Self-Driving Trucks Are Now Delivering Refrigerators

DooKey

DooKey

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Since early October, autonomous trucks built and operated by the startup Embark have been hauling Frigidaire refrigerators 650 miles along the I-10 freeway, from a warehouse in El Paso, Texas, to a distribution center in Palm Springs, California. A human driver rides in the cab to monitor the computer chauffeur for now, but the ultimate goal of this (auto) pilot program is to dump the fleshbag and let the trucks rumble solo down the highway. Using these trucks on wide-open roads like I-10 is a really good idea. Once the technology is proven then we should start seeing the cost of freight go down.

Embark is one of many companies that believe semis, not personal cars, are the smartest use of autonomous technology, or at least the best way to get it onto the road ASAP. Major players like Volvo and Daimler are working on their own robo-truckers. So is Elon Musk’s Tesla. Waymo (the company formerly known as Google’s self-driving car effort) is thinking about putting its tech to use in big rigs.
 
Verge said:
1. Technology is a ways off
2. The government won't allow it
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I agree the tech is still in the future (as well as insurance revisions, legislation on who would be liable in an accident, etc), but I think the government will be OK with allowing it to happen. The government will just figure out a way of taxing the AI as if it was a 'real' person it's replacing. So, for instance, if a trucker normally made $22 / hour and had $3 / hour in benefits, then the government could tax that AI at say 50 cents / mile and get the cash needed for replacement salary, retraining or whatever is needed for the displaced trucker. I do agree with you though, that the government will never allow it if it's just a boon to someone's bottom line and all those displaced truckers then end up on the SS / Medicaid roles -- that we have to pay for.
 
How does the AI handle mechanical failures? Say the engine overheats or it blows a tire, does it notify someone monitoring it?
 
the-one1 said:
Cost of freight will go down, but the cost doesn't get passed onto to the consumer. I've yet to see any cost saving venture at any company get passed onto the consumer
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So you have never been to a wal-mart, or shopped on amazon?

The real issue is the savings won't be significant unless you are buying something large and bulky. Lets say you are paying someone above average fro being an experienced driver, and it is $0.45 per mile, and a 3000 mile freight trip. That's $1,350 in pay. If that truck ahs a thousands packages in it, you saved a buck and change. For a 50' trailer, that'd be a decent sized box to only fit 1000.
 
the-one1 said:
Cost of freight will go down, but the cost doesn't get passed onto to the consumer. I've yet to see any cost saving venture at any company get passed onto the consumer
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That doesn't mean the technology is the problem.
 
sfsuphysics said:
3. People with those "easily replaceable by computers" jobs still won't get the message and explore other employment ventures.
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Cause that a simple task for people. A great deal of people don't have the mental capacity to do complicated job or highly technical jobs. That is not just old people. With the way schools only teach kids to pass test instead of any sort of critical think. Future generations will be dumber and dumber.
 
Verge said:
1. Technology is a ways off
2. The government won't allow it
Click to expand...

It's a ways off when thinking in a linear progression paradigm. That is not how computer technology works, it's an exponential progression paradigm. At least unless by "long time" you mean 5 years at most, then you're correrct.

Once enough data is collected and, based off of all autonomous data i've seen it being safer than human drivers, it won't be hard at all to get the government (state&fed) to green light autonomous driving.

https://www.theatlantic.com/technol...ve-300000-lives-per-decade-in-america/407956/
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/how-safe-are-self-driving-cars_us_5908ba48e4b03b105b44bc6b

Edit: Looks like Google (aka Alphabet aka Waymo) is already starting the process of informing the federal side: www.washingtonpost.com/local/trafficandcommuting/waymo-is-first-company-to-deliver-federal-officials-a-detailed-self-driving-safety-report/2017/10/12/1f9a207e-af73-11e7-be94-fabb0f1e9ffb_story.html?utm_term=.a612a8a045fc
 
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Wolf-R1 said:
Yes and when the economy collapses because too many blue collar jobs become automated who will be around to purchase these goods?
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Same reason for erosion of the middle class and stagnant wages starting in the late 70's to now. First it was clothing, then cheap electronics (components, radios, toys), then cars, then home appliances (TV, fridges, washers, etc), then expensive electronics (computers). We were supposed to retrain them too into a service based economy. Unfortunately this is one of the reasons Japan's economy has stagnated since the 90's. Banks became the primary means to make money through loans and credit cards. They took over that position in the 80's from manufacturing.

Restaurant franchises acted as a stop gap band-aide to wealth for a few. But there are too many restaurants to support the system now.

It's not a very pretty future unless you have a lot of brains or unique skills. Its one of the reasons I like to go around and encourage people to take up in STEM fields.
 
sfsuphysics said:
3. People with those "easily replaceable by computers" jobs still won't get the message and explore other employment ventures.
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As Mike Rowe will tell you, not everyone is designed for a 4 year degree. For someone who lacks the motivation or willingness to invest in their own brain, their choices become more and more limited. Especially if they lack the 150+IQ brain power of some of us here.

Do I blame them? No.

But we do also need to emphasize other trade schools more: Pipe fitters, brick layers, plumbers, HVAC, electrical, mechanics, airplane service personnel, steel workers, etc...
 
sfsuphysics said:
3. People with those "easily replaceable by computers" jobs still won't get the message and explore other employment ventures.
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Not everyone can become a physician or engineer. It's easier said than done telling that to a 40+ year old to retrain and then hope to get a job as a newbie in a completely different line of work.
 
For the problem of lost jobs (which will be huge in both the economic ramifications and the number of people who have no job), Universal Basic Income (UBI) seems like the best solution of those that i've heard to this point.
 
travisty said:
It's a ways off when thinking in a linear progression paradigm. That is not how computer technology works, it's an exponential progression paradigm. At least unless by "long time" you mean 5 years at most, then you're correrct.

Once enough data is collected and, based off of all autonomous data i've seen it being safer than human drivers, it won't be hard at all to get the government (state&fed) to green light autonomous driving.

https://www.theatlantic.com/technol...ve-300000-lives-per-decade-in-america/407956/
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/how-safe-are-self-driving-cars_us_5908ba48e4b03b105b44bc6b

Edit: Looks like Google (aka Alphabet aka Waymo) is already starting the process of informing the federal side: www.washingtonpost.com/local/trafficandcommuting/waymo-is-first-company-to-deliver-federal-officials-a-detailed-self-driving-safety-report/2017/10/12/1f9a207e-af73-11e7-be94-fabb0f1e9ffb_story.html?utm_term=.a612a8a045fc
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Well consumer approval will likely happen 10 years before commercial. Do you know how many people an out of control 18 wheeler can kill?(how about one full of liquid oxygen?)

Also, this below is the ONLY instance of an even feasible autonomous car, and even then it will fail if there is emergency construction on a bridge or something and require a driver. Like is aid, the technology isn't there, even assuming exponential developments. -> https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2017/09/25/gm-cadillac-super-cruise/699287001/
 
Verge said:
<current problems with autonomous driving>
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Yes that's current problems. If say, Google, adds tons of construction zones into the AI simulation and the AI drives millions of miles through constructions zones it'll learn quickly how to handle them.

This example may seem too simple but it's quite close in the AI realm


Again we'll see automation starting to take many driving jobs in the next 5 years. It'll be within my lifetime (i'm early thirties) that it'll be outlawed for a human to drive.
 
travisty said:
Yes that's current problems. If say, Google, adds tons of construction zones into the AI simulation and the AI drives millions of miles through constructions zones it'll learn quickly how to handle them.

This example may seem too simple but it's quite close in the AI realm


Again we'll see automation starting to take many driving jobs in the next 5 years. It'll be within my lifetime (i'm early thirties) that it'll be outlawed for a human to drive.
Click to expand...


Playing pong? I don't think you fully understood what i was talking about. But no, AI isn't going to learn how to do this quite so simply as pong...


lol
 
the-one1 said:
Cost of freight will go down, but the cost doesn't get passed onto to the consumer. I've yet to see any cost saving venture at any company get passed onto the consumer
Click to expand...

Cannot agree more, and I used to work in the shipping industry (trucks/rail/air/boat).
The cost savings makes the customers of the shipping lines (as opposed to the end consumer) very happy, though. ;)
 
Verge said:
Playing pong? I don't think you fully understood what i was talking about. But no, AI isn't going to learn how to do this quite so simply as pong...


lol
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1 It's not pong
2 your inability to understand how deep-learning AI works will prevent you from understanding what's going to happen in the near future

Edit: I'll add this here if you'd like to have a glimpse
 
Wolf-R1 said:
Yes and when the economy collapses because too many blue collar jobs become automated who will be around to purchase these goods?
Click to expand...

It is not so much the elimination of jobs as it is shifting the location of the jobs....in this instance truckers. Long hauls are going to be automated, and it will happen quickly when liability and insurance regulations are hammered out. There is a lot of money behind this push, and it will get done. Long haul trailers will go to large truck hubs outside metropolitan/manufacturing centers, and be transferred to local humans to complete the deliveries/distribution. More cargo will be transported by truck as costs go down and there is no artificial limit on driver's hours. Truck stops may suffer though, lot rats as well. Fewer STDs probably.
 
They said the price of cars would drop as robots replaced people. It did not. They also said the price of CPU's would drop as the die shrinks. It did not.
What if a flat tire happens or an engine issue. I know they can monitor the engine and cab systems with software but if a flat tire happens will it veer out of control?
 
travisty said:
1 It's not pong
2 your inability to understand how deep-learning AI works will prevent you from understanding what's going to happen in the near future
Click to expand...

I'm not clicking on anything that has an elon musk thumbnail. I'm guessing you aren't in software lol. Hopes and dreams are nice, but rarely deliver.
 
Sparky said:
They said the price of cars would drop as robots replaced people. It did not. They also said the price of CPU's would drop as the die shrinks. It did not.
What if a flat tire happens or an engine issue. I know they can monitor the engine and cab systems with software but if a flat tire happens will it veer out of control?
Click to expand...


What happens when it snows.. when it's dark and raining... etc... etc... Some of this highlights the need for inch perfect GPS, which is what i alluded to in my earlier linked article.


Don't worry, machine learning will rebuild your tire with laserblasters.
 
Verge said:
I'm not clicking on anything that has an elon musk thumbnail. I'm guessing you aren't in software lol. Hopes and dreams are nice, but rarely deliver.
Click to expand...

LOL I can tell you're quite ignorant...

That's not Elon Musk. That's Ray Kurzweil.

I am indeed a software engineer and know what i'm talking about :)


You can ignore the future as much as you want Verge. It will not prevent the future from coming. It's up to you whether you want to be in some way prepared or flail helplessly as you drown.
 
Stuff like this just furthers my drive to get the hell out of society and off the grid. The world is hell bent on getting rid of the ability for people to actually earn a living, and there are plenty of morons cheering this as "progress", including on this board. UBI is a stupid idea, something freely given has no value, and there's a pride in doing a job no matter how menial. Take that pride and value away and you end up with dole scum.

I want off this fucking planet as quickly as I can.
 
punisher said:
It is not so much the elimination of jobs as it is shifting the location of the jobs....in this instance truckers. Long hauls are going to be automated, and it will happen quickly when liability and insurance regulations are hammered out. There is a lot of money behind this push, and it will get done. Long haul trailers will go to large truck hubs outside metropolitan/manufacturing centers, and be transferred to local humans to complete the deliveries/distribution. More cargo will be transported by truck as costs go down and there is no artificial limit on driver's hours. Truck stops may suffer though, lot rats as well. Fewer STDs probably.
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I don't totally agree. Yes jobs will shift some but overall there will be a huge loss of jobs across the board. In this case the primary loss is the drivers. This will include service drivers such as cab/Uber/Lift kinds of drivers. Yes some of them will move off into other sectors but the numbers won't be supported. Furthermore the secondary support economy for these industries will take a hit as you mentioned. Many of them will shrink during economic conformity and may disappear completely. Where will those employees go? They may look to the same transitions that the drivers are going to. Now we have even more competition for the few employment resources. There are always a finite number of places to go.

I do agree that there will need to be some sort of operator in the vehicle as these self driving systems won't be able to self maintain or fuel. However I see a long term reduction in pay as vehicles become more and more capable of self navigation. Employers will see the ability to drive a vehicle as unnecessary and won't pay for that skill.
 
davethehedgehog said:
Stuff like this just furthers my drive to get the hell out of society and off the grid. The world is hell bent on getting rid of the ability for people to actually earn a living, and there are plenty of morons cheering this as "progress", including on this board. UBI is a stupid idea, something freely given has no value, and there's a pride in doing a job no matter how menial. Take that pride and value away and you end up with dole scum.

I want off this fucking planet as quickly as I can.
Click to expand...

This is a very old way of thought. What UBI allows is each person to do what they want. Studies with UBI have shown higher productivity and entrepreneurship. UBI is earned by being a part of society. Even NEETs are members of society even if more limited than others.

A study found a UBI in the US of $1,000 for each person would grow the economy by 12.5%
(Warning Auto-play video on the page :rolleyes:) http://fortune.com/2017/09/03/universal-basic-income-economy-study/



 
Travisty beat me to it above. UBI is the only answer to the problems automation and AI is already causing. We can either move to it and keep companies afloat with customers buying what they need, or we can have tens of millions of homeless people in the streets... which I'm sure most definitely won't start causing riots or lead to a modern French revolution... /s

Furthermore, a little bit further in the future, I can see businesses becoming cooperatively owned and moving away from a for-profit system as everything is made by machines, and CEO's are absolutely more redundant than they already are. Basically, Trotskys predictions are coming true. Capitalism is destroying itself with Late Stage Capitalism, and that Capitalism was needed to advance to the point where technologically real communism (which has never been implemented anywhere) can work and provide for all(Think Star Trek). Stalin of course didn't like this thinking, or his peaceful democratic mindset, and had him murdered with an icepick and took over the USSR... the rest is history.
 
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DigitalGriffin said:
As Mike Rowe will tell you, not everyone is designed for a 4 year degree. For someone who lacks the motivation or willingness to invest in their own brain, their choices become more and more limited. Especially if they lack the 150+IQ brain power of some of us here.

Do I blame them? No.

But we do also need to emphasize other trade schools more: Pipe fitters, brick layers, plumbers, HVAC, electrical, mechanics, airplane service personnel, steel workers, etc...
Click to expand...
You kind of missed my point, then make it for me. I never said you need to "get a degree", I just said find a job that isn't easily replaceable by a computer (or H1B). And as you mention, lots of skilled positions that don't require degrees are out there, you just have to see the trees through the forest. Maybe start an apprentice program now while still doing you're current job just to get hours in. Then WHEN your job of driving back and forth gets computer-sourced you have something to fall back on instead of what they probably will do is, bitch, moan, ask for union help, and then vandalize computer driven trucks.
 
sfsuphysics said:
You kind of missed my point, then make it for me. I never said you need to "get a degree", I just said find a job that isn't easily replaceable by a computer (or H1B). And as you mention, lots of skilled positions that don't require degrees are out there, you just have to see the trees through the forest. Maybe start an apprentice program now while still doing you're current job just to get hours in. Then WHEN your job of driving back and forth gets computer-sourced you have something to fall back on instead of what they probably will do is, bitch, moan, ask for union help, and then vandalize computer driven trucks.
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That 150+ IQ comment wasn't aimed at anyone in particular.

I don't think drivers want to be out of work. I just think they don't what else they could be good at.
 
Maybe it's just me, but wouldn't it be cheaper in the long run to build the warehouse next to the distribution center. Unless it's already built next to some other distribution center or the factory.
 
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sfsuphysics said:
You kind of missed my point, then make it for me. I never said you need to "get a degree", I just said find a job that isn't easily replaceable by a computer (or H1B). And as you mention, lots of skilled positions that don't require degrees are out there, you just have to see the trees through the forest. Maybe start an apprentice program now while still doing you're current job just to get hours in. Then WHEN your job of driving back and forth gets computer-sourced you have something to fall back on instead of what they probably will do is, bitch, moan, ask for union help, and then vandalize computer driven trucks.
Click to expand...

That's possible for short haul drivers, but long haul drivers probably can't find the time, since they're always on the road. They could try for online classes I guess and just use a computer in their cab. Hopefully they have connection when they park for their down time.
 
davethehedgehog said:
Stuff like this just furthers my drive to get the hell out of society and off the grid. The world is hell bent on getting rid of the ability for people to actually earn a living, and there are plenty of morons cheering this as "progress", including on this board. UBI is a stupid idea, something freely given has no value, and there's a pride in doing a job no matter how menial. Take that pride and value away and you end up with dole scum.

I want off this fucking planet as quickly as I can.
Click to expand...

While we're at it, why not reinstate the horse and buggy for long-haul distribution? Give the construction worker a shovel instead of heavy machinery too. You'll make a lot of jobs very quickly.
The point of "progress" is efficiency. Real economic value is added by doing more work with less resources (human capital in this case).

No one wants to see jobs eliminated, but the solution isn't to force more people to work obsoleted jobs. The solution is to find a way to use the technology we're developing to benefit more people.
 
serbiaNem said:
While we're at it, why not reinstate the horse and buggy for long-haul distribution? Give the construction worker a shovel instead of heavy machinery too. You'll make a lot of jobs very quickly.
The point of "progress" is efficiency. Real economic value is added by doing more work with less resources (human capital in this case).

No one wants to see jobs eliminated, but the solution isn't to force more people to work obsoleted jobs. The solution is to find a way to use the technology we're developing to benefit more people.
Click to expand...


I think autonomous driving is a bit different from creating more efficient machines. The back-hoe took 50-men with shovels on one job and put them on 50 jobs.
The diesel engine moved the buggy makers to the machine shops. In just about every case, automation and progress allowed the same number people to do more.

Autonomous shipping has no such benefit. It's simply 1:1 replacement for the drivers. The only beneficiaries are the shipping companies who won't have to pay a driver $0.50 per mile and wait a day for that truck to be available again because of mandatory rest time.
 
Verge said:
1. Technology is a ways off
2. The government won't allow it
Click to expand...


The tech has been here for years. Fine tuning every bit of detail to avoid loss of property\life is the tedious task.
I'm sure once there's a system in place to tax the shit out of everyone that's not using the autonomous transportation the government will be on board. Once electric\hybrid cars are the only thing you can buy, the cost to pass inspections for your older personal car in the future will probably be insane leaving only the rich people being able to afford to drive around in gas powered automobiles.
 
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