Time to Take Moore's Law is Dead Nvidia Article Seriously...

MacLeod said:
No, but bots wiping out every card in stock across the planet in about 30 seconds is new.
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I agree, but where are all the cards? Bots aren't for consumers. They are for resellers. You would think there would be pre-ordered cards all over auction sites. I think there are less than 100 legitimate Founders cards on ebay right now. This points to a massive lack of stock to begin with.
 
kirbyrj said:
I agree, but where are all the cards? Bots aren't for consumers. They are for resellers. You would think there would be pre-ordered cards all over auction sites. I think there are less than 100 legitimate Founders cards on ebay right now. This points to a massive lack of stock to begin with.
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That is true. It seems like it was a perfect storm of very low initial stock and the POS scalpers.
 
RamonGTP said:
Ive only seem two AIBs, one was this and it was better on every metric, the other was an entry level EVGA that was marginally worse. Gamers Nexus is also saying improved cooling solutions are coming from AIBs. From where I’m sitting, the only thing he got right was that it was going to be a limited supply, which anyone would have guessed without any sources at all.
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You just proved the point without even realizing it... Yes, the "entry level", aka one near msrp isn't as good.... The more expensive ones are as good, but not MSRP. Better solutions are coming I agree, but it for MSRP ;).
 
Asus already has their ROG card listed (not yet available) for $850 (10GB) , I'm assuming we see a $770-$850 range for the 10GB.
 
Ready4Dis said:
You just proved the point without even realizing it... Yes, the "entry level", aka one near msrp isn't as good.... The more expensive ones are as good, but not MSRP. Better solutions are coming I agree, but it for MSRP ;).
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I gave a sample size of one @msrp and the difference was about 1% hardly making the point When the point made was youll pay more for something worse. Not more for something better. ;)
 
RamonGTP said:
I gave a sample size of one @msrp and the difference was about 1% hardly making the point When the point made was youll pay more for something worse. Not more for something better. ;)
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That wasn't the point. The point was at the same price you will generally get less card than the FE card. at the same price as the FE you will either get a sub standard cooling solution or a poorly binned GPU.

Nobody is saying that if you pay more you won't get more. You just won't get as big a bang for the buck as with the FE card generally speaking.
 
kirbyrj said:
That wasn't the point. The point was at the same price you will generally get less card than the FE card. at the same price as the FE you will either get a sub standard cooling solution or a poorly binned GPU.

Nobody is saying that if you pay more you won't get more. You just won't get as big a bang for the buck as with the FE card generally speaking.
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That is NOT what MLID said and not what you and I have been debating for the last several days. New releases always sell out, nothing new, better cards always cost more, nothing new. Literally the only difference here is that nvidia built a slightly better FE card than they have in the past and suddenly you think there’s some mischievous deeds going on to separate you from your money.



There was not an artificial supply constraint like MLID said and you’ve been repeating. nvidia said supply was on par with other launches, independently confirmed by partners. I’ll take GNs word over MLID any day.
 
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5150Joker said:
I’m torn because I know Big Navi is going to be great but I also want that 3090 because the e-peen is looking a little flaccid. Hmm, guess it’ll depend on what a clusterfuck the 3090 release ends up being.
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I just don't see Nvidia fixing any issues they had within a week. You'll have less prospective buyers in theory, but you'll also have less cards available.
 
RamonGTP said:
That is NOT what MLID said and not what you and I have been debating for the last several days. New releases always sell out, nothing new, better cards always cost more, nothing mew. Literally the only difference here is that nvidia built a slightly better FE card than they have in the past and suddenly you think there’s some mischievous deeds going on to separate you from your money.



There was not an artificial supply constraint like MLID said and you’ve been repeating. nvidia said supply was on par with other launches, independently confirmed by partners. I’ll take GNs word over MLID any day.
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If that's what you think, you clearly didn't read the fucking article in the OP and you're misrepresenting what I said. The key is the $699 price point meant as a good will gesture after the Turing price fiasco. MLID is pointing out that the $699 price point is illusory for the most part. FE cards will be constantly sold out because Nvidia doesn't want to sell them due to the low margins. It doesn't matter if their launch inventory is the same as other launches because they won't make as many FE cards to sell to consumers to replenish the supply channel. AIB $699 cards aren't going to be as good as the FE cards as they will have generally poorer cooling and lower binned GPUs, and if you want better cooling or more memory, the price is going to be a lot higher. Nvidia isn't going to sell the 20GB cards direct because they don't want to make those either. They want to hang their hat on the $699 price when the average price of 3080 cards is probably going to be in the $850 range after you factor in the 20GB cards and the AIBs with better cooling.

The real rebuttal to the artificial supply constraint is Nvidia having a steady stream of $699 FE cards available, not Zotac selling a POS 3080 for $699.
 
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kirbyrj said:
If that's what you think, you clearly didn't read the fucking article in the OP and you're misrepresenting what I said. The key is the $699 price point meant as a good will gesture after the Turing price fiasco. MLID is pointing out that the $699 price point is illusory for the most part. FE cards will be constantly sold out because Nvidia doesn't want to sell them due to the low margins. It doesn't matter if their launch inventory is the same as other launches because they won't make as many to sell to consumers to replenish the channels. AIB $699 cards aren't going to be as good as the FE cards as they will have generally poorer cooling and lower binned GPUs, and if you want better cooling or more memory, the price is going to be a lot higher. Nvidia isn't going to sell the 20GB cards direct because they don't want to make those either. They want to hang their hat on the $699 price when the average price of 3080 cards is probably going to be in the $850 range after you factor in the 20GB cards and the AIBs with better cooling.

The real rebuttal to the artificial supply constraint is Nvidia having a steady stream of $699 FE cards available, not Zotac selling a POS 3080 for $699.
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Omg, someone actually read it before commenting, lol. This is pretty much exactly what the article says :). I gave up trying to explain it to people who didn't bother to read or process it. Even for limited a stock release, this was a cluster. I'm expecting AMD's launch to be llimited also, but hopefully not this bad. I can't even imagine how bad the 3090 with it's super high binning is going to be, lol. This set a new standard, even compared to nvidia's prior limited releases. Guess we'll see how it plays out over the next few weeks/months, I'm sure it'll get a little better, but I'm just wondering how long before the prices start creeping up. Seems like plenty of people will be waiting to see how RDNA2 performs whether they planned to do so or not.
 
kirbyrj said:
If that's what you think, you clearly didn't read the fucking article in the OP and you're misrepresenting what I said. The key is the $699 price point meant as a good will gesture after the Turing price fiasco. MLID is pointing out that the $699 price point is illusory for the most part. FE cards will be constantly sold out because Nvidia doesn't want to sell them due to the low margins. It doesn't matter if their launch inventory is the same as other launches because they won't make as many FE cards to sell to consumers to replenish the supply channel. AIB $699 cards aren't going to be as good as the FE cards as they will have generally poorer cooling and lower binned GPUs, and if you want better cooling or more memory, the price is going to be a lot higher. Nvidia isn't going to sell the 20GB cards direct because they don't want to make those either. They want to hang their hat on the $699 price when the average price of 3080 cards is probably going to be in the $850 range after you factor in the 20GB cards and the AIBs with better cooling.

The real rebuttal to the artificial supply constraint is Nvidia having a steady stream of $699 FE cards available, not Zotac selling a POS 3080 for $699.
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Shifting goal posts again. Now the $800 cards are gonna be 20GB models with better cooling when initially you said they would be for AIB cards inferior to the FE both in terms of not only cooling, but binning as well.
 
RamonGTP said:
Shifting goal posts again. Now the $800 cards are gonna be 20GB models with better cooling when initially you said they would be for AIB cards inferior to the FE both in terms of not only cooling, but binning as well.
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I said the average price would climb up. There are already 10GB cards at $800 (EVGA FTW, Asus Strix). A 20GB FTW/Strix card is going to be $1000. I think the average price is going to come in around $850 when you factor in the larger memory and the extra cooling. Obviously, AVERAGE, means that the 10GB cards are going to be under $850 and the 20GB cards are going to be over $850 :rolleyes:.

Edit: That "average" number is just made up by me, not anything MLID said or anything like that. I think the regular run of the mill AIB card is going to be $750-775. The high end ones are $775-800+. The budget versions are going to be $699. The 20GB versions are going to have a $150-200 premium.
 
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kirbyrj said:
The real rebuttal to the artificial supply constraint is Nvidia having a steady stream of $699 FE cards available, not Zotac selling a POS 3080 for $699.
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What's the definition of a POS 3080? 1% slower?

I can hear the goal posts creaking.
 
kirbyrj said:
I said the average price would climb up. There are already 10GB cards at $800 (EVGA FTW, Asus Strix). A 20GB FTW/Strix card is going to be $1000. I think the average price is going to come in around $850 when you factor in the larger memory and the extra cooling. Obviously, AVERAGE, means that the 10GB cards are going to be under $850 and the 20GB cards are going to be over $850 :rolleyes:.

Edit: That "average" number is just made up by me, not anything MLID said or anything like that. I think the regular run of the mill AIB card is going to be $750-775. The high end ones are $775-800+. The budget versions are going to be $699. The 20GB versions are going to have a $150-200 premium.
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“average price will go up”

Ok Nostradamus. MSRP is the floor, average can only go up from there. Again nothing new.

You are shifting goal posts. With each reply you’re targeting more and more the higher end AIBs with 20GB with your argument and less so inferior cooling, inferior binning, 10GB AIB cards selling for >MSRP which is where you started on this path of nonsense.
 
RamonGTP said:
“average price will go up”

Ok Nostradamus. MSRP is the floor, average can only go up from there. Again nothing new.

You are shifting goal posts. With each reply you’re targeting more and more the higher end AIBs with 20GB with your argument and less so inferior cooling, inferior binning, 10GB AIB cards selling for >MSRP which is where you started on this path of nonsense.
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Well we will see won't we. My benchmark is FE cards in stock regularly. Otherwise it certainly seems like MLID was correct.
 
MLID is now claiming that AIBs are getting $50 back now but that rebate will expire in October.

9/16/20 Update: As covered in a recent MLID video, I have been made aware of an ~$50 Rebate being provided to AIBs during September for each card sold. This expires in October.
 
MangoSeed said:
MLID didn't make any claims about my personal brand preferences.
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Fine. Then insert your preferred brand and lowest cost card. Would you rather a FE card or an EVGA black? This is just an example.
 
kirbyrj said:
Well we will see won't we. My benchmark is FE cards in stock regularly. Otherwise it certainly seems like MLID was correct.
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MLID made far more claims (that you’ve doubled and tripled down on) than merely FE cards being unavailable. But you’re right. We’ll see.
 
MangoSeed said:
MLID is now claiming that AIBs are getting $50 back now but that rebate will expire in October.

9/16/20 Update: As covered in a recent MLID video, I have been made aware of an ~$50 Rebate being provided to AIBs during September for each card sold. This expires in October.
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Sweclockers mentioned AIB rebates in their review. Expires mid Oct.
I believe they said it was $50-100.
 
kirbyrj said:
Fine. Then insert your preferred brand and lowest cost card. Would you rather a FE card or an EVGA black? This is just an example.
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I'm not following. Did MLID claim something about people's preferred brands?
 
RamonGTP said:
MLID made far more claims (that you’ve doubled and tripled down on) than merely FE cards being unavailable. But you’re right. We’ll see.
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Yep, it's summarized nicely in the article.

Therefore, I think this is Nvidia’s Ultimate Play: Intentionally causing an initial dearth of Ampere stock, allowing “supply and demand” to inflate the street price of Ampere when those beautiful $699 Founders cards instantly sell out, and then ultimately forcing AIBs to sell most of their models well above MSRP due to the required BOM Cost-Downs…that will be in ample supply once the street price is elevated.
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BassTek said:
I think it's time we start referring to him simply as 'The Prophet' and start taking his word as gospel.
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That reminds me. I still need to play Crysis 3. Perfect title to work out the 3090 at 4K. If I ever get one that is.
 
kirbyrj said:
Fine. Then insert your preferred brand and lowest cost card. Would you rather a FE card or an EVGA black? This is just an example.
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Just link AHOC's Zotac breakdown where it's clear the card - at the same cost of the FE - is essentially inferior. I'm holding out for a Gigabyte Gaming OC ("$750") but Gigabyte is already livestreaming and touting their Aorus Master & Extreme which will be nowhere near "$699." (the Master alone will shake out to $800+)

Not that I'm agreeing with MILD - but it's pretty obvious the launch was timed around the acquisition of ARM and was not made in good faith. That doesn't mean they have a Darth Vader plan to control the market (more than usual, anyway) but it is par for the course with NVIDIA.
 
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RamonGTP said:


oh look... another AIB outperforming the FE.
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It's like you're willfully ignorant of the point being made by MLID. At $699 the FE card is essentially the king, but the FE will be in artificially short supply. The FE is not the be all end all of 3080 cards, but it's definitely going to be one of the best if not THE BEST at $699. Sure, other cards are going to be better than the FE, BUT THEY ARE GOING TO COST MORE $$$$.

The whole point is that Nvidia doesn't want to sell $699 cards because of the low margins, but they want you to THINK the price of the 3080 is $699 and then go buy $800 cards like the one in your video. Therefore, it is speculated that they are going to artificially limit production of $699 cards. I really don't see how this is so hard to understand. You should really go back and actually read the article. Maybe you'd learn something.

I'll try one last time...

$699 is the fucking key to this whole discussion.
 
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All the ASIC and Memory kits from NVIDIA, were offered to AIBs for the first two weeks with a $50 rebate according to MLID. "All" the cards priced with those rebates are gone now. Next wave of cards due to hit store shelves in the last half of October. None of those will have had been purchased with this rebate. Expect retail prices to go further up. It will be interesting to see if this happens or not. Also I wonder if we have AIBs holding onto ASIC/Mem inventory to build out 20GB cards. I guess we will have $1000 3080 cards at that point if not higher.
 
We need guys like MLID to talk about elephants in the room but.... If stock was so low that AIB cards sold out as fast as FE cards, I don't exactly see how nvidia is rolling in the dough any more or less than with other launches.
 
Digital Viper-X- said:
Isn't that the most expensive MSI model available currently?
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It's $760 according to the first 30 seconds of the video.
Not even a 10% price increase and a price increase that I'd be more than happy to pay if it's quieter.

Edit: Actually watched the review now, and the $699 Asus TUF was actually cooler and the same price as the FE model. I'm sure this could be fixed with some more time messing with fan curves.
 
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The Asus Tuf cards have been highly reviewed if you are waiting for a good low cost that is cooler and faster(barely on both) while clocking better that's the choice. I'm interested in the diag leds they have on the power connectors.
 
Mylex said:
The Asus Tuf cards have been highly reviewed if you are waiting for a good low cost that is cooler and faster(barely on both) while clocking better that's the choice. I'm interested in the diag leds they have on the power connectors.
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Ideally that's the card I want, hopefully we get meaningful stock soon.
 
I’m in Canada, so I’ll work with the prices I’m seeing here. The FE is currently at 899$ CAD + ~50$ shipping on NVIDIA website. So currently the lowest price we can pay for these cards is ~949$ CAD.

There are a couple of AIB cards listed at 949$ across the different online stores, among them the Asus TUF as reviewed by Hardware Unboxed. Most are way above that though all the way up to 1,149$ CAD.

My questions in this matter are:
  • Will NVIDIA keep a healthy stream of cards available from their online store at MSRP for the next 1-2 years?
  • Were the reviewers given golden sample AIB cards for these reviews further pushing people towards AIBs?
  • Will the prices of the AIB cards currently at MSRP be kept at MSRP for the next 1-2 years or will they be increase in the following weeks or months?
If that rumor is true about the AIB getting a 50$ rebate from NVIDIA for the sells in the first few weeks of this release, it is possible that NVIDIA will renew this program indefinitely to counteract AMD, or any number of other reasons. If they don’t, than we should expect an AIB price increase in the following weeks. Combine that with a shortage of FE cards and that should pretty much confirm MLID take on the matter.
 
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MangoSeed said:
I'm not following. Did MLID claim something about people's preferred brands?
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Preferred brands $699 cards will generally (as in almost always) not be as good as the FE. Preferred brands higher end cards will be on par or better than FE, but will cost more money. Hence the $699 is an illusion.
 
kirbyrj said:
Preferred brands $699 cards will generally (as in almost always) not be as good as the FE. Preferred brands higher end cards will be on par or better than FE, but will cost more money. Hence the $699 is an illusion.
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You keep saying $699 AIB cards are not as good but you’re not providing any details or evidence. In what way are they not good? And again what does any of this have to do with what MLID said?
 
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