SSD Shipments to Exceed HDD Shipments by 2021

Discussion in '[H]ard|OCP Front Page News' started by Megalith, Oct 12, 2017.

  1. Megalith

    Megalith 24-bit/48kHz Staff Member

    Messages:
    10,815
    Joined:
    Aug 20, 2006
    Leading statistics company Statista has published their projections for hard disk and solid-state disk shipment numbers worldwide from 2015 to 2021: assuming their analysis is accurate, there will be more SSDs than HDDs shipped by the turn of the decade.

    Estimates suggest that shipments of HDDs will decline, falling to 395 million units shipped in 2017. SSD shipments are expected to increase to 190 million shipped units that same year. Currently, HDDs generally offer greater recording capacity, a better price per unit of storage, and a longer product lifetime, while SSDs are faster, generally more durable, and consume less power.
     
  2. Denpepe

    Denpepe Limp Gawd

    Messages:
    189
    Joined:
    Oct 26, 2015
    And here was I thinking that SSD's had stagnated, I would not mind to go all SSD but need some more affordable 2-3 Tb drives b4 making that leap.
     
  3. Gigus Fire

    Gigus Fire [H]ard|Gawd

    Messages:
    1,896
    Joined:
    Oct 14, 2004
    I like how the article directly below this shows some breakthrough in higher capacity for hdds.

    As long as the cost per gig is still much lower on hdds, they're not going away anytime soon.
     
    GotNoRice, Design1stcode2nd and Maxx like this.
  4. Guarana [BAWLS]

    Guarana [BAWLS] Bad in Bed

    Messages:
    1,284
    Joined:
    Oct 3, 2001
    getting a 3TB drive for ~80ish bucks isn't cheap enough?

    SSDs aren't meant for bulk storage, for the foreseeable future spinning disks will be for bulk, and SSDs will be for quick-access.
     
    Jim Kim likes this.
  5. Charlie_D

    Charlie_D Limp Gawd

    Messages:
    426
    Joined:
    Mar 7, 2007
    SSDs are meant for anything HDDs are used for. They aren't generally used for it because the prices are so stupidly high (e.g., the 2tb SSD I purchased a year and a half ago is more expensive today, than when I bought it).
     
    Denpepe likes this.
  6. Gigus Fire

    Gigus Fire [H]ard|Gawd

    Messages:
    1,896
    Joined:
    Oct 14, 2004
    They're not really meant for slow storage because of the costs. Sure they can be used as a drop in replacement but there is an upper limit to the capacity which hasn't reached hdds yet, and unlike hdds the price/capacity has been stagnating as of late.
     
  7. Charlie_D

    Charlie_D Limp Gawd

    Messages:
    426
    Joined:
    Mar 7, 2007
    I completely agree that they're currently not cost efficient, I just object when people say they're not meant for storage, etc. They're meant for everything a spinning disk can be used for, the prices are just so inflated that they remain out of reach at useful capacities. There's no good reason for the prices to have not only failed to drop over the last two years, but to have actually gone up (yes, I realize RAM has done the same thing, and you can argue capacity issues on the manufacturers end, etc. I freely admit to not knowing a damn thing about that end, other than my suspicion that if desired, the 'supply issues' could be resolved relatively quickly).

    For true bulk storage... again I agree, spinning disks have an advantage in price / capacity. That's why we use spinners in our NAS drives :)
     
    Denpepe likes this.
  8. JosiahBradley

    JosiahBradley [H]ard|Gawd

    Messages:
    1,402
    Joined:
    Mar 19, 2006
    In 2021 a 1TB SSD will still cost 200-300$...
     
    tunatime and jwcalla like this.
  9. M76

    M76 [H]ardness Supreme

    Messages:
    5,271
    Joined:
    Jun 12, 2012
    I thought in data size. Units is irrelevant.
     
  10. nutzo

    nutzo [H]ardness Supreme

    Messages:
    5,993
    Joined:
    Feb 15, 2004
    Spinners also make sense on servers with heavy write traffic since the price difference between a server level SSD that can handle heavy writes and a spinner is much larger.
     
  11. dgingeri

    dgingeri 2[H]4U

    Messages:
    2,136
    Joined:
    Dec 5, 2004
    By 2022, there should be no more consumer devices to use mechanical hard drives, but you know there will be some cheapskates who will still buy them.
     
  12. dgingeri

    dgingeri 2[H]4U

    Messages:
    2,136
    Joined:
    Dec 5, 2004
    They're already that cheap. By 2021, they should closer to $150.
     
  13. Mut1ny

    Mut1ny [H]ard|Gawd

    Messages:
    1,126
    Joined:
    Apr 4, 2013
    I know I'm certainly looking forward to them getting cheaper if for ANYTHING just my games alone...hell not even all my games just SOME of them!

    For music and media I think hard drives are fine. The ones I have now seem to have a delay in waking up sometimes (a setting somewhere?) but once they're going I have no issue breezing through my 4K content, music, pictures, porn, etc.

    Plus, and maybe I'm wrong, but I feel like hard drives are more safe. Sure the reading mechanism might break but the data is still, for the most part, on the DISKS. I feel like if a SSD breaks you're just FUCKED.

    So yeah, I want that 2-3TB SSD for my Steam library...outside that I can wait for larger capacities and cheaper prices and better reliability before plunking my money and data on them.
     
  14. Gigantopithecus

    Gigantopithecus [H]ard|Gawd

    Messages:
    1,119
    Joined:
    Aug 6, 2009
    "Should."

    Just like a 1TB HDD should cost less today than it did five years ago, but it does not.
     
  15. dgingeri

    dgingeri 2[H]4U

    Messages:
    2,136
    Joined:
    Dec 5, 2004
    Low end items always plateau. 1TB hard drives cost a lot less than they did 10 years ago, but 5 years ago, they reached the bottom of production cost effectiveness. So, the price stopped dropping. That happens with everything. There's a certain floor at which it can't drop any further.

    They're $60 these days, in 3.5" or 2.5". I know this because I have an array of 6 1TB WD blue laptop drives in my VM host. (They're cool and quiet, so they're great for VM storage.)

    I also just recently picked up an enterprise grade 4TB HGST 7k6000 drive for only $140 for my main system bulk data drive. Two years ago, that would have cost $250, and five years ago it would have cost over $500. (I know this because I bought them in large quantities for my company's test lab for a new line we were working on in 2012, the DXi4700, which used all 4TB SATA drives, at the time. http://www.quantum.com/products/disk-basedbackup/dxi4700/index.aspx After testing, we opted to use SAS drives with encryption. We spent over $27,000 on drives for the initial line, only to take them out and leave them to sit in boxes in the test lab. I bet they are still there today, sitting around wasting space.) Drive costs are still dropping, just not as fast as before because people aren't filling up drives as they used to, and because the technology isn't advancing as fast as it used to due to reaching quantum limits.
     
  16. [21CW]killerofall

    [21CW]killerofall [H]ard|Gawd

    Messages:
    1,732
    Joined:
    Mar 16, 2006
    I bought a 2TB HDD last month for $50. It was a new Toshiba retail box at Microcenter.