Time to Take Moore's Law is Dead Nvidia Article Seriously...

kirbyrj

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You're right because Nvidia has never done anything shady that sounded like a conspiracy theory...GPP anyone? Bueller?
 
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MavericK

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I think he has a lot of valid points, many of which have come to pass, but the mental gymnastics going on to defend every single point is a bit much.

I hope he's right about inventory flooding the market late Oct / early Nov, because I want a card. He was pretty specific about October in the first video but now it's shifted to November. Also the 20 GB cards not coming until December undercuts the idea of the "higher margin" 20 GB cards being easier to get (plus even him admitting that prices on those are rumored to be lower than expected). I suspect there are some shenanigans going on, but also supply is probably just lower than what he thought as well.

Going to be an interesting few weeks.
 

noko

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Valid points that pan out is only as useful as the information given to him. Nvidia and AIBs can change plans, do things differently, other issues can crop up, supplies can become more or less available as time passes, are all variables. How AMD can compete, prices, availability with their AIB partners can be even a bigger factor. Any delusion one has a crystal ball has to be checked, I don't think he thinks he has a crystal ball but arrogance at times clouds good reasoning and changes that are or can occur might be missed. The low initial supply of Ampere was a clear concise point where I think he was pretty much spot on, nothing is written in stone, the further out in time, less likely to be accurate. So having updates to more accurate and changing information is what I would look for at MLID.
 

MavericK

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Valid points that pan out is only as useful as the information given to him. Nvidia and AIBs can change plans, do things differently, other issues can crop up, supplies can become more or less available as time passes, are all variables. How AMD can compete, prices, availability with their AIB partners can be even a bigger factor. Any delusion one has a crystal ball has to be checked, I don't think he thinks he has a crystal ball but arrogance at times clouds good reasoning and changes that are or can occur might be missed. The low initial supply of Ampere was a clear concise point where I think he was pretty much spot on, nothing is written in stone, the further out in time, less likely to be accurate. So having updates to more accurate and changing information is what I would look for at MLID.

True...and he seems pretty sure about the 300k 3080s dropping late Oct / early Nov, so I guess we'll see.
 

KazeoHin

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Just got these in stock. I'm not the boss, I can't sell them yet.

20201024_091530.jpg
 

Slade

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its click bait... confirmation of the cancellation of a variant that was never confirmed to exist except on a rumored AIB spreadsheet... (my bs lie was caught, so I made up another bs lie to cover my first bs lie so I can save face about my bs).
 

Brackle

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its click bait... confirmation of the cancellation of a variant that was never confirmed to exist except on a rumored AIB spreadsheet... (my bs lie was caught, so I made up another bs lie to cover my first bs lie so I can save face about my bs).

It was confirmed to be coming out by AIB slides and marketing slides from AIB's. No, it was never a rumor that 20GB/16GB model was comin out, It was confirmed......Now its confirmed that its a no go.

No sure how he was lying when there was evidence they were coming out.
 

-Strelok-

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It was confirmed to be coming out by AIB slides and marketing slides from AIB's. No, it was never a rumor that 20GB/16GB model was comin out, It was confirmed......Now its confirmed that its a no go.

No sure how he was lying when there was evidence they were coming out.

Nvidia never confirmed. A leaked AIB slide isn't confirmation.
 

-Strelok-

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I don't think it was just one random slide from one AIB.
Nvidia makes the decisions, not the AIBs. So far he has been correct about availability but wrong about 20GB variants and FE vs entry AIB cards. I’d say he’s basically a YouTube version of videocardz/wccftech.
 

Brackle

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Nvidia makes the decisions, not the AIBs. So far he has been correct about availability but wrong about 20GB variants and FE vs entry AIB cards. I’d say he’s basically a YouTube version of videocardz/wccftech.

Well were did the AIB's get the idea? Remember Nvidia is stock piling the GDDR6x. So, if the memory isn't the issue there should be no reason not to release a 20GB version.

Also the 3070 uses the normal GDDR6, which there is plenty of. There should be no reason not to release 16GB model....unless something is wrong with the yields from Samsung.

Don't get me wrong he isn't 100% accurate, but he has been spot on with quite a few things based on his sources. Also Kyle has also said his sources say the same thing....shrug
 
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noko

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Officially, Nvidia has the right to change their plans on anything and do. The date for the 3070 release changed after their announcement. AMD has been on the top of their game on the hiding RNDA2 performance even to the point of being misleading for the leaks. Galaxy and Gigabyte had info on a 3070 16gb as well as a 3080 20gb, no way they would even bother listing those unless Nvidia actually had that option for them as a possibility for them to design for with a hold as in plans can change. Well they did. We can speculate the reasons for any changes, unless reliable sources come forth it would be just speculation. From the info we have so far the Radeon RX 6700XT looks pretty much like it would crush the 3070, the cash cow. The RX 6800XT looks very promising in beating the 3080 which is a card pretty much maxed out without much headroom to go faster. We still don't know the full potential for the RNDA2 cards, they could also be over clockers from hell on top of their suppose efficiency with ram bandwidth and power.

We just have to wait to see the real data from RNDA2, 4 more days is all, at least for the initial info and then more from the reviewers. I expect AMD to be sending out whole systems with Zen 3 and RNDA2 cards (speculation) in addition to individual components. I see a number of options for Nvidia but that would be all speculation, the main issue with Nvidia is availability which may convince AMD to release RNDA2 with higher pricing, maybe one option Nvidia is using hoping RNDA2 price is not too low, get AMD or incentive them to push pricing which would benefit Nvidia since they have the larger mind share. Cat and mouse game and very interesting.
 

Slade

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When an AIB doesn't even know about the design of a card barely 2 weeks before launch day, I'd be hard pressed to trust any slide an AIB that gets leaked out as confirmation on an nvidia plan.

This week is do or die for 300k cards, what will it take to believe that this guy is just peddling bs? Making informed guesses on things that seem logical and seemingly plausible doesn't make him right. It's as good as saying; AMD and nvidia will release a faster card in 1 years time. I mean no shit, doesn't make me a prophet or say anything that wouldn't be expected anyways. This is why that guy is click bait. Enjoy clicking on it and feeding him $ though cuz its what he really just wants in the end.

If you want some real tech news juicy tidbits, here's one. There WILL be a DGX A100 variant announced in November. Not that anyone cares here.
 
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MangoSeed

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If I were a gambling man, I'd bet on a double memory card on TSMC 7nm at a "future date."

I would bet that we see 12GB on a 384-bit bus before we see 20GB/320-bit. 20GB of GDDR6X is a massive waste of expensive memory for gaming and Nvidia isn't known for throwing margins in the dirt.

Nvidia definitely seems to be squirming though which is a good thing. They were getting a little too comfortable. The greatest tragedy would be if Ampere and RDNA2 are both solid but also both unavailable.
 

MavericK

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The more time passes, the more I think the 300k cards thing was BS. All evidence points to shortages and retailers are getting paltry amounts of cards with expected ship dates into December and beyond. We basically have two weeks, being generous, for it to come true. Otherwise it was a complete fabrication.

I do think the 20gb variants probably did get cancelled, or at least massively pushed back, probably due to the general shortage of Ampere stock.
 

Slade

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MLID is a sociapathic liar. One that gets click paid for click bait. His latest video tries to explain why he was right (he will _never_ admit he was wrong) and fabricates more lies upon lies to fit his narrative and save face. Huge price increases? Crazy stock? double memory cards?
 

Starfalcon

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The more time passes, the more I think the 300k cards thing was BS. All evidence points to shortages and retailers are getting paltry amounts of cards with expected ship dates into December and beyond. We basically have two weeks, being generous, for it to come true. Otherwise it was a complete fabrication.

I do think the 20gb variants probably did get cancelled, or at least massively pushed back, probably due to the general shortage of Ampere stock.

Yeah NV figured they could do no wrong with a paper launch that didnt even have the paper. I am sure this will end up being a lesson on how to completely screw up a launch and damage your brand in the future. I hope they have a backup plan to come back from this.
 

KazeoHin

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MLID is a sociapathic liar. One that gets click paid for click bait. His latest video tries to explain why he was right (he will _never_ admit he was wrong) and fabricates more lies upon lies to fit his narrative and save face. Huge price increases? Crazy stock? double memory cards?

So far the huge price increases are true. Finding a 3080/3090 at Nvidia MSRP is less likely than winning a lottery. The fact that one or two MSRP cards have ever sold does not disprove the fact the VAST majority of the 30X0s being sold are selling with HUGE price markups over '''''''msrp''''''

Crazy stock has been true. No need to explain.

and multiple AIBS (companies with entire R&D, marketing and PR departments) have mentioned double-memory cards in internal and some external communications. These are products that have teams of people working on creating serial numbers, boxes, packaging, etc. This isn't something a company does "on a hunch".

Saying MLID is wrong about this is pretty much burying your head in the sand.
 

Starfalcon

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MLID is a sociapathic liar. One that gets click paid for click bait. His latest video tries to explain why he was right (he will _never_ admit he was wrong) and fabricates more lies upon lies to fit his narrative and save face. Huge price increases? Crazy stock? double memory cards?

I dont see the point of hating someone on the internet, He just does leaks and comentary on said leaks. I watch his videos for entertainment, and if it come true great, if not its just leaks and there are tons of fake ones all the time.
 

TaintedSquirrel

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Yeah NV figured they could do no wrong with a paper launch that didnt even have the paper. I am sure this will end up being a lesson on how to completely screw up a launch and damage your brand in the future. I hope they have a backup plan to come back from this.
The alternative was letting themselves get rolled over by AMD.
 

M76

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I dont see the point of hating someone on the internet, He just does leaks and comentary on said leaks. I watch his videos for entertainment, and if it come true great, if not its just leaks and there are tons of fake ones all the time.
I agree that youtube videos are for entertainment not for information. Unfortunately that doesn't mean a lot of of people don't gather their information from there exclusiively.
 
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MLID's reporting on the rumors appears to be reasonably accurate, but his analysis on what that means appears to be way off as far as I can see. Ampere does indeed appear to be in short supply, and prices are above MSRP. Not drastically higher, but higher is higher. That said, the analysis that nVidia will still look like the "good guy" because of Day 1 reviews and non-existent FE cards being at MSRP is way off the mark. The combination of the reviews being good but not nearly as good as what was expected, the capacitor debacle, and the worst launch in recent memory has completely overshadowed most of the positivity it got during the reviews.
 

kirbyrj

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MLID's reporting on the rumors appears to be reasonably accurate, but his analysis on what that means appears to be way off as far as I can see. Ampere does indeed appear to be in short supply, and prices are above MSRP. Not drastically higher, but higher is higher. That said, the analysis that nVidia will still look like the "good guy" because of Day 1 reviews and non-existent FE cards being at MSRP is way off the mark. The combination of the reviews being good but not nearly as good as what was expected, the capacitor debacle, and the worst launch in recent memory has completely overshadowed most of the positivity it got during the reviews.

I don't know where you're finding FE cards, but they are practically non-existent. There hasn't been a "$699" card since Day 1, and Best Buy certainly doesn't have any supply other than a trickle here and there. MLID claims you'll never see them in regular supply. I wouldn't doubt it.

My take on his main point is that Nvidia is using the $699 price point for nothing but good will when the vast majority of people will never get a card for that price. It's a change of strategy from their "$1199" FE 2080Ti and then claiming that "$999" was the price. Nobody sold a $999 2080Ti except the EVGA Black card, and it was never in stock. People didn't associate $999 with the 2080Ti. They associated $1199 with it. That's what Nvidia wanted to change this go around.

Clearly there are issues that weren't predicted (original video was from before launch) like the capacitors and (presumably) Samsung's yield issues. He did say that Nvidia was hamstringing AIBs by holding back supplies. He assumed based on his AIB contacts to be memory limited as Nvidia has purchased a lot of GDDR6X, but there seems to be more to the story than just Nvidia slowly releasing memory to AIBs.
 
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I don't know where you're finding FE cards, but they are practically non-existent. There hasn't been a "$699" card since Day 1, and Best Buy certainly doesn't have any supply other than a trickle here and there. MLID claims you'll never see them in regular supply. I wouldn't doubt it.

My take on his main point is that Nvidia is using the $699 price point for nothing but good will when the vast majority of people will never get a card for that price. It's a change of strategy from their "$1199" FE 2080Ti and then claiming that "$999" was the price. Nobody sold a $999 2080Ti except the EVGA Black card, and it was never in stock. People didn't associate $999 with the 2080Ti. They associated $1199 with it. That's what Nvidia wanted to change this go around.

Clearly there are issues that weren't predicted (original video was from before launch) like the capacitors and (presumably) Samsung's yield issues. He did say that Nvidia was hamstringing AIBs by holding back supplies. He assumed based on his AIB contacts to be memory limited as Nvidia has purchased a lot of GDDR6X, but there seems to be more to the story than just Nvidia slowly releasing memory to AIBs.

I didn't say I'm finding them, I clearly said "non-existant FE cards"
 

kirbyrj

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I didn't say I'm finding them, I clearly said "non-existant FE cards"

When you said

That said, the analysis that nVidia will still look like the "good guy" because of Day 1 reviews and non-existent FE cards being at MSRP is way off the mark.

I took that to mean that non-existent FE card were off the mark, or in other words they are somewhat available. I guess if I diagram the sentence, the "is way off the mark" refers to the "analysis" not necessarily the non-existent FE cards.
 
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When you said



I took that to mean that non-existent FE card were off the mark, or in other words they are somewhat available.
No sir, just the notion that the day 1 reviews would be all anyone would care about or remember. Looking around the forums, FB groups, you tube reviewers, no one is discussing the glowing performance. It's almost all entirely negative right now. Could get even worse for nVidia depending on how and what AMD brings to the table.
 

Mylex

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I don't know where you're finding FE cards, but they are practically non-existent. There hasn't been a "$699" card since Day 1, and Best Buy certainly doesn't have any supply other than a trickle here and there. MLID claims you'll never see them in regular supply. I wouldn't doubt it.

My take on his main point is that Nvidia is using the $699 price point for nothing but good will when the vast majority of people will never get a card for that price. It's a change of strategy from their "$1199" FE 2080Ti and then claiming that "$999" was the price. Nobody sold a $999 2080Ti except the EVGA Black card, and it was never in stock. People didn't associate $999 with the 2080Ti. They associated $1199 with it. That's what Nvidia wanted to change this go around.

Clearly there are issues that weren't predicted (original video was from before launch) like the capacitors and (presumably) Samsung's yield issues. He did say that Nvidia was hamstringing AIBs by holding back supplies. He assumed based on his AIB contacts to be memory limited as Nvidia has purchased a lot of GDDR6X, but there seems to be more to the story than just Nvidia slowly releasing memory to AIBs.
Just a correction on there hasn't been a 699 card. There are more than the 1 2080ti black by eVGA this time around. The Asus Tuf non-OC has been in stock a few times(all of the availability is shit, I would barely say this is even a paper launch more like a marketing experiment), the evga Black has shown 699 after instant rebate(the rebate was removed for like 3 days but they didnt have any cards to sell when it was gone on evga.com/newegg still listed it at 699 again with no cards available) and the MSI ventus has been sold at 699 in surprisingly larger quantity than other 2 somehow. This launch is crap, the power usage is ridiculous but there's no need to exaggerate because they are doing fine solidifying the fail of a launch all by themselves. Attached is me purchasing one of the unicorn 3080's that didnt make it into the hand of scalpers at $699 and I'm aparently 1 of 206.

amazon.JPG
 

kirbyrj

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Just a correction on there hasn't been a 699 card. There are more than the 1 2080ti black by eVGA this time around. The Asus Tuf non-OC has been in stock a few times(all of the availability is shit, I would bare say this is even a paper launch more like a marketing experiment), the evga Black has shown 699 after instant rebate(the rebate was removed for like 3 days but they didnt have any cards to sell when it was gone on evga.com/newegg still listed it at 699 again with no cards available) and the MSI ventus has been sold at 699 in surprisingly larger quantity than other 2 somehow. This launch is crap, the power usage is ridiculous but there's no need to exaggerate because they are doing fine solidifying the fail of a launch all by themselves. Attached is me purchasing one of the unicorn 3080's that didnt make it into the hand of scalpers at $699 and I'm aparently 1 of 206.

View attachment 292781

Fair enough, but the point is that $699 cards are extremely rare (just like the $999 2080Tis). EVGA has been selling $800+ FTW3 cards somewhat regularly, but hasn't had a $699 (or $729) card available on their website since Day 1.
 

Endgame

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The alternative was letting themselves get rolled over by AMD.
Assuming AMD comes to market with a real hard launch quantity of cards, a paper launch with essentially no stock is likely worse than releasing a month after AMD.

Many people (the majority I assume?) are going to wait for the reviews before buying. If Nvidia had waited to launch until Nov24th, most people would check out the amd launch and then wait for Nvidia. Now, if AMD ends up close and the choice is AMD now vs a little bit better NVidia who knows when, AMD will be the easy choice.
 

Mylex

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Fair enough, but the point is that $699 cards are extremely rare (just like the $999 2080Tis). EVGA has been selling $800+ FTW3 cards somewhat regularly, but hasn't had a $699 (or $729) card available on their website since Day 1.
I think you miss the fact that all 3080's are rare period, so of course 3 models of non existing inventory stands out more. EVGA making/selling nothing but the $800 models just shows how terrible the supply is, look at the queue for the notify wait-list. The FTW3 queues were announced more than XC emails being sent out(I think 2to1 ratio at least) because it makes sense to produce the cards that will make you a higher margin while you have customers foaming at the mouth. They will not make noticibly more of the cheaper skus until they get an increase in chips from Nvidia.
 

BrotherMichigan

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These might be helpful here:
3080 Prices
1603731363667.png


3090 Prices
1603731384026.png


Note that the flat line before the blue begins is just listings at MSRP before the real cards were even available.
 

kirbyrj

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I think you miss the fact that all 3080's are rare period, so of course 3 models of non existing inventory stands out more. EVGA making/selling nothing but the $800 models just shows how terrible the supply is, look at the queue for the notify wait-list. The FTW3 queues were announced more than XC emails being sent out(I think 2to1 ratio at least) because it makes sense to produce the cards that will make you a higher margin while you have customers foaming at the mouth. They will not make noticibly more of the cheaper skus until they get an increase in chips from Nvidia.

You are arguing his point that AIBs will manufacture cards with higher margins because the margins are low and people will impulse buy more expensive cards just because they are available.

In my limited perspective, it seems clear that lower priced cards are rarer than higher priced ones right now. Obviously, availability is low everywhere on all cards just some appear to be even lower than others.
 
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kirbyrj

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Assuming AMD comes to market with a real hard launch quantity of cards, a paper launch with essentially no stock is likely worse than releasing a month after AMD.

Many people (the majority I assume?) are going to wait for the reviews before buying. If Nvidia had waited to launch until Nov24th, most people would check out the amd launch and then wait for Nvidia. Now, if AMD ends up close and the choice is AMD now vs a little bit better NVidia who knows when, AMD will be the easy choice.

I would think AMD should be slightly easier to obtain even with limited stock. There is a distinct group of people who will only buy Nvidia for one reason or another. Also, there is another group that want to see good drivers available before they pull the trigger. Nobody likes to be a beta tester.
 

Mylex

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Ironically you are arguing his point that AIBs will manufacture cards with higher margins because the margins are low and people will impulse buy more expensive cards just because they are available.

In my limited perspective, it seems clear that lower priced cards are rarer than higher priced ones right now.
That's the issue, never have I said anything about him or his statements. I only cared about you saying there are no $699 cards. There are skus for them as the other cards, they have been on sale as the others, now that they are forced to choose you can see that are going with the highest margin products. I don't have a horse in the discussion except when the 699 3080 are placed in a picture like the 2080ti black that had only one model for 999 and it came in stock infrequently. Until these cards are in stock period a judgement can't be made on if they are in the same position. If they get a decent supply and you can see the $800 in stock without bots or crashing sites , then ok they have made these into the gens 2080ti.
 
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