Tesla Aims for the Model 3 to Be the First Mass-Market Autonomous Car

Megalith

Megalith

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As Tesla ramps up the proficiency of its Autopilot software and introduces interfaces that allude to a future that requires much less input from the driver, many believe that the Model 3 is set to make history as the first widely available car that can drive itself. While the Model S and X requires an additional $8K payment to get all autonomous driving capability, that premium is much more digestible when the car starts at $35K.

It’s fair to say that most of the ~400,000 people who reserved the Tesla Model 3 did it because it will likely become the first long-range relatively affordable electric car to be mass-produced. But it also became clear that Tesla also aims for the Model 3 to be the first mass-market autonomous car – years ahead of the competition, which is so far an underappreciated feature of the vehicle… and with reasons. It seems like that fact might not have sunk in with every Model 3 reservation holders and that could be because there are still doubts over Tesla’s ability to deliver a fully autonomous system on its new Autopilot hardware suite, which has been standard on the Model S and X since October 2016.
 
Well, people who are terrified of change will always complain the new thing is not perfect, no matter how much of an upgrade it is from the status quo. The pursuit of some impossible, transcendent perfection will always be a smokescreen to justify inaction due to the comfort of stagnation. Somebody is going to have to just push these damned self-driving cars out for the frightened people to shut up and adjust to a new status quo, then they can move on to some newer new thing to be terrified of.

I still don't want to be one of the first owners though...
 
I won't be one of the first ones as I do not live in California. I am 17th for Colorado though! So I'l be one of the first in Colorado with an almost-autonomous vehicles :D
 
Krenum said:
Self Driving cars will never happen in America.
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Too late. The government will be revoking your driving privileges and forcing everyone to ride around in a leaf green Smart Car EV next thursday.
 
Will the tesla3 crowd want to plunk down $11400 for the option though?
 
I hope to be in a Model 3 by late 2018, or sometime 2019 myself. I'll see how they do in the first year, then go from there.

Think of the average American's level of intelligence behind the wheel, and then think further how 50% of the people on the road are dumber/more selfish than *that*. You bet your ass I'd trust AI or autopilot above Joe Blow or Mary Q Bitchface on the road.

It's taken 100 years for the public to master putting gasoline in a tank and taking the car to someone else to do regular maintenance on it. So I don't see "the public" being generally able to understand self driving cars at all for a long long time. The other thing people want to refuse to understand is that when there is an accident, odds are it's going to always be the human drivers fault. Imagine we were 50 years in the future already, the huge bus crash in Texas this week where 13 elderly people died because some piece of shit in a truck was texting and slammed into them... yeah they would still be alive if self drive was a thing.

My car is electric (yay 2017 volt) and the few times people have been curious about it when I try to explain it, they look at me like my car is powered by some magical ghost. I'm just waiting for those "special" people that will seriously believe that AI is some sort of devil and rant and rave how they can't be trusted, even if you ignore the fact human drivers safety records are abysmal.
 
Jim Kim said:
Will it still have autopilot?
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Like lane-assist, adaptive cruise control, smart cruise, and smart braking?

I don't see why not. AI is just a step above a traditional autopilot setup (plane or otherwise).

Most people get confused and assume traditional "autopilot" systems do all the work. But in actuality, they don't (even by definition they don't), they just handle cruising for the most part, even in planes (the newer more sophisticated ones have a few more bells/whistles, but nothing that'll replace a pilot). Autopilot != Pilotless.
 
gxp500 said:
Will the tesla3 crowd want to plunk down $11400 for the option though?
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I kinda doubt it'll have the same pricing structure to activate as the S and X though. It'll be much less expensive. Look at the cost of options on a BMW or Mercedes compared to a Ford or Honda, for instance.
 
collegeboy69us said:
I hope to be in a Model 3 by late 2018, or sometime 2019 myself. I'll see how they do in the first year, then go from there.

Think of the average American's level of intelligence behind the wheel, and then think further how 50% of the people on the road are dumber/more selfish than *that*. You bet your ass I'd trust AI or autopilot above Joe Blow or Mary Q Bitchface on the road.

It's taken 100 years for the public to master putting gasoline in a tank and taking the car to someone else to do regular maintenance on it. So I don't see "the public" being generally able to understand self driving cars at all for a long long time. The other thing people want to refuse to understand is that when there is an accident, odds are it's going to always be the human drivers fault. Imagine we were 50 years in the future already, the huge bus crash in Texas this week where 13 elderly people died because some piece of shit in a truck was texting and slammed into them... yeah they would still be alive if self drive was a thing.

My car is electric (yay 2017 volt) and the few times people have been curious about it when I try to explain it, they look at me like my car is powered by some magical ghost. I'm just waiting for those "special" people that will seriously believe that AI is some sort of devil and rant and rave how they can't be trusted, even if you ignore the fact human drivers safety records are abysmal.
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The Volt is a hybrid, not an electric. The "magical ghost" is GM marketing the included engine as a "range extender" simply because it's not connected to the wheels.
 
Twisted Kidney said:
Well, people who are terrified of change will always complain the new thing is not perfect, no matter how much of an upgrade it is from the status quo. The pursuit of some impossible, transcendent perfection will always be a smokescreen to justify inaction due to the comfort of stagnation. Somebody is going to have to just push these damned self-driving cars out for the frightened people to shut up and adjust to a new status quo, then they can move on to some newer new thing to be terrified of.

I still don't want to be one of the first owners though...
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No, it just has to be better than the current situation. Which autonomous vehicles are not yet. They likely will be given the rate of progress, but they still do worse than the average US driver, and they don't have DUI, falling asleep, etc. to contribute to that number. So it's all bad decisions and shit driving. Telling me they should be marketed and legal for on road use when they haven't mastered weather and shitty roads yet isn't me being a luddite. It's someone else pushing an unfinished project.
 
raz-0 said:
No, it just has to be better than the current situation. Which autonomous vehicles are not yet.
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Depending on which group you listen to, autonomous cars have somewhere from 1%-10% of the accidents per mile driven that cars with drivers do. As it stands right now they appear to be vastly superior to human drivers.

These numbers aren't coming from any unbiased agency, mind you, they all come from the people pushing the autonomous cars. So, you know, always think critically.
 
Armenius said:
The Volt is a hybrid, not an electric. The "magical ghost" is GM marketing the included engine as a "range extender" simply because it's not connected to the wheels.
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Meh, the serial nature of the engine-generator-motor-wheels is close enough for me to call it an electric car (and also a hybrid). It can drive 25 miles on pure electric and you can charge it? Fuzzy line for me.

If you drive it 5 miles to and from work and charge it every night and never use the gas engine it's functionally completely electric.
 
serpretetsky said:
Meh, the serial nature of the engine-generator-motor-wheels is close enough for me to call it an electric car (and also a hybrid). It can drive 25 miles on pure electric and you can charge it? Fuzzy line for me.

If you drive it 5 miles to and from work and charge it every night and never use the gas engine it's functionally completely electric.
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The Volt is a plug-in hybrid.
 
serpretetsky said:
sure. That's not enough for me to not call it an electric car.
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I agree. I was just thinking of the most accurate term that I've heard used. FWIW I own and drive a Volt and refer to it as an electric car. The reality is that most people have no idea it has a gasoline engine or anything else about it because it's never advertised and dealerships aren't trying to sell them.
 
I can't begin to even consider a self-driving car until the manufacturer can answer honestly what will happen in a "choose an injury/death" scenario.

This describes the issues better than I ever could. Without total visibility into the algorithm that will choose life or death for passengers or occupants, you won't find my ass in one of these motherfuckers anytime soon.

http://www.theverge.com/2016/8/9/12412190/moral-machine-trolley-problem-self-driving-car
 
Krenum said:
Self Driving cars will never happen in America.
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Interesting, because having talked to a guy who works at one of the top 2 car manufacturers, he said they will happen in the next 5 years. I think adoption will start off slow, but it's going to happen. It's inevitable.
 
Megalith said:
As Tesla ramps up the proficiency of its Autopilot software and introduces interfaces that allude to a future that requires much less input from the driver, many believe that the Model 3 is set to make history as the first widely available car that can drive itself. While the Model S and X requires an additional $8K payment to get all autonomous driving capability, that premium is much more digestible when the car starts at $35K.

It’s fair to say that most of the ~400,000 people who reserved the Tesla Model 3 did it because it will likely become the first long-range relatively affordable electric car to be mass-produced. But it also became clear that Tesla also aims for the Model 3 to be the first mass-market autonomous car – years ahead of the competition, which is so far an underappreciated feature of the vehicle… and with reasons. It seems like that fact might not have sunk in with every Model 3 reservation holders and that could be because there are still doubts over Tesla’s ability to deliver a fully autonomous system on its new Autopilot hardware suite, which has been standard on the Model S and X since October 2016.
Click to expand...

The model S and model X DO NOT drive themselves.

Your article is incorrect.
 
Flapjack said:
I can't begin to even consider a self-driving car until the manufacturer can answer honestly what will happen in a "choose an injury/death" scenario.

This describes the issues better than I ever could. Without total visibility into the algorithm that will choose life or death for passengers or occupants, you won't find my ass in one of these motherfuckers anytime soon.

http://www.theverge.com/2016/8/9/12412190/moral-machine-trolley-problem-self-driving-car
Click to expand...

Why do people keep bringing this dumb topic up? It can't tell what a person is. How in the hell do you expect it to then make a decision?
 
nilepez said:
Interesting, because having talked to a guy who works at one of the top 2 car manufacturers, he said they will happen in the next 5 years. I think adoption will start off slow, but it's going to happen. It's inevitable.
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Probably in states like California, New York, Massachusetts ect. But never in the rust belt or southern states, we Americans love our big motors, highways & byways.
 
I can't wait for an affordable electric option. There are times when I just need to be somewhere (commuting to work for example) where the car itself doesn't matter so much as just getting there.
This morning I got smoked off the line by a BMW i3 which had already found a tiny park by the time I caught up to it. I need that in my life!
 
Krenum said:
Probably in states like California, New York, Massachusetts ect. But never in the rust belt or southern states, we Americans love our big motors, highways & byways.
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The source is in TX. And I can promise you there are elderly people who can't otherwise drive that would love a self driving car...and yes, they live in the south too.
 
nilepez said:
TAnd I can promise you there are elderly people who can't otherwise drive that would love a self driving car...and yes, they live in the south too.
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Ha, elderly people , especially retired on a fixed income aren't going to be able to afford those! I'll believe it when I see it.

35K +8K for the autonomous capabilities. That's a ton of money for an older person to be spending on a vehicle. And that's not even including the high cost of keeping it in working order.
 
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Krenum said:
Ha, elderly people , especially retired on a fixed income aren't going to be able to afford those! I'll believe it when I see it.

35K +8K for the autonomous capabilities. That's a ton of money for an older person to be spending on a vehicle. And that's not even including the high cost of keeping it in working order.
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I own a Volt and the cost to keep it running is extremely low.
 
nilepez said:
Interesting, because having talked to a guy who works at one of the top 2 car manufacturers, he said they will happen in the next 5 years. I think adoption will start off slow, but it's going to happen. It's inevitable.
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It's just the usual period of denial when something radically new gets off the ground.

  1. That's stupid!
  2. Nah it will never work!
  3. But it doesn't work in these and these and these cases!
  4. Not where I live!
  5. I'll never!
  6. Everyone else has one, but NO I MUST HOLD OUT!
  7. Stupid crap, can't get one without it5%!!5
  8. I'll never admit it to anyone but it's actually useful
  9. I'm loving it!
  10. Everyone forgot how stupid my position was about this so now I can brag about having it.
Even seatbelts caused the same knee-jerk reaction back in the sixties. "Meh I'm a perfect driver I never crash, don't need it. But even if I do I can brace myself with my arms and legs!" Actually you can still hear this from the really stupid ones.
 
Krenum said:
Alright. Would you be willing to pay eight thousand to make it autonomous?
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Yes. I drive about 20k miles per year mainly for work, another few thousand in a separate car. That feature would easily pay for itself. However I think it's foolish for people to pay for full autonomy now when it is several years out. Also a Model 3 base is more than twice what I paid for my Volt. The $8k seems like less of a big deal when it is is a lower percentage of the total vehicle purchase price.
 
LOL@ people in the early 20th century that bought internal combustion engines. The tech is just not ready! There's no way that buying this tech will lead to investments and advancements that will power us for the next 100 years until the next technology, like electric cars, is ready to be the next one to invest in.
 
Krenum said:
Ha, elderly people , especially retired on a fixed income aren't going to be able to afford those! I'll believe it when I see it.
35K +8K for the autonomous capabilities. That's a ton of money for an older person to be spending on a vehicle. And that's not even including the high cost of keeping it in working order.
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2013meanwealthage.png



Median is wealth is roughly 750k

This graph breaks the median down by the bottom 50%, 50%-90% and top 10%
2013meanwealthagepercentile.png


So that's roughly 4-5 million potential customers in the top 10% who can pretty much pay whatever it costs (never mind those that are 35-64 that also fall into the top 10%, likely have millions in assets and aren't on fixed incomes.

And if you want the percent of the population in each group go to here
I'll give you a screen cap of the data if you don't want to click through
Capture.JPG


There's a market. I may not jump on board day one, but after a few years, I'd consider it. It'd be awesome to hop in my car for a 6 hour drive where I can just relax, browse the web, watch a movie or whatever. The fact is we KNOW that companies are planning on replacing truck drivers with autonomous trucks. The future is almost here for better and worse.
 
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