Tesla's New Tabless Electrode Battery Cell Patent Is 'Way More Important Than It Sounds' says crazy-person Elon Musk

[cdabc123]

Engine efficiency is not really hurt by current regulation. Honestly using an ICE to actually power a drivetrain is a really awful idea. Transmissions are horrible. What you can do with a 500lb engine I can do with a 5lb electric motor full stop all day long. Heck STEAM is more efficient AND more powerful.


The question you should be asking is: If EVs need novel materials that may never happen and gasoline has very limited room to grow.... why don't we just change the fuel so ICEs can continue to get smaller, lighter, and more efficient at their jobs?
Sometimes people get so obsessed with the new that they forget the older technology is far easier to improve if you just change one variable.

Restrictive exhaust directly hurts ICE efficiency. Thats bs about a 5lb electric motor. you can get about 3hp out of a 5lb motor. Additionally, a electric drivetrain (including the battery) weighs more then a ice drive train (including a full fuel tank).

Have any suggestions for a fuel that can be produced in the quantities used by automobiles? It also has to be relatively stable. compressed gasses are a pain. Currently we commonly use:
Gas, Diesel, Compressed natural gas, Propane

 

[Nafensoriel]

The report came from the ex-CEO of BP, and you have to realize that the statement is not something that is good for the oilfield industry; quite the opposite. Its essentially explaining why they are abandoning billions in exploration, because relatively new technologies such as fracking have drastically increased cheap available known sources of oil. The US, once the world's largest importer of oil, has recently become a net exporter (prior to the COVID market disruption), just to put things in perspective.

While you may argue that the figures may be off by a few decades plus or minus, what is clear is that the fear mongering of "peak oil" (popularized in our culture by movies like Mad Max) has come and gone and proven to be another complete hoax from the left. How many hoaxes of imminent doom do we have to hear before we stop pretending they have any credibility left?

Its not really important for my point of "What is important is the power to weight ratio of the powertrain. And were it not for constant regulations trying to hurt the efficiency of ICE, we could all have pint-sized engines making 1000hp today." We had no engines in the 1920s with the power to weight ratio of the 1.5 liter turbocharged engines in the mid 80s F1 vehicles.

This is such a ridiculous comment considering it took us so many decades just to get back to the power levels of the 1960s thanks to punitive regulations on ICE which damn near destroyed the established automotive industry that were invested in larger vehicles, which can be likened to the asteroid that wiped out all the large dinosaurs.

EV battery technology will continue to improve and the batteries will become lighter and cheaper, which is a good thing and I support it. Gasoline and diesel are not problematic fuel sources, so I'm not sure what you're on about there. We can produce them in tremendous abundance and they have fantastic energy density, and being a liquid means recharging rates that aren't likely to be seen anytime soon on EVs. The biggest problem with ICE right now is that the landscape is ever changing, with regulations constantly and intentionally being juggled left and right, where such a moving goalpost makes engine design so complicated.

The worst culprit are the EU regulators that have no automotive knowledge and whose only goal seems to be stop the people from having affordable personal mobility, as one year they'll put in rules that hurt large naturally aspirated engines (like displacement taxes) and then the next they'll put in new laws that target small turbocharged engines, and this causes huge developmental costs for the manufacturers that have to pass that on to consumers. Porsche rightfully went on a rant about this recently, how they think their rather new turbocharged engine can no longer be viable under Euro 7 so all that money is flushed down the toilet and the catalytic converters required to meet the ridiculous regulations would be so massive as to be unviable to fit on subcompact and compact performance vehicles.

If we had the same limited regulations and taxes as in the 1960s that remained static until today, cars would be so much cheaper and higher performance, and particularly without all the artificial government interference propping up companies like Tesla, its unlikely we'd see any all electric cars on the roads yet as there just wouldn't be any market demand for it, and instead we'd just see a few mild hybrids.

I will repeat... there is no one on the planet who has ever guessed correctly or even closely as to the limits of our reserves. I also state that one very common theme among people of wealth is to claim they have none.
No one in economics right or left actually has data to back up peak oil claims. The best estimation out there still suggest over 50 years of oil production and consumption at or in excess of current levels.

We have pint sized engines that can produce 1000hp(technically 800hp). There are hard physical limits to size and kw of energy possible. No regulation stopped the development of those engines. Extreme engineering difficulty in getting a high torque high rpm motor to not... you know... explode randomly was the only reason its taken this long. There is zero regulatory limitation on the production or design of ICE that will impact its end point performance. There is arguments for vehicles and performance however though every single case is more cost related rather than performance related.

There is zero "slump" in engine or dynamo power curves. We have been advancing those engines since they were first dreamed up. There is no old engine that is magically better than new engines. Modern ICE are magic compared to early versions of the 1920s.

If you have zero idea why gasoline is a problematic resource then you have never touched a rig or worked at a refinery in your life. Gasoline is toxic garbage. It sucks. Its dangerous, temperamental, and toxic garbage. It's only useful claim to fame is cheapness and energy density. Even diesel is terrible at the job its best at(turning a dynamo) when compared to other fuels. I will always have a special place in my head in thanks for diesel dragging our civilization out of the technological stone age but there are far better things on the horizon. Benzene and Toluene should never be allowed anywhere near an organic thing period dot end. I wont go into the EU because the EU is... well the EU. Its a bees nest of corruption for everything and has been for thousands of years.

Regulation isn't remotely as bad as you think. Remember I work in this industry. There is no one(not even the old farts like me) who wants to go back to the "old days" unless they are terminally stupid from inhaling to much benzene. For one... we make more money with regulations oddly enough... mostly because they were things we were going to do industry wise anyway. Taxes are the biggest gripe. Governments think we are free piggy banks and we really aren't. Farting on a refinery comes with a 5000 dollar charge. I swear I've seen more young engineers break down over valve overload than anyone would believe. True the USA version may be more pita now but I haven't worked there in decades.

-------------------------
About china...

M100 isn't remotely as corrosive as you seem to think it is. It also isn't actually the methanol that is corrosive. This is a huge and very common misconception.
Methanol fuel was seen as corrosive because old refining methods(1980s) were not remotely as good as they are today and would allow far more water into the end product. Steam is brutal to metal especially under compression.
Modern M100 uses very few additives but it does not have the corrosion effects of the 1980s tests... not even remotely close. This doesn't even touch on advancements in alloys used in engines and O-rings. I could convert any car you own to methanol fuel in a day and you wouldn't even notice the difference except your exhaust would stop smelling. Even at current costs you would see a maximum of 30% cost increase as well for gasoline and less than 12% for diesel. Methanol is more a diesel replacement than a gasoline one. Electric is the direct competition to gasoline.

Additionally you don't use food to make methanol. You CAN draw feed gas from landfills to produce it but using "fresh" crop food would be a very bad idea and very inefficient.

China has been using more than 7500 taxies on pure m100 for over 20 years as a study and their results showed it curb stomped gas/diesel for industries that cannot realistically switch to electric. They also produce more than 75% of the worlds supply of methanol and are rapidly scaling up these processes. Why? Coal and NG are cheap and very effective sources of feed gas for production and they have absurd supplies of both. Even for the environmentalists it also is a safe way to process both without releasing methane or CO2 as well. Also it plays well to their culture and politics. China HATES relying on anyone but china. They also have a government which can just edict hundred year plans that dont change suddenly.

 

[Nafensoriel]

Restrictive exhaust directly hurts ICE efficiency. Thats bs about a 5lb electric motor. you can get about 3hp out of a 5lb motor. Additionally, a electric drivetrain (including the battery) weighs more then a ice drive train (including a full fuel tank).

Have any suggestions for a fuel that can be produced in the quantities used by automobiles? It also has to be relatively stable. compressed gasses are a pain. Currently we commonly use:
Gas, Diesel, Compressed natural gas, Propane

Vehicle limitations are not engine limitations. Pedantic yes but still true. Exhaust restrictions in modern cars are below 10%. Older cars get more yes but honestly its a very overblown theory that going back cat is actually doing anything significant.

Methanol. Works in everything gas works in with minor seals updates. Actually will prolong the life of the engine with proper additives.
In 25 years you could probably replace most North American ship diesel, trains, and trucks fuel supply with far less cost than a competing oil setup. A "small" 1m ton/yr would fit on a medium sized industrial plot and would need minimal upgrade to the gas pipelines if using NG and cost 1billionish with older tech. There is tech for larger plants(Iran just popped up a 7000ton/day unit). This technology is very scalable and I am not kidding when I say you can put it ANYWHERE. If you have natural gas and CO2 you can print methanol.
USA EPA tests and studies have categorically stated it is also superior and safer to gasoline both for human contact, land, and waterways. Dump benzene into a lake.. never drink it again. Dump methanol into a lake.. Wait 12 years or boil it out.

 

[Ducman69]

No regulation stopped the development of those engines. Extreme engineering difficulty in getting a high torque high rpm motor to not... you know... explode randomly was the only reason its taken this long. There is zero regulatory limitation on the production or design of ICE that will impact its end point performance.

Its quite blatantly obvious that you're a shill for the methanol industry, as no one could be that dense to genuinely believe that fleet fuel economy, displacement taxes, and the plethora of emissions regulations have no impact on engine performance and costs.

For example, in the 1960s we had the Mustang Super Cobra Jet which was underrated for insurance/government reasons but made around 400hp and the Camaro ZL1 made around 500hp. Then the government stepped in and put in a ton of punitive regulations that massively increased engine costs while reducing their performance, and they even coined a term for this catastrophic event called the "malaise era" where cars just frankly sucked for an entire decade, and you had third generation Mustang Cobras with V8s making 115hp and the Z28's V8 was down to 165hp. Heck, even Ferraris of that era like the 308 on Magnum Pi only made a tick over 230hp thanks to US over-regulation, despite decades of technological advancements from the 60s.

Frankly, its rather insulting that you think so little of our intelligence to even attempt to peddle such obvious lies. Sad.

 

[cdabc123]

Vehicle limitations are not engine limitations. Pedantic yes but still true. Exhaust restrictions in modern cars are below 10%. Older cars get more yes but honestly its a very overblown theory that going back cat is actually doing anything significant.

Methanol. Works in everything gas works in with minor seals updates. Actually will prolong the life of the engine with proper additives.
In 25 years you could probably replace most North American ship diesel, trains, and trucks fuel supply with far less cost than a competing oil setup. A "small" 1m ton/yr would fit on a medium sized industrial plot and would need minimal upgrade to the gas pipelines if using NG and cost 1billionish with older tech. There is tech for larger plants(Iran just popped up a 7000ton/day unit). This technology is very scalable and I am not kidding when I say you can put it ANYWHERE. If you have natural gas and CO2 you can print methanol.
USA EPA tests and studies have categorically stated it is also superior and safer to gasoline both for human contact, land, and waterways. Dump benzene into a lake.. never drink it again. Dump methanol into a lake.. Wait 12 years or boil it out.

Methanol has less then half the energy density gas has. Not saying you cant run a engine on it but that much of a energy differnce requires more then just a seal change to be efficient. As far as ships go they would need an entirely differnt setup as the sludge they currently run on is FAR differnt then methonal. It also wont do anything for engine life as fuel is not really what is causing wear. The cats are a restriction. Modern engines are tuned with that in mind so wont benifits from the removal of them but there are gains to be realized on a tuned engine with no cats.

 

[Nafensoriel]

Methanol has less then half the energy density gas has. Not saying you cant run a engine on it but that much of a energy differnce requires more then just a seal change to be efficient. As far as ships go they would need an entirely differnt setup as the sludge they currently run on is FAR differnt then methonal. It also wont do anything for engine life as fuel is not really what is causing wear. The cats are a restriction. Modern engines are tuned with that in mind so wont benifits from the removal of them but there are gains to be realized on a tuned engine with no cats.

Yep nothing here was incorrect. Not entirely full story though.
Ship engines do need redesigns to make the most of the less dense fuel but it has marked advantages and the construction of new hulls centered around these advantages has already been happening for years. Mostly compared to ship diesel methanol burns cleaner and requires a higher compression for optimal usage(slower burn). For power generation purposes a well designed methanol engine is looking to actually surpass a diesel option in both efficiency and power to weight. This is mostly due to the fact that you can gut the weight of the things compared to diesel engines and the slower burn tends to allow for more work to be done by the combustion similar to how we slowed down gunpowder burns back in the day. The fact that a byproduct is water also allows for some fun cooling options as well.

Fuel wear is actually a thing with alcohol fuels. Removing water is much more difficult for alcohol refining than it is gasoline. When people first started to look at alternative fuels methanol had a serious issue with water. It caused mark degradation of pistons and cylinders at nearly five times the rate of gasoline. There are secondary effects on certain metal alloys as well especially aluminum. That said we have methanol resistant aluminum alloys now that are comparable in cost.

For a car engine you will see a 36-45% increased fuel usage without a modified engine. When I say modified I mean physically. We can adjust a modern vehicle with a simple flash to its onboard. Converting a passenger car or truck is very simple compared to say a NG conversion. As I said china has done much of the legwork on this physically. A 20 year study that they expected to be a failure but ended up a huge success is hard to argue with.

Engines for vehicles stopped being about raw horsepower some time ago. Brute force is inefficient on fuel and just like the rocket equation there are trinities of engine weight, engine power, and fuel weight for getting a vehicle to do its job. In many cases "more HP" is not the right answer. Look at modern trucks. a 7th gen fords motor is only incrementally better than an Fseries engine wise(380ish hp to 380ish hp). The weights of the vehicles are comparable and their max work loads are comparable. What changed was how we put things together. There are significantly more parts and dodads(and oh gods comfort) inside the new fseries over the old 7th. We peaked on what we needed for performance and now focus on providing more efficiency to do the same job and comfort. Same thing with ships and trains really. Aircraft are a bit weirder but eh they fly. Only time a ship flies is if its hydrofoil or something really bad happened...

/edit duuur Brain failed at remembering things.


@Ducman69
So I'm a nuclear shill, a methanol shill, and a natural gas shill all at once? Yeah makes sense. I tend to talk about technologies that actually work. Do I get a paycheck for it?
You seem to be under the very mistaken impression that more engine is always superior. Having 1000hp in a car is just... dumb. There are physical limits on how much energy can move around quickly in an ICE tied to a transmission driving on rubber tires. A passenger car driving on speed restricted roads that has more than 350hp is an absolute ridiculous waste of a car. You may feel otherwise for various reasons and that's fine. I understand the thrill of big engines. I just don't think building a tool so far beyond its intended usage is good engineering.

 

[Ducman69]

So I'm a nuclear shill, a methanol shill, and a natural gas shill all at once?

Yes, because methanol is typically made from natural gas, and nuclear is a non-competing dead industry in the US so there's no harm in praising it.

You seem to be under the very mistaken impression that more engine is always superior. Having 1000hp in a car is just... dumb.

And you seem to be quite intellectually dishonest, pretending to be completely oblivious to the points made, and then when pointed out how wrong your counter-arguments are you stick on a tangent that isn't at all germane to the original point. No, we don't need 1.3K horsepower in a grocery getter, but my point was the fact that we could accomplish that in the 1980s with a tiny four-banger engine when there are no emissions regulations demonstrates how government regulations can choke an industry, especially relevant since at that time in the 80s as pointed out street cars that did have to abide by all the new regulations had big V8s barely breaking 100hp. That means that were we still using regulations of the 1960s today, we'd have incredibly inexpensive, reliable, and simple to maintain 300hp grocery getters. I'm done with this circus, but will just reiterate the point one last time... governments are and have been actively working to limit personal mobility to the upper class and push the plebs into mass transit. The easiest way to achieve that politically is to simply price the average Joe and Jane out of the market, using guilt and fear mongering as motivation tools to silence dissenting voices.

You can do that with regressive fuel taxes, gas guzzler taxes, displacement taxes, by creating ever changing restrictive regulations that make achieving a certain horsepower ever more expensive, or heck like in Singapore sell permits to own a car to only the highest bidders, while simultaneously subsidizing expensive new electric Teslas and Porsches they can't afford but benefit the upper class who can then enjoy more ample parking and less congestion on their roads as the plebs are forced to live in apartments in certain parts of town near mass transit options in which you can pack them like cattle and exercise more control on them and make them dependent on the government to get around.

I don't really care about methanol, other than that I don't want it mixed into my fuel as a way to destroy perfectly good older vehicles, because we have abundant cheap gasoline with highest energy density and I don't want it getting any government subsidies because I believe in the free market.

 

[Nafensoriel]

Yes, because methanol is typically made from natural gas, and nuclear is a non-competing dead industry in the US so there's no harm in praising it.

And you seem to be quite intellectually dishonest, pretending to be completely oblivious to the points made, and then when pointed out how wrong your counter-arguments are you stick on a tangent that isn't at all germane to the original point. No, we don't need 1.3K horsepower in a grocery getter, but my point was the fact that we could accomplish that in the 1980s with a tiny four-banger engine when there are no emissions regulations demonstrates how government regulations can choke an industry, especially relevant since at that time in the 80s as pointed out street cars that did have to abide by all the new regulations had big V8s barely breaking 100hp. That means that were we still using regulations of the 1960s today, we'd have incredibly inexpensive, reliable, and simple to maintain 300hp grocery getters. I'm done with this circus, but will just reiterate the point one last time... governments are and have been actively working to limit personal mobility to the upper class and push the plebs into mass transit. The easiest way to achieve that politically is to simply price the average Joe and Jane out of the market, using guilt and fear mongering as motivation tools to silence dissenting voices.

You can do that with regressive fuel taxes, gas guzzler taxes, displacement taxes, by creating ever changing restrictive regulations that make achieving a certain horsepower ever more expensive, or heck like in Singapore sell permits to own a car to only the highest bidders, while simultaneously subsidizing expensive new electric Teslas and Porsches they can't afford but benefit the upper class who can then enjoy more ample parking and less congestion on their roads as the plebs are forced to live in apartments in certain parts of town near mass transit options in which you can pack them like cattle and exercise more control on them and make them dependent on the government to get around.

I don't really care about methanol, other than that I don't want it mixed into my fuel as a way to destroy perfectly good older vehicles, because we have abundant cheap gasoline with highest energy density and I don't want it getting any government subsidies because I believe in the free market.

Yes.... yes... Noncompeting dead end industry. Totally why they are approving and certifying an aSMR design next year and totally why Canada is actually building them.

So let me get this straight...
You think the USA regulated engines to death... and no one else on the planet took that opportunity to zoom straight past us?
You also think an alcohol fuel somehow is bad for the country with the largest natural gas reserves on the planet? Never mind the fact its cheaper, safer, and far more economically friendly to american markets.
I also don't understand how you think cars are somehow more expensive now than previously. A model T with inflation is what? 21k USD? By inflation cars have actually stayed pretty close to parity or gotten cheaper with inflation since the 1995. Hell the real reason the automotive sector got hit in the 80s was due to Iran and Asian cars just being more fuel efficient at the time.

Honestly though I still cant get over that I'm a methanol shill. I mean... industry wise we've never had a shill before. Could be fun?

 

[Nafensoriel]

If people are curious this is DTIs(Danish Technological In report on its tests of methanol. It might give more insight into why EVs only is a poor choice and hopefully educate people in what actual scientists and engineers are doing to improve things.
http://danskbiomethanol.dk/Papers/Report DK.pdf
https://www.iea-amf.org/app/webroot/files/file/Annex Reports/AMF_Annex_56.pdf

If you can read Chinese look at Geely. This report and its findings have been repeated by over a dozen governmental organizations worldwide as of 2020.

 

[qdemn7]

You know, I used to think this man was competent. And maybe he was, but ever since he started consorting with celebrities and musicians he has just kind of gone off the deep end.

I can't take anything he says seriously anymore.

He can consort with damn near anyone as long as he keeps his space and EV programs going.

 

[qdemn7]

Yeah I live in non-rural America. I live in a rich white neighborhood. The kind of neighborhood where people don't have garages, just the newcomers with their McMansions; everyone else parks their cars -- often old but tastefully maintained -- on the street.

So when they can't charge a Tesla, they buy G-Wagons and call it a day.

Unless you can move this neighborhood, and the others like it, then charging is a non-starter. Good luck telling the monied folk they can just charge their cars at the car-charger with this rich and white

Yeah I live in non-rural America. I live in a rich white neighborhood. The kind of neighborhood where people don't have garages, just the newcomers with their McMansions; everyone else parks their cars -- often old but tastefully maintained -- on the street.

So when they can't charge a Tesla, they buy G-Wagons and call it a day.

Unless you can move this neighborhood, and the others like it, then charging is a non-starter. Good luck telling the monied folk they can just charge their cars at the car-charger with the rest of the plebs.

Just proves that being rich and white does not correlate with common sense.

 

[DWolvin]

Don't these McMansions have driveways? That's all they would need. Maybe a carport if afraid of electricity leakage...

 

[Axman]

Just proves that being rich and white does not correlate with common sense.

So do you want me to demolish my office, rip out my sprinklers, and cut a hole in my fence, to pave a few feet into my back yard, to meet your demands? Or should I cut down the cottonwood that's over eight stories tall, and put it on the now-clear side of the property? I'd still have to cut down the fence.

That so you can feel better about what and how much electricity gets used? Or the gas my 18-year-old ICE car with less than 100,000 miles does or doesn't use?

There isn't infrastructure for this level of ambition.

I'll stick with the shade.

 

[Axman]

Don't these McMansions have driveways?

No, yards are premium. People park on the street. The new houses use alley access, which just messes things up for the kids that play there.

You know how most streets have fines and stuff if you park on them at the wrong time, or worse even on the days the street sweepers come through? They don't fine here. They practically apologize for road construction.

 

[DWolvin]

Oh, weird! I get not wanting driveways (I guess), but no garages off the back? What city if you don't mind (I'm honestly curious and wanting to look at zoning).

 

[Axman]

Some, but not all of the houses have garages, but more often then not, they're converted, like ours. Mine is now an office plus a shed and pump room for the yard. People turn them into work spaces, man caves, and mothers-in-law apartments/carriage houses/Airbnb units. Off the top of my head I'd say only two out of three houses have garages, and of those, at least half are not set up for parking cars.

The neighborhood was built up around the turn of the 20th century so cars were still novelties. In some cases people's garages are literal carriage houses, but those properties are getting rarer. And when I say it's a wealthy/expensive neighborhood, think most houses around here average about $1 million. I know there's a house around the corner that just sold for $3.8 million.

That's not a flex, I'm just saying that when people have that kind of money tied up in property, they aren't too keen on ripping up turf to install a silly car charger when there are plenty of great ICE vehicles to choose from.

 

[qdemn7]

Some, but not all of the houses have garages, but more often then not, they're converted, like ours. Mine is now an office plus a shed and pump room for the yard. People turn them into work spaces, man caves, and mothers-in-law apartments/carriage houses/Airbnb units. Off the top of my head I'd say only two out of three houses have garages, and of those, at least half are not set up for parking cars.

The neighborhood was built up around the turn of the 20th century so cars were still novelties. In some cases people's garages are literal carriage houses, but those properties are getting rarer. And when I say it's a wealthy/expensive neighborhood, think most houses around here average about $1 million. I know there's a house around the corner that just sold for $3.8 million.

That's not a flex, I'm just saying that when people have that kind of money tied up in property, they aren't too keen on ripping up turf to install a silly car charger when there are plenty of great ICE vehicles to choose from.

I am curious as to the city you live in. Denver? Colorado Spring?

 

[Axman]

I am curious as to the city you live in. Denver? Colorado Spring?

Ah fine, yeah, Denver, about a block from the boathouse in Wash Park.

Don't get me wrong, there are Teslas around here, but there are easily 10 SUVs for every EV or hybrid. Not counting hybrid SUVs, of course.

It's funny, too, because there's a weird kind of pride here for driving around in a 20-year-old shitbox with crank windows. EV tech can improve, but there's a lot of cultural momentum in favor of ICE even if some of the infrastructure hurdles get removed.

 

[DWolvin]

Thanks for the explanation, always interesting when history and human momentum collide.

 

[cdabc123]

Ah fine, yeah, Denver, about a block from the boathouse in Wash Park.

Don't get me wrong, there are Teslas around here, but there are easily 10 SUVs for every EV or hybrid. Not counting hybrid SUVs, of course.

It's funny, too, because there's a weird kind of pride here for driving around in a 20-year-old shitbox with crank windows. EV tech can improve, but there's a lot of cultural momentum in favor of ICE even if some of the infrastructure hurdles get removed.

Because you can find cheap nice used cars in the denver area that arnt rusted to heck. Why not grab a old shitbox then? They drive just as good as a tesla and are way more practical. $2.00 a gallon gas isnt exactly pushing anyone away from them

 

[qdemn7]

Ah fine, yeah, Denver, about a block from the boathouse in Wash Park.

Don't get me wrong, there are Teslas around here, but there are easily 10 SUVs for every EV or hybrid. Not counting hybrid SUVs, of course.

It's funny, too, because there's a weird kind of pride here for driving around in a 20-year-old shitbox with crank windows. EV tech can improve, but there's a lot of cultural momentum in favor of ICE even if some of the infrastructure hurdles get removed.

Thanks. Shows how little I know about CO.

IMO, The infrastructure will have to be built, because some days ICE will be prohibited

We built the IHS, we can built a nationwide EV infrastructure.

 

[Wierdo]

Your divorce from reality is quite astounding... you act like the coal industry, relentlessly regulated into oblivion by the government, is somehow the pet of the government and receiving massive lobby money and a barrage of media misinformation campaigns

Dude, this is a FACT, it was submitte in the bankruptcy filings in COURT. Murray admitted all of it, even listed his funded entities! Read the link for the list and filing documents, it's all available now, another "big tobacco" scandal.

Anyway, I didn't get on to debate backwards ideological dogma and denials, that's not productive, this other "divorce from reality" is more interesting:



FSD Beta is out! This is nuts, the Teslas are now driving people around town on their own! The future is coming, get with the program people.

 

[Ducman69]

Dude, this is a FACT, it was submitte in the bankruptcy filings in COURT.

Take a deep breath, now attempt to objectively review the net taxes or subsidies and government attitude toward coal and alternative energy. On some level you must recognize how downright idiotic it is to pretend that businesses like Tesla aren't the darlings of the government with billions in subsidies not just directly to them but even to their consumers, and that coal has been regulated into oblivion while its competitors like solar and wind were being heavily net subsidized. There are no secret backdoor deals, and they certainly aren't going bankrupt, because their massive government support is boasted proudly and even part of the Democrat party's platform.

 

[Wierdo]

Take a deep breath, now attempt to objectively review the net taxes or subsidies and government attitude toward coal and alternative energy. On some level you must recognize how downright idiotic it is to pretend that businesses like Tesla aren't the darlings of the government with billions in subsidies not just directly to them but even to their consumers, and that coal has been regulated into oblivion while its competitors like solar and wind were being heavily net subsidized. There are no secret backdoor deals, and they certainly aren't going bankrupt, because their massive government support is boasted proudly and even part of the Democrat party's platform.

Absolutely the opposite, coal has been trash subsidized by corruption. And the court filings are just further evidence of that reality, dogma and psychological denial will not change the numbers or legal facts on the ground, as that court case demonstrated.

Further irony is Murray applying for the medical benefits that he fought so hard against, trying to deny his laid off employees from getting, just takes the cake.

The whole world is moving away while we hang on to obsolete technology because of regulatory capture. Not even the democrats are pro-EV, they merely throw citizens a bone when they demand change.

Of course, this pressure is not the case in rural America where people are less educated and more dependent on third world class jobs, a step lower on Maslo's hierarchy of needs, and thus "vote" like peasants serving feudal lords.

But even there this is changing as renewables have become the highest job growth industry in the nation, progress happens, even if it takes a bit later for some to realize it:

“When the end of the world comes, I want to be in Kentucky, because everything there happens 20 years after it happens anywhere else.” — Mark Twain.

 

[cdabc123]

Of course, this demand is not the case in rural America where people are less educated and more dependent on third world class jobs, but even there this is changing as renewables have become the highest job growth industry in the nation.

Thats a ignorant statement. Try to understand a market as diverse as transportation will obviously have differnt needs met more effectively by other sources. Not just "their less educated". To give a example diesel trucks arnt going anywhere in the rural community as there is nothing that can do that job as efficiently. I would also like to point out pollution is more of a localized problem not a global one. A rural community can produce far more pollution per capita without negitivly effecting the environment around them. Many environments absorb co2 pretty effectively (unlike a concrete city) so emissions of most things simply does not matter.

 

[Wierdo]

Thats a ignorant statement. Try to understand a market as diverse as transportation will obviously have differnt needs met more effectively by other sources. Not just "their less educated". To give a example diesel trucks arnt going anywhere in the rural community as there is nothing that can do that job as efficiently. I would also like to point out pollution is more of a localized problem not a global one. A rural community can produce far more pollution per capita without negitivly effecting the environment around them. Many environments absorb co2 pretty effectively (unlike a concrete city) so emissions of most things simply does not matter.

There is truth in what you say there, the needs of less dense populations with longer travel distances does change the product needs equation for some, sure. I'm optimistic about seeing solid EV trucks to address that market in a couple years, that's a missing piece so far.

But it's not just about EVs, I was talking about solar and wind replacing coal, allot of these places could easily become the nation's Saudi Arabia of solar or wind generation down the road, but are currently struggling with resistance from locals who want to preserve their addiction to old dying industries.

https://cdn.ilsr.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/report-ESRS-2020-ilsr.pdf

At least this is not going to be like WV's glass industry where nothing better came to replace it, in the scenario of coal and gas the potential jobs from solar and wind are expected to eclipse those industries, while improving health and environment, so something for everyone, urban and rural, to look forward to.

Going back to EVs, I think by 2022-2025 this may not be an issue even in rural markets: EVs will cost less than ICE manufacture, improve further in range and features, and their advantages will become too hard to resist.

This should push for modernization of infrastructure at the state level to preserve business and industry, so it will sort itself out.

Battery day was basically about making sure we had enough batteries to meet that exploding demand in a few years, I think it will not just be Tesla that accelerates battery production, CATL and LG Chem have their own plans to double and quadruple capacity in a couple years, for example.

 

[cdabc123]

There is truth in what you say there, the needs of less dense populations with longer travel distances does change the product needs equation for some, sure. I'm optimistic about seeing solid EV trucks to address that market in a couple years, that's a missing piece so far.

But it's not just about EVs, I was talking about solar and wind replacing coal, allot of these places could easily become the Saudi Arabia of wind generation down the road, but are currently struggling with resistance from locals who want to preserve their addiction to old dying ones.

At least this is not going to be like WV's glass industry where nothing better came to replace it, in the scenario of coal and gas the potential jobs from solar and wind are expected to eclipse those industries, while improving health and environment, so something for everyone, urban and rural, to look forward to.

Going back to EVs, I think by 2022-2025 this may not be an issue even in rural markets: EVs will cost less than ICE manufacture, improve further in range and features, and their advantages will become too hard to resist.

This should push for modernization of infrastructure at the state level to preserve business and industry, so it will sort itself out.

Battery day was basically about making sure we had enough batteries to meet that exploding demand in a few years, I think it will not just be Tesla that accelerates battery production, CATL and LG Chem have their own plans to double and quadruple capacity in a couple years, for example.

When I mention use case of a diesel truck a good portion of that can never be replaced by electric. Hooking up a trailer abd hauling it any substantial distance requires way more energy then any battery can hold so it's much more feasible to use diesel. The edges of the ice market will remain for a VERY long time.

I'm not much of a fan of wind and solar. Solar installations are extremely overpriced and solar does not generate much power. They do put up wind farms where it is practical in rural American. I dont support government pressure to put up things that dont make since to the local market.

As far as power generation goes I would be happy to continue using gas/coal fired plants as needed up into the next decade abd eventually phase that out for nuclear. Renewable is just not the solution for most grids. I would like to see infustructure for delivering power to be upgraded but you have to understand how monumental of a task that is.

 

[Axman]

I'm optimistic about seeing solid EV trucks to address that market in a couple years, that's a missing piece so far.

Ten bucks says it'll be hybrid diesel trucks that use generators to provide power to electric motors, like in locomotives. There's just so much energy density in diesel fuel.

And that's for big rigs, not smaller work trucks.

 

[cdabc123]

Ten bucks says it'll be hybrid diesel trucks that use generators to provide power to electric motors, like in locomotives. There's just so much energy density in diesel fuel.

And that's for big rigs, not smaller work trucks.

I could see hybrid soulutions being practical for many use cases. There is alot of energy to be regained from a braking truck. I'm honestly abit surprised we haven't seen a product to fill this segment as I would think we currently have all the technology required to create such a system

 

[Wierdo]

Ten bucks says it'll be hybrid diesel trucks that use generators to provide power to electric motors, like in locomotives. There's just so much energy density in diesel fuel.

And that's for big rigs, not smaller work trucks.

Tesla's got their 500 mile EV truck planned to come out sometime around 2022 for $69k from the Texas factory, specs are triple-motor 3500lb carrying capacity and around 14,000 lb/ft of torque iirc.

On the lower end they'll have a 250 mile EV truck for $39k single motor with 7,000lb/ft torque, and 300 mile $49k dual motor with 10,000lb/ft torque.

Edit: I recalled incorrectly, the 14k, 10k and 7k was towing capacity rating in lb. The torque figures were similar (at the wheel) so I mixed the two.

Correction source:

I think Ford and GM are also coming out with some as well, but I don't know if they got the EV experience to match those price points yet. so they'll try to go for luxury lines like the Hummer first, but maybe they'll catch up later when they start taking it more seriously and bring battery related design and manufacturing in-house.

Or maybe they'll use smaller batteries and add a gas generator in the bed like you mentioned, I think Ford said something about a generator for their EV last month if I recall lol.

 

[seanreisk]

None of this is as important as the dress Noah Cyrus wore to the CMT awards.

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1. I don't care about the possibilities between electric, methanol, hydrogen, or something we don't even know about yet: What should happen in a market economy is that the consumer gets a product that is convenient and affordable while shedding most of the undesirable properties of oil and coal.

2. Coal is bad. Sorry, the stuff is nasty, and it is too inefficient to refine, either before or after burning. Major cities in Europe have battled smog and airborne sulfurs going back to the Middle Ages, all caused by the burning of coal. Consider The Great Smog of London, which was as recent as 1952.

"The yellow fog that rubs its back upon the window-panes,
The yellow smoke that rubs its muzzle on the window-panes,
Licked its tongue into the corners of the evening,
Lingered upon the pools that stand in drains,
Let fall upon its back the soot that falls from chimneys,
Slipped by the terrace, made a sudden leap,
And seeing that it was a soft October night,
Curled once about the house, and fell asleep." The Love Song of J. Alfred Prufrock -- T.S. Eliot, c. 1915

3. I like Musk. Most of our American billionaires are made their money in the financial and real estate sector where the money they earn is created by manipulating other people out of their money. Other billionaires have been created by building a business in a market that didn't exist before, like Gates or Larry Ellison. Musk has built three businesses while entering markets that already existed. He's done it by seeing the full scope of his research and manufacturing infrastructure, and he's done it while creating American jobs. The man has an ego, just like all of us. But his is suitably comparable to Steve Jobs or Bill Gates or Jeff Bezos or Ross Perot or Howard Schultz or Donald Trump... You get to have an ego if you're doing it, and he's doing it. You don't take America from last place in commercial satellite launches to first place in commercial satellite launches in six years by being a wallflower. He's designing and building the world's largest heavy lift rocket in a cow pasture, for God's sakes, what's not to like?

Ford, GM, et al can build a car, but they don't give any thought to how the car will be used. When Musk built Tesla he also created the Tesla charging network, the home Powerwall system, developed a network local integrators that can set up your home for electric vehicles, and he folded Solar City into Tesla so people could really take advantage of their Powerwall. That's the big picture thinking that makes these things succeed. In a similar fashion SpaceX literally stole the commercial launch industry, and once he got his rocket reusability and launch facilities sorted out he had the capacity to do his own launches into space. Now SpaceX has branched into manufacturing satellites so he can bring us Starlink. And he's not stopping there.

 

[Nafensoriel]

Ten bucks says it'll be hybrid diesel trucks that use generators to provide power to electric motors, like in locomotives. There's just so much energy density in diesel fuel.

And that's for big rigs, not smaller work trucks.

Weighs to much. Diesel motors are heavy as hell and the mechanics just don't work for trucks in a 2 step system. This is happening though just not with diesel. No ones talking about the motors yet though because its one of those "secret sauce" type deals.

@Wierdo
All electric trucks are going to be fantastic in certain markets. Food service is a good example where you have a short period of intense motion then rest periods. Basically any industry where you have enough downtime to charge the trucks.
In long haul any downtime for charging is going to be very cost prohibitive since margins are already pretty razor thin. In these you will see fueled trucks stay in service for a very long time. Maybe.... MAYBE if charging can happen during forced sleep periods... but I don't realistically see that happen anytime soon due to the size of the batteries needed and the technical complexities of fast charging those monsters. It's a no brainer for electric drivetrains though. Safer, faster, more power, and cheaper to maintain.

I also don't think you are going to see the geometric cost reductions for electric motors. They will get cheaper than ICE in cars simply on not needing a transmission... but they wont get so cheap that they are an instant sell. Especially with current drivers. Going to take time for social acceptance to kick in.

 

[kju1]

If you say so lol. China and Europe are ready, and so is non-rural America, which is >80 percent of the market.

That's a good starting point, the rest can sort itself out by the time the ICE industry's laggards go under - by 2030 probably.

View attachment 286490

Modernization to EV in those markets is already happening dramatically.

It's kinda like cell service, the pockets of no connectivity didn't stop the dramatic shift from land line, the same with EVs.

Most of China is NOT ready. Its the same as here...top tier cities with high population counts are ready....everywhere else in between is getting ignored.