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Discussion in 'HardForum Tech News' started by Megalith, Dec 30, 2018.
Meh you know what I mean lol!
The RRoD was super easy to spot (bad thermal pads and paste), MSFT was just sprinting to the gate to beat PS3: they either were so rushed in QA they missed it, or more likely, it was considered an acceptable risk. This time round, they should have more time to catch issues.
I think it was just bad QA combined with a case that was designed with form over function. The guts of the 360 are some of the worst I've ever seen in a small form factor device. They knew there was a problem with heat dissipation, but probably considered it acceptable as you say. In his book Robbie Bach talks about how Microsoft wanted to avoid their next console being ugly, as the original Xbox was, so the 360 took a design-centered approach and the case was finalized before the internals were. There were no longterm tests done on thermals and performance, and the issue was caused by the leadfree solder and constant heat cycling done by regular end users. That kind of issue can't be revealed without testing a device over a long period of time.
I'm hoping MS can replicate the Xbox One S and X design for their next console hardware - easily my favourite hardware design this generation. They're kinda boring and minimalistic (sorta NZXT S340-era design for gaming consoles), but that's the way I want my console to look.
With that said, I wouldn't be overly surprised if the original next-gen Xbox design plays it safe with a larger form factor and doesn't get sexy again until later hardware shrinks/revisions.
I take it you started drinking early for New Year's Eve.
I had one instance of little b, fixed it.
Are you claiming that 25 years of hardware trends mean nothing all of a sudden? The trend says the system is going to have 144GB of memory, so I'm trying to be realistic.
Think about the 8GB in these systems today, 5 years after release. In 2025 is having 64 or 128GB of ram in a gaming system completely unrealistic?
What's your prediction? I want to make sure we bookmark this thread.
Yeah, nice try back peddling and saying your prediction is now 2025 for 64 GB when your previous post contradicts this.
Xbox One was released in 2013. You clearly suggested that the PS5/Xbox being released in 2019/2020 would have 64 GB until you got made fun of for such a silly prediction.
I'm not back peddling anything. I made a comparison of current system configurations compared to 5 years ago, as I am 2025 compared to the expected 2020 release of PS5. Look at the context of the comparison in my original quote.
I'm still looking forward to your prediction since you seem to be so confident I'm wrong.
Nobody here is buying the fact that you were trying to make a 2025 prediction when all of the leaks, including the one MENTIONED in this thread, show 2019/2020 release time for PS5/ XBOX '2'. Keep digging that hole.
I will not make a 2025 prediction, but if the next gen is released in 2019/2020, they will have 12-16 GB of vRam with 8-16 GB of system RAM. Go ahead and Bookmark that.
Are you still claiming that you were making a "2025 prediction" after posting this?
The only mention of 2025 in the context of the quote I am making is to compare 5 years after the PS4 release in 2013, which is right now, 8GB of ram is not an unbelievable amount of memory. Therefore in 2025, which will be about 5 years after PS5 expects to launch with the estimated 64GB of ram I an predicting, 64GB will not be that much.
I am not predicting PS5 release in 2025, I am expecting/assuming it will release in 2020 with 64GB of ram.
In 2025, 5 years after launch, 64GB of ram will not be an unimaginable amount of memory in a console. Just like in 2018, 5 years after PS4 launch, 8GB is no longer some unimaginable amount of memory in a console. I bet in 2006 no one predicted 8GB of ram in a console. That's the only point I'm trying to make.
The problem is that RAM is actually MORE EXPENSIVE per byte today than it was when the current gen consoles were being designed ~8 years ago. So the next-gen consoles can't really have more RAM without becoming rediculously Overpriced...
I'm not sure how accurate this link is, but in the middle of 2013 when PS4 started production the price per MB was within a couple cents of today's price.
Keep in mind manufacturers are not basing it on today's price but what they expect memory to be priced at when they start production in mid-/late 2020 if that is when the consoles get released.
Well ok then, there we have it. You are predicting 64 GB of RAM for the PS5 in 2020. So how much vRam are you predicting then?
That still means that 64 GB of RAM will be ~350 dollars BY Itself, even factoring in bulk saving and contract supply pricing. how much do you expect the next gen consoles to cost?
Having the cost of RAM being within cents of what it was 6 years ago means that manufacturers have no headroom to increase the RAM capacity without drastically increasing the price. Essentially, 64 GB of RAM costs more or the same today as it did when Sony and Microsoft were designing consoles last time, and they chose against 64 GB last time.
64GB total. Not sure how they would split it up, but possibly 50/50 (32GB system and 32GB video).
A month back there were rumors PS5 is targeting the $500 price point. Factor in bulk savings as you mentioned, that could leave upwards of $200-$250 for other components. Also, memory prices are expected to drop by 25% in the coming year. That could mean the system memory may be $250 or less of the total system cost factoring in that discount and bulk discounts.
Oh really, now it is your "combined estimate"...
Rather confusing as you were mentioning 8 chips of 8 GB GDDR in this post. Here you predicted 64 GB in vRam alone. So that means you were suggesting even more when combined as the article focuses on not using unified memory any longer.
In any case, 64 GB of any combination for a console is laughable even in 2020.
You know that PS4 use GDDR5 memory even for system memory, right?
I mentioned the chip count as a way to estimate how much memory the systems could theoretically have based on the available density of memory.
Also, I'd be happy for you to point out, specifically, where I claimed the 64GB would be for vRAM alone. If you are basing that off me mentioning GDDR5, see my first sentence. I assume PS5 will use unified memory, just like PS4.
Well that just means you ignored the article and everybody else's post on this thread.
Christ, 64 GB of unified GDD5x/6? $1000+ console for sure.
The other guy and I talked about that a few post up. I have no idea where you're numbers are coming from but they seem way off.
Here's a second source for memory pricing that says today 64GB of GDDR5 is going to run around $300. With the expected 25% price reduction in the coming year, plus increased densities and other factors that drive cost down, I could see 64GB of GDDR5 memory costing at or less than $200 in 2 years. If the rumors of a $500 console are true, that would leave $300 or more for the remaining components, which is completely reasonable to build a console with.
If the rumors are wrong and Sony is going to stick with the $400 price point, than 64GB may be too much and they could do something like 32GB total to fit that $400 price tag. At $500 I think 64GB is reasonable.
Dude at somepoint that much ram is pointless. Its not nearly moving at that rate. No you will not see 64GB Of ram in a console anytime soon. Consoles were just behind in time and they usually always are. Plus consoles are much better managed and optimized for games. So until you start needing 64gb of ram in desktops then wait for another console generation to see it in consoles. Can't just calculate it that way, not how it works. Next step will be 16GB and I am not sure it will go up from there any faster. Not black and white like that.
I am not sure what BOM means, but the chart on the bottom shows $417 for the cheapest GDDR5 ($6.52 * 64). It's already 2019 and the article predicts an end of 2019 early 2020 release so it will most likely release much less than 2 years from now. Even in 2 years, it is doubtful that GDDR5 will be that cheap.
More importantly, they will NOT be using GDDR5 if it is 64 GB as you predict. Why? Because that would mean 50% less bandwidth than even a One X, assuming a 256 bit bus. That would not be very ideal for gaming. (I realize it could use a 512 bit bus, but that is VERY unlikely).
But is that much ram needed in consoles? It seems totally ridiculous amount when they are optimized already for the system specs. Before we see that much ram I would probably say we see more advanced tech like HBCC on steroids. I honestly don't see them spending that much on ram when its not even urgent need. 16 GB should be fine for next generation.
Every console release its the same thing.
Moore's Law is slowing down, both for die-shrinks and for memory increases, at least on the non-enterprise front.
Realistically, I would guess that the total memory amount for the next consoles would be between 12-16GB, hopefully of unified-memory instead of separate RAM and VRAM.
Even the biggest games on PC (Windows/Linux) with high texture mods wouldn't fully utilize 32GB of RAM, let alone 64GB.
I'm not saying this won't happen, as I'm sure it eventually will, but disk storage is going to have to be a lot faster in order to load that massive amount of data for such games - simply put, a HDD would take hours to load the game and even a SATA-III SSD would take more than 5-10 minutes (lots of small files in use).
The bare minimum would have to be NVME-based storage, hopefully with M.2 PCI-E 2.0 4x or 3.0 2x.
I get that there is such a thing as future proofing, but 64GB of RAM (DDR4/5 and/or GDDR5/5X/6/HBM) is extremely costly, and both Sony and Microsoft would never release such a product with such a high price tag for simple future proofing - that simply is not economically or profitably feasible or logical.
I would be shocked if they used more than 16GB of RAM/VRAM/unified, as no modern games even begin to utilize more than that without mods, most of which are 3rd party.
What the hell would a console os/system use 32gb of ram for? Have the entire OS run off RAM? The OS can’t be that big.
1-3GB of RAM, depending on the console, is already strictly dedicated to the OS.
Both console's OS are fairly modest in size, so no, 32GB wouldn't be necessary and would be a waste with modern tech in the current generation of games and/or software.
By 2030, though, 32GB would most likely seem more realistic, especially in the VRAM department if 5K to 8K resolutions become more of the norm at that point.
Except there's still downsides. GDDR has *very* high latency compared to DDR. For GPUs, which need to push insane amounts of bandwidth and run at a relatively long (~16ms) cycle this is a non-factor, but it does degrade CPU memory read latency. And at the end of the day, each resource still endsup with less then they would have had if dedicated pools were used. Either the game makes sacrifices for graphical performance, or the graphical performance is secondary to the game. No matter what, someone gets squeezed.
8GB *shared* between the system and GPU. And when you consider modern desktop GPUs are shipping with 12GB because of the demands of 4k, you begin to understand that consoles are still very RAM limited.
The most likely bet here is 16GB of shared DDR5 for both PS5 and Xbox Next. It breaks with precedent in that 16GB is not as huge a jump as prior gens, but more likely for several reasons:
>16GB memory is cost prohibitive. Even if they can flex massive volume discounts, 32GB DDR5 is going to be well over $100, and Sony/MSFT is decidedly not doing hardware margin loss on consoles like they used to, nor will they price over $500.
>16GB memory gives you diminishing returns, and we're talking consoles here which have never really pushed the envelope on textures -- 16GB (~14GB usable by GPU) is good enough for the foreseeable at 4k
No way new consoles will shoot for 5k or 8k (albeit they may be marketed as "5/8K capable"). That will be for the refresh models, ETA 2025
The next gen of consoles will not be designed for a 10-year longevity, at least not as the top-tier models. We're looking at more like 4-5 years before a refresh
One thing is pretty sure in my view... hardware between the PS5 and Xbox Next will likely be extraordinarily similar compared to prior gens. It's going to be peripherals, software and exclusives that will be the differentiators.
Developer support has dropped off a cliff since the 360 and ps3.
Not buying this.
Unified memory for a console makes far more logistical sense than a split memory pool due to the gaming use-case involved. While the systems do perform various background tasks and games themselves are not exclusively texture data/various graphical buffers, the amount of non-graphics data is a minority. The amount of non-gaming data isn't going to increase that much in between console generations either.
For mass production, GDDR5 makes sense right now but I'd bet a mid cycle revision will move to higher capacity GDDR6 chips. This will mainly be based on GDDR5 production rates at the time and GDDR6 costs. Potentially possible to reduce memory bus width if GDDR6 clocks high enough in comparison to the GDDR5 that ships with the unit.
Who do you think it makes more logistical sense to unify the memory? Because there’s not much non gaming happening in the background? Great split it and give it System Ram that is just large enough plus a little room to grow. Then give the GPU side enough RAM to be happy to hit 4K.
It’s know that Zen cores love faster low latency ram correct? And all GPUs in general enjoy benefits of faster high bandwidth RAM. I don’t see GDDR being of benefit to Ryzen if the rumors are accurate as to it powering the systems. Splitting the RAM pool into DDR4 and GDDR5(x/6/whatever Iunno) makes more sense in getting the most performance out of the parts.
The AMD Fenghuang runs 8 GB of GDDR5 and that is more PC oriented than any of the consoles.
So what? Fenghuang (something I’d never heard of and googling only brings up articles from June and August) is a SoC, which I may be wrong but commonly feature everything including RAM on a single PCB.
Just because it exists (in the Chinese market) doesn’t really give evidence towards the consoles. And just because it’s more PC like doesn’t mean it wouldn’t benefit from having RAM specialized towards the specific tasks. There’s a reason you aren’t plugging 32GB GDDR5 into your motherboard for the CPU to access, and instead use DDR3/4.
Now, I’m not saying it isn’t possible they do go with this method. Obviously they went with it for the current consoles, and to save money/space/power/the whales, they might do it again. Just doesn’t make much sense to me if they want actually maximize what their chosen CPU/GPU are capable of.
Mostly because it is just more resource efficient to run everything off of one memory pool if you can. Having 16 GB of GDDR5 and reserving just 2 GB or so for the O/S (which is all that consoles really need), will be less bottle necked than 8 GB of GDDR5 plus 8 GB of wasted DDR4 and more cost effective than having 16 GB of GDDR5 with additional DDR4. Not to mention would be a smaller package.
There is no "plugging in GDDR5" and it would be a waste of money for normal PC use so I am not sure what you are getting at there.
The One X is actually a very powerful gaming console as is. The biggest bottleneck for higher fps gaming in 1080p is the cpu. I am not sure how much more effective the cpu or any cpu would be for gaming if it had lower latency memory.
Anyone knowledgeable on this?
I’m expecting 16-24GB max. I also expect unified memory but that’s me just keeping in line with Mark Cernys attitude with PS4 development. It could be different, if anyone has not seen it yet go watch “Road to PS4” on YouTube as it’s a good video.
Mark Cerny took the lead again for PS5.
They may have a separate pool of VRAM but I’m thinking they want to make it as seamless as possible for the transition and backwards compatibility.
The only good argument I’ve heard so far is Zen 2 not playing nice with GDDR vs more traditional DDR.
Which is why I suggested enough DDR4 to be adequate, say 2-4GB and then separately 6-12 GDDR5. Giving both major components more of the appropriate memory needed.
I’ll change my example some. There’s a reason GPUs use GDDR5 instead of DDR3/4.
A VERY relevant link for that example. To my knowledge it works some what viceversa for CPUs due to their type of workload.
Yep. The Jaguar APU is a turd of a CPU even back in 2013, at some point even the best CPU will become the bottleneck; however I’m talking about Ryzen, another relevant link for you.
Ryzen scales quite well with faster memory. Hence why I think they might go with a small amount of high speed dual channel DDR4. It brings out the best of the hardware.
The current largest memory chips are 16Gb (DDR4/GDDR6). That's 16 gigabits or 2 Gigabytes. Most current GPUs use 8Gb chips. That includes the 8GB RX480/580/590, the 6GB GTX 1060, the 8GB 1070, 1070 Ti (all GDDR5) and the GTX 1080, 1080 Ti (GDDR5X), and the RTX 2070, 2080, and 2080 TI (GDDR6). The PS4, PS4 Pro and XB1X also use 8Gb GDDR5 chips, and the XB1 uses 8Gb DDR3 chips. FWIW, the GP100, GV100, and Vega all use 8Gb HBM2 dies (4 or 8 per stack and then 2-4 stacks depending on the sku). Fury used 2Gb HBM dies (4per stack and 4 stacks).
8GB (64Gb) or 16GB (128Gb) chips probably won't exist for quite some time.
I believe DDR4 is 4GB minimium and it would be single channel at that. So, I guess you could have 12 GB GDDR5 plus 4 GB DDR4. 6 GB of GDDR5 would be a downgrade from the One X.
It is a good link but it doesn't prove it works vice versa. Obviously DDR4 is a bad idea for vRam.
The last link shows that Ryzen is far more effected by Ram Speed than Ram latency at least up to 3200 mhz in dual channel.
I went back and read again. I think I read about Hynix announcing 8GB DDR5 ram and misread it as GDDR5. So I misread that, and apologize.
Looking at GDDR6 chips, they are still only 8Gb chips, so even then it does seem really impossible to get up to anything more than 12-16GB reasonable in a console form factor, if you factor in additional DDR4/5 for system memory as well.