Thanks Elon you screwed us

Mystique

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Also with all the halving mining will inevitably die down and the miners won't process transfers cheap and be so open with their recording of ledger transfers. It will become expensive to transfer bitcoin since it requires work that eventually won't be oversaturated with volunteers.
 

sk3tch

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"Mining" today often isn't even that (at least in the context of BTC - coins like ETH are still very much "mined") - it's "hashing" - renting out your GPU power to whoever wants to pay for it (i.e. places like NiceHash). If I have a project to mine for a *poop*coin I can rent the power of 25 3080s for xyz BTC per hour, as an example.

There will ALWAYS be hashing needs - so this aspect will not necessarily die down for GPU demand. Although, certainly, it's hyped right now due to crypto doing well.
 
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HockeyJon

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I just don't understand why he'd invest that much into in now vs say earlier last year. Seems an odd time to be putting that much in.

"Hmm Bitcoin is at an all time high, think I'll buy now."

I guess assuming it will reach much higher prices, but just seems rather irresponsible to me as well.

Bitcoin is a bit paradoxical in that the higher it goes, the more it makes sense. Since there isn’t anything underlying the asset, a higher value suggests higher adoption, which means it’s safer to invest in, which in turn raises the value. This is different than traditional investment vehicles as you can conduct an analysis like discounted cash flow or whatever to try to pin where the price should be. By that logic, it made perfect sense for Musk to put money into it now, and the subsequent rise in Bitcoin’s value following that has arguably vindicated his decision making.

Also, if you know anyone who is into Bitcoin, the use case doesn’t even matter. It’s become a religion. The use case is variable and will change to whatever I needs to be in order to continue to push the belief. First it was a currency, but then it wasn’t because it’s actually a store of value. First it was a way for the little guy to stick it to the man after the financial industry screwed us all in 2008, but now we’re excited because banks and hedge funds have begun buying it up. Bitcoin is great because it’s completely decentralized, but 95% of it is owned by 2% of the accounts, who effectively can dictate the value of it by controlling the supply on the open market (but yeah, other than that, totally “decentralized”). You can only ever get 21 million so supply is limited, but oh yeah, some dude forked it and made Bitcoin Cash, which is totally different or something. Etc.
 

euskalzabe

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That's in October 2140 though. Everyone arguing about it now will be long gone.
Not exactly. Let's read the charts properly:
1613525735014.png

Yes, the last bitcoin will be mined around ~2140 - gigantic speculation there though. However, the great, great, great majority of coins will be done by 2029. After that, mining the rest will be so difficult, time and energy intensive, it won't make any sort of economic sense for GPU miners anymore.
 

kirbyrj

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Not exactly. Let's read the charts properly:
View attachment 330125
Yes, the last bitcoin will be mined around ~2140 - gigantic speculation there though. However, the great, great, great majority of coins will be done by 2029. After that, mining the rest will be so difficult, time and energy intensive, it won't make any sort of economic sense for GPU miners anymore.

No offense, but the fact that you referenced GPU mining BTC suggests to me that you have no idea what you're even talking about. It hasn't been economically feasible to mine BTC on GPUs for some 8 or 9 years.

Plus, it is hard to dictate whether or not it would make economic sense because we do not know what the price of each BTC will be worth. We don't know what it will be worth one year from now, let alone eight years from now, let alone in 2140.
 

oldmanbal

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For the people that are worried crypto will keep going up and up - the thing to keep in mind is that there are still BTC left to be mined out of the 21 million cap. BUT once the cap is reached and all 21 million are out in circulation (or lost to time and dead hard disks), the prices should stabilize more as the supply will be constrained and no longer as much of a variable as it is now.

According to these guys https://www.buybitcoinworldwide.com/how-many-bitcoins-are-there/

We're at 88% mined and at present 900 BTC per day being mined. That's 2,369,581.3 BTC left to be mined and less each minute we're speaking about it.
It's but it's also going to be harder to mine the remaining bitcoin as we get closer to the zero day. Bitcoin is more about being the crypto gold standard, similar to USD for a lot of the world. If anything, i would imagine bitcoin will become MORE valuable when the supply limit is hit, as it will continue to be a commodity.
 

euskalzabe

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No offense, but the fact that you referenced GPU mining BTC suggests to me that you have no idea what you're even talking about. It hasn't been economically feasible to mine BTC on GPUs for some 8 or 9 years.

You can certainly mine Bitcoin with gpus, though anyone serious about it will use ASICs at this point. You missed the point of my post entirely: that bitcoin has a finite economic gain, just like the switch to eth 2.0 will put the same limit on ethereum
 

kirbyrj

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You can certainly mine Bitcoin with gpus, though anyone serious about it will use ASICs at this point. You missed the point of my post entirely: that bitcoin has a finite economic gain, just like the switch to eth 2.0 will put the same limit on ethereum

I don't know that I agree with that either. Historically with halvings the price adjusts to reflect the mining reward. It seems to me that there would continue to be an adjustment to the price up until 2140 as less and less BTC are released.

Sure, if you assume a static price then it certainly wouldn't make sense to spend the time and energy to mine for such little reward.

And while technically true you can still run SHA-256 hashing on your GPU, you'll never make any money doing so. There is a difference between mining bitcoin and being paid in bitcoin for "mining" other algos on your GPU. Bitcoin mining on GPUs is dead. Being paid in bitcoin for hashing other algos is very much alive and well.
 
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MrGuvernment

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kirbyrj I would presume these places are mining BTC? Or they doing ETH and converting?

Icelands largest mining operations - plenty of GPUs

Notes "this entire row for GPUs -https://youtu.be/4ekOcDG2D8E?t=212


2500 GPU farm
 

kirbyrj

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kirbyrj I would presume these places are mining BTC? Or they doing ETH and converting?

Icelands largest mining operations - plenty of GPUs

Notes "this entire row for GPUs -https://youtu.be/4ekOcDG2D8E?t=212


2500 GPU farm

One of those videos references an HD 5970 video card which means that they might have been mining BTC back in the day (like 2009 when the card was released).

The fact that they were talking about 8GB cards in the other videos seems to indicate they are mining ETH, and not BTC on cards.
 

WilyKit

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I’m not really into mining but I’ve started firing up a couple GPUs myself. I mean... why not, it’s cold out and I need heat. Might as well make a couple bucks heating the room instead of spending a couple by turning the heater on.
 

LukeTbk

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No. I wouldn't gamble in a casino hoping for loyalty rewards points to make me money.
Not sure I understand the analogy.

Costco in 2020 returned $12.75 in dividend by share.

If you would have bought 1,000 share of Costco in 1998 for $40,000, yes your stock current value would be 700K and the most interesting part, but the reason they would be worth so much is not unlinked to the fact that you made $25,500 in dividend last year, people building portfolio for their retirement of company that will return them actual money during those decade (via stock buyback or dividend) is a lot about what is going on.
 
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Kardonxt

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kirbyrj I would presume these places are mining BTC? Or they doing ETH and converting?
Like kirbyrj said BTC GPU mining is dead. If they are mining BTC they are old videos. Otherwise they are mining some sort of alt coin, likely Ethereum. It would be speculation to say they are converting to BTC as they may not be holding BTC at all. They could just be mining altcoins and selling for cash.

You could probably still technically try to mine BTC with GPUs however you would make nothing or next to nothing at current difficult levels. You wouldn't even come close to covering you electric costs. Unless those labs are run buy an evil scientist with a convoluted plan to contribute to global warming by wasting a bunch of electricity while making no profit.... they are not mining BTC.

That's why bringing BTC end cap into a conversation about GPU availability is irrelevant elephant. GPUs are not being bought to mine BTC.

Pools like nicehash payout in BTC, which could give the illusion people are GPU mining BTC. However you are actually mining whatever altcoin they tell your client to and then they are paying you in BTC.
 

HockeyJon

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Not sure I understand the analogy.

Costco in 2020 returned $12.75 in dividend by share.

If you would have bought 1,000 share of Costco in 1998 for $40,000, yes your stock current value would be 700K and the most interesting part, but the reason they would be worth so much is not unlinked to the fact that you made $25,500 in dividend last year

People who liken investing to gambling don't understand investing. You can use the stock market as a gambling vehicle, but that doesn't mean investing and gambling are the same thing. Gambling is based on random chance and nothing else. That is not true with regard to investing.
 

Andrew_Carr

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People who liken investing to gambling don't understand investing. You can use the stock market as a gambling vehicle, but that doesn't mean investing and gambling are the same thing. Gambling is based on random chance and nothing else. That is not true with regard to investing.
Just to play devil's advocate, why do professional investors have such difficulty beating the market? If it's not random, surely they could predict the market and make more money?
 

Mega6

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Just to play devil's advocate, why do professional investors have such difficulty beating the market? If it's not random, surely they could predict the market and make more money?
I don't know because I bought AMD starting at 14 down to 9 on up and mined bitcoin on GPUs seven years ago. Bought Tesla before the split at 709. Wasn't rocket science.
 
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HockeyJon

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Just to play devil's advocate, why do professional investors have such difficulty beating the market? If it's not random, surely they could predict the market and make more money?

There is always an element of random this because of the animal spirits of the investor, but that does not make it the same as gambling.
 

LukeTbk

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Just to play devil's advocate, why do professional investors have such difficulty beating the market? If it's not random, surely they could predict the market and make more money?
If they could reliably predict the market, the market would be fully efficient and not something that you could beat (you could take more or less risk), the more efficient the market are and less the concept of beating it make sense (you need an asset to be badly evaluated for someone to make a good choice of picking or shorting them).

Professional hedge funds have such a difficulty beating the market because of their high fees, sometime they do better choice but because of the cost of being run end up short (which if we compare the fact that 90% of hedge funds to worst than simply a regular guy picking an low fee index with the talk around them vs the little guys during the robinhood affair is a strange contrast). Say the index in their domain did 12%, they did 13.5% but had 2% fees so down to 11.5%

Is the Buffet, Soros, the Magellan fund under Lynch just a case that hundreds of thousand are trying to beat the market so some people could just by chance looking to be good at it over 2 dedace during their life even if it was pure luck in a pure random game ? Some example make it hard to believe so, mathematically speaking.

Magellan made 29% annual return average from 1977 to 1990, when someone find a strategy that work they become copied and that advantage vanish I would imagine.

Say the stock market would only be for IPO, no resell possible you only get dividend from the fact you "own" a percentage of a company stock's would still exist and still bought on their IPO, the possibility to resell a percentage of the company to someone else over time is not a necessary part of it.
 
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Saabjock

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The anger is misguided.
His purchasing Bitcoin versus companies willing to forego customer loyalty by not allocating enough product to sell to them, are two different things altogether.
If Nvidia and AMD wanted to, they would have.
 

Dvater

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Anyone else get super jealous over this bitcoin shit? I swear every time I want to invest something I'm always on the tail end of catching it before it gets good.
 

Bigbacon

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Anyone else get super jealous over this bitcoin shit? I swear every time I want to invest something I'm always on the tail end of catching it before it gets good.

i feel the only winners in bitcoin were those who got in back in the day when you could mine it and then held it. how do you invest in it now unless you have tons of money.
 

Dvater

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i feel the only winners in bitcoin were those who got in back in the day when you could mine it and then held it. how do you invest in it now unless you have tons of money.

Well, I guess realistically you still increase your money whatever fold, right? Like even if Bitcoin is say $20,000 a piece and you put $200 in it if it's gets up to $40,000 won't you technically have $400? I suppose any money I DID invest COULD increase, my problem is that, and it is the name of the game, you never know when it might pop.

Which is my problem with gambling/stocks in general I suppose. Sure, I could make money, I could also lose money. What if I put $1,000 in Bitcoin now but it falls back down to $10,000 in a month? I just lost a good chunk of change...but what if Bitcoin keeps climbing and it hits $200,000 a coin? I could have made a nice little chunk.

So yeah maybe I just need to come to the realization that I don't like placing bets and just need to deal with my own jealousy of people making MAD money over doing fucking nothing. It's like the normal persons OnlyFans...
 

NKD

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i feel the only winners in bitcoin were those who got in back in the day when you could mine it and then held it. how do you invest in it now unless you have tons of money.

You don't have to buy a whole bitcoin. You can buy little. Plus that is not the entire point. There are lot of good projects you can throw money at. As always it is a risk so don't put in money you might need in rainy day and can't afford to lose. I put in 6-6.5k over the last year and shit is sitting at 32k. Should I take profit, may be but I don't need the money and given I started getting in to in 2017, I sold too early. You are going to get 30-40% dips and a bear month or two during the bull run. Happened in 2017 bunch of times. But if history repeats itself we are just at the beginning of another bull run after breaking previous high.

If I lost the 6500 I put in so be it lol. But I have a target to sell timeline wise. May be this November, December. If I don't hit it I will just hold. You only lose if you sell it.
 

NKD

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Anyone else get super jealous over this bitcoin shit? I swear every time I want to invest something I'm always on the tail end of catching it before it gets good.

well by december it will probbaly go to 200k+ and then correct 80% over year and half bear market. Rinse and repeat lol.
 

Sir Beregond

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well by december it will probbaly go to 200k+ and then correct 80% over year and half bear market. Rinse and repeat lol.
Yep. While we don't know exact cycle, it always has one and you buy in during the bear.
 

NKD

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Yep. While we don't know exact cycle, it always has one and you buy in during the bear.

Yep. I bought eth and other Alts and less then one BTC. Put in what I could afford to lose and it’s more then 5x right now. If I would have bought during the bear year before 2017 in 2016 would have been way better. But I panic sold shit and would buy higher. Now I bought in 2019 and just held on to shit. I have converted coins here and there but never sold anything for cash. If last cycles are anything to go buy this is just the beginning. Ofcourse we might get bunch of correction on the way that is just more opportunities to buy but overall beginning of the bull run. With institutional money flowing in to btc it’s just good for crypto and we might see slower but longer bull run this time.
 

AgentQ

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Well, I guess realistically you still increase your money whatever fold, right? Like even if Bitcoin is say $20,000 a piece and you put $200 in it if it's gets up to $40,000 won't you technically have $400? I
Technically, you have $0. But you have 0.01 Bitcoin, which you could sell for $400 (minus exchange fees and the $10+ transaction fees each time you need to move any Bitcoin) if you sell right now.

But the person who sold you the Bitcoin has your actual dollars. That's some combination of miners and earlier adopters cashing out their profits.

The price only goes up if more people are buying in than cashing out. As soon as more people start cashing out than buying in, the price starts walking down the order book.

Eventually some other altcoin will come along and steal the show away from Bitcoin, so people moving from BTC to the altcoin will push the price of one down and the other up. When the Bitcoin hype starts wearing thin and news outlets stop getting attention for talking about it, I'm sure we'll see other investments like NFTs take center stage, which will pull more speculative money out of Bitcoin.


suppose any money I DID invest COULD increase, my problem is that, and it is the name of the game, you never know when it might pop.

Which is my problem with gambling/stocks in general I suppose. Sure, I could make money, I could also lose money. What if I put $1,000 in Bitcoin now but it falls back down to $10,000 in a month? I just lost a good chunk of change...but what if Bitcoin keeps climbing and it hits $200,000 a coin? I could have made a nice little chunk.

So yeah maybe I just need to come to the realization that I don't like placing bets and just need to deal with my own jealousy of people making MAD money over doing fucking nothing. It's like the normal persons OnlyFans...

Big difference between gambling and investing. For as much as we hear about Bitcoin being the new gold standard or other stories, most people buy it purely for gambling.

In previous cycles, people rushed to buy in when it looked like the price could only go up. Then it started going down so they bought in more because everyone was chanting "Buy the dip!". Then the price kept falling and falling and they either sold or lost interest. Bitcoin price stays flat for several years, then Bitcoin investors start making moves to generate hype and the cycle starts all over again.

It keeps going as long as there's hype and promise of price increases.

The stories about using crypto to avoid inflation aren't really accurate, because you can avoid inflation by investing in stocks, or real estate, or gold, or anything other than cash.

The stories about blockchain aren't really accurate either, because most people don't want to spend the $10-20 (or more) on Bitcoin transaction fees every time they want to use the blockchain. They just leave it in the exchange.

That said, a reasonable investing strategy in stocks and bonds (and a tiny bit of crypto too, if you want) is a good thing across your lifetime. Don't try to time the markets and buy and sell all the time, or even pick stocks. Invest in a boring S&P 500 index fund with $100 every paycheck over the next 10-30 years, and it will pay off. Long term, you'll buy a little bit at the lows and you'll buy a little bit at the highs, so they daily stuff doesn't matter.
 

Mega6

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Eventually some other altcoin will come along and steal the show away from Bitcoin, so people moving from BTC to the altcoin will push the price of one down and the other up. When the Bitcoin hype starts wearing thin and news outlets stop getting attention for talking about it, I'm sure we'll see other investments like NFTs take center stage, which will pull more speculative money out of Bitcoin.
Altcoin will always have a back seat to BitCoin. It's been that way forever and the only real new things is De-Fi mostly on Eth. All the other things offered by Altcoin is not needed, not important or they offer just plain nothing over Bitcoin.

Big difference between gambling and investing. For as much as we hear about Bitcoin being the new gold standard or other stories, most people buy it purely for gambling.

In previous cycles, people rushed to buy in when it looked like the price could only go up. Then it started going down so they bought in more because everyone was chanting "Buy the dip!". Then the price kept falling and falling and they either sold or lost interest. Bitcoin price stays flat for several years, then Bitcoin investors start making moves to generate hype and the cycle starts all over again.

It keeps going as long as there's hype and promise of price increases.

The stories about using crypto to avoid inflation aren't really accurate, because you can avoid inflation by investing in stocks, or real estate, or gold, or anything other than cash.
Business Cycle - replace Bitcoin with any stock or even the S&P500 Index, shame stuff. Bitcoin has just returned MORE due to it's scarcity model, Dollar Inflation, M2 growth, ect.

The stories about blockchain aren't really accurate either, because most people don't want to spend the $10-20 (or more) on Bitcoin transaction fees every time they want to use the blockchain. They just leave it in the exchange.

That said, a reasonable investing strategy in stocks and bonds (and a tiny bit of crypto too, if you want) is a good thing across your lifetime. Don't try to time the markets and buy and sell all the time, or even pick stocks. Invest in a boring S&P 500 index fund with $100 every paycheck over the next 10-30 years, and it will pay off. Long term, you'll buy a little bit at the lows and you'll buy a little bit at the highs, so they daily stuff doesn't matter.

Good plan if you don't have a clue. If you do have a clue - invest in what you know, invest with confidence and go big. Then you can tell your boss "bye" way early. Time is Money and Money is Time.
 

Aegir

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Altcoin will always have a back seat to BitCoin. It's been that way forever and the only real new things is De-Fi mostly on Eth. All the other things offered by Altcoin is not needed, not important or they offer just plain nothing over Bitcoin.


Business Cycle - replace Bitcoin with any stock or even the S&P500 Index, shame stuff. Bitcoin has just returned MORE due to it's scarcity model, Dollar Inflation, M2 growth, ect.



Good plan if you don't have a clue. If you do have a clue - invest in what you know, invest with confidence and go big. Then you can tell your boss "bye" way early. Time is Money and Money is Time.

Have you said "bye" to your boss yet?
It's easy to dream big, but do you actually live big?
 

Mega6

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Have you said "bye" to your boss yet?
It's easy to dream big, but do you actually live big?
A couple years ago - my boss was actually swearing at me "what the F* do I need you for?" blah blah.. so I emailed the CEO about it. Didn't really get a chance to say bye though as I was escorted out of the building by security. Don't really have a desire to "live big", but have more than enough to live comfortable - without working. Pissing away money of frivolous desires can make anyone go broke quick - no matter how much you have. Independence is a big win in and of itself.
 

Aegir

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A couple years ago - my boss was actually swearing at me "what the F* do I need you for?" blah blah.. so I emailed the CEO about it. Didn't really get a chance to say bye though as I was escorted out of the building by security. Don't really have a desire to "live big", but have more than enough to live comfortable - without working. Independence is a big win in and of itself.

Ha, shows them right.
Well, I'm certainly happy to see you succeed.
But all I meant is that it's easy to say, "Just go big and live rich," but not nearly as hard to actually invest A LOT into something, and then have it multiply your money enough for it to free you from the shackles of employment.
 

Epyon

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BTC is going down...keep going down bitch...right into the fucking ground and when you arrive grab a shovel and start digging
 

LukeTbk

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Like anything, you have to get in early or buy low and have determination. I own both so no problem there. Should have sold tesla @ 900, oh well. Still up a shitload.
True for determination, but the first 2, I think both can be a bit misleading, someone that would have jump in microsoft after the windows 1995 hype machine in march of 1996 would have made 31422.98% without dividend by selling now, thinking that should have got early before it became that everyone know about it giant would have been quite the "mistake".

Someone late on Apple in 2007, 41K for each 1K put it in, in both those scenario no attempt at timing low was made, just pick a date without looking at the values before, same goes a mentality should have bought before Apple explosion around 2003 not is too late would have been a bit misguided.

Same exercice can be made with amazon, google, netflix, nvidia, etc.... with a quite late and not low (even a local peak before a dip) return calculation, there is a good list of better late than never investment.
 
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