Time to Take Moore's Law is Dead Nvidia Article Seriously...

I think saying that stock would be low is kind of a given and isn't saying much at all. The point he made about prices "ballooning" in October (the word he used) hasn't really happened. The way I interpreted what he was saying was that the actual MSRP of cards (not just the $700 price but in general) was going to be raised by AIBs, which is not what happened. Instead, what did happen is AIBs prioritizing production and sale of higher-end models with an MSRP of over $700, because the margins are likely better. This isn't prices "ballooning", the MSRP of those higher-end cards was always what it was going to be, just supply on those cards is better than the lower-end cheaper models due to AIBs wanting to make higher margins on them. So I guess you could say ultimately what happened was that people are buying cards at higher than $700, but the prices didn't magically go up, or even change MSRP on any of the already-existing card SKUs. So the result is the same, but not for the reasons MLID suggested.

I don't think we are going to see a massive supply drop in the next two weeks, either, and he was pretty adamant about that being the case. But I guess we still have two weeks to see if that happens or not.
 
I would think AMD should be slightly easier to obtain even with limited stock. There is a distinct group of people who will only buy Nvidia for one reason or another. Also, there is another group that want to see good drivers available before they pull the trigger. Nobody likes to be a beta tester.
The groups that only buy NVidia are yet another reason NVidia should have waited to launch. They aren’t going to lose those customers, they aren’t going to pickup any remaining diehard AMD people, so all they have left to lose are those that will buy AMD after being frustrated with a paper launch.
 
The groups that only buy NVidia are yet another reason NVidia should have waited to launch. They aren’t going to lose those customers, they aren’t going to pickup any remaining diehard AMD people, so all they have left to lose are those that will buy AMD after being frustrated with a paper launch.
How are they going to lose the group that only buys Nvidia...if that group only buys Nvidia?
 
I think saying that stock would be low is kind of a given and isn't saying much at all. The point he made about prices "ballooning" in October (the word he used) hasn't really happened. The way I interpreted what he was saying was that the actual MSRP of cards (not just the $700 price but in general) was going to be raised by AIBs, which is not what happened. Instead, what did happen is AIBs prioritizing production and sale of higher-end models with an MSRP of over $700, because the margins are likely better. This isn't prices "ballooning", the MSRP of those higher-end cards was always what it was going to be, just supply on those cards is better than the lower-end cheaper models due to AIBs wanting to make higher margins on them. So I guess you could say ultimately what happened was that people are buying cards at higher than $700, but the prices didn't magically go up, or even change MSRP on any of the already-existing card SKUs. So the result is the same, but not for the reasons MLID suggested.

I don't think we are going to see a massive supply drop in the next two weeks, either, and he was pretty adamant about that being the case. But I guess we still have two weeks to see if that happens or not.

I think his point was that you aren't going to see many $699 cards but you'll see $800+ cards. We've also seen Dell sell out of ~$750 MSI Ventus cards at a price of $900 from their storefront. He's said all along that the margins were low at $699, and AIBs would make cards with more margin built in. I think we're seeing that. I don't think he gave specific context to what he meant by "ballooned." But when Nvidia's card is $699, and the only card I can find to buy is $800+, my buy in cost ballooned by $100 over what I was anticipating. And he's been dead on about the mentality. People will generally overpay for whatever they can get their hands on. I wanted a $699 FE card. I couldn't find one. I "settled" on a slightly used EVGA XC3 which I only had to pay $100 over MSRP for (I probably should have waited for Big Navi, but oh well).

He's pretty adamant that there is no issue with Samsung yields, etc. But something is clearly holding up the works as there are no cards to buy, and they already control the bulk of the GDDR6X supply. Something is going on...

I'd even say he was accurate if there is a large 300k+ drop by the middle of November instead of late October. Shipping delays happen. 300k units is a couple overseas freight containers, and then clearing customs, etc. Although, I think you'd hear more rumors of this though if it were true. He also seemed adamant that the 3070 would be in relative higher supply, and I haven't seen any indication that's going to be the case.
 
I think his point was that you aren't going to see many $699 cards but you'll see $800+ cards.
That isn't what was said, though. He specifically said prices would "balloon", indicating that AIBs were going to raise prices in October. That has not happened.


I'd even say he was accurate if there is a large 300k+ drop by the middle of November instead of late October. Shipping delays happen. 300k units is a couple overseas freight containers, and then clearing customs, etc. Although, I think you'd hear more rumors of this though if it were true. He also seemed adamant that the 3070 would be in relative higher supply, and I haven't seen any indication that's going to be the case.
Yeah...sorry, he doesn't get to be right if we just keeps pushing back the date. Of course eventually there is going to be stock, but if it's not by early November then he was frankly just wrong.
 
That isn't what was said, though. He specifically said prices would "balloon", indicating that AIBs were going to raise prices in October. That has not happened.



Yeah...sorry, he doesn't get to be right if we just keeps pushing back the date. Of course eventually there is going to be stock, but if it's not by early November then he was frankly just wrong.

You're just using semantics to make your point. He didn't give context to "Balloon." AIBs ARE raising prices by only selling you higher margin cards.

I think there is wiggle room on overseas shipments especially when you are making statements 6 weeks early. If there is no stock for months that's one thing but two weeks either way isn't changing much.
 
My contacts in retail are selling mostly the bottom end cards; not the higher ones. Asus TUF, Gigabyte cards, all the "lowest" price ones seem to be the ones coming in the most with most back orders in those groups being fulfilled in approximately 2.5 weeks. My buddy caved in and ordered a backordered card, he was number 17 at the local store, he's now number 11.

MLID doesn't get to be right if the reality doesn't line up. Take a look at some of the recent stock pictures posted in some stores; all the lowest tier and priced cards.
 
You're just using semantics to make your point. He didn't give context to "Balloon." AIBs ARE raising prices by only selling you higher margin cards.
If you want to talk semantics, AIBs aren't raising prices at all. They are selling you cards that were always going to be $750, $800, etc. The only difference is that they are producing and shipping more of the higher-margin cards, because of course they are.

If you want to make the argument that they are not selling $699 cards, sure. That is valid because most AIBs either 1) don't have a $699 card in the first place or 2) are producing barely any of them right now. But that is not what MLID said.
 
My contacts in retail are selling mostly the bottom end cards; not the higher ones. Asus TUF, Gigabyte cards, all the "lowest" price ones seem to be the ones coming in the most with most back orders in those groups being fulfilled in approximately 2.5 weeks. My buddy caved in and ordered a backordered card, he was number 17 at the local store, he's now number 11.

MLID doesn't get to be right if the reality doesn't line up. Take a look at some of the recent stock pictures posted in some stores; all the lowest tier and priced cards.

Well that makes sense seeing as there hasn't been a Strix ROG release and the Aorus cards were just released maybe a week ago.

EVGA who has had pretty much all cards up and down there lineup in stock at one point now only seems to make the FTW3.
 
My contacts in retail are selling mostly the bottom end cards; not the higher ones. Asus TUF, Gigabyte cards, all the "lowest" price ones seem to be the ones coming in the most with most back orders in those groups being fulfilled in approximately 2.5 weeks. My buddy caved in and ordered a backordered card, he was number 17 at the local store, he's now number 11.

MLID doesn't get to be right if the reality doesn't line up. Take a look at some of the recent stock pictures posted in some stores; all the lowest tier and priced cards.
I would say EVGA is the exception to this because they are clearly making more higher sku I cards. Just looked at Jacobs tweets about what sku the emails are going out for and he has done 8 for ftw and 3 for XC cards.
 
My contacts in retail are selling mostly the bottom end cards; not the higher ones. Asus TUF, Gigabyte cards, all the "lowest" price ones seem to be the ones coming in the most with most back orders in those groups being fulfilled in approximately 2.5 weeks. My buddy caved in and ordered a backordered card, he was number 17 at the local store, he's now number 11.

MLID doesn't get to be right if the reality doesn't line up. Take a look at some of the recent stock pictures posted in some stores; all the lowest tier and priced cards.
Wow! Your contact, sounds familiar, are we suppose to believe you vice MLID? I have Auto Notify at Best Buy for a number of 3080's, lower cost versions for over 3 weeks => GOT ZERO NOTICE on everyone of those. Also 3090's, don't know what retailer your talking about but BestBuy is suppose to be Nvidia main outlet for their cards. Newegg, I think I also have a few, no notice as well. Nvidia is a lying shitshow and waste of time so far. Now to be frank kinda glad I didn't get a 3080 since AMD looks to be way more promising, will know in a few days.
 
If you want to talk semantics, AIBs aren't raising prices at all. They are selling you cards that were always going to be $750, $800, etc. The only difference is that they are producing and shipping more of the higher-margin cards, because of course they are.

If you want to make the argument that they are not selling $699 cards, sure. That is valid because most AIBs either 1) don't have a $699 card in the first place or 2) are producing barely any of them right now. But that is not what MLID said.

Actually that's exactly what he said. He said you wouldn't be able to find $699 cards. He said the margin was too low at that price point and they would only produce higher margin cards. You are insisting that his use of the word balloon means that a $699 card now would cost $750 instead balloon could just as easily mean that the average price so to speak is significantly higher because they are only producing higher margin cards.

From what I understood 20% of their cards were supposed to be at or around $699 per NVIDIA. I don't see that really happening either so the price is ballooning.
 
I would just like to add....There really isn't even a point to buy a higher priced 3080/3090 since even when overclocked you MIGHT get 3-5% extra performance? Really isn't even a point to buy a FTW3, or Ventus etc. The problem is that is usually the only kind of cards you can buy.

don't get me wrong I would of loved to buy a $699, or $1499 card. But shit it's so hard to even get a card people will pay a premium.
 
Actually that's exactly what he said. He said you wouldn't be able to find $699 cards. He said the margin was too low at that price point and they would only produce higher margin cards. You are insisting that his use of the word balloon means that a $699 card now would cost $750 instead balloon could just as easily mean that the average price so to speak is significantly higher because they are only producing higher margin cards.

From what I understood 20% of their cards were supposed to be at or around $699 per NVIDIA. I don't see that really happening either so the price is ballooning.

This is what the actual article says:
Ampere demand will outstrip the initial stock, and so the price will balloon by October.
Nothing about that indicates to me that he is talking about AIBs simply selling above-$699 cards at MSRP. In fact, he does mention earlier in the article that AIBs will sell versions of the cards higher than the $699 MSRP, but that's a non-revelation given that this happens every single generation. Higher-end cards with higher-end coolers/clocks sell for higher prices than the base models. This is nothing new and frankly expected.

Let's not forget he also wrote this:
Both Founders and AIB cards will be in short supply in September, but AIB cards will stuff the channels by the end of October.
We got 5 days left, let's see it.

Except...no, because in a later video he changed that to late October / early November. It's easy to be right if you keep moving the goalposts.
 
This is what the actual article says:

Nothing about that indicates to me that he is talking about AIBs simply selling above-$699 cards at MSRP. In fact, he does mention earlier in the article that AIBs will sell versions of the cards higher than the $699 MSRP, but that's a non-revelation given that this happens every single generation. Higher-end cards with higher-end coolers/clocks sell for higher prices than the base models. This is nothing new and frankly expected.

Let's not forget he also wrote this:

We got 5 days left, let's see it.

Except...no, because in a later video he changed that to late October / early November. It's easy to be right if you keep moving the goalposts.

By stuffing the channels he could of been talking to the upcoming 3070 launch which is in what 4-5 days? Guess we will see.
 
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Let’s see if he’ll be right. But I’m skeptical.
 
If no cards actually show up at MSRP I could care less if he says balloon, increase, swell or whatever.

The problem is still the same. The MSRP doesn't match reality.
Are you talking about the $699 price? The term "MSRP" keeps getting thrown around, but people don't seem to be using it correctly.

The MSRP of the FTW3 Ultra from EVGA is $809.99. Even though it's over the $699 price, it's still being sold "at MSRP", as are most cards through most reputable channels.
 
Are you talking about the $699 price? The term "MSRP" keeps getting thrown around, but people don't seem to be using it correctly.

The MSRP of the FTW3 Ultra from EVGA is $809.99. Even though it's over the $699 price, it's still being sold "at MSRP", as are most cards through most reputable channels.
They could EASILY sell the card as a $699 model since all the 3080's and 3090 basically perform the same. The AIB's have us all fooled with these models that are higher clocked and higher priced when they hardly add any performance.

They basically have us all fooled! I mean hell the $699 Asus TUF gaming performs exactly the same as a $809 EVGA FTW3 model....
 
They could EASILY sell the card as a $699 model since all the 3080's and 3090 basically perform the same. The AIB's have us all fooled with these models that are higher clocked and higher priced when they hardly add any performance.

They basically have us all fooled! I mean hell the $699 Asus TUF gaming performs exactly the same as a $809 EVGA FTW3 model....
True, there is not a lot of performance difference between them. It is there, but it's not much. Mostly you are paying for a larger/quieter cooler. But again, this has always been the case with AIBs, they release several models of varying qualities for different prices.
 
Are you talking about the $699 price? The term "MSRP" keeps getting thrown around, but people don't seem to be using it correctly.

The MSRP of the FTW3 Ultra from EVGA is $809.99. Even though it's over the $699 price, it's still being sold "at MSRP", as are most cards through most reputable channels.
Nvidia set the 3080 standard, ram amounts/speed, frequencies, what drivers etc. and they set a MSRP, recommended price as well (unless it is all smoke and mirrors and really not sincere like on the 2080Ti). Where are the 3080's at $699? Nvidia designated, promoted, promised, advertised? People were promised $699 and get more disgruntled when that is a big fat lie. I don't care about the higher priced cards that really do not perform much different than the $699 ones. Why would I pay or someone else for something more for virtually nothing? Nvidia utterly failed to allow the manufacturers to make $699 cards, give them enough GPU's/ram at a price they could do that at. A token quantity from Nvidia without earnestly meeting a mediocre supply is really just shows what Nvidia thinks of their buyers and users, as something they can manipulate, fool, lock in. From my view Nvidia is many times worst than Intel and their anti-consumer methods.
 
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Nvidia set the 3080 standard, ram amounts/speed, frequencies, what drivers etc. and they set a MSRP, recommended price as well (unless it is all smoke and mirrors and really not sincere like on the 2080Ti). Where are the 3080's at $699? Nvidia designated, promoted, promised, advertised? People were promised $699 and get more disgruntled when that is a big fat lie. I don't care about the higher priced cards that really do not perform not much different that the $699. Why would I pay or someone else for something more for virtually nothing? Nvidia utterly failed to allow the manufacturers to make $699 cards, give them enough GPU's/ram at a price they could do that at. A token quantity from Nvidia without earnestly meeting a mediocre supply is really just shows what Nvidia thinks of their buyers and users, as something they can manipulate, fool, lock in. From my view Nvidia is many times worst then even Intel and their anti-consumer methods.
Didn't the exact same thing happen with the $999 2080 Tis?

And sure, your feelings toward nVidia are valid, I feel similar in many ways. But it doesn't make MLID right about this.
 
Didn't the exact same thing happen with the $999 2080 Tis?

And sure, your feelings toward nVidia are valid, I feel similar in many ways. But it doesn't make MLID right about this.
I look at MLID as having a few sources, some thought and a discussion of the findings. Not a prophet where 100% will come true. It was a point in time with information. Nvidia plans will evolve change as conditions change so I do not expect 100% exact results from what was discussed. If that was the case he would probably be winning lotteries and highly invested in the stock market. Thus far Nvidia utterly failed for the most part in having people interested with money the ability to upgrade and have wasted their time. I hope those who wasted their time learned a lesson dealing with a partner which are untrustworthy, misleads or downright lies. Sometimes it is just better to wait until the dust settles on tech. AMD has a chance to come clean but if they are upfront on if they can have a good supply chain and pricing -> people I will think just flock to the more reliable partner. Now I bet AMD is probably amazed at the drought Nvidia has made with Ampere lol, may not be possible for them to just suddenly supply the market share of next generation of GPU's no matter how hard they try due to Nvidia failure.
 
Didn't the exact same thing happen with the $999 2080 Tis?

And sure, your feelings toward nVidia are valid, I feel similar in many ways. But it doesn't make MLID right about this.

If I recall, for a time a lot of enthusiasts were disappointed that the only models of 2080Tis available were the basic $999 (+/- $20) ones with crappy coolers.
 
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True, there is not a lot of performance difference between them. It is there, but it's not much. Mostly you are paying for a larger/quieter cooler. But again, this has always been the case with AIBs, they release several models of varying qualities for different prices.
O yeah totally true, but usually there is way more room for performance with this higher quality models. This time around there is hardly ANY performance gained....
 
If I recall, for a time a lot of enthusiasts were disappointed that the only models of 2080Tis available were the basic $999 (+/- $20) ones with crappy coolers.
I don't recall the $999 2080Ti models being readily available, only one I know of was the EVGA Black. I was going to get one, never seem to be in stock, then heard of the unending horror stories dealing with them making me conclude they were not worth it, (tin foil hat here) maybe even planned by Nvidia for the negative reviews so the higher priced ones were only be looked for, it was not a product that was earnestly made.
 
I don't recall the $999 2080Ti models being readily available, only one I know of was the EVGA Black. I was going to get one, never seem to be in stock, then heard of the unending horror stories dealing with them making me conclude they were not worth it, (tin foil hat here) maybe even planned by Nvidia for the negative reviews so the higher priced ones were only be looked for, it was not a product that was earnestly made.

I may be mistaken, then.
 
The rush to launch these cards point out as being childish ass Jensen just wanting to say I was first. There was no need for them to do this. We wouldn't have known about the shitty combo of spcaps and initial drivers, they would have had stock and contrary to what some believe they would've sold every card still even if they came in second because the true gamer market is small compared to their mind share that believes they are the best anyway.
 
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They could EASILY sell the card as a $699 model since all the 3080's and 3090 basically perform the same. The AIB's have us all fooled with these models that are higher clocked and higher priced when they hardly add any performance.

They basically have us all fooled! I mean hell the $699 Asus TUF gaming performs exactly the same as a $809 EVGA FTW3 model....
After looking at all the 3080s and 3090s, and their reviews/user reports this is definitely true. Most of the cards boost within ~25 Mhz of each other. The biggest difference between the cards are acoustics and thermals.

You can pay $100-200 more for “premium” cards with higher power targets. But the remaining minimal OC headroom on these Ampere cards require so much extra power for minimal performance gains. You’re talking spending $100-200 more so your card can draw 100w more power for what...3-5% more performance? No thanks.

I’m watercooling so I went with the cheapest 3080 with a good selection of waterblocks to choose from. On the plus side it’s also from EVGA with whom I’ve always had the best customer service experiences with.
 
The rush to launch these cards point out as being childish ass Jensen just wanting to say I was first. There was no need for them to do this. We wouldn't have known about the shitty combo of spcaps and initial drivers, they would have had stock and contrary to what some believe they would've sold every card still even if they came in second because the true gamer market is small compared to their mind share that believes they are the best anyway.
It was timed for investors - Q3.
 
Are you talking about the $699 price? The term "MSRP" keeps getting thrown around, but people don't seem to be using it correctly.

The MSRP of the FTW3 Ultra from EVGA is $809.99. Even though it's over the $699 price, it's still being sold "at MSRP", as are most cards through most reputable channels.
Yes. I'm talking about the $699 one. So far anyone that has purchased one here has paid considerably more than $699. Some cards should sell for that price. If none of them do then the cost of the card isn't $699 since none exist at that price.

I could care less about MLID. Personally I find him annoying. But, if there are no cards that sell for that price (Not even Nvidia sold them for that price) then obviously $699 isn't the price for the cards and it's merely meant to entice buyers. It is what it is, and no amount of but this if not for that is going to change it. He said there was a $50 rebate keeping the cards at $699 and now when you look at the list of cards most of them sell about $50 above. So u can dislike him all ya want but it is what it is.
 
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Yes. I'm talking about the $699 one. So far anyone that has purchased one here has paid considerably more than $699. Some cards should sell for that price. If none of them do then the cost of the card isn't $699 since none exist at that price.

I could care less about MLID. Personally I find him annoying. But, if there are no cards that sell for that price (Not even Nvidia sold them for that price) then obviously $699 isn't the price for the cards and it's merely meant to entice buyers. It is what it is, and no amount of but this if not for that is going to change it. He said there was a $50 rebate keeping the cards at $699 and now when you look at the list of cards most of them sell about $50 above. So u can dislike him all ya want but it is what it is.
Attached again, there are sku's for $699 saying a blanket statement that any that has purchased one paid more is not the truth its emotion. These cards are not available at any quantity that justifies anything more than paper launch. The $699 cards(3 models) have been in stock just as frequently as the other almost non existent stock alerts of the higher cards. EVGA is the one were you can clearly see those chose production on the higher cost cards. My order below is from Oct 2nd for $699. It came almost damn near drop shipped from Asus to Amazon's warehouse with a sticker saying it was 1 of 206 on onside and my address label on the other. If you are looking for a $699 card and you miss the drops or aren't using a discord channel but instead your own distill you need to retune it because the cards are being sold in a little worse availablity but still weekly there are drops for $699 cards.

amazon.JPG
 
Attached again, there are sku's for $699 saying a blanket statement that any that has purchased one paid more is not the truth its emotion. These cards are not available at any quantity that justifies anything more than paper launch. The $699 cards(3 models) have been in stock just as frequently as the other almost non existent stock alerts of the higher cards. EVGA is the one were you can clearly see those chose production on the higher cost cards. My order below is from Oct 2nd for $699. It came almost damn near drop shipped from Asus to Amazon's warehouse with a sticker saying it was 1 of 206 on onside and my address label on the other. If you are looking for a $699 card and you miss the drops or aren't using a discord channel but instead your own distill you need to retune it because the cards are being sold in a little worse availablity but still weekly there are drops for $699 cards.

View attachment 293042
I'm basing what I'm saying on today. He said that initially the cards sold for $699. OK. But it's not Oct 2nd anymore. It's Oct 27th. Here is the entire list from NewEgg:
https://www.newegg.com/p/pl?d=rtx+3080
Out of 36 cards there are 2 being sold at $699. 2 cards that's it. So for anyone who shops NewEgg you've got 2 SKUs for the entire market looking for that card at that price at that retailer. I'm sorry but 2 out of 36? That's nonsense.

I am glad you got yours though. GJ
 
I'm basing what I'm saying on today. He said that initially the cards sold for $699. OK. But it's not Oct 2nd anymore. It's Oct 27th. Here is the entire list from NewEgg:
https://www.newegg.com/p/pl?d=rtx+3080
Out of 36 cards there are 2 being sold at $699. 2 cards that's it. So for anyone who shops NewEgg you've got 2 SKUs for the entire market looking for that card at that price at that retailer. I'm sorry but 2 out of 36? That's nonsense.

I am glad you got yours though. GJ
There were only 3 skus for $699, Newegg raised the $699 sku today because there was a drop yesterday for $699. None of the cards are in stock , every week there are drops at least one sku @ $699 has been in stock at this price. 2 out of 36 shows its just not as profitable as the other cards so why should I make more of those cards? Do the higher cards bring more to the table not to me but to others that wont the extra RGB/PCIE/Coolers are there for them to choose. If you want a card you will just have to show patience to get past this paper launch we are still in, if you want a card at the $699 price point you need even more patience because that level of card isn't their highest priority. My card from Amazon was originally dated for Dec, I've never seen them sell something with a backorder date that long. These are luxury items there is no need for them to make sure all level are stocked equivalently. I would bet they are making 5 higher priced cards for every 1 card that sells for $699. If you don't like the business model they are running you have a choice don't buy one. But the facts are they still sell them for $699 even if its only 2, good luck even seeing the higher priced cards in stock right now.
 
There were only 3 skus for $699, Newegg raised the $699 sku today because there was a drop yesterday for $699. None of the cards are in stock , every week there are drops at least one sku @ $699 has been in stock at this price. 2 out of 36 shows its just not as profitable as the other cards so why should I make more of those cards? Do the higher cards bring more to the table not to me but to others that wont the extra RGB/PCIE/Coolers are there for them to choose. If you want a card you will just have to show patience to get past this paper launch we are still in, if you want a card at the $699 price point you need even more patience because that level of card isn't their highest priority. My card from Amazon was originally dated for Dec, I've never seen them sell something with a backorder date that long. These are luxury items there is no need for them to make sure all level are stocked equivalently. I would bet they are making 5 higher priced cards for every 1 card that sells for $699. If you don't like the business model they are running you have a choice don't buy one. But the facts are they still sell them for $699 even if its only 2, good luck even seeing the higher priced cards in stock right now.
I'm not the one who set that price. Nor did anyone else for that matter. I did try to buy initially on release date but encountered prices $200+ above or out of stock. Neither am I about to do. So I'm pretty much waiting to see what happens after AMD releases. I figure if AMD is competitive then that will change things across the board.
 
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