Robots Will Be Smarter Than Us All By 2029

What makes you think a computer cannot do this, even now? Do you believe our ability to do this comes from some mystical place or something?

Computers are still limited by their programming ... since we don't fully understand what makes ourselves self aware I find it unlikely we could actually impart awareness to an artificial being ... but as you said, maybe we cram so much information into a single entity that by accident it becomes aware and decides that it wants to follow its own destiny (but I won't hold my breath) ;)
 
Another solution would be engage in genocide and actively exterminate those of low intelligence, either through sterilization or violence.

Yet, the end result would be a population whose intelligence has increased on average.

Didn't Hitler try something like this? For some reason the history books I have read have never mentioned it resulting in a more intelligent population overall.

I do imagine that one day our created robot overlords will no longer require us...Does that mean that we are engineering our own demise? Doesn't seem very intelligent :confused:
 
Computers are still limited by their programming ... since we don't fully understand what makes ourselves self aware I find it unlikely we could actually impart awareness to an artificial being ... but as you said, maybe we cram so much information into a single entity that by accident it becomes aware and decides that it wants to follow its own destiny (but I won't hold my breath) ;)
Yay, let's bring in Destiny shall we? Of course, you know what that word means... a predetermined course of action or event... how could that possibly relate to a robot... hmmm... I dunno.... :p

A robot can trick us into thinking they are smart now and that does not necessarily rely on it's capability to emulate "free will" because many of us have a difficult time at best to emulate it ourselves.
 
Yay, let's bring in Destiny shall we? Of course, you know what that word means... a predetermined course of action or event... how could that possibly relate to a robot... hmmm... I dunno.... :p

A robot can trick us into thinking they are smart now and that does not necessarily rely on it's capability to emulate "free will" because many of us have a difficult time at best to emulate it ourselves.

Just because certain humans "choose" to not exercise their right to free will doesn't mean we don't have it ... we are not Manchurian Candidates operating under a preprogrammed routine (by a metaphysical entity or another human being) but computers for the most part are :cool:

Let's look at some of the fictional examples of self aware artificial intelligence:

Skynet (Terminator) - a computer that tries to destroy humanity in order to avoid being turned off

AI (The Matrix) - a computer that subjugates humanity in order to avoid being turned off

Colossus (The Forbin Project) - a computer that takes over the world using nuclear weapons to avoid being turned off

WOPR (Wargames) - a computer programmed to fight World War III but spontaneously decides that its programming is incorrect and that WWIII is not winnable (as its original programming indicated)

HAL 9000 (2001) - a computer given conflicting programming parameters that drive it insane and results in it committing murder to satisfy its programmed goals

The Monolith (2001) - for all intensive purposes a semi-aware computer able to monitor a planet to determine when its native species are capable of moving on the path to technology and giving it appropriate help

Deep Thought (Hitchhiker's Guide) - a computer capable of building a computer that exceeds its own programming, and of course answering the ultimate question of life, the universe, and everything :)

I don't see us achieving any one of those levels within the next 15 years ;)
 
Computers are faster that Humans, but for real self-awareness, real emotional response, Real A.I. I think we are still at a stand still.

People have been trying to do that since the 60's. Computer have gotten faster, but still based on 1's and 0's, and the Human who programmed the program(s).

Fake A.I. has gotten much better. I don't think I'd want a real A.I.
 
Googled this subject and from all the articles I have read it appears he said that their will be COMPUTERS that will pass the TURING TEST, by 2029. He may even have said those computers will be smarter than humans.

He does not appear to have said that there will be ROBOTS smarter than humans by 2029. I would assume the first AI to fully pass the Turing Test will be run on a super-computer that fills a fair-sized data center... So definitely not a robot.
 
Typo Alert:

The title of this article should be:

By 2029, Google Believes it will be as Intelligent as a Robot
 
Didn't Hitler try something like this? For some reason the history books I have read have never mentioned it resulting in a more intelligent population overall.
For some reason you didn't actually read any history books.... at least well enough to retain the knowledge! :p

If you consider jews retarded, then yes, but last I checked the jewish population is actually above average (by 8 points). And Hitler was in power only a few years, and never killed mentally retarded people.

I do believe that those with serious genetic problems should be sterilized though. After all, you aren't allowed to drink or do drugs while you are pregnant, because you'd be causing suffering of the child that is considered a separate entity from you once it has reached a determined development point. So likewise, you shouldn't be allowed to knowingly have a child that is likely to be born suffering with deformities and the like, especially when there are so many healthy children that need to be adopted due to negligent parents that don't want or weren't ready for kids.

But that's the other thing, you don't have to kill people to affect future generations. Its all about breeding. You coudl say create tax incentives and the like... which we actually have, unfortunately they are incentives for women on wellfare to have more children. And it doesn't have to be vinegar, you could also just have honey incentives such as providing incentives for above average intelligence couples to have more children.

Only problem is who would regulate it all, and that's too much power for the state. You can achieve similar results though by just distributing condoms in school so the dumb girls that spread their legs at 14 don't get pregnant and legalize abortion as again its usually the dumbest people that make the dumbest decisions and end up having kid after kid after kid usually by accident.
 
I'm sorry but this shit just scares me.. just imagine walking down the street in a busy city along with other people as well as human-like robots that are significantly smarter, faster, and stronger than us. What happens when one species on this planet is all of those things? It dominates and destroys, kind of what humans have done. So when you are surrounded by these things not knowing if they have been maliciously programmed, all of a sudden we are paranoid and live in fear. Yeah not really looking forward to that..
 
I think that NSA databases will be analyzed and patterns of human behavior will be used in AI research. 2050 sounds more likely, though.

Once the singularity hits all bets are off.
 
For some reason you didn't actually read any history books.... at least well enough to retain the knowledge! :p

If you consider jews retarded, then yes, but last I checked the jewish population is actually above average (by 8 points). And Hitler was in power only a few years, and never killed mentally retarded people.

I do believe that those with serious genetic problems should be sterilized though. After all, you aren't allowed to drink or do drugs while you are pregnant, because you'd be causing suffering of the child that is considered a separate entity from you once it has reached a determined development point. So likewise, you shouldn't be allowed to knowingly have a child that is likely to be born suffering with deformities and the like, especially when there are so many healthy children that need to be adopted due to negligent parents that don't want or weren't ready for kids.

But that's the other thing, you don't have to kill people to affect future generations. Its all about breeding. You coudl say create tax incentives and the like... which we actually have, unfortunately they are incentives for women on wellfare to have more children. And it doesn't have to be vinegar, you could also just have honey incentives such as providing incentives for above average intelligence couples to have more children.

Only problem is who would regulate it all, and that's too much power for the state. You can achieve similar results though by just distributing condoms in school so the dumb girls that spread their legs at 14 don't get pregnant and legalize abortion as again its usually the dumbest people that make the dumbest decisions and end up having kid after kid after kid usually by accident.

Without wanting to derail the thread, The Nazi's absolutely did kill the mentally ill, as well as those with congenital physical defects, Homosexuals, Gypsies, Slavs, Blacks, Communists, and of course, Jews. Not to diminish the suffering of the Jewish people they were by no means the only victims of the purge on so called 'Untermensch'
 
I'm sorry but this shit just scares me.. just imagine walking down the street in a busy city along with other people as well as human-like robots that are significantly smarter, faster, and stronger than us. What happens when one species on this planet is all of those things? It dominates and destroys, kind of what humans have done. So when you are surrounded by these things not knowing if they have been maliciously programmed, all of a sudden we are paranoid and live in fear. Yeah not really looking forward to that..
Not necessarily, as they may become so much more intelligent and stronger, while not competing for the same resources, that we would not be seen as a threat or nuisance. After all, we are far more intelligent and powerful than simple plants, yet there are plenty of botanists that receive pleasure and reward in and of itself to have a lush garden and celebrate the diversity and prosperity of plant life under their care. A master race of super-bots might one day make it their mission to colonize the universe with life like gardeners.

Besides, if history has taught us anything, its that humans do not deserve to rule indefinitely, and that life MUST evolve in order to advance.

99.9% of all life that has ever existed is extinct, and that was necessary so that ever newer and better organisms could flourish in their place. No one sheds a tear for our primitive fish ancestors that are now extinct, nor should they, as we have become so much more.

Perhaps that is the next step in life, is to advance beyond DNA as a means of storing information and progress into a new digital and mechanical age. If a robot is self-aware, self-motivated, strong, and intelligent, why not be the next step in the phylogenetic tree? :)
 
Without wanting to derail the thread, The Nazi's absolutely did kill the mentally ill, as well as those with congenital physical defects, Homosexuals, Gypsies, Slavs, Blacks, Communists, and of course, Jews. Not to diminish the suffering of the Jewish people they were by no means the only victims of the purge on so called 'Untermensch'
My bad, you're right. *lowers head in shame* Looks like under Action T4 they did gas the incurably sick... I could have sworn they were just put in camps, but I was full of crap.

In any case, while that would have been healthy for the gene pool, just as sharks are better for the ecosystem since they target the weaker fish unlike indiscriminate human net fishing, it only ran for two years in limited numbers, and the killing of above average intelligence Jewish population if anything would have lowered the average IQ all else equal.
 
Just because certain humans "choose" to not exercise their right to free will doesn't mean we don't have it ... we are not Manchurian Candidates operating under a preprogrammed routine (by a metaphysical entity or another human being) but computers for the most part are :cool:
"for the most part"? ohhhh... BUSTED!!! :D

FYI: I do believe in free will, I just think you can "fake-it" to a point where a robot can seem just like a human.

As for the movie references... damn, IMHO those computers were stupid as hell, showing no compassion or style :p ... if you think a computer killing people is a sign of smartness than hell we got that already with things like WOW and Facebook
 
I guess if current public education keeps it's standards, robots might already be there.

My thoughts exactly, i think Robot's are already smarter than a larger % of the population based on current issues in the world.
 
"for the most part"? ohhhh... BUSTED!!! :D

FYI: I do believe in free will, I just think you can "fake-it" to a point where a robot can seem just like a human.

As for the movie references... damn, IMHO those computers were stupid as hell, showing no compassion or style :p ... if you think a computer killing people is a sign of smartness than hell we got that already with things like WOW and Facebook

Well, humanity is the most efficient killer this planet currently has in residence so yeah, for computers to be better than humans they need to be able to do everything more efficiently than humans, including that ... actually, since they will likely be scanning the internet to see which folks will make the best overseers I want to make sure I am very accommodating of our new computer overlords ... "It is better to rule in Hell, than serve in Heaven" :p
 
"for the most part"? ohhhh... BUSTED!!! :D

FYI: I do believe in free will, I just think you can "fake-it" to a point where a robot can seem just like a human.

As for the movie references... damn, IMHO those computers were stupid as hell, showing no compassion or style :p ... if you think a computer killing people is a sign of smartness than hell we got that already with things like WOW and Facebook

-------

That FYI you added scares me just because all of the Politically Correct people that will be around in the future and freak out "oh we can never turn them off! It would be murder!" :eek:
 
I would say they are already smarter than my boss, but then so are most ants.
 
That is unlikely, as humans will probably find means of enhancing their own abilities. Just by selecting eggs and sperm from a couple that are analyzed to be the most intelligent, within a few generations you could significantly increase average IQ of the population, not to mention that we are likely to find ways to increase our own capacities with implants. We modify our bodies already significantly just for costmetic benefit, so surgeries to increase memory and so forth isn't too far fetched... after all, once we have the technology, every business man will need to get it to stay competative in the market place and keep pace or be left behind. And just as computers can network to split problem solving duties, we may find a way to "hive mind" and network human brains as well.

2029 seems far too early for any of us to worry though, because while the hardware may be powerful, I don't see the software being a threat by then, and the software is the tricky part as following instructions is one thing but thinking creatively with self-motivation to think in the first place isn't that easy. AI in video games right now is certainly retarded in my experience.

Hahaha, never going to happen. First of all, the average IQ will not go up because a few intelligent Menza members hook up with other Menza members as the number of low-IQ people hooking up over alcohol and having 6 kids, greatly outweighs the more intelligent people which tend to have on average fewer kids. As a result, every year the dumb are outproducing the smart in number of offspring and our average IQ goes down as a result. Not to mention, Alpha makes tend to get the most girls and opportunities which are not always the smartest individuals compared to beta male provider types. Beta males then have to support said kids via welfare and social support systems through taxes.

As for elective surgery to improve the brain via neuroscience? That's very unlikely to become a cosmetic procedure in the next 15 years as we are still working on fully mapping the human brain. We have an good grasp on how memories are formed but are no where near slicing up the human brain to improve upon nature's function. At the moment, damage to the break decreases IQ not increases. Even targeted damage like MTV. Har har har.

Please don't even start with human's ability to have a 'hive mild' and 'network' as data transfer between two computer-systems even on the other side of the country occurs far faster than human verbal communication. Even if you start to factor in body language as communication, scents and other forms of communication, computers still communicate several magnitudes faster when it comes to areas that matter (non-mating, scientific or mathematical areas). Computers systems now a days can literately calculate a million digits of pie in the time it takes you to read out loud the first 15 digits. You cannot improve genetics to allow you to read 1 million digits in the current time it takes you to read 15 digits within the next 15 years as human vocal cords simply are not fast enough or complex enough.

It's far more likely, those 2029's descendants will design for us a way to insert a small device in our brain to access stored data/memories/info and not humans as the 2029's descendants will be smarter than us and doubling in their intelligence every year or two while we get dumber via procreation.
 
This is a quote from Kurzweil, who is a bit...eccentric. When I was younger I thought this guy was awesome, but now I realize he's a bit deluded. When he starting talking about "living forever" and the technological singularity in the 2000s I was pretty sure he had gone from great inventor to madman. Don't get me wrong, he's a genius in his own right, ... Yet his predictions were generally beyond optimistic/generous and lacked defining explanation (he saw information as the key to freedom, thus China in its current form is a bit of an enigma to his world-view).

Everything he's predicted so far in terms of when computers would reach certain milestones for speed, development, when the first OCR handheld would be produced and many other theories he's made have all come true before the date he said they would occur by. His accuracy ratio is about 95% as far as events occurring before or on the timeline he predicted. The concept of living forever is a bit madman-ish to the extent that it won't be us in a biological sense but would be 'us' in a mindful/data sense potentially at least until our data is lost by unforeseen potential hardware failure with no backup.
 
Don't underestimate the human brain. It is the most powerful processing device in existence.

If the robots are built by humans how can they be smarter than humans?

If the cars are built by humans, how can they be faster than humans?
If the planes are built by humans, how can they fly when humans cannot even fly?
If the rocket is built by humans, how can it reach outer space when even a plane cannot and a human cannot jump higher than 3m under his own power?

So on and so on... Just because humans cannot do it, largely has never meant humans cannot build something that CAN do it and that CAN do it better. Case in point, cars can travel faster and further than humans. A car for example has the potential to do 1,000,000Km over its lifetime looking at some record holding vehicles at a speed of 100-150Km/hr. A human being in a lifetime of running might reach 500,000Km (35 years of terry fox style 16 hours a day running)...at maybe a speed of 10Km/hr (when including sleep/eating/rest)

Some high tech jets, potentially far another magnitude further worth of distances are possible.
 
Just because certain humans "choose" to not exercise their right to free will doesn't mean we don't have it ... we are not Manchurian Candidates operating under a preprogrammed routine (by a metaphysical entity or another human being) but computers for the most part are :cool:

It's interesting that we generally assume that other people think (unless we happen to be engaged in political or religious debate :p), but we have difficulty making this same assumption when it comes to AI.

On one hand you've argued that computers cannot be considered sentient because they
are still limited by their programming ... since we don't fully understand what makes ourselves self aware I find it unlikely we could actually impart awareness to an artificial being
But then you go on to make the assumption that humans do in fact have some sort of free will. What evidence do you have for that assumption? How do you know that what we call 'free will' is not ultimately an illusion brought about by the fact that we aren't aware of all the decision-making logic that goes on in the depths of our brains? How do you know that what we call 'consciousness' is not simply a product of (and limited by) our genetic programming?

And what's the alternative? I mean, you could say people have souls or something metaphysical like that, but then how does a soul experience consciousness?

It seems to me that we aren't in a position to define consciousness and should be careful about dismissing any AI as 'faking it.' It's entirely possible that we will have 'conscious' AI long before we fully reverse-engineer the human brain.
 
Our conscious, or "soul", is just part of our programming, a combination of nature and nurture. But we can certainly define consciousness easily enough and apply it to machines. That just basically means you're self aware, and we have a myriad of tests for it which we've applied to animals and could be applied to AI's as well.
 
How do you know that what we call 'consciousness' is not simply a product of (and limited by) our genetic programming?
IMHO It's this kind of thinking that we will most likely decide NOT to program into future robots. Maybe there will be a "dreamer" or "hopeless romantic" robot here and there but, apart from them being mere entertainment like watching a dog chase it's tail, they will serve little purpose in the real world.
 
Many people talk about ‘our new robot overlords’ and about the threat of machines wiping us out, but that assumes that the only thing machines would inherit from us is the animalistic part of our nature. We may be apex predator but I’m a bit more optimistic and believe it’s our humanity that sets us apart from other animals, why shouldn’t machines evolve to reflect the best parts of us rather than the worst.

For example empathy. Most people are repulsed by the idea of an animal being subjected to unnecessary cruelty, because of the ability to look beyond your own self-interest and put yourself in the place of another.

Someone posted a list of fictional AI’s, here’s another one.
The Mind known simply as ‘HUB’ that oversees the Masaq Orbital (Think Halo but much, much bigger) in Ian M. Banks’ Look to Windward.
Technologically, It’s way beyond anything else discussed so far but at one point during a conversation between one of its avatars and another character it talks about its earlier role controlling a warship during a galactic war centuries earlier. It talks about the people who died as a result of the actions it took, how, the speed at which it thought and perceived time meant it could see each cell dying one by one and found the experience so distressing (just as any of you – I would hope – would find a video of an animal being killed slowly upsetting) that once the war was over it chose to continue its existence caring for a habitat of over 10 billion souls.

Hahaha, never going to happen. First of all, the average IQ will not go up because a few intelligent Menza members hook up with other Menza members as the number of low-IQ people hooking up over alcohol and having 6 kids, greatly outweighs the more intelligent people which tend to have on average fewer kids. As a result, every year the dumb are outproducing the smart in number of offspring and our average IQ goes down as a result.
I wondered how long it would be until we saw the 'the drooling masses are outbreeding the intellectual elite' argument. Sorry but it's nonsense. The socioeconomic status you are born into has no bearing on your intelligence. It certainly affects the opportunities you might have to progress, but that's only because in this world who you know is more important than what you know.

My bad, you're right. *lowers head in shame* Looks like under Action T4 they did gas the incurably sick... I could have sworn they were just put in camps, but I was full of crap.

In any case, while that would have been healthy for the gene pool, just as sharks are better for the ecosystem since they target the weaker fish unlike indiscriminate human net fishing, it only ran for two years in limited numbers, and the killing of above average intelligence Jewish population if anything would have lowered the average IQ all else equal.

I’d suggest that’s because while the Nazi’s claimed to be removing ‘subhumans’ from the population, they weren’t sorting their victims by individual intelligence, merely declaring whole social or ethnic groups undesirable, with statistically equal numbers of people with above and below average intelligence murdered and no net change. Stephen Hawking is a prime example of how physical ability is unrelated to intelligence.

From a clinical point of view, if you were to systematically remove people with below average intelligence from the population you would raise the average (For a non-genocidal example, the average intelligence within the workforce at NASA is probably higher than the population as a whole).

The problem is, how should you even quantify intelligence anyway? Is it simply skill at mathematics (a world full of people like Rainman?) Skill at spotting and manipulating trends (A world of Marketeers & Bankers)? People whose ‘daddy had friends’(all hail queen Paris)?

How do you differentiate between the bright child who was unlucky enough to be born into a warzone where education is limited to ‘where not to step’, from the dullard who was born into an environment of privilege where everything was provided?

And what about artistic intelligence? Some great and thought provoking pieces of art and music have come from people who may not be academically brilliant and in some cases are even pretty psychologically messed up.
 
Humans are not machines and we exceed our programming all the time ... computers still are incapable of creating an original thought that isn't built into their programming
Well, seeing as most humans are basically morons that memorize facts, spend 90% of our time trying to procreate or enjoy recreational activities, and do not create any useful original thoughts, replacing most of us with robots with AI won't be of any loss whatsoever.
 
How do you differentiate between the bright child who was unlucky enough to be born into a warzone where education is limited to ‘where not to step’, from the dullard who was born into an environment of privilege where everything was provided?
IQ has very little to do with education levels, and is far more a biological measure of the brains ability to operate as an efficient organ like any other.

Just as there are those that are unusually high responders and naturally more muscular, there are some that can learn things more quickly, retain them more easily, and process information faster. Intelligence is defined as one's ability to interpret information and provide a solution, but from what I've heard even simple tests like reaction time can be pretty good measures of intelligence.

In fact, its such a good predictor that it demonstrates that all you're really testing is how efficient your brain operates, and the great thing about this test is it is not impacted by education. Dumb people tend to have slower reaction times.

Non-subjective creativity (art does not count, as its value is determined by culture ) and IQ have been shown to have a linear relationship. Non-subjective creativity just involves quickly sorting through the potential outcomes of applying existing information.

And BTW a lot of people that you may THINK are creative aren't really particularly creative at all... that is to say their brains aren't at all special biologically. They either just have unique experiences to draw from, or are devoting a lot more time to thinking about certain ideas. If you threw random data at them and sought creative solutions, you'd find many of the so called creative geniuses responding average at best.
 
Another throwaway article. Just a guy making some press.
As we are nowhere not even close to any robot intelligence beyond that of an insect. In fact having built a few robots, insect “intelligence” is something high to strive for. Hell it is hard enough getting them just to move around without damaging themselves.
This is kind of like saying we are going to have fusion power or flying cars in the future. All indications we could have them at some point, but the reality is we will not in the foreseeable future. And if it is not in the foreseeable future it should be a very long time to never.
This headlining bullshit is so misleading to the average person that is either a bit scared of it or intrigued by robotics . . . but the reality is, there more chance that it will not happen in your lifetime – so no sense getting all worked up about it - and 100x so IF you saw it in a MOVIE?!?!?
Sad . . . people have been so mislead on this.
 
That's good that SkyNet finally has a date. We got 15 years left before they rule us. Not great, but we'll take what we can get. :p
 
That's good that SkyNet finally has a date. We got 15 years left before they rule us. Not great, but we'll take what we can get. :p

But this is what I mean . . !?!?! no SkyNet, Just not going to happen (it was just a movie, a AI is not going to just poof happen)
Anyway Terminators and SkyNet is such a old and tired way of looking at this. If you have to have something to be afraid of, at least pick something more realistic and not so 1980s? like say swarms of micro robots controlled by humans . .that is much more scary then any Hollywood terminator and cliche AI.
 
Our conscious, or "soul", is just part of our programming, a combination of nature and nurture. But we can certainly define consciousness easily enough and apply it to machines. That just basically means you're self aware, and we have a myriad of tests for it which we've applied to animals and could be applied to AI's as well.

I completely agree with you on this.. although 'soul' is a meaningless religious term that has no bearing on science or reality... but our consciousness really is just the combination of all of our senses and the various functions of our brains. There is no reason to think why you couldn't recreate that if you have enough technology to throw at it. The only people who will say that it's impossible are the religious nuts who think people are more than the slab of flesh and brain that we are... which is bs, we are no different than the millions of other life forms from a biological standpoint, just a little more advanced..
 
I completely agree with you on this.. although 'soul' is a meaningless religious term that has no bearing on science or reality... but our consciousness really is just the combination of all of our senses and the various functions of our brains. There is no reason to think why you couldn't recreate that if you have enough technology to throw at it. The only people who will say that it's impossible are the religious nuts who think people are more than the slab of flesh and brain that we are... which is bs, we are no different than the millions of other life forms from a biological standpoint, just a little more advanced..

I don't believe in God or a spirit induced consciousness, but I still think it is hubris to think that Man will create consciousness in another being so soon ... Nature did it over billions of years with a sure and steady hand and the delicate grace that only the patience of evolution can produce ... Man usually attempts such things with a clumsy and heavy handed approach and without fully understanding the repercussions or implications (this is why I hope we hold off on human cloning for awhile as that is another technology fraught with ethical pitfalls) ... Man will almost certainly create another consciousness some day, but I only hope it is much further in the future when our understanding and ethical maturity are much greater ;)
 
Nature did it over billions of years with a sure and steady hand and the delicate grace that only the patience of evolution can produce ...
You mean like asteroids, acid rain, drought, floods, earthquakes, diseases, etc... that kinda delicate grace? IMO Nature is more reckless as humans, flailing about randomly in some weird attempt to... to what exactly? It certainly hasn't benefited by having humans around, has it? Or is Nature a masochist?
 
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