So is all this madness still in full swing?

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philb2

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There was a thread today about Best Buy stocking some FE cards. Someone mentioned "syndicates paying people" to wait in line. I had thought that with the shutdowns in China, etc., that the demand for new cards for mining was going down. No?

Also, aren't these cards hash rate limited?
 
I'm super behind on the insider info but.... secondary market prices dipped and went back up slightly. LHR cards have been partially un-LHR'd by way of mining software update. There's other news about manufacturing fab costs going up and I swear I saw something about memory prices coming down in the next few months. ETH mining is still a thing and the EIP1559 difficulty bomb did it's thing but the price of ETH has gone up. The 2.0 merge which would kill eth mining could happen by end of year but let's be real -- most likely not. Basically you can trust no one. Buy what you need when you need it.
 
There was some temporary relief and it seemed like stock got slightly better. But from what I’ve seen prices are going back up and cards are again harder to find.
 
It's going to be a mess for a long long time. Still though with just a little effort and luck you can get what you want at a decent price. I have purchased a 3090, 3080 ti, 3070, and a 3060 all at MSRP.
 
Chip shortages are a direct consequence of increased demand, not manufacturing issues. You are mixing a symptom and a potential explanation.
 
Covid threw EVERYONE for a loop. It has disrupted all supply chains. This has an effect on demand as well.
 
Chip shortages are a direct consequence of increased demand, not manufacturing issues. You are mixing a symptom and a potential explanation.

While true that the production and sales in 2020 and Q1 2021 were not lower than 2019 and Q1 2020:


yPqhdNKxmb3EHjwSLDhRVg-970-80.png


Q2 2019 to Q1 2020
NVidia: 5.03 + 7.66 + 8.10 + 6.57 = 27.36 millions Nvidia unit, 4 quarter pre-covid
AMD...: 2.37 + 2.84 + 3.66 + 2.93 = 11.80 millions AMD unit, 4 quarter pre-covid


Q2 2020 to Q1 2021
NVidia: 7.41 + 8.86 + 9.02 + 9.42 = 34.71 millions Nvidia unit, first 4 covid quarter
AMD...: 2.09 + 2.65 + 1.98 + 2.35 = 9.07 millions AMD unit, 4 quarter pre-covid


Combined

nAkTK6bTMg4RP9mLnrjDCG-970-80.png


The shortage is certainly not due to a decline in production from 2019, but considering the high demand maybe manufacturing issue explain with production did not ramp up back to the previous minig craze of mid 2017 to mid 2018 or that is due to the fact that consoles and CPU got in giant demand at the same time, that would probably explain with AMD output decrease instead of increasing, CPU having better margin for them and consoles APU having pre-agreed I would imagine volume deal with the giant clients there.

I am not sure how one distinguish manufacturing issue with the explosion of demand for the same process-chips to explain the lack of ramping up like it was possible for them to do in the recent past, but I imagine very knowledge people could.
 
I've been reading a lot of the posts in this forum, and I have to say that there are some very smart and knowledgeable people here. Barring some unexpected event, I'm going to have to wait until the 4000 cards come out, because I don't see any end to the madness any time sooner.
 
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The miners are not the problem, the chip shortage is the problem. This is proving it, imo.

I'm not an economics expert but I kinda think they are. The very post above yours is a guy that has bought 4 GPU's. Miners buying cards in bushels all across the globe and in some cases by the pallet just to mine is a big reason demand is so high. They may not be the only reason and I know Covid and scalpers hold blame too but they are a big reason just like they were years ago when they wiped out stocks world wide.
 
I'm not an economics expert but I kinda think they are. The very post above yours is a guy that has bought 4 GPU's. Miners buying cards in bushels all across the globe and in some cases by the pallet just to mine is a big reason demand is so high. They may not be the only reason and I know Covid and scalpers hold blame too but they are a big reason just like they were years ago when they wiped out stocks world wide.
Scalpers aren't a cause of the craziness. They are bottom feeding pond scum who live where the sun don't shine. They are a consequence of the shortages.
 
The miners are not the problem, the chip shortage is the problem. This is proving it, imo.
So how do you explain NVIDIA? NVIDIA are the only ones using Samsung's 8nm node. The one their chips are being manufactured on was specifically speced out for NVIDIA, as far as I know.
 
I've been reading a lot of the posts in this forum, and I have to say that there are some very smart and knowledgeable people here. Barring some unexpected event, I'm going to have to wait until the 4000 cards come out, because I don't see any end to the madness any time sooner.
Did you get in the evga queue? Finally got my 3080 a week ago. It's not the one I want (I want the hybrid version) but it's good enough for now.
 
EVGA 3080ti queue just hit around the first hour of sign ups lol. I know because I signed up within the first hour and just got my notification today.

Since 3k series launch, have personally bought 3090XC3, 3090FTW3, 3070ti FTW3 in store, 3090FTW3, 3080ti FTW3 in evga queue.
 
EVGA 3080ti queue just hit around the first hour of sign ups lol. I know because I signed up within the first hour and just got my notification today.

Since 3k series launch, have personally bought 3090XC3, 3090FTW3, 3070ti FTW3 in store, 3090FTW3, 3080ti FTW3 in evga queue.
Nice. I got an evga FTW3 ultra hybrid 3080 on launch day for less than msrp (5% off associate code... $800 + tax shipped)... A few months later I got one for the xc3 hybrid but I passed since I didn't need it. That too was at sub msrp even. I kinda wish I had grabbed it but oh well. Didn't have a spot for it to go into anyway.
 
Scalpers aren't a cause of the craziness. They are bottom feeding pond scum who live where the sun don't shine. They are a consequence of the shortages.

I don't know....when the 3080 dropped it was scalpers with bots that wiped out stocks worldwide in a matter of seconds. They carry a lot of blame in this mess too.

I actually think it was a perfect storm. Covid, scalpers, bots then another mining boom. All came together at just the right time to knock us back to the GPU dark ages.
 
I don't know....when the 3080 dropped it was scalpers with bots that wiped out stocks worldwide in a matter of seconds. They carry a lot of blame in this mess too.

I actually think it was a perfect storm. Covid, scalpers, bots then another mining boom. All came together at just the right time to knock us back to the GPU dark ages.
The bots are just a tool for the scalpers and the miners. If there was sufficient supply, even for the miners, then the scalpers would not exist. It's the miners, enabled by bots, who have enabled the scalpers, also with bots.
 
I don't know....when the 3080 dropped it was scalpers with bots that wiped out stocks worldwide in a matter of seconds. They carry a lot of blame in this mess too.
It would only have changed the distribution of the cards from people that either have a need for it or specially rich to a more general one, how many card missing to fill the demand will be virtually the same I imagine (baring some scalper hoarding it in container which a very doubt)
 
There was a thread today about Best Buy stocking some FE cards. Someone mentioned "syndicates paying people" to wait in line. I had thought that with the shutdowns in China, etc., that the demand for new cards for mining was going down. No?

Also, aren't these cards hash rate limited?
No. Mining is a zero sum game so the shutdowns in China only made it even more profitable for people outside of China to mine. This largely helped offset the recent decreases in profitability due to price drops and difficulty increases. Right now even with expensive electricity power costs would only consume 10% of my monthly revenue so there's still a long way to go for mining to become unprofitable enough for people to sell their cards and ease demand. Also, there was a lot of uncertainty around ETH's EIP-1559 update but it turned out to not be the end of the world. So although some people sold their cards before it happened, a lot that were holding off on purchases saw that profitability wasn't much effected and made those purchases.
 
there's talk of ETH 2.0 not making its JAN 1 deadline (surprised pikachu face). regardless, it sounds like if ETH 2.0 ever does happen, the mining will shift over to ETC and RVN.

if you need or want some bit of tech, you need to have it in your hands before black Friday. You think this crap fest is bad now, it has only just begun.
 
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there's talk of ETH 2.0 not making its JAN 1 deadline (surprised pikachu face). regardless, it sounds like if ETH 2.0 ever does happen, the mining will shift over to ETC and RVN.
It's not going to happen until Q1 of next year now. The devs have said as much. Too much work left to be done for it to make December.

People think they are going to just switch over to ETC, ERG, and RVN. They have this idea that those projects will suddenly have a massive surge in market cap when ETH goes proof of stake. I'm definitely skeptical. It would need to be an epic injection of market capital for that to happen and absorb the amount of network hash rate on ETH right now.

I think some people are in lala land. It's going to be a bloodbath when it happens and there will be a tidal wave of used GPUs hitting the market for sale.
 
It's not going to happen until Q1 of next year now. The devs have said as much. Too much work left to be done for it to make December.

People think they are going to just switch over to ETC, ERG, and RVN. They have this idea that those projects will suddenly have a massive surge in market cap when ETH goes proof of stake. I'm definitely skeptical. It would need to be an epic injection of market capital for that to happen and absorb the amount of network hash rate on ETH right now.

I think some people are in lala land. It's going to be a bloodbath when it happens and there will be a tidal wave of used GPUs hitting the market for sale.
I think a lot of people are in lala land right now. This craze about the value of BTC is like, exactly what do you do with BTC? Speculate? That relies on the Greater Fool Theory, and there are only so many Greater Fools. Store of Value? Sure, but the price fluctuations are so big that I would rather buy gold. And either gold nor BTC pays dividends or interest. Sure some guys are making out like crazy, but for how long?

Exactly what economic use is BTC, except for drug deals and ransomware? Safe? Not exactly, with all the wallet thefts, etc.

The only reason mainline financial organizations are paying attention is the current speculative fever, just like the sub-prime mortgage crisis from 2009. One banker said, "When the music is playing, you have to get up and dance."

My only real concern is that when the crash does happen, a lot of people will be hurt who can't absorb their losses easily. You know, "the little guy."
 
Exactly what economic use is BTC, except for drug deals and ransomware? Safe? Not exactly, with all the wallet thefts, etc.
For giant company would :
1) It become stable enough (which would include a steady increase, as long that it is quite predictable and positive or neutral)
2) Interest rate stay very low relative in safe usual store of value to inflation.
3) Become actually 100% safe for an entity that has the money-knowhow to do it.

It could be an interesting store of value instead of using negative interest bond, in a world in which people buy that:
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmbmkde-10y?countrycode=bx

It does shows people are ready to pay quite a lot to not have to pay for the storage-security-problems of keeping it in cash-gold somewhere, if bitcoin does it cheaper it could become popular.

But the digital china yuan-us dollar-euro could do all of that much better I imagine.
 
I think a lot of people are in lala land right now. This craze about the value of BTC is like, exactly what do you do with BTC? Speculate? That relies on the Greater Fool Theory, and there are only so many Greater Fools. Store of Value? Sure, but the price fluctuations are so big that I would rather buy gold. And either gold nor BTC pays dividends or interest. Sure some guys are making out like crazy, but for how long?
I suppose the answer to one degree or another is both. You can make a lot of money and lose your shirt too on speculating. Many people have, and have done so with equities too. Not all equities pay dividends either and let's not even joke about interest rates at this point lol. You can buy physical gold with bitcoin if you want. As far as how long some people will do well, that all depends on how long the market run lasts, when they got in, and when they sell. As with all investments.

I love gold and silver as a store of value. They aren't a great investment vehicle otherwise. Gold hasn't really done much in a while now, nor has silver. They've largely maintained their value but they haven't gone sky high or hit the dumpster either making it hard to really 'make money' off of market swings there. If you want to go that route it's a long game. Gold was $400 once, like a few eons ago haha.

Exactly what economic use is BTC, except for drug deals and ransomware? Safe? Not exactly, with all the wallet thefts, etc.
It's digital money being treated like an equity for tax purposes. I try not to overthink it. Bitcoin is really a pretty poor digital currency with high transaction fees and processing time. Eventually something else will push it out of the top spot where it survives right now largely by virtue of being "the first" one. Bitcoin is also not anonymous and is possible to trace. Privacy coins are a better option for that. FWIW, I haven't bought any gold with it yet but I have used a privacy coin to facilitate a GPU transaction over craigslist. It isn't all 'drug dealers' using it though that claim is frequently touted by those who don't support the use of 'cash' and want it removed from society to exchange privacy for security.

My only real concern is that when the crash does happen, a lot of people will be hurt who can't absorb their losses easily. You know, "the little guy."
If the "little guy" can't be bothered to secure their own wallet or invests far more than they can afford to lose then that is their own fault and I don't have a lot of sympathy for people making poor choices due to stupidity or greed. This really isn't rocket science.
 
I'm not an economics expert but I kinda think they are. The very post above yours is a guy that has bought 4 GPU's. Miners buying cards in bushels all across the globe and in some cases by the pallet just to mine is a big reason demand is so high. They may not be the only reason and I know Covid and scalpers hold blame too but they are a big reason just like they were years ago when they wiped out stocks world wide.

It's clear both aneqdotally and quantitatively. Another indication is the fact that non-LHR cards are going for 25% more in the secondary market than LHR cards -- this tells me mining has a good something to do with demand.
 
No doubt it does. Miners get about 25% of the cards, gamers around 75%. At this point since the supply is so constrained any pressure is going to aggravate the situation.
 
Supply issues, technical issues, covid, whatever - all well and good.
However, summer is over, and the coin market is about to ramp up at least to April-May levels. Whatever GPU whoever will make, it will be gone immediately.
I've been following the coins charts since earlier this month and IMHO it will get much worse before it'll get better.
 
Chip shortages are a direct consequence of increased demand, not manufacturing issues. You are mixing a symptom and a potential explanation.
The demand however is not 100% GPU. There are many facets to the issue... the biggest issue is probably every player in the chip business using the same supplier and everyone needing the latest greatest fab tech. Apple, AMD, Nvidia, Intel now AI companies, the car companies, the Satellite internet companies ect ect are all looking for 7nm, 7nm+ and 5nm chips almost always from TMSC. Nvidia tried to use Samsung... but Samsung was pushing it to get their mostly equivalent process to market at the same time, they are doing better now... but who knows if they will be an option going forward or not.

Anyway my point is simple.... its both. Increased demand with all the pressure being on the only company capable of supplying chips. As well as manufacturing issues... TMSC can't just decide to double production. The other options Samsung, Global foundries, Intel have really not been options for most companies. Samsung sort of got Nvidia through one product cycle... Global Foundries canceled their move 7nm so all their customers ended up with TMSC as well. Intel can't get their shit together and are now also a major TMSC customer. TMSC did not expect to be come the one fab to rule them all... I mean its obviously where they would want to be but I guarantee never in their wildest dreams even 5 years back would they have expected Intel to be stalled, global foundries to have tapped out and for Samsung to be a cost competitor on mid range only. Even now I'm sure they are hesitant to bring up billions of dollars of new fabs to meet demand.... other companies could pull their shit together and bring up lines and TMSC demand could drop, leaving them with far to much invested into 1-2 generations. Intel obviously intends to do just that... their long range plans don't include TMSC fabbing their GPUs forever, Nvidia has already proven they will go with Samsung if they can... and AMD who knows there moving product now but history has shown that could end if Intel was to drop something better. Apple is probably the only consumer business they can count on long term... car chips, ai chips, tesla chips and the like who knows how long that demand will continue to require the top end fab space.
 
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One thing's for sure... we're all blue in the face talking about it at this point. Apart from a few subtle nuances, I'm thinking most of us are in agreement.

I long for the days of speculating about the technology and not market dynamics! But this cannot, unfortunately, be extricated from that at this point.
 
One thing's for sure... we're all blue in the face talking about it at this point. Apart from a few subtle nuances, I'm thinking most of us are in agreement.

I long for the days of speculating about the technology and not market dynamics! But this cannot, unfortunately, be extricated from that at this point.
What he said.

I don't really care about all the details of the nm of this or that foundry or process. In fact, I wish there were so many foundries that supply would not be an issue. And that NVidia and AMD had at least two viable competitors. I just want to know about many shader units, or whatever, is on a card. Plus specs like RAM and clock. Just like the "old days" back in 2019.
 
the short story is 300$ might get you a used 1060 6gb. And it ain't getting better soon, if ever.
 
As far as how long some people will do well, that all depends on how long the market run lasts, when they got in, and when they sell. As with all investments.
With some nuance here.

Someone that bought 100 stock of Microsoft in 1990 and never reinvested is dividend or anything has 14,400 share now with the splits.

Last annual dividend was 2.24 and the current growth rate is over 30% he could soon make over 40K a year in dividend. When they did their special $3.00 dividend in 2004 that person made $42K that day.

Microsoft could close suddenly tomorrow and the person that never sold would still have done extremely well, investment does not always assume a selling point or a selling event to be a good one, lot of people will be happy to die in the house they invested in, some company with run to the ground the tools-real estate-machinery, education class for employee, they bought without ever reselling them and so on.
 
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I've been following the coins charts since earlier this month and IMHO it will get much worse before it'll get better.
I mean if you're really that sure of yourself then I would assume you have invested at this point because if you haven't then you're letting an opportunity walk away from you.
 
I mean if you're really that sure of yourself then I would assume you have invested at this point because if you haven't then you're letting an opportunity walk away from you.
I'm toying with small plays, as I've never traded before and like the newbie rush. From what I understand though, it's ETH 2 and ADA that will fuel the growth for some time, due to their supposed lesser impact on power consumption.
 
I'm toying with small plays, as I've never traded before and like the newbie rush. From what I understand though, it's ETH 2 and ADA that will fuel the growth for some time, due to their supposed lesser impact on power consumption.
even at full tilt, crypto is less impactful on the power industry than what the shock and horror articles would lead you to believe. comparing crypto to a small country is irrelevant, When the banking industry is purposefully left off the list. .
 
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