US Will Be Hit Worse by Job Automation Than Other Major Economies

[mesyn191]

Doctors no longer run our hospitals, lawyers and bankers do. And no one ever accused either of these groups of possessing compassion.

Lawyers and bankers are indeed crap at running hospitals but so are the doctors unfortunately.

The docs used to run nearly every hospital in the US decades ago and now very few do. Its because the skills necessary to be a doc are very different from those necessary to run a business (which is what a hospital is) and the docs didn't really appreciate that fact too well and ended up driving most of the hospitals into near bankruptcy back in the 80's and 90's. These days they're virtually all ran by some mega healthcare conglomerate of sorts. Even the Cathloic/religious ones.

 

[mesyn191]

On the other hand, there are all these jobs that people don't want to take because they feel it's beneath them.

LOL complete horseshit. Those jobs don't exist because they pay nothing or close to it. The only way to survive on them would be to drastically lower the standard of living for most Americans to what you see in most 3rd World shitholes. Why in the hell would any one want that exactly? Especially when a alternative like a UBI would prevent that from being a issue at all?

Universal Basic Income is great in theory, but much harder to apply in reality. Canada seems to have a major initiative on this, and I think the US should be watching very carefully to see how it develops. .

Small scale UBI's have been done before with success in Canada as well as other parts of the world. There is no practical reason why it can't be done. The problem is the politicians caving to the interests of the rich and connected either messing it up or not implementing in period.

 

[Todd Walter]

You clearly have not worked in the medical field. Nurse's Physical Therapist Ect need & have compassion.

And you're omniscient and know my work history? I can play that game too. You clearly are a kid (mentally) without a breadth of experience to rely on. I did field repair for Emerg & DI at a busy hospital. It's all professional detachment all the way.

 

[mesyn191]

There are always other options where you can learn skills that can help get a job such as trade school, military, apprenticeship, etc...

Trade schools are just as much of a joke as college degrees when it comes to finding a job in the US right now. And still pretty damn expensive too. The military pays crap and even the benefits are being cut, unless of course you end up in combat and then yeah its pretty good....but then you're in combat which is horrible unless you get lucky. Apprenticeships are also virtually a thing of the past too in the US. They'll soon be almost entirely gone. Blue Collar semi skilled jobs that don't require a degree are becoming quite scarce and have been for some time.

Most people in the country do not have a degree and are doing fine

Are you kidding me? Virtually everyone who works for a living in the US is poorer than they were 10yr ago. That is why Millenials are so much poorer than their parents were at their age and why the total wealth for the Boomers has gone down too.

The STEM fields are something I feel should be promoted more.

THEY ARE. FAR TOO MUCH. There are no shortage of STEM grads and hasn't been since at least the mid 2000's. There are however a shortage of STEM jobs and there has been a ugly race to the bottom in STEM job wages over the last 5yr or so. STEM degrees/jobs are not a viable mass solution. They aren't even a solution for quite a few highly intelligent and skilled people either.

 

[Ducman69]

Small scale UBI's have been done before with success in Canada as well as other parts of the world. There is no practical reason why it can't be done. The problem is the politicians caving to the interests of the rich and connected either messing it up or not implementing in period.

Name the "other parts of the world". I bet you they all have something in common, huh.

There's a big difference between universal basic income in Venezuela and the same applied in Sweden. You have to have an altruistic people motivated by a culture of productivity and greater good for it to work, and it can be undermined if you have open borders to outsiders that don't subscribe to that work ethic and are only coming for the handouts.

Would UBI be a huge success with the Amish? Absolutely. But not implemented in a large multi-cultural swiss cheese border country like the United States, as it would just reward sloth and import poverty and slums as immigrants from around the world would flock to the handouts. We see this problem with the few homeless we have already, flocking to the cities that offer handouts until they are overrun and have to sour the milk and often pickup and bus them to other towns (take ultra liberal San Francisco for example that ran into that problem, and now has police harassing homeless to make them uncomfortable and has bussed over 10K homeless out of the city with one-way tickets and a cash payoff to GTFO.

So the biggest danger to UBI is how do you keep people motivated to contribute to society, and not become dependent on the state and resorting to crime and laziness, as is the case in the projects. After all, the multi-generation welfare queens and projects are an example of what happens with basic income given to unmotivated people.

 

[Retronym]

Are you kidding me? Virtually everyone who works for a living in the US is poorer than they were 10yr ago. That is why Millenials are so much poorer than their parents were at their age and why the total wealth for the Boomers has gone down too.

10 years ago I lived with my parents. I now have six figures of home equity, ditto retirement account, and my salary has doubled.
Save me the bullshit excuses. Work harder.

 

[mesyn191]

10 years ago I lived with my parents. I now have six figures of home equity, ditto retirement account, and my salary has doubled.
Save me the bullshit excuses. Work harder.

Because your income doubled + financially made out everyone should?

Clear cut logical fallacy dude.

And national stats are worth more than any 1 individual's BS just so "made it" anecdote.

 

[Retronym]

Because your income doubled + financially made out everyone should?

Clear cut logical fallacy dude.

And national stats are worth more than any 1 individual's BS just so "made it" anecdote.

Instead of worrying about others, spend your time working hard to be a success. There will always be failures. Be the exception.

Oh, and:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/co...-march-to-best-reading-in-16-years-2017-03-28

 

[Jagger100]

Lawyers and bankers are indeed crap at running hospitals but so are the doctors unfortunately.

The docs used to run nearly every hospital in the US decades ago and now very few do. Its because the skills necessary to be a doc are very different from those necessary to run a business (which is what a hospital is) and the docs didn't really appreciate that fact too well and ended up driving most of the hospitals into near bankruptcy back in the 80's and 90's. These days they're virtually all ran by some mega healthcare conglomerate of sorts. Even the Cathloic/religious ones.

Everything is mega conglomerate because of the government. Indirectly thought lawsuits and directly from the ACA. Bureaucracies reward bureaucracies and the most efficient way to have one it to be big. Therefore the government facilitates them getting larger.

 

[mesyn191]

Name the "other parts of the world".

UK and Finland have done small scale tests before. Canada has done 2 that I'm aware of. Also small scale. Usually relatively isolated small towns with high poverty seem to get chosen for testing. Usually the test periods are pretty short. Less than a year or 2. But its been done before.

I bet you they all have something in common, huh.

Why would that matter?

You have to have an altruistic people motivated by a culture of productivity and greater good for it to work, and it can be undermined if you have open borders to outsiders that don't subscribe to that work ethic and are only coming for the handouts.

Newsflash: any and all systems or organizations can be gamed or manipulated and none will ever be perfect. Ever. Even organizations or systems you might really like such as the police or military or even a hospital.

Fundamentally any fraud issues would be handled the same way insurance fraud would be handled now which is a fairly well solved problem. Perfectly solved? No. But it doesn't need to be in order to function well enough.

But not implemented in a large multi-cultural swiss cheese border country like the United States

[citation needed]

We see this problem with the few homeless we have already,

FYI there are more homeless people now then there was during the Great Depression. And there will be even more of them as automation replaces jobs over the next decade or 2. How exactly will not doing anything (which is exactly what you and others are essentially advocating for here) make the country a better place at all? And no vague platitudes equating work ethic with success or somehow looking for jobs reaaaaallly hard will make them automagically appear are not solutions.

flocking to the cities that offer handouts until they are overrun

All the social support and social welfare programs we have are stretched to the breaking point right now due to the sheer numbers of people becoming impoverished. Its everywhere. Flocking isn't a issue. And shuffling the poor around isn't a solution either.

So the biggest danger to UBI is how do you keep people motivated to contribute to society, and not become dependent on the state and resorting to crime and laziness, as is the case in the projects. After all, the multi-generation welfare queens and projects are an example of what happens with basic income given to unmotivated people.

Taxing the rich more won't (lol edit) cause them to become unmotivated. They while and complain and use all the pull they can to lower taxes but they do that now anyways and have for decades.

Also welfare queens are largely BS invented by Reagan and the projects are a result of racism.

 

[mesyn191]

Instead of worrying about others, spend your time working hard to be a success. There will always be failures. Be the exception.

None of those crap tier platitudes you're spouting even vaguely address what I said. Nor does it do anything to disprove what I said previously.

Oh, and:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/co...-march-to-best-reading-in-16-years-2017-03-28

Consumer confidence isn't consumer income. Note how credit card debt is still growing.

edit: also

 

[mesyn191]

Everything is mega conglomerate because of the government.

LOL no. You don't know what you're talking about in the least here. The move to consolidate hospitals began in the 80's and was and is still done by private corps. It has nothing to do with the ACA. What the ACA brought to the table were ACO's which has nothing to do with hospital corporate consolidation but does deal with consolidation of certain services in locations where its financially practical while also enforcing quality standards and new rules for payment.

There were no lawsuits involved with the formation of ACO's that I'm aware of and most hospitals that joined one did so willingly and eagerly since it meant they'd get more money funneled to them by insurance companies and yes the govt. too through Medicare/Medicaid.

 

[Ducman69]

UK and Finland have done small scale tests before. Canada has done 2 that I'm aware of.

Exactly.

Why would that matter?

Why are you asking a question I answered in detail:

There's a big difference between universal basic income in Venezuela and the same applied in Sweden. You have to have an altruistic people motivated by a culture of productivity and greater good for it to work, and it can be undermined if you have open borders to outsiders that don't subscribe to that work ethic and are only coming for the handouts.

Would UBI be a huge success with the Amish? Absolutely. But not implemented in a large multi-cultural swiss cheese border country like the United States, as it would just reward sloth and import poverty and slums as immigrants from around the world would flock to the handouts. We see this problem with the few homeless we have already, flocking to the cities that offer handouts until they are overrun and have to sour the milk and often pickup and bus them to other towns (take ultra liberal San Francisco for example that ran into that problem, and now has police harassing homeless to make them uncomfortable and has bussed over 10K homeless out of the city with one-way tickets and a cash payoff to GTFO.

Newsflash: any and all systems or organizations can be gamed or manipulated and none will ever be perfect.

What are you talking about? I said nothing of the sort. There's nothing "illegal" about just living on basic income for life, generation after generation. That's not "gaming" the system or cheating, that's just living on it and being unmotivated. I said that we already know what happens when you give generations of unmotivated people basic income. Its called the projects. They have shelter, they have food, they have healthcare, and they also have murder, rapes, looting, assaults, drug crime, and the area generally falls into ruin in no time as people take no ownership of the property and throw trash and spray paint and treat it like a dump. They aren't using that basic income to better themselves and get jobs, they become comfortable and dependent on the state, generation after generation.

[citation needed]

For what, the fact that basic income provided outside of "white utopias" has resulted in slums? If the culture of the population isn't already ingrained with a hard working mentality, you end up with slums. This isn't a hypothetical, we see it everywhere, and even on a nationwide scale in Venezuela.

All the social support and social welfare programs we have are stretched to the breaking point right now due to the sheer numbers of people becoming impoverished. Its everywhere. Flocking isn't a issue. And shuffling the poor around isn't a solution either.

I agree 100%. Stop the importation of poverty into the US, as we have enough to be "at the breaking point" already, and we are incapable of addressing world poverty:

Then find ways to motivate the poor in the US to work, and it is about motivation, as evidenced by the flood of illegal aliens that generally have no highschool education, do not even speak English, and yet have no problems finding jobs cleaning hotels, working in kitchens, doing landscaping, working basic construction, etc. If we did build a wall and crack down on immigration, if you got rid of all the illegal aliens, you would have about 12 million job openings for unemployed Americans, and if there are more jobs and fewer employable people then wages naturally go up (supply and demand).

 

[jtm55]

And you're omniscient and know my work history? I can play that game too. You clearly are a kid (mentally) without a breadth of experience to rely on. I did field repair for Emerg & DI at a busy hospital. It's all professional detachment all the way.

You have the kid mentality as anyone who works directly with injured patients know you have to have compassion. When I applied to the Physical Therapist training program, the 1st requirement that was listed is compassion. Field repair isn't direct care. So AGAIN, YOU HAVE NO EXPERIENCE IN DIRECT CARE. PERIOD!

So take your field repair experience & stick it up your 6th point of contact

 

[mesyn191]

Exactly.

Exactly what? How are any of those results invalid?

Why are you asking a question I answered in detail:

That isn't detail. Its vague unproven assertions, allusions to hard working and/or more productivity=more ethical than, and other assorted BS.

Ethics has nothing to do with productivity or hard work. If it did Wall St. iBankers, lawyers, and politicians would be some of the most ethical people out there.
All talk of "rewarding sloth" is farcical when were looking at a situation that could cause the economic collapse of the US and perhaps most of the rest of the world.

What are you talking about? I said nothing of the sort.

But not implemented in a large multi-cultural swiss cheese border country like the United States, as it would just reward sloth and import poverty and slums as immigrants from around the world would flock to the handouts.

Sure looks like you're suggesting illegal immigration/fraud would swamp a UBI to me here. After all if they're not citizens or legal immigrants they can't get on a UBI right?

I said that we already know what happens when you give generations of unmotivated people basic income. Its called the projects.......For what, the fact that basic income provided outside of "white utopias" has resulted in slums?

You said it but that isn't proving it. Everyone has been getting poorer in the US, except the rich of course, they're getting richer. Economic and social movement have been on the decline in a big way since the 80's at least. Why is it so hard for you to believe that as a cause of multigenerational poverty? And don't forget race too while you're at it.

and even on a nationwide scale in Venezuela.

Venezuela's problems having nothing to do with social welfare safety nets like a UBI. The problem with that country is the rampant and jaw dropping corruption in its top business (oil) and its awful govt. leadership who have essentially stolen tens of billions of dollars of wealth from the Venezuelan people. It is essentially a failed state at this point.

Then find ways to motivate the poor in the US to work, and it is about motivation,

All the motivation in the world means nothing if there are no jobs and/or no jobs that pay enough to live much less improve your standard of living.

If we did build a wall and crack down on immigration, if you got rid of all the illegal aliens, you would have about 12 million job openings for unemployed Americans.

You realize the people hiring the illegals could always hire current Americans right now if they wanted right? Driving American wages down to what the illegals are getting paid sure as hell won't motivate anyone. And it won't improve their lives either. Sure as hell won't make them more ethical or better in any way either. It'll just make a lot of very poor people.

 

[Ducman69]

Exactly what? How are any of those results invalid?

How many times are you going to make me copy and paste the same reply? You don't like the answer, so stop asking the same question.

Ethics has nothing to do with productivity or hard work.

Uhmmm, ok? Can you quote me where I said anything about ethics? A culture of hard work has to do with a culture of hard work... I know, crazy. The Japanese for example are a very industrious people, and in their homogeneous altruistic society, a basic income would probably work just fine. But if Japan had open borders (lucky for them they do not) and they implemented a UBI, billions of the world's poor that make a few bucks a day would flood Japan, and it wouldn't be sustainable and Japan wouldn't be Japan in a few years.

All the motivation in the world means nothing if there are no jobs and/or no jobs that pay enough to live much less improve your standard of living.

This is very circular, we've addressed this twice. There are no jobs, and yet somehow 12 million unskilled illegal aliens find those jobs that you insist do not exist. Its a question of motivation. Its more comfortable to live on handouts than it is to work for low wages.

You realize the people hiring the illegals could always hire current Americans right now if they wanted right?

They would in fact prefer to hire the Americans, because it puts them in less legal risk. Papasitos here in Houston knows that all too well, as they were hit with massive lawsuits for employing so many illegals in their restaurant chain. They are motivated however to give the job for whoever will do a good job for the least amount of money; and that's usually illegals because they are motivated.

Driving American wages down to what the illegals are getting paid sure as hell won't motivate anyone.

Stop. Take a breath. Why are wages for those jobs down? We've discussed this... its supply and demand. If you have four people competing for the same job, you have more labor supply than labor demand, and so wages go down. If you have more employers competing for good employees, the wages go up. Remove 12 million illegal aliens, and you will have millions of job openings. In the 1960s, a sanitation worker could comfortably support a family, because there were so many jobs compared to good employees. Americans should not have to work for slave-wages of illegal aliens, and if you cut off that illegal alien labor supply, they won't have to.

 

[lcpiper]

Lawyers and bankers are indeed crap at running hospitals but so are the doctors unfortunately.

The docs used to run nearly every hospital in the US decades ago and now very few do. Its because the skills necessary to be a doc are very different from those necessary to run a business (which is what a hospital is) and the docs didn't really appreciate that fact too well and ended up driving most of the hospitals into near bankruptcy back in the 80's and 90's. These days they're virtually all ran by some mega healthcare conglomerate of sorts. Even the Cathloic/religious ones.

Right, but the business practices of the business guys are getting in the way of the compassionate healthcare effort.

Look, you can have all the compassion and care ingrained into your medical staff that you can stand, but when you line people up and put them on a conveyor belt like parts on an assembly line what good is all that compassion?

Any time a patient shows up and says he has something in his eye that is damaging his eye, how does that not get move right up behind the heart attacks and strokes and broken bones?

Even worse, when you do eventually get some attention, why are they able to get from hello, what's your temp, all the way to prescribing medication as they send you home before you finally realize that they never ever listened well enough to what your problem is to realize that you still have an object in your eye that is scratching the shit out of it? I allowed this girl to go through her process trusting that she knew what was what. How does she not ask first thing, "do you think it's still in your eye?"

The assembly line process is part of the problem. It's no better than going to a restaurant to eat. You wait for a seat, you get seated, the server always wants to get you drinks and let you sit even when you already know what you want to order. Usually they don't even ask if you are already ready to order, they ask about drinks and about face off they go "But but bu ......" Too late, she'll drop the drinks by in 5 minutes maybe, and maybe ask if you are ready to order, maybe not though. It doesn't get easier when your done eating, you can have your card on the table or in your hand and they will drop the check off for you to ponder and you will have to wait for a return visit before you can hand them your card, then you'll wait again for them to run the card, drop it off at your table, all you have to do is sign it but they will turn their backs on you yet again and disappear while you sit at that table waiting.

Obviously they haven't made the connection that getting you in and out again is the secret to getting seated again and making more money. How is that not made clear in training, get them in and out as fast as you can while keeping them happy. It's no more difficult than that.

Six hours at the hospital emergency room cause the wife waiting to late to look for help with a UTI, all the clinics were closed. I know, it's a minor problem but it still requires attention so get her in, have her pee in a cup and send her home ffs, call in her prescription and I'll go pick it up for her. It doesn't need to be a six hour trial with her lying in a fucking bed with a blue gown on. FFS our healthcare system is so fucking broken.

I'm sorry for this ranting guys and I am sorry if this hits close to home. It's not the individual health care professionals that are the problem, it's the businessmen and lawyers in charge that have it all fucked up.

 

[mesyn191]

How many times are you going to make me copy and paste the same reply? You don't like the answer, so stop asking the same question.

There is nothing to like or dislike. Its just you saying stuff with nothing to back it up is my point.

Uhmmm, ok? Can you quote me where I said anything about ethics?

You have to have an altruistic people motivated by a culture of productivity and greater good for it to work

They have shelter, they have food, they have healthcare, and they also have murder, rapes, looting, assaults, drug crime, and the area generally falls into ruin in no time as people take no ownership of the property and throw trash and spray paint and treat it like a dump.

You CONSTANTLY equate work with ethics whenever this subject comes up. They have nothing to do with eachother. At all.

But if Japan had open borders (lucky for them they do not) and they implemented a UBI, billions of the world's poor that make a few bucks a day would flood Japan, and it wouldn't be sustainable and Japan wouldn't be Japan in a few years.

No country doing a UBI would let that many people in or allow them use of their UBI though. You're banging away at a strawman here.

This is very circular, we've addressed this twice.

No you haven't. You'll say something on the subject and then act as if your opinion is the end all be all here.

The problem you're ignoring is at the wages those people want to pay there are no legal workers. No legal workers, no jobs, at least not legally. There are no legal workers because they can't live on that wage. The illegals will work it because where they're from is so horrible that its a bit of a improvement but for any American it'd be a big step down in their quality of life.

Now why in the world you expect just about everyone else to lower their standard of living when they don't have to is beyond me. Also you're ignoring the OP's information in this thread which points out automation will be eliminating lots of jobs in the US in the future. Even the illegals won't be able to work at some point for illegally low wages. How you expect people to survive that is something you keep pointedly ignoring too.

They would in fact prefer to hire the Americans, because it puts them in less legal risk.

Nope. They prefer to hire whoever will work for the lowest wage possible. That is all they care about.

They are motivated however to give the job for whoever will do a good job for the least amount of money; and that's usually illegals because they are motivated.

Motivation has nothing to do with it. Its all about money, legality be damned. Motivation doesn't provide livable wages. It doesn't create jobs. And it doesn't grow the economy which is what is needed if you want to create jobs right now. In a heavily automated labor future motivation will be worth even less than nothing.

We've discussed this... its supply and demand.

Supply and demand don't matter when you're talking about legality. Min. wage laws exist for a reason. Or for that matter talking about being able to live on the wage the jobs pay. Also currently unemployment is low. Wages should be going up drastically but they aren't.

 

[mesyn191]

Right, but the business practices of the business guys are getting in the way of the compassionate healthcare effort.

Healthcare hasn't been compassionate since at least the 80's when all the changes started to occur rapidly and HMO's really took off. Even when the docs were in charge towards the end of their control it became all about the money.

If you want somewhat affordable (forget cheap, even under a UHS) healthcare and/or improved access or speed of service you have to forget about compassion and go full assembly line in diagnosis and treatment. There just isn't enough money, resources, staff, or docs to go around to do anything any other way.

A bit ugly? Sure. But its true too.

Any time a patient shows up and says he has something in his eye that is damaging his eye, how does that not get move right up behind the heart attacks and strokes and broken bones?

Some places have started to treat before getting documentation or billing info. for some things or doing a regular pre check but triage is never going away.

Triage of some sort is the only way to use the limited resources, facilities, staff, equipment, and doctors with anything resembling fairness, competency, or decent quality of care.

Six hours at the hospital emergency room cause the wife waiting to late to look for help with a UTI....FFS our healthcare system is so fucking broken.

Man you have no clue if that alone is enough to make you think our healthcare system is broken.

I've seen little old ladies with broken hips wait for over half a day before getting seen by anyone in a ER. Then I've seen them take months to get worked on by surgeon. And this is in the US where supposedly there are no waiting lists. Which is BS. There have always been waiting lists when it comes to healthcare. Unless you're rich of course.

 

[tetris42]

Then find ways to motivate the poor in the US to work, and it is about motivation, as evidenced by the flood of illegal aliens that generally have no highschool education, do not even speak English, and yet have no problems finding jobs cleaning hotels, working in kitchens, doing landscaping, working basic construction, etc. If we did build a wall and crack down on immigration, if you got rid of all the illegal aliens, you would have about 12 million job openings for unemployed Americans, and if there are more jobs and fewer employable people then wages naturally go up (supply and demand).

See this is the fallacy I think is coloring your whole perspective. Do you realize the majority of welfare recipients ARE WORKING? They're taking all these great jobs you're talking about and still can't make ends meet. And in most cases this is not a case of not buying a big screen TV, it's a decision of being able to afford rent OR dental care. So yes, there are always going to be slackasses, but the MAJORITY of the poor are ALREADY WORKING. Not that you'd ever know this from looking at the news, they don't like to talk about this in any other framework other than showing Bubba sitting on a couch eating cheetos collecting welfare checks. That's the exception, not the rule.

As for illegal immigration, a wall won't change much, if the parties were serious about stopping immigration, they would crack down on EMPLOYERS. If an employer was likely to go to prison for hiring an illegal immigrant, it would change the tune of hiring practices dramatically. Imagine illegal immigrants stop coming here because they can't find work because no one will hire them? Sounds like something out of science fiction right? That's not what the powers that be want however, because big business likes cheap labor, so instead we can get grandstanding for things like a wall (since when can Mexicans not figure out how to get around a wall?) that don't actually change the situation, but are symbolic enough to quell the voters.

Again, the point of robotization is THERE WON'T BE ENOUGH JOBS. You're talking about 12 million from illegal immigrants, fine, robotization is threatening more like 50 million. So even if every illegal immigrant gets up and leaves, THERE WON'T BE ENOUGH JOBS. So "motivating the poor to work hard" is not a solution for multiple reasons, cracking down on illegal immigrants, while it would help (no argument there), is not a SOLUTION. This could depend on your worldview however. In my eyes, playing musical chairs is a bad system for determining who gets to earn a living or not, especially when we're taking away more and more chairs.

 

[mesyn191]

As for illegal immigration, a wall won't change much, if the parties were serious about stopping immigration, they would crack down on EMPLOYERS.

This is absolutely true.

There are already laws on the books to allow them to crack down on employers. The laws just mysteriously tend to get selectively enforced on this issue for some reason. More reading here: Forget the Wall. If You Want Less Illegal Immigration, Go After Employers.

Relevent quote for the tl&dr'ers:

In 2014, the probability that one of the nation’s 6 million employers would be investigated for violating immigration laws was 0.03%.

 

[Ducman69]

As for illegal immigration, a wall won't change much, if the parties were serious about stopping immigration, they would crack down on EMPLOYERS. If an employer was likely to go to prison for hiring an illegal immigrant, it would change the tune of hiring practices dramatically.

No it wouldn't, especially when the POTUS was telling local governments for 8 years not to enforce immigration law, and promoting sanctuary cities. And why will it not affect businesses?

Plausible deniability.

Most of the illegals are employed through contract agencies, ones that pop up under new names overnight and disappear just as quickly, and those that aren't are small operations dealing directly with consumers (do have the means to background check the guy who is mowing your lawn... really?) If I'm Shell and I contract out some work, and the contractor is using illegals, that's not on me because I never touch the paperwork of the contractors and that HR work is handled through the contractor I'm using. So they may go after "Rapidas Resourcing Inc." which is most of the time descendants of illegals in the first place, and they just disappear, shut down shop, and then open up again under a new name... when they are even investigated which rarely happens, because there are so many, and there are so many that benefit. The entire Democratic party wants them, because they are the fastest growing new voter segment, and all those anchor babies are fresh new stock with others in that community sympathetic because of their own family history, and then you have some Republicans that are lobbied by large industries that rely on the cheap slave labor to keep their high profits. So no, you can't just go after the employers alone, and as they say "an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure". If anytime someone is pulled over for a routine traffic stop, and you didn't have a driver's license (and we shouldn't be issuing driver's licenses to illegals like California), that should be reason for the police officer to then have to make positive identification of the suspect, and if they aren't in the computer as a lawful resident, they are arrested and turned over to the INS for deportation processing, the risk/reward ratio for illegals would discourage from coming over in the first place.

So any effective strategy needs to be multi-pronged: Secured borders patrolled by the US army/coastguard (that's the whole purpose after all, to defend the US), including a physical barrier to entry with a barricade, sensors, rapid response teams, surveillance, etc., routine checks for illegals for regular law enforcement (run a stop sign and illegal, boom, arrested), and going after employers to the full extent of the law.

Again, the point of robotization is THERE WON'T BE ENOUGH JOBS. You're talking about 12 million from illegal immigrants, fine, robotization is threatening more like 50 million. So even if every illegal immigrant gets up and leaves, THERE WON'T BE ENOUGH JOBS.

There will be millions more than otherwise, so as you point out mechanization means that we need to stop the bleeding ASAP if we hope to focus on retraining and motivating our own people to get skillsets that will still be useful to a mechanized society. Its going to be enough of a challenge without the unskilled illegal population growing every year, and we can't afford to train and support the whole world. But yes, I agree it is a problem that we need to tackle, and as I said originally we have to find a way to tackle the problem while ensuring that people don't become comfortable on welfare, and you end up with generation after generation that never work because they don't have to. We DO need to find a fair way to distribute the fruits of mechanized labor, while still ensuring people are motivated to work. Perhaps that would include only distributing the "basic income" to someone that works at least 20 hours a week, and for those that refuse to work, getting only barely enough to survive so that they are uncomfortable and motivated to do something, anything, that contributes to society.

 

[alxlwson]

Trade schools are just as much of a joke as college degrees when it comes to finding a job in the US right now. And still pretty damn expensive too. The military pays crap and even the benefits are being cut, unless of course you end up in combat and then yeah its pretty good....but then you're in combat which is horrible unless you get lucky. Apprenticeships are also virtually a thing of the past too in the US. They'll soon be almost entirely gone. Blue Collar semi skilled jobs that don't require a degree are becoming quite scarce and have been for ver a shortage of STEM jobs and there has been a ugly race to the bottom in STEM job wages over the last 5yr or so. STEM degrees/jobs are not a viable mass solution. They aren't even a solution for quite a few highly intelligent and skilled people either.

You don't know what you're talking about.
Have a look at the career websites. So many well paying trades jobs. Most of the people in my industrial maintenance classes had the schooling SPONSORED AND PREPAID, making close to $30/hr with no experience while they were still attending. I make nearly six figs a year with a lowly certificate. I work hard, and I win hard.
The military pays quite well as a whole. My dad retired from the Navy after 20yrs enlisted active duty. His retirement pays the mortgage on their house, plus plenty extra. We never needed or wanted for anything growing up, and we got to see the world around. Not everything in the military is combat roles. My dad was an EWC. There are TONS of positions in the military that are non-combat. I was an airborne postmaster in the USAF. I shoved shit in/out out of a C-130, never once saw a combat zone.

Your view is very very small, incorrect, and pathetic. It speaks well to what kind of person you are.

 

[Uvaman2]

Of course US will be hit hardest.. every other self-respecting advanced nation will take care of their people, by any means necessary, be it universal income, or whatever economic adjustment needed.
US is a fairly cruel nation to its people (when compared to advanced industrialized nations), and getting worse by the decade.
It so disturbing hearing just regular folk (in the millions) talking about entitlements and shit, carrying water like crazy for the 1%, as if they are one.
In-fucking-credible.

 

[tetris42]

No it wouldn't, especially when the POTUS was telling local governments for 8 years not to enforce immigration law, and promoting sanctuary cities. And why will it not affect businesses?

Plausible deniability.

Most of the illegals are employed through contract agencies, ones that pop up under new names overnight and disappear just as quickly, and those that aren't are small operations dealing directly with consumers (do have the means to background check the guy who is mowing your lawn... really?) If I'm Shell and I contract out some work, and the contractor is using illegals, that's not on me because I never touch the paperwork of the contractors and that HR work is handled through the contractor I'm using. So they may go after "Rapidas Resourcing Inc." which is most of the time descendants of illegals in the first place, and they just disappear, shut down shop, and then open up again under a new name... when they are even investigated which rarely happens, because there are so many, and there are so many that benefit. The entire Democratic party wants them, because they are the fastest growing new voter segment, and all those anchor babies are fresh new stock with others in that community sympathetic because of their own family history, and then you have some Republicans that are lobbied by large industries that rely on the cheap slave labor to keep their high profits. So no, you can't just go after the employers alone, and as they say "an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure". If anytime someone is pulled over for a routine traffic stop, and you didn't have a driver's license (and we shouldn't be issuing driver's licenses to illegals like California), that should be reason for the police officer to then have to make positive identification of the suspect, and if they aren't in the computer as a lawful resident, they are arrested and turned over to the INS for deportation processing, the risk/reward ratio for illegals would discourage from coming over in the first place.

So any effective strategy needs to be multi-pronged: Secured borders patrolled by the US army/coastguard (that's the whole purpose after all, to defend the US), including a physical barrier to entry with a barricade, sensors, rapid response teams, surveillance, etc., routine checks for illegals for regular law enforcement (run a stop sign and illegal, boom, arrested), and going after employers to the full extent of the law.

Imagine illegal immigrants stop coming here because they can't find work because no one will hire them? Sounds like something out of science right? That's not what the powers that be want however, because big business likes cheap labor, so instead we can get grandstanding for things like a wall (since when can Mexicans not figure out how to get around a wall?) that don't actually change the situation, but are symbolic enough to quell the voters.

There will be millions more than otherwise, so as you point out mechanization means that we need to stop the bleeding ASAP if we hope to focus on retraining and motivating our own people to get skillsets that will still be useful to a mechanized society. Its going to be enough of a challenge without the unskilled illegal population growing every year, and we can't afford to train and support the whole world. But yes, I agree it is a problem that we need to tackle, and as I said originally we have to find a way to tackle the problem while ensuring that people don't become comfortable on welfare, and you end up with generation after generation that never work because they don't have to. We DO need to find a fair way to distribute the fruits of mechanized labor, while still ensuring people are motivated to work. Perhaps that would include only distributing the "basic income" to someone that works at least 20 hours a week, and for those that refuse to work, getting only barely enough to survive so that they are uncomfortable and motivated to do something, anything, that contributes to society.

Couple things:

First, it's not JUST the democrats. BOTH parties are trying to sell the American people down the river. They both are awash in corporate money. You saty "some republicans are lobbied by large industries", I'd say the vast majority of CONGRESS is lobbied by large industries that often run counter to what the American people want. If you make this is a Republicans v. Democrats issue, that'll get you nowhere fast. The majority of BOTH parties are BOUGHT AND PAID FOR. Oh sure, they'll SAY all kinds of things to make them look like they're on opposite ends of the spectrum, but if you look at majority actions over time (not just anecdotal incidents), it paints a pretty clear picture. Again, you would never believe this from the news, but there are some issues that the majority of both liberals and conservatives would be in favor of. One of these is cracking down on illegal immigrant employers. Both sides don't like that, because it encourages race-to-the-bottom wages and working conditions and rewards businesses who break the law. But you know who is FOT that? Big money interests. So, conservatives and liberals BOTH are against that, but the Democrat and Republican party is FOR that, policy-wise. It's vital to cut through the bullshit on these issues.

Second, I'm glad you realize we have to do SOMETHING. I'm not necessarily for one solution or another, I'm just against doing NOTHING to solve the problem, which is current policy to date. UBI might work, or it could have a lot of hard to foresee problems, I don't know, but it has to be better than NOTHING. Another alternative I've thought of is guaranteed jobs by the government. So if you can't find work? Have kids to feed? No problem, the government could shift to act as the employer of last resort. They can evaluate your skillsets and put you where you might be of use. Don't have a lot of skills? Fine, you can pick up trash, do infrastructure construction, or anything we SHOULD be doing, but isn't PROFITABLE for the private sector to take care of. I of course realize that would never happen in our current political climate, but it's something that COULD be done if we wanted to. We could create funding for it just by auditing the Pentagon alone, they annually have trillions of dollars they can't account for.

I guess what I'm driving at is I think in an ideal society, everyone should have the opportunity to provide for themselves. Right now, for many people that's the case, for many it others, it really isn't, but a lot people talk like there's always jobs for EVERYONE, and the ONLY thing preventing everyone from having one is work ethic. That's simply not the case, that's a fantasy. Strong work ethic ALWAYS helps, but there's way too many cases, where that's not enough. I mean hell, earlier in this thread, the guy was bragging about earning 6 figures, but living with his parents prior. He probably doesn't realize he had the LUXURY to live with his parents and wasn't so poor he had to drop out of high school to earn enough to support his younger siblings. Too many people are blind to their advantages and can't understand how good they have it, no matter how hard they've worked. Now if you KNEW everyone could always get living-wages work SOMEWHERE, guaranteed, (assuming they weren't just fucking around obviously), then I could respect the sink-or-swim mentality much more. Right now though, it's still musical chairs.

 

[Ducman69]

First, it's not JUST the democrats. BOTH parties are trying to sell the American people down the river.

That's what I said, there's support from the majority of Democrats, because they are catering to that growing voter-base, and from some of the Republicans. However, the only ones that have made meaningful push to securing US borders and stopping illegal immigration are the Republican Party. That's not a matter of opinion, but fact, especially with the Trump Administration that is making it a cornerstone of their policy.

Second, I'm glad you realize we have to do SOMETHING. I'm not necessarily for one solution or another, I'm just against doing NOTHING to solve the problem, which is current policy to date.

We haven't hit the tipping point yet, so the status quo remains. Once we have self-driving cars as the majority though, that will be the biggest shock to the system. There's nothing wrong with government jobs, but we live in a free society. You can tell me I have to pick up trash, but what if I still say "blow me"... then what? Or what if I say "sure" and then just don't show up to work half the time, and the other half I'm showing up at 10AM and leaving at noon... then what? I need to be fired, which ultimately becomes a motivation issue. You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make it drink.

I guess what I'm driving at is I think in an ideal society, everyone should have the opportunity to provide for themselves.

I believe we already have it. What I'm driving at is that I think in an ideal society, everyone should be required to provide for themselves to the best of their ability. Not everyone is equally talented or capable, but they need to give their best effort, and those that are more talented or capable deserve to keep the fruits of their labor and not have it taken away from them by threat of physical force to give to people that are too lazy to lift a finger for themselves... that's not fair.

For example, remember the story about the ant and the grasshopper?

In today's society, come winter we'd probably see the grasshopper out protesting and wrecking the streets and yelling at press cameras, "Why are the ants living in luxury, while grasshoppers are starving!" CNN would cut to a scene of ants warm in their homes stocked full of food, and talk about the racist systematic oppression of the grasshoppers, just for the green color of their exoskeletons. Birdy Sanders would then hold a rally and exclaim that the ants have gotten rich off the back of the grasshoppers, and demand the stored seeds for himself in his third vacation home and the grasshoppers be distributed. The ants would then also probably face a discrimination lawsuit for failing to employ any grasshoppers during the summer season, and end up hungry for the winter while the grasshopper kicks back munching on seeds in housing the ants were forced to treck out into the cold to build for him.

 

[Retronym]

I want to provide something constructive to those with the irrational fear of technology and progress.

As it turns out, there is a lovely area of Pennsylvania you can move to with like-minded people.

 

[lcpiper]

See this is the fallacy I think is coloring your whole perspective. Do you realize the majority of welfare recipients ARE WORKING? They're taking all these great jobs you're talking about and still can't make ends meet. .....................................

Wait wait wait ......

OK, I just typed a novel, then I deleted it.

I'll shorten it considerably, good luck, take advantage of all you can. Stay out of debt as much as you can. Get a good cash back credit card and pay for everything with it, and always pay off the balance. Let someone pay you, don't pay them interest, the other way is much better.

Some luck, some work, some good decisions or at least avoiding bad ones, and you can make it fine. But you got to get out there and play the game.

We all die in the end, it's not the destination, it's the journey.

The road can be easier or harder and sometimes, life is hard.

But it's harder if your stupid

John Wayne said something like that, I always like it.

 

[Uvaman2]

Wait wait wait ......

OK, I just typed a novel, then I deleted it.

I'll shorten it considerably, good luck, take advantage of all you can. Stay out of debt as much as you can. Get a good cash back credit card and pay for everything with it, and always pay off the balance. Let someone pay you, don't pay them interest, the other way is much better.

Some luck, some work, some good decisions or at least avoiding bad ones, and you can make it fine. But you got to get out there and play the game.

We all die in the end, it's not the destination, it's the journey.

The road can be easier or harder and sometimes, life is hard.

But it's harder if your stupid

John Wayne said something like that, I always like it.

None of which are excuses for a government ('democracy" no less) that is actively creating even bigger disparities in wealth.

 

[lilbabycat]

I want to provide something constructive to those with the irrational fear of technology and progress.

A smug simplistic reply to a complex issue...Hmm which democratic metro bubble do you live in? Oh...Bethesda.

 

[tetris42]

Wait wait wait ......

OK, I just typed a novel, then I deleted it.

I'll shorten it considerably, good luck, take advantage of all you can. Stay out of debt as much as you can. Get a good cash back credit card and pay for everything with it, and always pay off the balance. Let someone pay you, don't pay them interest, the other way is much better.

Some luck, some work, some good decisions or at least avoiding bad ones, and you can make it fine. But you got to get out there and play the game.

We all die in the end, it's not the destination, it's the journey.

The road can be easier or harder and sometimes, life is hard.

But it's harder if your stupid

John Wayne said something like that, I always like it.

Here, maybe you can clear things up for me then. Here's my perspective on how I think some people seem to be viewing the situation:

-Poor people make bad decisions, therefore they get what's coming to them.
-Everyone has the opportunity to make it. No ifs, ands, or buts.
-People who do everything right and are still not making it is either impossible or else is not a large scale problem.
-If there are simply not enough jobs for everyone, that's not a problem, people just need to work harder and / or be smart about things.
-Child hunger in America due to poverty is either made up, or else not something that can be fixed.
-We don't need any fancy programs or solutions to correct problems, because there are no fundamental problems that we can fix that way.

Since we're just relying on rhetoric now, is that a more or less accurate assessment from what you're arguing? If not, care to clarify it for me? If I got the assessment about right, I'll shut up, that tells me all I need to know.

EDIT:

I think we're discussing two different things. It sounds like you're saying "everyone should try their best in life to get by, some will do better than others." I agree, no argument from me there. However, that's kind of separate thing from what I'm basically arguing, which is "the less people that are sick, starving, or homeless the better, we should get there any way we can." Pseudo quoting John Wayne doesn't really provide any insight on the latter. On the contrary, life is hard enough, so maybe we shouldn't double down on stupid to KEEP it hard.

 

[tungt88]

The people bringing up the automation issue have been pretty clear that skilled labor involving direct human contact (ie. healthcare) jobs are one of the few groups that won't be much effected by coming automation so you're kinda whacking on a strawman here or completely failing to understand what is being brought up on in the various studies.

No, I am not. I am simply providing some anecdotal background experience about how one of my experiences with the healthcare system convinced me that increasingly (in America), connections are what give you what you need, much more than just going by the system (as Icpiper's horrible experience showed).

The "robot healthcare bit" I added onto the end of my post was a way to bring the discussion back on course. Or, to put it another way: while medical droids and Bacta tanks are a really cool idea, they're still a ways off. And not everyone can be in the healthcare profession.

Saying that I am "whacking on a straw man", or "completely failing to understand", without seeing the context under which my post was about (and it's attached "robot healthcare bit"), is looking for the penny, while missing the dollar.

On a more humorous note: will this song be more relevant in the near future?

(I actually prefer this a bit over the original 1969 song)

 

[Deleted member 222586]

Self repairing self replicating robots using biomass for fuel is the inevitable future. Mankind is doomed.

This is also the reason there are no advanced alien civilisations. At some point all advanced civilizations are killed by their robot overlords.

Looks like Im not the only one who played Horizon: Zero Dawn

 

[lcpiper]

............. Secured borders patrolled by the US army/coastguard (that's the whole purpose after all, to defend the US), including a physical barrier to entry with a barricade, sensors, rapid response teams, surveillance, etc., routine checks for illegals for regular law enforcement (run a stop sign and illegal, boom, arrested), and going after employers to the full extent of the law.

Ummm, Ducman69, this is not a good idea. The reason this is a bad idea is playing border cop does not a soldier make. Modern soldiers require too much specific training to be able to use them for purposes other than actual warfare. The last 15 years are a perfect example. The units that go to the National Training centers have been failing because in the simplest terms, they have forgotten how to actually fight a conventional war. That should not be a comforting thought.

Having the Army patrol the borders is just more of the same misuse. In WW1 and WW2, you could train a basic Infantryman in a few short weeks. Today it takes much much longer and the skills are far more complex which means you have to practice them more often because they are more perishable.

I agree there is a problem. I agree that we need to make a real dent in the flow of illegals. I live less then 30 miles of the Mexican border, I've seen a local cop in town stop a van and we stopped and watched as 17 people got out of that van and ran into the alleys and streets while all the cop could do was watch and count heads.

Now the State National Guard troops would be a possibility, they do have a State mission but the Federal Government has made it clear recently that the States are supposed to let the Border Patrol handle immigration issues. There are some issues with using the Guard anyway, posse comitatus is not easy to get around the way it is written. I am also not sure you want to mess with rewriting it. Be careful what you wish for comes to mind.

Much of the world is modernizing their military forces and material. The US used to be an overwhelming military force but that is not true today. We no longer have the clearly obvious dominance we had 15 years ago. Misusing the Military for the last 15 years has had a very real impact on our ability to fight a real war, the kind of war you fight when a nation's survival is at stake. The kind some people foolishly think we'll never have to fight again, despite thousands of years of history to the contrary.

 

[lcpiper]

None of which are excuses for a government ('democracy" no less) that is actively creating even bigger disparities in wealth.

Disparities in wealth.

I'm an IT guy, just a retire sergeant, I don't even have a bachelors degree. My wife is a barber. We gross over $145K a year and can save a good $5K ever single month unless we are spending it on something special.

Just maybe someone should start questioning the truthfulness of this claim. My wife and I are getting ready to buy our second home, with a check just like the first one, with no mortgage.

The problem is not a question of lack opportunity, the playing field isn't so uneven that people can't make it. The problem is people are not seeing the world the way it truly is and making wise decisions.

My wife and I both hoped we could teach our kids better.

That's why I have one daughter who got her degree in Psych and the other in Animation Art and they are both over 30 and neither has a job.

My daughter used to talk like this, how things aren't fair and there is no opportunity. Her fiancee was at home not working, he can't get a job, you need experience blah blah. Truth is, he just didn't know how to go get a job. Then a few years ago he got something going. He's on a role now. He just got an internal move from the help desk to an IA team. His schooling was in accounting but he's made for IT, or whatever else he sets his mind to do, like most people. Funny too, he's on a defense contract but he's a local boy, not a military brat or retiree like me. The local kids in Army towns always think they can't get near the piggie trough but that's not really true. There is more then enough room to go around if you don't mind rubbing shoulders with old men that tell stupid old soldier stories.

 

[tungt88]

Self repairing self replicating robots using biomass for fuel is the inevitable future. Mankind is doomed.

This is also the reason there are no advanced alien civilisations. At some point all advanced civilizations are killed by their robot overlords.

That last sentence is actually one of the background assumptions of the Warhammer 40K universe, during the Dark Age of Technology (pre-30k), when the "Men of Stone" (heavily implied to be independent AI robots) launched a rebellion/takeover from their complacent human overlords. Ultimately, the humans won, but at the cost of the destruction of the then human federation/federated star empire. The experience of that time is what led the Adeptus Mechanicus to ban all forms of independent AI whatsoever (dissident went underground and ultimately played a large role in the formation of the Dark Mechanicus during the Horus Heresy). /40K fantalk off

That idea was also the background described in the various Dune prequels about the "Machine Crusade" -- with an all-powerful Evermind (Omnius) and its legions of robots, human-robot hybrids (the Cymeks), and, of course, the humans.

And, of course, the classic that started it all, R.U.R https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R.U.R.

 

[tungt88]

As for the "US will be hit harder than other major economies"? Hmm ... I think China would be hit harder than anybody else, given that they are the world's manufacturer of almost everything, if robots become cheaper to "manufacture" than humans (admittedly a nation of 1.38 billion has a bit of a head start). I'm actually very surprised that the article neglected to say that, as China was the very first country that came to mind.

 

[lcpiper]

Looks like Im not the only one who played Horizon: Zero Dawn

I want to, but I'm not buying a console and as far as I know it's not coming out for the PC.

 

[tetris42]

Disparities in wealth.

I'm an IT guy, just a retire sergeant, I don't even have a bachelors degree. My wife is a barber. We gross over $145K a year and can save a good $5K ever single month unless we are spending it on something special.

Just maybe someone should start questioning the truthfulness of this claim. My wife and I are getting ready to buy our second home, with a check just like the first one, with no mortgage.

The problem is not a question of lack opportunity, the playing field isn't so uneven that people can't make it. The problem is people are not seeing the world the way it truly is and making wise decisions.

My wife and I both hoped we could teach our kids better.

That's why I have one daughter who got her degree in Psych and the other in Animation Art and they are both over 30 and neither has a job.

My daughter used to talk like this, how things aren't fair and there is no opportunity. Her fiancee was at home not working, he can't get a job, you need experience blah blah. Truth is, he just didn't know how to go get a job. Then a few years ago he got something going. He's on a role now. He just got an internal move from the help desk to an IA team. His schooling was in accounting but he's made for IT, or whatever else he sets his mind to do, like most people. Funny too, he's on a defense contract but he's a local boy, not a military brat or retiree like me. The local kids in Army towns always think they can't get near the piggie trough but that's not really true. There is more then enough room to go around if you don't mind rubbing shoulders with old men that tell stupid old soldier stories.

So you're wealthy enough to be in the top 15% of Americans, are basing your judgment of the macro-analysis for the situation of hundreds of millions of people off anecdotal examples of your success plus a few clueless millennials lacking in work ethic, then making the conclusion that there will be plenty of opportunity, despite there literally going to be more people who need jobs than there are ones available, got it.

 

[alxlwson]

So you're wealthy enough to be in the top 15% of Americans, are basing your judgment of the macro-analysis for the situation of hundreds of millions of people off anecdotal examples of your success plus a few clueless millennials lacking in work ethic, then making the conclusion that there will be plenty of opportunity, despite there literally going to be more people who need jobs than there are ones available, got it.

He worked his way there. That's pretty good experience to go off of. Just because he made it doesn't make his argument invalid. He started at the bottom and made it to a very nice level. Sounds to me like he has a more valid argument than most.