Snapshot from my distributor - Almost! <<CONROE>>

[Nitebane]

UPDATE: 07/10/06

<< ADDED 2 MORE DISTS >>​

Just giving you guys an idea of the cost of these guys, and what sellers are selling them for

Also note when my dist is showing it as avail (this is the kinda place zzf, ne and others buy mass quantities from, to sell to you guys)
DIST #1 (D&H)

BX80557E6300 Intel Corp.
BX80557E6300 Core 2 Duo E6300 Processor 197.50 Add to
Watch List
BX80557E6300T2 Intel Corp.
BX80557E6300T2 Core 2 Duo E6300 CPU BTX 2.0 206.88 Add to
Watch List
BX80557E6400 Intel Corp.
BX80557E6400 Core 2 Duo E6400 Processor 237.08 Add to
Watch List
BX80557E6600 Intel Corp.
BX80557E6600 Core 2 Duo E6600 Processor 330.83 Add to
Watch List
BX80557E6700 Intel Corp.
BX80557E6700 Core 2 Duo E6700 Processor 547.50 Add to
Watch List
BX80557X6800 Intel Corp.
BX80557X6800 Core 2 Extreme E6800 Processor 1001.04 Add to
Watch List

California 0 5 08/18/06
Chicago 0 2 08/15/06
Dallas 0 4 08/15/06
Florida 0 4 08/15/06
Harrisburg 0 2 07/17/06
Harrisburg-West 0 07/17/06

DIST #2 (SYNNEX)

DAT Norcross GA 0 150
DNJ Edison NJ 0 940
DLA City of Industry CA 0 880
DFL Miami FL 0 185
BLKN COMPTON CA 0 0
DFR Fremont CA 0 755
DDS Fremont CA 0 0
DTN Memphis TN 0 155
DNV North Las Vegas NV 0 160
ACCE Greensburg PA 0 0
DDC Chantilly VA 0 90
DCH Glendale Hts IL 0 765
KIN1 FOUNTAIN VALLEY CA 0 0
ACCW Ventura CA 0 0
DOR Beaverton OR 0 90
DTX Richardson TX 0 90

total 0 4260 on order

DIST #3 (TECHDATA)

SWEDESBORO, NJ 0 280 09/17/06
SUWANEE, GA 0 80 09/10/06
SOUTH BEND, IN 0 280 09/24/06
FT WORTH, TX 0 260 09/03/06
FONTANA, CA 0 260 08/27/06
FL & EXPORT ONLY 0 0


Looks like its going to be at least late August till we see any of these online etailer sites actually having any in stock. (This is 3 Dists, and this is where these people buy from to sell to you, dont listen to their flack to get preorders in - its gonna be a long while still!)

GL on your purchases, and hope you all enjoy them!

 

[DellH4ter]

Those prices are higher than what people are saying the MSRP is supposed to be. So is the MSRP info wrong, or are the prices just higher?? Weird.

 

[tys90]

Ugh...I really don't like those dates, besides the bottom two.

 

[StealthyFish]

i guess retailers want to jump on and pick up some extra profit before they drop it back to MSRP (and below)

 

[DellH4ter]

i guess retailers want to jump on and pick up some extra profit before they drop it back to MSRP (and below)

yea but that's the distributor pricing (what it costs retailers to buy them) not what retailers are charging. So it's not a profit for the retailers. I guess that's why the conroe pre-orders have been more expensive than people though. Here we thought it was gouging, but maybe not. I guess it makes sense if the distributors are charging more, but I just wonder why they are

 

[Chilly]

yea but that's the distributor pricing (what it costs retailers to buy them) not what retailers are charging. So it's not a profit for the retailers. I guess that's why the conroe pre-orders have been more expensive than people though. Here we thought it was gouging, but maybe not. I guess it makes sense if the distributors are charging more, but I just wonder why they are

because the distributors are having a hard time getting them in time for launch, it seems plenty are gonna be in stock for mid/late august (probobly when prices will settle down and correct themselves) seems to me out of the 6 warehouses he listed only 2 will have cpus in time for launch.

 

[Jason711]

damn, i thought the 6600 was gonna be $300.

 

[Nitebane]

Just to add, the prices listed are for the cost of a 1 item purchase, I didnt select mass quantity, the price would be less per unit for that scenario.

Jason771: The lowest so far im seeing it avail for preorder, is from PCSuperDeals @ $336.97.

 

[Jason711]

Just to add, the prices listed are for the cost of a 1 item purchase, I didnt select mass quantity, the price would be less per unit for that scenario.

Jason771: The lowest so far im seeing it avail for preorder, is from PCSuperDeals @ $336.97.

i suppose that isnt the worst case scenario.

 

[DellH4ter]

Yea but I've never heard of pcsuperdeals, and I don't think they are on resellerratings either. You can get it from more reputable retailers for a few bucks more. I'd rather not take the risk.

 

[Nitebane]

Dellh4ter: I absolutely agree! Just giving him a ballpark of what he should be expecting price wise for a retail E6600 purchase.

 

[brucedeluxe169]

smart thing to do would be to just wait a month or two, or even three until the prices go down...

i'm sure most of you guys have competent PCs..

 

[StealthyFish]

preorders are always equalling or more expensive though.

 

[DellH4ter]

Dellh4ter: I absolutely agree! Just giving him a ballpark of what he should be expecting price wise for a retail E6600 purchase.

For sure. I've seen a few stores charging $390

Gotta love the gouging. I jumped on a pre-order quick because I was afraid what would happen if demand >> supply later. That was ugly with the Opterons!

 

[FreiDOg]

any Idea how many units are supposed to be at

Harrisburg 0 2 07/17/06
Harrisburg-West 0 07/17/06

as compared to the 8/15 dates (or a previous CPU launch if you have that)?

Just trying to get an idea of the volume to expect with that first order.

 

[Nitebane]

brucedeluxe169: Indeed, but then again a few months after you waited to purchase the Conroe, Intel will be just coming out w/ the Quad Conroe shortly after.

In my business, I know for fact prices will drop considerabley if you wait, but at EVERY situation, you will find once you finally bought it you will see the next best "flagship" product released shortly after your buy.

Its really a matter of how badly you need it, or how much you want it I guess.

FreiDOg: Looks between 1300-1600 each warehouse.

For those who were wondering on the MB, I am seeing this:

BOXD975XBXLKR Intel Corp.
BOXD975XBXLKR ATX 975X DDR2 667/533 SDRAM 225.16

California 0 5 07/21/06
Chicago 0 2 07/28/06
Dallas 0 4 07/28/06
Florida 0 4 07/28/06
Harrisburg 0 2 07/14/06
Harrisburg-West 0 2 07/14/06

 

[pxc]

Those prices are higher than what people are saying the MSRP is supposed to be. So is the MSRP info wrong, or are the prices just higher?? Weird.

Intel's price lists are for 10,000 quantity tray prices, not a MSRP. Boxed and OEM retail prices are normally a bit higher than Intel price lists at least initially.

 

[DellH4ter]

Intel's price lists are for 10,000 quantity tray prices, not a MSRP. Boxed and OEM retail prices are normally a bit higher than Intel price lists at least initially.

That's right, duh, I forgot about that. Well then, I stand corrected

 

[burningrave101]

Those prices are higher than what people are saying the MSRP is supposed to be. So is the MSRP info wrong, or are the prices just higher?? Weird.

Well people dont know what they're talking about if they think the Conroe processors are going to be priced at MSRP at launch. Its obvious that Intel has huge orders to the major OEM's. Prices will reflect availability and prices will go up to meet the demand. Its just like what happens during a holiday like Memorial Day weekend or a scare on the news and everyone runs to buy gasoline at the pumps. Gas prices go up to curb the demand.

preorders are always equalling or more expensive though.

Not always. Launch day prices are very likely to be higher then pre-order prices are now because those of us who are pre-ordering dont even begin to compare to the number that will try and order the day they are in stock at places like Newegg and ZZF. Pre-order prices are set where they are to secure orders now. You notice that the major vendors aren't taking pre-orders and for good reason because demand would be higher and the major vendors know they can wait and sell at a higher cost at launch because end users will pay it to order from a vendor they are used to ordering from.

 

[Jason711]

i really cant imagine what i would do with two cores... let alone four. i guess id fold.

 

[DellH4ter]

... Launch day prices are very likely to be higher then pre-order prices are now because those of us who are pre-ordering dont even begin to compare to the number that will try and order the day they are in stock at places like Newegg and ZZF....

Oh man, I wonder what the egg's pricing will do. Isn't thier pricing system tied to inventory and order quantity? So it keeps raising the price automatically as demand spikes??? I remember the Opteron's hitting INSANE prices there.

 

[gwai lo]

I was really hoping Intel would get a handle on this availability issue too.

I leave for college on August 13th and I was hoping to have the rig assembled/tweaked/stable by the time I get on campus. Now there's more and more signs of avaliability issues and I'd really want to stay within budget (poor college student ).

Hopefully that's far enough into August..

 

[Bao01]

Well people dont know what they're talking about if they think the Conroe processors are going to be priced at MSRP at launch. Its obvious that Intel has huge orders to the major OEM's.

If it is that obvious, you would have a link to back it up. But, you don't.

Prices will reflect availability and prices will go up to meet the demand.

They will go down when more processors are available.

Its just like what happens during a holiday like Memorial Day weekend or a scare on the news and everyone runs to buy gasoline at the pumps. Gas prices go up to curb the demand.

Only half the enthusiast community is raving about Core 2 Duo. They make up a tiny fraction of the retail market. Intel wants the entire market to want Core 2 Duo.

Not always. Launch day prices are very likely to be higher then pre-order prices are now because those of us who are pre-ordering dont even begin to compare to the number that will try and order the day they are in stock at places like Newegg and ZZF.

Almost always. Launch day prices for 939 Opterons and Preslers were lower than pre-order prices and just about everything before then in just about every market. The reason is because there are no processor quantities available. So, the various little retailers will try to scalp the bejesus out of the consumer on the hedge that they "may" be able to get the chips out the door first, and so the consumer "may" want to pay more in order to get them before everyone else. This is the way the market works.

Pre-order prices are set where they are to secure orders now.

If they were set to secure orders now and not later, then they would be expecting such an enormous quantity which would so greatly exceed demand that retailers would not be able to secure an order for each stock. Therefore, the only reason why they're taking preorders is because they want to charge a premium for chips they might have soon.

You notice that the major vendors aren't taking pre-orders and for good reason because demand would be higher and the major vendors know they can wait and sell at a higher cost at launch because end users will pay it to order from a vendor they are used to ordering from.

Nonsense. Most major vendors do not take pre-orders. ZZF, Newegg, Ewiz, et-al don't take pre-orders. That is their policy. People like Monarch will sometimes sit on such golden opportunities. And sometimes not. But, don't hold your breath. Monarch has ties to AMD, not Intel.

Bottom-line, you don't know what you're talking about. The retail market is where AMD has been spanking Intel hard. This is where AMD has been shoving it down Intel's throat. This is where they have pushed past 50% market share. This is the first place for Intel to win back market share. It is lucrative. Intel has no reason to give the bulk of these chips to OEMs where there is little market share to regain. OEMs have little reason to buy these chips from Intel when they'll be priced above Preslers, from the mid to high end, where they don't have much market share anyway.

These OEM-takes-all speculations started with Rahul Sood months ago. His theory was that Intel might have trouble with yields. He was wrong. Then Ed from overclockers.com picked it up. More recently, Anand Lal Shimpi-san, a few reviewers, and theInq have added to this with the OEM twist. In fact, none of these people have any sort of evidence to back up their wild speculation because there is no evidence or precedence to back them up.

Just wait a week or two after launch. At first, it might seem like a Mexican Standoff. But, while some buyers are willing to go in head first, as soon as the first retailer blinks and lowers their prices, they'll all come tumbling after. Of course, this will happen because Intel wants this market like no other. They would not have their priorities in order if they do not to innundate it with Core 2 Duo.

 

[Jason711]

good read.

 

[Bao01]

good read.

Well, almost Opteron 939s weren't available at launch. But, I consider their real launch sometime after the Eastern Europe(Czech?) guy posted them at XS, Team Japan posted OC results, and Vandi giving the first pair to Eclipse and Baron. Anyway, if these retailers could sell out on these chips for more in three weeks than what they're trying to do now, they would wait. I've been busy trying to buy a used car - bought a 98' Nissan Pathfinder actually, real clunker but my wife OKs it so it's OK because she can do Nihon-no Kuruma.

I've heard it a hundred times if not ten or twenty times. I ended up at a used car lot with a young salesman, 26-yo, that my parents had bought twice from before and after he said straight up, "It's slow right now - gonna be slow for a while. We can work something out with you." I knew right away he was at least half-honest. And you know how I respond to people who say someone offered them so-much and such for their vehicle. LOL! Well, why don't you sell it to them and make more money. We're leaving. That line is for the gullible - you'll find plenty of them...right???

 

[burningrave101]

If it is that obvious, you would have a link to back it up. But, you don't.

I provided several links to back up what i've said about Conroe availability in the long pre-order thread already. I shouldn't have to post them in every thread.

They will go down when more processors are available.

Well no kidding but they aren't likely to be in mass quantities in the retail channel at launch.

Only half the enthusiast community is raving about Core 2 Duo. They make up a tiny fraction of the retail market. Intel wants the entire market to want Core 2 Duo.

The enthusiast community makes up around probably 2-3% of Intel's market at best i would say. The rest is OEM builders like Dell, HP, Gateway, ect. and thats exactly why Intel will have to ship several million Conroes by the end of the third quarter of this year to the OEM's. With the large demand by OEM's for Conroe and the fact that Intel themselves have shown around 12% shipping production for Conroe based processors by the END of the 3rd quarter you can guess how many are going to be available in retail channels. Intel is planning to ramp production over the next several months into the next year but at launch Intel is still going to be shipping a very large number of Pentium 4/D based processors.

http://techknowledger.blogspot.com/2006_04_22_techknowledger_archive.html

Almost always. Launch day prices for 939 Opterons and Preslers were lower than pre-order prices and just about everything before then in just about every market. The reason is because there are no processor quantities available. So, the various little retailers will try to scalp the bejesus out of the consumer on the hedge that they "may" be able to get the chips out the door first, and so the consumer "may" want to pay more in order to get them before everyone else. This is the way the market works.

Your wrong. The reason 939 Opterons and Preslers were lower at launch was because the demand was much lower then it will be for Conroe. I mean those two processors dont even compare to the Conroe launch. The 939 Opterons were great overclockers but overclockers make up an even smaller sector of the end user market. And even overclocked the Opterons dont compare to the performance of a stock speed Conroe processor.

If they were set to secure orders now and not later, then they would be expecting such an enormous quantity which would so greatly exceed demand that retailers would not be able to secure an order for each stock. Therefore, the only reason why they're taking preorders is because they want to charge a premium for chips they might have soon.

Nope. The way it works is they secure orders now for an item they dont even have in their possession yet. Its sort of like them selling air. Your pretty much buying a ticket to get one whenever they get their stock in and it will be on a first come first serve basis. You're not guaranteed to get anything by any certain date. Its completely different then buying a product thats actually in stock and ready to ship. The premiums you see now are only around $20-$30 over MSRP at several places. Thats nothing compared to what the premium might be at launch at places like Newegg if they only get a few small shipments the first few weeks.

Nonsense. Most major vendors do not take pre-orders. ZZF, Newegg, Ewiz, et-al don't take pre-orders. That is their policy. People like Monarch will sometimes sit on such golden opportunities. And sometimes not. But, don't hold your breath. Monarch has ties to AMD, not Intel.

Most major vendors do not take pre-orders and that is their policy because quite simply there would be hundreds and thousands of pre-orders. That would mean when the item actually came in stock they wouldn't have anything to actually sell. Large vendors like Newegg would rather wait and sell the item when its actually in stock and they can charge a premium if the item is in high demand. I'm sure you probably dont realize this but managing pre-order inventory can be a nightmare when you have thousands of people pre-ordering and canceling their order right and left. Thats one of the reasons why Tank Guys weren't taking pre-orders at first.

Bottom-line, you don't know what you're talking about. The retail market is where AMD has been spanking Intel hard. This is where AMD has been shoving it down Intel's throat. This is where they have pushed past 50% market share. This is the first place for Intel to win back market share. It is lucrative. Intel has no reason to give the bulk of these chips to OEMs where there is little market share to regain. OEMs have little reason to buy these chips from Intel when they'll be priced above Preslers, from the mid to high end, where they don't have much market share anyway.

Bottom-line is you have no idea how the market works or how retailers handle merchandise or how the market share is laid out. AMD may have been shoving it down Intel's throat but AMD is still stuck with their measly <20% desktop processor market share after all this time of them having the superior product with the Athlon 64. The hype of Conroe alone has forced AMD to announce huge price slashes to even try and compete at the launch of Conroe. AMD has no answer to Conroe. Intel will be killing them at the high-end and will also drive prices into the ground because Intel will be selling Pentium4/D processors at very low prices. I dont see any reason at all for Intel to be worried about the end user market which once again makes up a tiny fraction of the overall picture.

Intel makes billions of dollars off the OEM's. The end user market is just an extra bit of coin in their pocket. Dell and HP have already been marketing for Conroe systems and end uers and company owners alike will be wanting Conroe based systems, not the older Presler processors. Presler will be used in the lower-end budget systems. People dont realize how many systems the OEM's ship. Dell alone shipped over 10 million desktop PC's in one quarter alone and Dell's OEM market share is less then 20%. One of the main reasons why rumors are flying about Dell signing a contract for like a million AMD desktop and notebook processors is because Dell knows availability isn't going to be the greatest for Conroe and Merom at launch and Dell needs to secure more higher-end processors.

These OEM-takes-all speculations started with Rahul Sood months ago. His theory was that Intel might have trouble with yields. He was wrong. Then Ed from overclockers.com picked it up. More recently, Anand Lal Shimpi-san, a few reviewers, and theInq have added to this with the OEM twist. In fact, none of these people have any sort of evidence to back up their wild speculation because there is no evidence or precedence to back them up.

All the evidence needed has already been released by Intel. Intel has said themselves that they expect around 12% Conroe based processors by the end of the third quarter and upwards of 20-25% by the end of the year. That says nothing for launch which could be just a week or two away. I dont know what numbers you have been looking at but i would love for you to show me some that support any notion that there is going to be a wide availability of Conroe processors at launch in the end user market. I mean just look at the availability dates on most of Intel's distributors websites lol.

 

[Bao01]

I provided several links to back up what i've said about Conroe availability in the long pre-order thread already. I shouldn't have to post them in every thread.

You don't have any facts. You're just posting nonsense. Sooner or later, you'll have to post some because I shouldn't have to be bothered with responding to every bit of nonsense you come up with.

Well no kidding but they aren't likely to be in mass quantities in the retail channel at launch.

Prove it.

The enthusiast community makes up around probably 2-3% of Intel's market at best i would say.

The enthusiast community is not the retail market. The retail market comprises both retail boxed and oem processors, desktop systems from small time vendors, mom-and-pop operations, e-tail and brick-and-mortar rigs. They go through the same distributor channels as opposed to the giant OEMs such as Dell, HP, Gateway, etc.

The rest is OEM builders like Dell, HP, Gateway, ect. and thats exactly why Intel will have to ship several million Conroe's by the end of the third quarter of this year to the OEM's. With the large demand by OEM's for Conroe and the fact that Intel themselves have shown around 12% shipping production for Conroe based processors by the END of the 3rd quarter you can guess how many are going to be available in retail channels. Intel is planning to ramp production over the next several months into the next year but at launch Intel is still going to be shipping a very large number of Pentium 4/D based processors.


http://techknowledger.blogspot.com/2006_04_22_techknowledger_archive.html

This is old news that debunks your claim. The chart is for OEM guidance. In fact, when you contrast it against an older chart from Dailytech, there projections for Conroe have actually increased over what was previously believed. In the older chart, Pentium Ds, including Preslers and Smithfields made up only 12% of Q1 shipments. So, now Conroe is projected to have as much penetration as all flavors of Pentium Ds staggered exactly six months after. Face up to the facts.

Your wrong. The reason 939 Opterons and Preslers were lower at launch was because more were dedicated to this sector of the market and the demand was much lower then it will be for Conroe. The 939 Opterons were great overclockers but overclockers are only an even smaller sector or the end user market. And even overclocked they dont compare to the performance of a stock Conroe processor.

Preslers were dedicated to this sector of the market? Opterons were made in Conroe quantities? I'm sorry you have no idea what you're talking about. Conroe will be launched two-thirds of the way into the 3rd quarter. If those numbers from your own link are right, LOL! You should stop if you have some pride left. 12% of Q3 shipments will be more than AMD will ever make in 939 Opterons.

Most major vendors do not take pre-orders and that is their policy because quite simply there would be hundreds and thousands of pre-orders. That would mean when the item actually came in stock they wouldn't have anything to actually sell. Large vendors like Newegg would rather wait and sell the item when its actually in stock and they can charge a premium if the item is in high demand. I'm sure you probably dont realize this but managing pre-order inventory can be a nightmare when you have thousands of people pre-ordering and canceling their order right and left. Thats one of the reasons why Tank Guys weren't taking pre-orders at first.

Worthless fluff. The simple reason is they have reputations to uphold. If they're late, people complain. There is no way some two-bit e-tailer is going to beat out the big ones in price and price gouging on preorders is their specialty. That's something just about everyone with the experience knows. I pre-ordered an Opteron 144 shortly after the Opteron craze started. For a little history lesson, this happened when some dude in Easter Europe posted something by XS. Then, Team Japan showed their overclocks. Shortly thereafter, Vandi sent the first pair in the US to Eclipse and Baron. A few days later, I ordered my processor right when Vandi was taking PMs. Oh so, yea, these are the same vendors I checked out twice a day. And when Monarch had them in, people were silly to try and order them from anyone else. Of course Neweggs was high. But, preorders were out-of-order. This is history for you.

Bottom-line is you have no idea how the market works or how retailers handle merchandise or how the market share is laid out. AMD may have been shoving it down Intel's throat but AMD is still stuck with their measly <20% desktop processor market share after all this time of them having the superior product with the Athlon 64. The hype of Conroe alone has forced AMD to announce huge price slashes to even try and compete at the launch of Conroe. AMD has no answer to Conroe. Intel will be killing them at the high-end and will also drive prices into the ground because Intel will be selling Pentium4/D processors at very low prices. I dont see any reason at all for Intel to be worried about the end user market which once again makes up a tiny fraction of the overall picture.

The "end user market"??? The measly <20% that forced Intel to drop prices early this year??? AMD already has no answer to the Pentium Ds. These are priced to kill X2s for OEMs where price is everything. How much OEM share did Intel lose in the past 18 months because the K8 was so much better? when K8 were price better? How much are they going to lose when comparable Preslers cost 20-30 bucks less than X2s?

The OEMs have never sucked up all the high-end. The only time there has ever been a concern was with low-end parts.

Intel makes billions of dollars off the OEM's. The end user market is just an extra bit of coin in their pocket. Dell and HP have already been marketing for Conroe systems and end uers and company owners alike will be wanting Conroe based systems, not the older Presler processors. Presler will be used in the lower-end budget systems. People dont realize how many systems the OEM's ship. Dell alone shipped over 10 million desktop PC's in one quarter alone and Dell's OEM market share is less then 20%. One of the main reasons why rumors are flying about Dell signing a contract for like a million AMD desktop and notebook processors is because Dell knows availability isn't going to be the greatest for Conroe and Merom at launch and Dell needs to secure more higher-end processors.

Again, you have no idea what you're talking about because you presume the "end user market"=enthusiast. That is not the definition of the end user. The end user buys from all market segments. They comprise joe six-pack, the geek squads, the [H]ardforumers, etc. They are everyone who buys a computer for their own needs. Nope, we're talking about Vendors and Retailers, also known as the Retail Channel, or just The Channel. Ok? This market or if you will, segment of the total cpu market, comprises enthusiasts and then some, and then some more.

All the evidence needed has already been released by Intel. Intel has said themselves that they expect around 12% Conroe based processors by the end of the third quarter and upwards of 20-25% by the end of the year. That says nothing for launch which could be just a week or two away. I dont know what numbers you have been looking at but i would love for you to show me some that support any notion that there is going to be a wide availability of Conroe processors at launch in the end user market. I mean just look at the availability dates on most of Intel's distributors websites lol.

Check your facts, the most current chart which you are going by has Conroe Q3 penetration equal to Preslers and Smithfields in Q1 despite coming much later in the quarter. I happen to think the chart is inaccurate, that Conroes will comprise less than 12% of desktop shipments during Q3, less than Dailytech's estimates. But, hey they're just human. Suffice to say, the only factual claim you're willing to lean on just proves you wrong.

 

[burningrave101]

You don't have any facts. You're just posting nonsense. Sooner or later, you'll have to post some because I shouldn't have to be bothered with responding to every bit of nonsense you come up with.

And what facts do you have? I'm going right off the exact numbers Intel themselves have released that have been posted on several sites. Show me one single link that supports your idea that Conroe processors will be in any kind or large quantity at launch for end user channels. Just one.

The enthusiast community is not the retail market. The retail market comprises both retail boxed and oem processors, desktop systems from small time vendors, mom-and-pop operations, e-tail and brick-and-mortar rigs. They go through the same distributor channels as opposed to the giant OEMs such as Dell, HP, Gateway, etc.

The enthusiast community is not the retail market lol? Then where do "enthusiasts" buy their processors from? You are right that retail and OEM processors go through the same distributor channels for small time vendors, large vendors, mom and pop stores, and B&M's alike and that just goes to show how many areas the Conroe processors will be distributed to out of the fraction of Conroe based processors that will be shipped to OEM's. And shipping will be going on worldwide, not just in the states. Intel has a much larger market then AMD does. What you're trying to say just points out even further the fact that Conroe processors will be spread thin at launch because there are so many different channels to fill. And because each of those vendors, B&M's, ect. will likely get a limited quantity at first they were charge higher prices. I never said you wouldn't be able to buy one, just that you aren't going to get one for MSRP and possibly not for current pre-order pricing now ither.

This is old news that debunks your claim. The chart is for OEM guidance. In fact, when you contrast it against an older chart from Dailytech, there projections for Conroe have actually increased over what was previously believed. In the older chart, Pentium Ds, including Preslers and Smithfields made up only 12% of Q1 shipments. So, now Conroe is projected to have as much penetration as all flavors of Pentium Ds staggered exactly six months after. Face up to the facts.

You need to learn how to read a chart. Going off that older chart you just linked to at the end of end of the third quarter Conroe is projected to be at only 10% of production, Pendium D at almost 50% and Pentium 4 at over 40%. And you do realize that the end of the third quarter is still quite a ways away right? That means only a few million of Conroe processors will ship the entire third quarter and the OEM's alone will demand several million which will quickly soak up stock. Then the rest will be distributed to vendors and stores worldwide.

Preslers were dedicated to this sector of the market? Opterons were made in Conroe quantities? I'm sorry you have no idea what you're talking about. Conroe will be launched two-thirds of the way into the 3rd quarter. If those numbers from your own link are right, LOL! You should stop if you have some pride left. 12% of Q3 shipments will be more than AMD will ever make in 939 Opterons.

If you noticed i edited my post earlier on that because that wasn't exactly what i meant to say. What i meant was that the demand for Presler and Opteron based processors was MUCH lower then the demand will be for Conroe at launch, compared to the Opterons especially. The average user was not buying an AMD Opteron. The average user was buying Athlon 64/X2's if they were buying AMD. And once again AMD's market is much smaller worldwide then Intel's.

Worthless fluff. The simple reason is they have reputations to uphold. If they're late, people complain. There is no way some two-bit e-tailer is going to beat out the big ones in price and price gouging on preorders is their specialty. That's something just about everyone with the experience knows. I pre-ordered an Opteron 144 shortly after the Opteron craze started. For a little history lesson, this happened when some dude in Easter Europe posted something by XS. Then, Team Japan showed their overclocks. Shortly thereafter, Vandi sent the first pair in the US to Eclipse and Baron. A few days later, I ordered my processor right when Vandi was taking PMs. Oh so, yea, these are the same vendors I checked out twice a day. And when Monarch had them in, people were silly to try and order them from anyone else. Of course Neweggs was high. But, preorders were out-of-order. This is history for you.

History for me huh. One of the current businesses i run is made up of doing online resale of mostly products that are in high demand or that can be bought for wholesale and so i watch how the market moves with pricing when i purchase something. I have a number of E6600 processors on pre-order now for example.

Smaller e-tailers have lower prices then vendors like Newegg all the time. The reason people buy from Newegg so much is because of their reputation, customer service, and the fact that Newegg carries a larger inventory then most. Taking pre-orders is a nightmare because people are constantly calling wondering when their order is going to ship and when they will be getting stock and then when the item does launch that vendor has to fill those pre-orders first before they can put any stock on their storefront. Newegg is well known for price gouging for high demand items so $350-$400 is to be expected for an E6600 at launch.

The OEMs have never sucked up all the high-end. The only time there has ever been a concern was with low-end parts.

Yeah thats why there were spells when the FX processors from AMD were out of stock even though they were priced outrageously high. Dell will be using the X6700/X6800 in their high-end XPS systems and the other OEM's and custom PC builders worldwide will be doing the same.

Again, you have no idea what you're talking about because you presume the "end user market"=enthusiast. That is not the definition of the end user. The end user buys from all market segments. They comprise joe six-pack, the geek squads, the [H]ardforumers, etc. They are everyone who buys a computer for their own needs. Nope, we're talking about Vendors and Retailers, also known as the Retail Channel, or just The Channel. Ok? This market or if you will, segment of the total cpu market, comprises enthusiasts and then some, and then some more.

I think you need to look up a definition for what an enthusiast really is. An enthusiast is NOTHING more then an end user who's hobby is computer hardware. An enthusiast is an educated end user that is "enthusiastic" about the computer hardware. He is nothing more and nothing less. He buys from the same end user channel. Vendors ARE retailers. The retail channel is where we end users purchase our hardware if we dont purchase through the OEM channel. I'm not exactly sure what you're even trying to point out here anyways because i never said there was a separate market for end users and enthusiasts lol.

Check your facts, the most current chart which you are going by has Conroe Q3 penetration equal to Preslers and Smithfields in Q1 despite coming much later in the quarter. I happen to think the chart is inaccurate, that Conroes will comprise less than 12% of desktop shipments during Q3, less than Dailytech's estimates. But, hey they're just human. Suffice to say, the only factual claim you're willing to lean on just proves you wrong.

You really need to stop and realize something. If Conroes comprise less than 12% of desktop processor shipments at the END of Q3 then just exactly how many Conroes do you think the retail channels are going to have after the OEM's are allocated several million? Conroe will likely be spread thin worldwide for the first month or two at least.

They really need to start influencing the teaching of how to interpret a simple bar graph in high school math classes nowadays.

 

[Jason711]

ok, too much reading.

 

[mavalpha]

What's the difference between E6300 and E6300 BTX? A heatsink? Is that worth $10?

 

[burningrave101]

While Intel's Core 2 Duo and Core 2 Extreme processors will be released at the beginning of Q3 of this year it will take some time for all of Intel's shipments to be Conroe based. The scary statistic is that by the end of this year, only 25% of Intel's Performance Mainstream desktop processor shipments will be based on Conroe. The remaining 75% will still be NetBurst based, meaning they will be Pentium 4, Pentium D and Pentium Extreme Edition.

Given how competitive Core 2 Extreme is with the Athlon 64 FX-62, you would expect no one to want to purchase a NetBurst based processor if they can get a Core 2 Duo or Core 2 Extreme for a competitive price. Intel does have a plan to deal with the over availability of undesirable Pentium Ds and limited supply of Conroes; Intel would do what anyone would do if you're trying to move a lot of undesirable product: cut the price.

Despite the lower pricing on the Pentium Ds, it's not like Conroe ends up being all that expensive. The entry level E6300 and E6400 chips are both priced at $183 and $224, respectively, which is far from high. As attractive as the Pentium D's pricing may be, Conroe's performance and lower power consumption may still end up driving more demand than there is supply.

For the Dells of the world, Conroe availability shouldn't be too much of an issue because companies like Dell get first dibs. For years of not going with AMD, all while demanding something more competitive from Intel, you better believe that Dell is going to soak up every last Conroe that it can.

The problem then becomes what happens after Dell and HP have eaten their lunch, unfortunately the concern is that aggressive pricing won't be enough to reduce retail demand for Conroe. What we're worried about happening is a very small supply of Conroes on the retail market in late Q3/early Q4, resulting in much higher street prices than what you see in the table above. In the worst case scenario for Intel, Conroe's limited retail availability could result in a price to performance ratio equal to or worse than AMD's Athlon 64 X2.

The benchmarks we've seen show Conroe as a very strong competitor to the Athlon 64 X2, availability could be what limits how much lost ground Intel can regain before AMD has a chance to respond with K8L.

http://www.anandtech.com/cpuchipsets/showdoc.aspx?i=2771&p=6

What was said right there in that article is whats being said all across the market. The motherboard manufacturers themselves have been quoted as questioning Conroe availability at launch. Then you can stop and look at the availability dates the major Intel distributors have which is mostly slated for August/September. There is a lot more information to point to the fact that Conroe availability will be somewhat limited then there is any that points to the idea that Conroe will be in high production and meet the swelling demand.

 

[CEpeep]

tl;dr

 

[Bao01]

The enthusiast community is not the retail market lol?

No. The enthusiast community is not the retail market. Who told you it was? If you are this uninformed, why should anyone respond to you or your FUD? I shouldn't have to explain this. The retail market sells to everyone who wants to buy retail, not just enthusiasts.

You need to learn how to read a chart. Going off that older chart you just linked to at the end of end of the third quarter Conroe is projected to be at only 10% of production, Pendium D at almost 50% and Pentium 4 at over 40%. And you do realize that the end of the third quarter is still quite a ways away right? That means only a few million of Conroe processors will ship the entire third quarter and the OEM's alone will demand several million which will quickly soak up stock. Then the rest will be distributed to vendors and stores worldwide.

The older chart is only accurate for the %shipments from Q1 because the newer chart doesn't have them. From Q2, all estimates from the later chart are...nvm...you can't be that dumb...they are more current. So, there's nothing to emphazize after Q1 from the earlier chart except to show that it was off.

History for me huh. One of the current businesses i run is made up of doing online resale of mostly products that are in high demand or that can be bought for wholesale and so i watch how the market moves with pricing when i purchase something. I have a number of E6600 processors on pre-order now for example.

That's interesting, your "business" is to take advantage of gullible flea-bayers. You should sell your FUD on a fleabay forum, not here. You have a very misguided agenda.

I think you need to look up a definition for what an enthusiast really is. An enthusiast is NOTHING more then an end user who's hobby is computer hardware. An enthusiast is an educated end user that is "enthusiastic" about the computer hardware. He is nothing more and nothing less. He buys from the same end user channel. Vendors ARE retailers. The retail channel is where we end users purchase our hardware if we dont purchase through the OEM channel. I'm not exactly sure what you're even trying to point out here anyways because i never said there was a separate market for end users and enthusiasts lol.

Dodge all you want. You're using a strawman argument because you can't respond directly to me. So, you pretend as if I'm arguing for something that I am not. But let's be clear, it was you that posted this:

from post #26:

I dont see any reason at all for Intel to be worried about the end user market which once again makes up a tiny fraction of the overall picture

and this:

The end user market is just an extra bit of coin in their pocket.

Understand, young umemployed fleabayer, the end user market is basically the entire desktop market. Learn to use a dictionary.

From dictionary.com:

2 entries found for end user.
end user also end-us·er (ndyzr)
n.
The ultimate consumer of a product, especially the one for whom the product has been designed

end user

n : the ultimate user for which something is intended

That's what it means. So how does the end user make up a "tiny fraction" according to you if it is the market for which all desktop CPUs are intended?

You really need to stop and realize something. If Conroes comprise less than 12% of desktop processor shipments at the END of Q3 then just exactly how many Conroes do you think the retail channels are going to have after the OEM's are allocated several million? Conroe will likely be spread thin worldwide for the first month or two at least

Oh really? So, how many of those millions exactly have been ordered and must be shipped to OEMs? Do you have a link to back this up? Or are you just making up FUD to justify scalping a few chips on fleabay?

In the end, you have nothing but FUD because you have a self-serving agenda that comes at the expense of others.

 

[Bao01]

http://www.anandtech.com/cpuchipsets/showdoc.aspx?i=2771&p=6

What was said right there in that article is whats being said all across the market. The motherboard manufacturers themselves have been quoted as questioning Conroe availability at launch. Then you can stop and look at the availability dates the major Intel distributors have which is mostly slated for August/September. There is a lot more information to point to the fact that Conroe availability will be somewhat limited then there is any that points to the idea that Conroe will be in high production and meet the swelling demand.

Anand's just posting some of his exciting speculation. I've already pointed this out. And the fact is, I've been following most of this stuff from day one. What do you hope to accomplish by posting a vague opinion and a rhetorical question from "Wunderkind" Lal Shimpi? You can parrot that stuff all day long and get a good laugh out of folks like me.

Now you can parrot opinions all you want, but sources in the retail channel have stated that Intel assures them they will meet demand in that segment of the total desktop processor market. You will repeat every opinion from people who don't actually make processors but you won't believe the people who make them. And you presume to know their market and make money selling their processors. You are spreading some very silly FUD.

 

[Brahmzy]

It's getting kinda hot up in hur.

 

[Nitebane]

allrighty then..

 

[burningrave101]

No. The enthusiast community is not the retail market. Who told you it was? If you are this uninformed, why should anyone respond to you or your FUD? I shouldn't have to explain this. The retail market sells to everyone who wants to buy retail, not just enthusiasts.

I never said the retail market was just the enthusiast community. Not even once. You jumped off on this out of nowhere lol. I refered to the enthusiast market a lot because thats what we here at hardforum are but i never said that was the entire retail market.

That's interesting, your "business" is to take advantage of gullible flea-bayers. You should sell your FUD on a fleabay forum, not here. You have a very misguided agenda.

And what ever gave you the impression that i'm just some loley fleabayer like yourself? eBay is nothing more than a hobby to me. A hobby in which i do make a decent share of coin. I'm also an IT specialist with a business that i own as well as i help head up a marketing team in my area. And i'm only 22.

Dodge all you want. You're using a strawman argument because you can't respond directly to me. So, you pretend as if I'm arguing for something that I am not. But let's be clear, it was you that posted this:

That's what it means. So how does the end user make up a "tiny fraction" according to you if it is the market for which all desktop CPUs are intended?

You're trying to make an argument out of nothing just because you have nothing else to support any of your ideas other then an opinion. Its obvious that by end users i mean the retail channel outside of the OEM market. You can try and twist my wording around all you want but its a pointless argument. I base my opinion off what the rest of the market is saying and what hundreds of other users are saying on other forums. Try talking to someone that actually MIGHT have some experience in this market and know a little bit about what they're talking about. I dont think your going to find anyone thats going to preach about high availability of Conroe at launch.

Oh really? So, how many of those millions exactly have been ordered and must be shipped to OEMs? Do you have a link to back this up? Or are you just making up FUD to justify scalping a few chips on fleabay?

Well since the number i've seen flying around by a few people has been stated as 160 million processors shipped by the end of the year total and 12% is only 19.2 million you can figure that only a small fraction of that is going to hit retail channels. And once again thats the end of the year. Thats not at launch a few weeks from now. OEM's will soak up every processor they can get ahold of at launch since there wont be that many in comparison to the number they will be shipping since we are nearing the Back to School crowd.

In the end, you have nothing but FUD because you have a self-serving agenda that comes at the expense of others.

Your FUD is beyond any FUD i could even take the time to dream up because you can't even understand a simple bar graph, you dont understand how many millions will have to be shipped to OEM's, and you dont have even the slightest grasp on how distribution of Conroe based processors will take place in retail channels.

Once again, link me to any current information that gives you the impression that Conroe availability will be high at launch for "end users". You havn't done so to this point and you wont now because you dont have any information. All you do is refuse to believe anything said by all these other sites and people on other forums as if you know something yourself which you seriously do not.

The release of Conroe can go ither way but all the facts and supporting data points to my opinion that availability will be limited for the first several weeks. Most will agree with that. None of the data i see supports the idea that availability will meet demand so i encourage you to try and turn some up since you are so convinced you know more about this then i do.

And exactly what would my self-serving agenda be BTW? If i had an agenda it would be to support your opinion that availability will be high and then there would be less pre-orders. I gain nothing by encouraging others to pre-order now because that just means they will have the same item i believe will be in limited quantities with a higher price tag at launch. Your personal theories make no sense. Your just swept away by the PR bull handed out by Intel.

Intel may ship a ton of Conroe processors to retail channels and they may not. But the numbers they've released dont add up to enough Conroe processors to make the retail value be set at MSRP. To make that happen availability would have to meet the demand. Its just not likely to happen.

 

[burningrave101]

Anand's just posting some of his exciting speculation. I've already pointed this out. And the fact is, I've been following most of this stuff from day one. What do you hope to accomplish by posting a vague opinion and a rhetorical question from "Wunderkind" Lal Shimpi? You can parrot that stuff all day long and get a good laugh out of folks like me.

And what are you posting? Nothing more then a speculative opinion based on far less facts then i have presented. Your entire arguement is based around what an Intel PR has said. Are you seriously silly enough to believe they would ever admit to a shortage? It would cause their shares to plummit lol. Intel, AMD, nVidia, ATI, and on and on all make promises to do this and to do that but a lot of the time they dont. It would be nice if Intel can meet the demand at launch but if the numbers are correct its not that probable because there will be too many processors shipped to OEM's and the rest will be spread out worldwide to retail sources.

Did you look at the distributor pricing that was posted by Nitebane? The E6600 was priced at $330.83. Thats direct distributor pricing, not retail channel pricing.

This was posted over at Xtreme Systems by a guy from Tank Guys.

I'll tell you guys what I know.

I have hundreds of these on order, from every single one of the major Intel distributors. ETA's from them range from today (ha) to September 18th. If I've learned one thing over the years, it's that those ETA's are pretty useless.

Honestly, I'll be surprised if anyone starts shipping these by the 14th. It's certainly possible, and I'd love it - but it'd be surprising. None of the distributors even have any yet, and keep in mind, these have to filter through many levels of the supply chain before they start shipping to you consumers.

If you have people at BLT (or anywhere else) saying anything before July 27th, I'd take it with a grain of salt. Not to say they are trying to con or decieve - they may well get them early. I'm just saying I wouldn't bet on it. They may be giving out this information based on erroneous data from thier suppliers.

To be clear, the ETA's from BLT are the inventory information from Ingram Micro, one of the big distributors. This is the information showing when the processors are SUPPOSED to arrive at IM's warehouse - NOT when BLT will have them. I can also tell you from experience that IM's ETA's are quite inaccurate. To further complicate matters, I've got the first 60 or so of thier 6600's going to us.

We've been taking pre-orders for about 5 days now, and we are not promising any specific date, just for this reason. I'm assuming I'll have them by the original July 27th date, but it remains to be seen. I'd say it's good to assuming the original launch date, and not get too excited if people claim to have them before then .

Its very likely these processors will launch here in the next 1-3 weeks but they wont actually be readily available at vendors until towards the middle or end of August and on into September.

 

[Bao01]

I'm not responding to anymore of your garbage.

This post will be final clarification for anyone who is interested.

Price of Woodcrest 5140 from Ewiz. Ewiz doesn't take preorders: $ 432.60.

Lowest price on froogle.com - all preorders from Yesmicro.com, no shipping date: $497.53, or same part as Ewiz from Computer Brain, preorder also - $489.59

Price for Woodcrest 5150 from Ewiz. Ewiz doesn't take preorders: $ 669.50

Lowest price on froogle.com for the same part OEM processor - again preorders BLT, the guys you ordered from with ship dates in August: $721.47

That's a 50 bucks less.

Of course, if I was a fleabayer, I would stock up on these from Ewiz. But, I'm not. So, here's a good opportunity for you to make a killing on fleabay or for anyone else interested in a Conroe in a different package (Woodcrest). It's been two weeks from launch. Of course, Newegg doesn't have them. But, someone always does.

I'm off to do something that's none of your business.

Now, go away.

 

[burningrave101]

So now the logic behind Conroe availability can be traced to the availability of Woodcrest which is a server processor on a different socket? Somehow i just dont see the demand being quite as high for Woodcrest for most end users as Conroe will be .

But like you said, the prices listed at eWiz are for OEM while the other pre-orders are for retail boxed. Retail is almost always more expensive. I believe the MSRP for the Woodcrest 5150 was suppost to be around $690 so thats a pretty good price for an OEM but Woodcrest availability still doesn't reflect what Conroe will be like. It would be nice if Conroe does release at around MSRP at places like eWiz because then i would just cancel my order at BLT if it didn't already ship first but i just dont see it as being all that likely.