Time to Take Moore's Law is Dead Nvidia Article Seriously...

exlink

Supreme [H]ardness
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Big drop as in was on sale for a whole minute this time?
3080 FE sold out in minutes. The 3090 FE was available actually for about 15 minutes. Best Buy’s site was a shit show for it all though.
 

kirbyrj

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If you can easily get a marked up card but can't get one for MSRP anywhere then he was right.

Look at AIBs and their preference for higher end models. EVGA for example has far more FTW cards available with more regular stock than XC3s. Fits right into the push for higher margins. They aren't even binned chips.
 

MangoSeed

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Look at AIBs and their preference for higher end models. EVGA for example has far more FTW cards available with more regular stock than XC3s. Fits right into the push for higher margins. They aren't even binned chips.

Supply on all cards is non existent right now.
 

TheHig

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I'm in full agreement with others have been saying for some time now. That is the1k 3080s with 20Gb vram and fatter margins will be in plentiful supply. This will be due to both less buyers for GPUs over 900 USD and of course to keep margin. The $699 3080 is a marketing tool and token gesture at best. What blows my mind is that so many people don't seem to mind getting played.

Looks like all the people who couldn't get that $699 GPU on launch can have a few more months to save up an extra 2-300 bucks.. The more you buy the more you save!
 

MavericK

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If you can easily get a marked up card but can't get one for MSRP anywhere then he was right.

Well MSRP on these cards is anywhere from 699 to 849. But the way he made it sound was that prices would be inflated above MSRP by the retailers themselves, which on the whole has not actually happened (yet). The only inflated prices are due to opportunists flipping cards.

Plus we are almost halfway through October and no magical large supply has appeared. Still have time but we'll see. I do see many retailers estimating late October for shipping dates on some "back orders", so maybe they expect a glut of cards around then.

Honestly I hope he is right, because I'd like to get a card before November. But I'm not paying exorbitant prices. I don't have an issue paying $750 for a higher-end AIB card, but not above MSRP.
 

Rizen

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I'll be honest, I have a preference for NVIDIA given my experiences with both brands drivers and software compatibility, but at this rate if AMD releases a card within 10% of the 3080 that I can actually buy with a waterblock I'll probably roll the dice.
 

kirbyrj

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What he actually claimed was...

Actually, if you read the article and looked at the context, he claimed that those cards stuffing the channels would be 20 GB cards. He even uses the same "stuffing" the channels above that in #9 describing the 20 GB cards. Now, I don't see that happening in October, but I could definitely see it happening in late November or more likely December. The 10 GB cards will always be white whales, especially at $699.
 

BrotherMichigan

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Actually, if you read the article and looked at the context, he claimed that those cards stuffing the channels would be 20 GB cards. He even uses the same "stuffing" the channels above that in #9 describing the 20 GB cards. Now, I don't see that happening in October, but I could definitely see it happening in late November or more likely December. The 10 GB cards will always be white whales, especially at $699.
We'll have to see how long NVIDIA takes to announce the 20 GB cards after the RDNA 2 event. I'm betting on an hour before the event with availability sometime before the RDNA 2 cards.
 

MangoSeed

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Well MSRP on these cards is anywhere from 699 to 849. But the way he made it sound was that prices would be inflated above MSRP by the retailers themselves, which on the whole has not actually happened (yet). The only inflated prices are due to opportunists flipping cards.

Plus we are almost halfway through October and no magical large supply has appeared. Still have time but we'll see. I do see many retailers estimating late October for shipping dates on some "back orders", so maybe they expect a glut of cards around then.

Honestly I hope he is right, because I'd like to get a card before November. But I'm not paying exorbitant prices. I don't have an issue paying $750 for a higher-end AIB card, but not above MSRP.

There was a lot of carpet bombing in the article so there's lots of fodder for believers to grab on to. MLID claimed quite a few things, none of which have happened yet.

1. AIB cards priced at $699 would have "far inferior coolers to the FE design". We already know how this turned out.
2. Stock of $699 cards would be kept artificially low while more expensive cards will be readily available.
3. Retail prices will "balloon by October". Hasn't happened yet and we're halfway through October.
4. Most cards would be sold above MSRP. He didn't say which MSRP, I assume he's including cards with higher MSRPs than the FE as being "above MSRP". If yes then duh, if not then see point #3.
5. Nvidia would blame AIB's for the price increase on double memory cards. Obviously the higher memory cards will have a higher MSRP but does he mean AIB's would add further price gouging on top of this higher MSRP?
 

Digital Viper-X-

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There was a lot of carpet bombing in the article so there's lots of fodder for believers to grab on to. MLID claimed quite a few things, none of which have happened yet.

1. AIB cards priced at $699 would have "far inferior coolers to the FE design". We already know how this turned out.
2. Stock of $699 cards would be kept artificially low while more expensive cards will be readily available.
3. Retail prices will "balloon by October". Hasn't happened yet and we're halfway through October.
4. Most cards would be sold above MSRP. He didn't say which MSRP, I assume he's including cards with higher MSRPs than the FE as being "above MSRP". If yes then duh, if not then see point #3.
5. Nvidia would blame AIB's for the price increase on double memory cards. Obviously the higher memory cards will have a higher MSRP but does he mean AIB's would add further price gouging on top of this higher MSRP?
Dell had stock this morning, of 2 MSI cards, both about $150 over MSRP
 

MavericK

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There was a lot of carpet bombing in the article so there's lots of fodder for believers to grab on to. MLID claimed quite a few things, none of which have happened yet.

1. AIB cards priced at $699 would have "far inferior coolers to the FE design". We already know how this turned out.
2. Stock of $699 cards would be kept artificially low while more expensive cards will be readily available.
3. Retail prices will "balloon by October". Hasn't happened yet and we're halfway through October.
4. Most cards would be sold above MSRP. He didn't say which MSRP, I assume he's including cards with higher MSRPs than the FE as being "above MSRP". If yes then duh, if not then see point #3.
5. Nvidia would blame AIB's for the price increase on double memory cards. Obviously the higher memory cards will have a higher MSRP but does he mean AIB's would add further price gouging on top of this higher MSRP?

Yeah. Really the only thing that he has gotten right (so far) is the scarcity, but we have no idea if it's artificial or not, and I suspect we won't know unless there is indeed a glut of supply that shows up out of nowhere. Also it's not hard to predict that an extremely high-demand item will be hard to find on launch.
 

FrgMstr

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Well MSRP on these cards is anywhere from 699 to 849. But the way he made it sound was that prices would be inflated above MSRP by the retailers themselves, which on the whole has not actually happened (yet). The only inflated prices are due to opportunists flipping cards.
EVGA, which has had the most stock so far, does not even have an MSRP 3080 card.
 

MavericK

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EVGA, which has had the most stock so far, does not even have an MSRP 3080 card.
I assume by MSRP you mean $699. Technically no, they don't, although the Black is $30 off or something which brings it to that price, but we haven't seen many if any of those, true.

Do you think we will see a sudden influx of cards before the end of the month? Just curious.
 

Brackle

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Ohhhhh...

Why wait till then though, they will sell every card they can make no matter when they launch.

Well considering that game has a huge amount of Nvidia features built in, and its going to be the biggest launch of a game this year. It makes sense to have a TON of cards for sale at that time. I got a feeling that game is going to be the next "Can it play Crysis" joke.

That game IMO is going to make AMD, Intel, and Nvidia a lot of money because everyone will be upgrading PC's.
 

Micas99

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Well considering that game has a huge amount of Nvidia features built in, and its going to be the biggest launch of a game this year. It makes sense to have a TON of cards for sale at that time. I got a feeling that game is going to be the next "Can it play Crysis" joke.

That game IMO is going to make AMD, Intel, and Nvidia a lot of money because everyone will be upgrading PC's.
Mainly 3080 GPUs I think. I keep the same CPU for a long time anyway. Felt like I had the 2600K for a decade. More to your point, were I managing CD Projekt I'd be asking for money from AMD/Intel/Nvidia simply to publish the game. They probably already have such deals in place.

But now I'm kind of torn between getting my hands on the first available 3080, or waiting for something more to my liking. Ehh.. worst case I just get the first available and sell it later if I get what I really want.
 

MangoSeed

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I think many of you overestimate that games draw, let alone it's requirements are just not that high.

Yeah there is no way anything can live up to this level of hype. The graphics may be good for an open world title but just the nature of being open world means that they can't be THAT good.
 

kirbyrj

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There was a lot of carpet bombing in the article so there's lots of fodder for believers to grab on to. MLID claimed quite a few things, none of which have happened yet.

1. AIB cards priced at $699 would have "far inferior coolers to the FE design". We already know how this turned out.
2. Stock of $699 cards would be kept artificially low while more expensive cards will be readily available.
3. Retail prices will "balloon by October". Hasn't happened yet and we're halfway through October.
4. Most cards would be sold above MSRP. He didn't say which MSRP, I assume he's including cards with higher MSRPs than the FE as being "above MSRP". If yes then duh, if not then see point #3.
5. Nvidia would blame AIB's for the price increase on double memory cards. Obviously the higher memory cards will have a higher MSRP but does he mean AIB's would add further price gouging on top of this higher MSRP?

1). I think the "far inferior" cooler was assumed based on the "superior cost." It turns out Nvidia just over-engineered the cooler, but that doesn't change how expensive it is. If Nvidia is essentially breaking even on the 3080 FE, then there's NO WAY Nvidia is EVER going to produce those in bulk (which was the point MLID was making).
2). This is happening already. There are no $699 cards available except for the trickle of FE cards that occasionally hits. The cards that do come available are definitely NOT $699 cards. AIB $699 cards haven't been available since Day 1.
3). "Balloon by October" assumed the retail channels would be stuffed by October. For one, it's not even the middle of October, and even if the timing is more accurately November instead of October, the point is still relevant.
4). AIBs are going to prioritize higher margin cards. Hence EVGA for example puts out far more FTW cards at $809 than XC3 Black cards at $699 (or $729). MLID claims that Nvidia is holding back the supply of GDDR6X. If you have limited supplies, you're going to use those to make the cards that make you more money.
5). This is subjective. I doubt Nvidia is ever going to "blame" AIBs directly, but they'll point to their $699 card (which you can't buy) when AIBs are charging $150-300 more for 20GB cards.

If you watch the follow up video, Nvidia seems to be building hype with artificial scarcity so people impulse buy the 20GB cards at $850-1000 (I'd guess closer to $1000). Overall, I think MLID has more things right than wrong, and the things that are wrong are more timing than anything else. He claims that at 3070 launch, people will definitely be able to buy one because there are going to be "a boat load" of them.

Edit: I think Nvidia's "Plan" looks something like these "Average" prices after you factor in double memory cards:
3070 - $650
3080 - $950
3090 - $1600
 
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MangoSeed

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1). I think the "far inferior" cooler was assumed based on the "superior cost." It turns out Nvidia just over-engineered the cooler, but that doesn't change how expensive it is. If Nvidia is essentially breaking even on the 3080 FE, then there's NO WAY Nvidia is EVER going to produce those in bulk (which was the point MLID was making).
2). This is happening already. There are no $699 cards available except for the trickle of FE cards that occasionally hits. The cards that do come available are definitely NOT $699 cards. AIB $699 cards haven't been available since Day 1.
3). "Balloon by October" assumed the retail channels would be stuffed by October. For one, it's not even the middle of October, and even if the timing is more accurately November instead of October, the point is still relevant.
4). AIBs are going to prioritize higher margin cards. Hence EVGA for example puts out far more FTW cards at $809 than XC3 Black cards at $699 (or $729). MLID claims that Nvidia is holding back the supply of GDDR6X. If you have limited supplies, you're going to use those to make the cards that make you more money.
5). This is subjective. I doubt Nvidia is ever going to "blame" AIBs directly, but they'll point to their $699 card (which you can't buy) when AIBs are charging $150-300 more for 20GB cards.

If you watch the follow up video, Nvidia seems to be building hype with artificial scarcity so people impulse buy the 20GB cards at $850-1000 (I'd guess closer to $1000). Overall, I think MLID has more things right than wrong, and the things that are wrong are more timing than anything else. He claims that at 3070 launch, people will definitely be able to buy one because there are going to be "a boat load" of them.

Edit: I think Nvidia's "Plan" looks something like these "Average" prices after you factor in double memory cards:
3070 - $650
3080 - $950
3090 - $1600

His article speaks for itself. No need to guess at what he was trying to say or explain why he's not right "yet".
 

kirbyrj

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His article speaks for itself. No need to guess at what he was trying to say or explain why he's not right "yet".

Quite frankly I disagree. I think what he is saying has a lot more merit than you're willing to accept.
 

MangoSeed

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Quite frankly I disagree. I think what he is saying has a lot more merit than you're willing to accept.

I'm willing to give credit where it's due. If and when what he says comes true. What I'm not willing to do is blindly accept unfounded accusations of corporate villainy from some random talking head on YT.
 

Slade

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The conspiracy theory behind this is a joke. View attachment 288976
1602721250694.png
 
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