Tablets Expected to Outsell PCs by 2015

[CommanderFrank]

More gloom and doom predictions for the PC industry, this time from IDC, a marketing firm that makes industry trend predictions. Not only are sales from PC drawing down, but the tablet market is becoming saturated, slowing down its growth.

Although the tablet market's growth rate is slowing, PC sales are declining even more.

 

[Budzman]

Shove that tablet up your ass.

 

[Ocean]

its windows 8's fault. no one wants to use the touchscreen menu interface with a mouse and keyboard, yet every commonman's computer comes with it now.

if i buy a "pc" with a touchscreen and a touch screen interface that is portable and contains its own battery power supply, its a tablet.

 

[Insula Gilliganis]

No surprise since Gartner has been saying since 2010 how tablets were going to have huge growth.. "Media tablets are poised for strong growth with worldwide end user sales projected to total 54.8 million units in 2011, up 181 percent from 2010 (see Table 1), and surpass 208 million units in 2014." http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/1452614

Thought IDC was already predicting tablets sales being higher than PCs months ago..

IDC, the technology researcher, is forecasting that a Christmas rush will see 84.1m tablets sold in the fourth quarter of the year, against 83.1m PCs http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...cast-to-overtake-PC-sales-at-end-of-year.html

 

[Killtek]

I'm hoping efforts by Chris Roberts and David Braben will revive the PC industry. If Star Citizen and Elite: Dangerous deliver the goods, we should see a spike in PC sales and upgrades. Also, corporations are racing to upgrade their Windows XP glut to Windows 7, this will require new laptops/PC's.

 

[Exavior]

As much as we here in this forum want to sit and fit about how the PC isn't dead since we each personally build ourselves a new one every year or whatever it doesn't change that for the average person tablets are the way that people are going. For people that only check email and surf the web a tablet is easier to carry and does what they want. For students being required to use google docs they can still do their work.

I don't really doubt this at all.

 

[nightbender]

Maybe they should take into account the PC market has majorly changed in the last 10 years? I work in IT, and even in the corporate realm we've seen a shift to longer times between upgrades. Laptops are now on a 5 years cycle, and desktops are only replaced if they die. Your average Joe home user has no need to upgrade their laptop or desktop till it stops functioning, which is taking longer than it ever has in the past.

The power and robustness of the computers has gotten to the point were there's just no need to be upgrading all the time. Even on the gaming side, the upgrade cycles have slowed down.

Unless they can get the tablet market to go the route of smart phones and keep the masses drooling to upgrade every 2 years, the tablets will hit this plateau as well. Some of the the latest tablets are already pushing PC like performance... only the robustness isn't there yet. Mostly due to the battery, and being prone to human clumsiness.

So I always find these gloom and doom for the PC market tales humorous.

 

[kbrickley]

I think this is more symptomatic of PCs essentially becoming an appliance. We don't generally replace refrigerators and microwaves every couple of years. We buy one and keep it for 5-10 years (or longer). Since most PC users are not power users they can now do the same thing with a PC. Buy a desktop, all in one, or laptop and keep it for years before replacing it. Even more power oriented users like gamers can postpone major upgrades to every 2-3 years (sometimes longer). Enterprise users are also more cost conscious and can maintain their employee computers for 5+ years without replacing them. These things all tend to keep the PC market smaller (although the profits and revenues in the PC market exceed the tablet market by a fairly high margin).

When 4K becomes more mainstream you might see a spike in the PC market as that would necessitate a fairly substantial upgrade for most users. But that tipping point is likely 2-3 years away (maybe longer). The 2560x1440 and 2560x1600 monitors still aren't mainstream and they have been out for years. The PC market will certainly not die as it remains highly profitable for most participants.

 

[Tuthmose]

I don't have the numbers to speak to a global trend, but my anecdotal experience also points to a shift towards "mobile employees", which means companies buying laptops and tablets instead of desktop PCs.

If your grunts have mobile devices, you can more easily shift them around at will within your physical facility, and contact them/assign work in off-hours and off-site conditions. I know at my school, even though we are severely budget limited (our laptops are on TEN YEAR replacement cycles ), we spend the extra money on laptops and tablets when we buy new hardware. We could save a ton if we bought desktops, but then the administration would have a much harder time shuffling us around different classrooms and hitting us up in off-hours for data/parent contacts/blackboard stuff.

Mobile employees yield more utility and versatility for their employers. Perhaps another reason we are seeing these numbers?

 

[kbrickley]

I don't have the numbers to speak to a global trend, but my anecdotal experience also points to a shift towards "mobile employees", which means companies buying laptops and tablets instead of desktop PCs.

If your grunts have mobile devices, you can more easily shift them around at will within your physical facility, and contact them/assign work in off-hours and off-site conditions. I know at my school, even though we are severely budget limited (our laptops are on TEN YEAR replacement cycles ), we spend the extra money on laptops and tablets when we buy new hardware. We could save a ton if we bought desktops, but then the administration would have a much harder time shuffling us around different classrooms and hitting us up in off-hours for data/parent contacts/blackboard stuff.

Mobile employees yield more utility and versatility for their employers. Perhaps another reason we are seeing these numbers?

It is worth noting that the increase in tablets does not include laptops ... laptops are still considered PCs from a tracking point of view ... but Tablets remain inexpensive enough and they are still on a reasonable performance curve that they have not shifted into an appliance category (YET) ... as others have noted, Tablets are far less robust than either laptops or desktops and they wear out and need replacement much faster also

 

[Tuthmose]

It is worth noting that the increase in tablets does not include laptops ... laptops are still considered PCs from a tracking point of view ... but Tablets remain inexpensive enough and they are still on a reasonable performance curve that they have not shifted into an appliance category (YET) ... as others have noted, Tablets are far less robust than either laptops or desktops and they wear out and need replacement much faster also

^ a valid point - I'd love to see a more granular breakdown of the PC numbers: desktops v. laptops. An analysis of workstations versus entertainment pcs versus "Ma-and-Pa-email-checkers" would be even more informative, though I doubt those number are as easily obtainable (or obtainable at all, for that matter). The number of folks who build rather than buy their own entertainment PCs would throw those numbers off too.

In keep with my original supposition, its worth mentioning that in my work environment, at least, folks who used to have laptops (administrators, special ed. supervisors, and the like, particularly) all got tablets in the last upgrade cycle.

(Funny, that - why is it that administrators get new toys every three years while I'm still expected to teach with a 10-year-old laptop and an 8-year-old LCD projector?)

 

[Cheetoz]

At my work, all new employees get laptops only. But they are just used as really expensive vnc client machines.

I have vnc'd using my iPad when I am at meetings, and I am still able to get "real work" done. (Although slower than when I am in front of multiple screens and kb+m)

 

[Ducman69]

Microwave ovens probably outsell ovens too. Doesn't mean ovens are going away and are still likely in every home, just not replaced as often.

I can see selling my tablets for next to nothing every two years, and while I have certainly upgraded computer components over time, I haven't bought a desktop in ages. Still my primary rig that I do 90% of work on.

 

[heatlesssun]

I have vnc'd using my iPad when I am at meetings, and I am still able to get "real work" done. (Although slower than when I am in front of multiple screens and kb+m)

And this is beauty of Windows 8 tablets. Not for everyone but pretty solid for productive use on a tablet.

 

[Megalith]

Haven't even looked at a tablet since I got my Note 3.

 

[antdude]

Boo!

 

[mynamehere]

Call me when I can have a 27"gaming tablet that I can use all my favorite peripherals/sound options on.

 

[kbrickley]

Call me when I can have a 27"gaming tablet that I can use all my favorite peripherals/sound options on.

They aren't mutually exclusive combinations though ... I have a 27" 2560x1440 desktop for gaming, a 17" laptop for work, a 10" tablet for travel and portable computing, and a 3.5" smart phone for mobility ... they all serve a purpose and are useful tools but none of them require that I use them exclusively

 

[Red Falcon]

Shove that tablet up your ass.

QFT

 

[xX_Jack_Carver_Xx]

Yeah, because everyone already HAS a PC. Not because a tablet is better than, or a rather have, than a PC.

Typical marketing propaganda the sales crew spews trying desperately to sell their garbage.

 

[mynamehere]

They aren't mutually exclusive combinations though ... I have a 27" 2560x1440 desktop for gaming, a 17" laptop for work, a 10" tablet for travel and portable computing, and a 3.5" smart phone for mobility ... they all serve a purpose and are useful tools but none of them require that I use them exclusively

I'm getting old and just hate squinting.

 

[BladeVenom]

I'm hoping efforts by Chris Roberts and David Braben will revive the PC industry. If Star Citizen and Elite: Dangerous deliver the goods, we should see a spike in PC sales and upgrades. Also, corporations are racing to upgrade their Windows XP glut to Windows 7, this will require new laptops/PC's.

No matter how well those do, they will still only represent a very small percentage of computers sold.

 

[JayJapanB]

I have a Surface Pro because I can't bring a 30kg monitor and a 20kg pc for times when I go to Japan.
Still need the PC for home though.

 

[raz-0]

Maybe they should take into account the PC market has majorly changed in the last 10 years? I work in IT, and even in the corporate realm we've seen a shift to longer times between upgrades. Laptops are now on a 5 years cycle, and desktops are only replaced if they die. Your average Joe home user has no need to upgrade their laptop or desktop till it stops functioning, which is taking longer than it ever has in the past.

The power and robustness of the computers has gotten to the point were there's just no need to be upgrading all the time. Even on the gaming side, the upgrade cycles have slowed down.

Unless they can get the tablet market to go the route of smart phones and keep the masses drooling to upgrade every 2 years, the tablets will hit this plateau as well. Some of the the latest tablets are already pushing PC like performance... only the robustness isn't there yet. Mostly due to the battery, and being prone to human clumsiness.

So I always find these gloom and doom for the PC market tales humorous.

We've reached peak computing, at least for the person sitting at a desk banging keys. For a lot of people a tablet has enough oomph and it their short comings are about suitability to the needed tasks. For everyone else, there are a ton of laptop and desktop choices. Most of them outpace their needs to an extent that even being bogged down wiht crapware and malware, they don't feel the need to essentially throw out a perfectly good machine every other year. Heck, I like my gaming and other than video card upgrades and adding RAM, my core setup is from 2010 and I'm just now thinking about replacing it as a whole.

Between x86 commoditizing the server market and MS tying meaningful DX feature bumps to long console lifecycles, even the appearance of market growth is dead. The only opportunity for market growth is refining tablets to eat more of the PC sector. My workplace moved from 2 year refresh on "desktop" and three year on server to 3 on everything, to 4 on everything, and I suspect we will move to "until it dies" for desktops and 5 years/until it dies for servers depending on the needs of the service. Throw in virtualization, and overall we will be buying less stuff.

From the perspective of "man, I hope I will still be able to do general computing," I have little doubt that the answer will be "duh of course you will". From the perspective of financial health of the sector, and who will be profitable vs not, I think there's a lot of doom and gloom to go around and justifiably so. You can see some of it in the networking world. If you have a large networked environment, you've been getting underserved and ignored because there isn't much trickle down. The googles and amazons of the world that used to allow the 50k-100k user environments thrive have been rolling their own proprietary stuff for a while. So you are looking at either major ISP grade stuff you can't afford, or you are looking at a small handful of offerings that will linger with questionable support and fixes for problems for 4-5 years.

If you are trying to be in the IT business or invest in it, these kind of gloomy outlooks are more justified.