Solar Companies Are Scrambling to Find a Critical Raw Material

Megalith

Megalith

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Solar manufacturers are being battered by higher costs and smaller margins after an unexpected shortage of a critical raw material. Prices of polysilicon, the main component of photovoltaic cells, spiked as much as 35 percent in the past four months after environmental regulators in China shut down several factories.

“There’s just not enough polysilicon in China,” said Carter Driscoll, an analyst who covers solar companies for FBR & Co. “If prices don’t come down, it will crush margins.” The price spike came after an environmental crackdown in China coincided with an annual lull in polysilicon output. Refiners in China typically cut back polysilicon production during the summer, but it was exacerbated this year when several plants were shut down.
 
Master_shake_ said:
Turns out solar power ain't so green.
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Gotta make 'em before we can use 'em.

Of course, metallurgic processes need to be addressed more seriously before it does actually become green. GG China. You just revealed a massive level incompetence and opportunity for outside exploitation. However, I don't expect any newblood engineers outside of China to actually make an effort to complete.
 
Master_shake_ said:
Turns out solar power ain't so green.
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Well it has a one time "dirty cost", one which could possibly be not so dirty based on how it's done... but China being China, better make it cheap than clean. But still compared to something like coal, the "dirty cost" is persistent from getting the fuel source, to making the power, to cleaning up the power plant.
 
sfsuphysics said:
Well it has a one time "dirty cost", one which could possibly be not so dirty based on how it's done... but China being China, better make it cheap than clean. But still compared to something like coal, the "dirty cost" is persistent from getting the fuel source, to making the power, to cleaning up the power plant.
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That's the fun bit. Chinese government has been cracking down on material processing and forges. That's why both wafers and multicrystalline products have gone up as much as 20-35% this year. I'm certainly not complaining. This NEEDED to happen. Now India can enter the market. ;)
 
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There is nothing green about solar nor wind. People are deluding themselves. The environmental cost is enormous. Nuclear is the way to go as long as we find a better way of disposing nuclear waster - preferably taking it to another planet.:)
 
Iching said:
There is nothing green about solar nor wind. People are deluding themselves. The environmental cost is enormous. Nuclear is the way to go as long as we find a better way of disposing nuclear waster - preferably taking it to another planet.:)
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Or use the better reactor technologies.
Whatever happened to Thorium reactors anyways...
 
Iching said:
There is nothing green about solar nor wind. People are deluding themselves. The environmental cost is enormous. Nuclear is the way to go as long as we find a better way of disposing nuclear waster - preferably taking it to another planet.:)
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If you got a better way than strapping all that nuclear material to a rocket to get it off the planet the world is listening. Otherwise you have a not insignificant chance every launch to accidentally detonate the world's largest dirty bomb.
 
Iching said:
There is nothing green about solar nor wind. People are deluding themselves. The environmental cost is enormous. Nuclear is the way to go as long as we find a better way of disposing nuclear waster - preferably taking it to another planet.:)
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That's the exact same argument used against 2 forms of green power, and in favour 1 form of green power. Come on man, we're not ALL sheep enough to laserbeam on a singular idea or opinion like that.

The argument that green power still has manufacturing waste, slag waste from material processing, and maintenance waste is true and yet to be addressed properly. However, this article clearly demonstrates that China is making an effort already, and hopefully we will see other countries follow suit. Even with current drawbacks, green sources are still cleaner than coal and cheaper than natural gas. All issues can be greatly mitigated through iteration. Being a newer implementation, the first dirty run of green power infrastructure will provide a significant leg up in mitigating of pollution during production on the next run.
 
Iching said:
There is nothing green about solar nor wind. People are deluding themselves. The environmental cost is enormous. Nuclear is the way to go as long as we find a better way of disposing nuclear waster - preferably taking it to another planet.:)
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You just contradicted yourself. Until a safer way to dispose nuclear waste is found, nuclear energy has a much larger environmental and financial cost. Just read up on how much has been spent trying to 'dispose' of United States' nuclear wastes. Here's just one: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanford_Site#Cleanup_under_superfund
 
Iching said:
There is nothing green about solar nor wind. People are deluding themselves. The environmental cost is enormous. Nuclear is the way to go as long as we find a better way of disposing nuclear waster - preferably taking it to another planet.:)
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Or we switch to a fuel technology which produces much more short-lived byproducts.
 
Master_shake_ said:
Turns out solar power ain't so green.
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No, turns out demand is outpacing supply.

Solar and wind are growing, nuclear reactor costs keep creeping up into the $10+ billion range. We've added more solar capacity in the past year than nuclear capacity in the past decade.
 
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I think China has reached their "Silent Spring" moment. With the only way for the Imperious Leaders in Beijing to see farther then a few hundred feet is to order the shutdown of hundreds of factories, they started getting serious about cleaning the mess up. Those pretty city views we saw during the Beijing Olympics were not the norm but were due to mandatory shutdowns of nearby factories and power plants. Most likely the era of cheap Chinese crap is winding down. They will start having to deal with many of the same environmental compliance costs that most other developed world factories now deal with. Judging by some of the reports coming out of India, they will have to do the same thing.
 
they say china will be the world leader soon. Looks like we're all at their mercy.
 
What am I missing here? I am pretty sure there's plenty of raw material in the sun. It's HUGE planet, man
 
DeathFromBelow said:
No, turns out demand is outpacing supply.

Solar and wind are growing, nuclear reactor costs keep creeping up into the $10+ billion range. We've added more solar capacity in the past year than nuclear capacity in the past decade.
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That's because Nuclear is constantly hampered by stupid politics and unnecessary fear mongering. When attempts to build new reactors and new technologies are constantly blocked, the tech can't progress and evolve past all the concerns in the first place. It's ashame really. AFAIK, no new Nuclear Power Plants have been ordered in the USA since 1979. The latest Nuclear plant to go online in 2015 was one ordered in 1972 but suspended for decades after construction began. When the project started up again, costs obviously ballooned even further to update everything. What little progress is made in the technology happens in the few 1st world countries that can afford to build them and not stifle their development. If only the current richest country on the planet, USA, had been contributing significantly for the past 40 years...
 
velusip said:
That's the fun bit. Chinese government has been cracking down on material processing and forges. That's why both wafers and multicrystalline products have gone up as much as 20-35% this year. I'm certainly not complaining. This NEEDED to happen. Now India can enter the market. ;)
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Ironically that's how China took a great deal of work from the US, the US has all these silly regulations about being able to dump toxic wastes wherever you want, China... eh as long as you pay the right magistrate and provide plenty of jobs you're good to go!

My theory is that this is really all just a cover up, yeah they had to "clean up" factories, so now things cost more. Sounds like a great way to raise the cost of goods.
 
Well lets be thankful it doesn't use NAND. No one will remember this anyway.
 
Chaos Machine said:
If you got a better way than strapping all that nuclear material to a rocket to get it off the planet the world is listening. Otherwise you have a not insignificant chance every launch to accidentally detonate the world's largest dirty bomb.
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Welcome to the Fukishima (sp) spaceport. Crap, that's actually a good idea. Anybody have a hat? We may have a go at this.
 
Iching said:
There is nothing green about solar nor wind. People are deluding themselves. The environmental cost is enormous. Nuclear is the way to go as long as we find a better way of disposing nuclear waster - preferably taking it to another planet.:)
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We already have a proven technology to process nuclear waste. Hell they made a functional one in the 70s. The only reason we don't use them is cost and social acceptance.

The funny thing is the cost isn't because its expensive.. It's because nuclear waste is so safe to store right now that its not worth the added expense of new reactors.

And yes.. I said nuclear waste is safe. Radioactivity is a boogyman only because idiots don't understand it. 9/10 americans still think holding a lump of uranium magically makes them radioactive. Storage of nuclear byproducts is damned easy with current technology compared to trying to clean up the spew of a coal plant. No your water supply isnt going to become radioactive. No not all waste is "bomb level" radioactivity. Stop being so terrified of an industry that has a death toll so ridiculously tiny that even when you add in hiroshima, nagasaki, and EVERY SINGLE NUCLEAR RELATED DISASTER the total is STILL under 200k in over 80 years of nuclear power. You have a higher chance of dying by racoon than being killed by a damned nuclear power plant.

Never mind the fact that a modern nuclear reactor can be 2 to 4 times less expensive than any other form of power watt for watt and per total cubic meters it produces the least amount of waste of any form of power period.

The sad truth is people are not logical. Nor are governments. They do whatever the mob wants even up to the point of self harm.

/edit
Also just to inject some more realism..
Most waste products(98%ish) is low level. As in it can be stored in a shed for all practical purposes and is by no means going to be "radioactive for thousands of years". Even the waste considered "High Level" is only significantly radioactive for 40 years or so. Yes folks.. Radioactivity goes down over time. After 40 years most waste is around .001% as potent as it was when it was created. Also the containers HLW is stored in are.. well flat out amazing. I've seen them. You can ram one with a bloody freight train and not only will it survive it will still be serviceable with ZERO impact to its safety.
 
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Nafensoriel said:
We already have a proven technology to process nuclear waste. Hell they made a functional one in the 70s. The only reason we don't use them is cost and social acceptance.

The funny thing is the cost isn't because its expensive.. It's because nuclear waste is so safe to store right now that its not worth the added expense of new reactors.

And yes.. I said nuclear waste is safe. Radioactivity is a boogyman only because idiots don't understand it. 9/10 americans still think holding a lump of uranium magically makes them radioactive. Storage of nuclear byproducts is damned easy with current technology compared to trying to clean up the spew of a coal plant. No your water supply isnt going to become radioactive. No not all waste is "bomb level" radioactivity. Stop being so terrified of an industry that has a death toll so ridiculously tiny that even when you add in hiroshima, nagasaki, and EVERY SINGLE NUCLEAR RELATED DISASTER the total is STILL under 200k in over 80 years of nuclear power. You have a higher chance of dying by racoon than being killed by a damned nuclear power plant.

Never mind the fact that a modern nuclear reactor can be 2 to 4 times less expensive than any other form of power watt for watt and per total cubic meters it produces the least amount of waste of any form of power period.

The sad truth is people are not logical. Nor are governments. They do whatever the mob wants even up to the point of self harm.

/edit
Also just to inject some more realism..
Most waste products(98%ish) is low level. As in it can be stored in a shed for all practical purposes and is by no means going to be "radioactive for thousands of years". Even the waste considered "High Level" is only significantly radioactive for 40 years or so. Yes folks.. Radioactivity goes down over time. After 40 years most waste is around .001% as potent as it was when it was created. Also the containers HLW is stored in are.. well flat out amazing. I've seen them. You can ram one with a bloody freight train and not only will it survive it will still be serviceable with ZERO impact to its safety.
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It's very true. Snuffing the growth of the nuclear sector with fear was to ensure American designs and patents are controlled and licensed. Extremely bad planning early on, and overly protective restrictions later (coupled with fear mongering) culminated into rusty material storage lots seeping into ground water -- of which no one is permitted to even move let alone address until a contract runs out or restrictive legislation is lifted. The red tape around nuclear is the biggest problem. Not the material. Tape so thick that a cost effective reactor has not been designed or built in 30 years. A lot of shitty ones, though. I live in the land of CANDU reactors, and my fuck, those are overengineered.
 
I just read an article about one billion android devices not being updated, meaning basically there will be an additional billion in the trash.. no issues there.
Me ALONE: 1 'beeper', 7 phones (that I distinctly remember), 4 computers, 8 printers, in not really 2 decades.
How many solar panels can you make from the energy, water, and contamination all those devices -now trashed, and that did not produce a single watt in their lifetime- required
 
CaptNumbNutz said:
That's because Nuclear is constantly hampered by stupid politics and unnecessary fear mongering. When attempts to build new reactors and new technologies are constantly blocked, the tech can't progress and evolve past all the concerns in the first place. It's ashame really. AFAIK, no new Nuclear Power Plants have been ordered in the USA since 1979.
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Nobody is blocking the tech. US nuclear power output has tripled since Three Mile Island.

The simple reality is that nuclear is not profitable in the private sector anywhere because of the gargantuan capital costs, you're talking about multiple Apollo Moon landings worth of funding to build a single plant. You need a state-run system like France for it to work. For various reasons many modern US administrations have favored an oil-heavy energy portfolio. Obama and Reagan boosted domestic oil and gas production for geopolitical purposes, for example.

The latest Nuclear plant to go online in 2015 was one ordered in 1972 but suspended for decades after construction began. When the project started up again, costs obviously ballooned even further to update everything. What little progress is made in the technology happens in the few 1st world countries that can afford to build them and not stifle their development. If only the current richest country on the planet, USA, had been contributing significantly for the past 40 years...
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Those projects all stalled out despite being fast-tracked by the Bush administration and the states. Georgia even passed a bill in 2009 giving the power company the right to start billing customers to finance the cost of unfinished reactors at Vogtle.

Turns out this new generation of super-safe reactors are really expensive and difficult to build. They can't be mass-produced and exported like turbines or panels, either.
 
Iching said:
Nuclear is the way to go as long as we find a better way of disposing nuclear waster - preferably taking it to another planet.:)
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I think that's one of those "what could possibly go wrong?" situations.
 
DeathFromBelow said:
Nobody is blocking the tech. US nuclear power output has tripled since Three Mile Island.

The simple reality is that nuclear is not profitable in the private sector anywhere because of the gargantuan capital costs, you're talking about multiple Apollo Moon landings worth of funding to build a single plant. You need a state-run system like France for it to work. For various reasons many modern US administrations have favored an oil-heavy energy portfolio. Obama and Reagan boosted domestic oil and gas production for geopolitical purposes, for example.



Those projects all stalled out despite being fast-tracked by the Bush administration and the states. Georgia even passed a bill in 2009 giving the power company the right to start billing customers to finance the cost of unfinished reactors at Vogtle.

Turns out this new generation of super-safe reactors are really expensive and difficult to build. They can't be mass-produced and exported like turbines or panels, either.
Click to expand...

France's nuclear industry is state run? Ha. No wonder the U.S will never do such a thing.

I wouldnt mind nuclear energy but a lot of work needs to be done in public discourse to bring it mainstream again. Dare i say it should be done in a non-partisan matter? Also, if your telling me that the best example of a successful nuclear power industry is actually state-owned and run, I struggle to see how that would work in the U.S where opposition against that kind of spending and control is pretty huge.
 
How polluting/dangerous does a factory have to be before the Chinese regulators close it down? That's a scary thought.
 
Iching said:
There is nothing green about solar nor wind. People are deluding themselves. The environmental cost is enormous. Nuclear is the way to go as long as we find a better way of disposing nuclear waster - preferably taking it to another planet.:)
Click to expand...
Muh nuclear is not a solution. They all leak, as per dilution discharge requirements of the law operators are bound by.
Let alone storing that shit for 300k years.
You can have nuclear, just get a house a few km downwind, or live next to Hanford for 20 years and then see if you change your tune.
 
Nuclear costs for modern reactors is actually less over a 25 year life cycle than oil, gas, or large scale solar. Wind generally wins against it if you have an area with consistent wind currents that do not result in blade damage or transmission damage. Nuclear costs are entirely up front. Uranium is pennys on the dollar for the amount you need to run a plant. American plants are just god awful garbage. CANDU and the later gen3 reactors are all significantly cheaper and more modular to run and build. Most center around smaller 200-300mw systems that can be upscaled on demand for less total square footage than previous models. Do not use USA reactors as a cost comparison. The USA has an ass backwards nuclear power program which has held back nuclear technology for decades outside of military applications. When the US Navy has better reactor designs and considerably better research programs than the civic side you have to stop and scratch your head in wonder of what all that talent could have done for the nations interests at home.

Honestly though yes you cannot mass produce parts for most nuclear reactors due to part complexity, redesigns, and technological advancements. Until MSRs become needed to remove nuclear waste you will most likely not see mass producible extremely cheap reactor designs. MSR are the only system that has the potential to be mass produced since the technology really doesn't need much improvement for what it does.
 
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