Tesla's New Tabless Electrode Battery Cell Patent Is 'Way More Important Than It Sounds' says crazy-person Elon Musk

[Wierdo]

Hardly. The infrastructure isn't there. You'll have to be able to charge cars wherever they are parked, and that's not going to happen for a good, long time, if ever.

If you say so lol. China and Europe are ready, and so is non-rural America, which is >80 percent of the market.

That's a good starting point, the rest can sort itself out by the time the ICE industry's laggards go under - by 2030 probably.



Modernization to EV in those markets is already happening dramatically.

It's kinda like cell service, the pockets of no connectivity didn't stop the dramatic shift from land line, the same with EVs.

 

[Axman]

If you say so lol. China and Europe are ready, and so is non-rural America, which is >80 percent of the market.

Yeah I live in non-rural America. I live in a rich white neighborhood. The kind of neighborhood where people don't have garages, just the newcomers with their McMansions; everyone else parks their cars -- often old but tastefully maintained -- on the street.

So when they can't charge a Tesla, they buy G-Wagons and call it a day.

Unless you can move this neighborhood, and the others like it, then charging is a non-starter. Good luck telling the monied folk they can just charge their cars at the car-charger with the rest of the plebs.

 

[sfsuphysics]

This was a good laymen's summary about why battery day basically spelled the impending end of the ICE age:

So based on Battery Day hype. EVs for $25k. You "can" currently get the cheapest Model 3 for $35k, and you don't get any of the bells and whistles, do you think a $25k car is really where the breaking point is? Which a quick look right now, you can practically get with all the incentives out there in California unless you're rich enough to buy whatever model you want anyways.


It's not like you're going to get a Model S P100D with the massive range for $25k, you'll get the nerfed version of... whatever cheap thing they can push out at that cost with the minimal amount of range that Tesla is happy with living with. How do I know this? Because they would have stated an even cheaper price if they could give that to you. Most of the new stuff is going to go to the higher end models (or more extras) so if you want one of those $25k cars, chances are there will be a waitlist, but hey we have the $40k version that has the autopilot installed!

The range increase is... 16% .. yeah that's not going to be a tipping point for people either, currently 250mi range turns into 290 mile range.

Lastly this is all hype still, these batteries don't exist yet, they have a patent for them and that's it, I'm going to REALLY hope they have a prototype done and this isn't vaporware but even so the cost analysis of these is based on the right now, they're changing to a cheaper nickel? (or whatever) guess what commodity is going to start going up in cost...

And yeah you found some Amazon millionaires... whoopity do. For everyone who's a millionaire who invested in "the next big thing", there's 1000s who aren't because they invested in the wrong next big thing, so it's easy to cherry pick stuff. Plus Amazon isn't as big as it is because it's an online bookstore, so people who got rich off it is because they got lucky Amazon turned into something else other than an online bookstore.

 

[xykreilon]

fearful fools hate any car that isn't ICE based

I like electric cars. I hate Tesla and forced technological bloat. I have ridden in a Model S. Yes, the acceleration is thrilling. Yes, the silence makes music more pleasant (especially bass). But, the screens are eyesores and will only age like milk as years go on. Beyond being ugly to my tastes, I really hate fiddling with touch screen while I'm firetrucking driving.

Though, Bollinger Motors has very enticing designs. I'm excited for vehicles that give me the performance/efficiency/space/noise-attenuation gains of electric without the vomit inducing redundancy of baked-in GUI controls (do people forget what their smartphones are capable of just by seeing a big tablet fixed to the dash of their Tesla?) and, frankly, spyware.

 

[Nafensoriel]

@Wierdo

That table is funny. It doesn't add up. Things that dont add up generally are data shaped. Statistics in todays age are always suspect without some significant public access to back up the claim.
To add even 50% adoption of EVs in North America alone would require over 6 trillion USD invested in the grid... This is after rebuilding the grid since it hasn't been really touched since the 1950s when it was built. Not to mention people will tend to charge their cars at very narrow time bands because that's honestly just the way cities work. You are talking about installing huge systems to handle the surge load without causing fires. It's not "tomorrow" type stuff.. its 10-15 years type stuff even with an all hands on deck effort.

The other side of the coin people forget is as electric is adopted and we continue to push efficiency for liquid fuels the price of gasoline will continue to reduce. It's ironic that the more successful electric is the more cost effective ICE gets and the less economical electric gets(past a certain adoption point).

Also I think you are mistaken about china and India. Both countries are heavily investing in methanol fuels for... well obvious reasons. It's the liquid alternative that actually consumes carbon. NA/EU are just behind on realizing how cost effective a choice it is.

 

[1_rick]

The other side of the coin people forget is as electric is adopted and we continue to push efficiency for liquid fuels the price of gasoline will continue to reduce.

And ICE engines get better and so on. My current car is a '15 Sonic. I get approximately the same ~22mpg in the city as I did with my '95 Escort. But the Escort struggled to hit 33mpg on the highway at 65 (I had about 100K miles of long-distance highway driving with records of when and how much I fueled up), whereas the Sonic will do closer to 40 at 65, but it's also a lot smoother ride at 75, has a lot more features, and weighs about 400lb more.

 

[Wierdo]

Yeah I live in non-rural America. I live in a rich white neighborhood. The kind of neighborhood where people don't have garages, just the newcomers with their McMansions; everyone else parks their cars -- often old but tastefully maintained -- on the street.

So when they can't charge a Tesla, they buy G-Wagons and call it a day.

Unless you can move this neighborhood, and the others like it, then charging is a non-starter. Good luck telling the monied folk they can just charge their cars at the car-charger with the rest of the plebs.

Don't have to tell them anything, they can figure out how to fund their own infrastructure when car companies and gas stations go out of business or transition to EV support.

Both California and NY are banning ICE by 2030 in their markets, and the EU and China have similar measures, people there are not going to buy obsoleted technology, and companies that don't transition will not survive the competitors that do.

It's an EV, it can work with any plug, the infrastructure is basically laid out already for every home, but people will get tired of using extension cords and the infrastructure will further modernize for the rest of the rural population by demand, kinda like broadband. Businesses are already starting to offer them in malls and hotels to attract customers across the nation.

The state to state travel is already covered, and by end of next year we will have EVs that travel 500 miles:
(https://electrek.co/2020/01/01/tesla-updates-2020-supercharger-map/)

So yeah, sure, there will be pockets of aging infrastructure in the nation, but it's not the first time technology becomes mainstream before it reaches the niche corners of the rural market.

 

[1_rick]

It's an EV, it can work with any plug

Sure, I love the idea of charging the car overnight instead of a 5-minute fillup at a gas station.

 

[Wierdo]

So based on Battery Day hype. EVs for $25k. You "can" currently get the cheapest Model 3 for $35k, and you don't get any of the bells and whistles, do you think a $25k car is really where the breaking point is? Which a quick look right now, you can practically get with all the incentives out there in California unless you're rich enough to buy whatever model you want anyways.

I believe that's gonna be a compact type car for the city. Something that can handle cramped roads etc. but I think $25k will be a major breaking point for many customers in China, EU and non-rural America.

Allot of customers are already coming in from cheaper cars to Model 3s because they like the superior technology EVs bring and are also aware of the total cost of ownership trend. A solid $25k EV would perform better and cost less to operate, the more cost sensitive the customer the more valuable this becomes to them, they just need to think about it, and that information is becoming more and more common knowledge in those trending markets.

This an extreme example of cost savings but the general idea is the same, a police department's expense chart:

(https://electrek.co/2020/10/05/tesla-model-3-crushes-dodge-charger-cost-of-operation-police-car/)

The range increase is... 16% .. yeah that's not going to be a tipping point for people either, currently 250mi range turns into 290 mile range.

Lastly this is all hype still, these batteries don't exist yet, they have a patent for them and that's it, I'm going to REALLY hope they have a prototype done and this isn't vaporware but even so the cost analysis of these is based on the right now, they're changing to a cheaper nickel? (or whatever) guess what commodity is going to start going up in cost...

16% is just one of the five areas covered, here's the full end result of combining all these improvements, it was a major overhaul of multiple steps in the process of making an EV:


You're right about this being work in progress, but Tesla is known to move quickly after making such announcements, they were working on these pieces for close to ten years before going public.

I believe we'll see the early results by end of next year, and 3 years for it to go full steam on most changes, which would be around the time they want to begin looking into their two $25k EV designs.

I understand that they plan to use some of these improvements first in the upcoming "Model S Plaid" that's coming out the end of next year, and then the Model Y that's made specifically in the new Berlin factory:
https://electrek.co/2020/10/07/elon-musk-tesla-structural-battery-cells-model-y-giga-berlin/

Those will likely be utilizing the low hanging fruit from the above chart, it's always possible that they'll run into some snags in some of the more difficult ones, lets say 2025 is when all pieces hopefully truly come into place.

 

[Wierdo]

Sure, I love the idea of charging the car overnight instead of a 5-minute fillup at a gas station.

Do you take your cellphone to the gas station? It's not the same usage model. Most people drive their cars ten or twenty miles in a day 99 percent of the time.

And if you want to travel long distance then that's when a supercharger comes into play, otherwise you probably see that place a couple times a year.

Basically what happens is you end up leaving home every day with a full "tank" in this usage model, or if you prefer to do it once a week then plug that EV on a weekend before bed and you're ready to drive hundreds of miles the following week.

You're technically saving time on average with an EV actually, no more multiple "five minute" stops plus fifteen minute detours to go to a gas station. You just go straight home and plug it when you need to, much cheaper too, many EVs have triple digit mileage figures and maintenance chart is a cake walk.

https://www.thedrive.com/news/34494...g-this-police-department-thousands-of-dollars

 

[1_rick]

Most people drive their cars ten or twenty miles in a day 99 percent of the time.

Well, that's great for them, not so great for the people who don't fit that usage model.

And if you want to travel long distance then that's when a supercharger comes into play

Sure. IF you can use them the whole way. You still can't go, IIRC, from Dallas to Chicago, to give an example on superchargers.

ou just go straight home and plug it when you need to

Sure. You think my apartment complex is going to put 400 of them in the parking garage? Or are people going to have to shuffle cars around? Do the people who paid extra for a reserved parking spot get priority? How many of however many chargers DO get put in can run simultaneously? How much is my electric bill going to go up to pay for all that infrastructure?

 

[Wierdo]

Well, that's great for them, not so great for the people who don't fit that usage model.

And that fractional outlier group will change the current exponential mainstream adoption curve because...?

Sure. IF you can use them the whole way. You still can't go, IIRC, from Dallas to Chicago, to give an example on superchargers.

That sounds like it may have been an issue in 2010, but you can easily travel that route today, and save $140 in gas along the way:

https://www.tesla.com/trips#/?v=MS_2017_100D&o=Dallas, TX, USA_Dallas Dallas County [email protected],-96.79698789999999&s=&d=Chicago, IL, USA_Chicago Cook County [email protected],-87.6297982

 

[1_rick]

And that fractional outlier group will change the current exponential mainstream adoption curve because...?


That sounds like it may have been an issue in 2010, but you can easily travel that route today, and save $140 in gas along the way:

https://www.tesla.com/trips#/?v=MS_2017_100D&o=Dallas, TX, USA_Dallas Dallas County [email protected],-96.79698789999999&s=&d=Chicago, IL, USA_Chicago Cook County [email protected],-87.6297982

Wow, I can hardly wait to extend the trip by 3 hours or so, and I don't believe that gas savings without a cite. Surely you're not couting the free supercharging new owners no longer get.

 

[Wierdo]

Wow, I can hardly wait to extend the trip by 3 hours or so, and I don't believe that gas savings without a cite. Surely you're not couting the free supercharging new owners no longer get.

Some models get it, but superchargers don't charge much regardless, five bucks will often get you across the typical state.

And I have no problem stopping every three hundred miles to stretch my legs or grab a snack, if you don't value your health that's fine, poor wealth and poor health are a choice lol.

The point is that it's not an issue for most responsible drivers, especially those with family and kids, or just old of age, they do stop on trips, some of my older family members actually wouldn't last three hours without stopping.

Road trips in a modern EV are actually a better experience in terms of ride comfort as well.

 

[Axman]

Don't have to tell them anything, they can figure out how to fund their own infrastructure when car companies and gas stations go out of business or transition to EV support.

OK, but you know it's against all kinds of codes to run extension cables across a sidewalk, right? You really think you're going to successfully mandate people to buy cars that can only be slowly charged at specific locations while gas and diesel will absolutely continue to dominate as the primary power source even if you're just looking at commercial vehicles?

Saw two G-Wagons and two Gladiators parked on this block today. All four were in their best colors, black and mud, respectively.

 

[Wierdo]

OK, but you know it's against all kinds of codes to run extension cables across a sidewalk, right? You really think you're going to successfully mandate people to buy cars that can only be slowly charged at specific locations while gas and diesel will absolutely continue to dominate as the primary power source even if you're just looking at commercial vehicles?

Saw two G-Wagons and two Gladiators parked on this block today. All four were in their best colors, black and mud, respectively.

That was just a tongue in cheek suggestion for late adopters.

We already have these mandated for all new construction here. Old properties also get incentives to modernize by state and utility programs. Malls, parking facilities and hotel establishments are leading the charge to lure customers, I can't think of a mall that doesn't offer it here to be honest.

So this is not a local concern in the populous states, it's happening rapidly already.

I'm just saying, those rural towns generally didn't get good cell service either, that meant nothing, it did not stop the world from adopting cellphones rapidly, and those towns eventually caught up later on.

Likewise, they're free to get by with older ICE technology. It doesn't change the fact that EVs are going mainstream, in a few years they'll just be stuck with a limited supply of inferior products to choose from, and then catch up eventually on their own time.

Lets look at the big picture here, the world is moving on rapidly, it's not going to wait for every small town to get on board. Do you have any Blockbusters and Radioshacks in your town? I doubt even the most rural town does anymore, same with legacy auto manufacturing by 2030 probably.

 

[Axman]

I'm just saying, those places often didn't get good cell service either, it didn't stop the world from adopting it rapidly, and those towns eventually caught up later.

Jokes about Sprint aside, I *don't* live in rural America. I live in a crazy-dense urban population. I actually am at the epicenter of a metropolis.

 

[MikeTrike]

Lastly this is all hype still, these batteries don't exist yet, they have a patent for them and that's it, I'm going to REALLY hope they have a prototype done and this isn't vaporware but even so the cost analysis of these is based on the right now, they're changing to a cheaper nickel? (or whatever) guess what commodity is going to start going up in cost...

They've made tens of thousands of test cells, which are likely being quietly tested in things like the Semi and Model S Plaid.

This is way further along than is being "marketed" and that casual observers realize. Because reasons.

They're very likely going have Cybertrucks begin production at Terafactory Austin by next year. I'm going to take a not-so-wild guess as to which cells are necessary to facilitate a 500 mile range in the tri-motor version.

 

[cdabc123]

Some of you are overestimating the push of a electric car. Do you believe a ice vehicle can't fulfill the same gap? The same gap that they have been filling for the last century. Electric cars really arnt that superior at filling peoples needs

 

[MikeTrike]

Some of you are overestimating the push of a electric car. Do you believe a ice vehicle can't fulfill the same gap? The same gap that they have been filling for the last century. Electric cars really arnt that superior at filling peoples needs

I think the main selling points include, but are not limited to: Longer lasting, cheaper to operate/maintain, near future cheaper to buy, total cost of ownership is already at parity or better, consistent power delivery, neato tuxedo features and doodads, almost never need to visit a refueling station because your refueling station is at home, etc.

I still love this and would happily own one in an EV dominated future:


Other people still love these and happily own them:

p.s. I was convinced by my shitty 500e, what Tesla has is already way ahead, and what's coming gives my stock portfolio a raging clue. If the incumbents can manage to stay in the race then good on them too.

 

[cdabc123]

I think the main selling points include, but are not limited to: Longer lasting, cheaper to operate/maintain, near future cheaper to buy, total cost of ownership is already at parity or better, consistent power delivery, neato tuxedo features and doodads, almost never need to visit a refueling station because your refueling station is at home, etc.

I'm not sure about many of those but I have a habit of buying cheap used cars. There will be market pressure before car companies give up on the ice automobile and I have a feeling that generation that happens will be good for ice reliability (people have known how to make a 500k mile ice car for a long time) they just don't right now as its more profitable not too. Power delivery is not a problem for any non anemic car. The speed of traffic is easy to keep up with in any vehicle and that wont change. Features and doodads dont sell me a car. And getting gas is arguably better then taking the time to charge a car.

I know there is a market but the market is not as large as you may think. What about people in apartments or people who street/driveway park there cars. Ice is far more practical for them. Also the things people value in the higher end luxury market are bot nessisarily satisfied by tesla lackluster design compared to the competitors

 

[Wierdo]

Jokes about Sprint aside, I *don't* live in rural America. I live in a crazy-dense urban population. I actually am at the epicenter of a metropolis.

And where would that be exactly? I guess I could imagine a flyover state's "metropolis" being five years behind the modernization curves of the coastal population centers I suppose, for example.

So I'm not going to doubt that assertion out of hand, there are probably some anecdotal outliers.

But it doesn't matter, the point is that the legacy ICE industry cannot survive on just 20 percent of the US market - and maybe the third world - by 2030.

This article about an analyst that did a good job summarizing the challenges for the legacy manufacturers is worth a look:
https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tes...rice-target-to-578-from-400-with-a-buy-rating

No credible competition on the horizon​

It costs traditional OEMs $18K to electrify a car, which results in lost profits and electric models selling at an average $16K premium to ICE equivalents. By contrast, Tesla's cars sell for less than equivalent premium ICE competition. Traditional OEMs therefore cannot compete as long as they do not get to cost parity, and they are still at least 5 years away. EV pure plays are flourishing and doing better, but won't have any competitive advantage to beat Tesla. At best they will follow suit the leading brand in its success, with less scale and less experience.

Hyper-growth and margin expansion​

Only the ramp of production capacity limits Tesla's growth in at least the next 5 years, and we expect virtually no pressure on prices, leading to expanding margins. This means Tesla, as it stands today, will become the largest and most profitable premium car manufacturer in 2026.

TL/DR: It's not a demand concern, just a matter of supply: Demand outstrips supply by over 40 fold at the moment, and that's about to change in three years or so.

 

[Nobu]

I think the main selling points include, but are not limited to: Longer lasting, cheaper to operate/maintain, near future cheaper to buy, total cost of ownership is already at parity or better, consistent power delivery, neato tuxedo features and doodads, almost never need to visit a refueling station because your refueling station is at home, etc.

I still love this and would happily own one in an EV dominated future:


Other people still love these and happily own them:
View attachment 286921

p.s. I was convinced by my shitty 500e, what Tesla has is already way ahead, and what's coming gives my stock portfolio a raging clue. If the incumbents can manage to stay in the race then good on them too.

Eh, when they make a $12k ev I'll probably get one. For now I'll probably drive my $9k Mirage until the wheels fall off. Might even have a good conversion kit by that time.

That said, I do appreciate the progress Tesla (and other companies) are making in EV and battery tech. It's just out of my price range still, for now.

 

[MikeTrike]

I'm not sure about many of those but I have a habit of buying cheap used cars. There will be market pressure before car companies give up on the ice automobile and I have a feeling that generation that happens will be good for ice reliability (people have known how to make a 500k mile ice car for a long time) they just don't right now as its more profitable not too. Power delivery is not a problem for any non anemic car. The speed of traffic is easy to keep up with in any vehicle and that wont change. Features and doodads dont sell me a car. And getting gas is arguably better then taking the time to charge a car.

I know there is a market but the market is not as large as you may think. What about people in apartments or people who street/driveway park there cars. Ice is far more practical for them. Also the things people value in the higher end luxury market are bot nessisarily satisfied by tesla lackluster design compared to the competitors

Lots of people are all to happy to buy shiny new things, which then end up on the used market and depreciate, ultimately ending up further down the ladder as a "cheap used car."

ICE manufacturers can't afford to move quickly regardless, Ford and GM for example have so much crippling debt and limited cash on hand that it's going to be nearly impossible to pivot. Ford is already selling vehicles at negative margin, GM is at least partnered with LG Chem and has their various EVs in the pipeline. However I don't believe GM will be able to keep cost under control there, and to compete would need to sell them at a loss. I believe that the incumbents have a huge f'n mess to sort out just to stay in the fight.

I imagine apartments will adopt the trend of revising their marketing to include "EV friendly parking spaces" and other such things to attract a new generation of EV folks.

I feel similarly about street parking:

Tesla's endgame is mass market, starting high and working their way down the ladder. It has taken them some time and effort but they're finally firing on all cylinders to to speak.

 

[MikeTrike]

Eh, when they make a $12k ev I'll probably get one. For now I'll probably drive my $9k Mirage until the wheels fall off. Might even have a good conversion kit by that time.

That said, I do appreciate the progress Tesla (and other companies) are making in EV and battery tech. It's just out of my price range still, for now.

My shitty 500e was $8,500, used of course, I've seen them as low as $4k~ on the wholesale market. I intend to drive the shit out of it as well, makes for an excellent commuter and grocery getter.

 

[Nafensoriel]

Don't have to tell them anything, they can figure out how to fund their own infrastructure when car companies and gas stations go out of business or transition to EV support.

Both California and NY are banning ICE by 2030 in their markets, and the EU and China have similar measures, people there are not going to buy obsoleted technology, and companies that don't transition will not survive the competitors that do.

It's an EV, it can work with any plug, the infrastructure is basically laid out already for every home, but people will get tired of using extension cords and the infrastructure will further modernize for the rest of the rural population by demand, kinda like broadband. Businesses are already starting to offer them in malls and hotels to attract customers across the nation.

/snip

If you think the plug at the end of the chain matters when you are going to be drawing megawatts more power from the grid over an entire city you are extremely delusional.
Most new homes in North America are 200 amps. A tesla wall charger requires between 40 and 60 amps just to operate. You are talking about every single home suddenly needing to draw a third of its power. If you had any experience with the 100amp to 200amp transition you would know that it is most certainly not simple, cheap, or even complete nationally in America or Canada. Home owners don't understand "you cant run your stove, dryer, and charge your car at the same time" so there will be an inevitable bump at the panel to 300amps soon once EVs continue to roll out.

Grid level... California keeps getting mentioned. Their grid is a dumpster fire that cannot handle what they currently draw without causing FIRES. Add even 10% more EVs in some places and you will see grid level failures.

Don't get me wrong I actually love electrics and I have work trucks. I would love the reliability of electric trucks especially on plant site. I just know(probably better than most) how difficult it is to actually roll out and what kind of actually serious drawbacks come with non commuter usage. City commuting is the target and if governments ever get off their arses and build actual power plants and upgrade the grid EV adoption will be a GOOD thing.

That said even California isn't actually "banning" ICE. Is it really "Banned" when you can drive across state lines and buy an H3 and drive it back? California is doing what it usually does and offloads its problems to other states while patting themselves on the backs for being progressive. Oh people have to pay more to get a vehicle that works? Oh well that's the "envirotax".

Tesla promises a ton... but then their manufacturing quality is shite. Their promises always underdeliver. Until I can touch these new cells I will remain skeptical. At this point I trust Ford and Toyota to actually provide a meaningful EV more than tesla. At least they understand how to build an autobody frame.

 

[Wierdo]

Most new homes in North America are 200 amps. A tesla wall charger requires between 40 and 60 amps just to operate. You are talking about every single home suddenly needing to draw a third of its power. If you had any experience with the 100amp to 200amp transition you would know that it is most certainly not simple, cheap, or even complete nationally in America or Canada. Home owners don't understand "you cant run your stove, dryer, and charge your car at the same time" so there will be an inevitable bump at the panel to 300amps soon once EVs continue to roll out.

You don't actually really need a wall charger, that's just a nice convenience that just bring other features to the table. They actually provide the 120/240v adapters with the vehicles as well.

You can use a 240v connection just fine, most garages have those and I actually think they're perfectly fine option personally.

Even a 120v outlet works, but it limits charging speed too much so I wouldn't depend on that one unless needed in a pinch:


(https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/problems-with-120v-charging.108577/)

You can also set how much Amperage you want the vehicle to draw as well, and even set some conditions on when to charge etc.

Here's one the related screens for example:

(https://acworks.com/blogs/ac-works-...-limits-how-to-change-them-and-why-you-should)

 

[Nafensoriel]

You don't actually really need a wall charger, that's just a nice convenience. They provide the 120/240v adapters with the vehicles as well.

You can use a 240v outlet just fine, most garages have those and I actually think they're perfectly fine option personally.

Even a 120v outlet works, but it limits charging speed too much so I wouldn't depend on that one unless needed in a pinch:
/snip

Except that doesn't mean jack and squat to the standard consumer. How many educated consumers have you met?
The standard buyer when EVs become "mainstream" will want that charger because it exists.

Also just a FYI all USA/CAD households are 240v(HGH). Yes I know true 120v charging exists but I also professionally don't think that will last once adoption grows because of really hard limits to 120v for large batteries and its stupid simple to run a 240v to the garage for new builds.

Lowering the amps actually makes the problem worse btw. You are extending the charge time in a nonliner fashion in most cases which means more(and different) grid stress not less.
Unless the world decides nuclear is good I'm not entirely sure you want a green energy grid to draw similarly night and day for a city.

Confession... I've also driven both the S and the 3 thanks to coworkers who purchased them(yes even ONG folk buy electric!) and while everyone loved the actual cars(minus some quirks in the S) we also ripped the really bad engineering mistakes in both models up one side and down the other. That's pretty much what you have to keep in mind with tesla. They are rushing so hard to iterate that they forget sometimes you have to pause and refine in engineering. These batteries are promising the moon but I will bet real world money that they require 3x the development time the worst case predictions state and underdeliver.

 

[DWolvin]

I know there are hard feelings on both sides, but I'm coming from the side of loving weird sporty cars (Saab 900s / 2nd gen RX-7) and my 3 had been at least as much fun. long trips take longer on paper, but the ease of driving and the speed of superchargers makes it a moot point- I may arrive a couple of hours later, but I'm also not tired and unable to party. And I didn't opt for the fancy tesla charger, but just an RV hookup (14-50 nema, weatherproof). It's fully able to put all 300 miles in overnight, and I can barely see it on the electrical bill. I know it's there, but it's much less than running A/C or when the missus leaves the big halogen light on in in the bathroom makeup area (seriously; how does anyone need 2400 watts of light to get ready for work?). The Tesla and other smart chargers do charge faster, but they also have the added benefit of not just charging in the middle of the night on cheap electricity, but also being tied to the smart grid, so they can remotely reduce / pause charging if the grid needs it. Annoying, but better than a brownout. Anyway; not perfect, but pretty great, getting better constantly, cheap per mile operation, faster than all but one vehicle that I've owned (one motorcycle could outrun it 0-60).

There is a running joke: Don't test drive if you are not ready to swap vehicles. I drove a BMW i3, and even that torque was impressive (second fastest 0-60~ish in BMW's normal lineup).

edited because typing is hard

 

[Wierdo]

Confession... I've also driven both the S and the 3 thanks to coworkers who purchased them(yes even ONG folk buy electric!) and while everyone loved the actual cars(minus some quirks in the S) we also ripped the really bad engineering mistakes in both models up one side and down the other.

Hey you're not wrong there, the early Model 3 was a mechanical engineering mess on top of a world class circuit-board, it technically worked fine in terms of function, but was overly complicated - in an unproductive way - and thus difficult and costly to manufacture. You can find some good examples of that on RichRebuilds's Youtube channel, they run a shop that repairs old Teslas.

Sandy Munro initially ripped on the design mistakes of the early Model 3s pretty badly, was absolutely unimpressed with the shell, before getting shocked by the advanced level of technology under the hood later on.

Eventually most of his complaints were addressed, and by the time he tore down the Model Y this year his views changed dramatically in this area, now he's actually impressed with the progress, though with a couple criticisms still, so the company is far from standing still.



They've come a long way since those early days, they make mistakes but they learn really quick, it's one of the advantages of being a scrappy startup, not as much of that old corporate baggage.

The company went from junk to pioneer in manufacturing recently, the first to embrace "mega-casting" in the industry, which replaces hundreds of parts with two. I don't think one can criticize their current designs as being subpar anymore, sure it's hard to track all their improvements and retrofits because they do them regularly instead of waiting on model years, but that's more a pro than a con.

But the one thing that they seem to need to get a handle on, though, is their QA department in Fremont imho. The Chinese factory's Model 3s seem to be much better in terms of fit and finish, and it might be related to Fremont being an old factory that's kinda a kludge when it comes to making EVs, while the one in Shanghai is a clean slate. I hope this means the massive Texas facility will address this shortcoming.

 

[GiGaBiTe]

Both California and NY are banning ICE by 2030 in their markets, and the EU and China have similar measures, people there are not going to buy obsoleted technology, and companies that don't transition will not survive the competitors that do.

Banning a technology does not make it obsolete, it just shows how out of touch with reality the government is. The California bureaucracy has been regulating their economy out of existence for the past 30 years, and it shows with the ever increasing waves of people leaving the state and the perpetual collapse of their economy. Banning fossil fuels will just further contract their economy and basically shut themselves out of the world market, since the only people left by then will be the extremely rich and the extremely poor, with nobody between.

California literally cannot afford more EVs on the power grid. The power grid for the entire state has been in a dilapidated state for years due to inadequate funding. Now they're having rolling blackouts due to stiff environmental regulations shutting down power plants and their power grid literally burning itself to the ground.

It's an EV, it can work with any plug, the infrastructure is basically laid out already for every home, but people will get tired of using extension cords and the infrastructure will further modernize for the rest of the rural population by demand, kinda like broadband. Businesses are already starting to offer them in malls and hotels to attract customers across the nation.

Sorry, but you have absolutely no idea what you're talking about. No power grid anywhere in the US has the capacity for everyone to suddenly start drawing 50-100 amps for hours on end. Power companies have horrible problems EVERY YEAR with summer demand from people just running their air conditioners and have to implement rolling blackouts, or have people suffer from brownouts or power grid failure. Slapping an EV charger on the wall in your garage doesn't magically work.

So yeah, sure, there will be pockets of aging infrastructure in the nation, but it's not the first time technology becomes mainstream before it reaches the niche corners of the rural market.

Major metropolitan areas have some of the worst infrastructure in the country, especially really old metropolitan areas. In many cases, you have over a hundred years of underground lines that were never designed to have the loads they now have placed on them and are running over capacity. Heck, New York still has Thomas Edison's DC service in some areas from the late 1800s.

Replacing and/or upgrading that infrastructure will cost billions of dollars, because unlike suburban and rural areas, you have to tear up major roadways and sidewalks to get at the stuff. If anything, suburban areas would probably see grid upgrades long before a major metropolitan area would.

 

[1_rick]

Sorry, but you have absolutely no idea what you're talking about.

You don't expect an answer, do you? He's ignored my bringing that up like three times now.

 

[Wierdo]

Well you guys keep denying the global trends, I'll be busy investing in the new economy lol. Doesn't bother me.



(https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tes...gth-in-the-most-difficult-year-of-this-decade)

The quarterly figures also confirm a gradual recovery in sales. Despite the sluggish growth of other automakers, Tesla jumps big, selling 154.7% more cars than in Q2 2020.

 

[cdabc123]

Well you guys keep denying things, I'll be busy investing in the new economy lol. Doesn't bother me.

View attachment 286973

(https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tes...gth-in-the-most-difficult-year-of-this-decade)

hahahaha I find it ironic how many people are boasting about tesla stock.

The only reason tesla has materialized into a actual company is continuous investor support till they had enough of a company to sell investors on it.

Its not the magical exception to buisness everone belives it to be. Its a bunch of money burnt to keep a company thats good at attracting more investor attention.

 

[GiGaBiTe]

You don't expect an answer, do you? He's ignored my bringing that up like three times now.

Nope, don't expect a reply from him. It's very obvious he's smoking some strong peyote and doesn't want to hear otherwise.

Well you guys keep denying the global trends, I'll be busy investing in the new economy lol. Doesn't bother me.

The current global trends are investing in stupidity and ignorance, nobody with any common sense is going to subscribe to that. It's like the dot com bubble 20 years ago where everyone lost their shirts on dumb ideas.

 

[SmokeRngs]

Well you guys keep denying the global trends, I'll be busy investing in the new economy lol. Doesn't bother me.

View attachment 286973

(https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tes...gth-in-the-most-difficult-year-of-this-decade)

Global trends mean nothing once they run into reality. The reality is electric cars have no chance to be a primary form of travel any time soon in the US. Power generation won't support it. The power infrastructure such as power lines and homes won't support it. There are no places to put chargers for many places such as for people who park on the street or even many apartment buildings/complexes. These are only a few of the problems and all of them must be solved, not just one or two of them before it could possibly become a reality.

Here are a couple of scenarios for you to figure out the answers for. My old apartment complex consisted of quite a few buildings, all of which consisted of eight apartments each. All the parking was outdoors next to the buildings. There was no assigned parking. Where are you going to put all the chargers for the people living there? Who is going to pay for all the chargers to be installed? What happens when you have visitors who need to charge their vehicles before they leave? Is there going to be any parking at all for visitors since the spaces would need to be assigned? Even if they get a space, how do you deal with them needing to charge their vehicles since someone has to pay for the electricity they use?

Currently I'm living basically in the middle of nowhere. There are four people here and four vehicles. There is a garage but it's not next to the house and it only has two bays. How are you going to setup charging in this scenario? At least two vehicles must be parked outside at all times. What happens when we have company, some of whom live quite a distance away and will have to recharge before they can leave? Some of these visitors are only around for hours such as for certain holidays and there are quite a few of them with quite a few vehicles and they all need to recharge the vehicles. How am I supposed to deal with several extra vehicles while still needing to maintain power for house and other things? What happens during the winter when power can be out for a day or more? The wood furnace in the garage can keep that nice and cozy so we aren't going to freeze to death and the small generator is enough to run space heaters in the house to make sure pipes don't freeze but that's definitely not going to do any good with charging up to four vehicles. By the way, one of the vehicles is a 3/4 ton diesel truck and it's used for quite a bit of pulling. Battery tech sure as hell isn't nearly advanced enough to replace the diesel in that truck without needing to stop and recharge every 50-100 miles with some of the loads it pulls.

The people calling electric vehicles some sort of panacea don't have the first clue about what they are speaking about. They don't have any idea of the problems which must be fixed before electric vehicles can be more than a novelty. They also don't understand the amount of money required to make all of those changes.

Go ahead and parade the idiocy of California and other places saying they are banning anything but electric vehicles for new sales at some made up future date. It's not going to happen. California can't supply enough power for people to keep the a/c on in their homes when it's hot. What makes you think there's any chance of some sort of electric vehicle revolution coming anytime soon when all the signs point to it being literally impossible?

 

[Verge]

This was a good laymen's summary about why battery day basically spelled the impending end of the ICE age:


Looks like allot of retail investors are gonna be millionaires riding this generation's Amazon. A blast from the past:
https://twitter.com/xiang_aw/status/1301032188025081858

Same cases of cynicism and doubt, same cases of a group spotting the trend and catching that bus as Wallstreet grumbles and scratches its head about yet another market disruption.

One man's incomprehension is another man's opportunity lol

They aren't getting any more range out of the new cells... what is this bro talking about. Energy density still the same.

 

[MikeTrike]

Man I went to sleep and missed a bunch... Also I charge on a standard 120V wall outlet exclusively just because I want people to know how ignorant they are. Granted if I drove longer distances each day I'd need to consider using my 16A@240V to halve my recharge time.

Basically not everyone needs high speed recharging and should use the right till for the job.

 

[Wierdo]

hahahaha I find it ironic how many people are boasting about tesla stock.

The only reason tesla has materialized into a actual company is continuous investor support till they had enough of a company to sell investors on it.

Its not the magical exception to buisness everone belives it to be. Its a bunch of money burnt to keep a company thats good at attracting more investor attention.

Both Tesla and NextEra, renewables companies, have passed Exxon in market cap, that should be a wake up call for people on how this obvious trend is the tip of the iceberg really, but if it's not, then all is good, don't worry, go back to sleep lol.

https://cleantechnica.com/2020/10/0...y-nextera-surpasses-exxonmobil-in-market-cap/

Since the beginning of this year, ExxonMobil lost more than half of its value. It dropped down to $137.9 billion from its peak of more than $500 billion back in 2007. This decline shows that the energy industry is slowly moving away from oil in the direction of clean energy. With companies such as NextEra leading the way — especially during the pandemic — demand is in favor of renewable energy. See: “Solar Power = 60% of New US Power Capacity in June.”

Don't shoot the messenger, just follow the new money.

 

[Wierdo]

They aren't getting any more range out of the new cells... what is this bro talking about. Energy density still the same.

There's an increase in range, but I don't think it's from a change in the battery chemistry itself yet, something else is behind the 16 percent at that step of the presentation, I think it will be more related to the overall pack redesign, I bet they achieved allot of weight savings there, but we'll see.

Maybe when the 520+ mile range Model S plaid comes out next year someone will dig into that, if they're brave enough to take apart a $140k vehicle lol. We'll see if Munro would do it, depends on the customers, hopefully a Chinese or Korean competitor will foot the bill again.