Toyota Has a Curious Justification for Not Selling Any EVs

Discussion in 'HardForum Tech News' started by Megalith, Mar 17, 2019.

  1. Wierdo

    Wierdo [H]ard|Gawd

    Messages:
    1,776
    Joined:
    Jul 2, 2011
    Toyota's CEO was anti-EV, his engineers showed him their prototype and he coldly dismissed it and ridiculed their idea. No one dared question him due to Japanese corporate culture.

    They just got caught with their pants down as their Prius sales cratered in California all of a sudden when new gen EVs entered the market.
     
    Last edited: Mar 18, 2019
    Talyrius likes this.
  2. GT98

    GT98 [H]ard|Gawd

    Messages:
    1,249
    Joined:
    Aug 29, 2001
    Not exactly-Diesel is extremely dirty in relation to a gas engine in emissions released. The additional upcharge for diesel engines (plus maintenance) and the gap between MPGs Diesel vs Gas engine has shrank dramatically (due to newer emissions standards being tougher on diesel) has practically removed any advantages diesel engines have had in light car/truck applications.
     
  3. GT98

    GT98 [H]ard|Gawd

    Messages:
    1,249
    Joined:
    Aug 29, 2001
    But at the same time, California isn't exactly like the rest of the world-people who can afford Teslas are buying them because they have the same cult that Apple had 5-10 years ago. Those were the same Prius buyer 15 years ago when they first came out.

    BEV are the future, but even with CARB requiring 10% of cars being electric, we are still 10-15 years away before they make headway in controlling a large portion of the market.
     
  4. DanHirschberg

    DanHirschberg n00b

    Messages:
    42
    Joined:
    Mar 16, 2019

    You're right. I believe we really ought to be running horses again. Clydesdale model year 1452 anyone?
     
    Talyrius likes this.
  5. Snowdog

    Snowdog [H]ardForum Junkie

    Messages:
    9,236
    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2006
    EV stories really bring out the Luddites and misinformation on [H].

    Most of the Lithium comes from natural brines, in evaporation ponds in South America deserts. It's probably the least harmful kind of mining in existence. There isn't that much Nickel in Lithium batteries, compared to other uses.

    Telsa makes its own batteries in the USA, they are aren't shipped to China.

    Charging doesn't have to be 100% renewable to beat conventional cars. EVs beat conventional cars in most of the USA, usually by a LOT.

    ucs-2016-ev-emissions-mpg-map_100673438_l.jpg

    So as it stands, the current equivalent for the US EV fleet is a carbon footprint equal to gas cars that get 80 MPG. The absolute worse case is one of the small Hawaiian islands that likely generates ALL of its electricity via fossil fuel generators, where it is equivalent to 35 MPG. Yeah if you live on that small island, you can get an efficient gas car and have less impact that an EV, but the opposite is true just about everywhere else.

    Not only that, but the grid is getting cleaner every year, so the EV you buy today, will effectively get cleaner over it's lifetime as it gets older.
     
    Last edited: Mar 18, 2019
    D-Money, Talyrius and Wierdo like this.
  6. B00nie

    B00nie [H]ardness Supreme

    Messages:
    7,913
    Joined:
    Nov 1, 2012
    Maybe they would lose less customers if they didn't make their cars so damn ugly.
     
    vegeta535 likes this.
  7. DanHirschberg

    DanHirschberg n00b

    Messages:
    42
    Joined:
    Mar 16, 2019
    That is a very interesting map, Snowdog. Being from Alaska originally, I find it's rating a curiosity.
     
  8. Snowdog

    Snowdog [H]ardForum Junkie

    Messages:
    9,236
    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2006
    It is a bit of surprise, but the the two main sources of electricity are Natural Gas, and then Hydro-Electric, which gives them a fairly decent rating.
    https://www.eia.gov/state/?sid=AK#tabs-4
     
  9. Wierdo

    Wierdo [H]ard|Gawd

    Messages:
    1,776
    Joined:
    Jul 2, 2011
    It's not the rest of the world for sure, but it's the most important state when it comes to car sales: It's constantly a good indication of trends happening to other population-dense states, and it's one of the most in touch with general global trends in other advanced nations.

    Many parts of Europe are actually even ahead - such as Norway with >40 percent EV penetration already, and within the first month of availability we're already seeing the Model 3 at the top of the sales charts in places like Germany, France and Netherlands.

    It gets hard to justify grabbing a Prius at half the MPG and lower performance when you got EVs selling at $35k, and the article in this news piece alludes to this trend (and keep in mind that this was before a $35k model 3 was even an option):
    And this is happening to them in basically one year.
     
    Last edited: Mar 18, 2019
    Talyrius likes this.
  10. DanHirschberg

    DanHirschberg n00b

    Messages:
    42
    Joined:
    Mar 16, 2019

    Honestly this may be incredible wisdom coupled with restraint on the part of Toyota. There is a Japanese saying "Luck exists in the leftovers." Maybe they are biding their time until the infrastructural accomodations meet or exceed the demand for them-imagine a toyota product falling in line with all the others while people wait too long as is palatable to fill up on amps.
     
  11. Snowdog

    Snowdog [H]ardForum Junkie

    Messages:
    9,236
    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2006
    Not really. Toyota practically owned the hybrid market for about a decade, by being a first mover.

    They hoped to do it again, but they failed because they went all in on the wrong technology (Hydrogen).

    Toyota seems to be falling to the "Sunk Cost Fallacy". They put so much money into Hydrogen they can't let go and admit that BEVs are the winning option.
     
    Talyrius and Wierdo like this.
  12. Wierdo

    Wierdo [H]ard|Gawd

    Messages:
    1,776
    Joined:
    Jul 2, 2011
    We'll see. They're not small fries that's for sure, and there are signs they're starting to steer the Titanic slowly off its collision course with a recent Panasonic arrangement.

    But if they can't establish a foothold in China then they're gonna be in big trouble, that country is already accounting for half of global car sales this year, and they're pushing hard into EVs as a government policy. Most industrial nations are not far behind either, legacy vehicles are being banned in city centers to cut down on major smog issues, not a reassuring message to send to consumers looking to buy a new car right?

    It's also possible we may see Chinese EVs swallowing up the market in a similar fashion to what Toyota and gang did in the 70s, who knows. It's a major disruptive period for the auto market, the Germans are starting to adjust in earnest so that's good, hopefully we'll have something to offer as well to stay in the game.

    I guess our ace in the hole is Tesla so far, but it seems they're competing with a ball and chain considering how many states are fighting them tooth and nail to slow down the inevitable march of progress.
     
    Last edited: Mar 18, 2019
    D-Money likes this.
  13. 1Nocturnal101

    1Nocturnal101 Gawd

    Messages:
    521
    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2015
    Fair enough, perhaps if people could drive more reasonably the answer would be eco 3 cylinder smalls displacement 4 cylinder cars then.
     
  14. Zumino Zufeilon

    Zumino Zufeilon Gawd

    Messages:
    911
    Joined:
    Nov 6, 2004
    I honestly figured Hydrogen was going to be the better solution.
    I still do honestly, but damned if BEV's come a LONG way, a lot faster than expected.
    As it stands now, my next car will be a BEV almost certainly.

    There are a lot around which have the "magic" range of 250 miles, Bolt, Leaf 2.0, Tesla 3. Heck, even a BMW i3 is close enough with the range extender engine.
    250 miles on a full charge is for me, 2 round trips to work (75 miles round trip), after a 40% range hit due to cold weather (I live in Michigan, it happens)

    That is what I consider my safe zone, so if the chargers are out/full at work, or I'm a dumbass and forget to plug in at home, I can still get to work and back every day.
     
  15. Vader1975

    Vader1975 Gawd

    Messages:
    822
    Joined:
    May 11, 2016
    You will find the electrical grids in nearly all developed countries cannot take us all switching to “battery”. The UK is already 1% from Max. New no nickle hydrogen prodution techniques are looking to lower the cost dramatically. We will see in the end. Yes 3000 lbs lugged around everywhere wont work longterm
     
  16. Snowdog

    Snowdog [H]ardForum Junkie

    Messages:
    9,236
    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2006
    You will find that they won't be switching over night,and that the grid will adapt as EV takeup continues.

    Sure they can lower Hydrogen production costs some, but since you need at least 3X the input electricity to go the same distance as an EV. 3X the cost is the minimum extra you pay for fueling with Hydrogen. At todays Hydrogen prices it would by about 5X (4 c/mile for EV, 20c/mile for HFCEV). Lots of room for saving till you hit the floor of ONLY 3X times as expensive.

    Good thing no one has 3000lb batteries then.
     
    Last edited: Mar 18, 2019
    Talyrius and Wierdo like this.
  17. DanHirschberg

    DanHirschberg n00b

    Messages:
    42
    Joined:
    Mar 16, 2019
    Oh my, all very insightful responses here. A lot of folks here who know way more than I do; I am clearly in the right place.
     
  18. R_Type

    R_Type Limp Gawd

    Messages:
    215
    Joined:
    Mar 11, 2018
    Talking about putting advanced batteries in ... Just about everything is the hot new craze. Is there enough Lithium in the earth's crust to make all of these and then make their replacements every few years when they're worn out. I don't see it, personally.
     
  19. Snowdog

    Snowdog [H]ardForum Junkie

    Messages:
    9,236
    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2006
    Lithium is not a rare element. IIRC you could make over a billion EVs with currently known reserves. As demand and price pickup, there will be exploration and reserves will increase. If truly desperate it can be extracted from seawater, and of course as it gets more expensive recycling old batteries gets more viable.
     
  20. Zumino Zufeilon

    Zumino Zufeilon Gawd

    Messages:
    911
    Joined:
    Nov 6, 2004

    Yup, not really rare, relatively speaking, it's annoying to get, but not outrageously so.
     
  21. DukenukemX

    DukenukemX [H]ardness Supreme

    Messages:
    4,394
    Joined:
    Jan 30, 2005
    Something I need to point out here is that Hydrogen Fuel Cells require a battery in order to operate. Not as big as a Tesla, but about the same as a Toyota Prius. You can't have regenerative braking without it, plus fuel cells can't throttle their power output like a gas engine can. It just charges the battery while you drive around. Also the auto industry is kinda falling apart right now, so I can't imagine Toyota is just pouring out hybrids off the show room floor. How many Prius batteries would it take to make a Tesla Model 3? I can't see any good excuses other than Toyota just hasn't invested much into EV's. If Tesla can do it with their Gigafactory then Toyota certainly should be able to. Also there are some Toyota's built using Tesla parts cause for a while Toyota did own some of Tesla.

    Make them Toyota or die off like 3DFX.
     
    Wierdo likes this.
  22. nutzo

    nutzo [H]ardness Supreme

    Messages:
    7,379
    Joined:
    Feb 15, 2004
    One of the main reasons people in California give for buying a Tesla or other electric cars, is so they can driving in the carpool lane.
    In some parts of the state, being able to drive in the carpool lane can cut your commute time by more than 50%.
     
  23. DanHirschberg

    DanHirschberg n00b

    Messages:
    42
    Joined:
    Mar 16, 2019

    This is a serious factor not to be overlooked but that 50% number, while I don't disbelieve, I still find Staggering. I was born and raised on a frozen mountainside in Alaska and cannot comprehend people who deal with that kind of a commute. How anyone, ANYONE would put up with that for a paycheck, no matter how good, just blows me away.
     
  24. DanHirschberg

    DanHirschberg n00b

    Messages:
    42
    Joined:
    Mar 16, 2019
    Not to play devil's advocate here....but wouldn't electric cars be easier for big brother to control? I mean couldnt fuel be distilled easier than electricity be produced and stored, from raw materials? Not to open a can of worms in terms of discourse here but I mean in a simple "yes-no" context.........
     
  25. meme

    meme Limp Gawd

    Messages:
    239
    Joined:
    Jul 15, 2004
    All of this assumes that renewable energy can power our electrical grid.

    But it can't directly. You can't take wind power and solar power, which only work at random times or half the time, and power an electric grid normally. You have to have some way of storing that power, and whatever method you use will be expensive and wasteful.

    So the expense and waste of using electricity to create hydrogen fuel and transport it around and burn it in fuel cells has to be compared to the expense and waste of enormous utility scale lithium batteries, if such a thing is feasible, or pumped storage facilities using raised artificial lakes, or huge underground compressed air power storage.
     
  26. NoOther

    NoOther [H]ardness Supreme

    Messages:
    6,479
    Joined:
    May 14, 2008
    That reasoning against Toyota's strategy seems stupid. What did those hybrid owners have before they bought hybrids? I just bought a used hybrid not long ago, I looked into getting an EV, but it was far more expensive. I don't see a problem with Toyota's model, it seems to be working well for them.
     
  27. BigJayDogg3

    BigJayDogg3 [H]ard|Gawd

    Messages:
    1,679
    Joined:
    Jul 21, 2009
    300 miles of stated range is a minimum for consideration, 400-500 miles would be the point I didn't care anymore. Do I need that range all the time? Nope. But last Tuesday between leaving home that morning and returning that evening, needed to drive around 250 miles. In a situation like that, being left with less than 50 miles of range is worrisome.

    In every other vehicle I have available to me, I have at least 300 miles of range and can refill in 5 minutes. An electric car would have required a 20+ minute stop that I really could not have afforded at that time, not to mention that I'd have to go out of the way to find some kind of electric charging station.

    That said, I am very interested in an electric vehicle. In fact, I keep working over numbers to see if I could squeeze in a Model 3 after my truck is paid off...but that also means going into the purchase with cash in hand as I won't have a vehicle to trade as a "down payment.'
     
  28. HVAC

    HVAC n00b

    Messages:
    47
    Joined:
    Sep 25, 2015
    What? *facepalm* Go read a book on DC brushless motor efficiency.
     
    N4CR and DukenukemX like this.
  29. lcpiper

    lcpiper [H]ardForum Junkie

    Messages:
    10,540
    Joined:
    Jul 16, 2008
    But you lose pretty much everything that you gain because producing the cars is in the ICE engines favor, in simple terms, making EVs is dirtier, mostly because of the batteries.

    There is no net gain here which really beggars the question, why are we eating up the special metals and other materials required for EVs if it's not actually all around better?

    Might need those metals for something else later that will make a real difference, not just feel good.

    And if we do transition to something actually better later, will that electric grid buff be foresight, or just a wasteful construct that costs us even more later to yank out? We sure won't be leaving all that copper laying around that's for sure.
     
    Lakados likes this.
  30. Lizard Testes

    Lizard Testes Gawd

    Messages:
    524
    Joined:
    Dec 21, 2016
    Nope.
     
  31. lcpiper

    lcpiper [H]ardForum Junkie

    Messages:
    10,540
    Joined:
    Jul 16, 2008
    Really?

    The whole ball of wax, the entire enchilada, what was the environmental and mineral costs of improving the electric grid to support EVs? Add it all in man.
     
  32. Snowdog

    Snowdog [H]ardForum Junkie

    Messages:
    9,236
    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2006
    Yes Really. The whole enchilada:
    https://www.ucsusa.org/sites/defaul...ner-Cars-from-Cradle-to-Grave-full-report.pdf

     
    Wierdo likes this.
  33. DukenukemX

    DukenukemX [H]ardness Supreme

    Messages:
    4,394
    Joined:
    Jan 30, 2005
    Those batteries can still be recycled, and are also improving.
    Cause you have limited scope on what is "better". It should be said that pretty much all new cars from GM and Ford are going to at least by hybrids, which means they all get batteries. Smaller batteries but batteries. The new Corvette C8 is said to be a rear engine mounted DOHC V8 with a hybrid electric motor.

    The grind isn't going anywhere obviously. How we power it depends on us. Solar, Wind, Nuclear are all valid choices though I'm not a big fan of nuclear. Transmission lines lose about 5% of energy to heat while batteries lose about 2% energy to store it. Bringing a tanker truck to a gas station uses a lot more energy than that.
     
    Wierdo likes this.
  34. lcpiper

    lcpiper [H]ardForum Junkie

    Messages:
    10,540
    Joined:
    Jul 16, 2008

    I don't see anything in here about the emissions and resource expenditures related to expansion of the electrical grid.

    And that report, shit it's got old data in it from 2012-2014. A lot has changed in 5 years, a lot isn't the same.

    It could be far better, it could also be a different picture in areas.
     
  35. Lakados

    Lakados [H]ard|Gawd

    Messages:
    1,620
    Joined:
    Feb 3, 2014
    That comes down to where the batteries are made and materials sources. Coming from China, Africa, or other places lacking environmental standards then yeah it’s filthy. Japan, US, Canada, etc, it’s not nearly as bad and there are strict requirements for cleaning up any mess you do make and disposal of chemicals in a safe way. But that adds a lot of cost, what needs to happen is a big shift in battery tech before EV’s can really take off. As far as upgrades to the Electrical grid, that needs to happen. In Much of the US parts of the grid are upwards of 60 years old hell where I live in Canada we had a 48 hour outage so they could upgrade stuff that hadn’t been touched in over 70 years.
     
  36. Snowdog

    Snowdog [H]ardForum Junkie

    Messages:
    9,236
    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2006
    It's better today. The have fleet average equivalent carbon footprint of EV = 68 MPG gas car, today it is 80 MPG, so payback time would shorten.

    I am not trying to convince you. I realize most posters have their minds made up, just the counterpoint for others reading.
     
  37. zkostik

    zkostik Gawd

    Messages:
    931
    Joined:
    Sep 17, 2009
    That's pretty clear as they are worthless for anything but local driving. Why not just get a hybrid, even SUV's are like into 40mpg and you can go anywhere. I hardly doubt that having an overpriced EV and an ICE car is going to save you money. There are also so many more choices outside of EV, I think they really have a long way to go to be universally useful unless you don't have a family to haul around. Crash tests are only bettle for rollover for most due to center of gravity. I think eventually EV is going to be the future or inevitable way to go but that is likely much further away than most make themselves believe.
     
  38. Dayaks

    Dayaks [H]ardness Supreme

    Messages:
    7,129
    Joined:
    Feb 22, 2012
    That sounds like some kind of Tesla wet dream. Are you sure it had nothing to do with gas prices coming back down from the stratosphere?

    6D4F3EC9-77F3-47A1-A428-3FF75A9DA449.jpeg F151658D-21BB-4E78-9D31-EDA8449E3525.jpeg
     
  39. Hashiriya415

    Hashiriya415 [H]Lite

    Messages:
    105
    Joined:
    Mar 17, 2019
    I just built electric bicycle. Bought a $100 hybrid cannondale and invested $800 in battery/motor. Gets 100 miles average. Cruises 30mph average with pedaling.
    Why can't toyota do something similar, like just build some simple vehicle, low cost. No fancy AC, no power steering. Stamp sheet metal using an existing chassis design that can fit 50kwh batteries. Sell for $20K. Done
     
  40. Nafensoriel

    Nafensoriel Limp Gawd

    Messages:
    230
    Joined:
    Nov 23, 2015
    Can we please stop pretending that EV batteries are remotely efficient? They might be power efficient but that is a singular and poor metric. For things that move you also have to consider energy to weight ratios and in that category batteries are one of the least efficient things in existence.

    Hybrids make more senses in the long run simply because you get everything all in one place. Switch the liquid fuel to something like methanol and you automatically cut emissions by 75%. Go the ship route(liquid fuel>electrical gen>eletrical motor) and you can get even higher efficiencies for less money and effectively equal if not higher ranges than ICE.