Stanford Economist: All Fossil-Fuel Vehicles Will Vanish in 8 Years

Discussion in 'HardForum Tech News' started by Megalith, May 19, 2017.

  1. twonunpackmule

    twonunpackmule [H]ard|Gawd

    Messages:
    1,470
    Joined:
    Sep 27, 2005
    This guy lives in a city. Not the outskirts. This is a conversation I constantly have to refer people to the idea that this won't translate to a large percentage of Americans.

    Do I think it's inevitable? Yes. We will get to a form of this at some point. However, 8 years? Good fuck, no. Not possible. There's no infrastructure remotely even being talked about, and it'll be lucky to even be approved within 8 years, let alone built.

    Third, I live in Alaska. No fucking way.
     
  2. shad0w4life

    shad0w4life Gawd

    Messages:
    690
    Joined:
    Jun 30, 2008
    All its going to take is 1 idiot with a punctured lithium battery driving into a water supply and that will get lithium batteries highly regulated fast
     
  3. nutzo

    nutzo [H]ardness Supreme

    Messages:
    7,380
    Joined:
    Feb 15, 2004
    Even though the cost of gas out here in California is high, the cost of electricity is even worse.
    In most cases, it's more cost effective to buy a hybrid (lower cost for the car, and similar price for gas/electricity)
    Only way an electric car might make sense for me is if I could charge it for free every day at work. Even with that, the added cost and range limits would still be a negative.
     
  4. lcpiper

    lcpiper [H]ardForum Junkie

    Messages:
    10,541
    Joined:
    Jul 16, 2008
    I agree, there will be change, but you'll have to come up with a more compelling reason that drives that change than some dire unsubstantiated collapse of an energy system. Baring something catastrophic, change just happens when it happens, at it's own pace. We'll get there when we get there, that part is certain. But inside of 8 years? I would argue that the kind of motivator that would drive an 8 year time cycle of change is the same type of event that can't be accurately predicted. It's like that planet killer asteroid .... by the time we see it and know what it means for us, it won't be a prediction, it's just be an observation.
     
  5. Chaos Machine

    Chaos Machine Gawd

    Messages:
    566
    Joined:
    Apr 13, 2012
    Regulations don't mean shit if they aren't enforced.

    You also left out the fact where respiratory and heart disease are sky rocketing there, frankly it's deadly to have asthma there.

    Their government is a big kleptocracy there that they are just now starting to address. Regulations don't have teeth when bribery is so rampant. You are correct in assigning blame to the state for creating the problem. I just think you are misguided on heaping any blame on government regulations in general as a cause.

    Case in point - leaded gasoline in the 70s
     
  6. Armenius

    Armenius I Drive Myself to the [H]ospital

    Messages:
    18,617
    Joined:
    Jan 28, 2014
    While true, I don't think Ferrari had fuel economy in mind when they made the LaFerrari.
     
  7. Zukker57

    Zukker57 n00b

    Messages:
    3
    Joined:
    Sep 25, 2016
    At least it would be generated at about 30 - 40% efficiency instead of the 15% efficiency in cars. You certainly need a lot more electrical power generating capacity that we have right now to power all those cars. Nuclear energy anyone?
     
  8. twonunpackmule

    twonunpackmule [H]ard|Gawd

    Messages:
    1,470
    Joined:
    Sep 27, 2005
    Try having two kids in China?
     
  9. Chaos Machine

    Chaos Machine Gawd

    Messages:
    566
    Joined:
    Apr 13, 2012
    How much is electricity there? Even at $0.20 per kw that puts you at around $2.20 to drive 45 miles if I use the miles per kw of a chevy volt.

    Even with a 45mpg hybrid I am guessing gas isn't $2.20 per gallon.


    In my case, electricity is about 3 cents per kw because I charge at night and have real time electricity rates.
     
  10. bezant

    bezant Gawd

    Messages:
    755
    Joined:
    Oct 7, 2009
  11. lcpiper

    lcpiper [H]ardForum Junkie

    Messages:
    10,541
    Joined:
    Jul 16, 2008
    Actually, even if this did still apply in China today, I don't understand how it applies to the statement you referenced to begin with.

    We have laws all acrossed the US that aren't enforced anymore. All the guy was saying is that if a law isn't enforced, then it might as well not exist. But I can't understand how you think what you said relates to his statement?
     
  12. DukenukemX

    DukenukemX [H]ardness Supreme

    Messages:
    4,398
    Joined:
    Jan 30, 2005
    He might be right about businesses adopting electric vehicles and not people. People hold onto cars for much longer, and if fuel prices drop then they'll hold them even longer. But as a business electric vehicles are attractive. For one, they don't break down as often. Just change tires and brakes and in 10 years replace the battery. Plus they can be easily converted to self driving, which means you can fire a good amount of your work force. The problem is they don't refuel very quickly, unless you find a super charge station or buy more vehicles where you recharge some and use some.

    But people are certainly not going to switch to electric unless it's cheap and not stupid looking. Seems like everyone else but Tesla makes ugly electric cars.
     
    Dunnlang likes this.
  13. Dunnlang

    Dunnlang Limp Gawd

    Messages:
    200
    Joined:
    Sep 6, 2012
    Easy and legal these days. Got anything else you care to be misinformed about today?
     
  14. illram

    illram [H]ard|Gawd

    Messages:
    1,451
    Joined:
    Sep 19, 2011
    This is just guerrilla marketing for a "The Leftovers" meets Disney's Cars spinoff.
     
  15. SomeoneElse

    SomeoneElse [H]ard|Gawd

    Messages:
    1,787
    Joined:
    Jan 16, 2007
    Don't get me wrong i fully support going to EV i wish i had the money to reserve and buy a model 3 but the idea that he says 8 years from now a majority of vehicles will be EV.......its laughable. It would be nice to not have to drop $40 in my tank every 2 weeks for 1 car but its not feasible. There is just too much to change to make it possible even in a 1st world country.
     
  16. vegeta535

    vegeta535 2[H]4U

    Messages:
    3,250
    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2013
    He can kept his shit EV car. Need more V8 power.
     
  17. twonunpackmule

    twonunpackmule [H]ard|Gawd

    Messages:
    1,470
    Joined:
    Sep 27, 2005
    Well, I'd suggest in future talks to refrain from citing Wikipedia. Instead, cite the course within.

    Secondly, it's entirely possible for people to miss things happening outside of their country of origin.


    I admit, I forgot my angle.
     
    lcpiper likes this.
  18. Dekoth-E-

    Dekoth-E- [H]ardness Supreme

    Messages:
    7,599
    Joined:
    Mar 23, 2010
    Let's play a little game of "Spot the clown who has never so much as traveled outside a large city".

    Completely off in the weeds predictions like this make people more resistant to change because it becomes more about spiting people like this than the actual change.
     
  19. ZodaEX

    ZodaEX 2[H]4U

    Messages:
    3,724
    Joined:
    Sep 17, 2004
    That's the purpose of hardforum news stories. They are always a joke now yet a few folks here haven't caught onto it.
     
  20. lcpiper

    lcpiper [H]ardForum Junkie

    Messages:
    10,541
    Joined:
    Jul 16, 2008
    Shocks, springs, bushings ..... my electric window stopped working, AC needs recharged, there is actually a whole lot more to what breaks on an ICE car then just the drive train. We need to focus less on what's different and try to remember how much will remain in common.

    I am having another issue with your post, you can't fire the drivers....... shit will still happen and someone will still have to be with the vehicles when it does. Unless the self-driving EV is going to drive onto my lawn to read my meter, there will still be a meter-man. Even in business, the purpose of transportation remains transporting people. I'm not seeing any fewer people on the bus just because the "driver" isn't actually driving it. Maybe we'll get to the Johnny-Cab stage in some areas, but certainly not universally.

    And an issue I have with EVs in general. Parts of the country already have issues with demand for electricity, more demand sometimes lowers prices, but sometimes it raises them. A lesser demand for fossil fuels should lower prices meaning people have good reasons to keep those old ICE engine vehicles when it comes to operating costs.

    I don't by the authors predictions of collapse. I see it as possible, but unfounded.
     
  21. lcpiper

    lcpiper [H]ardForum Junkie

    Messages:
    10,541
    Joined:
    Jul 16, 2008
    I can accept that, done it myself.
     
  22. Mugato

    Mugato Muh Feelz!

    Messages:
    933
    Joined:
    Feb 25, 2014
    Not to mention Tesla floats along on our dime, while abusing it's workers. I like Musk, he's a cool guy, but the story is not fully told.
     
  23. Wolf_Tech

    Wolf_Tech Limp Gawd

    Messages:
    226
    Joined:
    Sep 19, 2010
    Nope My Camaro Stays. I would even brew my own octane just to keep it.
     
  24. lcpiper

    lcpiper [H]ardForum Junkie

    Messages:
    10,541
    Joined:
    Jul 16, 2008
    Yes, I'm fond of my Challenger as well.
     
  25. Spidey329

    Spidey329 [H]ardForum Junkie

    Messages:
    8,676
    Joined:
    Dec 15, 2003
    Uhhh .. that'd require that most people are in the market for a new car in the next 8 years, and decide to go with an EV. Many buy used vehicles, so there would need to be time for the newer vehicles to be traded in for the used market.

    There's too much to be done in that short time span. I'd say it'd be closer to 30 years before the majority of cars on the road are EV.
     
  26. WorldExclusive

    WorldExclusive [H]ardForum Junkie

    Messages:
    10,867
    Joined:
    Apr 26, 2009
    This is how people try to influence others, little by little. This will happen in X amount of years.....hoping people will start to share the same idea.
    We know gas engines aren't the future, but the future is about 50 years away. The entire US transportation and energy grid will need to be reconstructed to make it convenient for electric recharging and self-driving.

    When electric semi-trucks can transport cargo from New York to LA in self-driving mode with other trucks safely, then we are ready to move over.
     
    Last edited: May 19, 2017
  27. lenardo2

    lenardo2 n00b

    Messages:
    37
    Joined:
    Jan 7, 2016
    as was said, not happening

    what these guys also do not realize has HUGE implications on both local and federal revenue.

    GAS TAX...think about how much money RIGHT NOW is generated annually which would be LOST if everyone went electric (or would require an annual federal electric vehicle tax to make up the lost revenue)

    143.3 billion gallons of gas in the US was used last year =26.38 billion dollars of revenue to the federal gov. would be lost if no-one used gasoline anymore. there are about 250 million people in the US over the age of 18...

    so each and every ADULT(ok person over the age of 18, calling an millennial an adult is pushing it in some cases :evil) in the US would have to pay the FED gov 107 dollars a year in "electric vehicle noone uses gas anymore gas tax"

    also electric infrastructure, people taking long trips, currently an all electric car can go what,,,75-250miles ish max? last year my family did a road trip, went from where we live(MA), to MN by car..stopped Cedar point one the way out and hershey park on the way back, did about 4 thousand miles..current max ev charge station is 2hr...range of 250 miles..@65mph every 4hr having to take a 2hr break, so a full day of driving(10hr) will have you go 500 miles max (tesla roadster range supposedly)--nissan leaf on the other hand...2hr break every....1.5hr driving...

    there needs to be a lot of breakthroughs before this would become a reality- MAYBE in 50years..or if someone makes a mr fusion generator (like from back to the future)
     
  28. Krenum

    Krenum [H]ardForum Junkie

    Messages:
    15,559
    Joined:
    Apr 29, 2005
    And just like that *Poof* they're gone!
     
  29. Krazy925

    Krazy925 2[H]4U

    Messages:
    3,334
    Joined:
    Sep 29, 2012
    My 1967 Mustang Fastback laughs at his shitty prediction. Car is 50 years old and will be mine for another 50.

    He can fuck right off.
     
    lcpiper likes this.
  30. WhoBeDaPlaya

    WhoBeDaPlaya 2[H]4U

    Messages:
    2,485
    Joined:
    Dec 16, 2002
    But, but, am a special snowflake...

    [​IMG]
     
    lcpiper and GoldenTiger like this.
  31. raz-0

    raz-0 [H]ardness Supreme

    Messages:
    4,540
    Joined:
    Mar 9, 2003
    Lets see. Average age of car on road = 11.x years and growing.

    Average income adjusted for inflation = dropping slightly.

    Nope, this person is pretty much a fucking idiot.
     
    Ranulfo, lcpiper and WhoBeDaPlaya like this.
  32. Vaulter98c

    Vaulter98c [H]ard|DCer of the Month - October 2009

    Messages:
    5,706
    Joined:
    May 21, 2008
    Some places are already drafting and trying to push blanket "road taxes" based on miles driven, so your fuel source wouldn't matter. SO yea, that's already being addressed
     
  33. hamm3rhead

    hamm3rhead Gawd

    Messages:
    537
    Joined:
    Jul 14, 2004
    Actually, I'd take an electric driveline for one of my wranglers. It's gotta be able to take harsh conditions and have the ability to swap out batteries on the trail. Ideally lighter than a diesel swap. I'd need consistent torque over a long period of time... But this guy's 8 year theory is a crap sandwich.
     
  34. nutzo

    nutzo [H]ardness Supreme

    Messages:
    7,380
    Joined:
    Feb 15, 2004
    We have a tiered rate structure.
    Baseline is 16 cents, but the kwh amount is so low, anyone who owns a home will go over this amount. It then goes to 25 cents kwh, which is what any addition power to charge a car would cost. If I had a pool, or have a long summer heat wave, it can even go as high as 31 cents a kwh.

    Using your example of the chevy volt and my electric rate, it comes out to $2.75 for 45 miles.

    Gas is $2.83/gal, so it would cost me $3.18 to drive 45 miles in my Camry Hybrid (at 40 mpg). Slightly more, but it's a larger car than the volt.
    If I drove a prius at 50 mpg my cost for gas would be $2.55, 20 cents LESS than a volt.

    Of course I could spend a few thousand installing a 2nd meter and charging station in the house to get a lower nighttime rate, but between the added cost of the car and the meter, I'd likely be retired before I could break even.
     
  35. nutzo

    nutzo [H]ardness Supreme

    Messages:
    7,380
    Joined:
    Feb 15, 2004
    And this is the biggest problem. Even if they increased battery power by 5 times, you still have the problem with charging.
    If you had a battery that could take you 800 miles on a charge, you would either have to have a huge cable to carry the charging current, or you would have to be changing it with a very high voltage. Either way it's a problem.

    Last year we took a short late summer vacation, about 400 miles round trip. Filled up my gas tank a couple days before the trip, and still had enough left after the trip to go to work for another week. Love having a car with a 650+ mile range.
     
  36. nysmo

    nysmo Gawd

    Messages:
    945
    Joined:
    Jan 7, 2016
    I see. So China does not have a pollution problem as a result of poor emission standards for vehicles? Because according to you it's all just fear mongering.
     
  37. tetris42

    tetris42 [H]ardness Supreme

    Messages:
    4,518
    Joined:
    Apr 29, 2014
    But he's an economist, when have they ever been wrong about anything?
     
  38. nightfly

    nightfly 2[H]4U

    Messages:
    2,342
    Joined:
    Jun 7, 2011
    Predictions are like assholes, everybody has one. We only remember the ones that turn out correct. Look at all the predictions that Jean dixon made that turned out wrong, but the ONE she made about Kennedy is the one that she wants everyone to remember....and her followers did. Same with Nostradamus and all the other prognosticators. Predict a bunch of outlandish things. Get them documented somewhere. Then when ONE turns out to be true, YOU TOO can be clairvoyant!
     
    lcpiper likes this.
  39. They have standards, and lots of regulation, and they are all state owned. The people wanted improvements, but in a country where the government owns all of these means and the people have no ability to "vote with their wallet", you either take it or leave it. As such the government has been slow to adopt any changes or new technology, they have nothing to compete with after all. The assumption is that government is the good guy, and evil corporations are out to kill you and without the government stepping in to regulate everything we will all die. That however is not the case, the government just like in China, acts in its own interests, nothing more. The great success and advancements in the US for cleaning up "dirty" power has by and large come from property rights and the ability to seek damages for life and property.

    Fear mongering of world destruction is what these people have done, to say other wise is to deny your own existence, as according to them none of us should be alive that is the point. It also does not have anything to do with China's problems. What China deals with is what is called environmental socialism. As such these people have NO environmental property rights and as such have no recourse to fine or sue the industry (state owned) for the damage. In the states companies take care more care in how things are done because of fines and lawsuits to damages to life and property. If these same rights existed in China, they would not be in the position they are, it has nothing to do with government regulation or control.

    Now, if you want to argue even further restrictions or regulation that is up to debate of the individuals of that given region for what is best trades offs for them. As to speak for what is "best" for a whole region has nothing to do with economics, the environment or moral arguments, but rather takes part in statist intellectual vandalism.
     
  40. funkydmunky

    funkydmunky 2[H]4U

    Messages:
    2,388
    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2008
    Nothing will prevent the global monopolies with their unlimited resource. Fossil fuel is here to stay.