Robots Will Eliminate 6% Of All U.S. Jobs By 2021

[Megalith]

According to this report, customer service representatives and truck or taxi drivers are expected to be some of the first to lose their positions to robots. Unfortunately, that 6% does not appear to include any federal jobs (I’ll take no personality over a rude personality).

“By 2021 a disruptive tidal wave will begin. Solutions powered by AI/cognitive technology will displace jobs, with the biggest impact felt in transportation, logistics, customer service and consumer services,” said Forrester’s Brian Hopkins in the report. The Inevitable Robot Uprising has already started, with at least 45% of US online adults saying they use at least one of the aforementioned digital concierges. Intelligent agents can access calendars, email accounts, browsing history, playlists, purchases and media viewing history to create a detailed view of any given individual.

 

[Bigshrimp]

All of this is to line the pockets of the almighty greedy fat cats at the top.

 

[thesmokingman]

IBskynet

 

[DukenukemX]

6% is pretty good considering all things. I'd be more worried about how many companies will collapse due to new modern technologies. An electric car alone could be catastrophic to jobs, with the collapse of auto mechanics and auto parts. You don't really need gas stations either, just an outlet at parking spots. That's not even including self driving cars.

AI will have the most devastating effect on jobs, as it'll easily replace most desk jobs. They already have AI to write articles and songs, and one that's already taking the place of a lawyer. It's silly to think people are worried about Mc Donald employee's when people making 6 figures have a lot more to worry about. You are a software program away to be replaced, compared to someone who needs a very expensive robot to replace them.

 

[Peter2k]

6% is pretty good considering all things. I'd be more worried about how many companies will collapse due to new modern technologies. An electric car alone could be catastrophic to jobs, with the collapse of auto mechanics and auto parts. You don't really need gas stations either, just an outlet at parking spots. That's not even including self driving cars.

AI will have the most devastating effect on jobs, as it'll easily replace most desk jobs. They already have AI to write articles and songs, and one that's already taking the place of a lawyer. It's silly to think people are worried about Mc Donald employee's when people making 6 figures have a lot more to worry about. You are a software program away to be replaced, compared to someone who needs a very expensive robot to replace them.

Tsk

Remember the movie "I Robot" with Will Smith?
I always wondered how all the normal people are earning money in a future like that

That being said
I'm not really concerned about ai and robots taking all the jobs and everything going under

If the masses are not working anymore then company's end up with no customers
Governments would collapse since no one pays taxes anymore

Ehh
Society either will evolve, or more likely go full blown crazy like in matrix animated where they just bust all robots

 

[Rev Lemmon]

All of this is to line the pockets of the almighty greedy fat cats at the top.

It would only be temporary. Once enough jobs are replaced people wont have any money to buy the products that the fat catt's company is producing.

 

[DrLobotomy]

When the robots are building the robots without asking, then that is the time to worry. Fortunately they only follow the programming the meatsack put into it.

 

[Lifelite]

It would only be temporary. Once enough jobs are replaced people wont have any money to buy the products that the fat catt's company is producing.

This. I'm all for robots eventually taking over everything, it's the only way we can evolve as a society. All the mundane shit no one wants to do (but they have to because food) can be delegated to robots...we could bring in a new Renaissance.

All of that is ideal, but the transition can definitely be painful, the way people don't think for the betterment of mankind, but more for personal gain. See the healthcare industry.

 

[evilsofa]

A schoolchild in the 1970s thinks that in the future, computers will do all their math homework for them so they won't have to do anything in school. Forty years later, you look back at what really happened, shake your head and think "but it just didn't work out that way, it's ever so much more complicated than that!"

Now we have idiots who are afraid that robots will take all of the jobs away from humans. That's not going to happen without some sort of magical cornucopia technology that allows robots to make any amount of anything with zero effort from humans and zero consequences later. Nothing can ever happen that way. The cornucopia we think we have now from the oil and gas industry may seem easy and magical now but it has consequences.

 

[DukenukemX]

That being said
I'm not really concerned about ai and robots taking all the jobs and everything going under

That won't happen for a few decades. But lets say we lose 10%-15% of jobs, then the economy is in deep trouble.

If the masses are not working anymore then company's end up with no customers
Governments would collapse since no one pays taxes anymore

This isn't a chicken or egg thing. If people lack money then either products get cheaper or more than likely the products cater to those with money, aka the rich. You kinda see this already happening as more and more companies are making products that most of us can't afford. Just look at the auto industry as it aims at cars $30-$35k while most Americans can only afford $8k.

 

[Ducman69]

If the masses are not working anymore then company's end up with no customers
Governments would collapse since no one pays taxes anymore

You have to think about land, resources, and energy.

Those with existing wealth will be able to raise sufficient resources to mechanize their workforce to create goods and services, including military power to service all their needs.

With that, they can take and hold land, access to resources, and also produce energy.

At that point, why would the government of those in power need you for? How are you necessary for them to hold land, resources, and energy? For example, what if the country of India fell into the ocean, with 1.2 billion people, would that really matter that much to the United States? Thanks to machines and computers, we really would be just fine, and can continue to hold onto our land, have the resources we need, the energy we need, and would feed ourselves just fine even without those 1.2 billion people, and the same can be said of even more people as machines and computers can replace more jobs.

Right now, you are needed because the masses are also the police force, the soldiers, the people working the land producing food, producing goods and services in factories, and so forth. The economy is based on that, and as a vital component of that economy, you have to contribute to it for it to function. When you are no longer a necessary component of that machine, you have a new mechanized economy that doesn't need you to sell or buy things to keep feeding those in power with the things they need to live comfortably.

 

[umeng2002]

Another B.S analysis trying to drive investment in automation companies.

 

[NeghVar]

Fast food positions is another that should be on that list

 

[Spidey329]

Fast food positions is another that should be on that list

The consumer is also doing more work now. Look at the self checkouts, we bag our own groceries. So as the grocery store cuts labor expenses with technology, they don't necessarily pass that on to the consumer who is having to do the mundane job of a bagger. Win win for the grocery chain.

 

[Ducman69]

The consumer is also doing more work now. Look at the self checkouts, we bag our own groceries. So as the grocery store cuts labor expenses with technology, they don't necessarily pass that on to the consumer who is having to do the mundane job of a bagger. Win win for the grocery chain.

Never sell anything that the customer doesn't value.

And before you say you value someone bagging for you, the question is do you value it enough to pay for it? Clearly the open market has shown that while there are some that do, a lot of people really don't (or even prefer to self-checkout for privacy sake so they don't have to make eye contact with some snarky teenager scanning your jumbo box of hemorrhoid cream), so we have cashiers on some stations, but a lot of people using self-checkout. It also allows stores to remain profitable with a skeleton crew in the night shift, so people can shop 24x7.

If there were a market vacuum with consumers that preferred to shop at locations that offered baggers, then those that skimped wouldn't be able to compete, but I think some of those cost savings are passed on to the consumer, which is becoming ever more cost conscious, especially thanks to the internet.

 

[xX_Jack_Carver_Xx]

We already lost 25% of jobs to 'automation' in the last 40 years. This is Master of the Obvious shit.

 

[i7Baby]

I'm reading Martin Ford's "The Rise of the Robots - Technology and the threat of Mass Unemployment. Very pessimistic. Lots of robotics/automation companies set up to produce product to replace people. Started with ATMs. Large corporations are now buying out robotics companies to get their hands on the technology.

But he points out that this is only part of the reason that the middle class is disappearing. Its not manufacturing that's running the public these days; its service companies eg Finance - that's where the money is.

And I agree with the comments that without customers, these companies are doomed to fail. Whether its by developing a social conscience or by violent overthrow.

 

[DrLobotomy]

As long as the rich get richer then it's all good. Billionaires need more money. They taught you this in school. You swore to uphold it.

 

[nilepez]

A schoolchild in the 1970s thinks that in the future, computers will do all their math homework for them so they won't have to do anything in school. Forty years later, you look back at what really happened, shake your head and think "but it just didn't work out that way, it's ever so much more complicated than that!"

Now we have idiots who are afraid that robots will take all of the jobs away from humans. That's not going to happen without some sort of magical cornucopia technology that allows robots to make any amount of anything with zero effort from humans and zero consequences later. Nothing can ever happen that way. The cornucopia we think we have now from the oil and gas industry may seem easy and magical now but it has consequences.

Robot in this discussion is S/W. Some of the stuff really is robots, but S/W is going to replace a lot of people. As someone else mentioned we already have s/w that can do some legal work (i.e. replaces some lawyers or at the very least law clerks). Accountants will likely be replaced at some point too. Obviously for the foreseeable future, there will be some jobs. You'll need S/W architects and unless we have really advanced robotics, you'll need people to maintain the h/w and s/w (though I can imagine we'll eventually have code that is modular enough that a lot of coding will be automated based on specs created by architects.

It's not hard to imagine most unskilled labor going away. If a Roomba can clean your house today, why not machines that can do most of the cleaning in a school?

At first, people will say, "They need to learn new skills," but eventually, when skilled jobs start disappearing, we're going to have to deal with the problem. My gut says some day we'll get to the point that people will do whatever makes them happy. Fortunately, some of those people will enjoy maintaining these machines

 

[evilsofa]

We already lost 25% of jobs to 'automation' in the last 40 years. This is Master of the Obvious shit.

(source, set dates from 1976 to 2016)

Looks like jobs went up by 100% in the last 40 years. Did you mean something else?

 

[evilsofa]

It's not hard to imagine most unskilled labor going away. If a Roomba can clean your house today, why not machines that can do most of the cleaning in a school?

Welcome to the Poopocalypse:

Roomba hasn't figured out a poop sensor yet. When they do, it won't be the Roomba picking up the poop. It'll be you.

Robotic school cleaning? Have you never entered a school in your life?

 

[i7Baby]

Robots are being made to analyse blood, analyse cars - less technicians, nurses, engineers. Not unskilled workers.

 

[M76]

And good riddance too. I bet noone bitching about loosing those jobs would actually want to do the jobs taken over by automation.

 

[Shintai]

Robots is a good thing. And in the end working time should be reduced as well. Think 30 hour work weeks for example.

There is also a 4th industrial revolution coming. And this time its for the desk jobs.

 

[mullet]

Raise your hands of you work for a poor person?




Ooh nobody okay.

 

[NeoNemesis]

Don's worry guys! All that money will just trickle down to the lower classes.... /s

 

[Shintai]

I dont see why people think robots will make rich people more rich. Without robots, a big amount of the people owning a car today wouldn't be able to afford one. Same goes for everything else. Robots is good to increase productivity and lower prices. Meaning more affordable products. Sure some workers will lose their jobs, a few new created at higher wage brackets as technical staff. But as money clears in one segment, a new arise.

This has been going on for ages. And the world isn't doomed. Rich never became rich due to automation. That's some other factors doing that.

Just as a note, there goes around 12-20 man hours, depending on model, to make a regular car.

 

[Shintai]

The consumer is also doing more work now. Look at the self checkouts, we bag our own groceries. So as the grocery store cuts labor expenses with technology, they don't necessarily pass that on to the consumer who is having to do the mundane job of a bagger. Win win for the grocery chain.

Job as a bagger? I think that type of job went away like 50 years ago in my country. And it was only good it got away. I cant believe someone gets their groceries bagged for them. I would personally tell such a person no thanks for the help. Because I'm not physical unable to do this, read not handicapped.

No poor person in Denmark fears automation or logical changes with good reason.

 

[tetris42]

Job as a bagger? I think that type of job went away like 50 years ago in my country. And it was only good it got away. I cant believe someone gets their groceries bagged for them. I would personally tell such a person no thanks for the help. Because I'm not physical unable to do this, read not handicapped.

No poor person in Denmark fears automation or logical changes with good reason.

Menial jobs disappearing is only a good thing provided there are other jobs to take their place and / or a robust safety net so that the people who had those jobs aren't going hungry are homeless. What's true in Denmark isn't always true in the USA.

 

[Shintai]

Other jobs do get created. Doing things inefficiently as, with all respect is whats going on in the US, means jobs move out of the country. The official unemployment rate is 4.2% currently. In a country where you get 20$ an hour for flipping burgers. But you do have to bag your groceries yourself

 

[evilsofa]

Robots are being made to analyse blood, analyse cars - less technicians, nurses, engineers. Not unskilled workers.

Talk to the next nurse you meet about how little work they will have to do after robots start analyzing blood for them. I dare you.

Sometimes it seems like people in this forum have no idea what people do when they work.

 

[nilepez]

(source, set dates from 1976 to 2016)

Looks like jobs went up by 100% in the last 40 years. Did you mean something else?

Sometimes jack makes shit up, but it's possible that he's talking about manufacturing jobs. There's no doubt that Robots replaced a lot of factory workers over the years and we know that S/W has replaced some legal jobs (to name but a single skilled job).

 

[nilepez]

I dont see why people think robots will make rich people more rich. Without robots, a big amount of the people owning a car today wouldn't be able to afford one. Same goes for everything else. Robots is good to increase productivity and lower prices. Meaning more affordable products. Sure some workers will lose their jobs, a few new created at higher wage brackets as technical staff. But as money clears in one segment, a new arise.

This has been going on for ages. And the world isn't doomed. Rich never became rich due to automation. That's some other factors doing that.

Just as a note, there goes around 12-20 man hours, depending on model, to make a regular car.

If your job making cars went away, you probably didn't find another job that paid as well, so the fact that a car is affordable for most, doesn't really help that worker. In this country, blue collar workers were very much in the middle class up until 30-40 years ago. Many (most?) of those jobs have been automated or exported and in most cases a new job doesn't exist.

Going from 20 bucks an hour (unadjusted for inflation) to Cashier making near minimum wage is a huge problem today and it will only get worse over time. Government/society needs to figure out how they want solve this very real problem. I think we're going to find that there has to be a minimum salary and that may require high taxation on businesses, since so few will be able to work.

Maybe this won't happen, but it's certainly a possible. If handled well, it's not a bad thing.

 

[Shintai]

If your job making cars went away, you probably didn't find another job that paid as well, so the fact that a car is affordable for most, doesn't really help that worker. In this country, blue collar workers were very much in the middle class up until 30-40 years ago. Many (most?) of those jobs have been automated or exported and in most cases a new job doesn't exist.

Going from 20 bucks an hour (unadjusted for inflation) to Cashier making near minimum wage is a huge problem today and it will only get worse over time. Government/society needs to figure out how they want solve this very real problem. I think we're going to find that there has to be a minimum salary and that may require high taxation on businesses, since so few will be able to work.

Maybe this won't happen, but it's certainly a possible. If handled well, it's not a bad thing.

Do you have any factual numbers on these jobs move downwards. And are they globally or just in the US? Just curious.

Other places in the world, automation haven't lead to greater inequality. On the contrary it improves equality. If we ignore the tiger style economies.

Jobs move up and down the wage ladder regardless of automation. And the workforce needs to be flexible. Reeducate for new positions etc. if I had to guess, I would think the issue is that the US is still stuck in anno 1950/1960. If something can be done smarter it needs to be done smarter. Just as nobody should bag groceries as a job, they shouldn't even do that 30 years ago.

 

[Galvin]

Population going up, Number of jobs going down. I don't see this changing.

 

[nilepez]

Do you have any factual numbers on these jobs move downwards. And are they globally or just in the US?

Other places in the world, automation haven't lead to greater inequality. On the contrary it improves equality.

Jobs move up and down the wage ladder regardless of automation. And the workforce needs to be flexible. Reeducate for new positions etc. if I had to guess, I would think the issue is that the US is still stuck in anno 1950/1960. If something can be done smarter it needs to be done smarter.

Don't have time to do research (heading out the door), but here's a graph of mfg jobs vs service jobs (and the latter generally pays less).

 

[Gorankar]

If your job making cars went away, you probably didn't find another job that paid as well, so the fact that a car is affordable for most, doesn't really help that worker. In this country, blue collar workers were very much in the middle class up until 30-40 years ago. Many (most?) of those jobs have been automated or exported and in most cases a new job doesn't exist.

Going from 20 bucks an hour (unadjusted for inflation) to Cashier making near minimum wage is a huge problem today and it will only get worse over time. Government/society needs to figure out how they want solve this very real problem. I think we're going to find that there has to be a minimum salary and that may require high taxation on businesses, since so few will be able to work.

Maybe this won't happen, but it's certainly a possible. If handled well, it's not a bad thing.

When we get to that point, I suspect wholesale purges of the poor by our military. Our military being primarily robots by that time.
It's a race to the top. If you are not at the top by the time it gets to that point, you may as well not exist. Or you will exist at the whim of the wealthy elite. It's the opposite of Orwell, but just as grim.

 

[Shintai]

Don't have time to do research (heading out the door), but here's a graph of mfg jobs vs service jobs (and the latter generally pays less).

Well, any established modern economy runs a service economy. So that's not the issue.

 

[evilsofa]

Population going up, Number of jobs going down. I don't see this changing.

Are you someone else who thinks that if it's not assembly of a car, it's not a job?

 

[M76]

Don't have time to do research (heading out the door), but here's a graph of mfg jobs vs service jobs (and the latter generally pays less).

Service jobs were always better paying than standing beside a conveyor line. Being a cashier at a mcdonalds or wallmart are not the only service jobs. The graph you put in specifically mention finance, insurance, real estate and such, those certainly don't pay less than manufacturing. You'd probably have to be an executive in manufacturing to get more money than as a banker. And it's not the executives that are replaced by robots, it's the blue collars slaving away next to the conveyors.

The problem is not the robots. Anything that can be automated should be automated. The thing that worries me is the cheap labour in the 3rd world, that started to branch out into services too. Our only saving grace is that they're doing a shitty job most of the time. But that won't last forever.