Stanford Economist: All Fossil-Fuel Vehicles Will Vanish in 8 Years

Discussion in '[H]ard|OCP Front Page News' started by Megalith, May 19, 2017.

  1. Megalith

    Megalith 24-bit/48kHz Staff Member

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    In a preposterous-sounding forecast, one economist believes that electric vehicles will be take over en masse in as little as eight years, leading to a collapse of oil prices and the petrol industry. Traditional car companies that include Ford and General Motors will supposedly be forced to build EVs in a low-profit market or reinvent themselves as self-driving service companies, as the next-generation of vehicles will be “computers on wheels.” I like the idea of electric cars as much as the next guy, but come on now.

    Seba’s premise is that people will stop driving altogether. They will switch en masse to self-drive electric vehicles (EVs) that are ten times cheaper to run than fossil-based cars, with a near-zero marginal cost of fuel and an expected lifespan of 1 million miles. Only nostalgics will cling to the old habit of car ownership. The rest will adapt to vehicles on demand. It will become harder to find a petrol station, spares, or anybody to fix the 2,000 moving parts that bedevil the internal combustion engine. Dealers will disappear by 2024. Cities will ban human drivers once the data confirms how dangerous they can be behind a wheel.
     
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  2. the-one1

    the-one1 2[H]4U

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    I agree..................................................................................he's an idiot.
     
  3. katanaD

    katanaD Limp Gawd

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    would someone please pass what he's smoking....
     
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  4. GlowingGhoul

    GlowingGhoul Whines about Whiners

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    LOL, there's barely enough capacity available of the overwhelming majority of the electrical grid as it is.

    How are hundreds of millions of more watt-hours of usage going to be accommodated without a complete rebuild of the electrical grid?
     
  5. NeoNemesis

    NeoNemesis [H]ard|Gawd

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    Really depends. If they come out with some sort of revolutionary battery tech that is 4-5 times better than lithium ion then maybe.

    With current tech? Not a hope in hell.
     
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  6. BlueFireIce

    BlueFireIce [H]ardness Supreme

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    Same people have been saying the same thing for the last 30 years. According to most we should not even be alive right now, as most of the big names in this area are still the same people, saying the exact same thing.

    And all that power would have to come from coal/oil/gas.
     
  7. Quartz-1

    Quartz-1 [H]ardness Supreme

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    Let's see an EV handle the wilds of Scotland. Or how about the Rockies? Now, for intra-city travel, he may have a point. But anyone who wants to go outside cities is going to need a real car.
     
  8. gxp500

    gxp500 Limp Gawd

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    Solar dude, solar! Free energy dude!
     
  9. Tsumi

    Tsumi [H]ardForum Junkie

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    Nope, not letting go of my Corvette ever.
     
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  10. Dirty Butler

    Dirty Butler Limp Gawd

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    No way one is replacing my Raptor for playing in the sand
     
  11. SomeoneElse

    SomeoneElse Gawd

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    8 years.......HAHAHAHAHA, this dude is delusional, who's going to force developing countries to move to the EVs model where infrastructure doesn't support a proper electrical grid to handle the demand for EVs? the guy is going for shock value and not reality....
     
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  12. Ducman69

    Ducman69 [H]ardForum Junkie

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    Maybe he works for Huffington Post, the same geniuses that said Hillary had a 98.1% chance of winning the election.

    The other thing to remember about fossil fuels, is that we use them for a hell of a lot more than just small passenger cars. 18 wheelers, tractors, bulldozers, cranes, site generators, planes, trains, tanks, ships, and such use fuel, not to mention that there are so many byproducts that we rely on. In any case, it is hilarious how we went from fake-news fear mongering about "peak oil" to fear mongering that there will be no demand for oil within a decade.
     
  13. kju1

    kju1 [H]ard|Gawd

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    Not even then. Realistically one of two things has to happen for electric to suddenly gain traction to be mainstream:

    1) The cost of fuel rises so high that ICE engines become cost prohibitive to own.
    2) The cost of electric vehicles becomes on par with gas WITHOUT calculating fuel savings. Most people only see the bottom line in the purchase not the long term savings.
     
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  14. BlueFireIce

    BlueFireIce [H]ardness Supreme

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    It actually started back in the 70's with fear mongering that by 1993 all oil would be gone and air quality inside of any city would be so bad you would have to wear a gas mask.

    They have been working on this, they have stated over and over again, that we need to raise the prices on oil, by any means, trying to make EV's and solar more attractive. Because as it stands now, they have been proven wrong over and over again about oil running out and peek costs, they are now pushing for government intervention to regulate it, some countries have already taken to that idea.
     
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  15. Crimson

    Crimson Limp Gawd

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    Speak for yourself you pussy. I bet you like decaf. ;)

     
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  16. kju1

    kju1 [H]ard|Gawd

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    I know and I disagree with the artificial requirement to raise oil prices. I strongly dislike the government meddling in things because invariably they fuck it up. But that aside if oil truly remains cheaper and more efficient to use then we should continue to use it. There are ways to ameliorate the effects of burning fossil fuels and we are alot better about it today than we were in the 70's. Plus as a technology ICE is far more mature than an EV which means we will be far better at improving it and reducing its impact on the environment. I remain unconvinced that the current crop of batteries and solar cells are "better" for the environment than oil. Last year I saw a study claiming the prius for example cost about $3/mile when you figure in all of the impacts building it vs about $2/mile for the hummer. Is it right? I don't know but I suspect there is such a push by enthusiasts and some politicians for votes that they will overlook these details.

    I have long maintained that we need to come up with a viable way to measure the total impact any item has on our planet from cradle to grave. A TCO if you will. Carbon footprint is one way but its not really understood well by the layman and imo doesnt account for everything.
     
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  17. Old_Way

    Old_Way Gawd

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    We might have enough lithium around... maybe. But there's no way we have enough mining and factories going on to produce the number of batteries that would be needed. Tesla's one factory sure isn't going to produce enough batteries for this to happen.
     
  18. Dead Parrot

    Dead Parrot [H]ard|Gawd

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    Even if the car makers began today to move to massive EV production, it would take longer then TFA states to begin cranking out EVs en-mass. A new car takes years to plan, design, approve, make the tooling for, setup the line, train workers and robots and begin production. Such a process isn't cheap. For all of Tesla's bluster, the number of cars they are producing today is a minuscule fraction of Ford's vehicle production. The number of cars they are likely to be making 5 years from now will still be a fraction of Ford's production.

    TFA also ignores the huge ramp up in raw materials and finished products need for the massive number of batteries and motors for EVs.

    Plus, while Uber and such may work well in an urban area, they will suck in a rural area. Who wants to wait 40 minutes for a ride to the feed store to pickup 2 tons of feed?
     
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  19. ruffbytes

    ruffbytes Limp Gawd

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    In college about 2005, I remember a college professor telling the class that oil would be "gone" by 2014.

    I think the only reason college professors get away with this is they are speaking to a bunch of impressionable young folks.

    Academia is full of folks who punish anyone who challenges them or their ideas, no matter how idiotic.
     
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  20. kju1

    kju1 [H]ard|Gawd

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    This reminds me I have to send my college physics professor the articles on FTL and mars colonization. There was quite an argument in the class with her stating no sane scientist would ever state humans should colonize another planet within the next 1,000 years...with me saying it should occur within 100 or less.
     
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  21. Domingo

    Domingo [H]ardForum Junkie

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    Even if crazy advances are made, there's no way people will abandon all of the currently functional vehicles we currently have. Half the country wouldn't do it out of spite.
     
  22. mdburkey

    mdburkey Limp Gawd

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    What about all the people like me, who only replace their cars every 10-15 years?
    I just bought a brand new car last year (replacing my 2001 model with over 200K miles on it) and plan to drive my new one until at least 2030.
     
  23. DrLobotomy

    DrLobotomy [H]ardness Supreme

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    Sounds good to me. Been smelling car exhaust all my life and tired of it.
     
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  24. BlueFireIce

    BlueFireIce [H]ardness Supreme

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    Their predictions were based on current levels on consumption (in the 70s) we have since doubled and in some cases tripled it, yet we have not run out, or killed our selves. As they don't consider advancements or new discovery, along with improvements in clean burning. They also do not consider the positive sides of having abundant cheap energy. People still believe them because it's been so long others forget who and where that prediction was made, even though it has been rehashed time and time again.

    I suggest this book all the time to people when these sort of topics come up: The Moral Case for Fossil Fuels
     
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  25. Armenius

    Armenius [H]ardForum Junkie

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    Supposedly the next ZR1 is a hybrid. But I'm sure they're doing it for power add, not to save the planet.
     
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  26. steakman1971

    steakman1971 [H]ard|Gawd

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    Maybe 80 years? I live in the midwest and saw my very first charge station for an electric vehicle. Of course, no car was using it as everyone is driving fossil fuel vehicles. If they can get us decent range, charging options, and get the prices down, maybe we'd see some adoption of 30-40% in 20 years? (Keep in mind that 94.3% of all statistics on the internet are made up on the spot).
    I don't object to electric vehicles at all. Hell, maybe I will even own one in my lifetime. Who knows?
     
  27. bezant

    bezant Gawd

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  28. rezerekted

    rezerekted 2[H]4U

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  29. ccmfreak2

    ccmfreak2 Limp Gawd

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    There are plenty of cars on the road right now that are 20+ years old. But the petroleum industry is going to collapse in 8 years? I get cities wanting to ban human drivers, but they also like money. So, banning anyone from driving in your city simply won't fly due to massive lost revenue from those who reject these ideas, as well as lower-middle class who haven't been able to get a self-driving car yet. Not to mention the damage this will do for the poor who are now stuck with an old beater that no one is ALLOWED to have and now no way to get to work, throwing them deeper into the poverty hole. I mean, getting self-driving cars NOW is still a very expensive endeavor, and you expect everyone to just be buying them up like they're candy because... self-driving? How much economic damage is that going to do to gas stations across these cities and those who work in them? This is near-economic suicide for a city.

    A car is an expensive asset that depreciates in value. I simply refuse to have $30-50k of my net worth tied up in something that is simply dropping in value when an older $5k car will do the job just fine. My brother-in-law still drives his rusty old 1980s honda civic hatchback he got in high school despite the holes in the floor, and he doesn't seem open to another car any time soon. The point is that self-driving cars aren't and won't be around long enough to be viewed as affordable for MANY people by the time this guy's 8 year prediction hits.

    This guy's "utopia" is absolutely insane due to the economic ramifications to the cities alone. Will it happen? Eventually, sure, but not in the ridiculous time-frame this guy is giving.
     
  30. nysmo

    nysmo Gawd

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    You mean like this? Because this is what happens when you remove any and all pollution related regulations.

    [​IMG]
     
  31. Master_shake_

    Master_shake_ 2[H]4U

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    If by vanish he means still be around and selling, sure.

    With idiocy like this i'd like to see his stock portfolio to see who he is shilling for.
     
  32. mrp

    mrp n00bie

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    If the vehicles were comparable in price and cost 1/10th to run that would be great. Reality is even "entry" level electrical vehicles cost substantially more for what you get (Chevy Volt at 33k vs a Ford Focus at 16k). IMO if you really want to make a change the industry should kick out a Mommy van in the 20k range with a low maintenance cost. While I see electric vehicles becoming more prevalent I don't see this prediction coming true in this time frame. On a side note where will we get our plastic from if the Petroleum industry goes away?
     
  33. bezant

    bezant Gawd

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    Nobo
    OP misquoted the article. It actually says "leading to a collapse of oil prices and the demise of the petroleum industry as we have known it"
     
  34. bezant

    bezant Gawd

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    Anyway, Toni is full of *it. "Seba’s premise is that people will stop driving altogether." Never going to happen!
     
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  35. chili dog

    chili dog Limp Gawd

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    Everybody with an electric car should be forced to take it on a cross-country road trip.
     
  36. BlueFireIce

    BlueFireIce [H]ardness Supreme

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    Funny that you pick smog in a country that did not have a big automobile presence until recently, still has the largest bicycle use of any country and is almost all government controlled. Most public transport is also government controlled/owned, from buses to rail. They are also one of the most densely populated urban areas in the world, and despite all of that, life span has increased, infant mortality rate has dropped and malnutrition has plummeted. The biggest problem for China being particulate matter, that of sulfur. That however as they have advanced and become more open and free as a society, has also improved.

    So all in all, their quality of living has gone up many fold, life span is up, consumption is WAY up and the automobile is becoming common place where it was only for the rich before. The problem before was the lack of control or impact of the people, in these government owned or controlled energy sectors. The government time and time again said it was going to do something, or shut down plants etc but never did, putting this well out of the peoples hands, it is not like here in the states where you can choose a power company that uses mostly clean coal or other "green" energy. A good bulk of the cars were also produced by government companies, such as SAIC, Chinas largest automobile company back then and now BAIC.

    So it is VERY funny when you talk about lack of regulation when almost ALL of the offenders in China are State owned. Who by the way had refused to update and install any new tech for clean burning of coal, despite the public wishes.
     
  37. nutzo

    nutzo [H]ardness Supreme

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    The average age of a car on the road in the US is almost 12 years.
    Even if they stopped selling all ICE cars and only sold electric starting in 2018, half the cars in 2029 (4 years later than this date) will still be existing ICE cars.

    Actually a Hybrid can increase power AND improve fuel economy.
    For example:
    Toyota Camry LE 4cyl, 178 HP, 24/33 MPG
    Toyota Camry LE Hybid, 200 HP, 42/38 MPG
     
  38. deton8

    deton8 Limp Gawd

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    He could have predicted electric cars would outsell fossil-fuel cars in 8 years and he'd still be full of shit.
     
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  39. lcpiper

    lcpiper [H]ardForum Junkie

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    I agree that you agree ...... he's an idiot.

    A moron never learned that it's demand that drives markets, not supply. Supply only determines what things will cost.

    I suppose some people get so wrapped up in one emerging technology that they forget that many others are making shit happen as well.

    https://techcrunch.com/2017/03/05/f...e-car-parts-for-cost-effective-customization/

    While this guy is fixated on the end of cars, I am looking forward to my 3D printed '68 Charger with a few comfort options from this decade.
     
    Last edited: May 19, 2017
  40. Biznatch

    Biznatch [H]ard|Gawd

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    Good, waiting for that gas price drop for my non electric car. Would love a tesla, but it's over twice the cost of my RS...