would be a huge blow. Imagine a world where mechanics, carpenters, servers (food industry), factories (cars, furniture assembly, etc) are all handled by automated robots. Would the solution be to just study and work hard? Study what? IT? Medicine? Business administration? Those markets are starting to become saturated - IT especially, and outsourcing doesn't help things a bit. I think it's important that rather than criticize each other, we all discuss about possible solutions and bring that up our representatives and senators. I don't want to stifle innovation - I want technology to move forward and I want it to benefit humanity to make our lives more comfortable. I think the government can step in and at least help ease the transition, while assisting folks that will inevitably be screwed over by it. Maybe help with putting caps in education so you don't get out of college and end up owing as much as it takes to buy a house outright. It doesn't have to be a handout - but the government is supposed to be there for the people, no? The government was instrumental in The Great Depression, and it can be once again for what's looming ahead. It doesn't have to be a huge, sudden thing.

It can be done in small steps. But we have to take those steps, the sooner the better.

 

[Frobozz]

*queue Gerry Rafferty

"It's the Dave Ramsey show! Where debt is dumb, cash is king, and the paid-off home mortgage has taken the place of the BMW as the status symbol of choice."

 

[lcpiper]

Today's economy is much different than how it was in your time though. Right now you're able to handle the brunt of things because you've been responsible and probably had an easier way (not that you had it easy, but I'm comparing the economic climates) of managing to get in a good enough position to start with. Depending on where you live saving and investing could be pretty hard to do. I think we're diverging from the topic at hand though.


What if you had a job and found out next year your job is going away thanks to automation? What if your wife did not have an opportunity to be a barber because robots can cut people's hair with the end result rivaling that of a highly paid professional? That's just one job of many and we're heading in that direction. The fear is that robots could end up hurting the American workforce eventually, and it would be a huge blow. Imagine a world where mechanics, carpenters, servers (food industry), factories (cars, furniture assembly, etc) are all handled by automated robots. Would the solution be to just study and work hard? Study what? IT? Medicine? Business administration? Those markets are starting to become saturated - IT especially, and outsourcing doesn't help things a bit. I think it's important that rather than criticize each other, we all discuss about possible solutions and bring that up our representatives and senators. I don't want to stifle innovation - I want technology to move forward and I want it to benefit humanity to make our lives more comfortable. I think the government can step in and at least help ease the transition, while assisting folks that will inevitably be screwed over by it. Maybe help with putting caps in education so you don't get out of college and end up owing as much as it takes to buy a house outright. It doesn't have to be a handout - but the government is supposed to be there for the people, no? The government was instrumental in The Great Depression, and it can be once again for what's looming ahead. It doesn't have to be a huge, sudden thing.

It can be done in small steps. But we have to take those steps, the sooner the better.

Tetris42 says jobs are drying up, Jehuty, you are saying IT is getting saturated. I am in IT, we can not find people, we need people. They either don't want to come here or they simply are not qualified, or there just are more jobs than people. Take your pick, I don't see any other options.

We have had an empty seat here for a SQL DBA that knows some virtualization and his way around a Windows Enterprise environment, it's been almost six months.

We just filled a position for an experienced Sysad with an Air Force retiree, he doesn't actually have the experienced we'd want but he has training and he's proven capable and trainable and he has a security clearance so we'll teach him the rest and he'll learn as he goes along.

Now maybe this is an aberration, every time the government cuts back on funding like they did a few years ago, things get tight and I know they were not offering good pay so maybe the jobs are simply not at all attractive enough. But I've spent time out of work and if there are not enough jobs and this is all that's out there someone will take them and hope for better days.

That being said, I can see the day when many IT jobs can be automated as well or new technology will actually eclipse old methods and structures and it could cost jobs. But I bet I can go to any major company's job site and find all kinds of jobs, IT and otherwise being listed. I think someone's cooking the books. But you asked a question, what if?

What if?

No actually no one has to do anything at all about it. In the end, it will work itself out one way or another. People might starve and if that's the case then that's how it will go. Or maybe we'll find a more amenable solution and new markets will drive new work sectors.

But things will change, and change is sometimes violent, and people usually suffer when things get violent. Maybe our future will be some sort of post-apocalyptic corporations run the world Judge Dread sort of reality where some people are "in" and the rest are just "out". If so, scratch the ground a plant and hunt and trade and survive, it's not that horrible, we've done it before.

 

[Jehuty]

Tetris42 says jobs are drying up, Jehuty, you are saying IT is getting saturated. I am in IT, we can not find people, we need people. They either don't want to come here or they simply are not qualified, or there just are more jobs than people. Take your pick, I don't see any other options.

We have had an empty seat here for a SQL DBA that knows some virtualization and his way around a Windows Enterprise environment, it's been almost six months.

We just filled a position for an experienced Sysad with an Air Force retiree, he doesn't actually have the experienced we'd want but he has training and he's proven capable and trainable and he has a security clearance so we'll teach him the rest and he'll learn as he goes along.

Now maybe this is an aberration, every time the government cuts back on funding like they did a few years ago, things get tight and I know they were not offering good pay so maybe the jobs are simply not at all attractive enough. But I've spent time out of work and if there are not enough jobs and this is all that's out there someone will take them and hope for better days.

That being said, I can see the day when many IT jobs can be automated as well or new technology will actually eclipse old methods and structures and it could cost jobs. But I bet I can go to any major company's job site and find all kinds of jobs, IT and otherwise being listed. I think someone's cooking the books. But you asked a question, what if?

What if?

No actually no one has to do anything at all about it. In the end, it will work itself out one way or another. People might starve and if that's the case then that's how it will go. Or maybe we'll find a more amenable solution and new markets will drive new work sectors.

But things will change, and change is sometimes violent, and people usually suffer when things get violent. Maybe our future will be some sort of post-apocalyptic corporations run the world Judge Dread sort of reality where some people are "in" and the rest are just "out". If so, scratch the ground a plant and hunt and trade and survive, it's not that horrible, we've done it before.

From the sounds of it, it seems that your job site requires very specific skills, no? And a security clearance? I don't know where you live, so location may be a factor too.

I can see what you're saying, but I think you're putting too much faith in "it will work itself out one way or another". One of the bigger factors in us getting out of The Great Depression and The Great Recession (though not 100% out yet) is thanks to government intervention. If we had let the market have free reign we'd have been screwed. The market is fickle as can be; mere speculation decides the health of the market. I mean, it puts meerkats to shame with how quick they peace out the moment they think something bad will happen lol. I don't think you or me have to do anything about it - but someone does. And it's been the government's role to do so for a long time.

 

[Mchart]

Yes I do.
If you don't want to read the article here it is in a nutshell:

Hahahaha man you got no critical thinking skills at all. You think eyeballing a career website is proof of anything? And most of those SPONSORED AND PREPAID courses are crap and leave the student stuck in dead end jobs that don't pay $30/hr. And if they try to leave the job that "helped" them get the crappy BS technical degree before their contract term is up? Guess what, they get stuck with all the school debt. And penalties on top of that.

That is why most of those vocational schools don't meet federal guidelines for debt-to-earnings ratios. Many of them are in fact little more than glorified scam schools like ITT Tech.


Hahaha yeah and I'm the king of England. Even if you're aren't full of it you'd be a outlier to say the least. Most people in trades make shit money for tough work that wrecks their bodies before they're 50. You'll see the few high end income jobs get pointed out but most won't get those and there'll be even less of those jobs in the future than there are now.


Actually they really don't. Most people starting out only get like $300-400 a week which is McWage money which you can't live on in most places. If you get high rank or yes work in it for 20yr or more yes you can get OK to good money but that isn't realistic to expect most people to do nor is possible either.

You have absolutely no idea what you are talking about when it comes to your last statement. Enlisted in the military earn quite well these days considering you don't need to have any education beyond high school. I won't totally fault you, because the average civilian looks at the military pay scale and assumes that is all the money people in the military make.

But you earn far more in the military beyond just taxable base pay. BAH, BAS, COLA, Uniform allowance, free healthcare (Itself worth quite a bit), free TA, etc.. When I was an E-6 I was earning $70k a year as my BAH/COLA in Hawaii was so much, but I also played it smart and lived in fairly cheap housing so I was banking almost $2k of that $3k every month. Over $40k of that was not considered taxable income.

I could continue on, but needless to say your last point is bullshit, beyond the fact that you only need to serve 4 years to get access to the GI Bill which itself is an outstanding benefit. Post 9/11 pays for a full 36months w/ full E-5 w/ dependent housing allowance where the school is.

Never mind the fact that when I retire in a few years i'll be getting 70% of a sizeable amount of base pay of a decent rank and free healthcare for the rest of my life.

Join before 2018 kids.. If you don't you'll be forced into a shittier retirement option.

With how far off you are on just this piece of knowledge it makes me wonder how clueless you are with your other points. Again - Kids are being brainwashed these days into thinking they need a College education to earn decent money, but this is so far from the truth that these kids are just getting bent over and taking on debt they need not have taken on if they would have just researched a little and taken a different route.

 

[travisty]

Given that Piketty is a graduate of Ecole Normale Superieure (ENS) in France, I expected better from, and of, him.
(There's a reason why the top Wall Street firms have a tendency of getting their top math guys/quants from Ecole graduates from France, as opposed to other countries, including Asian ones).

As for the Donald, looks like his economic plan is focusing on the military and infrastructure, from what little I can tell (not too shabby an idea, given that it's right out of FDR's playbook).

I guess you missed my rebuttal to the 'debunking'

https://hardforum.com/threads/us-wi...ther-major-economies.1928232/#post-1042904267

As for "right out of FDR's playbook" don't say too much. Military was a must - WW2 - and infrastructure i'd agree with. Trump is totally against all the progressive policies of FDR, like:

• Agricultural Adjustment Act
• Civil Works Administration
• Civilian Conservation Corps
• Federal Emergency Relief Act
• Glass-Steagall Act
• National Industrial Recovery Act
• National Youth Administration
• Public Works Administration
• Rural Electrification Administration
• Securities and Exchange Commission
• Social Security Act
• Tennessee Valley Authority
• Wagner Act
• Works Progress Administration

Trump would never even consider even one.

TBH, to say Trump is anything like FDR is an insult to our 32nd president (and really the office itself).

 

[tungt88]

I guess you missed my rebuttal to the 'debunking'

https://hardforum.com/threads/us-wi...ther-major-economies.1928232/#post-1042904267

As for "right out of FDR's playbook" don't say too much. Military was a must - WW2 - and infrastructure i'd agree with. Trump is totally against all the progressive policies of FDR, like:

• Agricultural Adjustment Act
• Civil Works Administration
• Civilian Conservation Corps
• Federal Emergency Relief Act
• Glass-Steagall Act
• National Industrial Recovery Act
• National Youth Administration
• Public Works Administration
• Rural Electrification Administration
• Securities and Exchange Commission
• Social Security Act
• Tennessee Valley Authority
• Wagner Act
• Works Progress Administration

Trump would never even consider even one.

TBH, to say Trump is anything like FDR is an insult to our 32nd president (and really the office itself).

I read your rebuttal, but I still stand that Piketty should've done a better job with expressing his viewpoints via his book (after all, he is an ENS graduate [one of the more prominent ones, actually], and I have met and talked with Ecole graduates before).

And yes, Trump pulled those things (military/infrastructure) out of FDR's playbook. That he didn't take the rest of the playbook is a decision by him alone. (I'm absolutely sure that if he saw some advantage in doing so, he would).

The thing "ivory tower" folks consistently fail to understand about Trump is that he, in the end, is merely an opportunist (whose politics, prior to entering the Presidential race, were best described as "opportunistic and benefiting his business", more than anything else). Whether an opportunist on the American throne is the best thing for America (or not) is an entirely different subject, but there is no need to make him a "bogeyman", just like there was no need to make Hillary a "bogeywoman". Trump was clever enough to tap into the tremendous resentment against the Establishment of both right and left in DC, and won based on that anti-Establishment platform; something that Hillary's campaign neglected (to Bill Clinton's great dismay).

If you want an "insult" to the presidency (and all that the Constitution purportedly stands for), I suggest Andrew Jackson, who played his role in the elimination of many a Native American (with all sorts of means) from American social/political/economic life, was against the Second Bank of the United States, helped to set a tradition/institute the "spoils system" ... and then, there are those who are merely incompetent (of which it is far too early to put Trump into). And throughout the history of the presidency, there were individuals who became President, who had even less credentials, or credibility, than Trump.

It's also of note that none of those "progressive" policies you cited were able to pull America out of the Depression (and the recession that followed) -- it was the massive industrial needs of the Second World War that did that.
In a fun side note, Roosevelt & Co. were panicking over a certain annoying upstart named Huey Long of Louisiana, whose campaign slogan was "Every Man A King", and threatened to upstage, and then unseat Roosevelt (simply by taking enough votes from FDR, even if Long wasn't going to win).
Long, in modern terms, might be compared to a Sanders/Trump, to some degree.

 

[lcpiper]

From the sounds of it, it seems that your job site requires very specific skills, no? And a security clearance? I don't know where you live, so location may be a factor too.

I can see what you're saying, but I think you're putting too much faith in "it will work itself out one way or another". One of the bigger factors in us getting out of The Great Depression and The Great Recession (though not 100% out yet) is thanks to government intervention. If we had let the market have free reign we'd have been screwed. The market is fickle as can be; mere speculation decides the health of the market. I mean, it puts meerkats to shame with how quick they peace out the moment they think something bad will happen lol. I don't think you or me have to do anything about it - but someone does. And it's been the government's role to do so for a long time.

It's not faith ..... it's acceptance. It's the knowledge that I can only do so much and it will be enough, or it won't. Call it fatalism if you must put a name to it, I'm fine with that.

My job is a normal Sysad Job, I manage servers, some virtualization, and I am the primary guy for our storage systems, NAS and SAN. Yes, there is a TS clearance involved, and it is an Army contract so I must have at least Security+. I like to keep my bases covered so I have A+ and Net+, and CASP. They are all useless but the Army insists and so we must play along. But you know, we did just mostly finish up with 15 years of war and turnover in the military is higher in times of conflict so I am thinking security clearances are not as uncommon anymore. Getting a clearance isn't so hard unless you screwed yourself over and have a criminal record, beat you Mom or worse, beat your dog.

I agree that the market is fickle, not so sure I credit the government with doing so many positive things though. I sure see them screwing up here almost daily. But yes, investors will bale like crazy and you don't even have the threaten them with a loss, just tell them their money won't make anything for a quarter and the panic will ensue. That's exactly what happened to NVidia in about 2007 or so, go look, can't miss the cliff that was the 66% drop in share price in one day. People sold, people lost money, I had just bought $10,000 worth myself and was rather dismayed, so I waited a couple days and then bought another $10,000 worth. NVidia was good for it, they came back up, and by cost averaging my share price they didn't even have to recover fully for me to make my target.

 

[travisty]

I read your rebuttal, but I still stand that Piketty should've done a better job with expressing his viewpoints via his book (after all, he is an ENS graduate [one of the more prominent ones, actually], and I have met and talked with Ecole graduates before).

And yes, Trump pulled those things (military/infrastructure) out of FDR's playbook. That he didn't take the rest of the playbook is a decision by him alone. (I'm absolutely sure that if he saw some advantage in doing so, he would).

The thing "ivory tower" folks consistently fail to understand about Trump is that he, in the end, is merely an opportunist (whose politics, prior to entering the Presidential race, were best described as "opportunistic and benefiting his business", more than anything else). Whether an opportunist on the American throne is the best thing for America (or not) is an entirely different subject, but there is no need to make him a "bogeyman", just like there was no need to make Hillary a "bogeywoman". Trump was clever enough to tap into the tremendous resentment against the Establishment of both right and left in DC, and won based on that anti-Establishment platform; something that Hillary's campaign neglected (to Bill Clinton's great dismay).

If you want an "insult" to the presidency (and all that the Constitution purportedly stands for), I suggest Andrew Jackson, who played his role in the elimination of many a Native American (with all sorts of means) from American social/political/economic life, was against the Second Bank of the United States, helped to set a tradition/institute the "spoils system" ... and then, there are those who are merely incompetent (of which it is far too early to put Trump into). And throughout the history of the presidency, there were individuals who became President, who had even less credentials, or credibility, than Trump.

It's also of note that none of those "progressive" policies you cited were able to pull America out of the Depression (and the recession that followed) -- it was the massive industrial needs of the Second World War that did that.
In a fun side note, Roosevelt & Co. were panicking over a certain annoying upstart named Huey Long of Louisiana, whose campaign slogan was "Every Man A King", and threatened to upstage, and then unseat Roosevelt (simply by taking enough votes from FDR, even if Long wasn't going to win).
Long, in modern terms, might be compared to a Sanders/Trump, to some degree.

I'd rather not continue with current politics as that will go no where ( i will continue to abhor trump). As for insults we could go over whichever president, sure Jackson was no saint and I can't think of anything he did i agree with.

It's true that the progressive policies didn't bring the US out of the great depression (note: i never said they did). Government spending brought the great depression to an end initially infrastructure then to military. What those progressive programs I listed did do were create safety nets for people - to make sure no one was left destitute and basically dead - and to help people find work. Progressive programs are all about empowering an individual person in need.

The roaring '50, 60's and 70's came after where if someone worked harder they would advance. Why? As Piketty covers, it's because everyone was basically on a level playing field. Massive inflation and the stock market crash caused the rich to lose their wealth. The workers/unemployed had little money to lose. Everyone had the same amount of wealth to start with. This was the exceptional period in time which is no longer the case. Wealth - and this is where his hypothesis of r > g comes from - has now, really has always, centered itself around the wealthy individuals and institutions. The wealthy 1% of the US own 38% of all wealth and the bottom 90% hold 73% of the debt. I do not buy fully into the idea that only r > g is responsible as Piketty had argued but the transformation from the level playing field to current (and historical) wealth disparities lends credibility to his arguments.

It's important for people to understand what's happened over the last half-century so they can intelligently argue for/against policies. Really what Piketty's book was about was presenting wealth and income through the last three hundred years. His opinions can be considered, ignored, or refuted. In the end the reader can come to their own conclusions.