steakman1971

2[H]4U
Joined
Nov 22, 2005
Messages
2,433
I've been confused by Nvidia's stock. They announced a bad quarter and bleak forecast - naturally, the stock dropped. However, it's been going up the last week or so. Why? Am I missing something about their stock to make it suddenly start selling product? (Price cuts could help, but your profit is reduced.)
Shrugs.
 

PeaKr

Gawd
Joined
Sep 6, 2004
Messages
894
From a technical standpoint you could've caught the short term bounce at 125 to 160, long term nv could see some pain. 100 could be a soft floor depending on earnings over the next quarter or two but the potential to drop on down into the 70's or lower is very real. nv was definitely in a bubble through 2017-18, up over 175%. Its going to have to retrace. Noobs should have realized it was due to crypto and not AI or gamers. Softbank didn't sell it all in one day, they've probably been dumping over the last month or two as the bubble popped.
 

SSimmons05

Limp Gawd
Joined
Mar 11, 2007
Messages
202
I got lucky and with some screw around money, bout 100 AMD at 2.56 and sold at 12.88.
 

DukenukemX

Supreme [H]ardness
Joined
Jan 30, 2005
Messages
6,231
I disagree, most people won't hack their hardware, hell most do not overclock. Nvidia's primary issue is pushing the price point of their products out of the Main stream market, coupled with a crypto hangover (which comes with ill will from gamers unable to find GPUs).
That's not the point.
1. Why are the mining cards, prevented through drivers, from being passed over to an onboard GPU?
2. Why is SLI disabled through the drivers for the GTX 1060's?

These are concerns I have. Yea most people won't hack their drivers but that's because of the massive hurdle people have to disable Windows driver signature verification. Anyone remember Omega drivers for ATI and Nvidia? I sure do, and I remember when Nvidia sent a cease and desist to Angel Trinidad. I'm sure at some point if this catches on that Nvidia will do the same. But these are things that shouldn't be hidden from us within drivers.

300px-Omega_700px.png
 

jnmunsey

Limp Gawd
Joined
Jan 16, 2006
Messages
336
Not sure if reported here but FYI Softbank bought a ton of collared options to hedge against NVDA crashing. They sold covered calls(they own the stock already) to pay for puts. This protects against losses but limits potential gains. They sold all their shares and the options(or exercised and sold) around an effective price of $235. This actually turned out to be a great move.
 

Minutemaid

n00b
Joined
Nov 5, 2011
Messages
16
seeing that Softbank just reported a 60% increase in their quarterly profits, they probably had a pretty hefty short hedge that they profited on immensely to make up for the loss from their original 4 billion investment.
They had options to sell the stock at ~230 up until early 2019. I dunno exactly how that works... but to me it sounds like they did well in the end buying that protection.
 

tangoseal

[H]F Junkie
Joined
Dec 18, 2010
Messages
9,382
No way! LoL with wod spreading saying they underestimated the reliance on cryptominers for card purchases, I wouldn't put it past any company "Nvidia in this instance" attempt to release a new cryptocurrency via a third party that could only be efficiently mined via their latest generation GPUs.

Now the big question, will their stock hit rock bottom like AMD/ATI and then recover making a bunch of people a lot of money?

This would be a massive ethics violation and could sink a company legally.
 

gigaxtreme1

2[H]4U
Joined
Oct 1, 2002
Messages
3,577
I remember last year Jim Cramer on CNBC had a psychic predict where Nvidia would be this year and the answer was $420 or some such. Big miss.
 

Maddness

[H]ard|Gawd
Joined
Oct 24, 2014
Messages
1,254
I remember last year Jim Cramer on CNBC had a psychic predict where Nvidia would be this year and the answer was $420 or some such. Big miss.

Well it is only the beginning of 2019. God forbid that crypto takes off again. Then anything could happen.
 

filip

2[H]4U
Joined
Aug 15, 2012
Messages
2,574
I would love for crypto to pop again, nothing like seeing someone make the same mistake over and over and over again. It's just to much fun.
 

JSumrall

Limp Gawd
Joined
Jan 19, 2011
Messages
442
When the stock is half what it was seems a bad time to pull out.

Not like I know what I'm talking about with regards to stocks though. lol
 

TorxT3D

Gawd
Joined
Apr 30, 2006
Messages
649
overpriced. and crippled drivers.
im willing to bet 1080ti can do that rtx bs
 

TAP

Limp Gawd
Joined
Mar 29, 2016
Messages
236
overpriced. and crippled drivers.
im willing to bet 1080ti can do that rtx bs

Uhmmm....no. The 1080ti doesn't have tensor cores. I'm willing to bet you dislike Nvidia more than you understand the 2080 architecture.
 

Zarathustra[H]

Extremely [H]
Joined
Oct 29, 2000
Messages
34,244
SoftBank is obviously a more sophisticated investor than I am, but this seems like a bad move to me.

The time to dump Nvidia would have been back when the coming cryptocrash apparent and anaimpact to GPU makers was inevitable, but the share prices hadn't dropped yet.

Dumping Nvidia now is just going to lock in their losses.

Unless they see even more future problems that I don't.
 

Eymar

Limp Gawd
Joined
Sep 15, 2005
Messages
302
^ Read post #46 from jnmunsey. They were doing a collar strat and closed out at around $235 selling price. I'm guessing SoftBank is seeing what most analysts are seeing short term the upside is around $200 for Nvidia while the floor is 75-100, probably better investments to be had for their 3.6B.
 

Zarathustra[H]

Extremely [H]
Joined
Oct 29, 2000
Messages
34,244
That's not the point.
1. Why are the mining cards, prevented through drivers, from being passed over to an onboard GPU?
2. Why is SLI disabled through the drivers for the GTX 1060's?

These are concerns I have. Yea most people won't hack their drivers but that's because of the massive hurdle people have to disable Windows driver signature verification. Anyone remember Omega drivers for ATI and Nvidia? I sure do, and I remember when Nvidia sent a cease and desist to Angel Trinidad. I'm sure at some point if this catches on that Nvidia will do the same. But these are things that shouldn't be hidden from us within drivers.

View attachment 140215


SLI is practically dead. Few titles ever supported it well without a host of problems, and even fewer still do.

In 2019 SLI and Crossfire are both completely and utterly irrelevant. It's single big GPU that rules the roost now, and Nvidia are the only company that has them.
 

Zarathustra[H]

Extremely [H]
Joined
Oct 29, 2000
Messages
34,244
That's not the point.
1. Why are the mining cards, prevented through drivers, from being passed over to an onboard GPU?
2. Why is SLI disabled through the drivers for the GTX 1060's?

These are concerns I have. Yea most people won't hack their drivers but that's because of the massive hurdle people have to disable Windows driver signature verification. Anyone remember Omega drivers for ATI and Nvidia? I sure do, and I remember when Nvidia sent a cease and desist to Angel Trinidad. I'm sure at some point if this catches on that Nvidia will do the same. But these are things that shouldn't be hidden from us within drivers.

View attachment 140215


Also, Nvidia sees themselves as a software company first. The hardware is just what enables them to sell you their software, and they are very keen on exercising absolute market segmentation control via their drivers. No one does anything unless Nvidia wants them to, and if they try, the lawyers will come knocking.
 

Aireoth

Supreme [H]ardness
Joined
Oct 12, 2005
Messages
5,934
That's not the point.
1. Why are the mining cards, prevented through drivers, from being passed over to an onboard GPU?
2. Why is SLI disabled through the drivers for the GTX 1060's?

These are concerns I have. Yea most people won't hack their drivers but that's because of the massive hurdle people have to disable Windows driver signature verification. Anyone remember Omega drivers for ATI and Nvidia? I sure do, and I remember when Nvidia sent a cease and desist to Angel Trinidad. I'm sure at some point if this catches on that Nvidia will do the same. But these are things that shouldn't be hidden from us within drivers.

View attachment 140215

Technically you are right, but that still has little to do with nVidia's stock tanking and institutional investors selling out, which is the point of this thread.
 

Staples

Supreme [H]ardness
Joined
Jul 18, 2001
Messages
7,978
That explains why it has fallen so hard. Bought in a year ago. It went up shortly and then hard down. I sold a few months ago but took some heavy losses.
 

Comixbooks

Fully [H]
Joined
Jun 7, 2008
Messages
18,651
You could buy 2,592,857 Million 2080ti cards with that money to give you some scope at $1,400 a piece.
 

lcpiper

[H]F Junkie
Joined
Jul 16, 2008
Messages
10,611
No way! LoL with wod spreading saying they underestimated the reliance on cryptominers for card purchases, I wouldn't put it past any company "Nvidia in this instance" attempt to release a new cryptocurrency via a third party that could only be efficiently mined via their latest generation GPUs.

Now the big question, will their stock hit rock bottom like AMD/ATI and then recover making a bunch of people a lot of money?


They've done it before. I watched them drop from $20 to under $4 in 2007 I believe. They recovered a few months later, and remained pretty flat in the $20 to $30 dollar range until about three years ago when they surged up into crazy land to almost $300 a share. Now they are temporarily holding at about $130 or so and we'll see what happens. I think it largely depends on whether or not NVidia was able to gain profitable entry into additional market segments and of course how long they can keep their prices up before someone cuts their legs out from under them.
 

lcpiper

[H]F Junkie
Joined
Jul 16, 2008
Messages
10,611
The issue is far beyond Nvidia's overpriced RTX cards. Even the GTX 1060 can be found for like $100 and even the mining cards can be bought for less if you hack the drivers. Linus even found a way to hack the drivers to run two GTX 1060's with SLI. So not only are the Rx 480's 470's cheap, but you can even get Nvidia's GTX 1060's cheap and SLI them. So Nvidia is overpriced and withholding features from within the drivers.




Withholding features in drivers is nothing new. The price for RTX cards will remain high as long as they are selling at that price. Something is worth what people will pay, it's no more complicated then that.

I want a Toyota TRD Pro but not for $50K, and certainly not used with 15,000 miles at $46K+, but others are paying so that's where the prices are running.
 

TheCommander

2[H]4U
Joined
Apr 2, 2003
Messages
2,999
dude Nvidia have been sub 40$ for all it's life up to 2016, then crypto hit, AMD gave up high end, then stock rockets to 230$, wtf ?
crypto is dead, AMD getting back with navi this year, Intel is throwing it's gloves in the ring, the stock will fall and adjust around 50$ by the same time next year i have no doubt about that.



I love how you make 400million $ sounds like nothing...they only lost 0.4 and bailed

I dont think they will go down that low. They have expanded to other things such as AI and machine learning. Not saying that is a game changer but they are a decently run company and will rebound.
 

Minutemaid

n00b
Joined
Nov 5, 2011
Messages
16
SoftBank is obviously a more sophisticated investor than I am, but this seems like a bad move to me.

The time to dump Nvidia would have been back when the coming cryptocrash apparent and anaimpact to GPU makers was inevitable, but the share prices hadn't dropped yet.

Dumping Nvidia now is just going to lock in their losses.

Unless they see even more future problems that I don't.

Some crucial information which explains why SoftBank sold was missed in this article. This post was borderline fake news without these details.

Softbank had options to sell their shares at about ~235 each due to some protection they purchased. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...aid-to-plan-sale-of-stake-in-nvidia-next-year
I think anyone woulda sold with this in place and with where the stock's been bobbing around the past couple months. Nvidia ain't hitting ~235 anytime soon unless they surprise everyone with some astounding new tech and opportunity for more profits.

copy/paste from the link above:
"SoftBank’s opportunity to sell its Nvidia stake is structured via a series of tranches that begin to expire early next year, said the people. The average price for the options is between $230 and $240 a share, one of the people said. SoftBank may decide against exercising its option to sell its stake if Nvidia’s share price rallies, the people said."
 

IndyColtsFan

Limp Gawd
Joined
Jul 4, 2017
Messages
489
wow crypto took all theses investment houses for a ride how did any of them think numbers like that were going to last? its not really NV's fault here any one with a brain knew the crypto markert was fucking with sales numbers

Maybe my memory is wrong and I dreamed this up, but I could swear Jensen said during the crypto boom that a) Crypto sales were a small percentage of their sales and b) nVidia didn't intend to ramp up production to meet the demand because of the fear of a crypto downturn. He was full of crap on a) and I believe nVidia did ramp up production more than they let on. I believe nVidia did mislead folks on how much of their sales were to cryptominers, though I do agree with you that anyone with a brain should've seen this coming and not only that, the used GPU market would be massive and hurt sales of new cards.
 
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DukenukemX

Supreme [H]ardness
Joined
Jan 30, 2005
Messages
6,231
Technically you are right, but that still has little to do with nVidia's stock tanking and institutional investors selling out, which is the point of this thread.
As more people find out more of Nvidia's fuckery the sales will slow down. The RTX pricing fiasco is just the latest Nvidia fuckery. The driver fuckery has been around for a while. The moment AMD or Intel makes a competing product, people will switch and investors know this. Nvidia is becoming the EA of the hardware industry.
 
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