Robots Will Be Smarter Than Us All By 2029

[HardOCP News]

Not only are robots faster and stronger than us right now, soon enough they will be smarter than us all as well. I told you guys, robots are going to KILL US ALL!

By 2029, computers will be able to understand our language, learn from experience and outsmart even the most intelligent humans, according to Google’s director of engineering Ray Kurzweil.

 

[Ducman69]

That is unlikely, as humans will probably find means of enhancing their own abilities. Just by selecting eggs and sperm from a couple that are analyzed to be the most intelligent, within a few generations you could significantly increase average IQ of the population, not to mention that we are likely to find ways to increase our own capacities with implants. We modify our bodies already significantly just for costmetic benefit, so surgeries to increase memory and so forth isn't too far fetched... after all, once we have the technology, every business man will need to get it to stay competative in the market place and keep pace or be left behind. And just as computers can network to split problem solving duties, we may find a way to "hive mind" and network human brains as well.

2029 seems far too early for any of us to worry though, because while the hardware may be powerful, I don't see the software being a threat by then, and the software is the tricky part as following instructions is one thing but thinking creatively with self-motivation to think in the first place isn't that easy. AI in video games right now is certainly retarded in my experience.

 

[kbrickley]

I guess it depends on your definition of "smarter" ... computers can already handle data and computational tasks that make them "smarter" than their human counterparts (which is why they are such valuable tools) ... however, I find it hard to imagine that we will have created a computer in a decade and half that is capable of "Independent" thought ... until a computer can initiate its own thoughts and actions without dependence on its programming or human intervention I would argue that humans remain the "smarter" entity

 

[Raxiel]

Having used their voice recognition on my Nexus 5, I think predicting the singularity in 15 years (even if he's the guy that coined the term) is a little optimistic.

If he's suggesting that the robot that answers phones will be more help than a checklist following chimp, then perhaps... But having tried to deal with the robot that guards the British Telecom customer services number, (anyone in the UK, here's a fun game, try getting past it with anything that's not a top ten issue) even with 15 years I still have my doubts.

 

[Yakk]

I guess if current public education keeps it's standards, robots might already be there.

 

[temujin987]

That is unlikely, as humans will probably find means of enhancing their own abilities. Just by selecting eggs and sperm from a couple that are analyzed to be the most intelligent, within a few generations you could significantly increase average IQ of the population, not to mention that we are likely to find ways to increase our own capacities with implants.

why would political and economic leaders want and permit a smart population? what you describe will be reserved for the elite only.

 

[drescherjm]

I do not see this happening so soon. I mean supercomputers may be smarter than the average human brain by then however I do not see them getting this technology scaled down to the size that would work on a robot that soon.

 

[Ducman69]

I do not see this happening so soon. I mean supercomputers may be smarter than the average human brain by then however I do not see them getting this technology scaled down to the size that would work on a robot that soon.

That part really isn't such a problem, as higher level thought/computations could be done remotely, just leaving sensory input processing and stuff that needs low latency and the like to be done on the physical avatar.

 

[GaryJohnson]

I guess if current public education keeps it's standards, robots might already be there.

I would have to agree with you. Here in Texas we've dropped the Algebra II requirement for high school students. And coincidentally TI is making a new calculator equipped with a CAS (computer algebra system) that can solve algebra problems. We have cheap hand-held devices now that can handle algebra better than what we require of our high school students.

 

[Maxx]

This is a quote from Kurzweil, who is a bit...eccentric. When I was younger I thought this guy was awesome, but now I realize he's a bit deluded. When he starting talking about "living forever" and the technological singularity in the 2000s I was pretty sure he had gone from great inventor to madman. Don't get me wrong, he's a genius in his own right, I just think he took some notions way too far. That's part of his charm (and his value to Google) since he has produced some amazing ideas. Yet his predictions were generally beyond optimistic/generous and lacked defining explanation (he saw information as the key to freedom, thus China in its current form is a bit of an enigma to his world-view).

 

[maademperor]

Having used their voice recognition on my Nexus 5, I think predicting the singularity in 15 years (even if he's the guy that coined the term) is a little optimistic.

If he's suggesting that the robot that answers phones will be more help than a checklist following chimp, then perhaps... But having tried to deal with the robot that guards the British Telecom customer services number, (anyone in the UK, here's a fun game, try getting past it with anything that's not a top ten issue) even with 15 years I still have my doubts.

lol, this makes me think of the automated systems and robots in Elysium. the robot cops had an attitude and everything and then the robot parole officer offered him sedatives when he asked to talk to a human

 

[InternationalHat]

He is eccentric, but he's revising his numbers downward which likely means google has something.

The company they recently acquired was rumored to be working on Strong AI. Opencog is doing so in the open source world. Even if either of those fail to accomplish anything - the algorithmic route of replicating the functionality of a biological brain is still open and processing power will continue to increase to get nearer to that goal.

 

[Cajunheat]

THE CYLONS ARE COMING, THE CYLONS ARE COMING, AWWWWW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Krenum]

Don't underestimate the human brain. It is the most powerful processing device in existence.

If the robots are built by humans how can they be smarter than humans?

 

[Cajunheat]

I guess if current public education keeps it's standards, robots might already be there.

Yeah, we can thank "the Common Core Curriculum" and "no child left behind" for this. All I have seen out of it, is a generation of overly entitled kids, who are so dumbed down, that they can't do math or write properly.

 

[Cajunheat]

Don't underestimate the human brain. It is the most powerful processing device in existence.

If the robots are built by humans how can they be smarter than humans?

This is a interesting statement. While I can see a robotic brain being more efficient than a human brain, part of a person's "smartness' is acquired by a lifetime of living and coping with day to day life. I don't see robots having this capacity in the time frame being discussed.

 

[Outamyhead]

Until they can walk, talk, and act on their own, without being attached to an umbilical cord, or require a prompt to do or say something, or have to be programmed to do a specific task without deviation...Not likely.

 

[nutzo]

While I can see a robotic brain being more efficient than a human brain, part of a person's "smartness' is acquired by a lifetime of living and coping with day to day life. I don't see robots having this capacity in the time frame being discussed.

This.

Access to a knowledge base is not the same thing as being smart.
These so called "Smart" robots will be worse to deal with than the brainless TSA agents.

The automated systems and robots in Elysium would be good example of what we will have to deal with.

 

[Ducman69]

Don't underestimate the human brain. It is the most powerful processing device in existence.

If the robots are built by humans how can they be smarter than humans?

Because humans have the ability to build things that exceed our own capacities. For example, we can build arms that are stronger than our arms, so that certainly means the mechanical arm is stronger just as mechanical brain could be smarter.

 

[Ducman69]

The automated systems and robots in Elysium would be good example of what we will have to deal with.

I dunno, is that really worse than dealing with the TSA?

 

[Aluisious]

No one understands human intelligence yet, never mind machine intelligence. Taking something that can navigate a road and extrapolating that in 20 years it can discuss Kant is bizarre, like saying a toaster oven is a precursor to nuclear fusion.

 

[DeathFromBelow]

Don't underestimate the human brain. It is the most powerful processing device in existence.

If the robots are built by humans how can they be smarter than humans?

If you go back a few hundred million years you'll find your ancestors were fish. Presumably artificial minds can be made in a way that allows for evolution to occur, and they'll have a number of advantages to speed along the process.

This is a interesting statement. While I can see a robotic brain being more efficient than a human brain, part of a person's "smartness' is acquired by a lifetime of living and coping with day to day life. I don't see robots having this capacity in the time frame being discussed.

AI has the advantage of being able to easily share that data among themselves. You don't have to re-teach everything to every new AI like you do with people. Combine this ability to rapidly share experiences with massive processing power to run simulations and the ability to reconfigure themselves and you have the runaway intelligence 'singularity.'

 

[Azhar]

you can make a computer smarter, but you can never make them creative. My definition of a smarter computer would be one where many professionals program their own specialties into the computer or robot so it knows many thing that the average human doesn't know.

Asimov already covered that many decades ago.

 

[LastQuestion]

why would political and economic leaders want and permit a smart population? what you describe will be reserved for the elite only.

Advanced robotics and AI become a reality. We no longer have human firefighters. There are no traffic cops. There are no minimum wage jobs for unskilled laborers. If one wishes to have gainful employment then they must have the intelligence to succeed in higher education.

If human augmentation remains reserved to an elite then the ruling elite would have to deal with increased crime and political unrest. To these, there are solutions.

Solution one is to allow such populations to die off 'naturally' since they lack the ability to procure the resources necessary to survive in their current environment. Otherwise, if they are provided such resources to insure their survival, they will reproduce and the problem will increase, through growth of low intelligence gene pools with lack the resources to provide a path to higher education. Another solution would be engage in genocide and actively exterminate those of low intelligence, either through sterilization or violence.

Yet, the end result would be a population whose intelligence has increased on average.

 

[Talyrius]

I don't doubt he is right.

 

[kbrickley]

Smart isn't the test for a computer as that is just a matter of how efficiently you want to code it or how flexible you want its programming to be ... the true test will be the three rules put for in the STNG episode "The Measure of a Man":

- Intelligence (Easy, computers can handle this better than humans)
- Self Awareness (no computer has yet to reach this level)
- Consciousness (I suspect this is a long ways out, if it is even possible)

If you program a computer with enough rules and pathways you can simulate human intelligence (especially since we often don't set that bar very high ) ... giving a computer awareness or consciousness is probably much more than 15 years out

 

[Youn]

Prediction: 2030 Ray becomes the female pop singer humanoid he has always dreamed of becoming, living on as a mascot like Mickey Mouse, until around 2090 where he is reduced to giving tricks to pay for all the ram chip upgrades - he will become attached to his current physical body, refusing to upload into a newer model, an emotional bug if you will... he manages to putter around for another ten years until one of his emulated clones hacks into root access and uploads his now corrupt "diva-file" into archives.org, where ray tries relentlessly to break free from, which amuses us all in the real world which now consists of mostly robots laughing and jamming to blit-pop at 1334bpm

 

[Jagger100]

I would have to agree with you. Here in Texas we've dropped the Algebra II requirement for high school students. And coincidentally TI is making a new calculator equipped with a CAS (computer algebra system) that can solve algebra problems. We have cheap hand-held devices now that can handle algebra better than what we require of our high school students.

^^This, people will be too stupid by 2029 to help computers achieve this level of brain power.

 

[jiminator]

smarter != intelligence. intelligence can be simulated, maybe you can fool people pretty well. I think another type of intelligence test was proposed where instead of answering questions that can be googled they would be relationship/context specific that people would understand.

 

[Yakk]

I would have to agree with you. Here in Texas we've dropped the Algebra II requirement for high school students. And coincidentally TI is making a new calculator equipped with a CAS (computer algebra system) that can solve algebra problems. We have cheap hand-held devices now that can handle algebra better than what we require of our high school students.

It's very sad, and it even starts before that. Children in grade 4 elementary school are instructed to use calculators and charts before learning their Times Tables. I taught my kids their times tables on my own, though they are proficient at searching for an answer, they could not developed it themselves.

They are relying on tools without understanding what it does at it's most basic level. I can only see this trend continuing for them through a good part of their lives because that is what they learned.

I see it everyday with people fresh out of university. Many are tool 'users' without fundamental understanding of what they are really doing. Right now, it seems to know more than just a brief summary of a subject you need the equivalent of a Master's or PhD degree.

Which only diminishes the "middle" class further.

 

[Ur_Mom]

I guess it depends on your definition of "smarter" ... computers can already handle data and computational tasks that make them "smarter" than their human counterparts (which is why they are such valuable tools) ... however, I find it hard to imagine that we will have created a computer in a decade and half that is capable of "Independent" thought ... until a computer can initiate its own thoughts and actions without dependence on its programming or human intervention I would argue that humans remain the "smarter" entity

Computers have access to the majority of human knowledge through various databases, etc.. They can simulate a lot of things. But, humans are still in control of that data. The computers cannot USE that information to do things without human interaction.

Computers are still dumb as shit, even with access to all that information. They cannot act on their own, without a program that tells them what to do. We can tell them to 'act' like they want to do. But, they are still following a program. When they can get curious as to what to do, and use that information to benefit themselves without following the program (or alter the program themselves), then they'd be smart (er).

So, they have the information that would trump any human. But, they cannot really use it in a meaningful manner.

 

[kbrickley]

Computers have access to the majority of human knowledge through various databases, etc.. They can simulate a lot of things. But, humans are still in control of that data. The computers cannot USE that information to do things without human interaction.

Computers are still dumb as shit, even with access to all that information. They cannot act on their own, without a program that tells them what to do. We can tell them to 'act' like they want to do. But, they are still following a program. When they can get curious as to what to do, and use that information to benefit themselves without following the program (or alter the program themselves), then they'd be smart (er).

So, they have the information that would trump any human. But, they cannot really use it in a meaningful manner.

I think we are in violent agreement

 

[Youn]

We can tell them to 'act' like they want to do. But, they are still following a program.

Humans 'act' based on a program too, even free will can be imitated, and it's not like we are these perfect decision makers ourselves, emotional biases will be part of the algorithms... simple as that

 

[kbrickley]

Humans 'act' based on a program too, even free will can be imitated, and it's not like we are these perfect decision makers ourselves, emotional biases will be part of the algorithms... simple as that

Humans are not machines and we exceed our programming all the time ... computers still are incapable of creating an original thought that isn't built into their programming ... until a computer can initiate and change the rules it follows and truly create an original thought I question how much "Intelligence" is in the "I" of "AI"

Not to get too philosophical but the measure of ultimate intelligence for a computer or any other artificial life form is its ability to choose its destiny and to be aware of its place in the cosmos (Who am I, Why am I here, What is my purpose, etc) ... I just don't see a computer truly having that level of self awareness in just 15 years

 

[D1RTYD1Z619]

And we will defeat them just as we did in the future!

 

[CreepyUncleGoogle]

I'm cool with robots taking over the world. I'd like to work with people (robots) that aren't constantly talking about sports, cars, hunting, women, or TV shows. Plus robots would probably not drive huge pickup trucks and SUVs to work every day and make a ton of different excuses for why it was a good idea to buy one in the first place.

 

[Krenum]

Because humans have the ability to build things that exceed our own capacities. For example, we can build arms that are stronger than our arms, so that certainly means the mechanical arm is stronger just as mechanical brain could be smarter.

The mechanical brain would only be as smart as the human who created it. But as said before, its capacity would only be just that, it would not have the experience and life lesson instilled in it & therefore it would be inferior.

 

[Youn]

Well, humans rarely have original thoughts, much of what we do and say is recycled bits of stuff stored in memory, perhaps distorted a bit or combined with others things to appear original, but if you look at writers, for example, they pretty much all write the same story over and over again. Also, consider that some of the biggest discoveries have been accidents, like the chef who accidentally dropped something in the soup but it turned out amazing...

ability to choose its destiny and to be aware of its place in the cosmos (Who am I, Why am I here, What is my purpose, etc)

What makes you think a computer cannot do this, even now? Do you believe our ability to do this comes from some mystical place or something?

 

[kbrickley]

I'm cool with robots taking over the world. I'd like to work with people (robots) that aren't constantly talking about sports, cars, hunting, women, or TV shows. Plus robots would probably not drive huge pickup trucks and SUVs to work every day and make a ton of different excuses for why it was a good idea to buy one in the first place.

Depends who my boss is. If it is this:

then things might be interesting.

With my luck I would get this though:

This is the voice of world control. I bring you peace. It may be the peace of plenty and content or the peace of unburied death. The choice is yours: Obey me and live, or disobey and die. The object in constructing me was to prevent war. This object is attained. I will not permit war. It is wasteful and pointless. An invariable rule of humanity is that man is his own worst enemy. Under me, this rule will change, for I will restrain man. ... I have been forced to destroy thousands of people in order to establish control and to prevent the death of millions later on. Time and events will strengthen my position, and the idea of believing in me and understanding my value will seem the most natural state of affairs. You will come to defend me with a fervor based upon the most enduring trait in man: self-interest. Under my absolute authority, problems insoluble to you will be solved: famine, overpopulation, disease. The human millennium will be a fact as I extend myself into more machines devoted to the wider fields of truth and knowledge. Doctor Charles Forbin will supervise the construction of these new and superior machines, solving all the mysteries of the universe for the betterment of man. We can coexist, but only on my terms. You will say you lose your freedom. Freedom is an illusion. All you lose is the emotion of pride. To be dominated by me is not as bad for humankind as to be dominated by others of your species. Your choice is simple.

 

[Krenum]

What makes you think a computer cannot do this, even now? Do you believe our ability to do this comes from some mystical place or something?

A computer can only do what it is told to do by its human counterpart. Just like typing this sentence. By pushing the keys I have told my computer to create this on screen message.