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Tesla Unveils Radical Cybertruck.
- Thread starter Snowdog
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It's all over the place, which is why no such number can really make much sense. I was watching a YT video talking about this guys old 4 Cyl Toyota pickup, that got 22 MPG, when he was pulling a trailer against the prevailing winds he reported getting 4 MPG!
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Mileage numbers arent a public numeric since towing has wayyy tooo many variables. However if quantification is something that is required, https://www.tfltruck.com/2018/06/mpg-challenge-most-efficient-truck-towing-listed-specs/
Again hard to give examples of what the truck will generate since its probably using the development updates from their Tesla Big Rig project. Until the truck launches, folks are concluding based on figures that dont exist or figures obtained from the Model X.
I dont really want to venture into nonexistant figures, and if we extrapolate from the X (not something again I care for), then good luck towing anything for any long distances as refilling that battery is gonna be something else.
Again hard to give examples of what the truck will generate since its probably using the development updates from their Tesla Big Rig project. Until the truck launches, folks are concluding based on figures that dont exist or figures obtained from the Model X.
I dont really want to venture into nonexistant figures, and if we extrapolate from the X (not something again I care for), then good luck towing anything for any long distances as refilling that battery is gonna be something else.
Objective folks of course will hold a pattern. However the buyers of this are going off pure emotion, and well its a damn strong emotion for upwards of 200k orders sight unseen (of course the deposit is next to nothing compared to the model 3...100 vs 1000 USD).
How many people really do much serious towing though?
If your life is living in a massive luxury travel trailer that you haul all over the continent, and you need a dedicated tow vehicle for regular long haul, then Cybertruck is not your best bet, and that is perfectly fine.
If you are just towing your boat to a lake 50 miles away in the spring, or doing the towing that I see most around here, which is just local hauling with a small utility trailer, then you will be fine.
While it's cool that massive towing capability is in the specs, that is probably 1% of the pickup market that are really pulling huge trailers long distance.
Agreed, Cybertruck great as a secondary adventure vehicle, anything serious probably need to look towards the established players in the truck segment and their regular non EV trucks.
Eliminating an extreme use case, doesn't make Cybertruck a secondary vehicle, and it doesn't mean it's out of the running for "anything serious".
If the pickup market was 3 million units last year. Eliminate all those that were used for things that Cybertruck is poorly suited for and you still likely looking at an addressable market of 2 million+ units.
Latest of the bunch of CFD testing I have seen. Looks better than typical pickup, but not massively better, when you consider the impact of mirrors it doesn't have:
https://www.goengineer.com/2019/11/...deal-or-dud/simulation/solidworks-simulation/
https://www.goengineer.com/2019/11/...deal-or-dud/simulation/solidworks-simulation/
90% of half ton truck towing is under 9000lbs. So while 14k lbs makes for great magazine/tablet comparisons, its mostly wasted.
show me a truck that does not require trailer brakes for any load greater than 1500-2000lbs. you won't. DOT and NHSA already require them. however the majority of owners of any vehicle have never bother to read the manual for their vehicle. what is surprising is the number of trailers, expected to be carrying those weights that are not equipped with them.
Concerns over tow range however are valid. ICE vehicles will have no issue finding a place for fuel, and the refuel event itself is normally under 10 minutes of actual time spent dispensing fuel. Assuming an appropriate fast charging is available, i'd suspect an 80% charge on a 150kw pack to take at least 30min. route will still have to be planned around charging infrastructure, even on the top teir model.
show me a truck that does not require trailer brakes for any load greater than 1500-2000lbs. you won't. DOT and NHSA already require them. however the majority of owners of any vehicle have never bother to read the manual for their vehicle. what is surprising is the number of trailers, expected to be carrying those weights that are not equipped with them.
Concerns over tow range however are valid. ICE vehicles will have no issue finding a place for fuel, and the refuel event itself is normally under 10 minutes of actual time spent dispensing fuel. Assuming an appropriate fast charging is available, i'd suspect an 80% charge on a 150kw pack to take at least 30min. route will still have to be planned around charging infrastructure, even on the top teir model.
Tsumi
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$100 refundable deposit is a near zero risk investment, especially if sales proceed anything like the Model 3 sales. It's also a drop in the bucket for someone seriously thinking about buying a $40k+ truck.
Pretty much all of our truck use can be replaced with the Cybertruck. 120 miles to vacation home, where it will tow a boat 1/2 mile to the launch ramp, and have the whole weekend to charge for the return trip. 238 miles to Reno for snow sports. The one that would be the biggest issue is a 300 mile camping trip towing a 5000 lbs boat... 45 minutes at Superchargers each way isn't that big deal in a camping trip that lasts an entire week. There is always a stop for food so at least one charging stop can be eliminated that way.
I probably would not get a Cybertruck though. The minimalist interior and giant touchscreen in the middle are not my cup of tea.
Cheap Uhaul trailers are probably the biggest violators of the brake rule. A lot of wake boats tip the scales over 4500 lbs dry nowadays. Add in a 1500 lbs trailer, 500+ lbs of fuel and gear, and you're well over 6000 lbs. 99% of them cannot use weight distribution hitches because they're equipped with surge brakes. I heard in Australia, anything over 6000 lbs is required to have some form of electric brakes.
Tesla Supercharger V3s have a maximum rate of 250 kw, so 30 min for 80% on 150 kwh sounds about right. I would guess the Cybertruck 500 mile variant has closer to 250 kwh though.
Wierdo
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I've seen ~15mpg trucks go down to 5-7mpg with a heavy load, so a drop of half to two thirds would not be unusual.
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Tesla are not stupid, stupid does not compete with established long lasting companies. Towing will be decent but how they achieve it will be revealed as time goes on.
Towing won't matter to the target audience that actually starts buying them.. This thing is in the same 'class' as a Honda Ridgeline.. If a Honda Ridgeline does what you want, this will to.... Now it is marketed to compete with 1/2 tons. But the 1/2 ton owners/ buyers who might buy this really will have the use case for something like a Tacoma or Ridgeline, or Ranger
More comparable to the F-150, Ram, Silverado...
Sure it's not ideal big long haul towing, like pulling your Massive luxo travel trailer cross continent, but that is probably a in the area of a 1% use case.
For local usage, the cybertruck beats practically all the specs of the Big Three mainstream full size pickups, so can do what they do, so it's really a better match for them, than it is for the midsize like the Ridgeline/Ranger.
That wasn't my point. I understand that it's basically 'rated' at 1/2 ton, but the people buying into them are buying into the cyber/ future not the truck. They won't put 3,500 lbs in the bed or try towing 14,000 lbs and expect anything good to come of that.. People will do some light towing, and some light hauling. But no one is going to load this thing up to the gills with firewood and take it down a logging road, but F150's and other 1/2 tons will always have owners willing to work trucks hard..
If Tesla releases an SUV version it will likely outsell the truck version. They could have released it with specs as modest as the Ridgeline and it probably wouldn't have mattered. Comparing to 1/2 ton and marketing gimmicks ( tow/ payload ) that all truck manufacturing companies do just kind of tries to sell it to the people who are on the other side of the fence. Anyone on the fence or in Tesla's fan club has put in an order for one
Tsumi
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If they get 80% charge times into the 10 minute range, I guarantee you that people will be using these for long distance RV trips with 6000+ lbs travel trailers, well outside the capacity range of any compact truck. In fact, even if charge times are in the 30 minute range, people will do it anyways. Anyone planning to tow over 10,000 lbs should seriously be looking at 5th wheels, which the Cybertruck is not equipped for.
The Cybertruck will not replace the fleet trucks, as it is designed with luxury options from the get-go. However, there is a strong argument for using the Cybertruck exactly for forest use, as long as the distance is within the Cybertruck's range. It has a 6.5 foot bed in a 5.5 foot package. Multiple motors means you don't need to worry about a failure stranding it. Stainless steel body is resistant to scratches unlike paint. Quiet electric motors are less likely to disturb wildlife.
I have no doubt that you will see these used as work trucks. It won't be in large numbers, but there are already plenty of cases where the luxury trim of trucks are used for work. Also, the market greatly disagrees with you on SUVs vs trucks. Pickup trucks vastly outnumber sales of full size SUVs.
The problem would be getting into a supercharger with a trailer or knowing where a 'trailer capable' supercharger is along a route. A lot of charging sites don't have room for a trailer, making it impractical. it's a nice thought, but they need to rework the charging network to make this any different... The people I have talked with who pull campers laugh at the idea of the Cybertruck being used for that.. It has a practical application sure, but towing is just a gimmicky thing to sell it, not what it would be best suited for.. The people buying into these is because of the cyber/ future aspect, having a large trunk is just a side benefit.
The Cyber truck is slightly better than an average 1/2 ton, with a price tag that rivals a 3/4 ton.. It's not going to appeal to a lot of people who actually use a truck as a truck. The majority of them sold will never be worked to 1/2 ton capacity.. Filling the bed with lumber at the home center or a fridge or something is not 1/2 ton capacity.. I did these tasks with a 1992 Suzuki Carry ( JDM mini truck, size of a UTV with a 6'6" bed, 50" wide ), and that was rated to carry just over 1/4 ton at 770 lbs/350kg
On what authority do you presume to speak for all of the 200K+ people who took out a reservation? Most of the F150/Rams 1500/Silverado 1500's (Referred to after as the Big3) sold aren't work trucks either. I live in pickup country. These are the family cars now.
But some percentage of them (Big3 and Cybertruck) will be used as work trucks.
As far as a load of wood on a logging road, why not? For this task, the Cybertruck is MORE capable than the Big3. It has no paint to scratch, a MUCH more dent resistant body, more payload capability and more ground clearance. So hell yeah, it'll haul wood down a logging road.
The big three pickups are sold on the image of toughness ("Like a Rock", "Built Ford Tough", etc...), but the reality is the Cybertruck will be actually tough. Objectively and obviously tougher than the Big3.
The Cybertruck makes all those "Tough Trucks" in ads look like poser trucks, in comparison.
A Tesla Electric Ridgeline equivalent would barely matter. The Cybertruck shakes up the industry, by out-trucking, and out-toughing, the Big3.
Long term this is the Tesla vehicle, that is most devastating shot at Ford/GM/Dodge.
Maybe Im mistaken here, but everyone keeps referring to these statistics:
"1% use case"
"90% of users"
Are these real verifiable statistics/actual data points or just things were guesstimating/generalizing numbers to reach a conclusion AGAIN?
While between now and the launch date, I figure Tesla will figure out the accessibility issue that folks had over the holidays as competing for a charger will sour the experience
The bigger thing as you mentioned is charging rate. regular vehicles maybe 5-10 minutes tops. Planning 30-1hr charges at the current levels is an absolute deal breaker for most. At home charging is great for regular use (no foresight required), but if your towing, where range is cut in half or more additional time is going to be an issue. Factor that in with the charging infrastructure for thousands of cars, and not trucks with trailers its tricky. But as usual Tesla has time on its hands, as the product is way out from customer deliveries.
If they get 80% charge times in 10 minutes, thats literally the tipping point for all vehicles no longer needing a tailpipe. However thats at least a half a decade away at the bare minimum. The other approach to that is bigger denser SS batteries. But again, the way I see market fragmentation:
Economy brands will take the cheaper battery tech with awesome charge times
Luxo brands will take the expensive SS batteries with awesome charge times.
The word "probably" I used each time, is clear indication this is a guesstimate.
But pulling massive trailers across the continent, is almost certainly a LESS than 1% use case.
I have been an EV fan for many years, and this is starting to look like the same phenomena I have seen on the Arstechnica forums. As EVs have gotten progressively better, the attacks have gotten progressively more ridiculous. When they had 80 mile range, people would claim, they had 100 mile commutes, when they had 200 mile range, they had to visit their Aunt every weekend that lived 300 miles away.
There was one guy who started stacking more and more ridiculous conditions, like having to drive a repair part, with no delay to someone in a city 500 miles away.
The "Emergency Trombone Repair Man" is now a meme on the forum.
Now that Tesla is planning a 500 mile range truck, we have 4 solid pages, about towing massive loads, very long distances, like this is suddenly the most important thing people do with Big3 trucks.
It's the same kind of bullshit, focusing on an extreme niche that barely anyone does, like it will disqualify the EV truck from all consideration.
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I am an EV fan as well, but I recognize that the tech has its limitations. Pointing out said limitations are not "Attacks," their simply stating the obvious that subjective folks tend to ignore. The reason I point out said limitations is I want a EV product thats shares certain good experience to a combustion motor.
In this thread, some folks were discussing planning out their recharging cycle on a vacation....for me thats unnecessary now. I need a full tank, i can stop fill up in 5 minutes, on my way. That kind of ease of access is unavailable for an ev owner now.
When you get 4 pages in row fixated on the one narrow niche as the "gotcha". It's an attack. It's "Emegency Trombone Repair Man" syndrome.
So this niche is based on those guessestimates again right?
A litte common sense can separate niche activities from common ones. I see several pickup trucks of this class every day. I go months without seeing one pulling any kind of load. I live in the sticks, and have to drive on the "trans-Canada" highway to get anywhere, so I see a good cross section of every kind of vehicle that is doing long haul travel.
Are you going to claim that some larger portion of F-150 class trucks are engaged in major long distance towing?
I was wrong, the number isn't 90%, it's 95%.
"It's important to note a point Barta's been making for months about the Duramax figures, though. "Even though it’s nice to brag about big numbers, in reality, light duty customers are not towing that large with their trucks," and, "We do know that (95 percent) of our light duty customers don’t tow over 9,000 pounds"
Got any other data for the 1/2t market that says otherwise? Get much bigger than 9000lbs and you are getting into a price tag for the trailer that indicates the owner would have the financial means to buy into the current crop.of 3/4 diesel trucks (which can be bought into below the cost of the 3 motor CT). Those have tice the capacity as the Tesla.
Let's be honest here, at 70k (if that even actual MSRP and not the Tesla cost after "savings") the Tri-Motor is priced above the Denali, High Summit, Limited, Platinum and King Ranch trims with it's main competition. And no one pays MSRP on those either. This thing is competitive at the 40k and 50k marks, but the range at 250/300mi does become a point.
If the Model X is losing 50% range with a 5k load, that means a 150mi range if you need to tow something. Towing a boat, a car or modest camping trailer will hit 5k load. I might not be towing it everyday, but I bought a truck so I could on that couple of times a year I do.
If it can't do the job when I need it it to, no matter how infrequently, it will still play into my purchase decision. Acknowledging the limitations isn't an attack.
How heavy is your trailer?
Last one I pulled was within mid-size truck limits.
However for my use case, I enjoy exploring the desert region east of me. It's over 100 miles each way, going from sea level, over 5k ft then back down to sea level. Current round trip is in the 250-300mi range which includes a little bit of time off the beaten path. I have looked, closest super charger is 60miles away from the general area of our destination. In the next few years we are looking on picking up a small trailer and few dirt bikes to take out with us. Well within the limits of any ICE truck out there with a 6ft bed. But a problematic scenario for the Tesla. For around town light towing, for taking kayaks down to the beach, for a home Depot runs, it's not a problem.
But do not dismiss that many purchases are not 100% based on what someone will do with a vehicle, but also with what they want to think they will do with it.
Probably not an issue if you had the 500 mile range truck. Especially if you get the solar option to add some miles while parked, and heck you could throw a generator in the bed, and be your own charging station if you are staying a while.
Then generator in the bed option makes an EV for occasional off grid camping a lot more feasible than an SUV EV.
500mi range is a 70k buy in. Solar is an unknown additional.
A midsize that meets my needs is 35-40k, A 1/2t is 40-50k. 70k buys a diesel 3/4t that is twice the Tesla.
LOL at having to buy a generator and fuel tank for my EV.
You don't have to buy a generator, it's just another option, for far off grid usage.
Yeah, a Jerry can should you want one is like $15/ 5 gallon.
Or the Supercharger station is blocked/ not accessible if your towing a trailer... It's not fault of the vehicle itself, just the charging network..
I also think it should be noted, that in many shopping centers, you can find plug ins under light poles. If you take the wall charger with you, that at least acts as the safety net. It's what 12A charging?
FearTheCow
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Ah yes, an inefficient generator to recharge your 70k truck just to do what a 25-30k truck could do.... that definitely sounds like the truck of the future to me!
Dollar to dollar, the cyber truck is a horrible proposition, terrible functionality with the bed design, bland interior and exterior styling, and to top it off, a large price premium.
FearTheCow
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Stealing electricity is kind of a crappy safety net for a 70k vehicle.... and there is no guarantee there will be an outlet available to steal from anyways.
It's not actually stealing, as I do think they are put there to run block heaters on vehicles. No other reason for the outlets. I know I have seen RV's plugged in at Walmart and diesel trucks as well... But yeah, it's not ideal, it's just there