Rumor: Nvidia allegedly halting RTX 3000 production this October to keep prices as high as possible until 1H22

N4CR

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TSMC said they thought there was evidence of this occurring, someone (cough nvidia or darling thugs Intel) buying excess wafer capacity to shut out competitors.

So that could give this news some credibility...


Of course nvintel wouldn't do this..
 

pfc_m_drake

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I have no comment on the veracity of the claim that Nvidia is halting production, but there is one comment that I absolutely believe and that I have been predicting for months

refreshed or next gen GPUs with similar pricing schemes, making these inflated prices the new norm

You better believe that part is true.
Correct. The one thing the pandemic taught Corporate Accountants everywhere: People are willing to pay *significantly* more for the same (or in most cases, less) product.
The good old days are *now*. It only gets worse from here.
 

pfc_m_drake

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Why is everyone acting like this is illegal somehow. There is no rule stating you MUST sell product. Or even produce it. I mean last I checked no one was suing the likes of Ferrari for producing limited runs... and come on you nerds how many of you own some collectable figure or boxset ect that has a very exclusive 101 of 1000 stamped on the bottom. lol
While you do not have to sell product (necessarily) as a Publicly Traded company, you do have a fiduciary responsibility to your shareholders to act in their best interests. There's room for discussion on how to go about doing that, of course - but there's a distinct difference between a Boutique Automotive Manufacturer and a company that produces mainly commodity products.
 

tangoseal

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As a gamer, I am outraged. Outraged i tell you.

As an investor in both AMD and NVIDIA, this is what I like to hear.
And its also highly illegal to create an artificial shortage in order to manipulate markets.

The Sec and exc commission can file charges for such defrauding of the market. There is much case law to be read out there concerning this. Surely nVidia isnt this stupid. But our govt is totally corrupt so go right ahead nV, no one will stop you.
 

MrCaffeineX

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How would shorting supply help NVIDIA in this situation? Wouldn't the prices AIBs pay for the chips be locked in via contract?

I'm inclined to agree that this is just a standard wind-down to transition focus to the production of chips for other SKUs. It just happens to be coming at a time when the entire world (not literally) is clamoring for increased supply due to overwhelming demand.

I miss the old days when you could score great deals on the tail-end of a hardware generation as the new stuff started rolling out.
 

SeymourGore

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Has Old Bennett posted anything related to this topic? I wonder if he could use his contacts to add fuel or kill this rumor.
 

NobleX13

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The rumor comes from MLID, who is FAR from anything remotely close to a credible source. Doing this would serve Nvidia no purpose. Nvidia is NOT making more money from the high prices of GPUs, FE cards they sell to retail remain at MSRP and there’s nothing credible out there showing that they’re charging AIBs more for chips. Unless Nvidia is planning to EOL all the cards and launch a new generation soon, this rumor smells like utter bullshit to drive clicks.
I dunno, I kind of think that this is all part of NVIDIA's ploy to ratchet up prices for the next gen.
 

Derangel

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I dunno, I kind of think that this is all part of NVIDIA's ploy to ratchet up prices for the next gen.

Why would Nvidia need to artificially limit supply when the entire last year has seen GPUs at stupid prices? Also, Nvidia essentially owns the dedicated GPU market, they can do whatever they want with prices next gen and we’re basically fucked unless AMD and Intel can step up. Nvidia quite literally doesn’t need to do a thing.
 
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Why would Nvidia need to artificially limit supply when the entire last year has seen GPUs at stupid prices? Also, Nvidia essentially owns the dedicated GPU market, they can do whatever they want with prices next gen and we’re basically fucked unless AMD and Intel can step up. Nvidia quite literally doesn’t need to do a thing.
Agree, why limit supply on an already constrained supply situation? They only would hurt themselves and their partners.
 

GoodBoy

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Nvidia allegedly halting RTX 3000 production this October to keep prices as high as possible until 1H22

A friend sent me this link and I didn't find it here by searching. Could be complete rumor, but given nVidia's reputation, who knows.
People falling for MLID bullshit again? Why are you posting this crap here?

If nvidia did as the rumor purports, the only winner would be AMD who might manage to sell some of those overpriced 6900's. How fucking stupid do you have to be to start a rumor like this without thinking of all of the possibilities...

Grain of truth: 3000 gaming GPU's are going to slow production so that more focus on Datacenter/AI parts can be produced. There is demand in all sectors. Production isn't slowing. A couple of months, Datacenter/Workstation market will be satisfied, back to making gaming cards, and probably the "Super" and "Ti" variants exclusively. So it is likely 100% true that 3080 production is going to go down and stay down, while 3080 Super and 3080Ti production ramps up.
 

Lakados

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So according to NVidia’s investor reports they wanted to launch Ampere Next 2 years after Ampere, that would mean a launch for the second half of May. They would need a 3-4 Month ramp up on the new silicon to facilitate a product launch. So that would have them shifting from Samsung to TSMC in Jan.
 

noko

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Topic:

Nvidia allegedly halting RTX 3000 production this October to keep prices as high as possible until 1H22​

I would say most companies will try to keep prices as high as possible to maximize profits, satisfy share holders if they have them but also customers satisfaction so they get future sells as well, maintain but preferably grow market share. You can't do any of that if you are not making products to sell. AMD shifted production of low end GPUs to high end gaming, HPC and the new consoles and virtually left the low end market. That was not solely to drive up prices as far as I can see, just getting a better profit margin matching the industry which AMD was poor previously on. Never saw any headlines dealing with AMD for this who raised prices more so than Nvidia generation to generation. Anyways the drift of his video I just don't buy, still maybe somewhat true or totally false. Just not enough info, facts, data other than some random unknowns whispering in someone ears.
 

LukeTbk

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AMD shifted production of low end GPUs to high end gaming, HPC and the new consoles and virtually left the low end market.
Well low end market has yet to exist in new offer arguably, but I think all around source seem (https://tekdeeps.com/the-radeon-rx-6600-xt-broke-the-weekly-mindfactory-sales-record-in-4-days/, https://www.techspot.com/news/90801-pricing-availability-update-radeon-rx-6600-xt-how.html, https://store.steampowered.com/hwsurvey/videocard/) to point out that 6600 and 6700 got much more volume that the previous AMD model.

6600xt: 237 nm, 11 millions transistor
6700xt: 335nm, 17,200 millions transitor
6800-6800xt: 520nm

I would expect the first 2 to have much larger volume, I am sure they push everything that pass the higher end for the higher product (say the same 520nm chips, all of them that can be a 6900 will be has long has they sell everything)

For example:
https://www.tomshardware.com/news/gpu-pricing-index
Ampere and RDNA2 GPUs: eBay Pricing
Graphics CardAvg eBay PriceQTY SoldGross Sales
GeForce RTX 3090$2,750647$1,779,030
GeForce RTX 3080 Ti$1,817675$1,226,313
GeForce RTX 3080$1,672888$1,484,470
GeForce RTX 3070 Ti$1,174470$551,836
GeForce RTX 3070$1,213955$1,158,530
GeForce RTX 3060 Ti$9301643$1,527,694
GeForce RTX 3060 12GB$6991581$1,104,566
Radeon RX 6900 XT$1,526109$166,326
Radeon RX 6800 XT$1,328149$197,941
Radeon RX 6800$1,31461$80,181
Radeon RX 6700 XT$869420$364,791
Radeon RX 6600 XT$584727$424,350

2 week of tracking ebay, show almost 4 more time smaller GPU than the large model, has expected.
 

cjcox

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I'm not totally convinced that Nvidia is the only tech company that can produce in quantity today. Maybe they're stuck like everyone else?
 

Lakados

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I'm not totally convinced that Nvidia is the only tech company that can produce in quantity today. Maybe they're stuck like everyone else?
Well TSMC is at capacity, Samsung is as well but NVidia’s product stack is vastly different. Say AMD and NVidia were to get 120k wafers in a year. NVidia could easily dedicate 110k of those to GPU’s. AMD on the other hand may only get 30k for GPU’s, 40K for consoles, and the remaining 50k for producing CPU’s.

How many wafers AMD gets from TSMC is more or less a known quantity but I don’t know how many NVidia is getting from Samsung.
 

cjcox

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Well TSMC is at capacity, Samsung is as well but NVidia’s product stack is vastly different. Say AMD and NVidia were to get 120k wafers in a year. NVidia could easily dedicate 110k of those to GPU’s. AMD on the other hand may only get 30k for GPU’s, 40K for consoles, and the remaining 50k for producing CPU’s.

How many wafers AMD gets from TSMC is more or less a known quantity but I don’t know how many NVidia is getting from Samsung.
Not sure if Nvidia makes every component that goes into the end deliverable GPU card though.
 

ChadD

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While you do not have to sell product (necessarily) as a Publicly Traded company, you do have a fiduciary responsibility to your shareholders to act in their best interests. There's room for discussion on how to go about doing that, of course - but there's a distinct difference between a Boutique Automotive Manufacturer and a company that produces mainly commodity products.
Well then they are well protected in the canon or capitalists morality. Squeezing supply to up profit margins will make investors quite happy.... as profit margin is much more important for a tech stock then large grosses. :)
 

noko

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Well low end market has yet to exist in new offer arguably, but I think all around source seem (https://tekdeeps.com/the-radeon-rx-6600-xt-broke-the-weekly-mindfactory-sales-record-in-4-days/, https://www.techspot.com/news/90801-pricing-availability-update-radeon-rx-6600-xt-how.html, https://store.steampowered.com/hwsurvey/videocard/) to point out that 6600 and 6700 got much more volume that the previous AMD model.

6600xt: 237 nm, 11 millions transistor
6700xt: 335nm, 17,200 millions transitor
6800-6800xt: 520nm

I would expect the first 2 to have much larger volume, I am sure they push everything that pass the higher end for the higher product (say the same 520nm chips, all of them that can be a 6900 will be has long has they sell everything)

For example:
https://www.tomshardware.com/news/gpu-pricing-index
Ampere and RDNA2 GPUs: eBay Pricing
Graphics CardAvg eBay PriceQTY SoldGross Sales
GeForce RTX 3090$2,750647$1,779,030
GeForce RTX 3080 Ti$1,817675$1,226,313
GeForce RTX 3080$1,672888$1,484,470
GeForce RTX 3070 Ti$1,174470$551,836
GeForce RTX 3070$1,213955$1,158,530
GeForce RTX 3060 Ti$9301643$1,527,694
GeForce RTX 3060 12GB$6991581$1,104,566
Radeon RX 6900 XT$1,526109$166,326
Radeon RX 6800 XT$1,328149$197,941
Radeon RX 6800$1,31461$80,181
Radeon RX 6700 XT$869420$364,791
Radeon RX 6600 XT$584727$424,350

2 week of tracking ebay, show almost 4 more time smaller GPU than the large model, has expected.
If low end is $300+ now. Just because it is named a certain number previously indicating mid to low end does not make it now a low end component. The x600 x500 series were sub $200 and even sub $100 not long ago. 3x the cost? I would not call them now the low end. Just my particular view. AMD has no low end unless APUs is now AMD low end offerings, which might be good with the RNDA2+ APUs coming out.
 

LukeTbk

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If low end is $300+ now.
Well like I said except if you mean there is no new low product at all I am not so sure the distinction with NVidia in that regard or you mean Nvidia at least continued to do the 1650-2060 type ?
 

Lakados

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so basically it is correct but the reasons are not...?
Yep, they’ve moved more Ampere cards already then they planned to produce and the years not up but they did so at the expense of their other lineups and now they have to play last minute catch-up.
 

sleepeeg3

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There's no way this is true. It makes no sense. Graphics cards are selling faster than tickets to your mom. nVidia wants to make demand higher, because demand is not high enough?

If they build it, they will come.
 
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kamikazi

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People falling for MLID bullshit again? Why are you posting this crap here?

If nvidia did as the rumor purports, the only winner would be AMD who might manage to sell some of those overpriced 6900's. How fucking stupid do you have to be to start a rumor like this without thinking of all of the possibilities...

Grain of truth: 3000 gaming GPU's are going to slow production so that more focus on Datacenter/AI parts can be produced. There is demand in all sectors. Production isn't slowing. A couple of months, Datacenter/Workstation market will be satisfied, back to making gaming cards, and probably the "Super" and "Ti" variants exclusively. So it is likely 100% true that 3080 production is going to go down and stay down, while 3080 Super and 3080Ti production ramps up.
Well, I did put rumor in the title and in the body of my post...
 

GoodBoy

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Appreciate that.

The rumor sources that have proven to be rubbish don't qualify as tech news, imho. There's Kyle and his inside sources, then there is MLID bs. Two very different things.
 

ZodaEX

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If low end is $300+ now. Just because it is named a certain number previously indicating mid to low end does not make it now a low end component. The x600 x500 series were sub $200 and even sub $100 not long ago. 3x the cost? I would not call them now the low end. Just my particular view. AMD has no low end unless APUs is now AMD low end offerings, which might be good with the RNDA2+ APUs coming out.

An igpu is in fact considered a low end gpu offering.
 
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Gideon

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Appreciate that.

The rumor sources that have proven to be rubbish don't qualify as tech news, imho. There's Kyle and his inside sources, then there is MLID bs. Two very different things.
Your always welcome to not comment on rumors you don't think are real. Kyle doesn't report anymore so your going to be waiting for a long time for a article. Otherwise a wild rumor gives us all something to speculate on and tech news has been light lately.
 

GoodBoy

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If I don't think it's real, I am going to comment and say exactly that.

A light news day doesn't justify 'fake news'. That's what you get with MLID/AdoredTV.

If you enjoy that type of entertainment, you can always go to those websites/youtube pages. [H] has never been about fake tech entertainment 'news'.
 
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Crosshairs

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nvidia has been pulling jackass moves for years. does this really surprise anyone?
And it's been working for years also ..

nstock.JPG
 

Zarathustra[H]

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Correct. The one thing the pandemic taught Corporate Accountants everywhere: People are willing to pay *significantly* more for the same (or in most cases, less) product.
The good old days are *now*. It only gets worse from here.

While this is true, we also have a new entrant into the GPU market in Intel, and AMD is catching back up on the GPU front.

Once the fab capacity constriction is over, I am hopeful that these elements of competition will help push things back down again.

We have been shown that people are willing to pay more than expected to be able to get a GPU, but they certainly wouldn't if there were a perfectly adequate GPU available at a lower price.

For these new prices to remain the norm you'd need 3-way collusion from AMD, Nvidia and Intel. Not impossible, but also not highly likely as they seek to outdo one and other.
 
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Putz

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i sold my 3080 rig, bought an x17 with a mobile 3080 and pocketed what i made and havent bought any dekstop hardware in over a year now, and i dont feel like i am missing out on anything. so their tactics are saving me money i dont really need to spend

quite frankly they are just going to drive pc gamers to consoles if they keep it up
 

pfc_m_drake

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While this is true, we also have a new entrant into the GPU market in Intel, and AMD is catching back up on the GPU front.

Once the fab capacity construction is over, I am hopeful that these elements of competition will help push things back down again.

We have been shown that people are willing to pay more than expected to be able to get a GPU, but they certainly wouldn't if there were a perfectly adequate GPU available at a lower price.

For these new prices to remain the norm you'd need 3-way collusion from AMD, Nvidia and Intel. Not impossible, but also not highly likely as they seek to outdo one and other.
I certainly hope you're right. I don't enjoy parting with my money. I'm just not very optimistic these days.
But I will keep my fingers crossed and be very pleased to eat crow and tell you that you were correct (should things come to pass that way)!!
 
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