So after this BTC halving, should I invest a ton of money or what?

but as you read from those 2 links, they are also using 10% as a label for crypto correction territory. So don't kill the messager , write them a letter. Whether you want to classify bitcoin as a commodity, or called Crypto category, it changes nothing. The Market maker is still using 10% as in correction category.

Further, their entire portfolio is based on a Fibonacci grid, so once it falls off a certain layer of grid, program selling automatically takes off, in this case, 10%. Just work out the ratio of 1.618% yourself.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fibonacci_sequence

if you use software such as Medved Trader, he automatically draw the fibonacci grid for you
 
Happy Hopping said:
but as you read from those 2 links, they are also using 10% as a label for crypto correction territory. So don't kill the messager , write them a letter. Whether you want to classify bitcoin as a commodity, or called Crypto category, it changes nothing. The Market maker is still using 10% as in correction category.

Further, their entire portfolio is based on a Fibonacci grid, so once it falls off a certain layer of grid, program selling automatically takes off, in this case, 10%. Just work out the ratio of 1.618% yourself.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fibonacci_sequence

if you use software such as Medved Trader, he automatically draw the fibonacci grid for you
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The market maker for crypto is quite a few exchanges as well as large fiat to crypto sales. Not a single party. Crypto news is published for every single significant movement in every direction. It's also published to manipulate the price of crypto. Take it with a grain of salt.

What is this "correction" you speak of? Btc has established a pretty comfortable value and has yet to test upper resistance while showing a degree of lower resistance. Where do you expect it to correct to?

10% is nothing. Look at the past few exciting cycles of crypto you will see some significant movement. It's possible for parties involved in crypto to make it move violently. Examples: large orders on a exchange cause a crash in price and the order book swings drastically, this liquidates all margin positions and stop losses. Or, a single party like a etf decides they want move the value of crypto, a inflow of value into crypto changes by 100m and the price is effected. So why does this event seem significant to you?

I'm a fan of the many applications of mathematics in finance but that application of the fib sequance is largly irrelevent to the situation. You would be more accurate assuming crypto follows the pattern of a random walk or brownian motion.

Although there has been some cyclic patterns represented through the years. I would almost assume this time period after stagnation has to be different, as the market thinks it has wised up to the movement of crypto.
 
GoldenTiger said:
I reverse mortgaged my house to buy a bunch of bitcoin yesterday.
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giphy.gif
 
LAST BULL RUN:

last_run.png



THIS UPCOMING BULL RUN

this_run.png




If you want bigger gains (10x-30x PLUS, go alt-coin instead), keep it simple stupid! Things are just getting spicy. BTC literally runs up every four years right before November.
 
Let me play the other side of the case:

1) this wk, it gained 10.922%,(using Thurs. closed as the end of the long weekend, eventhough there are small trade on Fri.) can it be Q1 windows dressings?

2) it already gained 68.043% for the entire Q1 2024, are you people saying there is still more run this yr.?

if so, what's the floor? $50K or $60K?
 
I literally gave you a graph with pretty colors and boxes where you can take profit. When you see BTC hit 80k-100k area and everything is going crazy and you're still thinking about it, it'll be the bear market again for another 3 years before you know it.
 
You have to admit the graph looks like ea. time it hits $70K, it drops back down, like what happened on Mon. / Tues. of Mar. 18 to 19

See some of you reminds me of Mary Meeker, as she said the exact same type of things about Yahoo, ebay, Excite, Globe, etc., look how well that turns out after Mar. 2000
 
Happy Hopping said:
You have to admit the graph looks like ea. time it hits $70K, it drops back down, like what happened on Mon. / Tues. of Mar. 18 to 19

See some of you reminds me of Mary Meeker, as she said the exact same type of things about Yahoo, ebay, Excite, Globe, etc., look how well that turns out after Mar. 2000
Click to expand...

If you're not going to put the work in to educate yourself just stick with your stocks, you seem incapable of separating that from crypto and your questions are quickly becoming repetitive and redundant.

If you decide to educate yourself instead of wasting time trying to argue here I'll give you a starting point...

https://www.youtube.com/@crypto101podcast

https://www.youtube.com/@WhiteboardCrypto

https://www.youtube.com/@TheCryptoLark/videos

Maybe look up some Michael Saylor interviews.
 
not only I have heard his talk about digital gold, I lost $1500 on his MSTR last Thurs. His stock drop $286 on Mon, so I go in, turns out it drop again for a few hundred dollar on Tues. on an intraday basis, but ends down another $84., so even it bounces back up some, my option call is a total wash.
 
Happy Hopping said:
not only I have heard his talk about digital gold, I lost $1500 on his MSTR last Thurs. His stock drop $286 on Mon, so I go in, turns out it drop again for a few hundred dollar on Tues. on an intraday basis, but ends down another $84., so even it bounces back up some, my option call is a total wash.
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Buy some Coinye West (COINYE) and thank me later. It's on the BASE network. ;)
 
Happy Hopping said:
not only I have heard his talk about digital gold, I lost $1500 on his MSTR last Thurs. His stock drop $286 on Mon, so I go in, turns out it drop again for a few hundred dollar on Tues. on an intraday basis, but ends down another $84., so even it bounces back up some, my option call is a total wash.
Click to expand...

Why would you buy digital gold?

At this point I'm just going to assume you are trolling this thread and nothing you've said is meant to be taken seriously.
 
Happy Hopping said:
I never say I buy digital gold, Saylor said digital gold, watch his interview
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He said Bitcoin was similar to something like digital gold.
Again, at this point it's starting to become obvious you're just trolling, either that or someone needs to tell your babysitter you got a hold of the wi-fi password and it needs to be changed because you shouldn't be allowed online without adult supervision.
 
I am simply stating that there is no way that there is any stock or ETF or commodity or in your case, Bitcoin that has parabolic gain, and it can HOLD that kind of gain. As recent as this morning, at CNBC, Steve Cohen of Point72 said the same thing, he's neutral on bitcoin. He said his son likes it, that's it. He is no enthusiasm on this
 
Happy Hopping said:
I am simply stating that there is no way that there is any stock or ETF or commodity or in your case, Bitcoin that has parabolic gain, and it can HOLD that kind of gain. As recent as this morning, at CNBC, Steve Cohen of Point72 said the same thing, he's neutral on bitcoin. He said his son likes it, that's it. He is no enthusiasm on this
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The growth hasnt been parabolic recently its been pretty healthy with lots of stagnation and movment to help set resistance.

Whats the fair value for btc? it was just as comfortable at 10k as 70k with only a arbatrary fair value, that is not the case for any stock, fiat, commodity, etf...

mainstream sources for news have a horrific track record regarding analyzing crypto movement and have often been more aligned with trying to manipulate price.

Just buy crypto and hold it for a few years, trading it with such a flawed idea of the market is a recipe for disaster.
 
Happy Hopping said:
I am simply stating that there is no way that there is any stock or ETF or commodity or in your case, Bitcoin that has parabolic gain, and it can HOLD that kind of gain. As recent as this morning, at CNBC, Steve Cohen of Point72 said the same thing, he's neutral on bitcoin. He said his son likes it, that's it. He is no enthusiasm on this
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You keep listening to the corporate news monkeys and while you're doing that I'll be over here making money with crypto.
 
As they say, only invest what you can afford to lose. But with the way things seem to be going, it wouldn't hurt to diversify a bit and get some exposure.
 

" after this BTC halving, should I invest a ton of money or what?"​




to the original poster who start the above question, clearly the answer is no. It is now clear that some overly enthusiastic buyers were expecting a rise after the halving at or near Apr. 16, so they bought up these bitcoin to the $73K range, and when nothing happens, they sell their share of bitcoin. Bitcoin drops from $73750 to the $56K today, a 22.73% drop, well into bear market territory. That's a serious nose dive. And to make matter worse, the market is now in the "Sell May and Go Away" period

The stock market overall is in the same camp, 1 of the strong reason is that J Powell is not lowering int. rate, so those high year end S&P target all got brought down, and when trading firm such as Goldman having some part of their portfolio in bitcoin, when they don't see int. rate coming down at all or just 1 cut this year, they sell, so this brings down the stock market and bitcoin along w/ it.
 
Of course hindsight is 20/20. The easy money for getting in early is long gone, Now you have to play it like any other commodity/stock - charts, analysis and timing. Is $57k the new bottom? Who knows? Well no one really knows. BTC does sort of follow the major stock indexes now. In the early days it was much more wild, and a lot more upside for those "in the know". Halving is a scarcity event that will effect miners. ie - going down because their efficiency of their mining infrastructure has basically been cut in half (again).
 
Happy Hopping said:

" after this BTC halving, should I invest a ton of money or what?"​




to the original poster who start the above question, clearly the answer is no. It is now clear that some overly enthusiastic buyers were expecting a rise after the halving at or near Apr. 16, so they bought up these bitcoin to the $73K range, and when nothing happens, they sell their share of bitcoin. Bitcoin drops from $73750 to the $56K today, a 22.73% drop, well into bear market territory. That's a serious nose dive. And to make matter worse, the market is now in the "Sell May and Go Away" period

The stock market overall is in the same camp, 1 of the strong reason is that J Powell is not lowering int. rate, so those high year end S&P target all got brought down, and when trading firm such as Goldman having some part of their portfolio in bitcoin, when they don't see int. rate coming down at all or just 1 cut this year, they sell, so this brings down the stock market and bitcoin along w/ it.
Click to expand...

Just quoting you because instead of getting your entry in now since you're already sitting on the sidelines.. you're going "I told you so" because the sheeps got fear mongered into giving the big boys a discount..

Gonna bump this up to see how you feel in a few months. It sucks some people are seeing red in their portfolio but it sucks even more when the real bullrun picks up and you're just watching instead of being in it.
 
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Happy Hopping said:

" after this BTC halving, should I invest a ton of money or what?"​




to the original poster who start the above question, clearly the answer is no. It is now clear that some overly enthusiastic buyers were expecting a rise after the halving at or near Apr. 16, so they bought up these bitcoin to the $73K range, and when nothing happens, they sell their share of bitcoin. Bitcoin drops from $73750 to the $56K today, a 22.73% drop, well into bear market territory. That's a serious nose dive. And to make matter worse, the market is now in the "Sell May and Go Away" period

The stock market overall is in the same camp, 1 of the strong reason is that J Powell is not lowering int. rate, so those high year end S&P target all got brought down, and when trading firm such as Goldman having some part of their portfolio in bitcoin, when they don't see int. rate coming down at all or just 1 cut this year, they sell, so this brings down the stock market and bitcoin along w/ it.
Click to expand...
This is what every single Crypto noob says, expecting 5000% overnight returns. All I can tell you is that I am long on BTC and ETH. BTC is a collectors item and will be worth big bucks at some point in the future but no one knows when that will be.

Also, stop comparing the stock market to crypto, they aren't the same thing.
 
The coupling of the stock market and crypto is intentional by financial institutions. It is a bad thing for crypto and we may not see any crazy runs like we did in the past.

Although crypto dropping slightly or stagnating is a positive for its value.
 
Mega6 said:
Now you have to play it like any other commodity/stock - charts, analysis and timing.
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That really not how you have to play things, life long monthly investing in a mortgage, forced retirement fund by your government, S&P500 index with 1-2 other is also a very reasonable option. Without ever looking at any chart and specially thinking you can time things.

Happy Hopping said:
It is now clear that some overly enthusiastic buyers were expecting a rise after the halving at or near Apr. 16, so they bought up these bitcoin to the $73K range
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never understood that part, why someone already known by everyone would not have been already factored in the price.... always did sound like a mix of fraud going on with a lot of just creator needing content in that space and that easy and good content.

the_elder said:
only invest what you can afford to lose.
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Few can build a nice retirement by investing only the extra they can afford to loose and place everything else in what exactly ?
 
LukeTbk said:
Few can build a nice retirement by investing only the extra they can afford to loose and place everything else in what exactly ?
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Your bank account and just have it sit there and do nothing!

My bank account has enough to pay bills every month / food and the rest goes you know where =)

Gonna retire this bullrun not making the same mistake as the last one!
 
If you can afford to loose 100% of your equity... because you can still buy food next week... well ok, obviously I do not imagine anyone ever suggesting otherwise... but loosing say your house/core retirement, is not what people usually have in mind in what they include in their can afford to lose view of their asset.
 
LukeTbk said:
If you can afford to loose 100% of your equity... because you can still buy food next week... well ok, obviously I do not imagine anyone ever suggesting otherwise... but loosing say your house/core retirement, is not what people usually have in mind in what they include in their can afford to lose view of their asset.
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Problem is in the Crypto space since it came about and got popular is you see people literally bet the house, because some other twitter influencer made millions over night off some sh*t coin, and everyone else thinks they can do the same. So they put all their money in, buy every coin that drops then lose it all and cry a river....Then they do it again as soon as they can, because instead of investing in themselves first, to then be able to make decent money in a job, they want the quick way out.

it is the same for people who spend far too much on lottery tickets every week instead of doing other things to improve their lives...
 
I think I made the better choice DCAing everything into coins like Solana the last 2-3 years instead of the S&P500.
 
w/ the talk of only 1 rate cut this year, in which rate cut boost beta stock and as such, other non-alpha investment such as bitcoin, the market should be trading down to easily 4700 in the S&P. I'll go back in if it reach the Nov. 2023 low of around 4150 or so.

And since the owner of MSTR called bitcoin digital gold, I would like to remind you people of the gold hype by John Paulson. John is the guy in "The Big Short", where he makes billions in short selling Lehman, Bear Stern etc. He hype up gold to be $5K. In the end, gold never hit $5K. I think gold hit $1.2K and that's it.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/billionaire-john-paulson-2023-portfolio-100813416.html

so this is no difference. It's a digital gold rush instead of gold rush. People hyping up bitcoin to that $100K target and more. Btwn. now and Oct., bitcoin can easily drop a few thousand per day back to $30K. Although due to hedge and mutual funds closing in Oct. and Nov., the market should bounce back up after Oct., bitcoin along w/ it. It all depends on how much the effect of "Sell May and Go Away" turns out to be
 
Happy Hopping said:
w/ the talk of only 1 rate cut this year, in which rate cut boost beta stock and as such, other non-alpha investment such as bitcoin, the market should be trading down to easily 4700 in the S&P. I'll go back in if it reach the Nov. 2023 low of around 4150 or so.

And since the owner of MSTR called bitcoin digital gold, I would like to remind you people of the gold hype by John Paulson. John is the guy in "The Big Short", where he makes billions in short selling Lehman, Bear Stern etc. He hype up gold to be $5K. In the end, gold never hit $5K. I think gold hit $1.2K and that's it.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/billionaire-john-paulson-2023-portfolio-100813416.html

so this is no difference. It's a digital gold rush instead of gold rush. People hyping up bitcoin to that $100K target and more. Btwn. now and Oct., bitcoin can easily drop a few thousand per day back to $30K. Although due to hedge and mutual funds closing in Oct. and Nov., the market should bounce back up after Oct., bitcoin along w/ it. It all depends on how much the effect of "Sell May and Go Away" turns out to be
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Okay, just keep watching, bet you didn't buy that dip.

Oh yeah, buy AMC calls expiring in 2025/2026 and retire.
 
BTC/crypto was just to pay for the r&d to get the ai processing hardware that's why they staged it to get so crazy a few years back.
 
You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make him drink. My biggest lesson learned since starting this journey in 2013.
 
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