Stanford Economist: All Fossil-Fuel Vehicles Will Vanish in 8 Years

twonunpackmule

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This guy lives in a city. Not the outskirts. This is a conversation I constantly have to refer people to the idea that this won't translate to a large percentage of Americans.

Do I think it's inevitable? Yes. We will get to a form of this at some point. However, 8 years? Good fuck, no. Not possible. There's no infrastructure remotely even being talked about, and it'll be lucky to even be approved within 8 years, let alone built.

Third, I live in Alaska. No fucking way.
 
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All its going to take is 1 idiot with a punctured lithium battery driving into a water supply and that will get lithium batteries highly regulated fast
 

nutzo

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If the vehicles were comparable in price and cost 1/10th to run that would be great. Reality is even "entry" level electrical vehicles cost substantially more for what you get (Chevy Volt at 33k vs a Ford Focus at 16k).

Even though the cost of gas out here in California is high, the cost of electricity is even worse.
In most cases, it's more cost effective to buy a hybrid (lower cost for the car, and similar price for gas/electricity)
Only way an electric car might make sense for me is if I could charge it for free every day at work. Even with that, the added cost and range limits would still be a negative.
 

lcpiper

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This guy lives in a city. Not the outskirts. This is a conversation I constantly have to refer people to the idea that this won't translate to a large percentage of Americans.

Do I think it's inevitable? Yes. We will get to a form of this at some point. However, 8 years? Good fuck, no. Not possible. There's no infrastructure remotely even being talked about, and it'll be lucky to even be approved within 8 years, let alone built.

Third, I live in Alaska. No fucking way.

I agree, there will be change, but you'll have to come up with a more compelling reason that drives that change than some dire unsubstantiated collapse of an energy system. Baring something catastrophic, change just happens when it happens, at it's own pace. We'll get there when we get there, that part is certain. But inside of 8 years? I would argue that the kind of motivator that would drive an 8 year time cycle of change is the same type of event that can't be accurately predicted. It's like that planet killer asteroid .... by the time we see it and know what it means for us, it won't be a prediction, it's just be an observation.
 
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Funny that you pick smog in a country that did not have a big automobile presence until recently, still has the largest bicycle use of any country and is almost all government controlled. Most public transport is also government controlled/owned, from buses to rail. They are also one of the most densely populated urban areas in the world, and despite all of that, life span has increased, infant mortality rate has dropped and malnutrition has plummeted. The biggest problem for China being particulate matter, that of sulfur. That however as they have advanced and become more open and free as a society, has also improved.

So all in all, their quality of living has gone up many fold, life span is up, consumption is WAY up and the automobile is becoming common place where it was only for the rich before. The problem before was the lack of control or impact of the people, in these government owned or controlled energy sectors. The government time and time again said it was going to do something, or shut down plants etc but never did, putting this well out of the peoples hands, it is not like here in the states where you can choose a power company that uses mostly clean coal or other "green" energy. A good bulk of the cars were also produced by government companies, such as SAIC, Chinas largest automobile company back then and now BAIC.

So it is VERY funny when you talk about lack of regulation when almost ALL of the offenders in China are State owned. Who by the way had refused to update and install any new tech for clean burning of coal, despite the public wishes.

Regulations don't mean shit if they aren't enforced.

You also left out the fact where respiratory and heart disease are sky rocketing there, frankly it's deadly to have asthma there.

Their government is a big kleptocracy there that they are just now starting to address. Regulations don't have teeth when bribery is so rampant. You are correct in assigning blame to the state for creating the problem. I just think you are misguided on heaping any blame on government regulations in general as a cause.

Case in point - leaded gasoline in the 70s
 

Armenius

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The average age of a car on the road in the US is almost 12 years.
Even if they stopped selling all ICE cars and only sold electric starting in 2018, half the cars in 2029 (4 years later than this date) will still be existing ICE cars.



Actually a Hybrid can increase power AND improve fuel economy.
For example:
Toyota Camry LE 4cyl, 178 HP, 24/33 MPG
Toyota Camry LE Hybid, 200 HP, 42/38 MPG
While true, I don't think Ferrari had fuel economy in mind when they made the LaFerrari.
 

Zukker57

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Same people have been saying the same thing for the last 30 years. According to most we should not even be alive right now, as most of the big names in this area are still the same people, saying the exact same thing.



And all that power would have to come from coal/oil/gas.

At least it would be generated at about 30 - 40% efficiency instead of the 15% efficiency in cars. You certainly need a lot more electrical power generating capacity that we have right now to power all those cars. Nuclear energy anyone?
 
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Even though the cost of gas out here in California is high, the cost of electricity is even worse.
In most cases, it's more cost effective to buy a hybrid (lower cost for the car, and similar price for gas/electricity)
Only way an electric car might make sense for me is if I could charge it for free every day at work. Even with that, the added cost and range limits would still be a negative.

How much is electricity there? Even at $0.20 per kw that puts you at around $2.20 to drive 45 miles if I use the miles per kw of a chevy volt.

Even with a 45mpg hybrid I am guessing gas isn't $2.20 per gallon.


In my case, electricity is about 3 cents per kw because I charge at night and have real time electricity rates.
 

lcpiper

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Try having two kids in China?

Actually, even if this did still apply in China today, I don't understand how it applies to the statement you referenced to begin with.

We have laws all acrossed the US that aren't enforced anymore. All the guy was saying is that if a law isn't enforced, then it might as well not exist. But I can't understand how you think what you said relates to his statement?
 

DukenukemX

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8 years.......HAHAHAHAHA, this dude is delusional, who's going to force developing countries to move to the EVs model where infrastructure doesn't support a proper electrical grid to handle the demand for EVs? the guy is going for shock value and not reality....
He might be right about businesses adopting electric vehicles and not people. People hold onto cars for much longer, and if fuel prices drop then they'll hold them even longer. But as a business electric vehicles are attractive. For one, they don't break down as often. Just change tires and brakes and in 10 years replace the battery. Plus they can be easily converted to self driving, which means you can fire a good amount of your work force. The problem is they don't refuel very quickly, unless you find a super charge station or buy more vehicles where you recharge some and use some.

But people are certainly not going to switch to electric unless it's cheap and not stupid looking. Seems like everyone else but Tesla makes ugly electric cars.
 

illram

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This is just guerrilla marketing for a "The Leftovers" meets Disney's Cars spinoff.
 

SomeoneElse

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He might be right about businesses adopting electric vehicles and not people. People hold onto cars for much longer, and if fuel prices drop then they'll hold them even longer. But as a business electric vehicles are attractive. For one, they don't break down as often. Just change tires and brakes and in 10 years replace the battery. Plus they can be easily converted to self driving, which means you can fire a good amount of your work force. The problem is they don't refuel very quickly, unless you find a super charge station or buy more vehicles where you recharge some and use some.

But people are certainly not going to switch to electric unless it's cheap and not stupid looking. Seems like everyone else but Tesla makes ugly electric cars.
Don't get me wrong i fully support going to EV i wish i had the money to reserve and buy a model 3 but the idea that he says 8 years from now a majority of vehicles will be EV.......its laughable. It would be nice to not have to drop $40 in my tank every 2 weeks for 1 car but its not feasible. There is just too much to change to make it possible even in a 1st world country.
 

twonunpackmule

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Well, I'd suggest in future talks to refrain from citing Wikipedia. Instead, cite the course within.

Secondly, it's entirely possible for people to miss things happening outside of their country of origin.


Actually, even if this did still apply in China today, I don't understand how it applies to the statement you referenced to begin with.

We have laws all acrossed the US that aren't enforced anymore. All the guy was saying is that if a law isn't enforced, then it might as well not exist. But I can't understand how you think what you said relates to his statement?

I admit, I forgot my angle.
 

Dekoth-E-

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Let's play a little game of "Spot the clown who has never so much as traveled outside a large city".

Completely off in the weeds predictions like this make people more resistant to change because it becomes more about spiting people like this than the actual change.
 

ZodaEX

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Don't get me wrong i fully support going to EV i wish i had the money to reserve and buy a model 3 but the idea that he says 8 years from now a majority of vehicles will be EV.......its laughable. It would be nice to not have to drop $40 in my tank every 2 weeks for 1 car but its not feasible. There is just too much to change to make it possible even in a 1st world country.

That's the purpose of hardforum news stories. They are always a joke now yet a few folks here haven't caught onto it.
 

lcpiper

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He might be right about businesses adopting electric vehicles and not people. People hold onto cars for much longer, and if fuel prices drop then they'll hold them even longer. But as a business electric vehicles are attractive. For one, they don't break down as often. Just change tires and brakes and in 10 years replace the battery. Plus they can be easily converted to self driving, which means you can fire a good amount of your work force. The problem is they don't refuel very quickly, unless you find a super charge station or buy more vehicles where you recharge some and use some.

But people are certainly not going to switch to electric unless it's cheap and not stupid looking. Seems like everyone else but Tesla makes ugly electric cars.

Shocks, springs, bushings ..... my electric window stopped working, AC needs recharged, there is actually a whole lot more to what breaks on an ICE car then just the drive train. We need to focus less on what's different and try to remember how much will remain in common.

I am having another issue with your post, you can't fire the drivers....... shit will still happen and someone will still have to be with the vehicles when it does. Unless the self-driving EV is going to drive onto my lawn to read my meter, there will still be a meter-man. Even in business, the purpose of transportation remains transporting people. I'm not seeing any fewer people on the bus just because the "driver" isn't actually driving it. Maybe we'll get to the Johnny-Cab stage in some areas, but certainly not universally.

And an issue I have with EVs in general. Parts of the country already have issues with demand for electricity, more demand sometimes lowers prices, but sometimes it raises them. A lesser demand for fossil fuels should lower prices meaning people have good reasons to keep those old ICE engine vehicles when it comes to operating costs.

I don't by the authors predictions of collapse. I see it as possible, but unfounded.
 

Mugato

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Even if the car makers began today to move to massive EV production, it would take longer then TFA states to begin cranking out EVs en-mass. A new car takes years to plan, design, approve, make the tooling for, setup the line, train workers and robots and begin production. Such a process isn't cheap. For all of Tesla's bluster, the number of cars they are producing today is a minuscule fraction of Ford's vehicle production. The number of cars they are likely to be making 5 years from now will still be a fraction of Ford's production.

TFA also ignores the huge ramp up in raw materials and finished products need for the massive number of batteries and motors for EVs.

Plus, while Uber and such may work well in an urban area, they will suck in a rural area. Who wants to wait 40 minutes for a ride to the feed store to pickup 2 tons of feed?

Not to mention Tesla floats along on our dime, while abusing it's workers. I like Musk, he's a cool guy, but the story is not fully told.
 

Spidey329

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Uhhh .. that'd require that most people are in the market for a new car in the next 8 years, and decide to go with an EV. Many buy used vehicles, so there would need to be time for the newer vehicles to be traded in for the used market.

There's too much to be done in that short time span. I'd say it'd be closer to 30 years before the majority of cars on the road are EV.
 

WorldExclusive

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This is how people try to influence others, little by little. This will happen in X amount of years.....hoping people will start to share the same idea.
We know gas engines aren't the future, but the future is about 50 years away. The entire US transportation and energy grid will need to be reconstructed to make it convenient for electric recharging and self-driving.

When electric semi-trucks can transport cargo from New York to LA in self-driving mode with other trucks safely, then we are ready to move over.
 
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lenardo2

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as was said, not happening

what these guys also do not realize has HUGE implications on both local and federal revenue.

GAS TAX...think about how much money RIGHT NOW is generated annually which would be LOST if everyone went electric (or would require an annual federal electric vehicle tax to make up the lost revenue)

143.3 billion gallons of gas in the US was used last year =26.38 billion dollars of revenue to the federal gov. would be lost if no-one used gasoline anymore. there are about 250 million people in the US over the age of 18...

so each and every ADULT(ok person over the age of 18, calling an millennial an adult is pushing it in some cases :evil) in the US would have to pay the FED gov 107 dollars a year in "electric vehicle noone uses gas anymore gas tax"

also electric infrastructure, people taking long trips, currently an all electric car can go what,,,75-250miles ish max? last year my family did a road trip, went from where we live(MA), to MN by car..stopped Cedar point one the way out and hershey park on the way back, did about 4 thousand miles..current max ev charge station is 2hr...range of 250 miles..@65mph every 4hr having to take a 2hr break, so a full day of driving(10hr) will have you go 500 miles max (tesla roadster range supposedly)--nissan leaf on the other hand...2hr break every....1.5hr driving...

there needs to be a lot of breakthroughs before this would become a reality- MAYBE in 50years..or if someone makes a mr fusion generator (like from back to the future)
 

Krazy925

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My 1967 Mustang Fastback laughs at his shitty prediction. Car is 50 years old and will be mine for another 50.

He can fuck right off.
 

WhoBeDaPlaya

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In college about 2005, I remember a college professor telling the class that oil would be "gone" by 2014.

I think the only reason college professors get away with this is they are speaking to a bunch of impressionable young folks.

Academia is full of folks who punish anyone who challenges them or their ideas, no matter how idiotic.
But, but, am a special snowflake...

635873577289442989-257407846_Starbucks-Barista.jpg
 

raz-0

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Lets see. Average age of car on road = 11.x years and growing.

Average income adjusted for inflation = dropping slightly.

Nope, this person is pretty much a fucking idiot.
 

Vaulter98c

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as was said, not happening

what these guys also do not realize has HUGE implications on both local and federal revenue.

GAS TAX...think about how much money RIGHT NOW is generated annually which would be LOST if everyone went electric (or would require an annual federal electric vehicle tax to make up the lost revenue)

143.3 billion gallons of gas in the US was used last year =26.38 billion dollars of revenue to the federal gov. would be lost if no-one used gasoline anymore. there are about 250 million people in the US over the age of 18...

so each and every ADULT(ok person over the age of 18, calling an millennial an adult is pushing it in some cases :evil) in the US would have to pay the FED gov 107 dollars a year in "electric vehicle noone uses gas anymore gas tax"

also electric infrastructure, people taking long trips, currently an all electric car can go what,,,75-250miles ish max? last year my family did a road trip, went from where we live(MA), to MN by car..stopped Cedar point one the way out and hershey park on the way back, did about 4 thousand miles..current max ev charge station is 2hr...range of 250 miles..@65mph every 4hr having to take a 2hr break, so a full day of driving(10hr) will have you go 500 miles max (tesla roadster range supposedly)--nissan leaf on the other hand...2hr break every....1.5hr driving...

there needs to be a lot of breakthroughs before this would become a reality- MAYBE in 50years..or if someone makes a mr fusion generator (like from back to the future)

Some places are already drafting and trying to push blanket "road taxes" based on miles driven, so your fuel source wouldn't matter. SO yea, that's already being addressed
 

hamm3rhead

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Actually, I'd take an electric driveline for one of my wranglers. It's gotta be able to take harsh conditions and have the ability to swap out batteries on the trail. Ideally lighter than a diesel swap. I'd need consistent torque over a long period of time... But this guy's 8 year theory is a crap sandwich.
 

nutzo

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How much is electricity there? Even at $0.20 per kw that puts you at around $2.20 to drive 45 miles if I use the miles per kw of a chevy volt.

Even with a 45mpg hybrid I am guessing gas isn't $2.20 per gallon.

In my case, electricity is about 3 cents per kw because I charge at night and have real time electricity rates.

We have a tiered rate structure.
Baseline is 16 cents, but the kwh amount is so low, anyone who owns a home will go over this amount. It then goes to 25 cents kwh, which is what any addition power to charge a car would cost. If I had a pool, or have a long summer heat wave, it can even go as high as 31 cents a kwh.

Using your example of the chevy volt and my electric rate, it comes out to $2.75 for 45 miles.

Gas is $2.83/gal, so it would cost me $3.18 to drive 45 miles in my Camry Hybrid (at 40 mpg). Slightly more, but it's a larger car than the volt.
If I drove a prius at 50 mpg my cost for gas would be $2.55, 20 cents LESS than a volt.

Of course I could spend a few thousand installing a 2nd meter and charging station in the house to get a lower nighttime rate, but between the added cost of the car and the meter, I'd likely be retired before I could break even.
 

nutzo

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also electric infrastructure, people taking long trips, currently an all electric car can go what,,,75-250miles ish max? last year my family did a road trip, went from where we live(MA), to MN by car..stopped Cedar point one the way out and hershey park on the way back, did about 4 thousand miles..current max ev charge station is 2hr...range of 250 miles..@65mph every 4hr having to take a 2hr break, so a full day of driving(10hr) will have you go 500 miles max (tesla roadster range supposedly)--nissan leaf on the other hand...2hr break every....1.5hr driving...

there needs to be a lot of breakthroughs before this would become a reality- MAYBE in 50years..or if someone makes a mr fusion generator (like from back to the future)

And this is the biggest problem. Even if they increased battery power by 5 times, you still have the problem with charging.
If you had a battery that could take you 800 miles on a charge, you would either have to have a huge cable to carry the charging current, or you would have to be changing it with a very high voltage. Either way it's a problem.

Last year we took a short late summer vacation, about 400 miles round trip. Filled up my gas tank a couple days before the trip, and still had enough left after the trip to go to work for another week. Love having a car with a 650+ mile range.
 

nysmo

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So it is VERY funny when you talk about lack of regulation when almost ALL of the offenders in China are State owned. Who by the way had refused to update and install any new tech for clean burning of coal, despite the public wishes.

I see. So China does not have a pollution problem as a result of poor emission standards for vehicles? Because according to you it's all just fear mongering.
 

tetris42

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But he's an economist, when have they ever been wrong about anything?
 

nightfly

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Predictions are like assholes, everybody has one. We only remember the ones that turn out correct. Look at all the predictions that Jean dixon made that turned out wrong, but the ONE she made about Kennedy is the one that she wants everyone to remember....and her followers did. Same with Nostradamus and all the other prognosticators. Predict a bunch of outlandish things. Get them documented somewhere. Then when ONE turns out to be true, YOU TOO can be clairvoyant!
 
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I see. So China does not have a pollution problem as a result of poor emission standards for vehicles? Because according to you it's all just fear mongering.

They have standards, and lots of regulation, and they are all state owned. The people wanted improvements, but in a country where the government owns all of these means and the people have no ability to "vote with their wallet", you either take it or leave it. As such the government has been slow to adopt any changes or new technology, they have nothing to compete with after all. The assumption is that government is the good guy, and evil corporations are out to kill you and without the government stepping in to regulate everything we will all die. That however is not the case, the government just like in China, acts in its own interests, nothing more. The great success and advancements in the US for cleaning up "dirty" power has by and large come from property rights and the ability to seek damages for life and property.

Fear mongering of world destruction is what these people have done, to say other wise is to deny your own existence, as according to them none of us should be alive that is the point. It also does not have anything to do with China's problems. What China deals with is what is called environmental socialism. As such these people have NO environmental property rights and as such have no recourse to fine or sue the industry (state owned) for the damage. In the states companies take care more care in how things are done because of fines and lawsuits to damages to life and property. If these same rights existed in China, they would not be in the position they are, it has nothing to do with government regulation or control.

Now, if you want to argue even further restrictions or regulation that is up to debate of the individuals of that given region for what is best trades offs for them. As to speak for what is "best" for a whole region has nothing to do with economics, the environment or moral arguments, but rather takes part in statist intellectual vandalism.
 

funkydmunky

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Nothing will prevent the global monopolies with their unlimited resource. Fossil fuel is here to stay.
 
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